Thursday, January 30, 2014

Weather It Is (Oh those sunny days (go))

Good Afternoon:

The weather, one person remarked, is really quite fine.  I would and I do agree.

In fact, the weather will become even finer as we head into Shabbat.

However, early next week a strong storm should approach from the west and temperatures will drop off to more winter-like values throughout the country.  Rain should also arrive on moist westerly winds.  The rain could continue periodically over much of the week.

At the present time, though, there is uncertainty concerning the amounts of rain, but we'll hope for a good soaking (which is a good possibility).

The winter weather will remain just that: cold through the first couple of weeks of February. As for more rain or snow, nothing yet on the horizon after next week's storm.

Barry Lynn

Monday, January 27, 2014

Weather It Is (Winter Starts)

Good Morning:

Could one actually suggest that the start of winter is upon us?  If so, what was that giant storm of early December?

We see a distinct change in the weather pattern, which begins today with a storm that should affect the southern Arava (and Eilat).  The storm will draw moisture up from the south, leading to the possibility of some convective tropical showers.  The storm will then impact the northern areas of the country later today, as moisture and colder air arrives from the west.  By tomorrow, some of the moisture associated with this storm may make its way to the centre of the country.

The most interesting change in our weather pattern is that we can now see out almost two weeks.  Since mid-December, we've been impacted by small and less predictable changes in atmospheric circulation.  However, after this storm system,  we see a sharp rise in temperatures by week's end, to be followed by an equally and possibly larger drop off by mid-next week.  With the cold should come substantial rain, and there is a very small chance of snow (but nothing to hang our hats on yet).

Now that winter has returned, will it stay?

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Weather It Is (On the Up, then on the Down)

Good Afternoon:

We're going to seesaw a bit temperature wise during the next week, with a more significant mass of colder winter air arriving early next week.  This system, approaching from the west, will bring the possibility of rain.   This is contrast to the heavy snow and frigid temperatures forecast for the US east coast, including NYC.

The chance of rain early next week is about 80%, with amounts forecast to be 10 mm or greater in many locations.  However, this is really a drop in the drought bucket.

I've heard that the last time it was so dry was 1950, the same year it snowed in Tel-Aviv.  It was quite dry in 2010, but I believe that February and March turned out to be quite wet. Looking at the Climate Forecast System's temperature and precipitation forecast we see that it shows normal for February, March, and April. If we end up with just normal, then we're going to be far below normal precipitation wise for the season.

One person suggested that we might end the way we started, with half our season's rain amounts arriving (again) via Siberia -- which would be ideal if you like snow, and you'd like the snow to melt and run-off into our reservoirs, instead of the sea.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Weather It Is (Good Meteorologists...)

Good Afternoon:

Who takes notice of a weather blog when there is no weather?

Sometimes I feel like Douglas MacArthur: "Old Soldiers never day; they just fade away."  Whether he said this exactly or some reasonable facsimile, this is how I feel now.

It is the middle of winter but one would never know it.  True, there is a morning nip in the air, but even that will fade away as temperatures start to warm on Shabbat and don't stop until at least mid-next week.  Typical of this winter a weak storm will pass by tomorrow  to our north, and we'll probably not even notice it!

This is suppose to be prime time in Israel for weather blogging, but there is nothing to blog about except for noting that its easier to shoot missiles (from Gaza) when the weather cooperates.  True, we responded with our own tit-for-tat, but our own response is not really meant to do any harm, while their missiles are meant to kill as many of us as possible.

So, what should we expect in the next week or so: more blue skies, more pleasant breezes, and more missiles.

Looking about as far ahead as we can see, we notice the potential for rain towards the end of the month.  Will this too fade away?  We will see.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Weather It Is (Cirrostratus Clouds)

Good Evening:

One watches, and one watches but one see very little.

True, there will be a chance of rain at the end of the week as a weak disturbance heads our way.  True, there are some very severe and strong storms elsewhere (like England), but the storm track that feeds are winter'
 rains seems practically non-existent.  It's almost behaving like spring.  In fact, temperatures should rise by about 5 C over the next few days. 

Interestingly, there were some clouds we rarely see here.  They are call cirrostratus and they occur on the warm side of approaching low pressure areas. One wonders if these have simply advocated along the length of the Mediterranean or made there way from Africa.

Anyway, besides the potential for a spring rain, we'll be heading back down to more winter like temperatures.  Beyond about a week's time, we'll head back up temperature wise which will bring us to the last week in January.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Weather It Is (Do Things Ever Change?)

