weather it is

Weather It Is (Life and fall of a snowflake)

2012-03-04T15:20:00.000+02:00

The snow that fell Friday morning was a beautiful snow: the flakes were large and fluffy.
In Gush Etzion, the temperature fell to freezing or below, and the snow accumulated as white powder
on the streets, sidewalks, lawns and gardens. Temperatures at 500 mb were forecast to be near or below -25 C, at 700 mb below -11 C (and as low as -13 C), and at 850 mb at -2 C or below. These conditions are apparently good conditions for growing snow crystals, rather than small hail stones (which we call "sleet," but sleet is really rain drops that freeze on the way down).

In strong wintertime thunderstorms, we often get snow pellets and sleet, and these pellets are not fluffy like the snow we had (made of dendrites). Rather these type of snow pellets grow in strong updrafts and descend in strong downdrafts, and are often a kernal of snow frozen into a rather stiff form of ice. This is most uncomfortable, at least for one who happens to be a "snow-flake."

In contrast, our Friday snow formed in weakly ascending, moist air that had time to form large snowflakes from dendrites.

Predicting snow amounts in such a situation is tricky. I have to mention, though, that no self-respecting snowflake wants to end its life as a raindrop as it falls to ground, which is what happened to many such snowflakes during our last storm, where greater than 150 mm of rain fell. The problem is that the larger the flakes become, the harder it is for them to stay aloft. On the other hand, the larger the flakes the more likely they are to survive the plunge to earth below. So, eventually, these large flakes do decide to take a chance, in the hopes that they will join their fellow comrade flakes on the ground.

You have to understand, though, that while the ice-type snow can fall very fast and coat the ground with ice particles even when the temperature is above freezing. the fluffy like snow falls slowly (due to its low density and large size) and usually melts before it reaches the ground -- unless the surface temperatures are at or below freezing. Sometimes, though, if enough snow melts, the energy required to melt the snow can lead to cooling the ground and near-surface air enough that snow can accumulate. This is when predicting snow amounts becomes very tricky.

In Gush Etzion, it was cold enough that the snow accumulated without melting. In Jerusalem, it didn't, and instead had to freeze the ground first and then due to air temperatures just above freezing the snow became slush in many places. One could say with confidence that there would be more snow in Gush Etzion than in Jerusalem, but it was difficult to say how little in Jerusalem.

Looking ahead in our weather: for a moment it looked like cold air might return at Purim time, but now the majority of ensemble members show that warmer weather is on the way, at least until early next week. So, enjoy the nice Purim weather and dry out a bit too.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Update #8)

2012-03-02T13:12:00.002+02:00

Hi;

The previous post was written a few hours before, but didn't get posted -- sorry.

The temperatures have warmed up a bit. Currently, only light precipitation is indicated, and because the ground has warmed up a bit, it should

help with the roads.

Later this afternoon the air will be cooling off a bit, but only light precipitation is forecast. We'll see how the next update comes in.

The temperatures will warm up a bit tomorrow and a period of rain is forecast for Shabbat.

A storm will approach on Purim day, but may remain far enough north of us to give us only a good dose of rain.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Update #7)

2012-03-02T13:11:00.000+02:00

The latest GFS forecast continues to show cold weather, with a reinforcing shot of cold air

later today.

Periods of snow will continue this morning (mostly in the center), and for this reason travel is not recommended.

However, there should be a short break in the weather (at least based on last night's data), and then

even colder air will come in aloft later in the afternoon. Snow should fall again and there should be

off an on precipitation until Shabbat morning. Shabbat will remain cold.

The IMS is predicting 10 cm of snow in Jerusalem. That would be great, but I am not sure if it will

be cold enough to make it accumulate so much. We'll know more about this with the next update in

a few hours.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Where will it snow?)

2012-03-01T15:52:00.001+02:00

We're looking at the sounding data for Jerusalem, and we see that early tomorrow morning the temperatures at 900 mb will drop just below freezing. However, the surface temperatures are still suppose to be above freezing. This implies that any snow that any (moderate) snow that falls will create at most a slushy accumulation. After a mid-day warm-up, the potential for snow returns in the evening. However, we should mention that there is still some uncertainty in tomorrow morning's forecast. In fact, the GFS ensemble has a range of almost four degrees, with most clustered around -27.5 C at 500 mb. A little "Mazol" might bring the white stuff to Jerusalem.

In contrast, in Gush Etzion, the forecast temperatures are suppose to be at and below breezing during a period of first moderate and then heavy snow. This should lead to a quick accumulation of snow on the ground and roads. There to there should be a bit of a warm-up towards mid-day, but colder air again comes in aloft towards late afternoon. This coupled with additional cooling aloft will raise the chances of snow again.

A warming trend begins on Sunday.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Update #6)

2012-03-01T13:35:00.000+02:00

Heavy precipitation continues to fall, and where it is snowing, it's snowing, and where it's raining, it's raining. The temperatures haven't really changed much since yesterday evening.

