Weather It Is (Unbearable Heat)

 Good Afternoon:

Counterclockwise winds circulating around low pressure centered just to our east will bring the hottest weather of the summer, and the hottest weather in quite some time.

Unfortunately, temperatures should be two to three degrees hotter than the heat wave of our recent past, meaning temperatures near 40 C (or above), instead of in the upper 30s in the central mountain areas. Temperatures in coastal areas should be in the mid-30s, but with higher humidity (meaning, very high heat indices).  Temperatures in the normally hotter locations of the upper Jordan Valley should be in the upper 40s.  Eilat should be in the upper 40s, as well. 

The dangerous heat conditions should persist from Thursday this week until Monday or Tuesday of next week.  There is a 30% chance the heat wave will continue through Tuesday, before more normal summertime temperatures return on Wednesday.

It is very important to drink plenty of water during a heat wave like this, and if someone must be outside they should drink water and juice.  One sign of hyperthermia is clammy feeling skin.  Just because you're not sweating doesn't mean that you don't need to drink.  In fact, the end stage of heat stroke is a lack of sweat (moisture) to cool the body (https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/heat-exhaustion-heatstroke/).

Take Care,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Extreme Heat)

 Good Evening:

Dangerous and life threatening temperatures!

Low pressure building northwestward from the Saudi Arabian Desert will bring us extreme heat from Shabbat into Tuesday.  Temperatures will be in the upper 30s to near 40 in the central mountain areas, upper 30s in the inland hills, and low 40s in the Old City of Sefad.  Along coastal areas, temperatures should be in the middle 30s. 

After a mid week cool down (of several degrees) into the low 30s, there is a 60% chance that extreme heat will return late next week, into the following week.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Note About Moshe Silverman)

 Good Afternoon:

The global forecast shows that we've entered a period where little will change until the calendar turns into September.  It's given me time to ponder. To reflect.

Unfortunately, to reflect on what you do when your friend and study partner falls down, suffers a mortal injury, and departs unexpectedly from this world.  It makes you wonder if life is just completely random? Or, if we are just like leaves thrown about by the wind?

The story starts many years ago when Moshe (Silverman) of "Philly Pizza" asked me if I would be interested in learning with him in the mornings, for about half-hour a day. Moshe worked many years at the Philly Pizza, serving both local residents and those (including tour groups) visiting Efrat and the greater Gush Etzion area.  He served all who came and with great equanimity. We started learning together about eleven years ago, and had our last study session this last Monday.  You've all heard of Adin Steinsaltz (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adin_Steinsaltz), who passed away not long ago.  I am here to tell you about Moshe.  Moshe's footprint may have been smaller than Rabbi Steinsaltz's, but it was just as deep.

Our learning session enabled me to integrate my religious life with my working life.  Both of us worked hard (if he not harder), but together we made time for learning the Gomorra (Oral Tradition of the Torah).  While we never learned very much at anyone time, we learned together, consistently over these eleven years.

Unfortunately, Moshe developed ALS some time ago, and was forced to retire this last January from work.  Yet, instead of focusing on what would be, he focused on what he could do with the unexpected "windfall" of time.  He spent more time with his family, and our study times (interrupted by his disease and the Coronavirus) were longer and more fulfilling.  

But, who was he, outside of these rather dry facts?  

Moshe was person who embodied Torah values, while working and practicing a religiously observant life. He even completed the recent difficult fast of this past 9th of Av. He was firm in his beliefs, but not judgemental.   He had only good things to say about his family, and spoke proudly of his children.  Moshe was a person of infinite patience and optimism.  He led our learning, but never pushed ahead until we both were comfortable with our understanding of the text before us.  He never criticized, but only rejoiced in our greater understanding. He never tired of going back, and never faltered going forward.  

Moshe died on Shabbat of Parshat Re' Eh.  In this parsha, God tells the Jewish people "Behold, I set before you today, a blessing and a curse..."  Rabbi Judah Mischel (in Torah Tidbits, issue 1383, August 15th, 2020) explains that God is telling us to seize the day, to make today a blessing -- that to leave over or procrastinate can only delay the good, if not bring on the "bad."  Likewise, Moshe was a person who never dwelled on the negative, but asked only what he could be today as the person he was that day.  Imagine if you had to make a 100 pizzas a day?  You can only make them one at a time, and similarly you can only live your day one day at a time.Without this attitude, he could never have endured let alone be contented with his forced retirement.  In fact, his family doesn't look back at the last six months as a time of difficulty, but one where the days were spent, for the first time, with wife, children, and grand children.

