Good Afternoon:
I'm sitting near the window watching a light blue sky -- there are no clouds floating by.
It's that kind of weather -- actually, everyone here says it's been a relatively cool summer. But, since we had a relatively warm winter, there were no cherries and one could sit a long time under the apple tree without fear of injury (unlike last year, which was great for apples and cherries).
In contrast, Dr. Jame Hansen (formally head of NASA GISS), claims that regional climate change is appearing above the "noise" of climate-variability (http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034009). You can see just how warm it's been worldwide by checking out this link (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/July2018.pdf). Interestingly, the maps show our area as being 1 -- 2 Celcius above the "norm" (defined as the mean temperatures between 1951 -- 1980).
I write interestingly because the guys who know (e.g, those who put in air conditioning system) say it ain't so, and they are not the only ones. I believe that the Israel Meteorological Service keeps track of temperatures compared to normal means, but I'll have to leave this double-check for a later time.
In any case, there is not much change forecast for our weather during the next week to 10 days. One can see that it is still anomalously warm over Europe (follow the links here to 500 mb height anomalies: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/). This affects us in an unusual way: storms are forced north of Europe, which then swing back down over Siberia. The resulting flow pattern sets up a high pressure area with westerly winds in the eastern Mediterranean or even pushes back a trough into our area -- keeping temperatures blowing refreshingly off the sea (rather then the desert to our east).
The mercury seems to be rising world-wide but the added energy from higher Carbon Dioxide gases has led to regional changes that include snowier east-coast winters (and now a humid and very rainy summer), but longer fire-seasons and extremely hot weather in the western US. There is even a drought in Sweden, which is very unusual. In England, a drought has withered the country side (but there is still plenty of water to drink: https://www.ft.com/content/a0dd8ba6-8044-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475).
Some will claim that this is just "weather." They're right, but it may not be the weather they grew up with.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, August 22, 2018
Thursday, August 2, 2018
Weather It Is (Wow, That's Strange!)
Good Evening:
This morning I thought seriously about turning on my windshield wipers. It just seemed the thing to do as drops of rain fell from a cloudy sky. But, I resisted the temptation even as I marvelled at the fall like cloudy sky in the beginning of August.
Weak low pressure in the middle atmosphere should combine with strong westerly flow aloft to bring us a continued chance of very light showers into early Shabbat. However, the winds should switch to the southwest and temperatures should warm to uncomfortable levels (mid 30s) as we progress from early to mid-next-week.
The unusually cool weather of today (Thursday) and yesterday are courtesy of an unusually cold vortex over western Siberia. This is the type of set-up that can contribute to bringing us unusually cold, and even snowy weather during our winter months. This vortex should elongate and move northward during next week's hot weather, but could return early the week after.
Our kids have pointed out that there are some things one expects in Israel (besides missiles from Gaza) and that's hot, summer weather. Hence, they were surprised (and a bit annoyed) to arrive back in Israel after a visit to see the grandparents and find that the weather here today is the same as the weather we left in the Dolomites of Italy, where the elevation is closer to our Har Hermon than Gush Etzion.
Of course, that's nothing to complain about compared to the spider that ate my wife the week before last.
These strange happenings started in the evening when my wife went upstairs for an early bed-time. Relaxing and supine while looking at weather maps in the living room, I heard a scream. I came running upstairs (taking the stairs two at a time) to find a rather large spider in the bathroom. The spider was looking at my wife and my wife was looking at the spider, and then the spider was looking at the both of us. What the spider didn't know was that he (or she) looked larger to my wife than to me (https://www.livescience.com/53765-arachnophobes-perceive-spiders-as-bigger.html), so it was left to me to grab a towel and show the spider the door.
However, no sooner had I mentioned that the spider likely had (has) a spider-mate, did I hear another scream from the bathroom, and the same process repeated itself.
After picking up and moving the furniture, cleaning the bedroom with a vacuum and a candle to light the way, we went to bed, but not before I remarked that I hoped that these spiders were the parents and not the children, otherwise I might not wake up next to my wife, but a spider.
