Good Evening:
Donald Trump can win the presidential election and it can snow when temperatures are warmer than -25 Celsius at 500 mb. Last night there were periods of snow in Gush Etzion and snow showers in Jerusalem. In Efrat, we had a late night inch of snow, while in Jerusalem a mix of graupel and snow in the middle of the night left a dusting. The key was that it was quite cold at 700 mb (around -12 C), and at 850 mb (-2 C). Temperatures dropped closed to zero in Gust Etzion during the snowfall.
Tonight the rain will come to an end, but very cold air is moving in at 850 mb. This could cause freezing of some road surface late at night and early morning, making for dangerous driving conditions -- so care must be taken!
The weather will warm a bit ahead of our next system, which should arrive Monday night. This may bring some showers, strong winds, and snow on the Hermon, with temperatures in the lower single digits. This will be followed by even colder air from Wednesday into Friday.
It appears to be a stormy time and a stormy week, but the global ensemble forecast does not show a lot of precipitation, so the total amounts of rain (or snow) will not (as of yet) be very large.
Barry Lynn
Saturday, January 28, 2017
Friday, January 27, 2017
Weather It Is (Stormy Weather, Severe Winds, and Possible Snow)
Good Morning:
The wind will gust gale force or higher as the day nears its end. The day will also be marked by periods of rain.
Below zero temperatures at 850 mb will arrive this evening, and precipitation should intensify as it does. Our latest one kilometer high resolution run shows some light snow accumulation in Gush Etzion and the mountains north of Jerusalem, with moderate snow amounts in the area of Safed, and heavy snow on the Golan.
Yesterday, we ran our forecast using the coldest member of the ensemble, which produced a very light coating of snow in the Jerusalem area (including temperatures near freezing). Today, we used the GFS forecast, which is about a 1/2 degree warmer than the GEFS mean. So, there is still room for a light accumulation of snow in Jerusalem.
The cold weather will last into Sunday, which will be followed by a quick warm-up.
The latest GEFS shows a majority of 850 mb temperatures falling quite a bit below zero from the first of February to the 5th of February (or from about Wednesday to Sunday of next week and after). Several members also show upper air temperatures falling to critical "snow-levels" as well.
We've heard the words "snow possible" so many times this year that we should be forgiven for showing a bit of skepticism. Well, there are judges in Jerusalem, and they may just rule that this time it will snow (the possible becomes probable, and then actual).
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
The wind will gust gale force or higher as the day nears its end. The day will also be marked by periods of rain.
Below zero temperatures at 850 mb will arrive this evening, and precipitation should intensify as it does. Our latest one kilometer high resolution run shows some light snow accumulation in Gush Etzion and the mountains north of Jerusalem, with moderate snow amounts in the area of Safed, and heavy snow on the Golan.
Yesterday, we ran our forecast using the coldest member of the ensemble, which produced a very light coating of snow in the Jerusalem area (including temperatures near freezing). Today, we used the GFS forecast, which is about a 1/2 degree warmer than the GEFS mean. So, there is still room for a light accumulation of snow in Jerusalem.
The cold weather will last into Sunday, which will be followed by a quick warm-up.
The latest GEFS shows a majority of 850 mb temperatures falling quite a bit below zero from the first of February to the 5th of February (or from about Wednesday to Sunday of next week and after). Several members also show upper air temperatures falling to critical "snow-levels" as well.
We've heard the words "snow possible" so many times this year that we should be forgiven for showing a bit of skepticism. Well, there are judges in Jerusalem, and they may just rule that this time it will snow (the possible becomes probable, and then actual).
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Thursday, January 26, 2017
Weather It Is (Winter Weather Warning/Snow/Cold Advisory)
Good Evening:
The storm is upon us and it will be fierce.
The winds will gust to 90 km an hour along the coast and 80 km in the central and northern mountains. In the Golan, there will be gusts above 100 km/h. The high winds are expected tonight into late Friday night.
The largest amounts of rain will fall in the far north (> 100 mm) and in the area of the central mountains (50 to 75 mm, or even higher in localized areas).
Temperatures will fall to about freezing Friday night and Shabbat, when a coating of snow will be possible in the central mountains, especially after candle-lightning. Much more snow should fall in the Galilee peaks and Golan.
The cold will intensify Motzei Shabbat, and the roads may ice over, and remain icy into Sunday morning.
While Monday will see a warm up, the rest of the week should be chilly (and maybe even cold), and there is the possibility of another storm Tuesday or Wednesday.
Barry Lynn
The storm is upon us and it will be fierce.
The winds will gust to 90 km an hour along the coast and 80 km in the central and northern mountains. In the Golan, there will be gusts above 100 km/h. The high winds are expected tonight into late Friday night.
