Good Evening:
We're expecting some big swings in our temperatures. A trough of low pressure will soon be replaced by a ridge of high pressure, which will build into our area on Friday.
The Global Ensemble Forecast (GEFS) indicates a high certainty of unseasonably hot weather. Our local weather model indicates that temperature should peak from the lower 30s (central mountain areas) to upper 30s along the coast, and normally hotter desert areas.
The heat will be short-lived, though, as Monday should be substantially cooler as a trough of lower pressure returns. The seven days of Peach should have moderate temperatures with local showers. Moisture will be present at lower and upper levels, but humidity levels in the middle atmosphere will not be high enough to bring any prolonged heavy rain.
It's some big swings in our temperatures, and residents are advised to be sure that their air conditioners are in working order -- as the heat will be intense in some areas.
It's fortunate that I am keeping track of the weather. Since I became home-bound with the rest of you, I have trouble remembering the days of the week. Now, since the clock changed, I can't seem to figure out what hour it is.
I read an article in the Jerusalem Post the other day entitled "Back to Work." The authors tried to tell us that the Coronavirus is really not much to worry about, while falsely referring to a much lower mortality rate than the apparent mortality rate. One can argue that we don't really know of all those that are sick, so therefore we don't really know the mortality rate, but try telling that to a emergency room doctor in NYC, where hospitals are overrun with patients (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?). Simply, the CoronaVirus is terrible contagious and has made even younger people very sick (or worse).
One of the points of the article was that there is a cost to closing the economy that is yet (mostly) uncounted, and this is true. However, in order to calculate whether to open the economy one needs to weigh the risks to health and life against the other costs. This should be done -- and targeted openings should be considered -- but only by those who actually recognise the severity of the disease.
To sum up: there are those who hate "big government," and government regulations, but as the United States has clearly shown, too little government and too little planning is simply too little government too late (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-ventilator-shortage.html? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/testing-coronavirus-pandemic.html?).''
One last thing to note: hand washing, wearing gloves while shopping, etc, and covering your face have been recently shown to be the best protection of all (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/health/us-coronavirus-face-masks.html).
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Weather It Is (Severe Storms On the Horizon)
Good Morning/Early Afternoon:
Highlights: Alternating days of warmth and chill, followed by end of the week severe storms.
We're a few days past our last storm, which brought unusually cold weather to most of the country. Precipitation fell steadily late date into Shabbat, with rain mixing with snow late Friday night in the higher elevations of the central and northern mountains. It was, alas, fleeting, unlike our winter rains.
Our next storm should arrive either Thursday or Friday, with a sharp drop in temperatures (but not close to freezing like our last storm). It will be the result of a storm moving across northern Africa combining with a low of polar Origins moving southward past Italy. This will provide the storm with two ingredients: plenty of moisture from the Mediterranean and African dust as the storm makes its way past Cyprus.
Our previous storm moved across northern Africa, and subsequently left destruction across Egypt and flooding across southern Israel with greater than 100 km winds from south to north. This storm will take a more northerly track, and swing past Cyprus -- hence, coastal cities are more likely to see direct impacts from this storm, including strong winds, lightning/hail, and heavy rains.
There are still timing questions and the exact path of the storm is still not certain, so an update will be issued later in the week.
What is even more uncertain is what day of the week is it? I find myself thinking that Monday is Tuesday or some other day is another day that already passed. It's very difficult when one doesn't have a set schedule to remember what part of the week one is in.
While trying to figure out what day it is, I thought it worthwhile to review some numbers. Not too long ago, about 1 out of 70,000 Israelis were sick. Now it's officially one out of six thousand. For this reason, the government has instituted social distancing, which is more or less! being observed. One of the ideas was to limit group gatherings and now up to 10 people can pray in a Minyon. The thing is that the numbers we know of are probably an underestimation of the people sick because each infected person infects two to three people (https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common), while in comparison the flu infects about half that number (https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html). Moreover, if 10 people get together, there is approximately a 1/100 to 1/1000 chance of one person getting sick, and since there are probably more than 1000 prayer groups in a day, there is a very good chance that at least 1 person will get sick and infect at least 2 to 3 others. So, a small chance for each of us can have a large eventual impact on all of us.