However, from around mid-night onwards, the temperatures should start to creep and then fall downwards, and the mixture of snow and rain should change to all snow and accumulate at least several centimeters by morning in Central Israel. The coldest air is forecast for Friday evening, so we would expect additional accumulation on Friday. Jerusalem should also receive at least a light accumulation of snow towards morning.

You can see the snow-map under Maps: "Today's Snow Forecast."

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is Winter Storm Update #5)

2012-02-29T23:58:00.001+02:00

Snow has fallen in Gush Etzion (and northern Israel). In areas such as Efrat, it has accumulated on cars, sidewalks, and streets, but temperatures are just above freezing so that the snow accumulation is quite slushy. Elsewhere, I'd expect to hear (from you) that snow did accumulate.

After a brief lull later tonight, the mixed rain and snow should return in the morning and then transition to all snow sometime in the afternoon. The snow should accumulate first as a slush, but at night into Friday there should be a heavy accumulation of snow (that is, something white and soft, that you can throw). There's still some uncertainty in the forecast of temperatures, so optimistically there will be a lot of snow, less optimistically there will be accumulating snow.

After the snow finishes late Friday or Saturday morning there may be a transition to rain and warmer temperatures.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Correcton: Winter Storm Update #4)

2012-02-29T05:39:00.000+02:00

Our winter storm has arrived and is potentially a very dangerous storm. Moreover, the cold air should arrive in the central part of the country between 2 and 5 P.M, making for a slippery and icy ride home as heavy rain transitions to snow and ice.

Temperatures will be warm to start, and then cool off rapidly -- so it is hard to judge how much of an accumulation will occur with the rain to ice-to-snow, but because the precipitation should come down fast an accumulation is likely.

Tonight, the cold air at upper levels will moderate towards morning and the precipitation should transition to mixed snow and rain, and then rain either late tonight or tomorrow (Thursday).

However, the ensemble forecast is predicting that the strongest winter blast will occur late Thursday into Shabbat. Again, the ensemble is predicting a drop in temperatures to the coldest values we've seen in years. The cold weather will be accompanied by snow (the real white stuff), if this forecast holds up.

Updates should follow, God willing

(I believe that there is an error in the display of the forecasts (at least late this night). See the forecasts for Jerusalem and Efrat below, which indicate heavy wet snow in the mid-to-late afternoon.

Barry Lynn

Efrat

Jerusalem

Wed Feb 29 2012 - 12:00:00	Sprinkles	9.7 °C	5.16	49. %	Strong	SW	0.38	0.62	9.87
Wed Feb 29 2012 - 15:00:00	Heavy Wet-Snow-Rain	4.1 °C	-2.16	87. %	Strong	NW	9.29	9.91	19.16
Wed Feb 29 2012 - 18:00:00	Light Wet-Snow-Rain	3.8 °C	-1.89	85. %	Strong	W	1.44	11.35	20.6
Wed Feb 29 2012 - 21:00:00	Light Wet-Snow-Rain	3.3 °C	-3.04	90. %	Strong	W	2.06	13.41	22.66
Thu Mar 01 2012 - 00:00:00	Light Rain	2.9 °C	-4.20	87. %	Gale	W	1.43	14.84	24.09
Thu Mar 01 2012 - 03:00:00	Moderate Wet-Snow-Rain	3.0 °C	-4.20	46. %	Gale	SW	3.57	18.41	27.66
Thu Mar 01 2012 - 06:00:00	Moderate Rain	3.1 °C	-3.80	50. %	Strong	SW	3.16	21.57	30.82

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Update #3)

2012-02-28T20:11:00.001+02:00

Winter Storm Warning for late Wednesday and Wednesday Night. Winter Storm Watch for late Thursday night and Friday.

The latest forecast is right on schedule with the development of heavy rain bands over the northwest coastal regions, which are moving southward towards the center of the country. Expect these heavy rain bands to arrive over the center during the late night. Tomorrow, over the north, rain will transition to snow in mountainous areas.

Tomorrow, the timing is a bit uncertain (i.e, between mid-afternoon and evening -- well know better tomorrow morning about this), but we expect an extremely heavy precipitation band to sweep into the center part of the country as cold air piles in from the north. This band will probably quickly transition to snow and ice as it associated cold front rides up over the central mountains. The roads will likely become snow and ice covered (and this includes higher locations in Jerusalem as well).

The temperatures should moderate after the passage of the front, and the question is whether just plain rain falls by morning or a mixture of snow and rain.

Thursday should be off-and-on wet, and then -- like a creaking ship freezing in the sea -- the atmosphere will just seem to get colder and colder until rain transitions to snow late Thursday night/early Friday, and lasts into Shabbat morning.

At least that's the forecast for now. Be careful and stay-tuned.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Update #2)

2012-02-28T17:26:00.000+02:00

The latest update continues to show a shift in the trough development. Originally, the main emphasis
was on Wednesday night and Thursday. We're still expecting snow Wednesday evening, but there is a good chance that it will transition into lighter rain or wet-snow/rain by Thursday morning.

The GFS ensemble indicates that cold air builds in again from Thursday evening until late Friday evening, and this cold air may also bring a period of frozen precipitation.

