Sunday, December 29, 2013

Weather It Is (Winter Continues)

The rain and cold will arrive late Monday.
Good Evening:

Rain will continue over the northern sections of the country as a storm develops off the coast.  A reinforcing push of winter air (cold. but not that cold) will arrive Tuesday, and should bring a pretty heavy rain to the centre as well.

Looking ahead, there will be a chance of showers, but the highlight will be continued cool (or cold) winter weather (possibly to the end of next week).

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Weather It Is (Sailing On -- Until the Wind Changes)

Good Evening:

The latest GFS ensemble forecast shows that we're headed for a return to winter.  But, first, we'll have a couple more pleasant days before the storm.

The storm should approach from the west on Shabbat.  Perhaps because the sea is still warm, this storm should be relatively cold at upper levels, but relatively warm at lower levels.

The temperature profiles indicate the possibility of wet snow Sunday night (at the highest elevations).  Otherwise, rain will arrive late Shabbat or Motzei Shabbat, and continue on and off until Monday.

You have to keep in mind that any snowflakes that make it to the ground will probably regret having taken the plunge from their safe haven up above, unless they are fortunate to land on a car (cars tend to be a bit colder than the air temperature).  In fact, they may all vanish before given the chance to melt quickly on the ground or find some respite on a colder surface like a car windshield.

The storm should pass, but the weather will remain winter cool.  Beyond mid-next week, the weather forecast shows very little of value, other than the possibility (but not likelihood) of some colder winter yet -- but it might be comparatively warm as well.

Barry Lynn


Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Weather It Is (Hanging On)

Good Afternoon:

Our late December "heat-wave" has arrived and will remain with us for a few more days.  It's not really a heat wave; but 11 C does feel a bit warmer than 7 C.

The pleasant weather will turn wet and cold late Shabbat/Sunday as a storm arrives from the west.  There is the possibility of wet snow with the rain, but this is just a possibility, and this storm will be more rain than snow, and not be particularly heavy.

Looking farther into our crystal forecast ball, we see the weather remaining cool for a few more days, before the fog of chaos veils our eyes.   Yet, there is one brave forecast-soul who would like to plunge us back into winter during the second week of January.  He's alone, and he's quite contrary to speak of snow, while the rest of his group (of 19) predict just about anything but.

Stay tuned,

Barry Lynn

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Weather It Is (A Tornado in Efrat)

Good Evening:

My daughter returned to the house shortly before 9 P.M on Monday December 9th.

Shortly thereafter, there was a large boom.  In the morning, she wrote to say that the fence in the backyard was broken.  Since, it is unlikely that a vandal came and broke the fence, this had to be weather related.  Note, the missing fence and the tree (centre) snapped in the middle of the picture.
Small tornadoes can snap trees.

One might think that this was only a very strong downburst, but then why is the damage so localised?

Regarding our weather: we're headed up temperature wise, as I mentioned.  The weather will change on the 27th, and rain should arrive on Shabbat or early next week. There is a 10% chance of wet snow with the next event, but (as noted), this storm is approaching from over the sea, so we don't expect a cold snow like we had last week.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Tornado in Efrat?)

Good Evening:

My daughter returned to the house shortly before 9 P.M on Monday December 9th.

Shortly thereafter, there was a large boom.  In the morning, she wrote to say that the fence in the backyard was broken.  Since, it is unlikely that a vandal came and broke the fence, this had to be weather related.  Note, the missing fence and the tree (centre) snapped in the middle of the picture.
Small tornadoes can snap trees.

One might think that this was only a very strong downburst, but then why is the damage so localised?

Regarding our weather: we're headed up temperature wise, as I mentioned.  The weather will change on the 27th, and rain should arrive on Shabbat or early next week. There is a 10% chance of wet snow with the next event, but (as noted), this storm is approaching from over the sea, so we don't expect a cold snow like we had last week.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Weather It Is (Weather Changes; Please Understand)

Good evening:

Temperatures will be moderating during the next few days, and the mountains of snow will be reduced to small hills.