When we met last Monday, he'd already fallen a few times, but I don't think that anyone imagined that he would fall and end his life. Instead, I imagined or at least hoped that we could continue our learning (we came close to finishing "Baba Kama"), and of course hoped for a small miracle that his disease would progress ever so slowly.  But, what is slow when -- he told me -- his physical condition continued to appreciably deteriorate?

Yet, when we last departed, I took special note that it wasn't like our usual partings: when he said "I'll call you or we'll meet soon." I too forgot to mention it, and as I crossed the parking lot to my home I pondered just what it might have meant. Thinking back, it makes you wonder if not everything is random. Besides not saying "see you soon," he died on the Shabbat whose Torah Portion exemplified his life, and he died before having to endure the suffering that so many with ALS (and others with unfortunate illnesses) have to endure.  

I'm often too busy to ponder and ask myself what am I doing and why.  I just do what seems to come up, often with my eye on tomorrow. 

Moshe was the opposite.  His eye was on today, and for that reason his last days were full days, days that I'll remember, and so will his family.

I still want to believe that he'll soon come to my door to continue our learning, but I know I will have to finish our last chapter for both of us.

May we only have good news,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Some Swings: Beat the Virus!)

 Good Afternoon:

Weatherwise, we're on the edge of cooler air located to our north, and hotter, more summer like air to our south.  The high heat is associated with a ridge over Africa while the cooler, more fall like weather is associated with a trough of colder weather originating in Siberia.

The ridge will push north a bit over the next week and temperatures will move back from the mid to upper 20s to the low to mid 30s.  Yet, by early next week the ridge will amply and the trough will push back southwards. This means that we'll be back to cooler summer weather by mid-week next week.

Some of you might have heard that there were both light and heavier showers across the landscape the last couple of days. You might have even gotten a tad wet.  Most of the rain was located along coastal areas. Rain doesn't occur that often in summer - still, it seems appropriate that our wet winter would be followed by some summer showers. 

While the summer's weather has been conducive to walks and other outdoor activities, too many activities indoors have led to a large spike in the Coronavirus infection rate.  Of course, these often take place with unmasked participants or those wearing their masks below the nose.  I had the opportunity (unwanted) to visit the hospital Hadassah Ein Kerem.  I started counting the people walking through the hospital corridors in the mall area with their mask worn under the nose.  Based on the percentage of noses exposed (https://healthcare-in-europe.com/en/news/nose-cells-identified-as-likely-coronavirus-entry-points.html), one can extrapolate that we'll arrive at somewhere close to a million Israelis infected by next summer (without a vaccine).  This would bring our numbers from about 1 in 100 to 1 in 10 people.  Folks can always be unlucky, but a simple change in behavior could make a big difference in how many people get sick or not. 

I find the whole thing to be quite stressful.  Most stressful is trying to schedule appointments. How do you schedule an appointment if you can schedule it any time you want to?  Suddenly, my ordered and regular life is full of far too many choices.

Yet, one ancillary, but beneficial result of the Coronavirus is that it presents opportunities to take part in weddings, at least vicariously.  The other night I was off to see the doctor and was instructed to wait outside by my Maccabi appointment message. I stepped outside just in time to hear the 7 marriage blessings, from a wedding taking place outside on the hill across the street.  I found myself smiling. We may be confined, but in many ways we're closer to our families and neighbors than before.

For instance, the kids are mostly home this summer, and the wife both taught school and took an online course.  She's learning the subject of Behavioral Analysis; supposedly, she sees it as a way to expand her professional qualifications. 

Keep this in mind when you consider -- as you may have inferred, I prefer having an ordered schedule, preferably one that leaves little time for choosing new and  different activities.

Still, I have to admit my surprise when the true purpose of her taking the course bore itself out.  After agreeing -- on the spur of the moment -- to pick up the kids, I received two stickers in my WhatsApp box.  The stickers came with a message: "for every 10 stickers you'll receive a gift -- keep up the good work!"  (I'd done something out of schedule.)

I have to tell you that I've never been more excited in my life.  I've had two Sushi dinners, and even received permission to take a Friday off and do what I really like to do.  This didn't work out too well (for my wife), as our choices are limited these days, and I said that I think I would prefer to be in (and was) in the kitchen making lots of different foods for Shabbat. 

One goal of Behavioral Analysis is to change behavior even after the positive reinforcement ends.  I can't say that I've reached that stage, hmm.  I can suggest, though, that our government instruct our police to give vouchers for 50 NIS (or maybe even a hundred) to those wearing masks -- covering their mouth and nose.  This may be the best way for us to beat the virus.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Hot!)