I thought this pretty witty, but the crack of dawn revealed much less than a laughing matter. My wife was gone! It was no joke after all -- a spider ate my wife!
Okay, that's seems farfetched. What really happened is that she dreamed that a spider ate me and she'd fled from the room for the safety of the lower floors. She wasn't eaten, she was just fled.
At least our room is clean for Passover.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
This morning I thought seriously about turning on my windshield wipers. It just seemed the thing to do as drops of rain fell from a cloudy sky. But, I resisted the temptation even as I marvelled at the fall like cloudy sky in the beginning of August.
Weak low pressure in the middle atmosphere should combine with strong westerly flow aloft to bring us a continued chance of very light showers into early Shabbat. However, the winds should switch to the southwest and temperatures should warm to uncomfortable levels (mid 30s) as we progress from early to mid-next-week.
The unusually cool weather of today (Thursday) and yesterday are courtesy of an unusually cold vortex over western Siberia. This is the type of set-up that can contribute to bringing us unusually cold, and even snowy weather during our winter months. This vortex should elongate and move northward during next week's hot weather, but could return early the week after.
Our kids have pointed out that there are some things one expects in Israel (besides missiles from Gaza) and that's hot, summer weather. Hence, they were surprised (and a bit annoyed) to arrive back in Israel after a visit to see the grandparents and find that the weather here today is the same as the weather we left in the Dolomites of Italy, where the elevation is closer to our Har Hermon than Gush Etzion.
Of course, that's nothing to complain about compared to the spider that ate my wife the week before last.
These strange happenings started in the evening when my wife went upstairs for an early bed-time. Relaxing and supine while looking at weather maps in the living room, I heard a scream. I came running upstairs (taking the stairs two at a time) to find a rather large spider in the bathroom. The spider was looking at my wife and my wife was looking at the spider, and then the spider was looking at the both of us. What the spider didn't know was that he (or she) looked larger to my wife than to me (https://www.livescience.com/53765-arachnophobes-perceive-spiders-as-bigger.html), so it was left to me to grab a towel and show the spider the door.
However, no sooner had I mentioned that the spider likely had (has) a spider-mate, did I hear another scream from the bathroom, and the same process repeated itself.
After picking up and moving the furniture, cleaning the bedroom with a vacuum and a candle to light the way, we went to bed, but not before I remarked that I hoped that these spiders were the parents and not the children, otherwise I might not wake up next to my wife, but a spider.
I thought this pretty witty, but the crack of dawn revealed much less than a laughing matter. My wife was gone! It was no joke after all -- a spider ate my wife!
Okay, that's seems farfetched. What really happened is that she dreamed that a spider ate me and she'd fled from the room for the safety of the lower floors. She wasn't eaten, she was just fled.
At least our room is clean for Passover.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Weather It Is (Hotter and Cooler, Showers?)
Good Morning:
With all this talk about earthquakes, I suppose it only appropriate that the weather has been "acting" a bit unusual. I'm not used to see fast moving clouds in summertime, or even to exclaim: "was that a drop of rain?"
Despite the recent cool weather, the mid-week period will turn quite hot, with Thursday being the hottest of the three, as high pressure builds eastward from Africa. What we seem to be missing this summer is a very strong heat low over the desert to our east. Instead there is a anomalous area of cold air over west-central Russia (or north of Kazakstan). This will help to create an atmospheric flow pattern that will allow for unusually cool summer air to drop down over the eastern Mediterranean at middle and lower levels of the atmosphere as we head into the Ninth of Av (fast). The models are actually shown showers over northern and central areas as Shabbat moves into Sunday's fast.