My mid-week, though, the weather will begin to change, with possibly a shower, some temperature up and downs, and then we should be headed down, as the weather turns wet.  At this time, there are a wide range of forecast amounts, depending on the forecast strength of the storm.   This storm will be arriving from the west, which means that the air will be moderating as it moves eastward -- so there is only a slight chance of wet snow.

It is hard to write a blog for mixed company.  I need to women to understand that I can't always be right, while the men need to appreciate that forecasts can never be 100% accurate.

We all know that men need appreciation, and women need understanding.  While it is possible for men to act with understanding (e.g, take out the garbage without being asked), it is very hard for men to express understanding.  In fact, unless there is a problem to be solved, men would prefer to keep quiet.

The problem began right before the snow storm when our air conditioning unit broke, and temperatures began to fall both inside the house (upstairs) and out.  I did my best to fix the problem: I called the repair man, but (unfortunately) they ran out of parts to change and the upstairs remained in the deep freeze.

This is especially a problem for my wife because she's from Israel and Israelis don't sleep with tucked in sheets.  In contrast, holding fast to my traditions, I always sleep tucked in so I was able to generate bubbles of heat under the covers.

After a week plus of cold winter like temperatures, my wife had finally had enough, and I got an ear full. Trying to be on my best behaviour, I said things like: "yes, it's really cold."  "Yes, it is really aggravating" (it sounds better in Hebrew).

This went on for about ten minutes, when my wife looked at me, and politely suggested that I wasn't being serious.

This goes to show that those lying in comfort (even in a cold room) should not speak, or perhaps men shouldn't speak unless they really have something to say.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Weather It Is (Frozen and Icy Roads)

Good Evening:

Subject: icy roads.

The temperatures have warmed a bit, but there is still plenty of snow in the higher elevations.

The snow radiates heat quite well, cooling, which then cools the overlying air.

Tonight we're predicting a couple of degrees above freezing.  So, why are roads freezing and why will there be wet patches that are really ice when we wake in the morning?

The reason is two fold: first, the surface cools more than the air temperature, and second, the dew point (or air humidity) is very low.  The dew point is the atmospheric temperature (varying according to pressure and humidity) below which water droplets begin to condense and dew can form.  For us, it means that water from the roads will evaporate, and when they do, they will use energy and cool the surface. Eventually, enough water molecules (yes, it is the combined efforts of many) evaporate that any standing water freezes.

I don't expect this too happen too early in the evening, but sometime in the dark of night, when most of us are already tucked in bed, icy patches will form, and the roads in these areas will become extremely dangerous to drive on, or even walk.

Now, here's the worst of it all: today was a bit warmer during the day than yesterday, so there is a lot of water on the roads.  Moreover, the sun is late to rise, so the ice will be late to melt.  Perhaps, those in high places we should consider to take the day off the already short day of school?

Looking ahead, temperatures will hold steady for a few days and then head sharply upwards mid-next week, before falling off. There is a 40% chance of rain to end the new year, with only a very small chance of any frozen precipitation.

Barry Lynn


Weather It Is (Up and Down)

Good Morning:

We've still got plenty of snow on the ground, and it is a week after the storm began.

We see no change in the weather for a few days, but then we're going to head up by about 5 degrees, hang there for a day or so, and then head (one might even say "plunge") down, and end up close to where we are now.

However, the next round of more winter like weather has about a 30% chance of bringing rain, and very small chance of some wet snow.  There is one forecast (out of 20) that shows substantial amounts of precipitation.  It comes with the coldest and wintriest weather.  Yet, it is not part of a trend, but just one voice out of many that really don't know what "they" would like say about the weather as we reach the end of this year and head into next's.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Weather It Is (Rumors)

Good morning:

The weather is warming up!  Warm air will be nosing its way northward from the south. While it won't feel balmy, it will feel warmer.  In fact, the weather pattern may look a little bit like spring.

In about a week's time, the forecast becomes less certain.  There is a small chance of rain mixed with hail, but more likely will be some rain towards the end of the year.

Looking into the very early new year doesn't show us anything of real interest. In fact, we may end up just back we're at now temperature wise, but with a bit more rain to greet the new year.

As for the rumour of the impending monster of a storm, three times bigger than our current storm?  It's exciting to spread the rumour.

Barry Lynn


Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Weather It Is (The Weather Matters)

Good Morning:

I can see by the number of people reading the blog and visiting the weather site that the weather is of interest and it does matter -- at least when there is weather of real impact.

Speaking of non-interesting weather, the snow will melt over the next few days and then it will all begin to feel like a distant memory.  Temperatures will most likely moderate by at least several degrees, and the skies should be pretty sunny, except for some high clouds during the next few days. 

It looks like there will be relatively little to report the rest of this week and next!  This should make some happy.

Just a couple of notes: i) we've hopefully fixed the problem in our forecasts that occurred when we forecast surface temperatures over snow.  We've changed to a difference atmospheric surface layer model, a more advanced version of an old (apparently more reliable) one.  We'll have to see how this goes.  ii) Something to note: the wet road freezes under clear skies even if air temperatures are a bit above freezing, because the surface radiates heat into the near surface air.  The sun and air temperature can melt the ice, but melting requires heat, which can delay the warming of the roads an hour or two until after the thermometer reads above freezing.

Tonight should be a tad warmer than last night, so perhaps we'll get by without a hard freeze.  Still, icy locations should persist in some areas.

Barry Lynn
See why no one is driving.


Monday, December 16, 2013

Weather It Is (A Recap and Looking Forward)

Good Morning:

It's Monday December 16th (two days after my Hebrew Birthday and 11 days before my English birthday -- of 50!).  I grew up in NY and I remember the big snow storms of 1978 last lasted a day and a half.  Ours lasted 3 days (with a break during the day on Friday to prepare for Shabbat).  It was hard to measure the snow exactly, but here in Efrat we had 10 cm on Thursday, cm inches on Thursday night, and 41 cm Friday night into Shabbat morning (for a total of 66 cm).  This works out to about two feet of snow, exceeding by a bit the big storms that I remember from when I was just 15 years old.

Folks say that this storm was as large as or even larger than the ones they remember from 1992, but they also say that back then (when their fathers walked up-hill both ways to school in the freezing cold) that the cold lasted two weeks.

I measured 187.5 mm of rain in the gauge (which is 12 inches in length).  This fell from Wednesday the 6th until the night of the 11th of December. I just melted down one gauge full of snow: it came out to another 87.5 mm. The snow was a bit compact, having sat on the ground for a day or two, so it is hard to know whether I should double this amount (to arrive at 2 feed) to account for the first snow we had that was compacted over the first two days (in retrospect, I probably should have).  So, lets say that we had at least 275 mm of liquid equivalent precipitation, and possibly as much 350 mm.

These amounts (from one storm!) are at least half the winter's "normal" (annual) amount!!!

The temperatures have dropped to freezing again, and we're frozen in -- still waiting for the roads to be cleared. The more snow there is, the harder it is to clear -- it has to be moved and lifted.  Yesterday, it took about half a day to melt the snow in my gauge, even though it was indoors at 70 F.  Yesterday, it reached only into the low 40s.  Yes, the snow will probably disappear over time, and yet, I want to bring to your attention another mechanism for "melting" the snow: it is called sublimation (my wife pointed it out), and you can see the snow evaporating (without melting first) into the dry air just off our porch.  It occurs when the sun heats the snow.

Considering that we are very close to the shortest day of the year (The winter "Solstice"), this snow (unlike late January or February storms) won't be in a hurry to sublimate.  Hence, we'll have to wait for rain to melt the snow (or just warm temperatures).  Temperatures should indeed moderate to more normal levels during the next week or so (and perhaps even above normal).

Speaking of rain, an upper air disturbance should approach in a couple of days, but it will bring only clouds.  Looking head to the end of next week, some light rain is possible as temperatures should remain relatively mild.

In other words, after having had half of winter in a week, we're going to take a break.

Barry Lynn







Friday, December 13, 2013

Weather It Is (Winds Should Change…)

Good Afternoon:

We're expecting the winds to change from the Southwest to a more Northwesterly direction.  As this happens during the afternoon, snow should redevelop over the central mountains and in the area of Sefat.

The storm should peak tonight, and taper off tomorrow morning. Snow amounts should be greater than 10 cm in the central mountains, with as much as 25 cm possible. In the area of Sefat, the amounts should be around 10 cm.

The weather will moderate following the storm (but not warm up).  Next week may bring rain, with a small possibility of snow (at the moment) as well.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Weather It Is (Heavy Snow Warning)

Good Evening:

The cold weather came in as forecast (Thank God), and turned the rain to snow in the higher elevations of the Galilee, Jerusalem, and Gush Etzion by early Thursday morning.  The cold will deepen tonight over the northeastern Mediterranean sea and the upper level trough (at 500 mb) will then move slowly southeastward during the day. As it does so, temperatures will drop at upper levels here, and this will strengthen a low pressure at the surface that will should bury today's snow under an even heavier snowfall late Friday and Friday night.

Between 50 to 100 mm of precipitation amounts are forecast for the central coast and central mountains.  Lesser amounts of precipitation will occur over the north and south, but still potentially cause flooding in low lying areas.

Most importantly, with the cold entrenched, this just might translate into greater than 50 cm of snow in the central mountains.  One might expect that the warm sea might hold down snow amounts by warming the lower atmosphere.  However, the cold is deep enough to take advantage of the copious amounts of moisture evaporating off the warm sea, transported upwards into the atmosphere and deposited as snow over the mountains.  So, this is an unusual situation: we have the precipitation amounts of an early season storm, but the cold of January.

The timeline and a couple of notes. Snow will be heavy at times tonight and tomorrow morning, accumulating around 25 cm by mid-day Friday.  Late in the afternoon, the snow will become even heavier, with possible white-out conditions, and accumulate between 25 and 50 cm more by Saturday morning.

The snow will taper off during the day, and the storm will be gone by Sunday, and be followed by a period of more tranquil weather.

Note 1: We're investigating some predictions for unusually cold temperatures. This is happening in areas covered with snow, but we don't think it realistic.

Note 2: My daughter would like some credit for the snow.  She asked me a few weeks ago if it could snow at Chanukah.  I said it could, but it wasn't likely (as Chanukah this year was  rather early in the season).  Sometimes, to succeed, one must simply ask a questions.

Barry Lynn


Weather It Is (No Change)

The winter part of our storm is arriving now (midnight and on), and will turn rain to snow in the higher elevations.

The storm's impact should last into Shabbat, with potentially very heavy snow again late Friday and Friday night.

It will be cold, windy, and wet -- don't be caught out without proper clothing for the cold.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Weather It Is (Update on Winter Storm)

Latest forecast guidance suggests that snow should start in Jerusalem and Gush Etzion during the night, and probably accumulate in both areas by morning. We'll up the snow amounts to 5-10 cm in Jerusalem by evening, and 10-15 cm in Gush Etzion.

Good Afternoon:

It seems like January, but it is only early December.  We've spoken so much about this storm that there is not very much we can add.

However, the latest forecast brings a changeover towards snow late at night, with the possibility of a slushy accumulation towards morning, especially in high elevations (like Gush Etzion).

Temperatures drop during the day on Thursday, will will turn the wet snow to a drier snow.  The first shot of really cold air peaks during the night towards Friday morning.  This is when a fluffy, dry snow could accumulate substantially.

A second period of snow moves in late Friday, and precipitation (mostly snow) from this system should continue into late in the day.

We're quite certain about the cold temperatures.  However, predicting actual snow amounts is tricky because a variation in temperature of 1 C (both at the surface and aloft) can make a difference. Here is our best estimate of the totals.

Jerusalem:
Wednesday night (a trace)
Thursday 2-5 cm
Thursday night into Friday 10-25 cm
Friday night into Shabbat 25-50 cm

Gush Etzion
Wednesday Night 1 - 2 cm
Thursday 5-10 cm
Thursday Night into Friday 10-25 cm
Friday Night into Shabbat 25-50 cm.

Sefad:

(Temperatures are near freezing, so we're having trouble estimating)

Wednesday Night (a trace)
Thursday 5-10 cm, depending on elevation
Thursday Night into Friday; Possibility for heavy snow.
Friday Night into Shabbat: heavy snow.

Weather It Is (Winter Storm/Weather Warning)

Good Afternoon:

It seems like January, but it is only early December.  We've spoken so much about this storm that there is not very much we can add.

However, the latest forecast brings a changeover towards snow late at night, with the possibility of a slushy accumulation towards morning, especially in high elevations (like Gush Etzion).

Temperatures drop during the day on Thursday, will will turn the wet snow to a drier snow.  The first shot of really cold air peaks during the night towards Friday morning.  This is when a fluffy, dry snow could accumulate substantially.

A second period of snow moves in late Friday, and precipitation (mostly snow) from this system should continue into late in the day.

We're quite certain about the cold temperatures.  However, predicting actual snow amounts is tricky because a variation in temperature of 1 C (both at the surface and aloft) can make a difference. Here is our best estimate of the totals.

Jerusalem:
Wednesday night (a trace)
Thursday 2-5 cm
Thursday night into Friday 10-25 cm
Friday night into Shabbat 25-50 cm

Gush Etzion
Wednesday Night 1 - 2 cm
Thursday 5-10 cm
Thursday Night into Friday 10-25 cm
Friday Night into Shabbat 25-50 cm.

Sefad:

(Temperatures are near freezing, so we're having trouble estimating)

Wednesday Night (a trace)
Thursday 5-10 cm, depending on elevation
Thursday Night into Friday; Possibility for heavy snow.
Friday Night into Shabbat: heavy snow.

Weather It Is (Winter Weather/Storm Warning)

An early good morning:

We're on track for a major winter storm to impact our area during the next few days.

Snow becomes possible in the mountain areas when the near-surface temperatures (850 mb), lower- levels (700 mb), and mid-levels (500 mb) are colder than -1 C, -10 C, and -25 C, respectively. Temperatures in the mountains will fall rapidly Wednesday night.  Temperatures will become "critical" for a change over to snow as morning approaches.  These critical temperatures will be reached around 8 in morning on Thursday.

We expect wet snow to accumulate by sometime around noon on Thursday as temperatures at the previously mentioned atmospheric levels continue to drop.  The snow should  then transition to a dry snow Thursday night as temperatures at 700 mb reach close to -12 C, and at 500 mb to about -30 C.  Temperatures will be as low as -13 C and -32 C at 700 mb, and 500 mb, respectively by mid-day Friday, very conducive to a dry, accumulating snow.

The latest (18 GMT) GFS forecast is indicating heavy precipitation in the central mounts Thursday night into Friday, but our on-line forecast shows a break at night. Considering that there is a strong consensus from the 18 GMT ensemble that the storm's lowest temperatures will occur at all levels Thursday night into Friday morning, we lean towards the snow continuing into Friday (and this may be reflected in the next weekly forecast update to appear on the site).

There is about an 80% chance that temperatures will remain cool enough for more snow, which will continue until late Shabbat day, and we are expecting additional high precipitation amounts late Friday into late Saturday (Shabbat).

This is a very dangerous storm, with high winds, and heavy rain at lower levels, and snow at higher elevations.  Don't plan to travel in areas of snow, and be careful of wet roads, and blown objects or falling trees at lower elevations.

The following week may see another storm, but there is no consensus yet.

Barry Lynn



Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Weather It Is (A Winter Blast)

Good Evening:

The latest update (18 UTC 9 December 2013) strongly indicates that the cold air will come in sooner than in previous forecasts, and last longer than previous forecasts.  Basically the smaller probabilities that the cold air would arrive by early Thursday morning have become large probabilities.  The relatively small probability that the first storm would be followed by another storm on Shabbat has become a large probability.

The coldest air is certainly (and still) suppose to arrive towards Thursday evening, and this should transition the snow to a dry, accumulating snow.  Yet, rain may change over to wet snow early Thursday morning and accumulate during the day.  The snow should accumulate quite substantially Thursday night, into Friday.  There may transition into light snow of flurries late Friday, only to return more heavily on Shabbat.

This is a major and dangerous winter storm that should be proceeded on Wednesday by heavy rain and strong winds, with thunderstorms, and possibly hail.  Snow levels should lower (at least by nightfall) into the Jerusalem area and accumulate their as well.  The greatest snow amounts will likely be in Gush Etzion and the Galilee hills, not to mention the Golan.

After this storms, we are seeing an indication of another cold winter storm the following week; we're looking at a 20% chance now that another winter storm will follow next week as well.

I realise that we're only at late Monday, but the ensemble is indicating very high probabilities that winter will make one of its earliest snowy entrances in years.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, December 8, 2013

Weather It Is (Winter Storm)

Good Evening:

It's certainly the coldest and largest storm to impact our area this winter, and it rivals (or even supersedes in some ways) the storm of January 2013 - and it is only early December.

Today, we're feeling the second stage of this storm with heavy rain producing flooding rain.

The bulk of the cold, arctic air will begin its plunge southward on Wednesday, and bring heavy, heavy rain with strong winds (snow on the Hermon).  On Thursday, temperatures should drop quickly during the day and then drop even more at night.  Snow should reach into the central mountains and other mountain tops throughout the country.

There is (and will always be) some uncertainty about snow amounts, but the coldest air at upper levels should arrive late in the day, and there could be a reinforcing shot of cold air Friday night into Shabbat. This is when wet snow is more likely to become a drier more accumulating snow (but roads can still turn icy during the day on Thursday).

The forecast continues to evolve, and right now we're looking at a 75% probability that the winter event will be just what we're calling for -- a storm to rival last year's snow event, or even more.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter's Break)

Good Morning:

What a difference a week makes.  We were moving along day to day without any rain or any particularly cold weather, and this seemed to change in an instance.

Actually, we saw signs of the change about a week or so prior, and the high clouds of early last week were the harbinger of the change that would occur by mid-week.

In one sense, there is a lot certainty.  It is going to get colder, and today's rain will be replaced my mid-week by an even heavier rain and even colder temperatures. We're certain about the cold, but we can't be certain yet about how much snow will fall and stick (as if we are ever certain about the "stick" part in the Jerusalem area and higher mountains of the Galilee).  Yet, it does appear that temperatures should be cold enough for wet snow sometime on Thursday, and that the greatest likelihood for a drier and accumulating snow if for the afternoon (and especially at night).

We'll have to wait until the day before to really see these details more clearly.

How is this unusually cold air consistent with the "global warming?"  Think of the onset of winter as a battle between the winds of summer/fall and the unsettled (and wavy) pattern of winter. The warmer the temperatures in the lower latitudes the stronger the blocking patter for the onset of winter.  However, once the winter breaks, it breaks more deeply like water flowing through a broken dam (the wave pattern of the trough is deeper).  The amount of cold also depends on just how the winter pattern enters our area.  Right now, it is suppose to enter from the north, which reduces the sea's influence on warming of the lower atmosphere. At the same time, as the system retrogrades over the sea, the sea is still quite warm, so moisture will flow into the system, spinning up an unusually potent storm.

Barry Lynn

Friday, December 6, 2013

Weather It Is (The Drama Deepens)

Good (late) afternoon:

A brief note.  The forecast is trending towards colder and wetter, with almost 70% of the ensemble members indicating the likelihood of frozen precipitation (most likely wet snow changing to a drier and colder snow) late Thursday into Shabbat.

We'll (hopefully) know with greater certainty after Shabbat.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Thursday, December 5, 2013

Weather It Is (Winter Continues, And A Storm BrewsGood Evening: Cold air moving in with the first winter storm will move by and be replaced by a slightly warmer air mass (but very unlike the warmth of just a couple days ago). Another shot of cold winter air will arrive early next week, and bring another bout of rain. Then, all eyes will turn to the storm that could sweep down from the north and then amplify a larger and ferocious storm just off the Mediterranean coast. Our ensemble is showing a 50% chance of this happening from mid-week onwards, and the storm could potentially last several days. What do we mean by a 50% chance? We mean that in any winter with a similar weather pattern a very stormy and potentially snowy weather pattern should develop half the time. So stay tuned! Barry Lynn)

Good Evening:

Cold air moving in with the first winter storm will move by and be replaced by a slightly warmer air mass (but very unlike the warmth of just a couple days ago).  Another shot of cold winter air will arrive early next week, and bring another bout of rain.

Then, all eyes will turn to the storm that could sweep down from the north and then amplify a larger and ferocious storm just off the Mediterranean coast.  Our ensemble is showing a 50% chance of this happening from mid-week onwards, and the storm could potentially last several days.

What do we mean by a  50% chance?  We mean that in any winter with a similar weather pattern a very stormy and potentially snowy weather pattern should develop half the time.  So stay tuned!

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Weather It Is (Winter Has Arrived)

Good Afternoon:

After a few days of anticipation, winter has arrived.  Rain showers have dotted the country, and rain intensities should pick up quite substantially as we head into tonight and tomorrow.

The stormy pattern will continue throughout next week, and there is still the potential for snow towards the end of next week.

Speaking of potential, what we're really speaking about is probabilities. For several days, snow was possible at the start of the week, but the 30% probability transitioned into just rain.  Right now, there is a 40% possibility that of snow late next week.

Drive carefully on wet roads!

Happy Chanukah,

Barry Lynn

Monday, December 2, 2013

Weather It Is (Will Sleigh Bells Ring?)

Good Evening.

The weather has certainly been strange; in fact, we've had one of the driest winters on record
(http://www.timesofisrael.com/so-far-israel-experiencing-driest-winter-in-70-years/).  Yet, winter will soon enter stage left, and enter with a vengeance.

Despite the warmth, my daughter asked me the other day if it could snow during Chanukah.  Some kids ask their fathers why is the sky blue (not at night) or if the world is really round (not when you go to the beach), but I get asked: "will it snow?"

We know with high confidence that it will get very cold and we know that the drought should end.  What we don't know is if the drought will end with an exclamation point, or if it will snow.

As of the 6 GMT forecast (1/12/2013), we can see that there is a 25% chance of a real snow -- even this early in the season. The problem is that we all have high hopes, but when push comes to shove, the probabilities are what they are, and they are going to have to change.  For instance, in the next few days, we might go from a 25% chance of snow to near 100% chance, or we may go to a zero percent chance. The interesting thing is that the snow chances and extreme cold have been pretty constant for the last few days, so what ever signal the GFS ensemble is picking up is pretty consistent from run to run and a pretty significant one.

Who knows what will be tomorrow morning -- you can look on our site under GEFS forecast. Check out the 850 mb temperatures and see if they are below freezing, at least by a couple of degrees.

Happy Chanukah,

Barry Lynn

Sunday, December 1, 2013

Weather It Is (A Couple of Days)

Good morning:

The cold and rainy weather is coming, but we'll still have a couple of days before we really begin to feel that the weather is changing.  Of course, we might notice the high clouds out ahead of the approaching system…

We're getting indications that this will be a two part storm, with the first batch of rain rain followed by even colder and wetter weather.  We're still seeing the potential for snow late in the week or early next week, but this is just a small chance.

You can see from the 850 mb temperature forecast the huge drop in temperatures as we move past the first couple of days of the forecast. You can see that some of the ensemble members are even forecasting temperatures similar to those we experienced last January.

The forecast precipitation amounts reflect this winter scenario.

(These forecasts can be seen under the GEFS forecast link.)

Happy Chanukah.