Good Afternoon:
We're moving along into fall, and the weather is changing accordingly. The seasonal forecast from the "ECMWF" (seasonal forecasting system: https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/) continues to show above normal temperatures through November, but increasingly above normal rain amounts as we move from October to November, and then November to December. December's temperatures should be average, so perhaps we'll see a late December snow. That's exciting news, but you can also note that January is supposed to be drier than normal.
We'll have to wait and see if these forecasts are going to be accurate; I hope we don't have to wait similarly as long to see what Knesset parties will make up our new government.
One thing we do know is that the days just prior to Yom Kippur are going to be quite a bit cooler than these past few days, but Yom Kippur itself could be a tad too warm. Moreover, there may even be warmer days that follow. Still, temperatures in the upper atmosphere are forecast to fall quite steadily, and we'll need these temperatures to be relatively low before we can get any substantial fall rains.
Even though the future is uncertain, the past seems less so. For instance, the weather days of Rosh HaShanah were really quite nice. I saw plenty of people outdoors, and most seems quite happy to be heading home around lunch time after the morning Shofar blowing. Of course, we all know that the day long (if not longer) prayers of Yom Kippur will soon be upon us. I have it on good authority that there are some synagogues that pray so slowly they don't even finish by nightfall, and that there are a few that continue all the way to Passover. That's what's called dedication, especially since the fast doesn't end until the shofar blowing at the end of services.
It's strange to see people with such dedication, but a stranger thing happened to me. I had a broken dryer fixed about the same time that my laundry room fan broke. The heating element was broken and the fan didn't spin fast enough to remove the room humidity (the latter independently confirmed). Of course, a day or so later I called the repair-person to let him know that the element was broken again, and of course he came and pointed out that it was working fine. Strangely enough the fan also works fine again.
There are three possibilities that can explain these strange happenings. The first is that both the dryer and fan fixed themselves. The second is that I was mistaken about the dryer -- but this doesn't explain the broken fan that now works even though no one came to fix it. The third is that our dryer was temporarily replaced with a broken dryer from another universe, and some poor soul now has both a broken dryer and a broken laundry room fan.
I think that the third option is the most likely, but I'd rather spend my next few months forecasting weather (I can hypothesize, pontificate, and expound, and even be wrong -- yet still have a shred of credibility), then speculate about dryers that fix themselves.
Have a nice holiday.
Barry Lynn
Thursday, October 3, 2019
Thursday, September 12, 2019
Weather It Is (Changes Are A-Foot)
Good Evening:
"Tell no one we have spoken, for all shall reveal itself in due course (Everafter: A Cinderella Story)." One has the feeling that whether we speak about it or not, we're pretty much going to find out what happens next Tuesday, election Day, by sometime next Wednesday. If we wait a few more months, we'll also know whether this coming winter will be rainy just like the last.
Actually, the next two weeks pretty much look the same. Some meandering of the temperatures up and down -- just like the poll numbers -- but nothing really changing over time. Election day should be quite nice, weatherwise. However, if we head up to the upper atmosphere (at 500 mb), we'll find a dramatic decrease sometime before election day. This means the upper air circulation associated with the Indian Monsoon is weakening and moving away from our area, and our skies can now start to produce puffy cumulus clouds as a prelude to fall and winter.
Interestingly, there are plenty of rumors about this coming fall and winter's weather. We heard that it's going to be very rainy in the next few months from those who prefer to reveal what will be instead of to wait until it actually happens. The American forecast model actually shows warmer and drier weather than usual, but the more reliable European model shows a fairly rainy fall with temperatures a bit warmer than usual. December is forecast to be have quite heavier than normal rain amounts, with normal temperatures. The New Year could bring in normal temperatures and normal amounts of rain.
The predictions are also out for this Tuesday's election -- and they show no change from the previous election result.
Afterall, the folks down south have been living with the the occasional and not so occasional missile attack for the last several years, so why should more people vote for the government than before. Perhaps than it was poetic justice that our Prime Minister had to be rushed off the stage because of such an attack. "You can't stop me," they probably shouted from somewhere in Gaza.
Of course, the true response would be: we didn't try because we'd rather live (or let someone else live with) the situation than take concrete and difficult steps to stop the attacks.
While focused on its reelection, one wonders if our government ever stops to think that you can only "buy" quiet so long before you just can't. Like a Ponzi scheme that can only be sustained so long, I worry that the payoffs will one day be too small to maintain the quiet, and then it won't be safe for our future Prime Minister to campaign in Tel-Aviv as well.
As for the rest of us, we'll be like all those Ponzi scheme losers. Out of luck, but hopefully not out of life as well.
Barry Lynn
"Tell no one we have spoken, for all shall reveal itself in due course (Everafter: A Cinderella Story)." One has the feeling that whether we speak about it or not, we're pretty much going to find out what happens next Tuesday, election Day, by sometime next Wednesday. If we wait a few more months, we'll also know whether this coming winter will be rainy just like the last.
Actually, the next two weeks pretty much look the same. Some meandering of the temperatures up and down -- just like the poll numbers -- but nothing really changing over time. Election day should be quite nice, weatherwise. However, if we head up to the upper atmosphere (at 500 mb), we'll find a dramatic decrease sometime before election day. This means the upper air circulation associated with the Indian Monsoon is weakening and moving away from our area, and our skies can now start to produce puffy cumulus clouds as a prelude to fall and winter.
