Good Evening:
The weather these last few days has been a bit stormy. Just today, we had thundershowers dotting the area around Jerusalem, and yesterday even saw some rain in the center of the country.
There is also a bit of a nip in the air, and yet winter doesn't really feel like it has arrived. Moreover, there is a blocking high centered to our north which is basically putting any weather changes on hold. It is associated with warmer, drier weather in southeastern Europe, including Israel, and wetter and colder weather in western Europe (on the backside of the high is a trough). Yaakov Cantor of the "Israel Winter Weather" group wrote that "three factors favor a higher probability of high pressure and at times, a “blocking high” from Greenland to Scandinavia. First, we are near the minimum in the sunspot cycle, which in the past 100 years correlates with high pressure in those areas. Second, the atmospheric pattern from this spring into early fall featured frequent episodes of such blocking highs, and such patterns tend to persist and recur. Finally, the ocean temperature pattern with abnormally warm waters from near Greenland to Iceland, and abnormally cool from off the coast of southeast Canada to near France, favors a better than usual chance of blocking highs this winter." He expects this type of blocking pattern to persist into late December or early January.
And yet, there is some indication that the block will, at least temporarily, be replaced by a trough of low pressure that could bring rain from sometime next week until the first week of December.
But don't worry that we won't have any weather at all -- just prior to our recent showers, we had weather of a different type: missiles, which seem to have morphed now from a "nuisance" (unless you were hit by one) to be able to explode with the destructive power of a small tornado. The good news is that our Prime Minister was heard to says: "Our enemies got the message..."(https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-goals-of-gaza-operation-achieved-in-full-our-enemies-got-the-message/)..." and "I believe the message is starting to get across (https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-islamic-jihad-knows-israel-will-keeping-striking-with-no-mercy/),” that we are not to be trifled with. Except that the news following Shabbat was that HAMAS just fired at Beer Sheva. (https://www.timesofisrael.com/conflicting-claims-as-to-whether-hamas-leaders-okayed-rocket-fire-at-beersheba/). So, I am not sure that anyone is really listening to our Prime Minister, anymore.
Even more interesting is that the Media is bending over backwards to pretend that the ceasefire that "started" early Friday lasted through the continuing rocket fire emanating from Gaza. Look at the headline of this article in the "Times of Israel" (and it wasn't alone among media outlets): "Fresh rockets target south but shaky Gaza ceasefire appears to hold."
(https://www.timesofisrael.com/fresh-rocket-fire-targets-south-but-shaky-gaza-ceasefire-appears-to-hold/). The TOI article noted that the rocket fire was the fourth violation of the ceasefire. Either there is "ceasefire" or there isn't, or does the old, but not so-old joke still hold: "we cease and they fire?"
When does a stated policy become a thing of ridicule? When did we become an object of ridicule? Perhaps when it was claimed that if one rocket is fired from Gaza... we would return or attack with such ferocity.... or when the previous Prime Minister Olmert agreed to accept an economic separation between the Israelis living inside the area demarcated by the Green Line (the old Armistice Line) or outside it (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/eu-and-israel-end-trade-dispute-1.1152244) -- the end result being a process leading now to the European Court of Justice ruling that the building of Israel towns in Judea and Samaria -- the home of Jewish life going back to the time of the Bible is "characterized by the fact that they give concrete expression to a policy of population transfer conducted by that state outside its territory)" (https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-landmark-ruling-eus-top-court-says-settlement-product-labeling-mandatory/). Of course, the court forgot to note the irony that the only ones who engaged in population transfer were the Europeans. They transferred the Jews to the gas chambers.
It's not just us our policy makers and media that must have read George Orwell's book "1984." HAMAS says that that Israel will not choose when there will be a ceasefire; that the decision to carry out military campaigns remains in the hands of HAMAS (and Islamic Jihad), and “Israel bears the consequences and results of its ongoing aggression.” (https://www.timesofisrael.com/blamed-for-beersheba-rocket-fire-hamas-says-israel-wont-choose-timing-of-ops/).
