Good Afternoon:
We live in uncertain times.
There is an American President who believes that the road to governing is to buy a "Tweeter." Just the other day, our "Iron Dome" defense system intercepted four missiles that were lofted from the Sinai towards Eilat. Our government seems to pass new laws that are not grounded in jurisprudence, raising the likelihood (but not certainty) that they will be struck down. Lastly, even our forecasts are laden with uncertainty.
For instance, there is the possibility, but not certainty of showers on Sunday. There is a greater likelihood, but not certainty of rain on Monday and Tuesday. And there is even the possibility -- but not certainty -- of our first real snow of the year Wednesday and Thursday.
Quite frankly, the uncertainty is the result of a clash of world views. You have the conservative Americans who have held their hand until now (no snow), only to perhaps moderate their views a bit. True, the country is republican, but the winter/snow loving Democrats are now slated to win at least 30% of the times. On the other hand, the Liberal Europeans have been holding fast to their belief that the greatest happiness is when doesn't work -- that is: a vacation snow day (or two) mid-week.
Where do I stand on this: I was always a Democrat until I moved to Israel -- but they and I have parted ways over what I consider to be unfair criticism of Jews living anywhere besides where they the Democrats say it is okay. On the other hand, I've always believed that folks are entitled to a few vacation days -- that work and no play makes Shlomo a dull boy. So, I am moderating my views -- becoming more positive about life (or at least snow) this coming week.
The reasons is that the GEFS (GFS Ensemble) is now showing middle (and even upper) air ensemble members that could produce snow (with temperatures below -10 C at 700 mb, and below -27 C at 500 mb). These forecasts are consistent with the mean, colder and snowy signal from the European forecast Ensemble and the Canadian forecast model.
I think the issue will be decided Motzei Shabbat, so stay tuned.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Friday, February 10, 2017
Thursday, February 9, 2017
Weather It Is (GFS vs ECMWF)
Good Afternoon:
It's a fight between models. The early morning update from each model differed in one important way: while both the GFS and ECMWF bring a period of rain and cold, only the ECMWF (ensemble) supports the continued development of the upper level trough mid week to bring a possibility of our first real snow in two years.
Perhaps as a hint of things to come, the latest GFS ensemble (GEFS) from 0600 UTC suggests that indeed the upper level trough will strengthen mid week.
Personally, I'd rather be in NY where they are expecting about a foot of snow from a storm this morning and afternoon (NY time). I would really like to be able to transport from one snowstorm to the next, and then back to my warm bed by evening (Israel time), or a little later if needed.
In the meantime, expect temperatures to rise a bit until Friday evening, when they will plunge downward all the way until Wednesday. Precipitation on Shabbat will be continue until sometime Tuesday although the precipitation will not fall steadily throughout the period. Temperatures may be close to freezing on Tuesday (and Wednesday), but snow will fall only if the secondary development occurs in the upper level trough.
On a postive note -- if you like snow -- the Canadian forecast model predicts snow mid-week. However, Canadians like snow, so we should expect this.
Barry Lynn
It's a fight between models. The early morning update from each model differed in one important way: while both the GFS and ECMWF bring a period of rain and cold, only the ECMWF (ensemble) supports the continued development of the upper level trough mid week to bring a possibility of our first real snow in two years.
Perhaps as a hint of things to come, the latest GFS ensemble (GEFS) from 0600 UTC suggests that indeed the upper level trough will strengthen mid week.
Personally, I'd rather be in NY where they are expecting about a foot of snow from a storm this morning and afternoon (NY time). I would really like to be able to transport from one snowstorm to the next, and then back to my warm bed by evening (Israel time), or a little later if needed.
In the meantime, expect temperatures to rise a bit until Friday evening, when they will plunge downward all the way until Wednesday. Precipitation on Shabbat will be continue until sometime Tuesday although the precipitation will not fall steadily throughout the period. Temperatures may be close to freezing on Tuesday (and Wednesday), but snow will fall only if the secondary development occurs in the upper level trough.
On a postive note -- if you like snow -- the Canadian forecast model predicts snow mid-week. However, Canadians like snow, so we should expect this.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, February 8, 2017
Weather It Is (Winter Will Return)
Good Afternoon:
Today's weather is pleasantly warm and dry.
Tonight a cool front will pass through from the west and bring a chance of light showers and cooler weather on Thursday.
Temperatures should warm a bit on Friday and Shabbat, but Motzei Shabbat will start a downward trend in temperatures, and winter should return in the form of rain and wind, with snow on the Hermon.
The GEFS (Global Forecast Ensemble System model) is indicating that temperatures will likely fall to near freezing on Monday night into Tuesday and remain on the cold side until the end of the week.
Right now, there is a 40% chance of a light (and wet) snow Tuesday into Friday, with a 10% chance of a more significant snowfall in the Jerusalem area.
It seems that this winter is full of "almost" snowfalls -- we are just not getting good phasing of the upper level troughs (nor very cold air) with the cold air in the lower atmosphere -- as we have had numerous close calls.