Those who work in the field of atmospheric sciences are much more fortunate than those who study plate tectonics, and dream of some day predicting earthquakes. Earthquakes are very hard to predict, even when they are happening! (See: https://www.popsci.com/earthquake-harder-to-predict-than-we-thought). They are also very difficult to predict before they happen because the data required to do so is not complete and hard to get (earthquakes can start 30 km beneath the surface! See: http://theconversation.com/why-it-is-so-hard-to-predict-where-and-when-earthquakes-will-strike-40873). There are other issues to contend with. For instance, the equations that describe the ebb and flow of the atmosphere are well-known (although errors in initial data do lead to errors in the forecasts, as well as for other reasons). Earthquakes can happen when one plate moves below another or to the side. The action occurs suddenly, which is equivalent to a "Step-Function" in mathematics that is simple to write, but hard to formulate (like when a bridge or dam suddenly collapses due to a build up of pressure or weakening of the supports).
Others have more obvious predictors. Shall we blame the strange weather on the plan to possibly build a mixed prayer pavilion at the Western (Kotel) Wall? Or, shall we only blame the recent bout of earthquakes (see:https://www.timesofisrael.com/ultra-orthodox-mk-suggests-earthquake-was-due-to-western-wall-mixed-prayer-area/) on such plans?
Perhaps there is a more obvious reason. My "Me Am Lo Ez" Torah Anthology (Exodus-II Redemption; translated by Rabbi Aryeh Kaplan) notes that one of the reasons the Jewish people were redeemed from Egypt was because they didn't speak LaShon Hara (gossip or say bad things about others). But, here we have the Knesset lawmaker blaming the Reform movement for Earthquakes. Then we had a "Kashrut" authority revoke Barkan Wines certificate for employing Ethiopians. The Eda Haredit claims that there is not enough proof that Ethiopians who immigrated to Israel are actually Jewish (so they are not allowed to touch the wine while it is being prepared).
Widespread questioning of someone else's Jewishness or the Jewishness of Converts is strictly forbidden in the Book of Jewish Law (the Torah). Yet, here we have a group claiming to be a "congregation of God-fearing" people engaging in actions anathema to proper Jewish Observance.
In my opinion, the best way to demonstrate your goodness as a person is to be kind to others. Striving for that extra strictness based on the most extreme measure of Jewish law is actually based on selfishness (hoping for extra "brownie-points"), and not charitableness (among which giving money to those is needs is also an important responsibility).
Barry Lynn
With all this talk about earthquakes, I suppose it only appropriate that the weather has been "acting" a bit unusual. I'm not used to see fast moving clouds in summertime, or even to exclaim: "was that a drop of rain?"
Despite the recent cool weather, the mid-week period will turn quite hot, with Thursday being the hottest of the three, as high pressure builds eastward from Africa. What we seem to be missing this summer is a very strong heat low over the desert to our east. Instead there is a anomalous area of cold air over west-central Russia (or north of Kazakstan). This will help to create an atmospheric flow pattern that will allow for unusually cool summer air to drop down over the eastern Mediterranean at middle and lower levels of the atmosphere as we head into the Ninth of Av (fast). The models are actually shown showers over northern and central areas as Shabbat moves into Sunday's fast.
Those who work in the field of atmospheric sciences are much more fortunate than those who study plate tectonics, and dream of some day predicting earthquakes. Earthquakes are very hard to predict, even when they are happening! (See: https://www.popsci.com/earthquake-harder-to-predict-than-we-thought). They are also very difficult to predict before they happen because the data required to do so is not complete and hard to get (earthquakes can start 30 km beneath the surface! See: http://theconversation.com/why-it-is-so-hard-to-predict-where-and-when-earthquakes-will-strike-40873). There are other issues to contend with. For instance, the equations that describe the ebb and flow of the atmosphere are well-known (although errors in initial data do lead to errors in the forecasts, as well as for other reasons). Earthquakes can happen when one plate moves below another or to the side. The action occurs suddenly, which is equivalent to a "Step-Function" in mathematics that is simple to write, but hard to formulate (like when a bridge or dam suddenly collapses due to a build up of pressure or weakening of the supports).
Others have more obvious predictors. Shall we blame the strange weather on the plan to possibly build a mixed prayer pavilion at the Western (Kotel) Wall? Or, shall we only blame the recent bout of earthquakes (see:https://www.timesofisrael.com/ultra-orthodox-mk-suggests-earthquake-was-due-to-western-wall-mixed-prayer-area/) on such plans?
