The rain and cold will arrive late Monday.
Good Evening:
Rain will continue over the northern sections of the country as a storm develops off the coast. A reinforcing push of winter air (cold. but not that cold) will arrive Tuesday, and should bring a pretty heavy rain to the centre as well.
Looking ahead, there will be a chance of showers, but the highlight will be continued cool (or cold) winter weather (possibly to the end of next week).
Barry Lynn
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
Weather It Is (Sailing On -- Until the Wind Changes)
Good Evening:
The latest GFS ensemble forecast shows that we're headed for a return to winter. But, first, we'll have a couple more pleasant days before the storm.
The storm should approach from the west on Shabbat. Perhaps because the sea is still warm, this storm should be relatively cold at upper levels, but relatively warm at lower levels.
The temperature profiles indicate the possibility of wet snow Sunday night (at the highest elevations). Otherwise, rain will arrive late Shabbat or Motzei Shabbat, and continue on and off until Monday.
You have to keep in mind that any snowflakes that make it to the ground will probably regret having taken the plunge from their safe haven up above, unless they are fortunate to land on a car (cars tend to be a bit colder than the air temperature). In fact, they may all vanish before given the chance to melt quickly on the ground or find some respite on a colder surface like a car windshield.
The storm should pass, but the weather will remain winter cool. Beyond mid-next week, the weather forecast shows very little of value, other than the possibility (but not likelihood) of some colder winter yet -- but it might be comparatively warm as well.
Barry Lynn
The latest GFS ensemble forecast shows that we're headed for a return to winter. But, first, we'll have a couple more pleasant days before the storm.
The storm should approach from the west on Shabbat. Perhaps because the sea is still warm, this storm should be relatively cold at upper levels, but relatively warm at lower levels.
The temperature profiles indicate the possibility of wet snow Sunday night (at the highest elevations). Otherwise, rain will arrive late Shabbat or Motzei Shabbat, and continue on and off until Monday.
You have to keep in mind that any snowflakes that make it to the ground will probably regret having taken the plunge from their safe haven up above, unless they are fortunate to land on a car (cars tend to be a bit colder than the air temperature). In fact, they may all vanish before given the chance to melt quickly on the ground or find some respite on a colder surface like a car windshield.
The storm should pass, but the weather will remain winter cool. Beyond mid-next week, the weather forecast shows very little of value, other than the possibility (but not likelihood) of some colder winter yet -- but it might be comparatively warm as well.
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Weather It Is (Hanging On)
Good Afternoon:
Our late December "heat-wave" has arrived and will remain with us for a few more days. It's not really a heat wave; but 11 C does feel a bit warmer than 7 C.
The pleasant weather will turn wet and cold late Shabbat/Sunday as a storm arrives from the west. There is the possibility of wet snow with the rain, but this is just a possibility, and this storm will be more rain than snow, and not be particularly heavy.
Looking farther into our crystal forecast ball, we see the weather remaining cool for a few more days, before the fog of chaos veils our eyes. Yet, there is one brave forecast-soul who would like to plunge us back into winter during the second week of January. He's alone, and he's quite contrary to speak of snow, while the rest of his group (of 19) predict just about anything but.
Stay tuned,
Barry Lynn
Our late December "heat-wave" has arrived and will remain with us for a few more days. It's not really a heat wave; but 11 C does feel a bit warmer than 7 C.
The pleasant weather will turn wet and cold late Shabbat/Sunday as a storm arrives from the west. There is the possibility of wet snow with the rain, but this is just a possibility, and this storm will be more rain than snow, and not be particularly heavy.
Looking farther into our crystal forecast ball, we see the weather remaining cool for a few more days, before the fog of chaos veils our eyes. Yet, there is one brave forecast-soul who would like to plunge us back into winter during the second week of January. He's alone, and he's quite contrary to speak of snow, while the rest of his group (of 19) predict just about anything but.
Stay tuned,
Barry Lynn
Sunday, December 22, 2013
Weather It Is (A Tornado in Efrat)
Good Evening:
My daughter returned to the house shortly before 9 P.M on Monday December 9th.
Shortly thereafter, there was a large boom. In the morning, she wrote to say that the fence in the backyard was broken. Since, it is unlikely that a vandal came and broke the fence, this had to be weather related. Note, the missing fence and the tree (centre) snapped in the middle of the picture.
Small tornadoes can snap trees.
One might think that this was only a very strong downburst, but then why is the damage so localised?
