Weather It Is (Winter Continues)

Posted March 1st. Update Motzei Shabbat:

Good Evening:

What do you do when your weatherman has "writers block?"  Really, how many times can I write that it is going to rain, but that the main area of cold air will miss us to the north or to the east?

I suppose the answer is at least one more time.

It's been a really interesting winter, once it got going in late December.  It started with a series of very heavy rainstorms, and we've now surpassed the average amount for the year (https://ims.gov.il/sites/default/files/ims_data/map_images/dailyRainfall/dailyRainfall.pdf?parm=5e5be31501297).  Moreover, additional rain (with possible snow on the Hermon) is expected at the end of this week, and then at the end of the following week.  Both rain events are associated with winter-type storms, rather than the red-sea troughs of spring.

Yet, it snowed only briefly outside the higher elevations of the Golan, and the Hermon.

In a year of continuously strongly positive North Atlantic (NAO) and Arctic Oscillations (AO),  one might have expected a snowstorm or two. A positive NAO means that a ridge of warm air is often present over western Europe, which is often associated with a trough of cold air over the eastern Mediterranean.  These troughs of cold air help to spin up winter storms.  A positive AO means that there is plenty of cold air if the atmosphere circulation should align to amplify the trough.  The cold air would normally arrive via Siberia, passing over Turkey before settling in over our area. One extreme example of this was the extremely heavy snowstorm of December 2013.

However, it didn't happen, and the question is what was missing? It is a strange question to ask because this year was marked by a number of "short-waves" (storms) moving around the ridge of high pressure, and even often superimposed on it.  Since these traveled over quite a distance and arrived from the west (over the sea), we were blessed with plentiful rain.  This would be in contrast to the ridge building to our west and stretching far into northern Europe, while cold air flows southward from Siberia (i.e., the storm arrives more directly).  Precipitation might be heavier than our average storm this winter, but less frequent.  It would be an interesting research question to understand what was missing, so to speak, in the global circulation that inhibited deepening of troughs in the eastern Mediterranean.

Less theoretical, is the worry about the Corona Virus.  As discussed in The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/20/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-china-cause.html?) there are at least two reasons that this virus, as well as SARS and MERS have originated in China.  1) Many Chinese eat a variety of foods and unusual foods because they believe that these foods have special medicinal benefits, and 2) they are eaten fresh (uncooked) to preserve their potency. Unfortunately, there are plenty of viruses (old and new) that live robustly in bats, which then bite and infect the animals that are then eaten. The food can then become contaminated with viruses that are quite dangerous to human health.  Hence, food becomes a potential disease vector,

Moreover, the Chinese culture discourages individuality and criticism, which is especially bad under the current government. For an interesting summary of the effect of cultural norms on safety, read here: https://blogs.wsj.com/middleseat/2008/12/04/malcolm-gladwell-on-culture-cockpit-communication-and-plane-crashes/.

Had the Corona Virus been dealt with earlier, instead of only after it became an epidemic (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/world/asia/china-coronavirus-doctor-death.html) quite possibly countless lives could have been saved -- not to mention the disruption to the world economies.

On our side of the world, our government has been pro-active in preventing the spread of the virus.  We can only hope that we will have a new government soon that it will also be proactive in fixing our problems with hospital over-crowding (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/middleeast/israel-election-issues.html?), lack of roads and mass transit, and an educational system that pays its teachers far too little, and educates its students to be knowledgeable but not wise children.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Southern Flooding)

Good Afternoon:

Special Weather Statement for Southern and South-Central Israel

A relatively small, but intense storm system should move through the Sinai today and then swing northward towards southern Israel.

Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms should occur from about midnight until tomorrow (Tuesday Afternoon) in the central and southern Negev, from Eilat, through Mitzpe Rimon, and possibly up to Beer-Sheva.

Flooding of streams and rivers is very likely throughout the Negev, and possibly in the Dead-Sea Basin east of Jerusalem.

Hail could also damage cars and agricultural interests.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Tired Out)

Good Evening:

There is record cold in the polar and artic regions, which have produced very high values of the Artic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO: https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/).  The positive NAO has been associated with our plentiful rainfall this winter, although there are most likely other factors as well.  The positive NAO tends to build a ridge of warmer air of western Europe, allowing a trough and colder air to build southward over the eastern Mediterranean. Ironically, the United States has been experiencing a very mild winter after years of extreme cold, but it will no longer be able to possible to attribute melting sea-ice and glaciers to global warming -- since the cold in the polar and artic regions is so intense.

If you were outside (like in Herzliya, where I was for lunch at Jems Herzliya restaurant),  you probably noticed just how warm (and beautiful) it was today (Thursday), and Friday will also be especially nice.  Nevertheless, a trough should drop southward by Shabbat and showery, if not rainy weather should persist from Sunday until possibly the end of the month.

Interestingly, temperatures are forecast to be on a downward trend as well.  In fact, the deterministic GFS shows a snowstorm affecting our area on or about the 29th of the month. Considering how colder the northern areas are, there is, perhaps, an above normal chance that winter will actually turn cold enough for a late snow.

However, I'm not sure that the "Israel Winter Weather" group will last this long to see this through.  Two of its members have fallen into solemnity, while the other just spent two days skiing on the Hermon, and was treated with two days of snow.  It's easy to stick together when times are good and winter weather is (or always seems to be) on the horizon, but what about when the clock is ticking down, and soon no one will even care that it snowed a little bit the other night (in some places a little more and a little bit less of a little bit).