So, in summary: it looks messy: heavy rain tomorrow, and then heavy snow late in the day and/or evening, then rain possibly by morning, and then a mixture of snow and rain turning over to all snow. However, neither period looks as bad as originally thought last night.

From here on in, we need a bit of luck.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Update #1)

2012-02-28T11:33:00.000+02:00

The latest GFS and GFS Ensemble forecasts show a range of -22 C (1 member) to -31 C (two members) with a clustering around -27 C (a bit warmer than yesterday's forecast). It looks like a bit of the cold air we thought might come in tomorrow (Wednesday) evening, night will hold back until Friday, when temperatures have a high probability of being cold enough for snow again.

So, what does this mean for us: the storm will arrive with strong winds and heavy rain (late in the center) Tuesday evening. There is the possibility of rain and hail together tonight, with a thin coating of ice pellets (but nothing that should affect travel -- except for the strong winds). Wednesday will see a sharp turn towards colder weather with snow Wednesday evening/night, lasting into morning. There should be a period of heavy snow in most places. The extra two degrees colder than the last storm should be enough to lead to snow accumulation in many areas of Central Israel (as well as the north). Jerusalem is also a possibility for snow. Because the height levels will be dropping for this storm below 5400 m, snow may fall at even low elevations.

There is a high probability for snow, and preparations should be made.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Dangerous storm! (Will it Snow in Tel-Aviv?))

2012-02-27T23:10:00.000+02:00

The latest GFS and GEFS ensemble forecasts are now out and they provide a chilling indication of what is most likely to be a storm to remember. The GFS and ensemble mean forecast temperatures for Wednesday night are below -30 Celcius at 500 mb, with heavy precipitation also forecast. This will soon be reflected on our weekly forecast pages as well. Moreover, there is the possibility that snow will fall in Tel-Aviv as 500 mb height levels fall below 5400 meters.

This is a potentially very dangerous storm; it's not often that we combine such cold with heavy snow. The storm should continue into Thursday, before tapering down in the afternoon. However, it will remain cold and there is the possibility of another round of heavier precipitation later on Friday into Shabbat.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (What did he mean?)

2012-02-27T15:29:00.001+02:00

For those who are wondering: 500 mb means 500 millibars of pressure. For your reference, the pressure is around 1000 mb at sea-level,

and you have to go up around 5500 m to get there (on a very tall ladder).

The colder it is at 500 mb the better chance for snow (at least here) because it means that the temperature decreases pretty quickly with

height from the surface and this scenario favors thundersnow.

Lastly, an ensemble forecast is a group of forecasts based (in our case) on similar -- but not the same -- initial conditions. In other words,

since there is always some error in the observed weather, we assume that the actual conditions of the atmosphere are not exactly what

we measured. In fact, we change the measurements a bit and then see how this affects the forecast. If you look at the GEFS forecast on the site,

you can see that this can be quite a lot! (At least beyond a couple of days.)

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Ticking Down to Thursday)

2012-02-27T14:14:00.000+02:00

Winter seems to be making a grab at -- well -- winter. For a while it looked like the atmosphere was evolving towards a plain rain, but now a good number of ensemble members are indicating that Wednesday night and Thursday will be our first real snow of the year.

However, anybody in his right mind would not call for Snow on Thursday -- unless he's got a safe place to go when the usual leads to the usual -- as in a rainy day or perhaps some slush on the ground.

In fact, I am specifically not saying it will snow -- no I am not. Rather I am saying that members of the ensemble GFS forecast coupled with the GFS are showing temperatures well below -25 degrees Celcius at 500 mb. What we need is for the ensemble itself to reach a consensus. If, and I repeat "if" this happens then I might -- maybe -- just stick my neck out and say: "yes it will snow, and break out the snow boots and sleds."

But now,

Barry Lynn
P.S. You can see the GFS and GEFS ensemble forecast of 500 mb temperatures on our site (under Forecasts."

Weather It Is (Where did that storm go?)

2012-02-26T21:52:00.000+02:00

That's a good question.

The latest forecasts still show a short period of very cold air moving into our area on Thursday -- and in fact this period of cold air may bring a heavy burst of snow. However, the ensemble forecast is now clustering around a warmer forecast than before, and a glance at the weather maps shows the coldest air plunging southward a bit too far westward.

However, it's only Sunday and we'll see just how much stock we should place in the forecast so far in advance.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (-34 C)

2012-02-24T12:11:00.003+02:00

An update at 4 P.M: the latest 6 GMT update has 15/20 (75%) members showing that it will snow.

While it's true that we have a small, but potentially dangerous storm to content with in the next twenty four hours (i.e, because of the possibility of flash flooding in small streams), one might be excused for looking ahead to mid next week.

I've never seen three of the Global Ensemble members indicate that temperatures will fall below -30 C, and even as low as -34 C. I've never seen -16 C at 700 mb, or -5 C at 850 mb. Right now, 10/20 (50%) are indicating temperatures below -25 C mid-next week.