Regarding our weather: we're headed up temperature wise, as I mentioned. The weather will change on the 27th, and rain should arrive on Shabbat or early next week. There is a 10% chance of wet snow with the next event, but (as noted), this storm is approaching from over the sea, so we don't expect a cold snow like we had last week.
Barry Lynn
My daughter returned to the house shortly before 9 P.M on Monday December 9th.
Shortly thereafter, there was a large boom. In the morning, she wrote to say that the fence in the backyard was broken. Since, it is unlikely that a vandal came and broke the fence, this had to be weather related. Note, the missing fence and the tree (centre) snapped in the middle of the picture.
Small tornadoes can snap trees.
One might think that this was only a very strong downburst, but then why is the damage so localised?
Regarding our weather: we're headed up temperature wise, as I mentioned. The weather will change on the 27th, and rain should arrive on Shabbat or early next week. There is a 10% chance of wet snow with the next event, but (as noted), this storm is approaching from over the sea, so we don't expect a cold snow like we had last week.
Barry Lynn
Weather It Is (A Tornado in Efrat?)
Good Evening:
My daughter returned to the house shortly before 9 P.M on Monday December 9th.
Shortly thereafter, there was a large boom. In the morning, she wrote to say that the fence in the backyard was broken. Since, it is unlikely that a vandal came and broke the fence, this had to be weather related. Note, the missing fence and the tree (centre) snapped in the middle of the picture.
Small tornadoes can snap trees.
One might think that this was only a very strong downburst, but then why is the damage so localised?
Regarding our weather: we're headed up temperature wise, as I mentioned. The weather will change on the 27th, and rain should arrive on Shabbat or early next week. There is a 10% chance of wet snow with the next event, but (as noted), this storm is approaching from over the sea, so we don't expect a cold snow like we had last week.
Barry Lynn
My daughter returned to the house shortly before 9 P.M on Monday December 9th.
Shortly thereafter, there was a large boom. In the morning, she wrote to say that the fence in the backyard was broken. Since, it is unlikely that a vandal came and broke the fence, this had to be weather related. Note, the missing fence and the tree (centre) snapped in the middle of the picture.
Small tornadoes can snap trees.
One might think that this was only a very strong downburst, but then why is the damage so localised?
Regarding our weather: we're headed up temperature wise, as I mentioned. The weather will change on the 27th, and rain should arrive on Shabbat or early next week. There is a 10% chance of wet snow with the next event, but (as noted), this storm is approaching from over the sea, so we don't expect a cold snow like we had last week.
Barry Lynn
Saturday, December 21, 2013
Weather It Is (Weather Changes; Please Understand)
Good evening:
Temperatures will be moderating during the next few days, and the mountains of snow will be reduced to small hills.
My mid-week, though, the weather will begin to change, with possibly a shower, some temperature up and downs, and then we should be headed down, as the weather turns wet. At this time, there are a wide range of forecast amounts, depending on the forecast strength of the storm. This storm will be arriving from the west, which means that the air will be moderating as it moves eastward -- so there is only a slight chance of wet snow.
It is hard to write a blog for mixed company. I need to women to understand that I can't always be right, while the men need to appreciate that forecasts can never be 100% accurate.
We all know that men need appreciation, and women need understanding. While it is possible for men to act with understanding (e.g, take out the garbage without being asked), it is very hard for men to express understanding. In fact, unless there is a problem to be solved, men would prefer to keep quiet.
The problem began right before the snow storm when our air conditioning unit broke, and temperatures began to fall both inside the house (upstairs) and out. I did my best to fix the problem: I called the repair man, but (unfortunately) they ran out of parts to change and the upstairs remained in the deep freeze.
This is especially a problem for my wife because she's from Israel and Israelis don't sleep with tucked in sheets. In contrast, holding fast to my traditions, I always sleep tucked in so I was able to generate bubbles of heat under the covers.
After a week plus of cold winter like temperatures, my wife had finally had enough, and I got an ear full. Trying to be on my best behaviour, I said things like: "yes, it's really cold." "Yes, it is really aggravating" (it sounds better in Hebrew).
This went on for about ten minutes, when my wife looked at me, and politely suggested that I wasn't being serious.
This goes to show that those lying in comfort (even in a cold room) should not speak, or perhaps men shouldn't speak unless they really have something to say.
Barry Lynn
Temperatures will be moderating during the next few days, and the mountains of snow will be reduced to small hills.