Interestingly, there are plenty of rumors about this coming fall and winter's weather. We heard that it's going to be very rainy in the next few months from those who prefer to reveal what will be instead of to wait until it actually happens. The American forecast model actually shows warmer and drier weather than usual, but the more reliable European model shows a fairly rainy fall with temperatures a bit warmer than usual. December is forecast to be have quite heavier than normal rain amounts, with normal temperatures. The New Year could bring in normal temperatures and normal amounts of rain.
The predictions are also out for this Tuesday's election -- and they show no change from the previous election result.
Afterall, the folks down south have been living with the the occasional and not so occasional missile attack for the last several years, so why should more people vote for the government than before. Perhaps than it was poetic justice that our Prime Minister had to be rushed off the stage because of such an attack. "You can't stop me," they probably shouted from somewhere in Gaza.
Of course, the true response would be: we didn't try because we'd rather live (or let someone else live with) the situation than take concrete and difficult steps to stop the attacks.
While focused on its reelection, one wonders if our government ever stops to think that you can only "buy" quiet so long before you just can't. Like a Ponzi scheme that can only be sustained so long, I worry that the payoffs will one day be too small to maintain the quiet, and then it won't be safe for our future Prime Minister to campaign in Tel-Aviv as well.
As for the rest of us, we'll be like all those Ponzi scheme losers. Out of luck, but hopefully not out of life as well.
Barry Lynn
Friday, August 23, 2019
Weather It Is (Summer Heat)
Good Afternoon:
They call them the "Dog Days of Summer," and our own dog was quick to take advantage of the heat to stretch out in the sun. She actually objects to the fact that the Romans named these days after the brightest star in the sky: the Star Sirius, or the "Dog Star," rather than her ancestors.
The heat she so enjoys has been courtesy of low pressure situated to our east and a persistent counter-clockwise flow around it. Such winds are good to bring the heat, and they also limit the build up of wave heights, so this is a perfect time to go to the beach. By the way, we leave our dog at home because nothing smells worse than a dog that "smells like a dog" (and wet at that).
While slightly cooler weather may meet our mid-week time, we can expect a return to hotter weather again as the month of August ends, and turns into September.
Really -- it's hot, and it was actually a good time to head over to Cinema City in Jerusalem for a movie. We saw "Dora and the Lost City of Gold." I thought that it would be a movie for our teenage girls, but I couldn't stop laughing. In fact, folks young and not so were laughing so loudly it was sometimes hard to hear the movie.
Yet, it was both a fun movie, and a funny -- make you laugh movie, especially when the producers mixed real live scenes with a bit of fantasy. It also had an interesting story line, to keep you on the edge of your seat.
One interesting thing about movies is that we begin to feel that they are happening to us, or at least to the characters in the movie. In fact, if we think back about the movies we saw, our minds will fill in the scenes between the actual movie scenes -- because that is what happens to us in real life. We actually have to eat, burp, etc, and it takes more than a moment to go from one place to another. We actually create a reality for these characters that never existed.
Newspapers (writers and editors) also try to shape our perception of events, but in this case real events. For example, The New York Times made its top of the page news when Israel refused entry to the two congresswomen from Minnesota (all day). They even were sure to mention Congresswoman Tlaib's vile tweet when she refused to visit her grandmother. I thought the real news was that her supporters didn't even want her to visit her grandmother if it means actually speaking with an Israeli representative to do so. I guess she was going to parachute out of her plane instead of landing at Ben-Gurion Airport, first. When explaining the law used to bar the two women, The New York Times continued their biased reporting when they added the word "just" as in the decision to bar them "rests on a law passed just two years ago." (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/world/middleeast/bds-israel-boycott.html). The editors and writers of the times were really trying to put out the message that Israel is a really bad place and the law is not really a valid law since it was passed "recently." Where else would they write that?
Here, our own reality is quite sad. A young man was murdered outside our town, just on the road to the town across the hill. Two neighbors from the town over were just run-over. A young woman was just murdered in an explosion while out for a swim. Ihttps://www.timesofisrael.com/three-israelis-seriously-hurt-in-explosion-at-west-bank-spring/).
In response, our Prime Minister says that: "We will reach them. Our long arm will pay them their dues.” His word were not IRONY? Avi Issachoroff points out that our Prime Minister and his government have transferred 10s of millions of dollars to buy quiet from Gaza (https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/selling-the-fantasy-of-transfer/). But the money used to buy quiet in Gaza is being used to murder Israelis in Judea and Samaria. We're paying all right -- both ways.
We all know that movies are not truly reality, but to paraphrase my late mother-in-law: time has passed and new generations have arisen, but there has always been terrorism -- and now our own policies facilitate its vile ends.
Barry Lynn
They call them the "Dog Days of Summer," and our own dog was quick to take advantage of the heat to stretch out in the sun. She actually objects to the fact that the Romans named these days after the brightest star in the sky: the Star Sirius, or the "Dog Star," rather than her ancestors.
The heat she so enjoys has been courtesy of low pressure situated to our east and a persistent counter-clockwise flow around it. Such winds are good to bring the heat, and they also limit the build up of wave heights, so this is a perfect time to go to the beach. By the way, we leave our dog at home because nothing smells worse than a dog that "smells like a dog" (and wet at that).
While slightly cooler weather may meet our mid-week time, we can expect a return to hotter weather again as the month of August ends, and turns into September.
Really -- it's hot, and it was actually a good time to head over to Cinema City in Jerusalem for a movie. We saw "Dora and the Lost City of Gold." I thought that it would be a movie for our teenage girls, but I couldn't stop laughing. In fact, folks young and not so were laughing so loudly it was sometimes hard to hear the movie.
Yet, it was both a fun movie, and a funny -- make you laugh movie, especially when the producers mixed real live scenes with a bit of fantasy. It also had an interesting story line, to keep you on the edge of your seat.
