Weather It Is (A Real Rain!)

Good Afternoon:

A real winter storm is on its way.  What we would term a "Cyprus-Low" is forecast to form in the next few days bringing a two or three day period of rain to our area.  It may not be October, but we're still pretty early in November and it is very nice to see the weather map predict our first rain (and a lot of rain at that!).

Of course, several weeks ago the weather map also showed a period of rain, but the forecast evaporated with the rain (that never came).

The rainy weather should be followed by cooler weather and then a more tropical system may impact our weather towards mid-next week.

By that time, we'll probably know who will be the President of the USA.  Based on the forecasts (and even forecast ensembles) Mr. Obama should win again -- and become President Obama once again. Like we hope for a good rainy season each year, we can only hope that the President Obama we've seen more recently is the real Obama, and that he won't return to the previous incarnation (the one that made our Prime Minister take out the trash before he could come in for a visit).  How rude!

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The State of the Weather)

Good morning:

For quite some time, the real action has been elsewhere.  In fact, other than the Khassam Missile or two, there hasn't  been any real weather to speak of.  Fortunately, our government will be spending a rather hefty sum of money to build Khassam Missile shelters to protect against these unplanned and unforecast events.

The good news is that we might have some other types of weather soon, including the wet kind.  The weather pattern is finally becoming a bit more active, and it just may be active enough to bring our first real rain.  Looking further ahead, a much stronger storm might approach us a week hence.  However, I tend to put less stock in these long range forecasts than I do in a forecast for:  partly cloud with a 10% chance of large missiles.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Headed Down)

Good Evening:

The summer is coming to an end.  Cooler air is moving in behind a weak front, and cooler air will continue to flow in over the next several days.

With the cooler air will come increasing amounts of moisture.  There isn't any big storm shown on the horizon, but weak low pressure will develop and then meander over the eastern Mediterranean.
Rain is on the horizon.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (That Wasn't)

Good Evening:

Mid last week, the forecast for this week was for steady rain -- all week.  However, by Friday the weather forecast had changed dramatically from rainy to sunny, and now it is suppose to be summer-like next week!

So, what happened?  My guess is that we had the same problem all the Whos down in Whoville had when they just weren't making enough noise. There was one slacker -- one child actually -- who just wasn't making any noise.  Likewise, when it came to Monday's prayer for a rainy winter, someone dropped the ball -- someone just didn't pray loud enough to bring the rain.

Of course, I don't really know what happened, but one can look at our ensemble (GEFS) forecasts to see just how many forecast ensemble members are predicting a change in the weather.  The greater the number, the more likely our weather will change as predicted.  Right now, most ensemble members are predicting it will be getting quite a bit warmer, at least for the next week to ten days.

That's it -- as our rainy weather slides by to our northwest and only minimally is forecast to impact the far north.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Hold on to your Skoch!)

Good Morning:

A quick moving "Sharav" like system will move quickly from south to north today, bringing with it some wind and a period of rain.  The rain should develop this morning over the south and then spread into the center and north in the late afternoon and evening, respectively. There will be some left over showers tomorrow, but the rest of Sukkot should be nice.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Hot and then Rain?)

Good Morning:

The weather was certainly delightful -- it was in the mid to upper 20s here in the Jerusalem Mountains.  Hence, it was a great day for fasting on Yom-Kippur -- even taking a walk.

There certainly is a lot of hot air at the UN meeting, and it's quite disturbing the words spewing forth from the lips of the Iranian President.  My question is: when he lies does he believe them?

Mirroring what is going on there, our weather is going to get quite hot during the next few days as low pressure to our east blows hot air our way.  However, a strong cool front will move eastward into our area on Sunday or Monday and it is forecast to bring showers t for the beginning of Sukkot.  Will it be a wash-out? Stay tuned.

The inclement weather should pass in time for most of Sukkot to be wonderfully mild and sunny.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Boy, it's hot!)

Good Afternoon:

Having just taken a very quick stroll out to the sidewalk, I can certainly attest that it feels hot.  I can imagine that there is a large power consumption as folks use both their ovens and air conditioners prior to the start of Rosh HaShanah.  The hot weather will persist through the holiday, as hot air flows our way around low pressure situated to our east.

However, by the stroke of Midnight at the end of the holiday, even the hot weather will wilt and a cool front should push in from the west.  As time goes on, high pressure may even set-up to our north, which will lead to an even more refreshing cooling, just in time to fast for Yom-Kippur.

I won't be publishing any blogs that suggest that there seems to be a general reaction among Muslims: when someone criticizes "them" for having violent tendencies, they get all hot under the collar (i.e, take offense), and then violently riot.  Living here in the Mid-East has done quite a lot to dissuade me from my liberal and all-accepting tendencies I had while growing up.  The irony is that there are quite a few Muslim leaders who quite frequently refer to the Jews as the "Sons of Pigs and Dogs," but we don't let their wind ruffle our hair.  I guess that with all their platitudes about how they're the "ones," they don't really believe it -- otherwise, why take offense from someone who doesn't rate the effort.

Hopefully, with the advent of fall, tempers will cool a bit.

L'Shanah Tova!

Barry Lynn