Good afternoon:
Low pressure to our southeast continues to intensify, and high temperatures associated with it will peak on Thursday (the 9th of Av). Temperatures will reach dangerous levels, and this is especially so for people fasting on Thursday. People fasting can easily dehydrate and possibly suffer from hyperthermia if they are not extremely careful. Temperatures should be in the mid to upper 30s inland, and the low to mid 30s in the coastal plain, and in the low 40s in the Jordan Valley. Eilat takes top heat honors, with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s all week.
In our last blog, we were hopeful that the heatwave would break Wednesday night, but for the last few days it's been apparent that the heat wave will not break until Friday. Because there is going to be low humidity, it's very important to stay inside and out of the heat as much as possible.
Summer may feel like it has finally arrived, but the longer range forecast is actually showing milder temperatures as we move into the first and second weeks of August.
It's definitely a bad week for it to be so hot, and a sad period of time for the Jewish people. There have been many tragedies during this period. Both Temples (yes, they existed Mr. Abbas) were destroyed during this time (https://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/295601/jewish/Breaking-Walls.htm), and this date in Jewish history was chosen by others to implement their evil practices (https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/7-tragedies-that-befell-the-jewish-people-on-tisha-beav-598199).
Unfortunately, these can be times of personal tragedy. Our town has the difficult task of saying goodbye to one our residents, Dr. and Rabbi Mordecai Reich . He was a person known by many, and loved by many for both his insight and kindness expressed to all that he met. During his prolonged illness, he fought hard against and yet still found the time to write Divrei Torah to his family each Shabbat eve. Before his passing, his children did him the honor and kindness of making his writings into a book. His kindness and love must now be sought in the words that he wrote. Yet, I can't help but thinking that a person so special can't just disappear, that one day in the future his family will see his kind and loving personality within of Sima and Mordecai's grandchildren.
I'm not really the person to write or deal with loss. I find it very hard to throw anything, let alone to say goodbye to anyone. I'm even not one to get rid of a old sock or undershirt until I'm not sure which side is in or which hole is for my head. I have papers stretching back years and pictures or drawings my kids made -- stored away in boxes.
Yet, I often wonder if these memories stored away are not necessarily easy to find. And, if one cannot retrieve or even remember those instances in life that had meaning or brought happiness, then what does one really have?
That's why it's so important to at least put in order your memories and make available them to your children those that you want to pass on. It can be something written, an old photo album (with names to go along), or even a picture or childhood drawing that gives grounding to the past, and present value and meaning to those who participate in these memories. To be quite frank, it's really important to know where you've come from because without them you'll never know where you need to go. Hence, that's why "Cancel Culture" is for dummies.
I wish that I could offer more than words to the Reich family, and more than encouragement for a future filled with times of happiness. I can't make these things happen, but I am at least confident that Mordecai and Sima have brought to this world the possibility that these will come to pass.
Barry Lynn
Monday, July 27, 2020
Monday, July 20, 2020
Weather It Is (Summer Arrives)
Good Afternoon:
It's the end of the third week in July and summer has finally arrived, almost.
While the first part of this week will be just hot, the second half of the week and especially this Shabbat weekend will turn noticeably hotter. It will be a good time to get wet and stay wet, although there will be some observing the 9 days prior to the 9th of Av who won't go swimming no matter how hot it is. These folks will need to stay in the shade or indoors. Fortunately, the heat is expected to break Wednesday night of next week, as the fast commences.
It's been a busy time here in Israel, if not elsewhere where the number of Coronavirus cases has more than tripled over the last month. How did it happen?
Speaking of my experience here, I can tell you that the increase in cases occurred for the following reasons.
1) People did not wear masks and keep their distance from others.
2) The new government opened schools, did not require that masks be worn at schools during the week of the heatwave in May, and did not enforce mask wearing thereafter.
3) The new government allowed crowds to fill buses.
4) Large private parties were held.
5) Government ministers did not set good examples for mass wearing or attending large social events.
6) People did not wear masks and keep their distance from others.
On my recent trip to the mall, I did notice a very large fraction of people properly wearing masks (covering their noses and mouth). However, there were some eating without masks (hard to eat with one), and some just not wearing their masks. Since the mall is a closed area, these people (parents and children) are more likely to get sick, and then get those at home sick as well.
Now, as noted in the Jerusalem Post's summary of Health Ministry statistics "Who has the virus and where did they catch it?", most people caught the virus at home, from another family member. Hence, the most dangerous place to be is the home! While technically true, one should keep in mind that the virus is not hovering like the boogey man (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bogeyman) waiting to pounce as we're sleeping. Rather, the virus takes advantage of stupidity (or just plain carelessness or bad luck). For instance, the Post reported that 9.5% caught the virus at schools, and 5.6% at event halls, followed closely by religious establishments at 4.8%. One can also become sick eating in restaurants and visiting bars (4%). The flip side is being outside, going to the pool, or sports field are safer activities, with the sports field being the least safe of the three.
To repeat, how did we and other countries such as the US get to this situation (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)? By not wearing masks and not keeping social distancing. In fact, of those you see most often not wearing masks: 40% of those sick in Israel are between the ages of 10 to 30, and they also are making up a higher percentage of severe cases as their relative percentage of the total sick grows (see also: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/us/coronavirus-cases-young-people.html). Worse, 1/3 adults age 18-25 can develop severe symptoms (https://www.sciencealert.com/smoking-may-explain-why-1-in-3-young-adults-are-at-risk-of-severe-coronavirus). Moreover, it takes time for symptoms to appear (and they don't appear in everyone) https://www.singlecare.com/blog/news/coronavirus-symptoms-and-incubation-period/), so the disease is easily spread.
In contrast, the number of cases in European countries are way down (https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-europe-slowed-its-coronavirus-cases-from-a-torrent-to-a-trickle-11595240731?). This is attributed to the continued banning of large gatherings, consistent testing and tracking of individuals, while wearing masks and keeping social distancing.
