Weather It Is (Cold and Becoming Snowy)

Good Morning:

The storm system continues to strength and move ever closer to us on our latest forecasts.  Here is our forecast from our highest resolution forecast.

1) Temperatures in the lower single digits to near freezing in the higher elevations of the central and northern mountains. Temperatures in the upper single digits along coastal areas.

2) Accumulating snow only on the Hermon.

3) Periods of snow in the afternoon and evening  in Safed; with a coating possible on colder surfaces   Periods of snow in the central mountains tonight into Shabbat Morning. A coating is again possible.  Snow in the Golan this afternoon and night; a coating of snow is possible. 

4) Some thunderstorms tonight as the coldest air moves in.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Snow Cold?)

Good Evening:

1) Winter Cold into Sunday Morning

2) Periods of rain and thunderstorms with hail.

3) Snow possible on the higher peaks, including Jerusalem late Friday night into Shabbat Morning.

4) Flooding possible in east central and southern areas.

5) Strong early storm possible late next week.

Some of you might remember that winter didn't really start until the last week of December.  But, soon after that there were 5 successive storms that led to severe flooding in many areas.  Then, contrary to the seasonal forecasts issued for January, February, and March, the wet weather continued until now, and the last week of March looks especially rainy.

With our unusually cold and rainy weather this week comes an unusual weather map for this time of year.  There is high pressure over England and high pressure over Siberia.  In between there are areas of low pressure moving from west to east across the Mediterranean.  As we wrote about last time, one of them has rejoined with the polar front and stalled in our area.  Cold air continues to seep into this system from Siberia, and as we have moved closer to Shabbat forecasts have progressively turned colder, including the latest 12 UTC Global Ensemble Forecast System.

Cold air in the lower atmosphere (at 850 mb) will arrive tonight, while colder air in the middle atmosphere (700 mb) will arrive tomorrow (Friday).  The upper level cold at 500 mb should arrive Friday night and temperatures at 500 mb should approach -30 Celcius towards morning.  Because this cold air is arriving at night, conditions will be ideal for cooling temperatures throughout the country, and especially at the higher elevations of the Jerusalem mountains and Galilee.  Snow is also possible on the Golan, and likely on the Hermon.  Forecasts produced with a high resolution model already show ice and hail Friday into the early morning. We hope to produce a very high resolution forecast Friday morning.

These cold temperatures are certainly unusual for this time of year, and are most likely in part due to the fact that the coldest temperatures in the northern hemisphere have been bottled up in the highest latitudes most winter, so there is still winter cold to come around.

Will they lead to a late season period of snow late Friday night into Shabbat morning?

Stay tuned.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Respite and Then Winter Cold)

Good Evening:

Highlights

1) Winter Cold Returns TuesdayNight.

2) Heavy Rains, Hail, and Strong Winds

3) Snow on the Golan and Hermon

Our storm that ended the week took an unusual path, but in the process it brought plenty of dust, thunderstorms, flooding rains, and winds that gusted over 100 km/h.  We had about 50 mm of rain just overnight (Friday night).

After a two day respite, our next storm will arrive from the northwest Tuesday evening, become cut off from the polar jet to its north, and then reconnect to it as even colder air reinvigorates the storm as the week ends.

Precipitation should be fairly steady from Tuesday night into Shabbat, if not Sunday, and temperatures will be very chilly, in fact downright chilly for this time of the year.  At the moment, the forecast suggests that the temperatures will be cold enough for snow on the higher elevations of the Golan on Tuesday night and then Thursday into Shabbat.

Our best chance for wet snow will be next Shabbat, but most likely folks will just see a very chilly rain at  the higher elevations of the central mountains.  Still, colder temperatures aloft will probably bring thunderstorms with hail.

While temperatures should turn milder, if not warm the following week, the second half may again turn towards winter once more. The month will then end with a wintry chill.

When I was growing up, we had snow days come every once and a while.  These are days when school would be cancelled because of a threat of snow or an actual storm itself.  When I moved here, we also had a few snow days, here in the Jerusalem mountains.  Other kids had "Missile Days," when HAMAS of Islamic Jihad would periodically shoot missiles at their schools so the kids could stay home and watch movies in their parents bomb shelters.  What fun!

Now, we have "Virus Days."  Virus days are for all the school kids, both those that sometimes stay home for snow days, and those that more frequently get missile days off. from school.  In fact, it looks like this will be an extended vacation -- although not the kind those who pine for snow days would wish for.

People who have been exposed to the virus or fear they might have been exposed have been asked to enter quarantine.. Those who have not, have all rushed to the supermarkets so they can catch the virus while stocking up for what will turn out for them to be a 14 day quarantine. This is called panic, and at the moment the only reason the supermarket shelves are empty is because people bought enough food for the next month, even though the cows and chickens are not infected, and there is plenty of rain to water the grains, fruits, and vegetables.  There are also deliveries continuing to arrive from overseas, although there has been a slowdown due to issues relating to how to quarantine those making the deliveries.

Of course Passover is coming -- and if anything will put an end to the virus it will be the cleaning prior to Passover.  No virus will remain, nor even a bacteria anywhere in any kitchen, or under a bet or living room couch,  and there certainly won't be any crumbs to feed the mice.

I tried to get something to eat the other day, but a sign said that the kitchen was closed  Apparently, my wife was exposed to the the "Chametz Virus," and is now in quarantine in the kitchen --  cleaning.

So, we can hope the weather will turn warm and sunny for April, but until then our winter weather will return, giving us further reason to hope that April brings showers, not storms.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Gale Winds and Floods)

Good Friday Morning.

There is a very high chance winds will exceed 41 knots (about 75 km/h) over southern areas, including Eilat later this morning into this evening.  There is a small chance that winds will exceed 48 knots (90 km/h) as well.

Mitzpe Rimon should also see very strong winds, with 30 to 35 knot winds in Beer-Sheva.

There is a high probability of floods over southern areas, and in the Dead-Sea Basin, from mid-afternoon in Shabbat morning. Maximum rain amounts are expected to be 25 to 50 mm.

Weather It Is (Gale Warning)

Good Afternoon:

There is a Whole Gale warning for later this afternoon continuing into Friday morning.

Southern parts of the country have a high probability of experiencing sustained Storm  winds of > 48 knots (90 km/h). 

Based on our ensemble forecast (attached maps), this late afternoon will experience 35 to 40 knot  winds across much of the area, with > 48 knots over southern Israel. Gusts will be greater than 60 knots 

Tonight: the strongest winds will occur in the inland hills, east of the major cities, with mean winds of 34 knots (65 km/h). Winds will also increase in the Haifa area to > 30 knots. .

Tonight, within the coastal cities, gusts of > 34 knots are likely with gusts > 41 knots possible.  Gusts will be especially strong in the Haifa area tonight.

Friday morning, winds will be strongest over the south with Gale winds (> 46 knots or 65 km/h).

Winds should decrease in the afternoon.

Total precipitation is also shown: generally 25 to 50 mm will fall by 0200 LT Friday, so expect flooding over southern areas. Possible flooding might occur from Ashkelon to Haifa, beginning late tonight to late morning as convective storms swing northward up the coast.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Strong Storms Then Cold)

Good Morning:

Highlights:

1) Strong thunderstorms Thursday Night into Shabbat, with hail.

2) Chance of thunderstorms over the south tonight. Localized flooding is possible.

3) Strong winds.

4) Late next week should see a return to winter-cold with snow on the Hermon.

