Good Afternoon:
There is actually a storm "out there" today, this Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures are falling towards chilly levels, and they won't recover until Shabbat afternoon. However, they will begin a steep climb into late next week, which will have many folks saying: "there ain't no more winter here." In a sense, they would be correct. As noted, the break-up of the polar vortex has broken our string of rainy weeks and chilly weather, and we've been for the most part under the influence of high pressures ridges, which have and will bring warm southerly breezes.
However, they say the bigger the wave the bigger they break. While technically true, we're referring to winter wave patterns rather than summer wave patterns (when the only thing breaking are waves on the beach). The timing for this "breaking" atmospheric wave should be the end of next week and/or early the following week. It's not really a breaking wave, but rather the possible arrival of a deep and cold trough of air following the "ridge" in the wave pattern that could turn us back towards winter, at least for a few days. In a sense, the stronger the ridge, the stronger the trough on its backside.
Ever since the break-up of the polar vortex, things just haven't been the same for me. Besides the loss of popularity and interest in the weather (let alone myself), strange things have been happening (at least to me). It started out not so innocently enough with a missing (green) sweatshirt. This is a sweatshirt I never take off outside of the house, yet it is not to be found anywhere at all. At the same time, an old (for cleaning) skirt of my wife's disappeared. These events were followed by numerous pieces of silverware dropping from plates, bowls, etc, culminating the other night in the screams of a glass cup shattering on the floor. Today a wind-blown Kippa went sailing from head only to land in the only puddle of water around (and leftover cleaning water at that). I can understand the other things happening, but the last shouldn't happen to me. It got so bad I sent my (brave) daughter to the basement to see if there was some malicious person conducting some electromagnetic wave bending experiments. Come to think of it, I never heard back from her.
And then there's the question of whether to take an antibiotic for a sinus infection. From what my doctor tell's me: "real men don't take antibiotics." (If you're a feminist, then real women don't take them either). Rather than the question being: how long do you wait, you begin to wonder if you've got what it takes to save the world from the over-prescription of antibiotics. If you don't, you might feel better, but you'll definitely feel guilty. Everyone you see seems to say: "if you just waited another miserable day you would have been better on your own."
We all know that the over-prescription of antibiotics has led to an increase in resistance to antibiotics, if not a complete insensitivity to them among our most dangerous "superbugs." However, there is another reason that we should treat the bacteria within us (or micro-biome) with greater respect. It turns out that our diet (if not the antibiotics we take) affects the microbiome composition in our small intestine (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/health/microbiome-brain-behavior-dementia.html?). These bacteria don't just help us digest last night's "veggie burger," they are able to send signals through the nerve endings of our intestines all the way to our brains. These signals have been shown to influence brain development, and even the development of brain disease, perhaps even Alzheimer's, depending on your diet.
So, when you ask yourself if you're a "real" man (or women), don't forget to ask yourself who's really calling the shots. Or, when they say you "feel it in your gut," we should consider taking this literally.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Thursday, January 24, 2019
Weather It Is (Quick Changes)
Good Evening:
There are quick changes in store for us. However, when all is said and done it may simply be more "sound" than fury. Temperatures several hundred meters above our mountain tops are falling into tonight, and then rising into Shabbat, and then falling into Monday, and then rising into Wednesday, and then falling into Friday. If you're not feeling a bit of vertigo, then I am.
Both storms next week may bring periods of rain, but then again, they may not.
Why the uncertainty? The break up of the polar vortex into spinning vortices has led to an injection of artic air energy into our mid-latitude atmospheric system, creating difficulties for global forecast models as they peer into the future.
People keep telling my wife that they heard it is going to snow. I am not really sure why they are saying this, but the same thing happened last time it snowed -- someone, somewhere, is starting rumours and like feathers on the wind they get blown here and there.
While some folks were spreading rumours, I was sitting "Shiva" for a lost sister. She was actually lost to me years ago, as she suffered some calamity while growing in my mother's womb. There was no obvious reason why this happened or even what happened, but the result was that I was born into the world as a "make-up" baby. So, in someway I owe my life to her lack of life -- she was alive, but she didn't have the opportunity to live.
Quite frankly, I found it strange to sit shiva for someone I really didn't know. Yet, the people who visited (and I thank them for doing so) were quite understanding and encouraging. I went from feeling that I was committing "Shiva Fraud" to doing something meaningful for both my second sister and myself, and hopefully my parents as well.
