Weather It Is (Stormy if not Snowy Weather)

Good Morning:

This morning I woke my wife up with "get up! It's a beautiful day!"  Of course, it was not a "traditional" beautiful day, but a wintery and grey day -- a portend?  The good news is that after some grumbling she was incredibly efficient, cleaning here and there, getting a head start of the Shabbat cooking, and even making me some vegetarian "ham"-burgers.  These are made from something that actually looks like ground beef you buy from the butcher, but there was no butchering done at all -- just some creative manipulation of what one might call plant material.

Moving onto the weather, we've had the good fortune to move from an extended period of dry weather to at least a period of wet weather.  Another storm will move in from the west on Monday, and it should be followed by our third storm within a week's time on Wednesday/Thursday.

The global forecasts have been indicating for some time that there will be an extended cold period from the 18th (Monday) through Thursday (the 21st)  next week, with the greatest likelihood of cold weather to arrive Wednesday and Thursday.  More recent forecasts indicate a greater possibility of snow in the higher elevations of the central and northern mountains.   The cold air would arrive from the direction of Siberia as another storm moves southeastward on Wednesday.

Motzei Shabbat will give us a better indication of what type of weather will be in the air next week.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

 

Weather It Is (Winter Arrives)

 Good Afternoon:

Gale force winds expected Thursday.  Heavy rains and flooding are also possible. 

We've upgraded our weather forecast system, so there may be some subtle, but important improvements in the forecast. 

Last Monday we spoke about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming that was forecast to shake up our weather pattern.  Based on analog analysis of past years, it was thought that it would lead to a strengthening North Atlantic Oscillation, leaving us in a continuing dry pattern.  It was also noted that the sudden warming could lead to a temporary cold spell.  Alas, the weather had other ideas. 

The North Atlantic Oscillation has not been as negative or as strong as forecast, and it has created an opportunity for us to transition to a much rainier and wetter pattern. This pattern will position a ridge of high pressure east of Greenland, allowing a trough to build over eastern Europe, tapping into some very cold air over Siberia. 

As we move into the second half of this week, our early "spring" weather will come to an end, and winds will become near gale, or even gale (> 62 km/h).  As noted in our Israel Winter Weather  Forum, the rainy pattern should last at least several days, if not into the last week of January.

There is a small chance of snow about 10 days from now; otherwise, snow should periodically fall on the Golan.

As an aside: those who deny that climate change is occurring because of the release of greenhouse gases do admit that the world is warming.  However, they claim that this is a good thing, suggesting that a warmer world will open up additional locations for agriculture, for example.  However, this minimizes the potential disruption to current farming practices, as well as opening the door for pests/fungi to establish themselves in otherwise temperate climates.  At least this is the story the Mosquito told me before I whacked my first January mosquito ever. It hasn't been fun catching flies, and I am still waiting for the tree outside our front to actually lose its leaves.  It and many of us are a bit confused -- and hoping that winter arrives this Wednesday night and Thursday.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Change Will Come)

 

Good afternoon:

People ask me if it will ever rain again.  When I say not yet, they look at me like they want to shoot the messenger. However, as explained here (https://www.phrases.org.uk/bulletin_board/3/messages/520.html), it's really not "fair" to blame the person who simply delivers the message.  Also, keep in mind that the weather has been really nice -- for playing tennis, going for a run, having a picnic in the park, etc.  

So, what's the problem?  The problem is that people really do blame me for the too nice weather.  Perhaps they see our forecasts, and when they "come true" they think it's because of the forecast instead of tomorrow's weather itself simply becoming today's weather. 

So, what is going on?  One problem is that the North Atlantic Oscillation is now negative (https://www.britannica.com/science/North-Atlantic-Oscillation), which implies that there is a strong ridge-low couplet over Greenland and the far eastern Atlantic ocean.  This leaves us on the warm side of the ridge. 