So, which way will the weather tilt? Will this be the coldest and biggest snow storm in quite a while? Stay tuned until after Shabbat.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Oh, for one degree)

2012-02-23T12:18:00.001+02:00

Our last winter storm was quite wet, and it was a pretty cold winter storm. However, it wasn't nearly as cold as past "real" winter storms that left snow in Jerusalem, and all of Gush Etzion. Instead, one degree made a big difference in snow amounts, from no real snow in Jerusalem (where is was too warm), to real snow in Efrat -- but that left only a mush -- to accumulating snow in Hebron (where it was coldest).

Unfortunately, as global warming makes its inexorable march towards a warmer world -- see www.noaa.gov for the latest surface temperature measurements and news -- snows of past will become less frequent.

On the other hand, the difference between a real snow and just snow is about three or four degrees Celcius, so a real snow is still possible (at least now). In fact, the global ensemble pegs us at about a 25% chance of a real snow sometime next Tuesday. Of course, there is a 75 % chance we'll see just plain rain or nothing at all, but some chance is better than no chance, at least in many things.

Until then, enjoy the nice weather until a weak storm heads our way on Erev Shabbat.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Update)

2012-02-18T22:12:00.002+02:00

I'd be interested to hear how much snow fell in places a bit higher than Efrat, where we had a couple of inches (5 cm) of slush.

Otherwise, temperatures are starting to warm a bit as our winter storm continues into tomorrow. We still have a chance of mixed rain and snow tonight, especially towards morning. We'd need a bit of a weather miracle, though, to make it stick enough to cancel school.

Interestingly, the surface temperature forecast from our highest resolution model was quite, quite, good -- indicating that the temperature would drop to about 1 C last night and it did (but not below freezing, which would have turned a good portion of our 50 mm of rain into bright, white, snow!).

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Warning, Wind Advisory)

2012-02-17T14:39:00.000+02:00

There is still a bit of uncertainty in the forecast, but fortunately this uncertainty is small -- at least for tomorrow (Shabbat).

This afternoon will see a burst of weather activity, as strong storms enter along the northwest coast and move quickly towards the the central part of the country. These storms should bring heavy rain and hail.

There will be a slackening of the precipitation towards midnight, and at this point those of you waiting up to see the first real snowflakes of the year might just feel a bit disappointed. However, our weather models are telling us not to despair: late tonight and tomorrow cold air should sweep in changing the rain/sleet to snow at higher elevations. The best chance in the center for accumulating snow will be from morning until afternoon in Gush Etzion, with the best chance for accumulating snow in Jerusalem in the afternoon. Will the snow stick in Jerusalem -- hard to tell. Like many things in Jerusalem, it's a bit of Mazol.

The precipitation on Shabbat and Motzei Shabbat should be heaviest along the mountain ranges as moisture is lifted and cooled as it sweeps off the sea.

There is a greater than 50% chance that the temperatures will continue to be cold enough again for snow in the center into Sunday morning, and possibly for mixed snow and rain into the afternoon.

After a rise in temperature by mid-next week, the weather outlook turns very uncertain, with both warmer weather and much colder weather possible.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Warning)

2012-02-16T22:27:00.000+02:00

There is a Winter Storm Warning for Friday night and Shabbat for central Israel, the Galilee mountains, and the Golan. A winter weather advisory is in effect for Saturday night and Sunday morning. A winter weather warning for other locations where heavy rain may lead to flooding in low-lying areas and flash floods in streams.

That said, thank you to all who wrote to voice their support for mixing a bit of political-weather humor into the posts. And, thank you for those that wrote otherwise.

I'd really like to say that it will snow, and snow a lot. My best guess at this moment is for several centimeters of snow late Friday night and Shabbat (with much more on the Hermon). The problem is that I have a feeling that I'll toss and turn Friday evening (instead of my usual toss and turn here or there), while I wait for the snow to begin. Then, I'll fall into a fitful sleep, only to dream about a deep white covering on the windows, lawn and fields -- only to wake up to: "why hasn't the snow started yet?"

Oh, the angst to be a weather forecaster (man).

Here's what the best science tells us. It is going to be very cold at 850 mb (about 500 m above the surface of Gush Etzion) -- 1 or 2 C below freezing, and at 700 mb. This will set the stage for temperatures at the surface to fall to freezing and allow for snow/sleet to accumulate on cars, grass, and even the roads. However, at 500 mb it will be borderline for good snow development. Still, the peak of the storm late Friday and Saturday will likely (hopefully) bring in enough cold air to make everything white. An important factor is that it is suppose to remain cold into Sunday afternoon, so the roads should turn slick with ice and driving is not at all recommended, and could be quite dangerous (in locations where it snows). My guess is that school will be cancelled Sunday morning.

Actually, our weather model is predicting an accumulation in areas such as ours, and I'll be able to be more certain as we get closer to the event and enter the time horizon late tomorrow morning of our highest resolution model (with 1.3 km grid spacing).

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Watch)

2012-02-14T19:29:00.000+02:00

Having just gotten word that the United States has led a successful effort to be back a Palestinian effort to freeze us in an eternal spring (see previous post), we can now get back to the weather. Thank you to the United States: home of the free and the brave.

Now, the weather:

One wonders whether a trend is meaningful.