I have to say that when I experience the kindness of my fellow citizens I really feel better about being here, and perhaps I can have more patience for those who seem to live in their own world -- whether they are cutting in front at the border control point or cutting you off on the road. My guess is that the number of good folks far out weight the bad ones, but the acts of kindness often occur far from the public eye.
Here's hoping for better news and as someone said: my sister Nancy has been saved from further suffering. It's true, but I wish that it would never have been.
But, then who would write this column?
Barry Lynn
There are quick changes in store for us. However, when all is said and done it may simply be more "sound" than fury. Temperatures several hundred meters above our mountain tops are falling into tonight, and then rising into Shabbat, and then falling into Monday, and then rising into Wednesday, and then falling into Friday. If you're not feeling a bit of vertigo, then I am.
Both storms next week may bring periods of rain, but then again, they may not.
Why the uncertainty? The break up of the polar vortex into spinning vortices has led to an injection of artic air energy into our mid-latitude atmospheric system, creating difficulties for global forecast models as they peer into the future.
People keep telling my wife that they heard it is going to snow. I am not really sure why they are saying this, but the same thing happened last time it snowed -- someone, somewhere, is starting rumours and like feathers on the wind they get blown here and there.
While some folks were spreading rumours, I was sitting "Shiva" for a lost sister. She was actually lost to me years ago, as she suffered some calamity while growing in my mother's womb. There was no obvious reason why this happened or even what happened, but the result was that I was born into the world as a "make-up" baby. So, in someway I owe my life to her lack of life -- she was alive, but she didn't have the opportunity to live.
Quite frankly, I found it strange to sit shiva for someone I really didn't know. Yet, the people who visited (and I thank them for doing so) were quite understanding and encouraging. I went from feeling that I was committing "Shiva Fraud" to doing something meaningful for both my second sister and myself, and hopefully my parents as well.
I have to say that when I experience the kindness of my fellow citizens I really feel better about being here, and perhaps I can have more patience for those who seem to live in their own world -- whether they are cutting in front at the border control point or cutting you off on the road. My guess is that the number of good folks far out weight the bad ones, but the acts of kindness often occur far from the public eye.
Here's hoping for better news and as someone said: my sister Nancy has been saved from further suffering. It's true, but I wish that it would never have been.
But, then who would write this column?
Barry Lynn
Thursday, January 17, 2019
Weather It Is (What's Ahead?)
Good Afternoon:
In a season of frequent rains and storms, last night's storm was a storm to remember. If not the wind (Severe Gale), then the rain (flooding), if not the rain then the thunder and hail, and if not the rain and hail, then it was the brightness of the snow as lightning lit up the sky (in thunder snow). For those who are wondering, there was a light covering in Jerusalem to anywhere from 8 to 15+ cm in Gush Etzion.
It was a week of nail-biting temperatures, as the models first indicated that the coldest air of the decade would freeze our toes off, but in the end we were left with the question: would it snow? Both Jerusalemites and Gush-Etzion-ites can answer: yes it did.
Almost as if to say: "I'm worn out," the temperatures will climb wearily from the low single digits to the middle single digits over a week's of time. There will be -- actually -- an absence of weather, and your weather man (or women) can take a well needed break.
The weather may not really be tired, but the polar vortex is splitting, which cause ripple effects in our winter wave pattern that has brought all these storms (and a rainy winter, so far).
Looking at the long range forecast, there is the potential for a return to colder weather, but perhaps not until the week after next. This will seem like a long time for those who have gotten used to winter like winters past.
Barry Lynn
P.S. I've uploaded some pictures before (with dust in the clouds) and during the storm. Here's a link to our snow (nighttime) video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yXY2wt54Lc
In a season of frequent rains and storms, last night's storm was a storm to remember. If not the wind (Severe Gale), then the rain (flooding), if not the rain then the thunder and hail, and if not the rain and hail, then it was the brightness of the snow as lightning lit up the sky (in thunder snow). For those who are wondering, there was a light covering in Jerusalem to anywhere from 8 to 15+ cm in Gush Etzion.
It was a week of nail-biting temperatures, as the models first indicated that the coldest air of the decade would freeze our toes off, but in the end we were left with the question: would it snow? Both Jerusalemites and Gush-Etzion-ites can answer: yes it did.
Almost as if to say: "I'm worn out," the temperatures will climb wearily from the low single digits to the middle single digits over a week's of time. There will be -- actually -- an absence of weather, and your weather man (or women) can take a well needed break.
The weather may not really be tired, but the polar vortex is splitting, which cause ripple effects in our winter wave pattern that has brought all these storms (and a rainy winter, so far).
