Monday, September 28, 2015

Weather It Is (A Little Bit of This and That)

Good Evening:

I had a rather uncomfortable experience today.  I ran into someone who remembers a forecast I made last winter that was not correct.  Fortunately, I remembered it too, so I was ready with my ready made excuses -- like sometimes even a meteorologist gets caught up in the excitement of a potential snow event and can overlook important details.  Actually, this was really more an issue of making better use of the weather information I had at the time, which I've since done (quite well, actually).

Really, I'd like to never have to make an excuse.  We strive for 100% accuracy.  Of course, 100% accuracy actually means that the probability of weather event is provided correctly -- as we never have a complete picture of the weather.  For instance, a 80% of 10 mm of rain in 24 hours means that eight of ten times such should happen when such a probability is given. This would actually be a "100 %" accurate forecast.  More precisely, it means that the probability distribution of the observations should fit the probability distribution of the forecasts.

The weather today was actually quite spectacular, and tomorrow's should be as well. However, there is a strong mid-level shortwave approaching Tuesday night.  The cooling mid-level temperatures combined with some low and mid-level moisture will bring the possibility of some showers into our area.  At the moment, the probability is low, but it is the kind of situation where small scale (hard to forecast) variability (caused by localised changes in topography and winds) can lead to small-scale showers or thundershowers.

The less than perfect weather should last into Wednesday afternoon.  Temperatures will warm up a bit on Thursday and Friday and the nice weather should last to the end of Hag.

Yet, changes are afoot -- and the circulation pattern is transitioning to a more winter-like pattern as we progress towards the middle of the month.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Weather It Is (Just the -> Perfect Chalah Recipe



This makes two large challahs (round or oblong) and 4 small Challah rolls). For half a recipe, add 1/2 TB of salt, instead of 2 1/4 tsps (as below).  You can add raisins to the dough before you roll it up later on (you should put the raisins along the middle of the dough and then fold it over, so the raisins don't cook on the outside of the dough).

You can preheat the oven to 190 Celsius (about 375 F).  If you do, you probably only need 25 minutes of cook time.  Turning the oven on when you put the dough in allows the dough to quickly rise a bit more.

Set aside 6 cups bread flour (and 2 cups whole wheat flour) and then sift to remove any bugs.

In a mixing bowl.

1) Add 2 cups warm water.
2) Add 1/2 cup light brown sugar.
3) Add 1/4 cup honey.
4) Add 3 TB instant yeast.

--> Mix with an egg beater or fork.

5) Add one cup flour -- let rest until bubbles form (yeast needs to "warm-up").

--> Mix with an egg beater.

6) Add 1/2 cup gluten.
7) Add 1/4 cup oil.
8) Add two eggs.
9) Add one cup flour.

--> Mix with an egg beater.

10) Add 2 1/4 tsp of salt.  Don't forget the salt!

--> Attach bread kneading device (or use your hands).

11) Knead bread and add enough flour (about 5 cups) until bread is dry enough to handle with your hands (and a bit elastic). I usually let this go on about 5 to 10 minutes (but over beating can break down the gluten).
12) Remove from mixing bowl and knead a few minutes with your hands, adding enough flour to keep bread from being sticky (but don't add too much flour to make the dough dry).
13) Return to bowl.
14) Spray with canola oil. Cover with wax paper, and a light wet towel.  Put in a warm oven (60 C).
15) About 45 minutes later, the dough should have doubled in size.
16) Punch it down, and then use 2/3 of the dough for making two loafs, and the rest for making rolls. You can add a little bit of flour to keep it from being sticky.
17) Grease pans.
18) Spray dough with Canola oil.
19) About 45 minutes later, the dough should have doubled in size again.
20) Cook for 28 minutes on 190 C, until outside is hard to the touch.
21) Remove from oven, cool on racks until warm and then remove from baking pans.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Weather It Is (The Day the Clocks Stopped)

Good Afternoon:

Was I the only one who noticed?  Perhaps because I was looking outside at the sky when it happened (and not at my prayer book, which is about 775 pages long): I was apparently spared -- whatever happened.

Before turning around, I noted the temperature and time on the digital clock (5:46 P.M), and when I turned back the clock said the same time -- although the temperature had changed by a degree.

This went on for at least several minutes, the congregation oblivious to the fact that they were reading and rereading the same page over and over again. The members swaying in the wind like reeds.

