Weather It Is (One More Cold Spell)

 Good Afternoon:

An unusually cold weather system will move into our area over the next couple of days.  Yet,while cold, moisture with this weather system is somewhat limited, so we should expect just a period of light rain on Shabbat with the passing low.

The low pressure trough will move slowly away as the days pass into mid-week,  Winds become more southwesterly and some upper level moisture may even trigger some thundershowers.

The temperatures look to be on an upswing until next Shabbat.  After that, no real cold weather is in sight, but the global forecast remains uncertain: temperatures just may continue into more summerlike temperatures, or revert back to a more mild spring.  

The mild spring like temperatures are the ones where people stop me to tell me what a good job I am doing this spring with the weather: a strong sun, with temperatures warm enough to be comfortable, but not warm enough to break a sweat.  

It's been a while since I last wrote a blog.  True, the weather didn't stop, but I've been unusually busy.  I had to spend a couple weeks in the US helping out at the old homestead, and then Passover arrived.  Quite frankly, we had a terrible time identifying and finding all the unleavened products in our home ("Chametz"), and eventually gave up and just sold the house for the holiday. Fortunately, the contract was cancelled shortly after the holiday ended, and we were able to once again inhabit the premises. 

In our world of constant news, constant opinion, and even constant opinion pretending to be news, it can be difficult to know the difference between truth and falsehood.

During the last year, there's been both intentional and unintentional statements that turned out to be false.

1) The Coronavirus first wave will pass -- like all waves -- and that will be its end.  It wasn't (there are at least 4 distinct waves). 

2) The Coronavirus will end this (last summer).  It didn't.

3) By late September, the Coronavirus will be a past memory.  It is still quite in our memory.

4) Since flu vaccinations do not protect more than 50% of the population that receives them, the Coronavirus will not be any better.  The efficacy rate for the Coronavirus vaccine is above 90%.

5) The virus can mutate to protect itself from the vaccine.  In fact, the virus can mutate, but only incidentally -- and such mutations might render the vaccine less effective.  More importantly, ff a person was vaccinated, the virus was killed by the immune system, it is very unlikely to spread a dangerous mutation.

6) Young and healthy people are not affected by the Coronavirus.  In fact, while younger people are much less likely to die from the disease, a noticeable proportion have continuing long term symptoms. 

7) Women  of childbearing years should not get the vaccine.  Except that new coronavirus variants were especially dangerous, if not deadly to pregnant women.

8) Taking Zinc and other "antiviral" medicines will stave off the Coronavirus.  While "strengthening" the immune system through exercise, diet, etc, is a good idea, the novelty of the coronavirus means that the immune system is not prepared to fight the virus until (in too many) it has the upperhand and causes serious illness. 

On another subject. 

1) The unusually cold and snowy February in the United States means that global warming is a falsehood.  In fact, cold air intrusions far south of the poles appear to have become more frequent as the world warms, and the arctic warms even more.  The added energy to the arctic circulation has destabilized the polar vortex, making periods of unusually cold weather not a thing of the past. On average, though, the world is warmer than it was.

8) The Texas blackouts were caused by the use of renewable energy sources.  In fact, the main cause of the Texas blackouts was poor infrastructure maintenance and the fact that Texas is no longer part of the National grid. Renewables, actually, make up only a small part of the power supply in Texas.

9) The United States should re-enter the Iran nuclear deal says a 100 or so ex Israeli generals, security officials.  But what if 20 times that say we shouldn't?  They do.

So, where do these false or even silly ideas come from?  They usually come people who have a more radical political agenda or strong belief that they are being lied to for ulterior and nefarious motives.  There are also people who seek publicity and followers simply by being contrary.  

On the other hand, there is a lack of trust in news sources, which creates fertile ground for the conspiracists.  To limit the future damaging impact of conspiracists, newspaper and other news sources need to stop substituting opinion for news, and edit out those opinions based on made up facts.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Three Flour Challah)

Good Morning:

My wife and I share the kitchen.