We don't live in a particularly snowy climate, although there have been periods (or decades) where it did snow more often -- even quite a lot -- just not recently.
Barry Lynn
Today's weather is pleasantly warm and dry.
Tonight a cool front will pass through from the west and bring a chance of light showers and cooler weather on Thursday.
Temperatures should warm a bit on Friday and Shabbat, but Motzei Shabbat will start a downward trend in temperatures, and winter should return in the form of rain and wind, with snow on the Hermon.
The GEFS (Global Forecast Ensemble System model) is indicating that temperatures will likely fall to near freezing on Monday night into Tuesday and remain on the cold side until the end of the week.
Right now, there is a 40% chance of a light (and wet) snow Tuesday into Friday, with a 10% chance of a more significant snowfall in the Jerusalem area.
It seems that this winter is full of "almost" snowfalls -- we are just not getting good phasing of the upper level troughs (nor very cold air) with the cold air in the lower atmosphere -- as we have had numerous close calls.
We don't live in a particularly snowy climate, although there have been periods (or decades) where it did snow more often -- even quite a lot -- just not recently.
Barry Lynn
Monday, February 6, 2017
Weather It Is (Nice Weather, But)
Good Morning:
Today and tomorrow will be turning into the nicest days of winter, with mild temperatures tomorrow (Tuesday).
In fact, Shabbat morning's sunshine and milder temperatures reminded my daughter of summertime, but afternoon high clouds reminded us of winter.
It looks like the cool front arriving late Tuesday night will bring only cooler temperatures, but not rain.
A trend towards warmer weather Thursday into Friday will be followed by a prolonged cool down, and rain is likely next week. Three of the global model forecasts suggest that the cooling trend will reach cold enough levels to bring heavy rain and wet snow. These forecasts basically build the developing trough far enough south to remind us that winter is not yet over.
Barry Lynn
Today and tomorrow will be turning into the nicest days of winter, with mild temperatures tomorrow (Tuesday).
In fact, Shabbat morning's sunshine and milder temperatures reminded my daughter of summertime, but afternoon high clouds reminded us of winter.
It looks like the cool front arriving late Tuesday night will bring only cooler temperatures, but not rain.
A trend towards warmer weather Thursday into Friday will be followed by a prolonged cool down, and rain is likely next week. Three of the global model forecasts suggest that the cooling trend will reach cold enough levels to bring heavy rain and wet snow. These forecasts basically build the developing trough far enough south to remind us that winter is not yet over.
Barry Lynn
Friday, February 3, 2017
Weather It Is (Ups and Downs)
Good Afternoon:
We had an exciting weather week with a decent rain, followed by some very cold air and temperatures near (or even below) freezing in various locations (not just in the higher elevations). Certainly, the Hermon had some of its coldest weather of the year. We even have some ice on our swimming pool (and water does not freeze unless temperatures are below freezing).
Quite frankly, though, wintertime is running out.
Looking at the long range forecast, we see that the 4th and 7th of this up coming week will be on the warmer side, with the 7th warmer than its peak on the 4th.
We see a chance of rain showers on the 8th or 9th of the month, followed by cooler weather thereafter.
In the middle of next week -- on about the 12th, there could be a more significant rain. Afterwards, we'll have to decide whether to go up to spring or down to winter. At the moment, I am getting 80% of the folks calling for spring, with (only) a minority asking for possible return to more winter like conditions.
This is surprising because usually most people want at least one snow during winter, and our 2 cm + snowfall of last Shabbat didn't really count. So, I can't explain the 80/20 split, except to think that my wife has been influencing people (she hates winter, and when I do something annoying she lets me know). I find it simply amazing that a winter loving person (myself) could marry a summer loving person (my wife), but they say that opposites attract (at least this works with magnets).
So, here's hoping for more winter!
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
We had an exciting weather week with a decent rain, followed by some very cold air and temperatures near (or even below) freezing in various locations (not just in the higher elevations). Certainly, the Hermon had some of its coldest weather of the year. We even have some ice on our swimming pool (and water does not freeze unless temperatures are below freezing).
Quite frankly, though, wintertime is running out.
Looking at the long range forecast, we see that the 4th and 7th of this up coming week will be on the warmer side, with the 7th warmer than its peak on the 4th.
We see a chance of rain showers on the 8th or 9th of the month, followed by cooler weather thereafter.
In the middle of next week -- on about the 12th, there could be a more significant rain. Afterwards, we'll have to decide whether to go up to spring or down to winter. At the moment, I am getting 80% of the folks calling for spring, with (only) a minority asking for possible return to more winter like conditions.
This is surprising because usually most people want at least one snow during winter, and our 2 cm + snowfall of last Shabbat didn't really count. So, I can't explain the 80/20 split, except to think that my wife has been influencing people (she hates winter, and when I do something annoying she lets me know). I find it simply amazing that a winter loving person (myself) could marry a summer loving person (my wife), but they say that opposites attract (at least this works with magnets).