Perhaps there is a more obvious reason. My "Me Am Lo Ez" Torah Anthology (Exodus-II Redemption; translated by Rabbi Aryeh Kaplan) notes that one of the reasons the Jewish people were redeemed from Egypt was because they didn't speak LaShon Hara (gossip or say bad things about others). But, here we have the Knesset lawmaker blaming the Reform movement for Earthquakes. Then we had a "Kashrut" authority revoke Barkan Wines certificate for employing Ethiopians. The Eda Haredit claims that there is not enough proof that Ethiopians who immigrated to Israel are actually Jewish (so they are not allowed to touch the wine while it is being prepared).
Widespread questioning of someone else's Jewishness or the Jewishness of Converts is strictly forbidden in the Book of Jewish Law (the Torah). Yet, here we have a group claiming to be a "congregation of God-fearing" people engaging in actions anathema to proper Jewish Observance.
In my opinion, the best way to demonstrate your goodness as a person is to be kind to others. Striving for that extra strictness based on the most extreme measure of Jewish law is actually based on selfishness (hoping for extra "brownie-points"), and not charitableness (among which giving money to those is needs is also an important responsibility).
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, July 4, 2018
Weather It Is (Hmm Weather)
Good Afternoon:
It's the kind of summer weather that makes you want to say "hmm." It's not super hot, but it's not exactly pleasant either. In fact, the northwest flow has brought some broken clouds in off the sea.
The hot, sultry weather is courteous of strong high pressure over Africa combining with low pressure over Syria. Both systems are fairly stationary, and the results is the northwest flow. But because the air originates in both Africa and the desert areas to our northeast, we just end up hot and a bit on the humid side.
Without much to look at in the sky, I have taken to noticing what's going around me at eye-level. The other day there was a long line of cars passing through the open lane of the check-point on the way to Gush Etzion. I was in that line when I noticed a person speed down the adjacent lane, headed towards the unopen gate at the check-point. I wondered what this person thinks about before making his move. Considering that this person could not have seen whether the lane was open before he took the plunge, he really made a bold move. For instance, if the rest of us are dumb, he'd sail right through past everyone else. But, if the lane is closed, he'd have to go back to the end of the line -- right? No, he just cuts in and goes ahead of everyone else.
What about the person that goes around the speed bump, crossing the yellow line, just so he (or she) doesn't have to slow down. Does that person think: "I bet I can outsmart that speed bump," or is it: "they're not going to make me slow down, even if I have to break the law."
In The Times of Israel, there is an article entitled: "Will the West Cede the Golan to a Psychopath?" (https://www.timesofisrael.com/will-the-west-cede-the-golan-heights-to-a-psychopath/) The authors mean: to Bashar Assad. When the editor wrote the headline did they try to convey how illogical that would be or did they purposely try to convey that Israel does not own the Golan? After all, if the Golan is part of Israel then how can other nations turn it over to Mr. Assad?
The Israeli Knesset passed a law deducting Palestinian payments to murderers in Israeli jails from tax obligations (https://www.timesofisrael.com/knesset-passes-law-freezing-pa-funding-over-terror-payouts/). Supposedly, the law sends a message to the Palestinian that terror doesn't pay. The Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas instead called prisoners in Israel jails "Political Prisoners" -- not terrorists -- and "victims of the 'Occupation.'" Ironically, he went on to say that the same prisoners are not the "creators of the occupation." It's a great line, but does he really believe it? Until the war in 2000, Israel had vacated Area A (under the Oslo Accords), and offered most of the area west of the Jordan River and east of the old "Green Line" (Armistice Line) (and Gaza) to the Palestinians for their own state, including parts of Jerusalem. So, who is the creator of the "Occupation?" It's the Palestinians -- no Israel will in his or her right mind cede land to a people that pays its citizens to murder others.