Don't go out without a mask ON: the life you save may be your own.
Barry Lynn
It's the end of the third week in July and summer has finally arrived, almost.
While the first part of this week will be just hot, the second half of the week and especially this Shabbat weekend will turn noticeably hotter. It will be a good time to get wet and stay wet, although there will be some observing the 9 days prior to the 9th of Av who won't go swimming no matter how hot it is. These folks will need to stay in the shade or indoors. Fortunately, the heat is expected to break Wednesday night of next week, as the fast commences.
It's been a busy time here in Israel, if not elsewhere where the number of Coronavirus cases has more than tripled over the last month. How did it happen?
Speaking of my experience here, I can tell you that the increase in cases occurred for the following reasons.
1) People did not wear masks and keep their distance from others.
2) The new government opened schools, did not require that masks be worn at schools during the week of the heatwave in May, and did not enforce mask wearing thereafter.
3) The new government allowed crowds to fill buses.
4) Large private parties were held.
5) Government ministers did not set good examples for mass wearing or attending large social events.
6) People did not wear masks and keep their distance from others.
On my recent trip to the mall, I did notice a very large fraction of people properly wearing masks (covering their noses and mouth). However, there were some eating without masks (hard to eat with one), and some just not wearing their masks. Since the mall is a closed area, these people (parents and children) are more likely to get sick, and then get those at home sick as well.
Now, as noted in the Jerusalem Post's summary of Health Ministry statistics "Who has the virus and where did they catch it?", most people caught the virus at home, from another family member. Hence, the most dangerous place to be is the home! While technically true, one should keep in mind that the virus is not hovering like the boogey man (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bogeyman) waiting to pounce as we're sleeping. Rather, the virus takes advantage of stupidity (or just plain carelessness or bad luck). For instance, the Post reported that 9.5% caught the virus at schools, and 5.6% at event halls, followed closely by religious establishments at 4.8%. One can also become sick eating in restaurants and visiting bars (4%). The flip side is being outside, going to the pool, or sports field are safer activities, with the sports field being the least safe of the three.
To repeat, how did we and other countries such as the US get to this situation (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)? By not wearing masks and not keeping social distancing. In fact, of those you see most often not wearing masks: 40% of those sick in Israel are between the ages of 10 to 30, and they also are making up a higher percentage of severe cases as their relative percentage of the total sick grows (see also: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/us/coronavirus-cases-young-people.html). Worse, 1/3 adults age 18-25 can develop severe symptoms (https://www.sciencealert.com/smoking-may-explain-why-1-in-3-young-adults-are-at-risk-of-severe-coronavirus). Moreover, it takes time for symptoms to appear (and they don't appear in everyone) https://www.singlecare.com/blog/news/coronavirus-symptoms-and-incubation-period/), so the disease is easily spread.
In contrast, the number of cases in European countries are way down (https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-europe-slowed-its-coronavirus-cases-from-a-torrent-to-a-trickle-11595240731?). This is attributed to the continued banning of large gatherings, consistent testing and tracking of individuals, while wearing masks and keeping social distancing.
Don't go out without a mask ON: the life you save may be your own.
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, July 7, 2020
Weather It Is (Or Not)
Good Evening:
The wind continues to blow, and as a result, the apples continue to fall off our tree. After a period of intense heat in late May, June turned out to be a tad on average cooler than normal. It was also quite windy, and it seems like the wind never stops. It's nice, but it makes you wish for just a bit more calm in these tumultuous times.
Our relatively cool, but beautiful, kite flying weather is courtesy of a broad trough of lower pressure in the upper atmosphere, whose origin is actually as far north as Scandinavia. Associated with this trough is a weak area of low pressure situated over the eastern Mediterranean, and as a result our winds have been blowing from the relatively cool northwest. Normally, we're under the influence of desert low pressure, which means high heat and quite stagnant conditions.
The weather for the rest of the week should stay cool, but next week should seem more summer like temperatures. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast over the next two weeks, which makes sense as our weather is unusually cool for summertime, and the circulation pattern unusually wavy for this time of year. In fact, we don't really seem to be under the influence of the western edge of the Indian Monsoon, which usually brings us hotter weather as westward moving air sinks off the Jordanian mountain ridge.
It's great that summer seems on hold, as we can keep the windows open as we work or just play at home. A good breeze, like an apple a day, can keep the coronavirus away. Of course, it can't keep the husband out of the wife's hair. First, she suggested I work upstairs, and from there she asked if maybe I wanted to physically go the University to work. It wasn't long, though, before she suggested I visit my parents, knowing fully well that the only way to get there is to sail, and that isn't exactly flying (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/28/world/americas/coronavirus-argentina-sailor.html).
I'm still at home because, unfortunately, there was a lack of attention to keeping social distance and wearing masks, and now those newly infected are more than 1000 a day. Of course, it begins at the top, and one can't really say that our ministers follow the rules they ostensibly set for the rest of us (https://www.timesofisrael.com/minister-knowingly-breaks-virus-guidelines-to-attend-ribbon-cutting/).
Quite frankly, though. I am a bit surprised that they have any time to pay attention to us (a good number of us that voted for them). They've been too busy setting up ministries and jobs for themselves (https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-34-ministers-of-israels-35th-government/) to notice that the citizens of the country could use some of those jobs. Do they realize that an unemployment rate of 20% is a 5 fold increase from previous unemployment rates before the Coronavirus struck?
The good news is that I am almost ready for my appearance before the Knesset Finance Committee. Sometime ago, we had to move to a bigger home, make renovations, etc, and more recently we've had additional expenses associated with having teenagers in the home. I feel very strongly that I, like the Prime Minister (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-knesset-committee-approves-million-shekel-tax-break-for-netanyahu-1.8941544), should receive retroactive tax breaks going back a number of years. In my case, I think tax refunds going back about 15 years would be just about right. I'll tell the committee that we could really use the money, and the amounts would really make a difference in our lives. I realize that I am not the Prime Minister, but if he asks himself how many times it has rained on his parade since he became Prime Minister, he should realize that if anyone deserves a break I do.