One interesting thing about movies is that we begin to feel that they are happening to us, or at least to the characters in the movie. In fact, if we think back about the movies we saw, our minds will fill in the scenes between the actual movie scenes -- because that is what happens to us in real life. We actually have to eat, burp, etc, and it takes more than a moment to go from one place to another. We actually create a reality for these characters that never existed.
Newspapers (writers and editors) also try to shape our perception of events, but in this case real events. For example, The New York Times made its top of the page news when Israel refused entry to the two congresswomen from Minnesota (all day). They even were sure to mention Congresswoman Tlaib's vile tweet when she refused to visit her grandmother. I thought the real news was that her supporters didn't even want her to visit her grandmother if it means actually speaking with an Israeli representative to do so. I guess she was going to parachute out of her plane instead of landing at Ben-Gurion Airport, first. When explaining the law used to bar the two women, The New York Times continued their biased reporting when they added the word "just" as in the decision to bar them "rests on a law passed just two years ago." (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/world/middleeast/bds-israel-boycott.html). The editors and writers of the times were really trying to put out the message that Israel is a really bad place and the law is not really a valid law since it was passed "recently." Where else would they write that?
Here, our own reality is quite sad. A young man was murdered outside our town, just on the road to the town across the hill. Two neighbors from the town over were just run-over. A young woman was just murdered in an explosion while out for a swim. Ihttps://www.timesofisrael.com/three-israelis-seriously-hurt-in-explosion-at-west-bank-spring/).
In response, our Prime Minister says that: "We will reach them. Our long arm will pay them their dues.” His word were not IRONY? Avi Issachoroff points out that our Prime Minister and his government have transferred 10s of millions of dollars to buy quiet from Gaza (https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/selling-the-fantasy-of-transfer/). But the money used to buy quiet in Gaza is being used to murder Israelis in Judea and Samaria. We're paying all right -- both ways.
We all know that movies are not truly reality, but to paraphrase my late mother-in-law: time has passed and new generations have arisen, but there has always been terrorism -- and now our own policies facilitate its vile ends.
Barry Lynn
Friday, July 26, 2019
Weather It Is (Stings Like a Bee)
Good Morning:
Europe is sweltering under intense heat. It must certainly be a manifestation of global warming (run amok). After all, where could such hot temperatures come from?
It turns out that while Europe is sweltering other places are not, and are actually unusually cool for summertime temperatures. For instance, countries in the eastern Mediterranean -- on the other side of the ridge located along the western spine of Europe -- are benefiting from winds blowing from a more northerly direction. Moreover, it doesn't look next week's warmth will last more than a couple of days before temperatures cool back down both in coastal areas and the Jerusalem mountains. I just came back from Atlanta Georgia which was so cool we almost needed to put on a light coat as evening set in. Unheard of in July!
So, is it because of global warming? The very strong and northward penetrating ridge of hot air over Europe is actually adjacent to an unusually deep and cold low pressure system west of England -- but no one but jumping fishes live over the ocean. The world has warmed since the 1970s (when it was unusually chilly), and the added energy could be amplifying the waviness of the circulation patterns. Yet, the warmth is no where near what was predicted by the climate change models, which also have failed to predict the "ups and downs" of the temperature changes over the last 20 or so years.
So, what is the reality of the situation? What is our own reality that we personally experience?
One of the laws of Kashrut is that bugs, like crabs, etc, are not kosher and should not be eaten. This morning I picked some wild raspberries, gave them a quick glance, and then ate them in one lump. I told myself that they tasted really good, but wondered how I could possibly tell if I had eaten a bug.
Then, shortly thereafter, a very large bug flew into my mouth (a person has to breathe while running). I managed to eventually cough the bug out, or perhaps the bug flew out on its own, but not before the bug-bee stung the inside of my mouth. It was one angry bee, and my mouth was perhaps too big.
Some years ago, Russell Baker wonder where all the lost socks went, and so have others (https://www.dailypress.com/news/dp-xpm-20090209-2009-02-09-0902080158-story.html). Surely, they haven't just disappeared!
Or, had they? Perhaps there is a whole slew of unmatched socks in someone's reality. A colleague of mine lost his keys, only to find them the next day in a pocket of his bag he had already checked a dozen times. My missing coat eventually "showed-up," and so have other things that had no right being found in the place where they were supposedly lost.
A good number of folks read books, and a good number go to movies. Did you ever try to change the ending of a book or movie after you've read it or watched it, but didn't like the ending? You can't do it, yet we all know that fictional books and movies are not real because the characters never go to the bathroom.
Are dreams real? They certainly seem so. Yet, most of us usually wake up from them.
I and many others suppose that thing that are real are things that we observe. But is this true? For instance, when very small particles are shot one at a time at 2 small slits, they will produce a wave like pattern on a detector. However, when scientists try to observed which slit the particle goes through, the wave like pattern disappears (called "wave function collapse"). This happens even if the second slit is opened after the particle should have passed through the the first slit! (https://physicsworld.com/a/do-atoms-going-through-a-double-slit-know-if-they-are-being-observed/)
The end result is that one needs to accept "backwards causation," or (perhaps) the idea of Everett that the wave-function doesn't collapse when an observation is made, but universes splits into different realities (I would be writing from one of them, but you might be reading this from another). If you wonder where could all of these universes be, just remember that "our" universe is supposedly expanding (but into what)?
One idea in Jewish thought is that people are rewarded or punished for their behavior -- and if not in this world then in the world that exists after death. Yet, there is also an idea that people do not really have free choice, which would ironically be consistent with the idea that we are just part of a probability continuum that describes some deeper reality (Everett's many world hypothesis). I don't know which idea of reality is correct, but I do know that we have a number of unmatched socks and that the bee stung me -- and that it hurts.
Barry Lynn
Europe is sweltering under intense heat. It must certainly be a manifestation of global warming (run amok). After all, where could such hot temperatures come from?
It turns out that while Europe is sweltering other places are not, and are actually unusually cool for summertime temperatures. For instance, countries in the eastern Mediterranean -- on the other side of the ridge located along the western spine of Europe -- are benefiting from winds blowing from a more northerly direction. Moreover, it doesn't look next week's warmth will last more than a couple of days before temperatures cool back down both in coastal areas and the Jerusalem mountains. I just came back from Atlanta Georgia which was so cool we almost needed to put on a light coat as evening set in. Unheard of in July!
So, is it because of global warming? The very strong and northward penetrating ridge of hot air over Europe is actually adjacent to an unusually deep and cold low pressure system west of England -- but no one but jumping fishes live over the ocean. The world has warmed since the 1970s (when it was unusually chilly), and the added energy could be amplifying the waviness of the circulation patterns. Yet, the warmth is no where near what was predicted by the climate change models, which also have failed to predict the "ups and downs" of the temperature changes over the last 20 or so years.
So, what is the reality of the situation? What is our own reality that we personally experience?
One of the laws of Kashrut is that bugs, like crabs, etc, are not kosher and should not be eaten. This morning I picked some wild raspberries, gave them a quick glance, and then ate them in one lump. I told myself that they tasted really good, but wondered how I could possibly tell if I had eaten a bug.
Then, shortly thereafter, a very large bug flew into my mouth (a person has to breathe while running). I managed to eventually cough the bug out, or perhaps the bug flew out on its own, but not before the bug-bee stung the inside of my mouth. It was one angry bee, and my mouth was perhaps too big.
Some years ago, Russell Baker wonder where all the lost socks went, and so have others (https://www.dailypress.com/news/dp-xpm-20090209-2009-02-09-0902080158-story.html). Surely, they haven't just disappeared!
Or, had they? Perhaps there is a whole slew of unmatched socks in someone's reality. A colleague of mine lost his keys, only to find them the next day in a pocket of his bag he had already checked a dozen times. My missing coat eventually "showed-up," and so have other things that had no right being found in the place where they were supposedly lost.
A good number of folks read books, and a good number go to movies. Did you ever try to change the ending of a book or movie after you've read it or watched it, but didn't like the ending? You can't do it, yet we all know that fictional books and movies are not real because the characters never go to the bathroom.
Are dreams real? They certainly seem so. Yet, most of us usually wake up from them.
I and many others suppose that thing that are real are things that we observe. But is this true? For instance, when very small particles are shot one at a time at 2 small slits, they will produce a wave like pattern on a detector. However, when scientists try to observed which slit the particle goes through, the wave like pattern disappears (called "wave function collapse"). This happens even if the second slit is opened after the particle should have passed through the the first slit! (https://physicsworld.com/a/do-atoms-going-through-a-double-slit-know-if-they-are-being-observed/)
The end result is that one needs to accept "backwards causation," or (perhaps) the idea of Everett that the wave-function doesn't collapse when an observation is made, but universes splits into different realities (I would be writing from one of them, but you might be reading this from another). If you wonder where could all of these universes be, just remember that "our" universe is supposedly expanding (but into what)?
One idea in Jewish thought is that people are rewarded or punished for their behavior -- and if not in this world then in the world that exists after death. Yet, there is also an idea that people do not really have free choice, which would ironically be consistent with the idea that we are just part of a probability continuum that describes some deeper reality (Everett's many world hypothesis). I don't know which idea of reality is correct, but I do know that we have a number of unmatched socks and that the bee stung me -- and that it hurts.
Barry Lynn
Thursday, June 13, 2019
Weather It Is (Let's Vote)
Good Afternoon:
I had the chance to visit Jaffa Street in Jerusalem today. After a quick appointment, my daughter and I passed through the Shuk. If you happen to live there, it's a great place to shop for just about anything fresh that you might need. You can even buy Chocolate Halva. If you don't live there, there is a new parking garage right near by -- just a two minute walk to the Shuk (near Rechov HaRav Shmuel Baruchk St).
We visited the a Ministry of Health center. There was a sign that said: "take care on our cleanliness" as you entered the bathroom, but someone forgot to fill the soap dispenser. Irony, to say the least.
One couldn't help but notice, though, the absolutely beautiful weather (we even slept the night with the window breeze). There are some clouds in the sky as well, as a weak trough of low pressure makes it way through our area. However, thunderstorms associated with the trough are located over Cyprus and Turkey -- not exactly in our backyard.
While the weather in the lower atmosphere meanders between hotter and not so hot summer weather, the middle and upper atmosphere are forecast to warm. This means that we'll be heading into Israeli summer, where temperatures are pleasantly warm, but skies remain mostly blue.
This could be the calm before the storm. I don't know if you noticed, but the government decided to stop all fishing in the waters of Gaza (punish!) because of the continued launch of incendiary balloons and even one balloon that exploded mid-air with a bomb attached to it. I wonder when we'll take away their balloons as well.
One our political parties, "Israeli Beitenu," actually decided to take a stand -- in favor or sharing the burden of protecting our country (with the Haredim). However, it is not clear if they decided on principle or just to stick it to the Prime Minister (in the hopes of deposing him in the next election).
