Weather It Is (Heavy Rain and High Wind Warning)

Good Afternoon:

A high wind warning (Near Gale with Gale Force Gusts) for Tuesday afternoon.  A cold front will bring the high winds, and with them should come heavy rain with localised street flooding along the central coast and likely more severe flooding from Haifa northward.

The probability of high winds is near 100%.

Rain is expected in the Jerusalem area in the Tuesday evening and night.

The high winds and rain herald a sea-change in our weather.  In fact, over the next week or so temperatures will be unseasonably cold with at least two and possibly three upper level troughs passing through our area, each bringing a period of rain.

Appropriate actions should be taken to prepare for wind and heavy rains.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (One More Day)

Good Evening:

There is one more day of nice weather and then temperatures will drop steadily into Wednesday.

A cool front will slip through our area Sunday evening and then intensify over the next couple of days.

By Tuesday evening, a strong winter storm should be located in the eastern Mediterranean.  The global models are showing a strong likelihood of rain, but rain amounts are not particularly large.

However, the sea temperatures are still quite warm and temperatures will fall below -15 C as a strong upper air system approaches and enters our area. This means that the likelihood of thunderstorms is quite high, which could bring localised very heavy rain.

Winds will also be strong, perhaps reaching near gale levels with higher gusts.

Looking further ahead, there is a 20% chance the upper air system will intensify and temperatures aloft will fall even more, leading to more heavy rain about the time of Shabbat.

While rain chances beyond Wednesday are uncertain, what is certain is that tomorrow is the last day of what some would call a late summer, and that we're headed into winter now.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Stormy Weather)

Good Morning:

Stormy weather is on the way.

First, a tropical system will push moisture northward and bring rain southern Israel today and over Jordan.

Second, a more winter-like storm should arrive mid-next week and with it temperatures should fall to levels associated more with winter than with fall.

Our highest resolution model shows that rain should redevelop late this evening and affect central and northern coastal areas, as well as the Jerusalem area tonight.  Rain showers will probably continue tomorrow.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Safety Tip for Wet Roads)

Good Evening:

For the first time this year, the clouds really look like rain clouds.  They have grey bottoms and are showing some vertical depth.

However, our forecasts are not showing any tropical rain showers until possibly Thursday, and then things become a bit murky.

What we do know is that the weather at end of the month will be chillier than its been in quite sometime.  We also know that an upper air system (at 500 mb) will pass by on Friday morning, and that it could trigger thunderstorms throughout the area.

However, beyond this, we see possibilities of a more substantial rain, but nothing definitive.

So,  we'll have to wait a day or so to be better able to say how the pattern develops.  Certainly, it is more fall-like (or even wintry) than we saw just a couple of days ago.

Regarding that safety tip.  Sometimes we are faced with the situation where there are more kids to put in the backseat than there are seat belts.  The "traditional" solution to this problem for small children is to buckle them together.

However, it turns out that there is a relatively new law in Israel that says this is illegal, and the penalty is a possible loss of license.  The question is why?

Unfortunately, it's basic physics that are obvious when given a moment thought.  The seat belt is shaped like a parabola (a semi-circle).  In a crash, there is both a frontal force from the seat belt repelling the forward deceleration of the car,  as well as force from the side (since the seatbelt is curved inwards).

The end result is that children sitting together can knock their heads together with such force that of them can main or even kill the other.

Pretty serious, and that's why there is this new law.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Please Decide)

Good Evening:

"Did you know that I asked my husband if he'd cleaned out the grill from our Succoth barbecue.  He said 'yes.'  Well, he didn't quite.  I've asked him three times if the bag of charcoal next to the front gate is garbage. 'No, it isn't,' he assures me."

"I am trying to figure out when he'll understand that if it isn't garbage it shouldn't be there..."

"Wait a moment!"  "This is my blog!"  "If you want to write a blog, please go ahead and feel free to call it 'Wives It Is."

Now that I have wrested my blog back from the clutches of the Wife, I can tell you that Weather It Is has made (actually, possibly made) a major scientific breakthrough.  We've determined that there is an inverse correlation between our months of nice weather and the lack of missile fire from Gaza. For instance, since June there have been very, very few missiles and no extreme temperature days.  There have been no dust storms. Moreover, we are about to complete our first Succoth in many years without any wind damage to its structure, nor was the weather particularly humid or hot.

Weather It Is scientists are and will be hard at work developing the physical basis for this startling and perhaps earth-shaking discovery.

Getting back to the basics, were looking at a continued likelihood of no change in the weather during next two weeks.  However, there is a 25% chance of rain at the end of the week, but there is also a 25% chance that it will warm up a bit.

Given a choice before up and down (or possibly more missiles), we'll go with more of the same -- nothing to write about.

Hag Samaech,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Cool Temperatures)

Good Morning:

There are clouds this morning, and bit of chill in the air.

Our highest resolution forecast shows a chance of sprinkles along the coast.

We're definitely experiencing the coolest weather of our fall season.

Northwesterly winds should continue into Sunday.  With them, the chill will continue.

A change in the winds should start a warming trend on Simchat Torah or the day after, which should continue until the end of next week.  In fact, the warmer temperatures should last until the end of the month.  Still, it will just be pleasantly warm.

During this time, there is a small chance of showers, without a chance of significant rain until the end of the month.

Modim L'Simcha,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Cool Weather On The Way)

Good Evening:

The weather will remain mild through Sukkoth Eve (Sunday evening), and then a cool front will move through bringing a noticeable chill to the air that will last through this coming week.

In fact, the nighttime lows will probably be the coolest of the year.

However, the beginning of the following week (Erev Simchat Torah) will see the start of a warming trend that will last into mid-the-following week.

The end of this week will also feature more low level moisture, so with the cool temperatures will come some clouds and some light showers.  However, it looks like the mid-level moisture (at 700 mb) will stay to our north and so will any more significant rain.

Hag Samaech,

Barry Lynn