It was one of the strangest things I've seen.

Today the weather and the time is back to normal.  Never has food tasted so good (of course, we're fortunate not to live in a time of famine, God forbid).  It's 31 C and 28% humidity with a light wind and it's absolutely perfect outside.

Looking ahead: Shabbat may seem some tropical showers and then the Sukkoth holiday should be pleasantly warm and dry (although the end of the holiday may see some more tropical clouds/showers).

There is a 30% chance of our "first" rain will around or shortly after Simchat Torah.

Hag Samaech,

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Weather It Is (A Tad Warm? --> The Perfect Challah)

Good Morning:

The other day I wrote that Yom Kippur looks to be a "tad" on the warm side.  This is true, but it's not the complete story.

In fact, in the central mountains, temperatures will be (as noted) in the low 30s with low humidity.  This means that the Heat Index will be similar to, or even a bit lower than the forecast temperatures.

However, in the central plains areas (e.g., Ben Gurion and Bet-Shemesh), temperatures will be in the mid 30s.  In Tel-Aviv, they will be in the upper 20s to around 30 Celsius, but humidities will be very high, so the Heat Index will be in the low 30s.

Basically, Yom Kippur will be a day where extra caution will need to be exercised.  Stay out of the sun, try to stay indoors and don't walk very fast anywhere.  One might not feel like one is perspiring where the humidities are low, but you are. So, dehydration is a possibility.

Looking ahead, Thursday will stay on the hot side, but temperatures will cool off towards Shabbat. Temperatures will warm up a bit into Sukkoth, but there could be some showers at the end of the month.  I am hoping that the weather signal will become clearer after we're all done doing our "Teshuvah."

As you all know, I consider myself a scientist, and I often experiment in areas outside my field -- like baking bread.  Unfortunately, I reached the nadir of my efforts one Shabbat when the Challah I made for the guests came out rather flat -- more like honey cake than bread. I was stumped, but the the wife said: "it's the honey."  Of course, this was obvious to her but not to me (see: "Women are Wiser" from a blog in September 2014; copied below).  If you've ever lifted a honey jar one can imagine that our little yeast friends would also find it difficult as well.  There were other issues that had to be overcome, but to make a long story short here is the "Perfect Challah Recipe."

This makes two large challahs (round or oblong) and 4 small Challah rolls). For half a recipe, add 1/2 TB of salt, instead of 2 1/4 tsps (as below).  You can add raisins to the dough before you roll it up later on (though. don't let the raisins be on the outside of the dough).

Set aside 6 cups bread flour (and 2 cups whole wheat flour) and then sift to remove any bugs.

In a mixing bowl.

1) Add 2 cups warm water.
2) Add 1/2 cup light brown sugar.
3) Add 1/4 cup honey.
4) Add 3 TB instant yeast.

--> Mix with an egg beater or fork.

5) Add one cup flour -- let rest until bubbles form (yeast needs to "warm-up").

--> Mix with an egg beater.

6) Add 1/2 cup gluten.
7) Add 1/4 cup oil.
8) Add two eggs.
9) Add one cup flour.

--> Mix with an egg beater.

10) Add 2 1/4 tsp of salt.  Don't forget the salt!

--> Attach bread kneading device (or use your hands).

11) Knead bread and add enough flour (about 5 cups) until bread is dry enough to handle with your hands. I usually let this go on about 5 to 10 minutes.
12) Remove from mixing bowl and knead a few minutes with your hands, adding enough flour to keep bread from being sticky (but don't add too much flour to make the dough dry).
13) Return to bowl.
14) Spray with canola oil. Cover with wax paper, and a light wet towel.  Put in a warm oven (60 C).
15) About 45 minutes later, the dough should have doubled in size.
16) Punch it down, and then use 2/3 of the dough for making two loafs, and the rest for making rolls. You can add a little bit of flour to keep it from being sticky.
17) Grease pans.
18) Spray dough with Canola oil.
19) About 45 minutes later, the dough should have doubled in size again.
20) Cook for 28 minutes on 190 C, until outside is hard to the touch.
21) Remove from oven, cool on racks until warm and then remove from baking pans.

Good Morning:

It is said that women are wise, wives are wiser, and young ladies are on their way to wisdom. Thus, it was with much appreciation when I heard from my wife and youngest daughter that winter had arrived, and that winter showers were on their way.  Not understanding that women (and even young ladies) can be impulsive,  I dutifully reported this weather-scoop to you.  True, our forecast maps did show some light rain, but a less emotional hand would have also held the wheel a little more firmly, tacking with the wind -- which was set to move the developing clouds into the late summer/dry desert air. Hence, a more wise word to the wind would have been: winter's here, but any rain drops will probably evaporate before reaching the ground.

Of course, men like to think that they are wise too.  In fact, many men equate money with wisdom, without considering how much more successful women just might be if they spent as much time "making a living" as men -- rather than ensuring that the next generation will know how to spend their money and time wisely and kindly.  If you're not convinced, a couple of examples will follow.

After falling on a slippery floor -- on her head, and being saved by the gallant, courageous, and intrepid Dr. Glick, my wife returned home with 11 stitches.  Being the wise person she is, she noted that the best way to treat accidents is to prevent them, and she sent me out for a floor mat.  Now, she was standing in front of the meat sink, so I immediately dashed out of the house, and was pleased to be able to purchase a spanking new (and quite ethestic ) floor mat from "Big-Deal" Efrat.  Returning truimphantly  to my house with this purchase, she reminded me that we have two sinks, to which I could only reply that she made her request standing in front of one (but not the other).

Another example:  I can be in the kitchen washing the dishes, emptying the dishwasher, cooking, or preparing school food, when the wife arrives.  These, one might think, are very useful things. Obviously, I am really not that smart, as I inevitably am told that I am in her way, and what am doing there at that time in particular, anyway.  A truly wise man would know when the wife is about to arrive and take appropriate action.

I will -- for a first -- wisely end here, but mention that there is absolutely no weather expected for the next two weeks. If expectations are not met, I'll let you know.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, September 20, 2015

Weather It Is (A Quick Bout of Fall)

Good Afternoon:

A quick bout of fall as a sharp short-wave (and accompaning low pressure area) moves into our area tonight and tomorrow.

This storm does not have a lot of moisture associated with it. Nevertheless, we expect showers along the coast later tonight spreading north and south (to Mitzpe Rimon) by morning.

Rain showers are also possible in the central mountains by morning.

The amounts of rain should generally be light, but we can't rule out a heavier shower as there will be some patches of higher humidity.

Yom Kippur should be a nice day, a tad warm, but generally not too humid.

Barry




Thursday, September 17, 2015

Weather It Is (It Sure Is Nice, but Rain is also a Blessing)

Good Afternoon:

It sure is nice outside.  The temperature at 3 IDT is 30 C, with 38% humidity and a heat index of 29 C.  This just shows that with the low humidity, it actually feels cooler than it is.  There's also a light westerly wind at 5 km/h.

To be honest with you, I'm looking forward to the day(s) when I can write about the possibility (and then hopefully probability) of our first snow.  It's different in America (the USA), where a snow storm pops up on the horizon and arrives just a few days later (at most).  Here, we often have to look two weeks ahead and by the storm arrives I am a bit of a nervous wreck.  You see, I don't want to raise expectations too high and commit the "sin" of misleading anyone.

Speaking of sins, we all headed over to the neighbors to throw our sins into their beautiful pond complete with swimming (rather than plastic) fish and (real) Lilly Pads.  They have an amazing new device (that you can even use on Hag). It's called a "Sinometer."  You pass it on your way in and a number (in my case: 64-kg) comes up and on the way out it reads (in my case) 54-kg.  It means that in my case I unburdened myself of 10 Kilos of sins.

Contrast this to my wife.   Before heading off to do Taschlich, I asked her "what's that?"  "Oh, this is my bag of sins."  It turns out it was empty.  Why was it empty?  Because my son said that he was sure that she needed a bigger bag (and one can see just how important it is to treat our children with a light  and caring hand), and he'd proceeded to empty it of all its contents.

Of course, I was curious about what (sins) might have been in the bag -- as last year and the year before she had none to speak of.  "Oh, the time I made you potatoes when you wanted pasta, and the time I made for you pasta when you wanted rice," she answered.

So, now I know where at least some of those Kilos came from:  not (always) expressing proper appreciation for all the goodness she bestows upon me.  Part of being kind is expressing happiness even when some of the small things in life don't go your way.

That still leaves about 8 Kilos, but I need to detour back to the weather.  We see pretty much the same weather through Sunday, except for a degree warmer.  However, a low pressure front will approach on Sunday night and drop temperatures on Monday and Tuesday by about 5 degrees Celsius. It will also bring our first chance of heavier showers (not counting the thunderstorms that occurred Tuesday/Tuesday night -- especially in the south).  It's not sunny weather, but I'm sure that you'd agree it's a blessing nevertheless.

The clouds should mostly part by Wednesday morning and temperatures will moderate back up today's pleasant weather temperatures-- as Yom Kippur morning services begin.

Looking further ahead, there is about a 30% chance it will get a bit hot, a 40% chance that temperatures will just continue as they will be (on Wednesday; Yom Kippur), and a 30% chance that the weather will turn cooler.

It pretty much sums up our predicament.  Will we work to make ourselves better, or -- God forbid -- slip on the ice -- or will we just stay the same?

Now, I know where the other 8 Kilos of sins came from: not enough patience with my children and not enough effort to be better.  You see, if you're not trying to be better you're really getting worse.

Let's make this New Year something special!

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Weather It Is (Tropical Weather)

Good Afternoon:

The weather has turned a bit tropical -- meaning higher humidities.  At the same time temperatures are cooling in the upper atmosphere meaning that the stability of the atmosphere is lowering.

The result will be a chance of more thundershowers.  Some of them may cause flooding in the vicinity of the Dead Sea later this afternoon and evening.

There will also be a chance of showers down to Mitzpe Rimon and up in the area of Lake Kinneret.

Unfortunately, this is a "hit or miss" type of weather situation, where very small scale atmospheric processes will trigger storms just about anywhere in the area mentioned.  Hence storms are possible, but putting a probability to their occurrence is difficult.

In any case, some of these storms could lead to stream flooding, as 5 to 10 mm could fall in some locations around Jerusalem and the Dead Sea.

On Monday and Tuesday of next week a stronger system will move through, bringing a chance of a more general rainfall.  Will it be termed the "First-Rain?"  We'll have to wait a bit to get closer to the event and then let the "talking-heads" decide.

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Weather It Is (Early Showers?)

Good Evening:


Weather spotters (as in young eager eyes) have reported lightning in the eastern sky.  I have confirmed its occurrence.

The weather is changing and we're going to be directly affected.

The latest forecast shows a chance of thundershowers tomorrow afternoon in the Jerusalem and Dead Sea area.  We'll try to report on rain probabilities tomorrow morning.

Looking into early next week:  temperatures will be undergoing a cooling trend for the next few days.  However, a trough will develop to our west and bring warmer temperatures on Sunday.  As it moves through, we'll have our highest rain chances of the new year, as well as cooler temperatures.

Stay tuned.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Weather It Is (Weather for the New Year)

Good Morning:

I have received some complaints in the last few days.

So, I must apologise for the following:

1) When I predicted sunny skies and a cloud passed your way.

2) When I predicted a cloud or two, but a drop damped your day.

3) When I predicted 10 inches of snow, but only five fell your way.


And of course, there's dust.

"Very disappointed with your site.  Day after it happened you mention "dust advisory".  Where were you before?  The storm was coming our way week in advance and nobody mentioned it!  What good does this kind of weather reporting does?"

Perhaps it's not my fault?

In last week's parsha (Ki-Tavo), we learned: "But it shall come to pass, if thou will not heaken to the voice of the Lord thy God, to observe to do all his commandments... The Lord shall make the rain of thy land powder and dust: from heaven shall it come down upon thee, until thou be destroyed."

(Thank you to my oldest daughter for this observation.)

The reader has to keep in mind that there are things we know and things we don't know.  There are things we know we don't know. Then there are also things we don't know we don't know (as Donald Rumsfeld once said).

However, in our case, a better metaphor would be a tree falling in a forest and nobody noticed. We did know, but...

Everytime I issue a blog forecast, I deal with a lot of information.  Over the years, I have worked to synthesize this data in a way that allows me to stay on top of the important weather events.  We produce dust forecast maps.  I can tell you that we correctly forecast that there would be a widespread dust event, and we forecast it in advance.  One just had to look at the dust maps.  Moreover, we correctly forecast that it wouldn't go away "by [last] Wednesday morning," as thought elsewhere.