Ironically, if it wasn't for the court ruling that the current law goes against the spirit of the Basic Laws (a pseudo constitution) then Mr. Lieberman wouldn't have had a leg to stand on. Yet, he doesn't seem to care very much for preserving the power of the court to overrule certain laws and regulations.
There seems to be an idea going around the learned folks that Democracy means the right of the majority to decide what's right and wrong, what's the law and what's unlawful.
Yet, a moment's thought will disprove this notion. The origin of Democracy evolved from an idea that the people should decide, rather than a king, authoritarian ruler, or dictator. However, one needs to ask: "who are the people?" They are individuals. Hence, there is a contradiction: how do you protect the individual from a group of other individuals who would write laws negating the purpose of a democracy in the first place.
This became obvious to those whose sole aim was to protect citizens and states from the tyranny of the Federal Government of the newly formed United States. After agreeing on a constitution, they soon realized that it wasn't sufficient: it enabled a "tyranny of the majority." For this reason, amendments were proposed and added to the constitution, which are referred to as the "Bill of Rights" (https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/billofrights). The Bill of Rights protect American citizens from arbitrary searches and seizures, excesses fines and punishments, cruel and unusual punishments, and guarantee the rights to practice religion without government interference, to assemble, to speak, and to petition the government and (most importantly) the courts.
The ultimate protector of the individual is the court, and the court requires the lawful power to stop government actions that trample the rights of the individual, regardless of whether that individuals is represented by the ruling party or not. (By the way, I do agree that our court selection process required changes (open and representative), which the previous Justice Minister succeeded in doing).
If there is a "court override" and truly the majority or ruling party has unlimited power to legislate, then the ultimate expression of this power is to pass a law invalidating the individuals right to choose new representatives (cancelling elections outright) or to ensconce the leader of the government for life (as in China). Or, if this is not graphic enough: pass laws legalizing the murder of the Jewish people -- as done in Nazi Germany.
Be careful what you wish for,
Barry Lynn
I had the chance to visit Jaffa Street in Jerusalem today. After a quick appointment, my daughter and I passed through the Shuk. If you happen to live there, it's a great place to shop for just about anything fresh that you might need. You can even buy Chocolate Halva. If you don't live there, there is a new parking garage right near by -- just a two minute walk to the Shuk (near Rechov HaRav Shmuel Baruchk St).
We visited the a Ministry of Health center. There was a sign that said: "take care on our cleanliness" as you entered the bathroom, but someone forgot to fill the soap dispenser. Irony, to say the least.
One couldn't help but notice, though, the absolutely beautiful weather (we even slept the night with the window breeze). There are some clouds in the sky as well, as a weak trough of low pressure makes it way through our area. However, thunderstorms associated with the trough are located over Cyprus and Turkey -- not exactly in our backyard.
While the weather in the lower atmosphere meanders between hotter and not so hot summer weather, the middle and upper atmosphere are forecast to warm. This means that we'll be heading into Israeli summer, where temperatures are pleasantly warm, but skies remain mostly blue.
This could be the calm before the storm. I don't know if you noticed, but the government decided to stop all fishing in the waters of Gaza (punish!) because of the continued launch of incendiary balloons and even one balloon that exploded mid-air with a bomb attached to it. I wonder when we'll take away their balloons as well.
One our political parties, "Israeli Beitenu," actually decided to take a stand -- in favor or sharing the burden of protecting our country (with the Haredim). However, it is not clear if they decided on principle or just to stick it to the Prime Minister (in the hopes of deposing him in the next election).
Ironically, if it wasn't for the court ruling that the current law goes against the spirit of the Basic Laws (a pseudo constitution) then Mr. Lieberman wouldn't have had a leg to stand on. Yet, he doesn't seem to care very much for preserving the power of the court to overrule certain laws and regulations.
There seems to be an idea going around the learned folks that Democracy means the right of the majority to decide what's right and wrong, what's the law and what's unlawful.
Yet, a moment's thought will disprove this notion. The origin of Democracy evolved from an idea that the people should decide, rather than a king, authoritarian ruler, or dictator. However, one needs to ask: "who are the people?" They are individuals. Hence, there is a contradiction: how do you protect the individual from a group of other individuals who would write laws negating the purpose of a democracy in the first place.
This became obvious to those whose sole aim was to protect citizens and states from the tyranny of the Federal Government of the newly formed United States. After agreeing on a constitution, they soon realized that it wasn't sufficient: it enabled a "tyranny of the majority." For this reason, amendments were proposed and added to the constitution, which are referred to as the "Bill of Rights" (https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/billofrights). The Bill of Rights protect American citizens from arbitrary searches and seizures, excesses fines and punishments, cruel and unusual punishments, and guarantee the rights to practice religion without government interference, to assemble, to speak, and to petition the government and (most importantly) the courts.
The ultimate protector of the individual is the court, and the court requires the lawful power to stop government actions that trample the rights of the individual, regardless of whether that individuals is represented by the ruling party or not. (By the way, I do agree that our court selection process required changes (open and representative), which the previous Justice Minister succeeded in doing).
If there is a "court override" and truly the majority or ruling party has unlimited power to legislate, then the ultimate expression of this power is to pass a law invalidating the individuals right to choose new representatives (cancelling elections outright) or to ensconce the leader of the government for life (as in China). Or, if this is not graphic enough: pass laws legalizing the murder of the Jewish people -- as done in Nazi Germany.
Be careful what you wish for,
Barry Lynn
Friday, May 17, 2019
Weather It Is (High Heat)
Good Afternoon:
Cooler, westerly winds are upon us this Shabbat. They will bring a welcome respite of a few days from the heat. However, On Monday, high pressure will begin to build eastward off the African continent. It will intensify during the week, and the heat should peak up on or about Shabbat.