Good Afternoon:

If you ask the residents of the central and eastern United States, they will tell you "yes, things do change."  In fact, temperatures dropped by more than 50 F in just several hours, reminiscent of other great (but not very frequent) flash freezes.

As reported by the NY Times, "It began with the polar vortex, an elliptical-shaped pattern of frigid winds blowing west to east and centered on the North Pole... In the last week, though, a kink developed in the vortex’s winds, delivering arctic air to the Plains and the Midwest, forcing warmer air out of the way."
 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/07/nyregion/in-new-york-temperatures-fall-far-fast.html?hp

Perhaps, a similar kink in the polar vortex that (somewhat more frequently) leads to our unusually cold and snowy weather.

Yet, as time moves along into 2014, we see future rain chances fade away, as temperatures slowly oscillate from one system to another, but never too much, and without too much impact.

In fact, the next system that will impact our area is a "Classic-Red Sea Trough" seen on our weather maps (below) to affect the southern Arava (and vicinity) tomorrow. This is more reminiscent of spring.  The rain associated with this system may lead to flooding on the routes (paved or otherwise) into Eilat.

Still, we should not give up hope.  While it may not be true that a Butterfly flapping its winds literally affects the weather in Kansas (or Efrat), titanic shifts in the rules of human behaviour were just found in the Rimon of Efrat.  Could this be the impetus for further changes, but in the physical realm (of weather)?

There is a hard and fast rule that a long line at the Post Office (above) means a short line at the Pharmacy (below; and vice-versa).  Yet, today I was first in line at the Pharmacy and then first in line at the Post-Office.  I had so much time on my hands that I almost stopped to speak and tell  a neighbour -- but upon reflection, thought "better" of it.

Barry Lynn
P.S: Actually, he was on the phone.

Monday, January 6, 2014

Weather It Is (Fire near Efrat in the Winter!)

Good Afternoon:

We had a large fire that was put out by the local fire department.

Our fire forecast system (WRF-SFIRE) predicted that the fire would have spread to the nearby woods.

Below if a picture of the fire and the fire forecast.


Weather It Is (In Stride)

Good Afternoon:

There's not much happening, although temperatures will warm up by about 5 C as we approach mid-week.

The warm air will arrive ahead of the next storm system, which should bring cold temperatures aloft but relatively winter mild temperatures at the surface -- as the storm arrives from the west (transversing the sea).

The storm system will bring another chance of rain, but the timing of the system is not certain (other than that rain chances increase late Shabbat and Sunday).  The cooler weather should persist into mid-next week, but we should hesitate to project beyond this time.

No snow on the horizon.

Barry Lynn

Friday, January 3, 2014

Weather It Is (Winter, and more Winter)

Good Afternoon:

There is something reassuring about winter in wintertime.  Yet, for a while, it began to feel that we'd been forgotten.  Still, what did happen is not what we consider climatologically normal.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/stormy-december-washes-away-dry-start-to-winter/

Looking into our weather crystal ball, we see continued winter (cold or cool, depending upon location) continuing into mid-next week.  Then, the temperatures should head up a bit, before reversing course as both colder air and moisture moves in from the west.

Temperatures might fall enough aloft to lead to some wet snow mixed with rain, but right now we do not see any indication of a big (snowy) winter storm.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Weather It Is (More Rumours, More Questions)

Good Evening:

It's obvious to all that winter arrived, and that winter has "decided" to stay around.

The last storm brought periods of rain, and actually created flooding in areas down south.

All of our high resolution forecasts depend on the quality of the global model forecasts.  When these go bad, our forecasts go bad.  When these forecasts are good, our forecasts can be substantially better.
I've actually received some complaints about rain that fell early, or didn't fall at all.  We live in a small country and sometimes the weather systems that pass through are actually pretty small too, and they are not well resolved by the global models.  It's a little like trying to see the details without the bifocals.

Anyway, I keep hearing rumours -- in fact more than rumours -- that the next snow storm is just around the corner.  Yet, we don't live in NY (where they are expecting 5 to 10 inches), where the typical winter storm track brings the potential for a big snow.  Our big snows come from an atypical track that arrives from the north  (Siberia), passing over Turkey; otherwise, most storms come from the northern Europe, and pass over the sea, where the warm sea tends to mitigate any real cold.  Sometimes these western arriving storms bring lots of rain, but they are typically not -- as just noted -- as cold as their northern arriving cousins, and hence the potential for severe winter weather is less.

So, the rumours are just rumours, and the only thing we see is more winter cold and the potential for rain early next week.

Barry Lynn