So, let's summarize: the Israeli government claims that it will show "no mercy" and that "we will protect ourselves." But, we stopped the bombing very soon after it started and didn't attack HAMAS at all. The media claims that a "shaky" ceasefire still holds (https://www.timesofisrael.com/fresh-rocket-fire-targets-south-but-shaky-gaza-ceasefire-appears-to-hold/), but missile fire continues. HAMAS claims that it can attack us when ever it wants, but we would be the aggressor.
In the meantime, Islamic Jihad has developed a 300 kg bomb that can easily destroy a building (https://www.timesofisrael.com/islamic-jihad-used-new-rocket-with-300kg-warhead-during-fighting-report/).
Fortunately, we don't have any real tornados here. At least that is something.
Of course, as long as our leadership continue to blow hot air, and our media reassures us that skies are clear and sunny, we've got nothing to worry about.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, November 17, 2019
Sunday, November 10, 2019
Weather It Is (Will It Ever Rain?)
Good Afternoon:
I am sure that many of you are asking: "will it ever rain?" I see a few folks wearing boots, regardless of the heat, but others are enjoying the no jacket weather during the day and no need for an air conditioner at night.
Ever since I went over to the dark-side of the weather -- and took it upon myself the responsibility to decide when it will and and won't rain, I seem to be getting into more and more trouble. You see, the farmers want rain, and folks are itching for a change, but my wife doesn't like winter. Really, I don't think that people really appreciate the pressure I am under, but one iron-rule of marriage is don't upset the wife. So, I've had to be extra sensitive about turning fall into winter. Or, maybe that's summer into fall. I really don't know, I just know that I'm not sleeping late enough since the clocks changed.
With all this going on, someone this morning slipped me a note with a drawing of an arrow on it, pointing to a rain cloud, and a date: November 21st. Then, he says something like:"you've got to break a few eggs to make an omelette," and I'm wondering if he's speaking about my barometer or my bones.
Needless to say, I was a bit disturbed by this incident (and it happened at the Synagogue, too!).
So, I told my wife that I can only keep this guy off of me until about late Thursday, but then I've got to do my job, switch the winds from southeasterly to northwesterly, bring in some humidity, bring some showers, and then really open the faucet by late next week... "Or what," she asked: "that's what I'm worried about," I told her.
Just to make his point, I found this pile of snails feasting on a plate of lettuce and other tasty vegetables in my front garden. I don't know if you know, but where I come from these are slugs -- only these are all dressed up -- and what's another name for slugs -- bullets. You get my point.
While I'm on the subject, I might mention that snails are perfect for kids who'd rather take care of a pet than hug it. I was left wondering, though, how these snails all ended up at and on the plate at the same time. I just don't think it can happen naturally (which does indeed make me worry -- more). Snails move at a top speed of 1 meter per hour, and I find it it very hard to believe that these snails were just waiting for that plate of vegetables to appear in our garden. The only thing I can think of is that their antennae eyes also serve as radio-transmitters, and they must have a few lookouts ready to spread the word. From there, it's just a slimy slide away down the spider silk-line to dinner.
I really hope that they won't mind the rain.
Barry Lynn
I am sure that many of you are asking: "will it ever rain?" I see a few folks wearing boots, regardless of the heat, but others are enjoying the no jacket weather during the day and no need for an air conditioner at night.
Ever since I went over to the dark-side of the weather -- and took it upon myself the responsibility to decide when it will and and won't rain, I seem to be getting into more and more trouble. You see, the farmers want rain, and folks are itching for a change, but my wife doesn't like winter. Really, I don't think that people really appreciate the pressure I am under, but one iron-rule of marriage is don't upset the wife. So, I've had to be extra sensitive about turning fall into winter. Or, maybe that's summer into fall. I really don't know, I just know that I'm not sleeping late enough since the clocks changed.
With all this going on, someone this morning slipped me a note with a drawing of an arrow on it, pointing to a rain cloud, and a date: November 21st. Then, he says something like:"you've got to break a few eggs to make an omelette," and I'm wondering if he's speaking about my barometer or my bones.