Our local area model in combination with the Global Ensemble Forecast Systems model suggests that there is a 100% chance that temperatures will be between 36 and 40 degrees Celcius in Jerusalem on Friday. In the coastal plains (just eastward of the sea-breeze), temperatures could exceed 40 C.
A cool front should pass through late Friday or Shabbat, returning temperatures to more comfortable levels.
There could even be a few rain showers.
Recently, there was a lot of hot air blowing from the pages of the MA'AN News Agency (a Palestinian Authority "mouthpiece." The headline said: "Right-wing Israelis storm Solomon's Pools near Bethlehem." The article noted that dozens of "settlers" entered and held religious prayers at Solomon's pools (most likely built by King Herod, named after the "Biblical Solomon."). They were protected by "heavily armed Israeli forces."
It all sounds very sinister.
Except that it wasn't.
It turns out that during the Oslo negotiations, those doing the negotiating on the Israel side were not very aware of Jewish history, and placed both the pools and the Rachel's Cave on their (Palestinian) side of the map. When Chanan Porat (deceased; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanan_Porat) objected, the line was drawn correctly at Rachel's Cave, but through the name on the map, rather than around the pools themselves. So, it came to be that our visit to the edge of the pool may have crossed into "Area A."
A large group, of which I was part, was excited to visit the pools on the morning of Israeli Independence Day. Our homes are located in Gush Etzion, which was populated with Jewish towns until they were destroyed during the Arab Israeli war of 1948. We actually live in nice homes with gardens, and schools, and there are restaurants and stores. I usually shave as well, although some people have beards and would fit nicely in The New York Times "Settler" exhibit page.
That morning, we climbed down the mountain from Efrat and made our way to peek in one of the lower pools. It was pretty awesome to see such a large pool, but it would have been nicer if it was full of water and someone was available from whom to rent fishing rods or a paddle boat.
The article mentioned, as noted, that we were accompanied by soldiers. This was actually so we wouldn't be killed by our neighbors (the Palestinians) -- a technicality, but an important one.
The article also noted that "the internationally recognized Palestinian territories have been occupied by the Israeli military since 1967. " Actually, two countries recognized Jordan's occupation of the "West Bank" (or Judea and Samaria) prior to 1967 (without any reference to Palestinians). Since, then, the ownership of the land has been in dispute. The international community (and even many Israelis) would like to give at least part of the land to the Palestinians, but they won't accept it unless they get all the rest (on both sides of the old Armistice line).
It turns out that immediately after World War II the major powers were hoping to divide the land between Jordan and the Mediterranean among Jews and local Arabs (now, referred to as Palestinians). But, when the latter (and surrounding Arab States) refused to countenance any Jewish independence in what the Romans named "Palestine," the Palestinians lost their chance for an independent state. Ironically, it wasn't Israel that prevented the Palestinians from having their own state in part of the land upon the signing of the Armistice agreement in 1949, but the Egyptians and Jordanians, who ruled both Gaza and the West Bank (as well as part of Jerusalem), respectively, until 1967.
These governments supported the Palestinian Liberation Organization in their quest to destroy the State of Israel -- even the one that existed prior to the 1967 war. A quest that hasn't changed until now.
Barry Lynn
Cooler, westerly winds are upon us this Shabbat. They will bring a welcome respite of a few days from the heat. However, On Monday, high pressure will begin to build eastward off the African continent. It will intensify during the week, and the heat should peak up on or about Shabbat.
Our local area model in combination with the Global Ensemble Forecast Systems model suggests that there is a 100% chance that temperatures will be between 36 and 40 degrees Celcius in Jerusalem on Friday. In the coastal plains (just eastward of the sea-breeze), temperatures could exceed 40 C.
A cool front should pass through late Friday or Shabbat, returning temperatures to more comfortable levels.
There could even be a few rain showers.
Recently, there was a lot of hot air blowing from the pages of the MA'AN News Agency (a Palestinian Authority "mouthpiece." The headline said: "Right-wing Israelis storm Solomon's Pools near Bethlehem." The article noted that dozens of "settlers" entered and held religious prayers at Solomon's pools (most likely built by King Herod, named after the "Biblical Solomon."). They were protected by "heavily armed Israeli forces."
It all sounds very sinister.
Except that it wasn't.
It turns out that during the Oslo negotiations, those doing the negotiating on the Israel side were not very aware of Jewish history, and placed both the pools and the Rachel's Cave on their (Palestinian) side of the map. When Chanan Porat (deceased; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanan_Porat) objected, the line was drawn correctly at Rachel's Cave, but through the name on the map, rather than around the pools themselves. So, it came to be that our visit to the edge of the pool may have crossed into "Area A."
A large group, of which I was part, was excited to visit the pools on the morning of Israeli Independence Day. Our homes are located in Gush Etzion, which was populated with Jewish towns until they were destroyed during the Arab Israeli war of 1948. We actually live in nice homes with gardens, and schools, and there are restaurants and stores. I usually shave as well, although some people have beards and would fit nicely in The New York Times "Settler" exhibit page.
That morning, we climbed down the mountain from Efrat and made our way to peek in one of the lower pools. It was pretty awesome to see such a large pool, but it would have been nicer if it was full of water and someone was available from whom to rent fishing rods or a paddle boat.
The article mentioned, as noted, that we were accompanied by soldiers. This was actually so we wouldn't be killed by our neighbors (the Palestinians) -- a technicality, but an important one.