Since yesterday's post, the forecast has firmed up a bit, with a trend towards colder and wetter weather, with temperatures below 0 C at 850 mb, below -10 C at 700 mb, and below -25 C at 500 mb. This combination of temperatures can support good snow development aloft and is cold enough to minimize melting on the way down (at least if one lives above 700 m or so).

Precipitation should develop late Wednesday in the north and then spread southward during the night as cold air and moisture builds in from the Northwest. Initially, the atmospheric column should support snow at only at the highest elevations, but some time Friday night or Saturday morning snow levels should descend and snow should cover the center of the country as well (and of course the northern mountains of the Galilee).

This has the potential to be our first major snow in several years, with heavy rain falling elsewhere in strong winds.

Stay in touch, and hope that this trend towards colder and wetter weather holds up.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Winter Blast)

2012-02-13T12:01:00.001+02:00

We're certainly enjoying some beautiful spring-like weather. However, if the majority of the ensemble forecasts are correct, spring will end by Tuesday evening and then winter will roar back with a vengeance.

However, if the government doesn't agree to the demands of the Palestinian President (Prime Minister?) Abbas, then he is going to go right away to the world weather organization and request a rerun of this week's early weather. So, instead of heavy rain turning over to a period of cold, wet snow, it will stay warm and dry, and beautiful, just like today. Only if the government agrees to withdraw to the old armistice line, agree to evacuate 500,000 plus residents from what might be termed "Green-Line+" will Mr. Abbas agree to drop his petition and allow winter to return as scheduled. As a concession, Mr. Abbas has agreed to leave us the keys for the Old Ford, but he wants us to know that if he ever needs 'em, we'll have to fork over them over as well.

Getting back to the weather, there is a strong indication from the ensemble forecasts that it is going to get very, very (downright!) cold. The problem for snow-lovers is that we really need to have temperatures from 850 mb to 500 mb below certain threshold levels. On the other hand, it's going to be so cold at 850 mb and 700 mb that we might just squeak out something solid, and something to throw, and maybe even to sled on. Moreover, some of the ensemble members are indicating temperatures cold enough for a real snow sometime Friday night into Sunday.

In any case, it looks like at least the cold will be the story, which fits in just right with Mr. Abbas turning an official (rather than unofficial, but nevertheless obvious) cold-shoulder to a negotiated peace.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Stuck in Reverse)

2012-02-09T14:37:00.000+02:00

One can't say that winter is over. On the other hand, what winter there is (and there is a lot of it) is centered over western Europe, with an extension eastward to our north.

Just below this eastward extension is located our part of the world. And that's all the story: we get the dregs of winter, but weather neither too wet or too cold. In fact, as the system to our west strengthens, warm air will be drawn northward and it will feel quite like spring (except in spring, it sometimes feels like summer).

The spring like temperatures will be short-lived, though, before winter makes a partial comeback. However, it's not enough of a comeback to really make a difference in the Kinneret water level standings, so all we can do is hope that the pattern will shift for the latter half of February (which has an extra day this month!).

Barry

Weather It Is (Going, going, gone...)

2012-02-02T20:17:00.000+02:00

What's that? The winter.

Horace Greeley said: "Go West," and that's what winter is doing.

The weather pattern is still cold -- at least the weather has not gone north to look for the northwest passage, but it has shifted to the west.

What does this mean for us? It means that an area of low pressure situated to our west will pull plenty
of warm (spring-like?) air northward into our area, and the heavy and persistent rains of this past month (which, by the way, set a record for number of rainy days in January) will be -- like the month itself -- a thing of the past.

Of course, we're all optimists, and winter just might make a comeback late next week. On the other hand, it might not, and then where will we be?

Perhaps rooting for the "Mets." "Let's go Winter, let's go winter!"

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Tantalizingly Close)

2012-01-31T11:32:00.000+02:00

The weather remains -- the weather, wintry that is.

Yesterday, though, was a bit of an anomaly. There was sub-tropical stream of air that moved across Africa and brought a light rain as far south as Eilat, and light to moderate rain eventually throughout the country.

Today, though, the air has a definite chill, and it colder and moisture is on the way for Wednesday. Because the temperatures at 500 mb are going to be below -25 C, snow should form at higher altitudes and in heavier convective storms mix all the way to the surface. Hence, there could be a coding of snow at the highest elevations, including central Israel, but don't expect it to last long as lower atmospheric and surface temperatures will struggle to drop below freezing.

Looking further ahead, cold air remains anchored over Europe, but the center of the coldest air mass shows no signs (yet) of moving in our direction.

Getting it to snow here is sort of like trying to make peace with the Palestinians. Of course, everyone wants snow and everyone wants peace. The problem is this: we're it to snow here (west of the old Green-Line) we would be happy to share it with our Palestinian neighbors (east of the old Green-Line).
However, they (i.e, the Palestinians) would not be willing to share it with us. Basically, they want all the snow to themselves. Hence, peace for them doesn't mean sharing the land, it means taking the whole piece, whether that is piecemeal through negotiations or through our own unilateral withdrawals. Unless we hold steadfast, they'll take the land and us a piece at a time, until they've got the whole pie.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Continues)

2012-01-25T11:37:00.000+02:00

It's a bit strange writing a header that says: "winter continues." However, when I was a child (or more accurately: prior to my "Aliyah) there used to be winter every year. However, one should keep in mind our forefathers had to leave Eretz Israel because of drought, and Joseph forecast a seven year drought (or at least a seven year cycle of wet and dry weather). One should also take note that the global rise in temperatures (most likely associated with greenhouse gases) is extenuating any periodicity in the drought cycle.

