Weather It Is (The Winds Of Fall (Or, Is That War?))

Good evening:

The winds are about, and my wife was heard to comment that these are the winds of fall.  We hope that  fall transitions into winter without incident, but the winds of war are also blowing, and of course we're being threatened.

There was some very interesting research published by Dr. Amir Givati and Professor Daniel Rosenfeld (of the Israel Hydrological Service and The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, respectively).  They found that December through February changes in pressure related to the "Artic Oscillation" (AO) correlate very well with precipitation changes in the Middle East. Quite interestingly, positive manifestations of the AO correspond to decreases in rainfall over the northern part of Israel (and even stronger decreases to our north), but there is an increase in precipitation over the central areas).  The negative manifestations correspond to comparatively more rain over the northern areas. As Greenhouse gases have grown during the last few decades, the AO has been more positive than negative, and there has been  a downward trend in precipitation amounts over our north, and more rain in central/southern Israel.   This also leads to a more northerly flow -- meaning that winters can actually be cooler in our area as large parts of the rest of the world warm up (with higher Greenhouse gas concentrations).

So, how do we look seasonal prediction wise (from the Climate Forecast System model)?  We look average in temperature and precipitation for this upcoming winter. Perhaps, then, it is not ironic that the next two weeks look to be more of the same with little change.

Shana Tova,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Corduroy Summer)

Good afternoon:

The other day I was asked why I am wearing Corduroy pants in the summer time.  My answer was simple: it's not hot.  In fact, it hasn't been hot at all this summer.

The reason is that the circulation pattern has shifted from its normal summertime position.  Normally, we have low pressure situated just off to our east, with a northeasterly flow, turning to northerly, and then northwesterly as one transverses from north to south and then just west of our area. However, the typical low pressure area that is normally situated over the hot desert is far to our east. Instead, strong low pressure is located over the northern shore of the eastern Mediterranean.  The result is a steady,  moist, and relatively cool flow of air from the northwest.

Looking ahead a bit, this pressure pattern will strengthen late next week and there will actually be the possibility of showers.  The following week the pressure pattern will back off a bit and warmer air will flow westward, but not very much.

One might think that global warming is a thing of the past -- just something to talk about but not worry about.  Yet, those who are on the other side of these cool systems have been unusually warm (i.e, hot). Just ask the people in Portugal (where my parents just visited) or in the US southwest (where unusual dryness has been accompanied by more forest fires).

Elevated greenhouse gasses has led to changes in cloudiness (there has been generally been more rain and more extreme rain), and surface and atmospheric heating.  This has led to changes in circulation patterns.  As greenhouse gases continue to elevate, contrasts from one location to another will probably grow larger.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (That Nip!)

Weather It Is (Up and Down)

Good Afternoon:

The weather has been really nice, at least since Sunday (when temperatures were well up into the 90s).

Unfortunately, our good weather will be transitioning to something a bit more summer-like.  However, before we can get too uncomfortable, the temperatures will fall off a bit -- only to rise again.

We see warming temperatures at 500 mb, indicating that our summertime weather is slowly setting in.

By the way, Tuesday is "Shuk-Day" at Super Deal in Efrat.  They really do have good deals, and its a lot closer than the competition.

Otherwise, perhaps someone needs a larger (portable) kitchen closet.  It is in very good condition, stands alone, and has room for food items, an oven, more food items (or hats), chairs and brooms. Please call if you're interested (best price and it goes).

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Extreme Heat; Yet, a Musack (Garage) That Won't Leave You Hot Under the Collar)

Good Morning:

Southerly winds will bring extreme heat to most of the country today.  Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 30s in most places, and into the 40s down south and in the Dead Sea area.  These are dangerous levels.

Winds from the west will moderate the temperatures tomorrow, but not by much.  Early next week, temperatures will rise again, and even become extreme.

It will certainly be cooler in the shade, so stay out of the sun, and try to stay air conditioned if you can. One place you can be sure to be cooler and find a nice place to stay cool is the Muscack (Garage) of Gush Etzion.  I have to mention that I had a recent issue that was resolved most amicably.  The proprietor, Elad, deserves a bit "thank you" for his honesty and consideration. Of course, you can have your car serviced and head over to the English Bakery next door for something to eat and drink.  So honesty, consideration, and good food go a long way!

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Feeling a Bit Confused?)

The weather has been up and down -- quite dramatically. From light winds and warm temperatures to strong winds and relatively very cold temperatures.   Is it spring, summer, or even winter?

The next weather system should bring some mid-level moisture (light rain, perhaps) by mid-week and then a sharp warm up (or is that "hot" up) to extremely hot temperatures on Thursday.  Actually, the temperatures are forecast to dive the next day and then return to really hot levels this coming Sunday.

Are we headed into summer with just some detours along the way?  Actually, we see no indication yet that the weather pattern will settle down -- so better to just enjoy the ride.

Barry

Weather It Is (A Bit Wet and Windy)

Good Afternoon:

A late winter-like season storm will approach our area tonight and move through tomorrow.  Temperatures should drop substantially during the storm, which will bring in moisture off the sea.

The current rain amounts are between 5 and 10 mm from the coastal areas to the center, and should occur from late tonight into tomorrow morning.  The rain should be accompanied by lightning and thunder.

After the storm passes, temperatures will warm substantially, before taking a bit of a dive mid-next week.

Hag Shavuot Sameach,

Barry Lynn