However, perhaps because of the origin of the dust or perhaps because we haven't had enough time to test this model (that we adapted from elsewhere), it wasn't clear just how high the concentrations would be. They were forecast to be persistent, but the forecast concentrations were less than observed.  So, first off, the forecast dust did not trigger one of my forecast "alarms." Second, it actually didn't occur to me to think about dust with this last heat wave (some call it "storm" -- as it came from a place we never had dust from before) -- so I didn't even look at the maps until I awoke in the morning on Tuesday.  Not thinking to look and not having my warning algorithm tripped by the forecast dust amounts meant that I was left in the dark -- or basically the tree fell and no one noticed.

Of course, one can argue that dust is not weather, but people around here think it's weather and we're going to make a better effort to get it right.

Regarding another complaint:

"What is wrong with your site?

It is predicting thunderstorms every day this week. Not a chance in Hell. It’s over 30 degrees centigrade out, and is very very very rarely rains in Israel in thesummer.

Something is WRONG with your data. It is Not going to rain, much less thunderstorm...
shalom"

Our site shows a chance of thunderstorms in some locations. Actually, the global forecast model also shows a chance of showers in the next few days.   The algorithm that produces these results is based on an analysis of stability factors.  It wasn't designed for here and it needs to be better tuned for here.  Still, there is a short period in the fall when it actually works, and this may be one of them (this is in contrast to our forecasts based purely on forecast cloud rain amounts).

Now that this is out of the way,

Here's our weather:  hot through the Rosh Hashanah holiday.  Not 100 F, but still hot, and while not as hot in the valleys as in the mountains, more humid.  High temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s Celsius just about everywhere, and hotter in the Jordan, Dead Sea Valley, and southern deserts.  In fact, down in the desert area there will persistent dust and a large amount of dust is forecast to advect off the Sinai tomorrow afternoon into Tuesday.  There will also be lighter dust amounts in the northern part of the country, especially the eastern half.

Cooler weather will not arrive until sometime Wednesday.  Rain showers may occur early next week.

La Shana Tova!

Barry Lynn

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Weather It Is (Some Dust Pictures From Efrat (and Dead Sea -- last two from Tuesday)





Weather It Is (Dangerous, Dangerous Conditions)

Good Afternoon:

At about 2 PM (see below), the temperature reached 100 F, with light northerly winds and moderately low humidity.  Both dust and high heat has made for dangerously, dangerous conditions.

There is a 20% chance that Friday will be a degree or two Celsius warmer than today.

At the same time, dust continues to spin around low pressure located to our east and our forecast dust maps show that it won't be over tomorrow (as suggested elsewhere).

Even worse, as low pressure develops over the Mediterranean on Shabbat it should drag in dust from the sandy deserts located to our south and southeast.  The approach of a cool(er) front on Shabbat should cause the winds to pick up and may raise dust levels even further.

The good news is that late during the day on Shabbat the dust levels should drop from northwest to south, but this will be a slow process  -- so lighter  dust levels will persist until Sunday morning, especially in the south.

Sunday and the start of the New Year will be at least  a few degrees cooler than today and tomorrow's heat, and then cooler and more fall-like weather will follow.

Keep in mind that very hot temperatures, low humidity, and winds create a high fire risk.

These conditions are also extremely hazardous to our health.  Stay inside and try to stay in air conditioned rooms.

Shabbat Shalom,

Shana Tova,

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Weather It Is (Dangerous Conditions)

Good Afternoon:

Yesterday, the winds blew around a low pressure system located to our east and then took a short detour over the humid sea.  The result was both heat and high humidity, more like New York City in summer than Jerusalem.  Even worse, the dust levels were persistent and high and they combined with the high humidity to produce a dust fog.

Today, the winds are more east of north so humidities are much lower.  However, the heat is worse and the dust persists.

Looking at the evolving synoptic pattern, we see that Thursday's and Friday's temperatures will likely be a few degrees warmer than today's and the dust will persist (if not intensify tomorrow).

This means temperatures in low to mid 30s moving into the mid to upper 30s in many locations.  Moreover, humidity levels will rise a bit make the heat index that much worse.

Shabbat and Sunday look to be a few degrees cooler than end of the week's highs, but the humidity levels will be moderate to high, so it won't feel that much cooler.

The first day of the New Year should still be generally hot  (upper 20s to very low 30s; with temperatures near 90 F) in many locations.

The second day of the New Year should be cooler and then were headed towards more pleasant weather (and perhaps mostly clear skies) mid next week.

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Weather It Is (A Lot of Dust, Heat)

Good Afternoon:

Light wind, statically stable temperatures, and a persistent flow from the desert (to our east) has led to  a build up of dust.  It's also leading to fog as there is enough moisture left to combine with the dust to create many small (fog) droplets.