The article also noted that "the internationally recognized Palestinian territories have been occupied by the Israeli military since 1967. " Actually, two countries recognized Jordan's occupation of the "West Bank" (or Judea and Samaria) prior to 1967 (without any reference to Palestinians). Since, then, the ownership of the land has been in dispute. The international community (and even many Israelis) would like to give at least part of the land to the Palestinians, but they won't accept it unless they get all the rest (on both sides of the old Armistice line).
It turns out that immediately after World War II the major powers were hoping to divide the land between Jordan and the Mediterranean among Jews and local Arabs (now, referred to as Palestinians). But, when the latter (and surrounding Arab States) refused to countenance any Jewish independence in what the Romans named "Palestine," the Palestinians lost their chance for an independent state. Ironically, it wasn't Israel that prevented the Palestinians from having their own state in part of the land upon the signing of the Armistice agreement in 1949, but the Egyptians and Jordanians, who ruled both Gaza and the West Bank (as well as part of Jerusalem), respectively, until 1967.
These governments supported the Palestinian Liberation Organization in their quest to destroy the State of Israel -- even the one that existed prior to the 1967 war. A quest that hasn't changed until now.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, May 8, 2019
Weather It Is (Storm Clouds)
Good Morning:
The hot winds of war quickly cooled off on Tuesday, as winds shifted from the south into the northwest. A trough of lower pressure and colder air moved into our area, but dry southwesterly winds at upper levels meant that the trough arrived without any rain.
As we move on past Shabbat, high pressure should build eastward from Africa, bringing warmer temperatures. Low pressure should then develop to our southeast and then expand westward bringing even summertime temperatures by the middle of next week.
The hot weather and light westerly winds will be perfect for incendiary balloon launching from Gaza. The old joke is that we "cease" and they "fire." In this case, balloon launches from Gaza literally bring fire across our border.
Back in 2005, prior to the Israeli disengagement from Gaza, there were those who said that the Gazan's would not be soon courteously sending our leftover suitcases, but large numbers of missiles. Rather than having just one the most highest density of people within a relatively small area, it would also have one of the highest density of missiles, ready to launch, whenever the situation "called" for it.
These people were ridiculed, and the standard answer was: "if they shoot one missile, we'll know what to do." Really?
The last few days saw the latest installment of the ongoing Palestinian war against Israel. There was the war of 2008, and 2011, and 2014, with another mini-war these last few days. Each time, the government said it was attacking just enough to stop missiles, but refrained from removing Hamas from power. Each time, a so-called ceasefire was followed by more attacks, and each time the number of missiles and their explosive power has grown substantially.
The problem is that people, but especially policy makers, like to think linearly. What will come will be proportional to what was, and we'll muddle through as always. The problem is that destructive power doesn't have to grow proportionally, but can grow exponentially, and instead of homes being destroyed whole apartment buildings will probably be destroyed in the next round.
After the previous exchange of missiles and Israeli attacks, Israel agreed to allow Qatar to provide money to Hamas in exchange for quiet. Of course, this wasn't a true quiet (the violent border protests continued), and missiles were launched by accident (lightning, they said, and a mis-set timer).
It is interesting to examine news reports from the last week, to better understand where we're going. On May 5th, Palestinian Islamic Jihad threatened “The resistance is on the verge of a new level in facing aggression; a level that could lead to open war,” Mosab Al Braim tells the Hamas-linked al-Risala daily. “It will hurt the enemy like our people are hurting.” (Times of Israel). Notice, he refers to those firing the missiles as the "resistance," in contrast to the "aggressors," Israel, neatly inverting the reality. Oh, of course his people are hurting because Israel fought back to stop the true aggressor's missile fire.
So, the Palestinians of Gaza are now justifying war, based on a falsehood, but there are many people who will swallow the lie.
Then, the Palestinians layout their "blackmail" position: "“The battle will not end until the occupation responds affirmatively to our people’s demands" (Times of Israel). Until Israel gives us money (to pay our soldiers) , materials (to build more missiles), open borders (to import anti-tank weapons), etc, we'll keep firing.
Our Prime Minister responds to the mayhem of the war (death and destruction in Israeli cities) with the following: "Israel had reinstated its controversial policy of targeted killings and warned that the 'rules of the game' vis-a-vis the Gaza Strip have changed." https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-pushes-back-on-gaza-ceasefire-criticism-says-rules-of-game-have-changed/. Is it really a game when young men are blown up running to bomb shelters? He then crowed about how many "terror towers" Israel destroyed, and having killed dozens of Palestinian fighters. He overlooks that he has been the Prime Minister since 2009, and has been on watch while Hamas and Islamic Jihad have morphed from a swarm of Mosquitoes to a swarm of killer bees. But, in the next sentence he says that this is just a pause, and that the "campaign" is not over.
Why the pause? The concurrent arrival of Israel Remembrance and Independence day (and Eurovision contest), and the Muslim month of Ramadan. Bad timing! Better wait until summertime.
So, what is the end of this game like? Today, Islamic Jihad stated that “The last escalation was only a live fire drill in preparation for the major campaign that is coming,” and everything was fully coordinated with Hamas (https://www.timesofisrael.com/islamic-jihad-warns-of-war-during-summer-calls-last-flareup-live-fire-drill/).
In a total disconnect, the Israeli Defense Forces warned that "that war with the impoverished Hamas-controlled enclave could be back on the horizon in days or weeks if Israel did not work to ease living conditions there." As if Hamas and Islamic Jihad care at all about the living conditions of those they use as "living shields."
So, now we have it: the Gaza Palestinian army has announced that war is coming, and that they plan to bombard our major cities and installations with missiles. Perhaps they will invade the border towns as well? In the meantime, we'll keep supplying them with power, water, food, materials, and money so that they can be well-stocked up for the war.