When we moved to our new home,  my wife was very insistent that we have both a meat and dairy sink.  How else were we to be sure to follow the Torah commandment not to mix milk and meat.  In fact, she even designed an L-shaped kitchen such that the sinks are not even part of the same countertop.

Yet, it soon became very clear to me that the real purpose of the separation was to make sure that the two of us would never meet at the same (kitchen) place, and it turns out even at the same time (I'm the morning cooker, and she is the afternoon cooker, when it comes to preparing for Shabbat).

This is hard for me to accept, but I see the same behavior from our daughters, too.  So, I must take full responsibility for this aversion to my presence in the kitchen. Apparently,  nothing is more "annoying" than having to share the kitchen with me, or if you prefer: "what are you doing here, now?"

Yet, I have to say,  I just may not deserve such opprobrium.  Okay, maybe I do, but as in life, it's sometimes better to focus on where you going rather than the mess along the way.

With the advice of a friend, I've been trying to perfect my Shabbat Challah recipe.  In fact, chemistry was one of my favorite subjects.  How much water to titrate (add) into the solid (flours) to turn it into a liquid (pliable dough)?  How much sucrose or sugar to sweeten it?

The "problem" is that much is a matter of taste, rather than how many moles (or Tablespoons) of oil one adds so that the bread is moist, but not too moist to work with.

To arrive at my perfect Challah has taken years of finessing, and much feedback from the philosopher-scientist among the kids. By perfect here, I mean more perfect than before, which as you know is a very precise definition of perfection.  I even had a little help from my friend. But, it was my wife who pointed out that it's honey that can give bread a dry texture, which runs counter to the advice I found on the internet. So, I have now left it out of this later challah iteration.

The other problem in baking Challah is size.  Challah is best eaten fresh, and how many times does one want to make "French-Toast" with its leftovers.  Hence, the recipe I provide below is for a family that likes Challah for Friday night dinner, and individual portions or rolls for Shabbat day.

It's a recipe for three-flour Challah, white, whole wheat, and spelt. I add the ingredients to the bread machine (dough cycle) in the order listed.

3/4 cups water

2 eggs

3 Tb of olive oil

1 1/2 Tb of salt

1/8 to 1/4 cup sugar

1 Cup white flour

1 Cup Spelt flour

1 Cup Whole Wheat Flour

1/8 to 1/4 cup Gluten (to add texture)

2 tsp of active dry yeast

After the initial mixing, make sure the dough is pliable, but not sticky.  If it is sticky, add a bit more flour (or  if lumpy, vice versa). After the dough rises, divide into about equal halves.  One half will make around five Challah rolls, which are simply twisted into shape.  Otherwise, cut the other half lengthwise into three strands, and then braid them into a Challah.

Brush with a beaten egg, and let rise at 45 Celsius until about double in size (around 1/2 an hour).  Brush again, and then sprinkle with sesame and/or poppy seeds. Bake at 180 Celsius.  I just turn the oven on with the aspiring Challahs inside and set the timer for 29 minutes.  Despite my attention to moles and proper titration, this seems to work just fine.  The Challahs should be nicely brown on the outside, but not hard.

For those without a bread maker, add the yeast directly to the liquid, and then add 1 cup of flour to blend the rest of the ingredients together (but not the gluten).  You can then add the gluten and rest of the flour and knead the dough for about five minutes.  After enough kneading, the dough should be pliable and springy, so I've read.  Let the dough rise in a warm place or oven, until about double the size.  Then proceed to divide, brush with egg, let rise again, and bake as mentioned above.

I have attached a video of last week's snowstorm, blizzard. To cook up that storm to perfection was an involved process, really the culmination of years of work. This is a credit to the developers of weather forecast technology, including a greater ability to assimilate (add) observations to the forecast models, and further improvements in the ability to simulate the finer scale cloud processes that brought our snow.