Barry Lynn
The wind continues to blow, and as a result, the apples continue to fall off our tree. After a period of intense heat in late May, June turned out to be a tad on average cooler than normal. It was also quite windy, and it seems like the wind never stops. It's nice, but it makes you wish for just a bit more calm in these tumultuous times.
Our relatively cool, but beautiful, kite flying weather is courtesy of a broad trough of lower pressure in the upper atmosphere, whose origin is actually as far north as Scandinavia. Associated with this trough is a weak area of low pressure situated over the eastern Mediterranean, and as a result our winds have been blowing from the relatively cool northwest. Normally, we're under the influence of desert low pressure, which means high heat and quite stagnant conditions.
The weather for the rest of the week should stay cool, but next week should seem more summer like temperatures. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast over the next two weeks, which makes sense as our weather is unusually cool for summertime, and the circulation pattern unusually wavy for this time of year. In fact, we don't really seem to be under the influence of the western edge of the Indian Monsoon, which usually brings us hotter weather as westward moving air sinks off the Jordanian mountain ridge.
It's great that summer seems on hold, as we can keep the windows open as we work or just play at home. A good breeze, like an apple a day, can keep the coronavirus away. Of course, it can't keep the husband out of the wife's hair. First, she suggested I work upstairs, and from there she asked if maybe I wanted to physically go the University to work. It wasn't long, though, before she suggested I visit my parents, knowing fully well that the only way to get there is to sail, and that isn't exactly flying (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/28/world/americas/coronavirus-argentina-sailor.html).
I'm still at home because, unfortunately, there was a lack of attention to keeping social distance and wearing masks, and now those newly infected are more than 1000 a day. Of course, it begins at the top, and one can't really say that our ministers follow the rules they ostensibly set for the rest of us (https://www.timesofisrael.com/minister-knowingly-breaks-virus-guidelines-to-attend-ribbon-cutting/).
Quite frankly, though. I am a bit surprised that they have any time to pay attention to us (a good number of us that voted for them). They've been too busy setting up ministries and jobs for themselves (https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-34-ministers-of-israels-35th-government/) to notice that the citizens of the country could use some of those jobs. Do they realize that an unemployment rate of 20% is a 5 fold increase from previous unemployment rates before the Coronavirus struck?
The good news is that I am almost ready for my appearance before the Knesset Finance Committee. Sometime ago, we had to move to a bigger home, make renovations, etc, and more recently we've had additional expenses associated with having teenagers in the home. I feel very strongly that I, like the Prime Minister (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-knesset-committee-approves-million-shekel-tax-break-for-netanyahu-1.8941544), should receive retroactive tax breaks going back a number of years. In my case, I think tax refunds going back about 15 years would be just about right. I'll tell the committee that we could really use the money, and the amounts would really make a difference in our lives. I realize that I am not the Prime Minister, but if he asks himself how many times it has rained on his parade since he became Prime Minister, he should realize that if anyone deserves a break I do.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, June 17, 2020
Weather It Is (Small Update)
Good Afternoon:
The other day I wrote about wrapping up my work for the "winter" season, and that I was about to hang up my barometer -- which I did. For those of you unfamiliar with the phrase, please see here: (https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Hang%20up%20the%20guns). Basically, it means that I stopped looking out the window, as there isn't really any place to put ones barometer but on the wall.
Oh, what complaints did I get! First, we had a family Brit to attend to, which took place outside (because of Coronavirus protection regulations). The wind blew so strongly and fiercely that chairs blew away, and those fortunate to survive the gale had to be treated for hypothermia. Might have "you at least issued a warning and suggested a different venue?"
Then, a few days later, we lay sweltering under high heat and humidity. I can understand the heat, but humidity in Jerusalem? "Why wasn't the air conditioning turned on," I was asked?
The upshot is that I am back working -- back out off of summer vacation -- like an old butler called back to set the Queen's palace back on track.
The weather turned a tad on the chilly side, but we didn't see any of the rain that the global forecasts indicated for last week -- at least until last week arrived and we realized that it would justt be unseasonably cool. We're looking again for a chance of showers as Shabbat and early this coming week rolls around, as unseasonably cold weather arrives in the form of low pressure in the lower and upper atmosphere. The storm won't have a lot of mid-level moisture, so it is hard to see how there will be anything more than a passing shower.
After the passage of our upcoming "storm," there will a brief mid-week warm up. Beyond that, the calendar shows that I may truly be able to return to a well-deserved vacation. Basically, no weather is expected the last week of June.
We're all also keeping an eye on the calendar for other reasons: July 1st is the day our Prime Minister says he will bring a motion to declare sovereignty over parts of the West Bank, and oh what an uproar there is against this (e.g., https://www.timesofisrael.com/
In "Remember the Rogers Plan and Israel''s forgotten war" -- the war of attrition -- the writer quotes our previous Prime Minister, Golda Meir, who once wrote: "One cannot and must not try to erase the past, simply because it does not fit the present." For a meteorologist, the present (weather) always fits the past, even if we fail to forecast it.
But, what about the rest of the world that simply closes its eyes to the past? Or decides that the present ended at the inception of the State of Israel in 1948?
For us, the past is pretty straightforward. After most were exiled from our land by the Romans in 70 CE, we (the Jewish People) spent the years dispersed among the nations. The land (renamed Palestine) remained fairly desolate, was conquered by the Islamic Caliphate in 637, conquered by the Christians in 1099, conquered by the Khwarezmi Turks in 1244, the Ottomans in 1517, and the British in 1917. Through this time, there was a Jewish presence in the land, but it waxed and waned depending on the circumstances of who ruled the land.