Needless to say, I was a bit disturbed by this incident (and it happened at the Synagogue, too!).
So, I told my wife that I can only keep this guy off of me until about late Thursday, but then I've got to do my job, switch the winds from southeasterly to northwesterly, bring in some humidity, bring some showers, and then really open the faucet by late next week... "Or what," she asked: "that's what I'm worried about," I told her.
Just to make his point, I found this pile of snails feasting on a plate of lettuce and other tasty vegetables in my front garden. I don't know if you know, but where I come from these are slugs -- only these are all dressed up -- and what's another name for slugs -- bullets. You get my point.
While I'm on the subject, I might mention that snails are perfect for kids who'd rather take care of a pet than hug it. I was left wondering, though, how these snails all ended up at and on the plate at the same time. I just don't think it can happen naturally (which does indeed make me worry -- more). Snails move at a top speed of 1 meter per hour, and I find it it very hard to believe that these snails were just waiting for that plate of vegetables to appear in our garden. The only thing I can think of is that their antennae eyes also serve as radio-transmitters, and they must have a few lookouts ready to spread the word. From there, it's just a slimy slide away down the spider silk-line to dinner.
I really hope that they won't mind the rain.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Weather It Is (Summer of Winter)
Good Evening:
Summer or winter -- you decide. Seems like the mornings are getting colder as we move each day towards the official start of winter. In fact, our next light rain should be on the way to start next week. So, the weather will continue to feel like it should -- fall moving into winter.
Yet, after our early, rainy start to next week, temperatures should rise by five or six degrees as winds switch from northwest to easterly. Just when you want to lock the door on the summer wardrobe, someone will change the lock, and that will be a good thing. After all, who wants to be dressed too warmly when the weather isn't cooperating?
Moreover, the latest seasonal forecast from the ECMWF (https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/) shows a warmer than normal November, but heavier than normal rain amounts. Yet, that should be followed by a drier December and January, with temperatures near or above normal. What happened to our rainy winter?
Of course, this is all talk, and who really knows what the weather will bring. In fact, you know when you're in trouble when someone tells the weatherman to look out the window. That happened to me today.
Of course, it's hard enough to keep one's eyes open when the clocks change, especially for morning people who find themselves again waking up at 4 in the morning, instead of an early, with the birds 5 A.M. Just to make things worse, my wife pointed out that our neighbor is even more tired than normal because he's been getting up really early to pray, and followed this by a comment suggesting that it looks like there's even less hair on my head than just last month. I may have reached the moment in life when a haircut makes you look life you've got more hair than before.
As you know, people tend to minimize their own faults, while amplifying the faults of others. While that seems obvious, it tends to make for unrealistic expectations between couples. One half of a couple can think that they can do better, if they just find someone who just has so and so characteristics, forgetting that they are expecting all the good qualities of their partner to magically pass to the other (new) person.
This led me to ask the existential question: if you could trade up for a new wife or a new car, what should you do? This question didn't come out of the blue, but was part of a very deep and serious discussion about marriage, sometime difficulties in married life, and the rising divorce rate.
While it is true that not all people are good people, and not all pairings are good pairings, the answer is: "trade up for a new car." You know what you're getting and the two of you can enjoy a country ride together. In fact, doing things together, is sometimes the best answer. You might just find out how much you enjoy your spouse's company.
Barry Lynn
Summer or winter -- you decide. Seems like the mornings are getting colder as we move each day towards the official start of winter. In fact, our next light rain should be on the way to start next week. So, the weather will continue to feel like it should -- fall moving into winter.
Yet, after our early, rainy start to next week, temperatures should rise by five or six degrees as winds switch from northwest to easterly. Just when you want to lock the door on the summer wardrobe, someone will change the lock, and that will be a good thing. After all, who wants to be dressed too warmly when the weather isn't cooperating?
