Weather It Is (The Little Storm That Couldn't; A Global Warming World)

The drought continues to deepen -- it really hasn't rained a substantial amount in 6 weeks. 

When we look at the GFS 10 day forecast or the GFS ensemble forecast, we see the possibility of rain.  However, there are always several members or more of this ensemble that indicate that the storm will either weaken or pass by to our north, and by the time the storm should have arrived, all the ensemble members agree that the storm will -- for the most part -- miss us again.

In fact,  this Friday evening and Shabbat one of these storms will impact our area, but the impact will be just a glancing blow.  One interesting fact is that there is still plenty of cold air in Europe, and the storm track is still fairly active. It looks, though, like it has retreated a bit to the north, and the retreat to the north has been (for our sake), about a month too early in the winter season. 

One predicted consequence of global warming is that storms will be less frequent, come later in the season, and depart earlier.  There is also an indication that storms -- when they do occur -- will be more ferocious -- heavier rain and wind.  This winter is -- quite possibly -- a glimpse into a world impacted by global warming.

As for Pesach, the active Jet stream will continue, but there will also be at least a few days of warmer weather before the next possible storm late next week.

Shabbat Shalom; have a good Pessach,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Was that too hot or too cold?)

Spring has sprung, or has it? 

We've had the warmest weather of the late winter and Friday's weather will feel downright hot.  Yet, one might be forgiven for feeling like we're headed for a roller coaster ride!

By Shabbat, it just won't feel like a Kansas summer day anymore, but more like the Middle East (particularly Israel), where our emotions can go up and down depending on the latest happenings (but, preferably up!).

We've been watching a developing winter storm for the past few days.  It is swinging through central Europe and it is headed our way.  The problem, so to speak, is that hard on its heels a faster moving pocket of energy that (in many of our ensemble forecasts) rips this late winter storm to shreds, at least in the middle atmosphere, causing our storm to lose its trough-like sharpness before blasting us with a winter chill.

There still are three ensemble members holding our for a more intense winter storm, and hence, there remains the possibility of light to moderate rain mixing with snow early next week. In any case, all the ensemble indicate that it's going to feel chilly, and our summer like weather will only be a memory, even as the week progresses into next.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Almost Perfect)

Good Afternoon:

The weather has been a bit cool, but overall it's been pretty sunny and it's no longer very windy.
The next few days will be neither here nor there, and there is a chance of light rain early next week. 

We're basically along the southern edge of a developing large trough of winter weather over Europe.  This winter trough should slowly, but inexorably push itself southward, as well as amplify.

As the trough amplifies, the winds will pick up out of the south next week and we are likely to see the hottest weather of the new year by mid-week.

But then, in a cruel twist of fate, the trough may just come crashing through, sweeping away the warm/hot weather (locusts, frogs, etc), bringing with it our first real rain in a month's time. In fact, this trough of cold weather may be just so cold, that it freezes those aspiring rain drops and turns them into snowflakes.  At the moment, this (snowy) scenario is about a 20% chance, but the overall pattern looks potentially wintery.  So, don't put away those winter clothes just yet!

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The Drought Settles In)

Tonight and tomorrow a storm system will advance across the Mediterranean while a cold winter trough drops southward.  Temperatures will rise ahead of the low pressure, but it will remain breezy (but not as windy as today) for the Jerusalem Marathon.  Temperatures will rise even more on Shabbat as the low nears, and will feel quite warm for early March. 

The low and the trough will phase together on Sunday.  If this were "winter," this would be the perfect set up for a winter storm.  Yet, the atmosphere is not acting like winter, but more like the weather in late March when storms approach our area, but seem to lack good lifting and a good moisture source.  Hence, the storm approaches, and then sweeps quickly eastward with perhaps most of its rain shield remaining to our north.

Hence, the dry period of the last two weeks will likely become a dry period of three weeks, even though the weather won't feel like spring-- which is a bit strange.  We'll hope that a rainy period can return by mid-March.

To those running: good luck in the Marathon and Shabbat Shalom to all,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Purim and Beyond)

Good Morning:

The weather looks pretty much now like it will look at the end of the week. Neither too warm nor too cool, with a few clouds here or there (depending on where you are).  In fact, the weather just might be perfect for the Jerusalem Marathon.

Yet, there are a few ensemble members that suggest that our sunny weather will be followed early next week by some rain, and there is even one (she, like a ship, perhaps?) who says it will be quite cold and snowy.  This isn't out of the question as the weather map shows extremely cold air over northern Europe and a series of low pressure areas moving across to the south that just might take a bite from this cold air.

We interviewed this ensemble member about her forecasts.  She said: "I know that my brothers and sisters (we're of the GFS family) are predicting pretty much springtime weather or springtime showers, but I'm different.  When they say up, I like to say down.  When they say sun, I like to say, well... I think it's going to snow and that winter will come roaring back." 

We were a little surprised to hear this, so we followed up.  "I've always been quite contrary," as if in explanation.  "In the summer time, for instance, I'll wear my fake fur coat even when its 35 degrees." When I looked at her strangely, she added: "Of course, I'll wear my shorts under the fake-fur."

If you'd like to see "her" for yourself, just go to the web site site and look under GEFS ensemble forecast (e.g 500 mb temperatures).  Of course, by the time you look Purim may be over, and she may be gone by the way of all small chances.  On the other hand, Purim miracles do happen, whether forecast or not.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Glancing Blow, and Then a Shift)

Good Morning:

A weak storm persists to cloudy the skies a bit, with light rain scattered here or there.  However, it's not enough clouds or rain to dampen the Purim Spirits.

The storm will pass today and then a rather nice and prolonged warm up will ensue.  The weather pattern seems to be shifting towards spring.  There a storm expected to approach us on Friday, but for the moment it fails to phase with the northern Jet-Stream energy that represents some of winters coldest air of the season.  Instead, the coldest air passes off to our east and our approaching storm just weakens such that we may not even notice its passage.

This is as good thing for those planning weddings and marathons at the end of the week!

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Don't Drink Too Much!)

Good Evening:

The ups and downs of the weather just may make you feel a bit Purim drunk.

Our beautiful weather will come to an end on Shabbat, as a storm system moves in from the west.  It's a cool, but not cold winter system that will bring  a general light rain to center and northern parts of the country. 

The skies should clear Sunday morning, and then temperatures will be on the upswing, and peak about mid-week.  In fact, the weather pattern looks a bit like a rollercoaster.

Hence, one might be forgiven for feeling a bit tipsy after Purim when temperatures then begin a dive towards (possibly) much colder levels towards the end of next week again, as another storm approaches.  This storm may carve out a deep trough extending into northern Europe, and may be able to tap much colder air than usual.  Will it be enough to whiten the ground?  Stay tuned.

Shabbat Shalom,