Fortunately, the government has finally invested in desalination plants so we have (Thank God) enough water to pass the dry (rainy) season.

Yet, this winter is what we would consider normal. It's sort-of-cold (although not today) and its frequently wet (known as "rainy"). There is an area of high pressure located at the lower levels of the atmosphere, situated on the western side of an upper level trough. This is funneling cold air southward. There is also a fairly active southern jet stream leading storms frequently along the southern boundary of the northern trough.

Fortunately, no change in the general weather pattern is seen. The question is: how much of the cold air will be drawn into these frequently passing systems. Early this week, there was enough cold air for a change over to wet snow/graupel in central Israel, and snow at the higher elevations, but the next storm late this week looks to be not quite as cold (stay tuned). Still, next week may bring a greater likelihood of frozen precipitation.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Was that a snowflake I saw?)

2012-01-22T14:57:00.001+02:00

Good Afternoon:

After a morning of heavy rain mixed with snow, rather strong thunderstorms are moving inland off the sea bringing an ice mix of snow, sleet and rain. There's been a light covering of ice here in Gush Etzion, and highly elevated areas in the north are receiving snow -- especially the Golan.

Temperatures should remain above freezing, however, keeping the roads mostly ice free. Tonight, temperatures should moderate as the storm slowly winds down.

The weather will remain cool (and some would consider it cold) until the end of the week when another storm approaches from the west. The exact track of the coldest air associated with this storm will determine if we get just plain rain, or a rain/snow mix again.

Barry Lynn

2012-01-19T19:49:00.000+02:00

Winter continues, and even colder air is forecast to move in Thursday night and Friday. However, the cold air closer to the surface is not supported by especially cold air aloft, nor is this system especially moisture laden.

Hence, the forecast is for unseasonably cold weather, with a chance of light freezing precipitation.

By the way, for those worried about bursting solar water heater pipes. It is not enough to keep the water running -- because when the solar collectors are not heating, water does not flow through them anyway. Instead, one needs to attach or close an already attached valve that is located between the water tank and the heater. Keep this valve closed from just before the time the temperature drops below freezing until after the sun (the next morning) has warmed the collectors and melted the water within. This is necessary to prevent a pressure buildup in the morning when the sun heats any remaining water within, but the ice prevents an outlet for this water.

Looking further ahead: there are indications that winter will continue, and very cold air is headed our way early next week. In this case, the coldest air will be found at higher levels, hence, there is the possibility of snow, melting as it descends, but possibly reaching the ground at the higher elevations in the form of wet snow.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Brrrr)

2012-01-18T17:33:00.000+02:00

Winter continues, and even colder air is forecast to move in Thursday night and Friday. However, the cold air closer to the surface is not supported by especially cold air aloft, nor is this system especially moisture laden.

Hence, the forecast is for unseasonably cold weather, with a chance of light freezing precipitation.

By the way, for those worried about bursting solar water heater pipes. It is not enough to keep the water running -- because when the solar collectors are not heating, water does not flow through them anyway. Instead, one needs to attach or close an already attached valve that is located between the water tank and the heater. Keep this valve closed from just before the time the temperature drops below freezing until after the sun (the next morning) has warmed the collectors and melted the water within. This is necessary to prevent a pressure buildup in the morning when the sun heats any remaining water within, but the ice prevents an outlet for this water.

Looking further ahead: there are indications that winter will continue, but the coldest air is suppose to be located further to the west, and there may be a bit of a warm-up late in the week.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Will It Snow?)

2012-01-15T03:17:00.000+02:00

A good Sunday morning to you.

The weather map continues to look very stormy. Cold air remains anchored over eastern Europe and Western Russia. Storms pivoting around this area of cold air continue to bring much needed rain.

However, even though it is cold, it isn't that cold -- i.e, cold enough for snow at any locations but the highest, highest mountains. So, just a cold rain will continue in most places.

Still, snow springs eternal (or is that hope?). The long range weather map continues to show that snow is a possibility, but so far all the ingredients (i.e, really cold air at the surface and aloft, combined with a lot of Mediterranean moisture) have not fallen into place.

Tonight I made a new pizza recipe. One part of the recipe was actually to let the dough rest. I admit that it is a bit late and perhaps the dough was tired, but it got me thinking: maybe the weather is tired -- tired of hearing about how it is going to snow, True, I've been playing down the potential for snow, but others haven't, and this can definitely getting tiring. So, my suggestion is: let it rest -- no more talking about it, writing about it, or speaking about it. Let's just let the snowflakes fall if they will -- let it be a complete surprise (now, that would be fun!).