Barry Lynn
It's the kind of summer weather that makes you want to say "hmm." It's not super hot, but it's not exactly pleasant either. In fact, the northwest flow has brought some broken clouds in off the sea.
The hot, sultry weather is courteous of strong high pressure over Africa combining with low pressure over Syria. Both systems are fairly stationary, and the results is the northwest flow. But because the air originates in both Africa and the desert areas to our northeast, we just end up hot and a bit on the humid side.
Without much to look at in the sky, I have taken to noticing what's going around me at eye-level. The other day there was a long line of cars passing through the open lane of the check-point on the way to Gush Etzion. I was in that line when I noticed a person speed down the adjacent lane, headed towards the unopen gate at the check-point. I wondered what this person thinks about before making his move. Considering that this person could not have seen whether the lane was open before he took the plunge, he really made a bold move. For instance, if the rest of us are dumb, he'd sail right through past everyone else. But, if the lane is closed, he'd have to go back to the end of the line -- right? No, he just cuts in and goes ahead of everyone else.
What about the person that goes around the speed bump, crossing the yellow line, just so he (or she) doesn't have to slow down. Does that person think: "I bet I can outsmart that speed bump," or is it: "they're not going to make me slow down, even if I have to break the law."
In The Times of Israel, there is an article entitled: "Will the West Cede the Golan to a Psychopath?" (https://www.timesofisrael.com/will-the-west-cede-the-golan-heights-to-a-psychopath/) The authors mean: to Bashar Assad. When the editor wrote the headline did they try to convey how illogical that would be or did they purposely try to convey that Israel does not own the Golan? After all, if the Golan is part of Israel then how can other nations turn it over to Mr. Assad?
The Israeli Knesset passed a law deducting Palestinian payments to murderers in Israeli jails from tax obligations (https://www.timesofisrael.com/knesset-passes-law-freezing-pa-funding-over-terror-payouts/). Supposedly, the law sends a message to the Palestinian that terror doesn't pay. The Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas instead called prisoners in Israel jails "Political Prisoners" -- not terrorists -- and "victims of the 'Occupation.'" Ironically, he went on to say that the same prisoners are not the "creators of the occupation." It's a great line, but does he really believe it? Until the war in 2000, Israel had vacated Area A (under the Oslo Accords), and offered most of the area west of the Jordan River and east of the old "Green Line" (Armistice Line) (and Gaza) to the Palestinians for their own state, including parts of Jerusalem. So, who is the creator of the "Occupation?" It's the Palestinians -- no Israel will in his or her right mind cede land to a people that pays its citizens to murder others.
Barry Lynn
Monday, June 25, 2018
Weather It Is (Summer Hero)
Good Evening:
Summer sure seems to have arrived -- as kids seem out and about at all hours now.
However, the weather has not been particularly hot, and when it is hot it doesn't stay hot for more than a day or so.
In fact, high pressure over Africa will nose quickly north and eastward and Wednesday will indeed turn hot with temperatures in the mid-30s. Yet, the high pressure area will quickly move eastward, and cooler temperatures should return for the end of the week.
Looking further ahead, the anomalously cold weather over western Siberia should dissipate and summer should arrive both on the weather maps and on our thermometers as July rolls into its first week.
It's always important to look ahead or around. You never know who might be shooting at you (https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinians-open-fire-on-settlement-south-of-jerusalem-idf/). Fortunately, no one was hurt.
A more serious incident appeared to unfold in the Rami-Levy parking lot last Thursday morning. An unidentified man was seen running through the parking lot.
Since I was that unidentified man, I can tell you what happened. The store has a whole new line of sleeker and aerodynamic grocery carts. Apparently, one of them escaped its owner and was rolling down the relatively flat, but still downhill parking lot. Seeing this, I gave chase. Fortunately, I had done my stretching and warmup exercises that morning so I was able to catch the cart before it crashed front first into a parked car on the other side of the lot.
At first an alarm sounded, but then strangely the speakers started playing the theme song from the "Six Million Dollar Man" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmgRqWMeRww). I couldn't stop laughing as I accepted the congratulations from passerby.