Good afternoon:

Low pressure to our southeast continues to intensify, and high temperatures associated with it will peak on Thursday (the 9th of Av).  Temperatures will reach dangerous levels, and this is especially so for people fasting on Thursday.  People fasting can easily dehydrate and possibly suffer from hyperthermia if they are not extremely careful. Temperatures should be in the mid to upper 30s inland, and the low to mid 30s in the coastal plain, and in the low 40s in the Jordan Valley. Eilat takes top heat honors, with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s all week.

In our last blog, we were hopeful that the heatwave would break Wednesday night, but for the last few days it's been apparent that the heat wave will not break until Friday.  Because there is going to be low humidity, it's very important to stay inside and out of the heat as much as possible.

Summer may feel like it has finally arrived, but the longer range forecast is actually showing milder temperatures as we move into the first and second weeks of August.

It's definitely a bad week for it to be so hot, and a sad period of time for the Jewish people.  There have been many tragedies during this period.  Both Temples (yes, they existed Mr. Abbas) were destroyed during this time (https://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/295601/jewish/Breaking-Walls.htm), and this date in Jewish history was chosen by others to implement their evil practices (https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/7-tragedies-that-befell-the-jewish-people-on-tisha-beav-598199).

Unfortunately, these can be times of personal tragedy.  Our town has the difficult task of saying goodbye to one our residents, Dr. and Rabbi Mordecai Reich .  He was a person known by many, and loved by many for both his insight and kindness expressed to all that he met. During his prolonged illness, he fought hard against and yet still found the time to write Divrei Torah to his family each Shabbat eve.  Before his passing, his children did him the honor and kindness of making his writings into a book.  His kindness and love must now be sought in the words that he wrote.  Yet, I can't help but thinking that a person so special can't just disappear, that one day in the future his family will see his kind and loving personality within of Sima and Mordecai's  grandchildren.

I'm not really the person to write or deal with loss.  I find it very hard to throw anything, let alone to say goodbye to anyone.  I'm even not one to get rid of a old sock or undershirt until I'm not sure which side is in or which hole is for my head.  I have papers stretching back years and pictures or drawings my kids made -- stored away in boxes.

Yet, I often wonder if these memories stored away are not necessarily easy to find.  And, if one cannot retrieve or even remember those instances in life that had meaning or brought happiness, then what does one really have?

That's why it's so important to at least put in order your memories and make available them to your children those that you want to pass on. It can be something written, an old photo album (with names to go along),  or even a picture or childhood drawing that gives grounding to the past,  and present value and meaning to those who participate in these memories. To be quite frank, it's really important to know where you've come from because without them you'll never know where you need to go.  Hence, that's why "Cancel Culture" is for dummies.

I wish that I could offer more than words to the Reich family, and more than encouragement for a future filled with times of happiness.  I can't make these things happen, but I am at least confident that Mordecai and Sima have brought to this world the possibility that these will come to pass.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Summer Arrives)

Good Afternoon:

It's the end of the third week in July and summer has finally arrived, almost.

While the first part of this week will be just hot, the second half of the week and especially this Shabbat weekend will turn noticeably hotter.  It will be a good time to get wet and stay wet, although there will be some observing the 9 days prior to the 9th of Av who won't go swimming no matter how hot it is.  These folks will need to stay in the shade or indoors.  Fortunately, the heat is expected to break Wednesday night of next week, as the fast commences.

It's been a busy time here in Israel, if not elsewhere where the number of Coronavirus cases has more than tripled over the last month.  How did it happen?

Speaking of my experience here, I can tell you that the increase in cases occurred for the following reasons.

1) People did not wear masks and keep their distance from others.
2) The new government opened schools, did not require that masks be worn at schools during the week of the heatwave in May, and did not enforce mask wearing thereafter.
3) The new government allowed crowds to fill buses.
4) Large private parties were held.
5) Government ministers did not set good examples for mass wearing or attending large social events.
6) People did not wear masks and keep their distance from others.

On my recent trip to the mall, I did notice a very large fraction of people properly wearing masks (covering their noses and mouth).  However, there were some eating without masks (hard to eat with one), and some just not wearing their masks.  Since the mall is a closed area, these people (parents and children) are more likely to get sick, and then get those at home sick as well.