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Very Stormy)

2012-01-13T02:43:00.000+02:00

A very powerful storm is organizing itself in the eastern Mediterranean. Its source of energy: a very, very cold mass of air located to our north. This cold air mass (or large trough of low pressure) has been nearly stationary for a week and is suppose to persist at least until the end of next week.

Very cold air at the upper levels of the atmosphere will probably trigger strong convective storms tonight and tomorrow, and heavy rain associated with this system will persist into Sunday. Expect the wind to blow, and the a cold wind to blow. Because it's very cold aloft, expect some of the rain to fall as heavy graupel (or hail), and even coat the ground in spots.

Looking into next week, the very cold air mass should drift further south, and temperatures should fall to freezing or below. Right now, there is a 60% chance of a wet snow Tuesday into Wednesday.

Enjoy the heavy weather, but stay away from power lines, trees, and open areas -- especially during lightning storms.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter)

2012-01-09T13:52:00.000+02:00

Good Afternoon:

Winter is on the way, and this is the kind of winter we all remember -- although not so well. There is actually a taste of it today, and rain is falling up north, mostly along the coast.

For the first time in quite a long time, very, very cold air has become anchored to our north and
this trough of cold air will spin up several storms during the next week or so. Some folks
are talking about snow in the near future, but this is really most likely over the Hermon.

However, rain should fall, and rain should fall. One might actually really get wet if one ventures out. So, now is the time to buy yourself, your children (and for some: your dog) a good raincoat and rain-boots or dog-boots. If you've got a cat, time to clean out the litter box.

Looking a week plus out, there is some indication that this mammoth area of cold air might slip southward, and then a rain coat wouldn't be quite enough against the "elements." But, this is a ways a way, even if the rain isn't.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Cold and Wet)

2012-01-05T16:26:00.000+02:00

The weather is going to get stormy, and it's going to get wet. In fact, the next 10 days look wet, which is a bit ironic because the latest seasonal forecast indicates a drought for our area.

The first storm will sweep across our area in the next few days, and then by mid-week it should be followed by an even colder (and wet) storm. Hopefully, the Hermon will be able to open after this is all said and done -- as they say.

Interestingly, there is forecast to be extremely, extremely cold air situated over far eastern Europe and western Russia during the time of the second storm. If some of this cold air breaks further south, there could be the first snow. Of course, that a big if -- but the rain isn't.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Getting Wet)

2011-12-31T20:21:00.000+02:00

Good Evening:

Low pressure is scheduled to move eastward across the Mediterranean during the next few days. It's suppose to bring a steady and moist supply of air by tomorrow evening, with rain spreading south Sunday night. The system is suppose to last a few days, so you might want to check your rain boots, rain jackets, and rain hats. It's always nice when it rains for a few days at a time.

Looking further ahead, we dry out a bit, but then winter weather should return late in the week and again last a few days. We're around 80 mm of rain here in the Gush and this and the next rain will hopefully push us over 100 mm for the year so far. We several hundred more, though, to approach normal!

Thank you to all for sending the birthday wishes!

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Continues)

2011-12-26T19:56:00.000+02:00

There was quite a lot of rain in many places. For instance, 75 mm was reported in Jerusalem and 56 mm in Efrat (Gush Etzion). There was 80 mm on the Hermon. It really was nice to have a prolonged period of rain.

Of course, one wonders what will be next. Looking at our crystal weather maps we see another storm on the way just in time for Shabbat. There will be a quick warm-up ahead of this next system, but it should bring plenty of moisture and cold-air. In fact, it really will feel like winter, and there is likely to be snow on the Hermon and possibly on the highest mountain peaks elsewhere - as the storm continues into early next week.

Tomorrow is my Birthday; this weather column started about 10 years ago -- but I'm older than this.

Happy Chanukah,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Change)

2011-12-20T21:39:00.000+02:00

After a string of beautiful days, the weather will change.

Up to now, we've been between systems. Strong low pressure has been located to our east, while strong high pressure has been situated to our north. Depending on which was stronger, the winds have either been from a chilly northerly direction, or a warmer easterly direction -- like the last few days.

This will all change in the next couple of days, as a deep trough of low-pressure digs down south and then spins up over our region on Shabbat into early next week. This looks like to be a major rain event, our first in quite some time, and a chilly one two.

The system will pass in a few days, but the temperature will remain cool and showers will be possible from time to time.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter there, everywhere, but not here

2011-12-03T21:47:00.000+02:00

Okay, so it does feel like winter. But, that's because winds continue to blow clockwise around high pressure situated to our north. So, the days (except for today when it warmed up a bit) have been pretty cool, and the nights even cooler. However, the storminess, and there's plenty of that -- has been happening elsewhere.

In fact, that high pressure situated to our north is a pretty good blocking high pressure system. By the end of the week low pressure is suppose to move our way and maybe even bring some rain. However, it fizzles as it approaches, and the rain may come to what appears to be a premature end.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Sleigh Bells Are Ringing)

2011-11-18T10:13:00.000+02:00

Good Friday Morning, Erev Shabbat:

Cold air continues to stream southward and this general weather pattern will continue for the next few days. This cold air is helping to strengthen and build-up a "real" winter storm -- one that lasts more than a few hours -- actually a few days. Rain will be widespread form the north into the Arava.