In the meantime, my daughter had her picture taken with Rami Levy, the founder and owner of the supermarket chain that bears his name.
Summer sure seems to have arrived -- as kids seem out and about at all hours now.
However, the weather has not been particularly hot, and when it is hot it doesn't stay hot for more than a day or so.
In fact, high pressure over Africa will nose quickly north and eastward and Wednesday will indeed turn hot with temperatures in the mid-30s. Yet, the high pressure area will quickly move eastward, and cooler temperatures should return for the end of the week.
Looking further ahead, the anomalously cold weather over western Siberia should dissipate and summer should arrive both on the weather maps and on our thermometers as July rolls into its first week.
It's always important to look ahead or around. You never know who might be shooting at you (https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinians-open-fire-on-settlement-south-of-jerusalem-idf/). Fortunately, no one was hurt.
A more serious incident appeared to unfold in the Rami-Levy parking lot last Thursday morning. An unidentified man was seen running through the parking lot.
Since I was that unidentified man, I can tell you what happened. The store has a whole new line of sleeker and aerodynamic grocery carts. Apparently, one of them escaped its owner and was rolling down the relatively flat, but still downhill parking lot. Seeing this, I gave chase. Fortunately, I had done my stretching and warmup exercises that morning so I was able to catch the cart before it crashed front first into a parked car on the other side of the lot.
At first an alarm sounded, but then strangely the speakers started playing the theme song from the "Six Million Dollar Man" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmgRqWMeRww). I couldn't stop laughing as I accepted the congratulations from passerby.
In the meantime, my daughter had her picture taken with Rami Levy, the founder and owner of the supermarket chain that bears his name.
What I didn't mention is that I had to wait several minutes for the crowd to thin out so I could continue unloading my grocery carts, including the one that ran away.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, June 13, 2018
Weather It Is (Where Did That Come From?)
Good Evening:
Sixty four millimetres of rain this Wednesday morning in the western Negev! And, as if they needed another "natural" disaster, the city of Sederot was severely flooded, with cars floating through the streets (https://www.timesofisrael.com/floods-inundate-southern-towns-as-freak-rains-batter-country/). The picture below shows a radar facsimile derived from our radar network Wednesday morning. This storm lingered for almost an hour in nearly the same location! There was also a quick, but heavy rain in Jerusalem today that caused a quick ponding of water on roads or what we might call old-fashioned puddles.
So, what's going on? By this time of year the weather in the eastern Mediterranean is usually under the influence of the Indian Monsoon. Winds circulating around the Monsoon warm the air in the middle atmosphere, which prevents clouds from growing high enough to bring summer rains.
However, this year there is an area of lower pressure in western Siberia, which appears to be preventing the Monsoon from reaching here. Moreover, the Monsoon itself seems to have had a delayed strengthening (https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/national/monsoon-lags-over-east-india-may-weaken-further/article24127521.ece). The lack of the Monsoon air combined with weak storms arriving from southern Europe means that the air remains unstable to cloud formation, while the relatively warm Mediterranean sea provides plenty of moisture to these growing storms.
The Times of Israel article notes that the last time it rained so much in the Negev was 26 years ago, when there was 50 millimetres. This would have been 1992, which I believe followed the severe winter of 1991-92.
Looking ahead at our forecast, there appears to be a quick warm-up in time for Shabbat as high pressure builds eastward Africal. Yet, the forecast shows relatively cool temperatures prior to and to following the warm-up. Amazingly enough, there may be more rain in about a week's time as another storm moves by (possibly just our our north). Will the rainy weather continue even beyond next week? The note on the Indian Monsoon doesn't forecast appreciable strengthening in the Monsoon for at least a couple of weeks.
Regardless, I tend to lean towards something more going on than just changes to the Indian Monsoon. I remember years when it rained (once) somewhere in the country during the month of May, and even August, but this year we've had consistent periods where rain has affected more than just a single localized area.