Looking at the long range forecast, there is the potential for a return to colder weather, but perhaps not until the week after next. This will seem like a long time for those who have gotten used to winter like winters past.
Barry Lynn
P.S. I've uploaded some pictures before (with dust in the clouds) and during the storm. Here's a link to our snow (nighttime) video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yXY2wt54Lc
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Weather It Is (Winter Storm Warning)
Good Evening:
Our update based on the 6 UTC GFS showed snow in Gush Etzion extending from Hebron to Efrat, while the latest update using GFS 12 UTC extends a light accumulation into Jerusalem.
Forecast amounts are also larger in Gush Etzion, with between 15 to 20 cm forecast.
The totals will depend on the intensity of the cluster of thunderstorms as they move eastward during the next few hours (see below).
Forecast snow amounts included, as well as snap-shot from the Israeli Total Lightning Network (ITLN). The green shading is a depiction of radar reflectivity based on lightning intensity ("PulseRad").
Our update based on the 6 UTC GFS showed snow in Gush Etzion extending from Hebron to Efrat, while the latest update using GFS 12 UTC extends a light accumulation into Jerusalem.
Forecast amounts are also larger in Gush Etzion, with between 15 to 20 cm forecast.
The totals will depend on the intensity of the cluster of thunderstorms as they move eastward during the next few hours (see below).
Forecast snow amounts included, as well as snap-shot from the Israeli Total Lightning Network (ITLN). The green shading is a depiction of radar reflectivity based on lightning intensity ("PulseRad").
Weather It Is (Storm Update)
Good Morning:
There have been some small changes to the forecast.
Keep in mind that the severe winds combined with precipitation, including snow, should lower visibility, perhaps creating "white-out" conditions as the evening progresses.
However, because the lowest level cold air is moving in more from the west than north, the surface temperatures will be hard pressed to reach freezing. Snow will mostly melt in Jerusalem. The percentage chances for snow are based on our ensemble forecast.
Between 3 this afternoon and 5 this afternoon rain should arrive in Jerusalem and then mix with graupel (ice) and a bit of snow as the sky darkens. Temperatures will drop by several degrees from about 8 or 9 degrees Celcius to about 2 or 3 degrees depending on elevation (750 m to 850 m, respectively). Rain, graupel, and some snow should continue until about 8 P.M, when temperatures are forecast to turn colder. The chance of snow is 30%. From 8 until 11 P.M, there are indications that a heavier downburst of precipitation combined with evaporative cooling of the surface layer will lead to the formation of an isothermal layer. During this time, the mixture should become predominately snow and accumulate on colder surfaces (like cars and/or sidewalks). However, if the snow briefly sticks it should quickly melt. The chance of snow is 60%. The precipitation should taper to light rain (or a rain/snow mixture) towards midnight.
In Gush Etzion, temperatures should be a degree or two colder, and there is a greater likelihood that snow will accumulate. The chance of snow between 5 PM and 8 PM, is 60 to 70%. The chance of snow between 8 and 11 P.M is 100%. However, the accumulation will be very elevation dependent; the forecast shows the snow melting in lower areas like Efrat, while accumulating in surrounding areas several centimeters. Of course, half to 1 degree variation in temperatures will affect the accumulation, and this is within the range of model error.
Otherwise...
Gale force winds will become a "Severe Gale" late this evening and night, with winds exceeding 41 knots both along the central to southern coasts and inland to the central mountains (75 to 88 km/h). There is a chance that winds will exceed 48 knots, approaching 100 km/h (especially along the coastal areas and in the mountainous areas).
Our ensemble shows that the heaviest precipitation should fall in the central mountains, including Jerusalem from 17 IST until 23 IST, when temperatures in the lower, middle, and upper atmosphere should be at their coldest. The heavy precipitation should be accompanied by frequent lightning and hail and smaller ice.
Be well, and stay safe.
Barry Lynn
There have been some small changes to the forecast.
Keep in mind that the severe winds combined with precipitation, including snow, should lower visibility, perhaps creating "white-out" conditions as the evening progresses.
However, because the lowest level cold air is moving in more from the west than north, the surface temperatures will be hard pressed to reach freezing. Snow will mostly melt in Jerusalem. The percentage chances for snow are based on our ensemble forecast.