And there history ends, or so we're supposed to believe. Oh, there is a bit more, but it is apparently meant very little when it came to the Jewish people. True, the British set aside a comparatively large parcel of land for Jewish settlement (i.e., the Balfour Declaration), and were given the mandate for Palestine by The League of Nations, which was transferred to the United Nations in 1946. Supposedly, the mandate included the provisional recognition of communities as individual nations until they could stand alone (https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/leagcov.asp#:~:text=ARTICLE%2022.&text=Certain%20communities%20formerly%20belonging%20to,are%20able%20to%20stand%20alone.).
Yet, not wanting to waste any time, Britain quickly created an independent state east of the Jordan River in 1921 -- except it is called Jordan and wasn't for the Jewish people.
Eventually, despite the Briish, the area west of the Jordan River was provisionally divided in 1947 after World War II among the local Arab and Jewish populations (Resolution 181), but it was rejected by the local Arab populations and the surrounding Arab countries, who sent their armies to snuff out the newly declared Jewish State of Israel -- with British help. Having failed, they tried again in 1967 and 1973 (although Hizbullah, Hamas, and Iran are still actively trying today). In the meantime, Israel came into position of the Old City and Judea and Samaria (or the "West Bank") during the 1967 war, and close to 600,000 Israelis now live in both areas.
Except they shouldn't. You see in the minds of the International Community, Israelis living in these areas are doing so in contradiction to "International Law." (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/30/opinion/sunday/west-bank-israel-annex.html). Besides being illegal, The New York Times says that it would be bad policy, as it would they say encourage radicalism among the Palestinians and create a number of unstable "Bantustans." The editors do admit, though, that the current US Administration does not view the "settlements" as illegal and that there are legitimate arguments for accepting Jewish residency in the "West Bank", contrary to the headline of their editorial.
Moreover, they fail to mention (and the international community ignores) a letter sent to their editorial board by Eugene Rostow (https://www.nytimes.com/1983/09/19/opinion/l-israel-s-settlement-right-is-unassailable-170524.html) who authored UN Resolution 242, which noted that Israel should withdraw from territories captured in the 1967 war, but not THE territories. Hence, Israeli retention of some of the territory in the West Bank would be consistent with UN Resolution 242, and acceptance of the Trump Plan would still leave at least 70% (or more) of the land mass for the creation of a Palestinian state.
Recently, The New York Times fired their editor for allowing the publication of an opinion piece by Senator Tom Cotton: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/03/opinion/tom-cotton-protests-military.html.
The remaining editors published a note stating:
1) "Given the life-and-death importance of the topic, the senator’s influential position and the gravity of the steps he advocates, the essay should have undergone the highest level of scrutiny. Instead, the editing process was rushed and flawed, and senior editors were not sufficiently involved.
2) "For example, the published piece presents as facts assertions about the role of “cadres of left-wing radicals like antifa”; in fact, those allegations have not been substantiated and have been widely questioned.
3) "The assertion that police officers “bore the brunt” of the violence is an overstatement that should have been challenged."
These are strong reasons for firing the editor, right? Yet, how many times has The Times published articles and opinion pieces about Israel that substitute opinion (or are those wishes?) falsely declaring that Israel is an Apartheid state, that it illegally occupies the West Bank, and has no "right" to exist. When it comes to the State of Israel, the rules that govern day to day life and judgement do not apply. And, it is not just The Times, but the EU has even warned Israel about the possibility of imposing sanctions (https://www.timesofisrael.com/eu-says-will-work-to-discourage-any-israeli-annexation-initiative/). The King of Jordan warns of massive unrest and that his government will consider all options (https://www.timesofisrael.com/jordans-king-warns-of-major-clash-if-israel-annexes-land-in-west-bank/) -- if Israel annexes (actually declares civil law) over any part of the Judea and Samaria.
In refusing the accept any changes to the armistice line, it's not just that Jews shouldn't have settled over it, or shouldn't live there, but in the minds of the naysayers it's as if there are no Jewish towns and villages, and even if they flew over them and looked down, they wouldn't see us as people -- in the present we simply don't exist.
Recently, I had a conversation with a friend who said the problem is that we shouldn't make any unilateral decisions -- that it all has to be done by negotiation. This seems to be the position of the German Foreign Minister (https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-israel-german-fm-calls-annexation-illegal-but-doesnt-threaten-sanctions/). Yossi Klein Halevi writes that any annexation will "undermine the core commitment Israel has made for decades: our willingness to negotiate over disputed territory" (https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/a-plea-to-gantz-ashkenazi-israel-and-its-friends-need-you-to-block-annexation/). He concludes that we (Israel) will be viewed as the rejectionists (regardless of how many potential peace agreements the Palestinians have already rejected, including the Trump Plan).
All this may be true, but it is a position contrary to common sense based on the means by which Israel came into possession of the land, its past ownership of the land and its historical rights, the recognition of its need for secure borders, and the length of time Israeli towns have existed over the old Armistice line.
If you miss my point, keep in mind the following recent announcement of the approval of the "Open Skies Agreement" (https://www.timesofisrael.com/eu-okays-landmark-israel-open-skies-aviation-deal-despite-annexation-tensions/) includes the following: "“the application of this Agreement is understood to be without prejudice to the status of the territories that came under Israeli administration after June 1967,” and that such territories are not part of the State of Israel. The Foreign Minister of Jordan: "“If annexation occurs, it will kill the two-state solution and destroy all the foundations on which the peace process was based. It will deprive the residents of the region of their right to live in peace and stability,” he said (https://www.timesofisrael.com/
There you have it: i) Don't you forget it: Airplanes may fly over it, but it isn't part of the State of Israel, ii) Annexation (ANY!) will kill the two state solution, iii) Israelis, of all people, should know not to steal.