The largest amounts of rain will fall in the far north (> 100 mm) and in the area of the central mountains (50 to 75 mm, or even higher in localized areas).
Temperatures will fall to about freezing Friday night and Shabbat, when a coating of snow will be possible in the central mountains, especially after candle-lightning. Much more snow should fall in the Galilee peaks and Golan.
The cold will intensify Motzei Shabbat, and the roads may ice over, and remain icy into Sunday morning.
While Monday will see a warm up, the rest of the week should be chilly (and maybe even cold), and there is the possibility of another storm Tuesday or Wednesday.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, January 25, 2017
Weather It Is (Winter Weather Warning/Winter Storm Watch)
Good Evening:
There is a winter weather warning for Thursday night into Saturday morning. Heavy rain, cold, and gale force winds (with higher gusts).
There is a Winter Storm Watch for Friday evening into Saturday afternoon for the northern peaks of the Galilee and central Mountains, including Jerusalem.
As noted, the main upper (500 mb) support for this storm will arrive Thursday night into Friday, with the coldest air at 700 and 850 mb arriving Friday evening and Shabbat (Saturday). The global ensemble (GEFS) still shows a possible reinforcing shot of cold air at 500 mb late Friday into Saturday.
The cold air in the lowest levels will remain into Sunday, so any snow or ice that accumulates will be slow to melt.
Because of the unusual situation concerning upper air versus middle/lower atmospheric temperatures, it would be misleading to even try to estimate possible snow amounts. Instead, we'll rely heavily on our high resolution forecast data to give us more information as we approach Friday.
Tuesday of next week may bring another storm, with another round of frozen precipitation possible.
Barry Lynn
There is a winter weather warning for Thursday night into Saturday morning. Heavy rain, cold, and gale force winds (with higher gusts).
There is a Winter Storm Watch for Friday evening into Saturday afternoon for the northern peaks of the Galilee and central Mountains, including Jerusalem.
As noted, the main upper (500 mb) support for this storm will arrive Thursday night into Friday, with the coldest air at 700 and 850 mb arriving Friday evening and Shabbat (Saturday). The global ensemble (GEFS) still shows a possible reinforcing shot of cold air at 500 mb late Friday into Saturday.
The cold air in the lowest levels will remain into Sunday, so any snow or ice that accumulates will be slow to melt.
Because of the unusual situation concerning upper air versus middle/lower atmospheric temperatures, it would be misleading to even try to estimate possible snow amounts. Instead, we'll rely heavily on our high resolution forecast data to give us more information as we approach Friday.
Tuesday of next week may bring another storm, with another round of frozen precipitation possible.
Barry Lynn
Weather It Is (Cold, Rainy, Windy, With A Touch Of Uncertainty)
Good Late Night:
The latest forecast continues to show stormy and very cold weather ahead.
Right now, we have high confidence that it will be near or below freezing in the higher elevations of the central mountains and northern Galilee peaks (and of course on the Hermon, where it will be quite a bit below).
We still see a range of temperatures at 700 mb, but the mean is below -10 C Friday night/Shabbat, which is cold enough for snow.
We also see a prolonged period of precipitation from late Thursday into Sunday morning. However, we also see that the coldest temperatures at 500 mb will occur Thursday night into Friday morning. Yet, we still see the potential for colder upper air temperatures on Shabbat, which would make it more likely for snow to accumulate on Shabbat into Sunday morning.
Lastly, we're pretty sure that it will be quite windy Thursday night into Friday.
All in all, there is still more than a touch of uncertainty whether this coming storm will bring an accumulating snow or not.
Adding the to the uncertainty is possibly another upper air, very cold system to arrive at the start of next month.
Next update is planned, God willing, for Wednesday evening.
Barry Lynn
The latest forecast continues to show stormy and very cold weather ahead.
Right now, we have high confidence that it will be near or below freezing in the higher elevations of the central mountains and northern Galilee peaks (and of course on the Hermon, where it will be quite a bit below).
We still see a range of temperatures at 700 mb, but the mean is below -10 C Friday night/Shabbat, which is cold enough for snow.
We also see a prolonged period of precipitation from late Thursday into Sunday morning. However, we also see that the coldest temperatures at 500 mb will occur Thursday night into Friday morning. Yet, we still see the potential for colder upper air temperatures on Shabbat, which would make it more likely for snow to accumulate on Shabbat into Sunday morning.
Lastly, we're pretty sure that it will be quite windy Thursday night into Friday.
All in all, there is still more than a touch of uncertainty whether this coming storm will bring an accumulating snow or not.
Adding the to the uncertainty is possibly another upper air, very cold system to arrive at the start of next month.
Next update is planned, God willing, for Wednesday evening.