Our dust forecast maps (shown on our web site) indicate that elevated levels of dust should persist  into Thursday (not Wednesday as being reported in some quarters).

Meanwhile, the heat should continue to build as the week progresses.  While Shabbat is suppose to be the hottest day, there is a 30% chance that Sunday will be even hotter.

The first day of Rosh Hashanah should lead a cooling trend, but there will be no rapid drop off in temperatures, but a gradual cooling towards the Yom Kippur.

At the moment, we don't see the few days before Sukkoth as being particular warm, but pleasant skies, warm temperatures, and a few fair weather clouds should preface the holiday.

For those wondering about the forecast on our web site, we indicate sunny skies.  The forecast dust amounts are not high enough to trigger a warning on the forecast site, but it is apparent that the length  of time for which we will be affected by these relatively low concentration dust amounts could lead to health problems in those who more easily suffer from atmospheric related illnesses. Also, dust amounts will be higher in some of the mountain areas, especially in the area of the southern deserts.

Barry Lynn

Monday, September 7, 2015

Weather It Is (Summer Returns)

Good Morning:

It's 19 C (about 65 F), 95% humidity, with very light winds out of the west -- at about 5 A.M. I'm up rather early today because we had a small, but significant plumbing disaster.  Of course, a bit of misfortune is always a good opportunity for a little introspection and improvement.  What's important is that when the kids get up (and the wife too), things will almost be back to normal.

The way the weather will be heating up will make us wonder if we're being sent a message right before the New Year.  True, it won't warm up very fast this week, but it will get progressively hotter.
The heat is courtesy of a confluence of events: high pressure situated to our north combining with desert low pressure to our east.  The result will be an increasing eastward component to the wind which will bring the hot air situated to our east into our area.   True, the humidity will go down a bit, but the heat will go up.

In fact, just before Rosh HaShanah, the heat may go way, way up as low pressure develops over the Mediterranean, winds pick up, and the pipeline to the desert heat opens.  One might have a feeling that we've erred a bit and the "Garden of Eden" has been replaced by its much hotter counterpart.

Fortunately, it looks like cooler air will follow late next week.

Shana Tova,

Barry Lynn

Friday, September 4, 2015

Weather It Is (A Tad on the Humid Side)

Good Morning:

The mornings give the impression that fall coolness is on the way.  While that may be true in the early morning, warm (mid to upper 20s in the coastal plain and central mountains) and humid temperatures will be the rule through mid next week.  It's even possible that the muggy weather will continue until the end of next week.

Right now it is 25 C, 56% humidity, with light northwesterly winds.  The sun is shining and with the exception of the nights it will (should) continue to shine for the next couple of weeks.

Nevertheless, some changes are under foot (actually occurring above us in the atmosphere).  At 500 mb, the warm (Indian) monsoon winds are departing and temperatures at 500 mb will be dropping from their "highs" of -4 C to about -8 C, and possibly even lower over the next two weeks.  Combined with cooling temperatures at 700 mb, we could see some fair weather clouds.

This is the time of year when our actions and words are suppose to make a difference.  So, I encourage everyone to "be-good" so we can have a cold and snowy (again!) winter. I am already getting requests, so let's make this a reality.

Shabbat Shalom

Barry Lynn




Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Weather It Is (They Say)

Good Afternoon:

The other morning the wife tells me that (the radio says) it's going to rain that afternoon.  I quickly consulted our forecast models and decided that this was a bit premature.  The next day one daughter says: "well, I guess that's it for summer."  Yesterday, the son asks: "when is it going to rain?"  Another daughter says today: "winter's arrived!"

Except it hasn't.  In fact, the weather might be just a tad unpleasant this week.  It's not the heat, it's the humidity, they say. Actually, temperatures in the mid 20s to near 30 C in some locations combined with high humidity will make people sweat (which is pretty yukky if you happen to be around them).

True, the weather map is becoming more active and temperatures will be falling off at upper levels, but the desert low pressure area to our east (combined with humid winds off the sea) will maintain just enough of an influence to makes things uncomfortable.

The good news is that mid-next week will probably bring in some cooler air, but right now it's not clear just how much cooler.

Regarding our fall and early winter weather: it looks like it is "leaning" to the cooler than normal "side."

Barry Lynn