My mid-week, though, the weather will begin to change, with possibly a shower, some temperature up and downs, and then we should be headed down, as the weather turns wet. At this time, there are a wide range of forecast amounts, depending on the forecast strength of the storm. This storm will be arriving from the west, which means that the air will be moderating as it moves eastward -- so there is only a slight chance of wet snow.
It is hard to write a blog for mixed company. I need to women to understand that I can't always be right, while the men need to appreciate that forecasts can never be 100% accurate.
We all know that men need appreciation, and women need understanding. While it is possible for men to act with understanding (e.g, take out the garbage without being asked), it is very hard for men to express understanding. In fact, unless there is a problem to be solved, men would prefer to keep quiet.
The problem began right before the snow storm when our air conditioning unit broke, and temperatures began to fall both inside the house (upstairs) and out. I did my best to fix the problem: I called the repair man, but (unfortunately) they ran out of parts to change and the upstairs remained in the deep freeze.
This is especially a problem for my wife because she's from Israel and Israelis don't sleep with tucked in sheets. In contrast, holding fast to my traditions, I always sleep tucked in so I was able to generate bubbles of heat under the covers.
After a week plus of cold winter like temperatures, my wife had finally had enough, and I got an ear full. Trying to be on my best behaviour, I said things like: "yes, it's really cold." "Yes, it is really aggravating" (it sounds better in Hebrew).
This went on for about ten minutes, when my wife looked at me, and politely suggested that I wasn't being serious.
This goes to show that those lying in comfort (even in a cold room) should not speak, or perhaps men shouldn't speak unless they really have something to say.
Barry Lynn
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Weather It Is (Frozen and Icy Roads)
Good Evening:
Subject: icy roads.
The temperatures have warmed a bit, but there is still plenty of snow in the higher elevations.
The snow radiates heat quite well, cooling, which then cools the overlying air.
Tonight we're predicting a couple of degrees above freezing. So, why are roads freezing and why will there be wet patches that are really ice when we wake in the morning?
The reason is two fold: first, the surface cools more than the air temperature, and second, the dew point (or air humidity) is very low. The dew point is the atmospheric temperature (varying according to pressure and humidity) below which water droplets begin to condense and dew can form. For us, it means that water from the roads will evaporate, and when they do, they will use energy and cool the surface. Eventually, enough water molecules (yes, it is the combined efforts of many) evaporate that any standing water freezes.
I don't expect this too happen too early in the evening, but sometime in the dark of night, when most of us are already tucked in bed, icy patches will form, and the roads in these areas will become extremely dangerous to drive on, or even walk.
Now, here's the worst of it all: today was a bit warmer during the day than yesterday, so there is a lot of water on the roads. Moreover, the sun is late to rise, so the ice will be late to melt. Perhaps, those in high places we should consider to take the day off the already short day of school?
Looking ahead, temperatures will hold steady for a few days and then head sharply upwards mid-next week, before falling off. There is a 40% chance of rain to end the new year, with only a very small chance of any frozen precipitation.
Barry Lynn
Subject: icy roads.
The temperatures have warmed a bit, but there is still plenty of snow in the higher elevations.
The snow radiates heat quite well, cooling, which then cools the overlying air.
Tonight we're predicting a couple of degrees above freezing. So, why are roads freezing and why will there be wet patches that are really ice when we wake in the morning?
The reason is two fold: first, the surface cools more than the air temperature, and second, the dew point (or air humidity) is very low. The dew point is the atmospheric temperature (varying according to pressure and humidity) below which water droplets begin to condense and dew can form. For us, it means that water from the roads will evaporate, and when they do, they will use energy and cool the surface. Eventually, enough water molecules (yes, it is the combined efforts of many) evaporate that any standing water freezes.
I don't expect this too happen too early in the evening, but sometime in the dark of night, when most of us are already tucked in bed, icy patches will form, and the roads in these areas will become extremely dangerous to drive on, or even walk.
Now, here's the worst of it all: today was a bit warmer during the day than yesterday, so there is a lot of water on the roads. Moreover, the sun is late to rise, so the ice will be late to melt. Perhaps, those in high places we should consider to take the day off the already short day of school?
Looking ahead, temperatures will hold steady for a few days and then head sharply upwards mid-next week, before falling off. There is a 40% chance of rain to end the new year, with only a very small chance of any frozen precipitation.
Barry Lynn
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