A recent article in The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/opinion/sunday/marriage-housework-gender-happiness.html?) summarizes research pertaining to the happiness and long term satisfaction of couples, no matter which type.  The upshot is that woman in traditional relationships are the least satisfied.  In contrast, when typical stereotype expectations are broken down, then better communication and more equal sharing of the burden of household work and child-rearing leads to lower stress and more time for couples to enjoy their family life  -- together.

It seems almost ideal.  Yet, the other day I heard this story about a wife seeking divorce (from her husband) from the Rabbinical Divorce Court.  When asked why she wanted a divorce, she complained that he kept doing her laundry, making her bed, and cooking meals.  She said that before she was married her laundry always smelled like fresh flowers, her bed was neatly made with tucked corners, and she ate what she wanted, and there was no kitchen mess.  The Rabbinical judges suggested to her that she could "live" we these things and perhaps seek happiness in her relationship in other ways: perhaps a movie together, or a walk in the evening would make her forget her troubles.

She agreed to give it a try, but was back a couple months later, saying that her husband had finally "broken the camel's back" (see: https://www.yourdictionary.com/the-straw-that-broke-the-camel-s-back).  "What was it," the Rabbis asked?  Her reply: "he took the garbage out -- all five bags of it, and my whole morning schedule was just ruined. I was early everywhere I went and spent what felt like hours waiting for appointments and meetings."

The Rabbis huddled together, not sure what to do but knowing that they needed to take the complaints of this person (wife) very seriously.  In the end, they brought the husband in, and suggested in very strong terms that he just might consider going back to being a "normal" husband, stop trying to help so much, and just let things be!

I heard that he lived happily ever after, and she stopped complaining.  She didn't have time as she was very, very busy.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Bitter Cold)

Good Morning:

Some light flurries today in the Jerusalem area, with snow showers up in the area of Safed and the Golan.

Tonight, bitter cold in the higher elevations, with chilly temperatures along coastal areas.

Temperatures from -1 to -2 C in the Jerusalem area, with as low as -4 C in Gush Etzion. Safed and surrounding higher mountain tops will range from -2 to -5 C. Temperatures in the coastal cities will be around  3 to 7 C, depending on location.

Weather It Is (Bitter Cold)

Weather It Is (Cold and a Period of Snow)

Good Evening:

A very cold air mass will develop tonight south of Turkey and then slide into Syria tomorrow (Sunday).  It will then move very slowly away from us on Monday,

The best chance for measurable precipitation will be later tonight into tomorrow afternoon.  At the same time, the coldest air of the year will settle in, and put us in the deep freeze until Tuesday. Hence, a period snow is possible tomorrow, and cold temperatures will create icy conditions.  Flurries are possible on Monday, and temperatures will likely be near or below freezing.

Over the last few days, the storm off to our north has been forecast to approach ever closer, but the forecast settled in on Friday to its current forecast Sunday and Monday position. Were the storm to deviate in its forecast path further to the southwest, then the air in the upper atmosphere would cool more than forecast to produce a heavier snowfall. Based on the current projections, this is not likely.

 Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Cold Update)

Good Evening:

The sun is setting on a beautiful day -- the kind of day you wish you could save in a bottle and open whenever you feel like it.

Yet, the weather is about to change as the coldest air of the season, and rival if not exceed the coldest air of the decade, as a storm makes its way into our area over the next few days.

As mentioned in our previous blog, we're going to get rain and cold, which will end in a deep freeze by Monday morning, but most likely the upper level trough will pass too far to our east to bring a significant snow to the Jerusalem area.

On the other hand, there has been some back and forth in the model forecasts between a wetter and colder situation versus just cold.  The reason for this is that there are two storms, one moving eastward north of Great Britain from off the northern Atlantic and the other dropping down into Friday's trough from Siberia.  The Atlantic storm is supposed to push the warm ridge of air over Europe and its downstream trough eastward, with the upper level trough sliding by to our east. If the Atlantic storm were to swing further north than forecast, it would allow the ridge to remain further west, bringing the upper level system closer to us on Sunday.  It's not likely, but there is still some uncertainty in the forecast track of this storm, and hence our storm.

What is not uncertain, is the extreme cold to arrive Sunday and Monday, lasting into Tuesday.

Highlights.

1) Temperatures begin to fall tonight, Thursday night, as cold air rushes in.

2) Winds will increase and Near Gale or Gale Force Winds will develop by sometime Shabbat afternoon, before tapering off towards Sunday morning.

3) Three Periods of precipitation: rain late tonight (Thursday Night), Friday afternoon into Friday night, and Shabbat, with forecast rain amounts generally 25 to 50 mm.  Thunderstorms possible Thursday night/Friday morning as storms develop in desert dusty air.

4) Rain mixed with sleet in the higher elevations around Jerusalem Friday night and Shabbat day.

5) Sunday: temperatures fall sharply colder with periods of light rain and snow in the higher elevations of the Galilee and Jerusalem.  Snow on the Hermon.  The chance of an accumulating snow is currently 20%, but wet roads could freeze over towards Monday morning.

6) The extreme cold continues countrywide into Tuesday morning.

Stay tuned for updates,

Barry Lynn