Now, as noted in the Jerusalem Post's summary of Health Ministry statistics "Who has the virus and where did they catch it?", most people caught the virus at home, from another family member.  Hence, the most dangerous place to be is the home!  While technically true, one should keep in mind that the virus is not hovering like the boogey man (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bogeyman) waiting to pounce as we're sleeping.  Rather, the virus takes advantage of stupidity (or just plain carelessness or bad luck).  For instance, the Post reported that 9.5% caught the virus at schools, and 5.6% at event halls, followed closely by religious establishments at 4.8%.  One can also become sick eating in restaurants and visiting bars  (4%).  The flip side is being outside, going to the pool, or sports field are safer activities, with the sports field being the least safe of the three.

To repeat, how did we and other countries such as the US get to this situation (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)?  By not wearing masks and not keeping social distancing. In fact, of those you see most often not wearing masks: 40% of those sick in Israel are between the ages of 10 to 30, and they also are making up a higher percentage of severe cases as their relative percentage of the total sick grows (see also: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/us/coronavirus-cases-young-people.html).  Worse, 1/3 adults age 18-25 can develop severe symptoms (https://www.sciencealert.com/smoking-may-explain-why-1-in-3-young-adults-are-at-risk-of-severe-coronavirus).  Moreover, it takes time for symptoms to appear (and they don't appear in everyone) https://www.singlecare.com/blog/news/coronavirus-symptoms-and-incubation-period/), so the disease is easily spread.

In contrast, the number of cases in European countries are way down (https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-europe-slowed-its-coronavirus-cases-from-a-torrent-to-a-trickle-11595240731?).  This is attributed to the continued banning of large gatherings, consistent testing and tracking of individuals, while wearing masks and keeping social distancing.

Don't go out without a mask ON: the life you save may be your own.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Or Not)

Good Evening:

The wind continues to blow, and as a result, the apples continue to fall off our tree. After a period of intense heat in late May, June turned out to be  a tad on average cooler than normal.  It was also quite windy, and it seems like the wind never stops.  It's nice, but it makes you wish for just a bit more calm in these tumultuous times.

Our relatively cool, but beautiful, kite flying weather is courtesy of a broad trough of lower pressure in the upper atmosphere, whose origin is actually as far north as Scandinavia.  Associated with this trough is a weak area of low pressure situated over the eastern Mediterranean, and as a result our winds have been blowing from the relatively cool northwest.  Normally, we're under the influence of desert low pressure, which means high heat and quite stagnant conditions.

The weather for the rest of the week should stay cool, but next week should seem more summer like temperatures.  However, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast over the next two weeks, which makes sense as our weather is unusually cool for summertime, and the circulation pattern unusually wavy for this time of year.  In fact, we don't really seem to be under the influence of the western edge of the  Indian Monsoon, which usually brings us hotter weather as westward moving air sinks off the Jordanian mountain ridge.

It's great that summer seems on hold, as we can keep the windows open as we work or just play at home.  A good breeze, like an apple a day, can keep the coronavirus away.  Of course, it can't keep the husband out of the wife's hair.  First, she suggested I work upstairs, and from there she asked if maybe I wanted to physically go the University to work.  It wasn't long, though, before she suggested I visit my parents, knowing fully well that the only way to get there is to sail, and that isn't exactly flying (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/28/world/americas/coronavirus-argentina-sailor.html).


I'm still at home because, unfortunately, there was a lack of attention to keeping social distance and wearing masks, and now those newly infected are more than 1000 a day.  Of course, it begins at the top, and one can't really say that our ministers follow the rules they ostensibly set for the rest of us (https://www.timesofisrael.com/minister-knowingly-breaks-virus-guidelines-to-attend-ribbon-cutting/).

Quite frankly, though. I am a bit surprised that they have any time to pay attention to us (a good number of us that voted for them). They've been too busy setting up ministries and jobs for themselves (https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-34-ministers-of-israels-35th-government/) to notice that the citizens of the country could use some of those jobs.  Do they realize that an unemployment rate of 20% is a 5 fold increase from previous unemployment rates before the Coronavirus struck?

The good news is that I am almost ready for my appearance before the Knesset Finance Committee.  Sometime ago, we had to move to a bigger home, make renovations, etc, and more recently we've had additional expenses associated with having teenagers in the home.  I feel very strongly that I, like the Prime Minister (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-knesset-committee-approves-million-shekel-tax-break-for-netanyahu-1.8941544), should receive retroactive tax breaks going back a number of years.  In my case, I think tax refunds going back about 15 years would be just about right. I'll tell the committee that we could really use the money, and the amounts would really make a difference in our lives.  I realize that I am not the Prime Minister, but if he asks himself how many times it has rained on his parade since he became Prime Minister, he should realize that if anyone deserves a break I do.

Barry Lynn