Moreover, the latest seasonal forecast from the ECMWF (https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/) shows a warmer than normal November, but heavier than normal rain amounts. Yet, that should be followed by a drier December and January, with temperatures near or above normal. What happened to our rainy winter?
Of course, this is all talk, and who really knows what the weather will bring. In fact, you know when you're in trouble when someone tells the weatherman to look out the window. That happened to me today.
Of course, it's hard enough to keep one's eyes open when the clocks change, especially for morning people who find themselves again waking up at 4 in the morning, instead of an early, with the birds 5 A.M. Just to make things worse, my wife pointed out that our neighbor is even more tired than normal because he's been getting up really early to pray, and followed this by a comment suggesting that it looks like there's even less hair on my head than just last month. I may have reached the moment in life when a haircut makes you look life you've got more hair than before.
As you know, people tend to minimize their own faults, while amplifying the faults of others. While that seems obvious, it tends to make for unrealistic expectations between couples. One half of a couple can think that they can do better, if they just find someone who just has so and so characteristics, forgetting that they are expecting all the good qualities of their partner to magically pass to the other (new) person.
This led me to ask the existential question: if you could trade up for a new wife or a new car, what should you do? This question didn't come out of the blue, but was part of a very deep and serious discussion about marriage, sometime difficulties in married life, and the rising divorce rate.
While it is true that not all people are good people, and not all pairings are good pairings, the answer is: "trade up for a new car." You know what you're getting and the two of you can enjoy a country ride together. In fact, doing things together, is sometimes the best answer. You might just find out how much you enjoy your spouse's company.
Barry Lynn
Friday, October 25, 2019
Weather It Is (Tropical Storm Warning)
Good Shabbat Eve (almost):
A Medicane is upon us. It should reach tropical storm winds.
Tropical storm warning for the southern coast as far north (possibly) as Ashdod, late Shabbat afternoon evening.
Heavy rain moving into the southern coastal areas tomorrow afternoon, and spreading north towards Tel-Aviv and south towards the northern Negev.
Heavy, flooding rains likely, especially in the southern coastal areas (including Ashdod and southern Tel-Aviv), Jerusalem, and the northern Negev to the Dead Sea.
Storm passes Saturday night.
Forecasts based on our WRF ensemble, from Weather It Is, LTD.
Shabbat Shalom,
A Medicane is upon us. It should reach tropical storm winds.
Tropical storm warning for the southern coast as far north (possibly) as Ashdod, late Shabbat afternoon evening.
Heavy rain moving into the southern coastal areas tomorrow afternoon, and spreading north towards Tel-Aviv and south towards the northern Negev.
Heavy, flooding rains likely, especially in the southern coastal areas (including Ashdod and southern Tel-Aviv), Jerusalem, and the northern Negev to the Dead Sea.
Storm passes Saturday night.
Forecasts based on our WRF ensemble, from Weather It Is, LTD.
Shabbat Shalom,
Weather It Is (Medicane)
Good Afternoon:
A storm currently depicted here:https://en.sat24.com/en/is/visual has developed a circulation typical of tropical storms that impact areas such as the eastern seaboard of the US. This type of storm is termed a Medicane.
You can read about the history of Medicanes here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/24/rare-hurricane-like-medicane-strike-egypt-israel/
Our forecast shows the storm moving eastward and then southeastward into the Sinai and southern Israel, with the strongest winds and heaviest rains near the intersection of Gaza, Egypt, and Israel.
We're hoping to finish an ensemble forecast of this storm to see what is the probability that the storm might turn further north than currently forecast.
Heavy, flooding rains should be expected from south-central Israel to Eilat, with showers and thunderstorms into central Israel.
Barry Lynn
A storm currently depicted here:https://en.sat24.com/en/is/visual has developed a circulation typical of tropical storms that impact areas such as the eastern seaboard of the US. This type of storm is termed a Medicane.
You can read about the history of Medicanes here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/24/rare-hurricane-like-medicane-strike-egypt-israel/
Our forecast shows the storm moving eastward and then southeastward into the Sinai and southern Israel, with the strongest winds and heaviest rains near the intersection of Gaza, Egypt, and Israel.