In fact, I remember experiments from the 1980s (referred to as "GALE")  to measure and better understand the finer scale physical processes that lead to the genesis and intensification of east coast US storms,  These experiments helped enable the development of improved weather forecasting technology, and started the process towards improved wintertime forecasts. In fact, I remember that the winter of 1992-93 was the first time forecasters in the New York Metropolitan area were able to predict the day to day arrival of winter storms.  Here and in our time, we make use of forecasts made by the National Center for Environmental Prediction covering the globe and combine them with our very high resolution forecast, but limited area models to predict our wintertime storms.

The video was taken in Efrat by a colleague from our Israel Winter Weather group (now four people).  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJpOO5-6Mp4&ab_channel=jconsor) We finally had more to do than talk about snow, but actually measure it.  It actually happened, and happened as forecast.  Interestingly, the snow forecast amounts were quite sensitive to elevation, even in Gush Etzion, where about 25 cm occurred in Efrat, but 30 to 40 cm was estimated in Alon Shavut, for example,  which is higher than Efrat. Moreover, the snow in Alon Shavut was more powdery than the snow in Efrat (my kids really enjoyed throwing snowballs at me, but it wasn't so easy to throw snowballs at Dads in Alon Shavut).

The next period of stormy weather should occur mid next week, when the weather should turn chillier and rainier again.

Barry Lynn 

Weather It Is (Strong Thunderstorms)

 Good Morning:

1) Possibility of strong thunderstorms, mostly across southern areas this morning, possibly moving into central areas this afternoon.

A very strong upper level low is moving across the Sinai today and will transition across southern Israel this afternoon and evening.  The strong temperature gradient between the surface and upper atmosphere, combined with dust, creates the possibility of strong thunderstorms.  These storms can produce flooding rains and hail.

Unlike the first part of February, the atmospheric pattern is set up for a period of cool weather with periodic episodes of precipitation into the first week of March.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Blizzard Warning)

 Good Morning:

A blizzard warning for Jerusalem and surrounding areas for this afternoon and evening.

The latest forecasts have shifted the center of cold air tens of kilometers southward from the forecast of yesterday morning.  This returns us closer to our original forecast of heavy snow for the Jerusalem area as well as the surrounding locations. The difference is only a small fraction of the amplitude of the atmospheric winter wave, but has very important implications for our weather.

Low pressure moving southeastward across Cyprus will reach our area this afternoon. Already, snow flurries are falling in the Jerusalem area as temperatures are near freezing.

As the coldest air moves in, winds will increase to 50 to 60 km/h, with higher gusts.  Heavy snow and wind should combine to create blizzard conditions across the central mountain areas, including Jerusalem as the afternoon moves on to evening.

The snow should start this afternoon and accumulate on colder surfaces. Late this afternoon and night, the snow should accumulate generally 5 to 10 cm in the Jerusalem area, with between 10 and  20 cm in higher elevation areas of the city boundaries.  In the area of the Shomron 15 to 20 cm,  while in Gush Etzion 30 to 40 cm.  Northern areas, such as Meron and Sefad should receive between 5 and 20 cm, depending on elevation.

The storm will abate on Thursday morning, but it should remain cold and wet (with rain, rather than snow, to follow on Friday/Shabbat.

Be well,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Significant Snow)

 Good Morning:

The Global Forecasts have come into better agreement, but in the direction of the colder GFS (American Model).

Our own forecasts are indicating a significant snow for the Jerusalem area, with the highest elevations exceeding 30 cm in the Tuesday night to Wednesday night timeframe.  Jerusalem is also expected to see significant amounts of snow.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Winterstorm is Likely)

 

Good Sunday Morning:

Another day closer, and a bit more information to pass on.  There have been some fluctuations in the weather forecast.  Even so, the United States's Global Forecast Ensemble System suggests that the atmospheric conditions will be favorable for significant snowstorm in Jerusalem and surrounding areas on Wednesday of this week..

Our high-resolution forecast shows snow and ice developing in the mountains of Safed in the afternoon on Tuesday and spreading to the mountains of the Shomron by and during Tuesday night. As for Jerusalem, only light precipitation mounts are shown as the clock moves towards 2 A.M. It's at that time that the storm should advance southward as we move into Wednesday, which will most likely lead to snow developing late Tuesday night and lasting into Wednesday night in the central mountain areas.