I think the explanation for this hypocrisy is simple: for the vast majority of the world's peoples, but especially European and Arab nations, it was bad enough that the State of Israel survived its war of Independence long enough to reach an Armistice agreement (which explicitly stated that the "Green Line" was not an international border). Hence, for the government to extend Jewish sovereignty over even more territory is simply an a-front that cannot go unchallenged. Basically, the ingrained (and sometimes spoken) belief is that we the Europeans allowed you to survive as a people in your own sliver of land until now -- don't make us regret it even more than we do.
Still, there is room for optimism. If we go ahead and declare sovereignty, the same Luxembourg FM says that his country will recognize the State of Palestine, and so will others. Why is this good? Because once they do, in the minds of the EU statesmen, the argument will be one over borders, and they might, just might, forget that they don't want us to exist at all.
Barry Lynn
The other day I wrote about wrapping up my work for the "winter" season, and that I was about to hang up my barometer -- which I did. For those of you unfamiliar with the phrase, please see here: (https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Hang%20up%20the%20guns). Basically, it means that I stopped looking out the window, as there isn't really any place to put ones barometer but on the wall.
Oh, what complaints did I get! First, we had a family Brit to attend to, which took place outside (because of Coronavirus protection regulations). The wind blew so strongly and fiercely that chairs blew away, and those fortunate to survive the gale had to be treated for hypothermia. Might have "you at least issued a warning and suggested a different venue?"
Then, a few days later, we lay sweltering under high heat and humidity. I can understand the heat, but humidity in Jerusalem? "Why wasn't the air conditioning turned on," I was asked?
The upshot is that I am back working -- back out off of summer vacation -- like an old butler called back to set the Queen's palace back on track.
The weather turned a tad on the chilly side, but we didn't see any of the rain that the global forecasts indicated for last week -- at least until last week arrived and we realized that it would justt be unseasonably cool. We're looking again for a chance of showers as Shabbat and early this coming week rolls around, as unseasonably cold weather arrives in the form of low pressure in the lower and upper atmosphere. The storm won't have a lot of mid-level moisture, so it is hard to see how there will be anything more than a passing shower.
After the passage of our upcoming "storm," there will a brief mid-week warm up. Beyond that, the calendar shows that I may truly be able to return to a well-deserved vacation. Basically, no weather is expected the last week of June.
We're all also keeping an eye on the calendar for other reasons: July 1st is the day our Prime Minister says he will bring a motion to declare sovereignty over parts of the West Bank, and oh what an uproar there is against this (e.g., https://www.timesofisrael.com/
In "Remember the Rogers Plan and Israel''s forgotten war" -- the war of attrition -- the writer quotes our previous Prime Minister, Golda Meir, who once wrote: "One cannot and must not try to erase the past, simply because it does not fit the present." For a meteorologist, the present (weather) always fits the past, even if we fail to forecast it.
But, what about the rest of the world that simply closes its eyes to the past? Or decides that the present ended at the inception of the State of Israel in 1948?
For us, the past is pretty straightforward. After most were exiled from our land by the Romans in 70 CE, we (the Jewish People) spent the years dispersed among the nations. The land (renamed Palestine) remained fairly desolate, was conquered by the Islamic Caliphate in 637, conquered by the Christians in 1099, conquered by the Khwarezmi Turks in 1244, the Ottomans in 1517, and the British in 1917. Through this time, there was a Jewish presence in the land, but it waxed and waned depending on the circumstances of who ruled the land.
And there history ends, or so we're supposed to believe. Oh, there is a bit more, but it is apparently meant very little when it came to the Jewish people. True, the British set aside a comparatively large parcel of land for Jewish settlement (i.e., the Balfour Declaration), and were given the mandate for Palestine by The League of Nations, which was transferred to the United Nations in 1946. Supposedly, the mandate included the provisional recognition of communities as individual nations until they could stand alone (https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/leagcov.asp#:~:text=ARTICLE%2022.&text=Certain%20communities%20formerly%20belonging%20to,are%20able%20to%20stand%20alone.).
Yet, not wanting to waste any time, Britain quickly created an independent state east of the Jordan River in 1921 -- except it is called Jordan and wasn't for the Jewish people.
Eventually, despite the Briish, the area west of the Jordan River was provisionally divided in 1947 after World War II among the local Arab and Jewish populations (Resolution 181), but it was rejected by the local Arab populations and the surrounding Arab countries, who sent their armies to snuff out the newly declared Jewish State of Israel -- with British help. Having failed, they tried again in 1967 and 1973 (although Hizbullah, Hamas, and Iran are still actively trying today). In the meantime, Israel came into position of the Old City and Judea and Samaria (or the "West Bank") during the 1967 war, and close to 600,000 Israelis now live in both areas.
Except they shouldn't. You see in the minds of the International Community, Israelis living in these areas are doing so in contradiction to "International Law." (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/30/opinion/sunday/west-bank-israel-annex.html). Besides being illegal, The New York Times says that it would be bad policy, as it would they say encourage radicalism among the Palestinians and create a number of unstable "Bantustans." The editors do admit, though, that the current US Administration does not view the "settlements" as illegal and that there are legitimate arguments for accepting Jewish residency in the "West Bank", contrary to the headline of their editorial.
Moreover, they fail to mention (and the international community ignores) a letter sent to their editorial board by Eugene Rostow (https://www.nytimes.com/1983/09/19/opinion/l-israel-s-settlement-right-is-unassailable-170524.html) who authored UN Resolution 242, which noted that Israel should withdraw from territories captured in the 1967 war, but not THE territories. Hence, Israeli retention of some of the territory in the West Bank would be consistent with UN Resolution 242, and acceptance of the Trump Plan would still leave at least 70% (or more) of the land mass for the creation of a Palestinian state.
Recently, The New York Times fired their editor for allowing the publication of an opinion piece by Senator Tom Cotton: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/03/opinion/tom-cotton-protests-military.html.