We're hoping to finish an ensemble forecast of this storm to see what is the probability that the storm might turn further north than currently forecast.
Heavy, flooding rains should be expected from south-central Israel to Eilat, with showers and thunderstorms into central Israel.
Barry Lynn
Monday, October 21, 2019
Weather It Is (Fall Storms)
Good Evening:
The holidays are now past, and we're all looking forward to two plus months of "normalcy." What does that mean for us weather-wise?
It means that October will both feel and look like fall: the temperatures will head quite a bit downwards starting mid-week, and they could be preceded by thunderstorms. Moreover, as the cold weather filters in, there should be both rain showers and even periods of rain. The greatest likelihood of rain will occur from the center of the country to the north, but thunderstorms over the southern areas should not be ruled out, especially ahead of the cold air.
The chilly weather should last into early next week. At that time, there will likely be a short warming trend before colder air and another bout of rain brings in the new month.
The good news is that with the cooler weather, it will be okay to leave your butter on the counter -- it won't get too soft (for those who refuse to turn on the heat until December). "Butter," you say? "What's that?" That is what you put on your bread, if you could actually buy it in the store. Not mentioned in this article (https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-israels-butter-shortage-seen-continuing-1001281402) is that Tnuva was sold to a Chinese company and from what I read the butter we used to buy from Tnuva is now buttering the bread (or Wontons) in China. My guess, though, is that most folks don't know that it's actually pretty easy to make butter. In fact, I made my own. One should probably take note that when the butter separates from the what become buttermilk, the buttermilk will spray all over the place unless you cover the mixer or turn it off at just the right moment. https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/42264/homemade-butter/. As to why we don't have butter to buy?...?
The other day a tragedy happened. A family enjoying an outing at the beach was struck by lightning. As you can see on the lightning tracking system of Weather It is (ITLN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SZnUn0m9xM)), the cloud to ground and intracloud lightning (called Total Lightning) can be tracked as it approaches the beach. A quick look at the time suggests that there was about an hour's time before the lightning struck the beach where a warning could have been issued to seek safety. So, why wasn't a warning issued? Why isn't there any butter?
It looks like the Prime Minister will turn over the mandate to form the next government. The Prime Minister made a pact with more right wing and religious parties to stick together, or to sink or swim together. Why is our Prime Minister so afraid to form a government with the other "centrist" party, Blue and White? Why isn't there any butter?
Things are clearer at home, or at least they were for a few days. My wife, and other wives, went on strike before the last holiday. There were few parting words, except perhaps: "you do the cooking." Of course, I was up to the task, since I love to be in the kitchen. The amazing thing was that the mess I usually make when my wife is in the kitchen was nowhere to be found. She's still looking for it.
Perhaps, then, it is only appropriate that today was not only the holiday when I did the cooking, but when I accepted with solemn responsibility the task of making it rain this coming winter. Usually, this task is reserved for G-D to decide -- for instance, how much and when rain will fall in the Land of Israel (https://www.yeshiva.co/midrash/6316). However, a few weeks ago I decided to ask for and just received confirmation that I would be able to make these big decisions myself. Strangely, it happened the same day I made my first batch of butter. Where's the butter? It's on my toast.
Barry Lynn
The holidays are now past, and we're all looking forward to two plus months of "normalcy." What does that mean for us weather-wise?
It means that October will both feel and look like fall: the temperatures will head quite a bit downwards starting mid-week, and they could be preceded by thunderstorms. Moreover, as the cold weather filters in, there should be both rain showers and even periods of rain. The greatest likelihood of rain will occur from the center of the country to the north, but thunderstorms over the southern areas should not be ruled out, especially ahead of the cold air.
The chilly weather should last into early next week. At that time, there will likely be a short warming trend before colder air and another bout of rain brings in the new month.