So, here's hoping for more winter!
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, January 31, 2017
Weather It Is (Rain, Possible Snow Showers, and Extreme Cold)
Good Evening:
As the first wave of upper air instability passes over of this evening, showers will continue to develop over the warm seas and move periodically inland over the coastal plain and mountains. Rain will also head south tonight towards Beer-Sheva and Mitpe Ramon.
Tonight, temperatures will fall rapidly passing their inflection point around midnight, and continuing to fall into tomorrow evening. Temperatures near freezing by morning and strong winds imply wind chill values below freezing in many hilly locations. By evening, the winds will die down and Thursday morning will probably be the coldest morning of the year throughout the country.
In fact, temperatures at 850 mb will fall to -3 or below by late tomorrow afternoon, meaning that temperatures may rise little if none at all tomorrow.
As the cold air arrives tonight, light snow may develop in the lingering moisture behind the cold front in the central mountain area. However, our models don't show very much precipitation. Nevertheless, standing water on the roads will probably freeze at the higher elevations.
The GEFS and GFS both show another upper air disturbance approaching tomorrow evening. However, dry winds from the north suggest that it will pass by without any significant precipitation. But, because of the cold at the surface and aloft, we can't rule out some instability rain (inland) snow (mountain areas) showers.
The next week will turn a bit milder, but nothing that says spring is on the way.
For reference, we're noting another possible winter storm arriving late next week.
Barry Lynn
As the first wave of upper air instability passes over of this evening, showers will continue to develop over the warm seas and move periodically inland over the coastal plain and mountains. Rain will also head south tonight towards Beer-Sheva and Mitpe Ramon.
Tonight, temperatures will fall rapidly passing their inflection point around midnight, and continuing to fall into tomorrow evening. Temperatures near freezing by morning and strong winds imply wind chill values below freezing in many hilly locations. By evening, the winds will die down and Thursday morning will probably be the coldest morning of the year throughout the country.
In fact, temperatures at 850 mb will fall to -3 or below by late tomorrow afternoon, meaning that temperatures may rise little if none at all tomorrow.
As the cold air arrives tonight, light snow may develop in the lingering moisture behind the cold front in the central mountain area. However, our models don't show very much precipitation. Nevertheless, standing water on the roads will probably freeze at the higher elevations.
The GEFS and GFS both show another upper air disturbance approaching tomorrow evening. However, dry winds from the north suggest that it will pass by without any significant precipitation. But, because of the cold at the surface and aloft, we can't rule out some instability rain (inland) snow (mountain areas) showers.
The next week will turn a bit milder, but nothing that says spring is on the way.
For reference, we're noting another possible winter storm arriving late next week.
Barry Lynn
Monday, January 30, 2017
Weather It Is (Some Precipitation Than Extreme Cold)
Good Afternoon:
There comes a time in a persons life when he must admit that he (or she) has truly arrived at a milestone. The milestone I am speaking about is the freezing mark, when water transforms to ice. For those of you who are not aware, ice has a lower density than liquid water. I do not know of any other liquid (some special elements may) that has this characteristic, and this special characteristic makes possible life in the seas and lakes, and most likely on land itself (since some claim that my great, great... grandfather was a fish).
Anyway, the forecast shows a significant change in our weather. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the trajectory of the storm will be a bit too far north and east to tap into the Mediterranean moisture for any real length of time. Still, there may be some rain changing to snow showers late Tuesday night and Wednesday (especially as there will be some low level moisture lingering behind the system).
There is a slight chance (about 15%) that a secondary trough will arrive Wednesday night and bring some heavier snow showers.
The intensely cold weather will last into Friday morning, with temperatures most likely below freezing on Wednesday in many higher elevations. Thursday night's low temperatures will probably burst the "Coltrim" on the solar panels unless the circulation to them is closed off until after the ice within melts the next morning.
Thereafter, winter will seem just a distant memory.
Barry Lynn
There comes a time in a persons life when he must admit that he (or she) has truly arrived at a milestone. The milestone I am speaking about is the freezing mark, when water transforms to ice. For those of you who are not aware, ice has a lower density than liquid water. I do not know of any other liquid (some special elements may) that has this characteristic, and this special characteristic makes possible life in the seas and lakes, and most likely on land itself (since some claim that my great, great... grandfather was a fish).
Anyway, the forecast shows a significant change in our weather. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the trajectory of the storm will be a bit too far north and east to tap into the Mediterranean moisture for any real length of time. Still, there may be some rain changing to snow showers late Tuesday night and Wednesday (especially as there will be some low level moisture lingering behind the system).
There is a slight chance (about 15%) that a secondary trough will arrive Wednesday night and bring some heavier snow showers.
The intensely cold weather will last into Friday morning, with temperatures most likely below freezing on Wednesday in many higher elevations. Thursday night's low temperatures will probably burst the "Coltrim" on the solar panels unless the circulation to them is closed off until after the ice within melts the next morning.
Thereafter, winter will seem just a distant memory.
Barry Lynn
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