However, there is also a forecast for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event ( https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/sudden-stratospheric-warming).  The warming leads to changes in the circulation pattern (especially in the Atlantic ocean).  When it interacts with the NAO, there can also be far off ripples in the circulation pattern.  Moreover, it can lock in the NAO.  

As suggested on forecasts for the mid-month period, though, the position of the trough over the Atlantic may be placed further west than a typical NAO.  Additionally, analog analysis (comparing the circulation pattern now to those of past years) suggest that atmospheric ripples associated with the SSW could lead to unusually cold weather in the eastern Mediterranean, at least long enough to make winter felt.  

So, expect a drop off in temperatures in mid-month, accompanied by a period of rain, if not rain and snow. 

I'd like to add a few comments about the "situation." Someone sent me an article proclaiming that the "cure' for the Coronavirus is worse than disease itself (https://www.climatedepot.com/2020/12/21/follow-the-science-covid-lockdowns-kill-suicides-exceed-covid-deaths-drug-overdoses-spike-delayed-surgeries-delayed-cancer-heart-treatments-more-death/).  While it is correct to say that the lockdown has impacted social health, it is incorrect to blame the lockdown on hospital delays for other illnesses.  Rather, the delays are part of treatment plan for the illness (there are only so many doctors and beds to go around), just as there have been an increase in deaths from secondary illnesses exacerbated by the Coronavirus-19 illness.  Lastly, were we to continue "business as usual," would there be 85 million ill and almost 2 million dead, or would there more likely be 1 billion ill and 20 million dead (about half those of the Spanish Flu)?

It is valid to ask about indirect deaths due to the Coronavirus, but incorrect to compare the consequences to actual direct deaths, since the indirect deaths are a result of society's efforts to prevent an even greater calamity.  The article waves a flag, but doesn't let you think long enough and critically enough to see that it's really a smokescreen for radical thinking.

I need to end with one more comment:  there are those who are rightfully fearful about a new vaccine technology (mRNA vaccines), but this is the reason the vaccines were tested in stages (to ensure they work, but are also safe).  But, then there a group of people who say that since the vaccine is based on new technology that it shouldn't be used -- or at least wait to see how your friends fare).  (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different-vaccines/how-they-work.html#:~:text=mRNA%20vaccines%20contain%20material%20from,genetic%20material%20from%20the%20vaccine).  Basically, the technology works the same way a virus works, and hence therefore must be dangerous. 

However, this line of reasoning ignores two relevant facts that favor getting vaccinated as soon as possible: 1) the vaccine works like a virus to infect cells, but only to produce a harmless protein that mimics the virus, but is not the virus itself (giving our immune system time to prepare for an actual attemp by the virus to infect us);  2) the virus, which infects our cells the same way as the vaccine does, is actually the virus, and we know just how terrible this is (https://www.timesofisrael.com/875084-i-let-my-guard-down-and-got-covid-19-this-is-what-its-like/).

So, be careful and get vaccinated!

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Where's the Weather?)

Good Evening:

What happens when the weatherman has writer's block?  I think it's pretty obvious: the weather simply stops happening.  Indeed, some of you just might have noticed the absence of weather, and I suppose that I should apologize.

Some of you have also noticed just how mild the weather has been.  The tree outside our front yard still hasn't lost its leaves -- they're as green as ever.  

As quoted here (https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-global-november-temperatures-reached-record-high-while-europe-experienced-its-warmest), 

"Copernicus Climate Change Service scientists report that globally, November 2020 was the warmest November since records began. Europe experienced its warmest autumn on record. Meanwhile, the Arctic region and sub-Arctic Siberia continued to be significantly warmer than average and sea ice in the region saw its second lowest November extent." 

That's bad news for those who were hoping for a "snowy" winter in our part of the world.  The cold air that brings us our snow originates in Siberia, and if that cold air is missing, then our hoped for snow will also be missing. Or, to put it another way: there's only so much cold air to go around, and there's less of it as the world has warmed and continues to warm in response to changes in climate forcings (like "Greenhouse" gases). 