Sometimes, people buy small pythons or boa constrictors for pets. Sometime, people buy baby lions. They figure if they just feed them, the cute cats will grow up to be a large kitty cat..
But, then, the snake swallows the person instead of the rat, while the lion turns around and eats its owner.
The hot winds of war quickly cooled off on Tuesday, as winds shifted from the south into the northwest. A trough of lower pressure and colder air moved into our area, but dry southwesterly winds at upper levels meant that the trough arrived without any rain.
As we move on past Shabbat, high pressure should build eastward from Africa, bringing warmer temperatures. Low pressure should then develop to our southeast and then expand westward bringing even summertime temperatures by the middle of next week.
The hot weather and light westerly winds will be perfect for incendiary balloon launching from Gaza. The old joke is that we "cease" and they "fire." In this case, balloon launches from Gaza literally bring fire across our border.
Back in 2005, prior to the Israeli disengagement from Gaza, there were those who said that the Gazan's would not be soon courteously sending our leftover suitcases, but large numbers of missiles. Rather than having just one the most highest density of people within a relatively small area, it would also have one of the highest density of missiles, ready to launch, whenever the situation "called" for it.
These people were ridiculed, and the standard answer was: "if they shoot one missile, we'll know what to do." Really?
The last few days saw the latest installment of the ongoing Palestinian war against Israel. There was the war of 2008, and 2011, and 2014, with another mini-war these last few days. Each time, the government said it was attacking just enough to stop missiles, but refrained from removing Hamas from power. Each time, a so-called ceasefire was followed by more attacks, and each time the number of missiles and their explosive power has grown substantially.
The problem is that people, but especially policy makers, like to think linearly. What will come will be proportional to what was, and we'll muddle through as always. The problem is that destructive power doesn't have to grow proportionally, but can grow exponentially, and instead of homes being destroyed whole apartment buildings will probably be destroyed in the next round.
After the previous exchange of missiles and Israeli attacks, Israel agreed to allow Qatar to provide money to Hamas in exchange for quiet. Of course, this wasn't a true quiet (the violent border protests continued), and missiles were launched by accident (lightning, they said, and a mis-set timer).
It is interesting to examine news reports from the last week, to better understand where we're going. On May 5th, Palestinian Islamic Jihad threatened “The resistance is on the verge of a new level in facing aggression; a level that could lead to open war,” Mosab Al Braim tells the Hamas-linked al-Risala daily. “It will hurt the enemy like our people are hurting.” (Times of Israel). Notice, he refers to those firing the missiles as the "resistance," in contrast to the "aggressors," Israel, neatly inverting the reality. Oh, of course his people are hurting because Israel fought back to stop the true aggressor's missile fire.
So, the Palestinians of Gaza are now justifying war, based on a falsehood, but there are many people who will swallow the lie.
Then, the Palestinians layout their "blackmail" position: "“The battle will not end until the occupation responds affirmatively to our people’s demands" (Times of Israel). Until Israel gives us money (to pay our soldiers) , materials (to build more missiles), open borders (to import anti-tank weapons), etc, we'll keep firing.
Our Prime Minister responds to the mayhem of the war (death and destruction in Israeli cities) with the following: "Israel had reinstated its controversial policy of targeted killings and warned that the 'rules of the game' vis-a-vis the Gaza Strip have changed." https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-pushes-back-on-gaza-ceasefire-criticism-says-rules-of-game-have-changed/. Is it really a game when young men are blown up running to bomb shelters? He then crowed about how many "terror towers" Israel destroyed, and having killed dozens of Palestinian fighters. He overlooks that he has been the Prime Minister since 2009, and has been on watch while Hamas and Islamic Jihad have morphed from a swarm of Mosquitoes to a swarm of killer bees. But, in the next sentence he says that this is just a pause, and that the "campaign" is not over.
Why the pause? The concurrent arrival of Israel Remembrance and Independence day (and Eurovision contest), and the Muslim month of Ramadan. Bad timing! Better wait until summertime.
So, what is the end of this game like? Today, Islamic Jihad stated that “The last escalation was only a live fire drill in preparation for the major campaign that is coming,” and everything was fully coordinated with Hamas (https://www.timesofisrael.com/islamic-jihad-warns-of-war-during-summer-calls-last-flareup-live-fire-drill/).
In a total disconnect, the Israeli Defense Forces warned that "that war with the impoverished Hamas-controlled enclave could be back on the horizon in days or weeks if Israel did not work to ease living conditions there." As if Hamas and Islamic Jihad care at all about the living conditions of those they use as "living shields."
So, now we have it: the Gaza Palestinian army has announced that war is coming, and that they plan to bombard our major cities and installations with missiles. Perhaps they will invade the border towns as well? In the meantime, we'll keep supplying them with power, water, food, materials, and money so that they can be well-stocked up for the war.
Sometimes, people buy small pythons or boa constrictors for pets. Sometime, people buy baby lions. They figure if they just feed them, the cute cats will grow up to be a large kitty cat..
But, then, the snake swallows the person instead of the rat, while the lion turns around and eats its owner.
Are we ready to fight Gaza? Are we ready to rid ourselves of Hamas and its partner in terror Islamic Jihad? Seems doable, we'll just send in the army if it really gets bad -- we've got everything under control. Except in our non-linear world might one consider that Hizbollah of Lebanon will attack this summer at the same time? Until, we've bought quiet by paying ever increasing amounts of blackmail, but soon smoke filled storm clouds will fill our skies.
Barry Lynn
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