The remaining editors published a note stating:
1) "Given the life-and-death importance of the topic, the senator’s influential position and the gravity of the steps he advocates, the essay should have undergone the highest level of scrutiny. Instead, the editing process was rushed and flawed, and senior editors were not sufficiently involved.
2) "For example, the published piece presents as facts assertions about the role of “cadres of left-wing radicals like antifa”; in fact, those allegations have not been substantiated and have been widely questioned.
3) "The assertion that police officers “bore the brunt” of the violence is an overstatement that should have been challenged."
These are strong reasons for firing the editor, right? Yet, how many times has The Times published articles and opinion pieces about Israel that substitute opinion (or are those wishes?) falsely declaring that Israel is an Apartheid state, that it illegally occupies the West Bank, and has no "right" to exist. When it comes to the State of Israel, the rules that govern day to day life and judgement do not apply. And, it is not just The Times, but the EU has even warned Israel about the possibility of imposing sanctions (https://www.timesofisrael.com/eu-says-will-work-to-discourage-any-israeli-annexation-initiative/). The King of Jordan warns of massive unrest and that his government will consider all options (https://www.timesofisrael.com/jordans-king-warns-of-major-clash-if-israel-annexes-land-in-west-bank/) -- if Israel annexes (actually declares civil law) over any part of the Judea and Samaria.
In refusing the accept any changes to the armistice line, it's not just that Jews shouldn't have settled over it, or shouldn't live there, but in the minds of the naysayers it's as if there are no Jewish towns and villages, and even if they flew over them and looked down, they wouldn't see us as people -- in the present we simply don't exist.
Recently, I had a conversation with a friend who said the problem is that we shouldn't make any unilateral decisions -- that it all has to be done by negotiation. This seems to be the position of the German Foreign Minister (https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-israel-german-fm-calls-annexation-illegal-but-doesnt-threaten-sanctions/). Yossi Klein Halevi writes that any annexation will "undermine the core commitment Israel has made for decades: our willingness to negotiate over disputed territory" (https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/a-plea-to-gantz-ashkenazi-israel-and-its-friends-need-you-to-block-annexation/). He concludes that we (Israel) will be viewed as the rejectionists (regardless of how many potential peace agreements the Palestinians have already rejected, including the Trump Plan).
All this may be true, but it is a position contrary to common sense based on the means by which Israel came into possession of the land, its past ownership of the land and its historical rights, the recognition of its need for secure borders, and the length of time Israeli towns have existed over the old Armistice line.
If you miss my point, keep in mind the following recent announcement of the approval of the "Open Skies Agreement" (https://www.timesofisrael.com/eu-okays-landmark-israel-open-skies-aviation-deal-despite-annexation-tensions/) includes the following: "“the application of this Agreement is understood to be without prejudice to the status of the territories that came under Israeli administration after June 1967,” and that such territories are not part of the State of Israel. The Foreign Minister of Jordan: "“If annexation occurs, it will kill the two-state solution and destroy all the foundations on which the peace process was based. It will deprive the residents of the region of their right to live in peace and stability,” he said (https://www.timesofisrael.com/
There you have it: i) Don't you forget it: Airplanes may fly over it, but it isn't part of the State of Israel, ii) Annexation (ANY!) will kill the two state solution, iii) Israelis, of all people, should know not to steal.
I think the explanation for this hypocrisy is simple: for the vast majority of the world's peoples, but especially European and Arab nations, it was bad enough that the State of Israel survived its war of Independence long enough to reach an Armistice agreement (which explicitly stated that the "Green Line" was not an international border). Hence, for the government to extend Jewish sovereignty over even more territory is simply an a-front that cannot go unchallenged. Basically, the ingrained (and sometimes spoken) belief is that we the Europeans allowed you to survive as a people in your own sliver of land until now -- don't make us regret it even more than we do.
Still, there is room for optimism. If we go ahead and declare sovereignty, the same Luxembourg FM says that his country will recognize the State of Palestine, and so will others. Why is this good? Because once they do, in the minds of the EU statesmen, the argument will be one over borders, and they might, just might, forget that they don't want us to exist at all.
Barry Lynn
Monday, June 1, 2020
Weather It Is (Saying Thanks)
Good Evening:
Looking ahead at the weather maps for the next two weeks suggests that the weatherman should take a long awaited rest. True, there will be some ups and downs in the temperatures, but these should be more like the gentle undulation of the summer sea than winter tempest.
A while back I wrote a blog about last week's weather -- only I wrote it the week before last week's weather. I pointed out that we'd already had one unusual May (winter) rain, and that our unusually intense and unusually long lasting heatwave would likely be followed by another winter like storm. At one point the global forecasts suggested that this would be a late spring storm more reminiscent of our most severe winter storms. In the end, though nighttime and morning rains fell fast and furious in many locations, it was over before the afternoon, and some places saw only sprinkles.
I had hoped that this last storm would "bring the house down," before moving into our summer months, and that I would finally get the recognition I've felt I deserved all along. Alas I did not...
Until, I did. It happened just the other day that my wife came downstairs and said: "this weather is really amazing." I told her that I agreed with her and then I waited. And then it came: "thank you."
I may make a mess in the kitchen, but where it counts there is appreciation!
One strange thing about being in relative seclusion is that I find I miss people that I never thought I would ever miss. I find myself actually happy to see my neighbor or catch a word with someone who just used to just pass me by on the street.
Of course, this is a far different kind of missing than the missing that unfortunately happens to all of us if we spend enough time here on earth. We're either missing someone or eventually being missed ourselves. Such is a time for sad words, occasionally with perhaps a moment of happier recollection. But, its also the time when you wish you could have said something or wish you could say something that the other person would have appreciated hearing, if only (perhaps they are) could hear just then.
But, what if you could actually be sure that the person or persons get the message? Wouldn't it be better to pass the message on while you know you can?
I've been pondering this question for a while and decided that I would try to write a letter to my parents, saying simply "Thank you." I really want them to know how much I appreciate them and how important they have been to me, my family, and how much I have enjoyed their spending time with us and their grandchildren.