It's also not good news for agriculture in our area -- the type that relies on a certain number of cold winter hours to produce abundant fruit come spring and summer. 

Might we take bets on wether our tree ever loses its leaves?  And if not, what will become of it as there will be no new leaves come spring?

All in all, the next week + looks simply cool, but not too cool, with plenty of sunshine as a ridge of high pressure builds our way.  

On one other note: go out and get your Coronavirus vaccine.  I've heard the argument that the new vaccines rely on an even newer technology, which is true -- but that doesn't make them dangerous.  In fact, if you believe so, you should ask yourself: which is more dangerous: to get the virus or the vaccine (which is and acts as a mimic of the real thing)?

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Ups and Downs)

 Good Afternoon:

Some nice and warm late fall weather, followed by a return to winter weather next week.

A weak wave of low pressure passed through our area Tuesday night.  It managed to stick around a bit longer than expected, bringing with some beautiful cloud formations. 

For quite some time I've worried that I might be soon out of the weather business.  As previously mentioned, the forecast for this winter was for much below normal precipitation amounts.  Since precipitation (and even the possibility of snow) is all people really care about here, what would a weatherman (or person) do in such a scenario?  

Another problem has been the lack of data feeding into the global models, as there are far fewer airplane flights than before the pandemic.  This includes the suspension of our (Bet Degan) radiosonde because of budget problems.   Last week, the global forecast was consistently off -- until the rains and thunderstorms arrived Friday night and Shabbat.  It got so bad that my daughter asked my wife what the weather would be, as if I wasn't sitting right next to her. 

The good news is that the weather is refusing to cooperate with the seasonal forecast or even the monthly forecast from the CFS V2 (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euPrecMonInd1.gif).  In fact, some approaching thunderstorms brought so much rain the fish could be seen swimming with umbrellas.

True, the next few days should see increasingly warm and sunny weather as a short ridge of high pressure builds ahead of an approaching storm.   But, the nice weather should last only into Sunday of next week, before the arrival of a strong cold front.

The storm and its accompanying cold front should barrel into our area from the Northwest, intensifying as cold air descends from the north.  The rain, strong winds, and thunderstorms should last from about Monday into Wednesday or even Thursday.  While not a winter storm more normally associated with late December or January, the rain amounts from this storm should go a

long way towards casting further doubt on the seasonal forecast.

Barry Lynn

 

Weather It Is (Storms Should Arrive)

 Good Afternoon:

A storm moving southward from Siberia will push into our area tonight and tomorrow.  

The global ensemble indicates a near 100% chance of rain and thunderstorms, which appear on our high resolution as areas of heavy rain of 50 to 75 mm over a twelve hour period.  The main location for the heavier rains should be center southward.  Where storms overlap, precipitation amounts could exceed 100 mm.

The storm should peak tomorrow, Shabbat afternoon, but rain should continue into Sunday.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Weather Notes)

Good Afternoon:

Possible heavy rains and thunderstorms, especially Shabbat.

The global forecast, upon which we base our high resolution forecast, has been quite inconsistent this week.

One possible reason is that the global forecasts are predicting a change in the North Atlantic Oscillation  (NAO) as well as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), but in opposite directions. 

A negative implies that a trough of low pressure will build much to our west.  A negative AO implies that cold air will remain locked up to the north, at least north of North America.  That means that some of this cold air is available to us, as storms moving southward from the cold reaches of Siberia.

In the next few days, two systems will interact. One to our west and one dropping down from the north.  If the one from the north succeeds to drop down from the north, it will lead to heavy rain and thunderstorms on Shabbat.

In the meanwhile, the storm to our west will slide slightly eastward, bringing some showers and possible Thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow (Friday) morning.

The lightning occurring with this western storm can be seen on the attached video.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn