Weather It Is (Where's the Weather?)

Good Evening:

What happens when the weatherman has writer's block?  I think it's pretty obvious: the weather simply stops happening.  Indeed, some of you just might have noticed the absence of weather, and I suppose that I should apologize.

Some of you have also noticed just how mild the weather has been.  The tree outside our front yard still hasn't lost its leaves -- they're as green as ever.  

As quoted here (https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-global-november-temperatures-reached-record-high-while-europe-experienced-its-warmest), 

"Copernicus Climate Change Service scientists report that globally, November 2020 was the warmest November since records began. Europe experienced its warmest autumn on record. Meanwhile, the Arctic region and sub-Arctic Siberia continued to be significantly warmer than average and sea ice in the region saw its second lowest November extent." 

That's bad news for those who were hoping for a "snowy" winter in our part of the world.  The cold air that brings us our snow originates in Siberia, and if that cold air is missing, then our hoped for snow will also be missing. Or, to put it another way: there's only so much cold air to go around, and there's less of it as the world has warmed and continues to warm in response to changes in climate forcings (like "Greenhouse" gases). 

It's also not good news for agriculture in our area -- the type that relies on a certain number of cold winter hours to produce abundant fruit come spring and summer. 

Might we take bets on wether our tree ever loses its leaves?  And if not, what will become of it as there will be no new leaves come spring?

All in all, the next week + looks simply cool, but not too cool, with plenty of sunshine as a ridge of high pressure builds our way.  

On one other note: go out and get your Coronavirus vaccine.  I've heard the argument that the new vaccines rely on an even newer technology, which is true -- but that doesn't make them dangerous.  In fact, if you believe so, you should ask yourself: which is more dangerous: to get the virus or the vaccine (which is and acts as a mimic of the real thing)?

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Ups and Downs)

 Good Afternoon:

Some nice and warm late fall weather, followed by a return to winter weather next week.

A weak wave of low pressure passed through our area Tuesday night.  It managed to stick around a bit longer than expected, bringing with some beautiful cloud formations. 

For quite some time I've worried that I might be soon out of the weather business.  As previously mentioned, the forecast for this winter was for much below normal precipitation amounts.  Since precipitation (and even the possibility of snow) is all people really care about here, what would a weatherman (or person) do in such a scenario?  

Another problem has been the lack of data feeding into the global models, as there are far fewer airplane flights than before the pandemic.  This includes the suspension of our (Bet Degan) radiosonde because of budget problems.   Last week, the global forecast was consistently off -- until the rains and thunderstorms arrived Friday night and Shabbat.  It got so bad that my daughter asked my wife what the weather would be, as if I wasn't sitting right next to her. 

The good news is that the weather is refusing to cooperate with the seasonal forecast or even the monthly forecast from the CFS V2 (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euPrecMonInd1.gif).  In fact, some approaching thunderstorms brought so much rain the fish could be seen swimming with umbrellas.

True, the next few days should see increasingly warm and sunny weather as a short ridge of high pressure builds ahead of an approaching storm.   But, the nice weather should last only into Sunday of next week, before the arrival of a strong cold front.

The storm and its accompanying cold front should barrel into our area from the Northwest, intensifying as cold air descends from the north.  The rain, strong winds, and thunderstorms should last from about Monday into Wednesday or even Thursday.  While not a winter storm more normally associated with late December or January, the rain amounts from this storm should go a

long way towards casting further doubt on the seasonal forecast.

Barry Lynn

 

Weather It Is (Storms Should Arrive)

 Good Afternoon:

A storm moving southward from Siberia will push into our area tonight and tomorrow.  

The global ensemble indicates a near 100% chance of rain and thunderstorms, which appear on our high resolution as areas of heavy rain of 50 to 75 mm over a twelve hour period.  The main location for the heavier rains should be center southward.  Where storms overlap, precipitation amounts could exceed 100 mm.

The storm should peak tomorrow, Shabbat afternoon, but rain should continue into Sunday.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Weather Notes)

Good Afternoon:

Possible heavy rains and thunderstorms, especially Shabbat.

The global forecast, upon which we base our high resolution forecast, has been quite inconsistent this week.

One possible reason is that the global forecasts are predicting a change in the North Atlantic Oscillation  (NAO) as well as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), but in opposite directions. 

A negative implies that a trough of low pressure will build much to our west.  A negative AO implies that cold air will remain locked up to the north, at least north of North America.  That means that some of this cold air is available to us, as storms moving southward from the cold reaches of Siberia.

In the next few days, two systems will interact. One to our west and one dropping down from the north.  If the one from the north succeeds to drop down from the north, it will lead to heavy rain and thunderstorms on Shabbat.

In the meanwhile, the storm to our west will slide slightly eastward, bringing some showers and possible Thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow (Friday) morning.

The lightning occurring with this western storm can be seen on the attached video.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn