Monday, August 15, 2016

Weather It Is (Some Like It Hot)

Good Morning:

For those who like it hot, well..., this is not the week for hot weather.

As you can see, it has been unusually chilly across Europe.

http://notrickszone.com/2016/08/12/surface-frost-strikes-germany-mid-august-temperatures-shatter-old-records/#sthash.9y4PhlKf.iHReujGO.dpbs

In fact, it has been colder than late December.

Here, the temperatures in the mountains should be in the mid-20s, while in the coastal plains the upper 20s.  Nighttime temperatures should fall into the low 20s in the coastal plain and the mid-teens in the mountains.  So, it will feel like fall rather than summer.

However,  Shabbat should begin a warm-up, but again temperatures will only return to about seasonable, if not below seasonable temperatures as next week progresses.  If we look to the end of the month, we see possibly much hotter weather, but not (yet) any extreme heat.

You can see relatively cool lower tropospheric temperatures over Europe at this link:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=eu&t=9p

We're on the receiving end of some of this weather.

Note, also, the movement of the hot area of lower pressure over the deserts to our east a bit westward late this week and early next. It then retreats a bit as a high pressure ridge develops to our west and funnels somewhat cooler weather southward towards the end of next week.

Barry Lynn


Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Weather It Is (Does It Feel A Bit Chilly?)

Good Evening:

Does it feel a bit cool?  Last night I heard someone exclaim: "It's winter out there!"

Of course, everyone knows it's not winter, and that August has been (in recent memory) full of hot days.

Yet, can you really argue when someone says: "it's winter out there."  After all, people don't go around saying: "it's winter out there," in the middle of August -- just for fun.

So, what's going on?  It's not obvious, but our cool weather may have something to do where we are in the current cycle of sunspots.

https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/761581379121446912/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

In fact, the "Commodity Group" is suggesting that the upcoming sunspot minimum might be more severe than the previous that occurred from 2008 -- 2010, as we head into a cycle that was known in the past as  the "Dalton Minimum."  This occurred from from 1790 to 1830.

While the year 1816 was known as the year without a summer, it has been suggested that the combination of a volcano eruption and minimum solar sunspot (or solar output) at that time were the combination of events that led to the unusually cold temperatures.

In any case, the warm up we saw in the model forecasts  as a possibility for this mid-week has instead  turned to the cooler forecast solutions, which are suppose to last all week, and then intensify from Sunday onwards.  By intensify, I don't mean to be "hot," but on the unusually cool side of things.

The irony is that the weather maps looks a typical summertime weather map, but temperatures don't reflect this. Moreover, as we head into next week low pressure developing over Turkey and the Black Sea will push even cooler weather our way.  The weather map will then resemble a bit more like fall then summer.

Might there be an upturn at the end of August.  Yes.

Does the minimum in sun spot activity imply a snowy winter? Possibly, as many times in the Jerusalem area and Gush Etzion it rains at just 1 or 2 C.  A little bit of cooling here or there and we could see a bit more snow than usual.

Lastly, the ocean circulation as El-Nino/La-Nina will be turning to the "La-Nina" (cooling) side in the Pacific Ocean, which also help to reduce global temperatures.

Sincerely,

Barry Lynn


Friday, August 5, 2016

Weather It Is (Just Right)

Good Morning:

The weather has turned just right.  It wasn't always this way. In fact, we've had a spate of somewhat hot summer days, but punctuated by high humidity.  This has made what might be a tolerably hot summer day feel uncomfortable, even in the mountainous areas that are typically hot, but usually dry.

It looks like the middle of next week will turn quite hot again as hot air moves westward from the Saudia Arabian desert, but temperatures should cool off in time for Shabbat and Ninth of Av.  This will make the fast go easier for many folks.  The cooler temperatures will arrive on westerly winds as strong low pressure is forecast to develop over the Black Sea and Turkey.

Have you ever noticed that families often have children, and then (when the children grow up a bit), they get a dog or a cat or even two.

It is really a shame that couples don't practice first with a pet or two before they answer the unknowns of child raising, or even that husband or wife "to be" don't practice by themselves, before tying the knot.

For instance,  animals can teach communication: when I hear a "Meow" outside the door, I know to let my cat in (the opposite is true). When I hear the Meow in the kitchen, it means  "special food."   Did I mention that when the dog sort of makes a sighing sound at the door it means: "please open the door?"  A loud bark means: "I am excited!"

Constrast with what happens between husband and wife, when the husband is in the kitchen (he may be just passing through, or looking for a glass of water).  "Meow," goes the wife.  The husband immediately translates: "What are you doing? Why is there a mess? Why are you in the kitchen?"  He doesn't answer because he doesn't know which question to answer.  When the wife says that the trash is full, does this mean that the trash is full or that the husband should take the garbage out?

Think of this from the wife's point of view.  The wife comes home from a hard day at work, or even a hard day at home with the kids and pours her hearth out.  The husband -- not knowing how to solve such a difficult "problem" just whimpers like a dog.  Or, the wife observes the husband all excited (perhaps even barking like a dog), but doesn't know what to say (e.g, "that's great, I appreciate that!") -- when the house is a mess.

There are practical things to learn before marriage and kids, and a good teacher (cat and/or dog), can help out, but perhaps too much.

And that's the real "rub."  One wonders if the reason for cat and dog is the husband seeks simplicity (cat), and the wife seeks someone who will actually listen (and do) -- the dog.

Barry Lynn