Good Morning:
Today Wednesday and tomorrow Thursday could see strong thunderstorms in areas that are prone to flooding, including the Dead Sea Basin and Arava/Negev.
Our forecast model's resolution has been degraded (due to budgetary considerations), so it might not show these strong storms. One can access more accurate forecast maps here: https://ims.gov.il/he/ModelMapPanel
You can also find my Blog discussions here: https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/author/barry-h-lynn/
Good morning: Temperatures today are quite pleasant. During the coming week, temperatures should rise by several degrees, reaching the mid 30s C in many locations. Friday and Shabbat will likely be the hottest days of the week. Temperatures are likely to remain in the mid 30s for the first few days of the following week. Shabbat Shalom.
Good evening:
Just nice weather is on tap for our area during the next couple of weeks. Not cool and not exceptionally hot.
It hasn't really rained very much since March, which means that we never really had any springtime tropical systems (e.g., Red Sea Troughs). We had lots of dust, but just not much moisture to go along with it.
There is a big vote in the Knesset this evening. Rather than working with the government to pass laws that it favors, the Likud has decided that it will burn the house down instead, as debate begins over the reenactment of a law that provides citizen rights to Israelis living in "Area C" of Judea and Samaria.
Only the Likud can save us from the Likud.
Be well,
Next time, I might write to you from Jordan,
Barry Lynn
Good afternoon:
The weather tomorrow (Tuesday) will be downright nasty -- extremely hot and dusty. Because winds in the lower atmosphere will blow from the northeast and/or east, conditions will be ideal for the heat to extend from coastal areas eastward to the hottest locations within the Dead Sea Basin.
The heat will be short-lived, though. The pressure system bringing our hot weather will move to our east and be replaced by a trough of cooler weather. In fact, moisture building in the lower atmosphere could bring some showers on Wednesday (Yom Zikoron) and Thursday (Yom Ha'Azmahut). Temperatures will not be of the beach variety, but parks might be enjoyable so long as one brings a windbreaker (and any sprinkles remain scattered about).
The cool weather should last into mid-Shabbat, and then hotter weather returns early next week, only to be replaced again by cooler weather towards the end of the week.
Otherwise, it's been a tough few days. First, my wife complained about the weather -- consistency is important in life she told me. And, the weather (by implication, meaning me) has been hardly consistent. Then, I dreamed I was visiting my home town ahead of a forecast snowstorm. In the end, the forecast was off, and it snowed just a bit, and no matter how hard I tried to photograph it, I just couldn't make it seem like a lot of snow.
Of course, I realize that we're about to head into a heatwave, but my biggest fear as a forecaster is not predicting how hot it will be, but predicting how much snow will fall. So, when my wife -- so to speak -- put me in my place, it led to a nighttime of weather related nightmares.
It's not just my professional life that causes me trouble, but speaking Hebrew is still not my forte. When we were married, she gave me 5 years to learn Hebrew, well, and she's still waiting. The other day she sent me to buy a toilet seat. In Hebrew, the name is a "Asla" -- אסלה). I don't have much of an ear -- so my wife tells me, and I always thought the word for toilet seat was "Azlan" (lazy person) -- עצלן). So, when I arrived at the store and asked for an Azlan, the clerk looked at me a bit strangely. First, he said they don't have any of those, and if I needed an Azlan I might find one in the park. I couldn't figure out why he said that so I asked if they had a "Sherutim" (a bathroom). I thought, I'll just show him. But, he was having none of that and his response was Azlanim generally don't give good service, so why bother. Finally, I convinced him to call home to ask my wife. From what I could tell, she said that while I might be Azlan, what we needed was an Asla.
The good news is that I was able to install such a device in our bathroom, and that it even closes by itself. So, I might -- at times -- be lazy, but I can still be useful.
Barry Lynn
Good afternoon:
It's cold in Siberia and it's going to be cold here, too. Of course, cold is relative. On the other hand, for a week in mid-March, you can imagine that folks would wonder where is Spring?
Well, the point is that it's cold in Siberia and there's a pipeline of cold air headed our way. Temperatures will drop further today in the layer of atmosphere just above the sunlight heated planetary boundary layer, and then further Monday night and Tuesday. In fact, the temperatures will be more typical the coldest of any of January's days (see Tuesday's minimum temperature forecast map).
At the same time, an upper level trough of (cold) low pressure will nose it's way southwestward into northwest Syria. The counterclockwise flow of cold air around the low pressure trough will bring moisture on shore, while the extreme cold keeps much of it as snow in the higher elevations of Jerusalem and surrounding areas. Right now, our model shows snow late Monday night in Tuesday afternoon, with the best time for an accumulation before too late Monday morning (the cloud-shielded midday sun will probably act to melt the snow). Depending on just how far west the upper trough makes it, will determine if the snow continues into the evening, and accumulates some more.
Right now, we're right on the edge temperature wise, in terms of an accumulation. What isn't in doubt is the cold. Darn those mittens and hats, and make sure your jacket buttons are all accounted for.
Barry Lynn
Good evening:
We'll be on the edge of an intense storm situated to our north. Cold air sweeping around the storm will bring us a real chill Thursday and Friday, with a bit of rain as well.
This storm was forecast several days back to bring a prolonged period of cold and precipitation, but as time evolved, the forecast became less cold and less rainy. Still, Thursday will be quite windy in the late morning and afternoon . This will make for very cold wind chill temperatures.
Temperatures should rebound nicely early next week -- and then all bets are off. Or, perhaps all bets are on for a potential Purim snowstorm. As noted by our "Israel Winter Weather" member, Yaakov Cantor, it did snow on Purim, but mostly during the colder decades of the 60s and 70s. It snowed the day before Purim in 1987.
The reason we mention this potential storm is that the global models are hinting towards an unusually cold period during the second week of March, which given that we're about 10 days off -- might mean something more than just some joke told during a Purim Spiel.
Of course, I won't tell my wife or my daughter. They've both turned against me. True, my wife pretended to like snow when we first met (and even built a small snowman with me), but either half of a new couple seems to like just about anything, so long as they really like the other half. But, with time, that infatuation for all things the other half wears off a bit, especially when it comes to cold and snowy days (for a person born near the beach).
What really gets me is that my oldest daughter -- the one who asked the question: "can it snow at Hanukkah time," and hence was directly responsible for bringing our massive December 2013 snowstorm to our mountainous terrain -- has also turned against me. On our morning walks all she speaks about are warm summer days and how she misses them.
So, here's my advice: before you marry, be sure to ask the important questions -- after all, kids take after their parents.
Be well, and stay tuned,
Barry Lynn