Between 3 this afternoon and 5 this afternoon rain should arrive in Jerusalem and then mix with graupel (ice) and a bit of snow as the sky darkens. Temperatures will drop by several degrees from about 8 or 9 degrees Celcius to about 2 or 3 degrees depending on elevation (750 m to 850 m, respectively). Rain, graupel, and some snow should continue until about 8 P.M, when temperatures are forecast to turn colder. The chance of snow is 30%. From 8 until 11 P.M, there are indications that a heavier downburst of precipitation combined with evaporative cooling of the surface layer will lead to the formation of an isothermal layer. During this time, the mixture should become predominately snow and accumulate on colder surfaces (like cars and/or sidewalks). However, if the snow briefly sticks it should quickly melt. The chance of snow is 60%. The precipitation should taper to light rain (or a rain/snow mixture) towards midnight.
In Gush Etzion, temperatures should be a degree or two colder, and there is a greater likelihood that snow will accumulate. The chance of snow between 5 PM and 8 PM, is 60 to 70%. The chance of snow between 8 and 11 P.M is 100%. However, the accumulation will be very elevation dependent; the forecast shows the snow melting in lower areas like Efrat, while accumulating in surrounding areas several centimeters. Of course, half to 1 degree variation in temperatures will affect the accumulation, and this is within the range of model error.
Otherwise...
Gale force winds will become a "Severe Gale" late this evening and night, with winds exceeding 41 knots both along the central to southern coasts and inland to the central mountains (75 to 88 km/h). There is a chance that winds will exceed 48 knots, approaching 100 km/h (especially along the coastal areas and in the mountainous areas).
Our ensemble shows that the heaviest precipitation should fall in the central mountains, including Jerusalem from 17 IST until 23 IST, when temperatures in the lower, middle, and upper atmosphere should be at their coldest. The heavy precipitation should be accompanied by frequent lightning and hail and smaller ice.
Be well, and stay safe.
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Weather It Is (Evening Update)
Good Evening:
The forecast arrival of our severe winter storm is unchanged.
Gale force winds will become a "Severe Gale" late tomorrow evening and night, with winds exceeding 41 knots both along the central to southern coasts and inland to the central mountains (75 to 88 km/h). There is a chance that winds will exceed 48 knots, approaching 100 km/h (especially along the coastal areas and in the mountainous areas).
Our ensemble shows that the heaviest precipitation should fall in the central mountains, including Jerusalem from 17 IST until 23 IST, when temperatures in the lower, middle, and upper atmosphere should be at their coldest. The heavy precipitation should be accompanied by frequent lightning and hail and smaller ice.
Our deterministic highest resolution WRF forecast indicates that snow should arrive in Jerusalem and Gush Etzion after 1700 IST, but accumulate only in Gush Etzion 5 to 15 cm, depending on elevation.
The atmospheric temperatures are on average cold enough for snow at lower, middle, and upper levels for the highest mountainous areas, but surface temperatures remain too warm in Jerusalem for snow accumulation. Checking our ensemble forecast, we don't see enough variability in temperatures to consider that snow will accumulate were our coldest forecasts to verify.
Still, where there's snow in the air, there's hope that a heavy burst will whiten the ground.
Have a good night -- updates planned for tomorrow morning.
Barry Lynn
The forecast arrival of our severe winter storm is unchanged.
Gale force winds will become a "Severe Gale" late tomorrow evening and night, with winds exceeding 41 knots both along the central to southern coasts and inland to the central mountains (75 to 88 km/h). There is a chance that winds will exceed 48 knots, approaching 100 km/h (especially along the coastal areas and in the mountainous areas).
Our ensemble shows that the heaviest precipitation should fall in the central mountains, including Jerusalem from 17 IST until 23 IST, when temperatures in the lower, middle, and upper atmosphere should be at their coldest. The heavy precipitation should be accompanied by frequent lightning and hail and smaller ice.
Our deterministic highest resolution WRF forecast indicates that snow should arrive in Jerusalem and Gush Etzion after 1700 IST, but accumulate only in Gush Etzion 5 to 15 cm, depending on elevation.
The atmospheric temperatures are on average cold enough for snow at lower, middle, and upper levels for the highest mountainous areas, but surface temperatures remain too warm in Jerusalem for snow accumulation. Checking our ensemble forecast, we don't see enough variability in temperatures to consider that snow will accumulate were our coldest forecasts to verify.
Still, where there's snow in the air, there's hope that a heavy burst will whiten the ground.
Have a good night -- updates planned for tomorrow morning.
Barry Lynn
Weather It Is (A Storm Arrives)
Good Afternoon:
My daughter had one simple observation: it's too warm to snow. My wife called downstairs -- she thought it was suppose to snow today, Tuesday.
