Saturday, November 30, 2013

Weather It Is (Watch Out!)

Good Evening

While it may be true that it is unusual for Israelis to agree among themselves, the Israel weather forecast  can sometime reach a consensus.

The last and most important time was the week before the big snow.

Well (folks), we've reached consensus again (or at least the Global Forecast Ensemble has).

The weather is going to turn colder, and it is going to turn colder still.  The temperatures should fall by at least 10 degrees Celsius from tomorrow into mid-week.  All ensemble members are indicating rain across the country; however, the total amounts are still uncertain.

Looking into next week, most of the ensemble members indicate a continuation of the winter cold.  However, a few members indicate that the cold will deepen, and produce our first snow -- which would be a very early snowfall!  As mentioned previously, this is climatologically unlikely, but the cold and rain are a very high probability (God willing, as someone in the Synaogogue today said).

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Weather It Is (So Long, Good Bye)

Good Evening:

Oh what a beautiful day it was.  In fact, I heard a few: "it's hot out there."

Well, this weather is going, going, and will soon be gone.  Temperatures will drop by about 10 degrees or so by end of the week, and showers will dot the landscape as winter makes an entrance.

During Chanukah, temperatures will moderate a bit, but all ensemble members are predicting that the holiday will end with a more significant winter blast, with the potential (but not certainty) of heavy rain.

Interestingly, a few ensemble members are predicting the potential for a very early season snow. Given the calendar date, we should expect these snow possibilities to melt away as we approach the actual event.

Happy Chanukah!

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Weather It Is (How Are Those Chances Now?)

Good Evening:

Actually, the chance of rain is still pretty low before mid-next week.  In fact, temperatures should warm up, and the air should become hazy with dust.  While the temperatures will be quite comfortable, the dust might bother some folks.

Looking beyond a week, we seeing a stronger hint of winter weather.  Earlier today, almost all of the ensemble members were pointing towards a winter storm, but now the ensemble has backed off a bit from consensus.  Still, with enough hints, winter might actually get the message.

Barry Lynn

Monday, November 18, 2013

Weather It Is (Is That Weather?)

Good Evening:

Today it rained, but not in many places.  The occasional showers we've been seeing from time to time are the result of cooler air filtering in at mid and upper levels. The cooler air increases the instability of the atmosphere, and cumulonimbus clouds pop up from time to time, rain out, and then dissipate.

Looking ahead, the weather looks like it will be warming up over the next several days. This might be a bit confusing to those who have already turned on the heat or decided that winter is on our doorstep.

Don't give up hope, though, there is a 10% chance that next week will end with a cold winter storm -- but it may end just as it started today.

Barry Lynn