The good news is that with the cooler weather, it will be okay to leave your butter on the counter -- it won't get too soft (for those who refuse to turn on the heat until December). "Butter," you say? "What's that?" That is what you put on your bread, if you could actually buy it in the store. Not mentioned in this article (https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-israels-butter-shortage-seen-continuing-1001281402) is that Tnuva was sold to a Chinese company and from what I read the butter we used to buy from Tnuva is now buttering the bread (or Wontons) in China. My guess, though, is that most folks don't know that it's actually pretty easy to make butter. In fact, I made my own. One should probably take note that when the butter separates from the what become buttermilk, the buttermilk will spray all over the place unless you cover the mixer or turn it off at just the right moment. https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/42264/homemade-butter/. As to why we don't have butter to buy?...?
The other day a tragedy happened. A family enjoying an outing at the beach was struck by lightning. As you can see on the lightning tracking system of Weather It is (ITLN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SZnUn0m9xM)), the cloud to ground and intracloud lightning (called Total Lightning) can be tracked as it approaches the beach. A quick look at the time suggests that there was about an hour's time before the lightning struck the beach where a warning could have been issued to seek safety. So, why wasn't a warning issued? Why isn't there any butter?
It looks like the Prime Minister will turn over the mandate to form the next government. The Prime Minister made a pact with more right wing and religious parties to stick together, or to sink or swim together. Why is our Prime Minister so afraid to form a government with the other "centrist" party, Blue and White? Why isn't there any butter?
Things are clearer at home, or at least they were for a few days. My wife, and other wives, went on strike before the last holiday. There were few parting words, except perhaps: "you do the cooking." Of course, I was up to the task, since I love to be in the kitchen. The amazing thing was that the mess I usually make when my wife is in the kitchen was nowhere to be found. She's still looking for it.
Perhaps, then, it is only appropriate that today was not only the holiday when I did the cooking, but when I accepted with solemn responsibility the task of making it rain this coming winter. Usually, this task is reserved for G-D to decide -- for instance, how much and when rain will fall in the Land of Israel (https://www.yeshiva.co/midrash/6316). However, a few weeks ago I decided to ask for and just received confirmation that I would be able to make these big decisions myself. Strangely, it happened the same day I made my first batch of butter. Where's the butter? It's on my toast.
Barry Lynn
Friday, October 11, 2019
Weather It Is (Seems Too Hot)
Good Afternoon:
It seems too hot out there -- and if you think so, you're probably right. Temperatures have been close to 30 degrees under southerly breezes, with not too humid, but slightly too humid air.
Shabbat will see a small decrease in temperatures but Sunday through into late Wednesday should see uncomfortably warm if not hot temperatures. The hot temperatures should arrive with some mid-level and upper-level moisture, which means we could see a repeat of the thundershowers that affected the southern and central areas last Shabbat.
Yet, you might want to shake the dust off those winter clothes soon because the outlook beyond Wednesday is for the arrival of much cooler temperatures and much more humid air as winds switch to the west and northwest. The cooler air should build in during Sukkot, but it looks like the coldest air and a more general rain should hold off until early the following week, perhaps to just after the end of the holiday.
Enjoy the summer like weather because fall, if not winter looks poised to bless us with rain.
Hag Samaech!
Barry Lynn
It seems too hot out there -- and if you think so, you're probably right. Temperatures have been close to 30 degrees under southerly breezes, with not too humid, but slightly too humid air.
Shabbat will see a small decrease in temperatures but Sunday through into late Wednesday should see uncomfortably warm if not hot temperatures. The hot temperatures should arrive with some mid-level and upper-level moisture, which means we could see a repeat of the thundershowers that affected the southern and central areas last Shabbat.
Yet, you might want to shake the dust off those winter clothes soon because the outlook beyond Wednesday is for the arrival of much cooler temperatures and much more humid air as winds switch to the west and northwest. The cooler air should build in during Sukkot, but it looks like the coldest air and a more general rain should hold off until early the following week, perhaps to just after the end of the holiday.
Enjoy the summer like weather because fall, if not winter looks poised to bless us with rain.
Hag Samaech!
Barry Lynn
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