When we're young, we have a feeling of endless time. We get up, we go to school, the coming of summer brings an extra bit of joy, and we simply assume that our parents will make it all happen. They comfort when needed: like the time when I ignored their admonition not to ride my tricycle without shoes on. They put food on the table: we even had a dinner bell so we wouldn't be late for supper. Nothing was tastier than Dad's chicken in a bag, or Mom's pies. I can't even count the number of salads my mother made -- that is dedication. They had endless patience to help with homework, and were always there to drop us off or pick us up.
Yet, childhood was not easy, for them or us. We all had challenges that needed attention. We had neighbors who I definitely do not miss for their teasing. At one point my mother went back to work, while my father studied for his Ph.D. Those were hard years where Dad was home, but he wasn't home.
Ironically, I've done the same thing. I worked many days at home, and even right out in the open of our living room. Yet, I was too busy at times to relate like a father should.
But, how do I really know how a father or parent should relate? Simply because of them. Mom and Dad didn't just take care of us, but they also taught us their values. It was these fundamental values that enabled me to find my "soulmate," who was raised in a family quite different from ours, but with the same values of honesty, kindness, and belief in responsibility. They also taught us to make up our own minds and respected our interests. The wind vane my father placed on the apex of the house is still there. I received payment for growing strawberries in my garden, and now my garden is full of blueberries, raspberries, blackberries, cherries... I still have the bicycle I received before and used on my first real cross-country trip
It seems like I lived at home forever. Yet, most of my life has been spent beyond the years when I lived at home. But, inbetween leaving home and having a family of my own there was a transition. One might think that children leave -- or at least children think this -- that parents stop being parents, but it isn't so. I still remember my father giving me advice about what I should do after finishing my Ph.D: I wanted to go to Israel to learn Torah and he said I should work first, so I could be sure to have a job when I returned. I was so angry (at him) because I wanted more than just learning, but a religious family too, and I wanted it then, not later. Still, I accepted his advice, went to learn 4 years afterwards, and parlayed my work experience into a job that I still have 20 years later. Dad and I used to bicycle together and I resented being told I was riding my bicycle too far off the shoulder. He agreed to tone it down. Yet, I am certain to give my children the same type of advice. In fact, I don't hesitate to give advice when I think safety matters are at hand.
Now, our relationship has evolved from parent-child to one of parent-grandchildren. This is something we never had, as their parents or our grandparents passed away too soon.
It was and is as grandparents that my parents' kindness has made all the difference in our lives. There is nothing nicer than a new winter hat from Grandma or a fun game to play when it rains. Both packed and carried duffel bags almost as large as elephants on their periodic visits. One day Mom decided that our apartment was too small, and within a few months we we're looking to move. The kids need a tutor, please let us help.
There is a joke about moving to Israel: how do you make a small fortune? Move to Israel with a large fortune. To be honest, just have one of your kids live in Israel. It's not the way it should be, but they adapted their beliefs to fit the situation.
Of course, having the means to help and actually helping are not the same thing. There are people who want to help, but can't. There are people who could help, but won't. Then, there are people who want to help, and do help.
Moreover, it's not just me -- they've always been there for my siblings, no matter how small or how large the problem. To them, family is more than a word, it's a creed.
I suppose I could have written a different type of blog, and told a few stories about our lives together. Stories, though, are fleeting. They overshadow the daily day to day interactions that life is really made of. They overshadow life itself, but they are not what life is.
Barry Lynn
Looking ahead at the weather maps for the next two weeks suggests that the weatherman should take a long awaited rest. True, there will be some ups and downs in the temperatures, but these should be more like the gentle undulation of the summer sea than winter tempest.
A while back I wrote a blog about last week's weather -- only I wrote it the week before last week's weather. I pointed out that we'd already had one unusual May (winter) rain, and that our unusually intense and unusually long lasting heatwave would likely be followed by another winter like storm. At one point the global forecasts suggested that this would be a late spring storm more reminiscent of our most severe winter storms. In the end, though nighttime and morning rains fell fast and furious in many locations, it was over before the afternoon, and some places saw only sprinkles.
I had hoped that this last storm would "bring the house down," before moving into our summer months, and that I would finally get the recognition I've felt I deserved all along. Alas I did not...
Until, I did. It happened just the other day that my wife came downstairs and said: "this weather is really amazing." I told her that I agreed with her and then I waited. And then it came: "thank you."
I may make a mess in the kitchen, but where it counts there is appreciation!
One strange thing about being in relative seclusion is that I find I miss people that I never thought I would ever miss. I find myself actually happy to see my neighbor or catch a word with someone who just used to just pass me by on the street.
Of course, this is a far different kind of missing than the missing that unfortunately happens to all of us if we spend enough time here on earth. We're either missing someone or eventually being missed ourselves. Such is a time for sad words, occasionally with perhaps a moment of happier recollection. But, its also the time when you wish you could have said something or wish you could say something that the other person would have appreciated hearing, if only (perhaps they are) could hear just then.
But, what if you could actually be sure that the person or persons get the message? Wouldn't it be better to pass the message on while you know you can?
I've been pondering this question for a while and decided that I would try to write a letter to my parents, saying simply "Thank you." I really want them to know how much I appreciate them and how important they have been to me, my family, and how much I have enjoyed their spending time with us and their grandchildren.
When we're young, we have a feeling of endless time. We get up, we go to school, the coming of summer brings an extra bit of joy, and we simply assume that our parents will make it all happen. They comfort when needed: like the time when I ignored their admonition not to ride my tricycle without shoes on. They put food on the table: we even had a dinner bell so we wouldn't be late for supper. Nothing was tastier than Dad's chicken in a bag, or Mom's pies. I can't even count the number of salads my mother made -- that is dedication. They had endless patience to help with homework, and were always there to drop us off or pick us up.