If my immediate family is confused, then I can well imagine the confusion among readers of this blog.
Moreover, this blog maybe over taken some news related to colder temperatures recently forecast.
Here's the summary:
1) Gale Warning for coastal and mountain areas.
2) Flood Risk in mountain/valley and northern areas.
3) Winter Storm Warning for the Golan Wednesday and Wednesday Night.
4) Winter Storm Warning for Gush Etzion for late Wednesday and Night, for 5 to 10 cm of snow.
5) Winter Storm Watch for Jerusalem.
I received an interesting explanation for why the lower atmosphere is not as cold as originally forecast. Simply put, the position of high and low pressure systems over Europe are somewhat displaced from their previous forecast position, shunting off to the east some of our previously mentioned extreme cold.
Nevertheless, we're not out of the woods yet. Currently, our forecast shows 5 to 10 cm of snow for Gush Etzion, with mixed snow, ice, and rain in Jerusalem. The strongest precipitation should fall in Jerusalem in the late afternoon and evening, and in Gush Etzion in the evening hours as the coldest air arrives both aloft and in the lower atmosphere.
Snow and ice, rather than just ice and rain should arrive in the evening hours, and continue past midnight. Forecast temperatures are a couple of degrees above freezing in Jerusalem, and a degree colder in Gush Etzion (depending on elevation). Hence, the snow is more likely to accumulate in Gush Etzion in the very late afternoon and evening (where 5 to 10 cm is forecast) compared to Jerusalem where only a coating may occur early in the evening (but melt very quickly).
The precipitation should last until morning, and will probably turn back to rain or a very wet snow in Gush Etzion by morning.
Based on an examination of global ensemble forecasts, the range of possible error suggests that there is a 20% chance of several centimetres of snow in Jerusalem. Currently, though, our highest resolution forecast based on the GFS newest version does not show an accumulation of snow in
Jerusalem. This could change with the next update, as the synoptic conditions are more favorable for snow in Jerusalem.
Elsewhere, a light coating of snow is forecast in the higher mountains surrounding Sefad. The lower Golan is forecast to have 10 to 15 cm, while the upper Golan should have up to half a meter.
Barry Lynn
My daughter had one simple observation: it's too warm to snow. My wife called downstairs -- she thought it was suppose to snow today, Tuesday.
If my immediate family is confused, then I can well imagine the confusion among readers of this blog.
Moreover, this blog maybe over taken some news related to colder temperatures recently forecast.
Here's the summary:
1) Gale Warning for coastal and mountain areas.
2) Flood Risk in mountain/valley and northern areas.
3) Winter Storm Warning for the Golan Wednesday and Wednesday Night.
4) Winter Storm Warning for Gush Etzion for late Wednesday and Night, for 5 to 10 cm of snow.
5) Winter Storm Watch for Jerusalem.
I received an interesting explanation for why the lower atmosphere is not as cold as originally forecast. Simply put, the position of high and low pressure systems over Europe are somewhat displaced from their previous forecast position, shunting off to the east some of our previously mentioned extreme cold.
Nevertheless, we're not out of the woods yet. Currently, our forecast shows 5 to 10 cm of snow for Gush Etzion, with mixed snow, ice, and rain in Jerusalem. The strongest precipitation should fall in Jerusalem in the late afternoon and evening, and in Gush Etzion in the evening hours as the coldest air arrives both aloft and in the lower atmosphere.
Snow and ice, rather than just ice and rain should arrive in the evening hours, and continue past midnight. Forecast temperatures are a couple of degrees above freezing in Jerusalem, and a degree colder in Gush Etzion (depending on elevation). Hence, the snow is more likely to accumulate in Gush Etzion in the very late afternoon and evening (where 5 to 10 cm is forecast) compared to Jerusalem where only a coating may occur early in the evening (but melt very quickly).
The precipitation should last until morning, and will probably turn back to rain or a very wet snow in Gush Etzion by morning.
Based on an examination of global ensemble forecasts, the range of possible error suggests that there is a 20% chance of several centimetres of snow in Jerusalem. Currently, though, our highest resolution forecast based on the GFS newest version does not show an accumulation of snow in
Jerusalem. This could change with the next update, as the synoptic conditions are more favorable for snow in Jerusalem.
Elsewhere, a light coating of snow is forecast in the higher mountains surrounding Sefad. The lower Golan is forecast to have 10 to 15 cm, while the upper Golan should have up to half a meter.
Barry Lynn
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