Looking ahead to next week. Our weather depends on the possible phasing of the northern Jet-Stream with the more sub-tropical Jet-Stream over our area. Very, very cold air is forecast to plunge southward during mid-week. If a weak storm moving across the Mediterranean is able to couple with this cold air, there will be another major winter storm.

Stay tuned -- Shabbat Shalom.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter on the way)

2011-11-12T21:24:00.000+02:00

Good Saturday evening:

After an absolutely beautiful Shabbat (Saturday), which was really part of a string of beautiful days, winter is on the way. It's actually on the way quite a bit earlier than last year, when winter finally came in a ferocious windy storm that blew tiles off roofs, as well as helping to spread the largest and deadliest fire in Israel history. That storm actually ended with a bit of snow in the center and more in the north, but this one will probably be just plain rain everywhere. Still, it looks to be quite a bit of rain, so now is the time to unfurl the umbrella and check children's boots -- as a rainy day is almost as fun as a snowy day -- if you have a good rain coat and waterproof boots.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter on the way)

2011-11-02T18:07:00.000+02:00

As we take a look at our forecast maps, we get a strong indication that winter is on the way, and even looking forward the weather maps looks more and more like winter.

Of course, the pages of the calender are turning and we should be headed towards winter. Yet, I can remember many a past winter season where winter just didn't seem to come. What was winter seems to come less frequently, even though severe weather seems to occur more often -- consistent with global climate change predictions.

A fairly strong winter storm should approach tomorrow and spread rain tomorrow from the north to the center (by sometime tomorrow night). It looks like to be our first general and real winter rain, so it's a good idea to seal up any holes or leaks that might be leftover from last winter or summer months.

Of course, some people's leaks are really holes -- holes from missiles fired from Gaza. My guess is that certain European countries must sell rain or water damage insurance, since they keep telling us that we should open up the sea-border so the Gazans can import larger and more powerful missiles.

I find it odd that the missiles have stopped while we contemplated a ground assault (through the mud, apparently). But, like the upcoming storms and rains, the calm will end for this reason or that, and then we'll contemplate again (and the Europeans will say: don't build houses -- build missiles instead.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The weather changes, but...)

2011-10-30T15:26:00.000+02:00

Well, actually, the weather is not changing that much. It's pretty much a few clouds here, a sprinkle there, as the weather patterns stagnate. Looking a bit farther ahead, there might be some rain late in the week, but there is only a 25% chance that it will evolve into something substantial.

I think the chances of there being a significant rain is higher than the chance that our leadership will ever change, or at least change their standard response to the war of missiles being made on our cities from Gaza. A ceasefire is no substitute for a strong and decisive policy; missile attacks should not be treated like car accidents (which we tolerate far too many of); trying to create deterrence by killing a few terrorists is no substitute for winning the war; and the iron dome system should be our last line of defense, not our first. Please someone explain to Mr. Netanyahu that "Bomb-Empty-Buildings-Barak" (BEBB) should be put to pasture.

Unlike the weather, missile attacks are not acts of nature, and our shelter rooms should be used for storage of goods, not people.

Barry Lynn

Weather Heading Towards Winter?

2011-10-26T08:43:00.000+02:00

Updated Wednesday Morning, 26 October, 2011

The weather is turning a bit more winter like, and rain is forecast in the north today. Greater than 10 mm will likely fall in many inland and northern mountainous areas, including in the vicinity of the Kineret.

However, the long range forecasts are showing below normal precipitation amounts. Considering that we just said the prayer for rain, one wonders if we're not quite up to snuff. For instance, in religious neighborhoods, there were reports of objects being thrown at police and those protesting against new gender segregation rules on public streets in the "religious" neighborhoods (which is actually illegal).

On the other hand, this morning one of my Mangoes rolled off my spaghetti (box) and down the sidewalk. How do I know this? Because one young lady made an extra effort to run after me (I was jogging) to return the Mango. So, score one for a rainy winter.

Looking ahead here -- at least a week ahead -- the weather pattern is sort of static, which means that it might be good for local showers from place to place. So, keep that Umbrella handy.

Barry Lynn

Weather Sliding Along

2011-10-14T15:44:00.000+02:00

The weather is certainly nice, and it looks like it will stay that way.

The weather pattern is also quite active, with storms sliding by to our northwest. However, winds rotating around low pressure to our east are preventing any of these storms from moving into our area.

Hence, the perfectly nice fall weather we've been having should continue, although as the weather pattern transitions a bit eastward cooler Autumn weather will be felt over most of the country.

Enjoy the holiday,

Barry Lynn

Just about perfect

2011-10-14T15:34:00.002+02:00

The weather is just about perfect, as we're poised between the winter to come and the summer that was.

Winter time-like storms continue to move by to our northwest, and in fact the weather pattern is pretty active. Yet, winds blowing around low pressure situated far to our east are preventing these storms from moving in to our area.

The weather pattern will slide slowly eastward and the cooler temperatures of winter will make themselves felt -- but not to coolly (so to speak).

Barry Lynn