Two days of mostly nice weather will be followed by strong thunderstorms as the weather turns colder. The storm is associated with a potent upper level divergence (an intense vorticity maximum), which will lead to robust divergence aloft, so the surface pressure will be unusually low compared to typical Israeli winter storms (below 1000 mb). The storm is moving across the Sinai (where very heavy rain should lead to flooding), before heading back northeast, and then passing over us.  Hence, it is expected to pick up plenty of dust, and thunderstorms with hail are a strong possibility as the storm arrives Thursday night.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across the south tonight ahead of the storm, and then heavy rain is expected from the south to the central areas Thursday night.  Heavy rain is expected in the northern areas on Friday, and then heavy rain should return to the central areas Friday night into Shabbat.  Localized flooding is possible in heavier storms.

The rain should taper off late Shabbat, and temperatures should moderate into mid-next week.  Yet, spring will not be springing, as late next week a deep trough should approach from the north, bringing winter-chill, rain, and snow on the Golan/Hermon.

The latest snow in the central mountains in more recent memory was March 17th, 2008.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Dangerous Storm on the Way)

Good Afternoon:

There seems a lot to worry about, and the forecasts for the end of the week have added to these worries.

As noted in our previous column, the weather pattern has been "stuck" in the positive phase of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation, and both patterns have been combining to bring periodic storms, many of which have spent a good part of their lifetimes over the moist, and relatively warm Mediterranean Sea.

Thus, after a warm Purim with a chance of scattered showers the weather will change for the worse.

About mid-week, a deep trough will drop southward, passing east of Italy and west of Crete.  It is part of a ridge-trough couplet stretching from western to central Europe.  The trough will cut-off from the polar jet and move through Egypt and into the northern Sinai by Friday morning.  Two of the three global ensemble forecast models predict the storm to then reconnect with the Polar Jet, strengthening as it moves into the southern/eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea.  The more this system merges with the polar Jet, the heavier and more severe our weather will be.

Moreover, the southern trajectory of the storm means that there will be plenty of dust ingested into the storm, including some upper level Atlantic Ocean moisture.   Together, plenty of moisture and dust suggests that thunderstorms will be more intense than typical winter-thunderstorms, and that many places will surpass the 25 mm amounts measured in southern and eastern areas during our last storm.  Storms should again (also) impact the southern areas quite heavily.

The heavy rains, strong winds, thunder and hail should last from Friday into Sunday morning.

The arrival of the storm at the end of the week seems pretty certain.  What is less certain is how many people will become sick from CoronaVirus.  The United States CDC has a list of symptoms to be aware of (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html) including cough and high fever, as well as other helpful facts.

I'd like to dispel a pernicious and dangerous myth that seems to be spreading among some circles -- that the Coronavirus is not as dangerous as the common flu.  Right now, about 3% of those infected are dying from the virus, which makes it more deadly on a percentage basis than the Spanish Flu of 1917/18.  The reason some give for its supposed lack of lethality is that there are "probably" many more people who are carriers or just had light symptoms that we never hear about.

This idea is absurd because it is just as likely that there were people who were carriers of the Spanish Flu or only had light symptoms.  The reason that 10s of millions died was because it spread from place to place, and occurred at a time when containment of the flu was hindered by the conditions during World War I (and the malnutrition that went with it).

The Israel Ministry of Health, including its deputy head Rabbi Yaakov Litzman, deserves high praise for its efforts to limit the spread of the virus.  The current rules suspending flights and quarantining travellers and those suspected of having the disease just might, just might save millions.

But, for this to happen, each person must do his or her part.

1) Wash your hands with soap and water, frequently during the day, especially upon return home and before eating (and of course after using the bathroom).

2) Consider using an alcoholic hand cleaning solution when out, especially after touching door knobs, tables, grocery carts, etc, touched by others.

3) Try not to touch your face, mouth, and eyes with your fingers.

4) Try not to open doors with your hands.

5) STAY HOME:  if you have symptoms, don't spread it to someone else because then it can spread EXPONENTIALLY from there.

6) As the Rabbi of our Synagogue recently wrote, saving a life is more important than other obligations we might have, including public prayer, and this is one of those times when we can save not just our own lives, but the lives of many others.

Barry Lynn