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, January 24, 2017
Weather It Is (Rain, Wind, and Possible Snow)
Good Morning:
Today will see the last of the warm winter days, and Wednesday will see a chance of tropical showers across the south. Then, temperatures will fall steadily into Shabbat. Temperatures at 850 mb will pass through freezing sometime Friday night and this will set the stage for possible mixed precipitation or wet snow in the central mountains and on the northern peaks of the Galilee.
Like yesterday, we see the coldest temperatures aloft (500 mb) on Thursday night into Friday morning, while coldest temperatures at 700 mb -- middle atmosphere (and at 850 mb -- lower atmosphere) should occur Friday night into Sunday night (Sunday morning).
This forecast is quite tricky because there is still a lot of variability in the range of possible temperatures, especially at 700 and 500 mb. The latest (00 GMT) global ensemble forecast continues to hint at secondary upper trough development Friday night into Shabbat. The Euro suggests that the main upper level support will pass through at this time. To create good mixing and good snow formation, the atmosphere should be below -25 C at 500 mb (preferably closer to -30 C). Right now, several forecasts indicate 500 mb around or below -25 C, but the majority do not.
In summary: a soaking rain with thunderstorms, hail and graupel likely Thursday night into Friday with gale force winds lasting into Friday night. Periods of precipitation into Sunday morning, with mixed precipitation or snow possible, depending on what side of "uncertainty" we end up.
Barry Lynn
Today will see the last of the warm winter days, and Wednesday will see a chance of tropical showers across the south. Then, temperatures will fall steadily into Shabbat. Temperatures at 850 mb will pass through freezing sometime Friday night and this will set the stage for possible mixed precipitation or wet snow in the central mountains and on the northern peaks of the Galilee.
Like yesterday, we see the coldest temperatures aloft (500 mb) on Thursday night into Friday morning, while coldest temperatures at 700 mb -- middle atmosphere (and at 850 mb -- lower atmosphere) should occur Friday night into Sunday night (Sunday morning).
This forecast is quite tricky because there is still a lot of variability in the range of possible temperatures, especially at 700 and 500 mb. The latest (00 GMT) global ensemble forecast continues to hint at secondary upper trough development Friday night into Shabbat. The Euro suggests that the main upper level support will pass through at this time. To create good mixing and good snow formation, the atmosphere should be below -25 C at 500 mb (preferably closer to -30 C). Right now, several forecasts indicate 500 mb around or below -25 C, but the majority do not.
In summary: a soaking rain with thunderstorms, hail and graupel likely Thursday night into Friday with gale force winds lasting into Friday night. Periods of precipitation into Sunday morning, with mixed precipitation or snow possible, depending on what side of "uncertainty" we end up.
Barry Lynn
Monday, January 23, 2017
Weather It Is (Uncertainty)
Good Afternoon:
There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the outcome of our next storm.
What we do know is that the warm weather will break Tuesday night and temperatures will fall rapidly into Thursday. Rain should also develop Thursday or Friday morning.
Friday morning into about Monday morning will be unusually cold and windy with periods of precipitation.
The uncertainty is in just how much precipitation will fall, although at least moderate amounts are expected. Within the set of global ensemble forecasts there are wetter and colder forecast "solutions," which bring with them the possibility of snow.
Arguing against a large snowfall, however, is the positioning of the upper trough a bit too far to the east. We can see quite clearly that the upper level trough will approach Thursday night and then pass through on Friday. There are some indications that it may restrengthen Friday into Sunday, but for now the most likely scenario is that it won't.
Still, cold air in the lower (850 mb) and middle (700 mb) atmosphere may bring enough cold to allow for a period of wet snow and/or snow showers in the central mountain areas and northern peaks of the Galilee.
That's where we stand now -- for those who love snow, they should hope for a restrengthening of the upper trough beyond Friday morning.
Barry Lynn
There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the outcome of our next storm.
What we do know is that the warm weather will break Tuesday night and temperatures will fall rapidly into Thursday. Rain should also develop Thursday or Friday morning.
Friday morning into about Monday morning will be unusually cold and windy with periods of precipitation.
The uncertainty is in just how much precipitation will fall, although at least moderate amounts are expected. Within the set of global ensemble forecasts there are wetter and colder forecast "solutions," which bring with them the possibility of snow.
Arguing against a large snowfall, however, is the positioning of the upper trough a bit too far to the east. We can see quite clearly that the upper level trough will approach Thursday night and then pass through on Friday. There are some indications that it may restrengthen Friday into Sunday, but for now the most likely scenario is that it won't.
Still, cold air in the lower (850 mb) and middle (700 mb) atmosphere may bring enough cold to allow for a period of wet snow and/or snow showers in the central mountain areas and northern peaks of the Galilee.
That's where we stand now -- for those who love snow, they should hope for a restrengthening of the upper trough beyond Friday morning.
Barry Lynn
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