Yet, childhood was not easy, for them or us. We all had challenges that needed attention. We had neighbors who I definitely do not miss for their teasing. At one point my mother went back to work, while my father studied for his Ph.D. Those were hard years where Dad was home, but he wasn't home.
Ironically, I've done the same thing. I worked many days at home, and even right out in the open of our living room. Yet, I was too busy at times to relate like a father should.
But, how do I really know how a father or parent should relate? Simply because of them. Mom and Dad didn't just take care of us, but they also taught us their values. It was these fundamental values that enabled me to find my "soulmate," who was raised in a family quite different from ours, but with the same values of honesty, kindness, and belief in responsibility. They also taught us to make up our own minds and respected our interests. The wind vane my father placed on the apex of the house is still there. I received payment for growing strawberries in my garden, and now my garden is full of blueberries, raspberries, blackberries, cherries... I still have the bicycle I received before and used on my first real cross-country trip
It seems like I lived at home forever. Yet, most of my life has been spent beyond the years when I lived at home. But, inbetween leaving home and having a family of my own there was a transition. One might think that children leave -- or at least children think this -- that parents stop being parents, but it isn't so. I still remember my father giving me advice about what I should do after finishing my Ph.D: I wanted to go to Israel to learn Torah and he said I should work first, so I could be sure to have a job when I returned. I was so angry (at him) because I wanted more than just learning, but a religious family too, and I wanted it then, not later. Still, I accepted his advice, went to learn 4 years afterwards, and parlayed my work experience into a job that I still have 20 years later. Dad and I used to bicycle together and I resented being told I was riding my bicycle too far off the shoulder. He agreed to tone it down. Yet, I am certain to give my children the same type of advice. In fact, I don't hesitate to give advice when I think safety matters are at hand.
Now, our relationship has evolved from parent-child to one of parent-grandchildren. This is something we never had, as their parents or our grandparents passed away too soon.
It was and is as grandparents that my parents' kindness has made all the difference in our lives. There is nothing nicer than a new winter hat from Grandma or a fun game to play when it rains. Both packed and carried duffel bags almost as large as elephants on their periodic visits. One day Mom decided that our apartment was too small, and within a few months we we're looking to move. The kids need a tutor, please let us help.
There is a joke about moving to Israel: how do you make a small fortune? Move to Israel with a large fortune. To be honest, just have one of your kids live in Israel. It's not the way it should be, but they adapted their beliefs to fit the situation.
Of course, having the means to help and actually helping are not the same thing. There are people who want to help, but can't. There are people who could help, but won't. Then, there are people who want to help, and do help.
Moreover, it's not just me -- they've always been there for my siblings, no matter how small or how large the problem. To them, family is more than a word, it's a creed.
I suppose I could have written a different type of blog, and told a few stories about our lives together. Stories, though, are fleeting. They overshadow the daily day to day interactions that life is really made of. They overshadow life itself, but they are not what life is.
Barry Lynn
Friday, May 22, 2020
Weather It Is (Just Some Rain)
Good Morning:
The polar jet is now forecast to amplify over northern Europe at the expense of the low pressure system ejecting into the eastern Mediterranean. This will draw the low pressure system further north, meaning that the chance for severe weather in our area is now quite low.
Hence, just some light to moderate rain is expected mostly Sunday into Monday. Much cooler weather for the coming week!
Shabbat Shalom,
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
Weather It Is (Severe Thunder Storms Possible)
Good Afternoon:
Highlight: Severe Thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon into Monday Morning.
An unusually strong and hot high pressure system will move to our east Thursday night. Winds will switch to the west, and temperatures should then start trending downwards on Friday.
However, this is not your typical heat wave that will dissipate to be replaced by more temperate springtime temperatures.
The probability of storms and accompanying heavy rain (strong winds, hail, thunder and lightning) has increased over the last few days, with more recent forecasts bringing the storm further south and west -- an ideal location for us to bring heavy rain.
In fact, unusually cold air should drop southward from the polar jet-stream: temperatures will fall off at all levels of the atmosphere and humidity levels will sharply increase as we move into Sunday.
The warming sea and strong sun should combine to provide plenty of moisture to increase CAPE (convective available potential energy) as Sunday morning moves into Sunday afternoon. Moreover, the upper level trough is associated with a very strong "vorticity" maximum, which should cause divergence aloft, and upward vertical motion. Hence, the forecast for strong thunderstorms that should develop on Sunday and last into Monday, affecting a large part of the country from north to south.
The current heat wave has been described as unprecedented -- mostly in terms of its duration, but May itself was already punctuated by a "winter rain" and our upcoming storm may cement this May in the memories of all.
Barry Lynn
Highlight: Severe Thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon into Monday Morning.
An unusually strong and hot high pressure system will move to our east Thursday night. Winds will switch to the west, and temperatures should then start trending downwards on Friday.
However, this is not your typical heat wave that will dissipate to be replaced by more temperate springtime temperatures.
The probability of storms and accompanying heavy rain (strong winds, hail, thunder and lightning) has increased over the last few days, with more recent forecasts bringing the storm further south and west -- an ideal location for us to bring heavy rain.
In fact, unusually cold air should drop southward from the polar jet-stream: temperatures will fall off at all levels of the atmosphere and humidity levels will sharply increase as we move into Sunday.
The warming sea and strong sun should combine to provide plenty of moisture to increase CAPE (convective available potential energy) as Sunday morning moves into Sunday afternoon. Moreover, the upper level trough is associated with a very strong "vorticity" maximum, which should cause divergence aloft, and upward vertical motion. Hence, the forecast for strong thunderstorms that should develop on Sunday and last into Monday, affecting a large part of the country from north to south.
The current heat wave has been described as unprecedented -- mostly in terms of its duration, but May itself was already punctuated by a "winter rain" and our upcoming storm may cement this May in the memories of all.
Barry Lynn
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