For those amateur meteorologists who want to see the publicly available data, they can peruse the web site https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ and click below the map for our region.  You'll find forecast maps labeled "Global" and "Ensemble." These models predict the synoptic (large scale) patterns that can bring us our inclement weather. Forecast centers produce both sets of forecast maps, but the first set are their best versions of the model, and are a single forecast for the upcoming days.  The second set are multiple forecasts made with the same model or a degraded version of the model (e.g., larger grid-spacings between forecast points). In these forecasts, small uncertainties are usually introduced into the measured observations.  This second set gives us an idea of the likelihood of the forecast event happening.

There are some differences among the models, among which the GFS/GEFS (US), GMC/GPES (Canadian), ECMWF/EPS (European) are considered the best.  Right now, the GFS and GEFS predict the heaviest potential snowfalls.  We tend to follow the GFS and the GEFS in this time frame (within a few days of a storm). In fact, our experience tells us that the GFS is a very accurate forecast model within the timeframe of a few days closest to a major snow or rain event.  Moreover, the European models are shifting in the direction (cold) of the GFS (and GEFS).  Regardless, the differences do make one pause.

We'll see how the forecasts progress as we move into Monday.

There is a lot of pressure being a meteorologist in Israel.  We're a small country living next to a relatively small body of water, which leads to generally small scale meteorological features (called mesoscale) that can bring extremely heavy rains, or even snow that falls like someone dumping flour from the sky.

I find -- and I am not alone among forecasters -- that the intensity of the situation can affect my sleeping patterns.  For instance, last night I dreamed that I had to make a forecast for heavy snow, but couldn't find the day of the forecast on the weather map.

How did I ever get involved in forecasting weather?  The main reason was disappointment.  The forecasts in the 1970s were generally terrible. It would rain when it was forecast to snow, and vice-versa.  After one such event, I asked my sixth grade teacher why it didn't snow, and on his prompting I was off to the library to learn about weather.

Back then, before the advent of the internet, one just needed a barometer, thermometer, and wind vane.  My Dad kindly placed the wind vane on the top of my childhood home (the roof! See picture), and with the "Sager Weather Forecaster" book I was off.  The world became my scientific laboratory.

But, what is my interest in snow?  For me, I was always fascinated by the different shapes that fell from the sky.  Supposedly, not a single flake -- like (most) people -- has ever been the same as any other. There are hexagons, stars, and even suns. Snowflakes fall so, so slowly, as if they have nowhere to go, but to relax and watch each other enjoy the day off from school.  As the snow falls, the world quiets until all one can hear are the whoosh of their filling parachutes as each flake breaks before landing.  In time, the Cubist world our mind sees is replaced by the softness of an Impressionist painting .

To know that such a world is likely just a few days away, is something wonderful to be able to share.

Let's hope we're up to the task!

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The Threat Grows)

 Good Evening:

The threat of a major winter snowstorm has grown since our previous update.

However, there is still some disagreement among the global forecast models concerning the positioning of the trough of very cold air.

Based on the American GEFS, there should be heavy snow from late Tuesday into late Wednesday, possibly greater than 30 cm of snow (even in Jerusalem).  However, the European model and to some extent the Canadian global models are showing a shallower trough.  Their forecast solutions would lead to a slushy accumulations in Jerusalem with more snow in Gush Etzion.  Interestingly, the operational version of the Canadian model  (at higher resolution than its ensemble) is showing about 20 cm of snow, so that favors more the GEFS forecast.  

Differences in the model forecasts can be due differences in the grid spacing in the forecasts, data assimilation schemes, and model physics.  As we've noted before, the Siberian trough is originating from an area with less data coverage, making the forecast more difficult.  Regardless, we see a lot of potential for a snowstorm. 

Tomorrow morning, we should have more information to pass along. We'll then be able on Monday to offer our own snow forecast accumulations from our high resolution forecast model. 

Shavua Tov,

Barry Lynn