One positive outcome of all this strange weather is that the weatherman (or woman) has remained immensely popular -- at a time when most people are usually at the beach sipping watermelon juice or just staying home complaining about the heat. I can't go anywhere without people stopping me to comment on the weather. I've even been solicited for TV (internet) interviews. All I can say that its fortunate that I've been extra busy, and even my kids are taking an extra moment to speak with me, and wonder "what's going on with our weather!?"
Barry Lynn
Sixty four millimetres of rain this Wednesday morning in the western Negev! And, as if they needed another "natural" disaster, the city of Sederot was severely flooded, with cars floating through the streets (https://www.timesofisrael.com/floods-inundate-southern-towns-as-freak-rains-batter-country/). The picture below shows a radar facsimile derived from our radar network Wednesday morning. This storm lingered for almost an hour in nearly the same location! There was also a quick, but heavy rain in Jerusalem today that caused a quick ponding of water on roads or what we might call old-fashioned puddles.
So, what's going on? By this time of year the weather in the eastern Mediterranean is usually under the influence of the Indian Monsoon. Winds circulating around the Monsoon warm the air in the middle atmosphere, which prevents clouds from growing high enough to bring summer rains.
However, this year there is an area of lower pressure in western Siberia, which appears to be preventing the Monsoon from reaching here. Moreover, the Monsoon itself seems to have had a delayed strengthening (https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/national/monsoon-lags-over-east-india-may-weaken-further/article24127521.ece). The lack of the Monsoon air combined with weak storms arriving from southern Europe means that the air remains unstable to cloud formation, while the relatively warm Mediterranean sea provides plenty of moisture to these growing storms.
The Times of Israel article notes that the last time it rained so much in the Negev was 26 years ago, when there was 50 millimetres. This would have been 1992, which I believe followed the severe winter of 1991-92.
Looking ahead at our forecast, there appears to be a quick warm-up in time for Shabbat as high pressure builds eastward Africal. Yet, the forecast shows relatively cool temperatures prior to and to following the warm-up. Amazingly enough, there may be more rain in about a week's time as another storm moves by (possibly just our our north). Will the rainy weather continue even beyond next week? The note on the Indian Monsoon doesn't forecast appreciable strengthening in the Monsoon for at least a couple of weeks.
Regardless, I tend to lean towards something more going on than just changes to the Indian Monsoon. I remember years when it rained (once) somewhere in the country during the month of May, and even August, but this year we've had consistent periods where rain has affected more than just a single localized area.
One positive outcome of all this strange weather is that the weatherman (or woman) has remained immensely popular -- at a time when most people are usually at the beach sipping watermelon juice or just staying home complaining about the heat. I can't go anywhere without people stopping me to comment on the weather. I've even been solicited for TV (internet) interviews. All I can say that its fortunate that I've been extra busy, and even my kids are taking an extra moment to speak with me, and wonder "what's going on with our weather!?"
Barry Lynn
Thursday, June 7, 2018
Weather It Is (Hot And Dusty)
Good Afternoon:
After several days of hot and muggy weather and some heavy (but isolated) thundershowers, the weather turned a bit cooler and drier. However, it's back to summer.
Low pressure will move by to our east today (Thursday). It's responsible for the hotter temperatures and heavy dust, as well as some high level overcast. The storm will pass by, but be replaced with high pressure entering from the west. This high pressure area will be originating in Africa. Hence, it will also bring hot summer temperatures, and some dust as well.
The hot weather should last into mid next week when some moisture arriving with a storm from the north might again bring some showers.
Barry Lynn
After several days of hot and muggy weather and some heavy (but isolated) thundershowers, the weather turned a bit cooler and drier. However, it's back to summer.
Low pressure will move by to our east today (Thursday). It's responsible for the hotter temperatures and heavy dust, as well as some high level overcast. The storm will pass by, but be replaced with high pressure entering from the west. This high pressure area will be originating in Africa. Hence, it will also bring hot summer temperatures, and some dust as well.
The hot weather should last into mid next week when some moisture arriving with a storm from the north might again bring some showers.
Barry Lynn
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