Ways to slow down (or even stop) the infection of others is to stay at home if you have symptoms (cough, sneezing, or sore throat) and wear a mask if you must go out; additionally wash your hands frequently and stay at least 2 meters from other people. You can also wear disposable gloves, but change these frequently, and don't touch your face! Don't think you are immune because your a teenager or still "young" (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/opinion/coronavirus-young-people.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage). Here is a website that sums up these suggestions (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/prevention.html).
Another way, is to have a wife who decides to make a shining example of a bath tub. So was she proud of her cleaning prowess that she required me to immediately supine within. We actually installed this tub a while ago, but I have to admit that my enthusiasm for baths does not compete with other time dependent obligations. So, after donning my best bathing suit, there I was supining and contemplating the time spent from my last bath and considering just where I was and where I came from.
I started with my toes. They still reach the end of the tub, meaning I haven't shrunk too much since I previously measured my length is such a way. I also noted that there were not too many grey hairs, which was reassuring. But, I also noted that it is hard to tell that my belly button is an "outie." Most people have an "innie," but for some reason I am not like most people. My mother said that the doctor who delivered me regularly gave all "his" children a different knot than other doctors, but I wonder if he was simply bored and decided that day and time to do something different.
Or, maybe he took one look at me and decided that this child might be a bit shy and would need something to speak about when normal conversation fails. Yet, I never found that discussing belly buttons was much of a conversation starter, but more like a conversation finisher, unless I was having a bath with one of my brothers. In fact, I gave it up as a topic of conversation by the time I met my wife and never mentioned it to her.
I still haven't, and I am not sure she every noticed. After all, one doesn't necessarily see what one doesn't expect, and childhood worries are best left in childhood.
Barry Lynn
Highlights: Alternating days of warmth and chill, followed by end of the week severe storms.
We're a few days past our last storm, which brought unusually cold weather to most of the country. Precipitation fell steadily late date into Shabbat, with rain mixing with snow late Friday night in the higher elevations of the central and northern mountains. It was, alas, fleeting, unlike our winter rains.
Our next storm should arrive either Thursday or Friday, with a sharp drop in temperatures (but not close to freezing like our last storm). It will be the result of a storm moving across northern Africa combining with a low of polar Origins moving southward past Italy. This will provide the storm with two ingredients: plenty of moisture from the Mediterranean and African dust as the storm makes its way past Cyprus.
Our previous storm moved across northern Africa, and subsequently left destruction across Egypt and flooding across southern Israel with greater than 100 km winds from south to north. This storm will take a more northerly track, and swing past Cyprus -- hence, coastal cities are more likely to see direct impacts from this storm, including strong winds, lightning/hail, and heavy rains.
There are still timing questions and the exact path of the storm is still not certain, so an update will be issued later in the week.
What is even more uncertain is what day of the week is it? I find myself thinking that Monday is Tuesday or some other day is another day that already passed. It's very difficult when one doesn't have a set schedule to remember what part of the week one is in.
While trying to figure out what day it is, I thought it worthwhile to review some numbers. Not too long ago, about 1 out of 70,000 Israelis were sick. Now it's officially one out of six thousand. For this reason, the government has instituted social distancing, which is more or less! being observed. One of the ideas was to limit group gatherings and now up to 10 people can pray in a Minyon. The thing is that the numbers we know of are probably an underestimation of the people sick because each infected person infects two to three people (https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common), while in comparison the flu infects about half that number (https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html). Moreover, if 10 people get together, there is approximately a 1/100 to 1/1000 chance of one person getting sick, and since there are probably more than 1000 prayer groups in a day, there is a very good chance that at least 1 person will get sick and infect at least 2 to 3 others. So, a small chance for each of us can have a large eventual impact on all of us.
Ways to slow down (or even stop) the infection of others is to stay at home if you have symptoms (cough, sneezing, or sore throat) and wear a mask if you must go out; additionally wash your hands frequently and stay at least 2 meters from other people. You can also wear disposable gloves, but change these frequently, and don't touch your face! Don't think you are immune because your a teenager or still "young" (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/opinion/coronavirus-young-people.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage). Here is a website that sums up these suggestions (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/prevention.html).
Another way, is to have a wife who decides to make a shining example of a bath tub. So was she proud of her cleaning prowess that she required me to immediately supine within. We actually installed this tub a while ago, but I have to admit that my enthusiasm for baths does not compete with other time dependent obligations. So, after donning my best bathing suit, there I was supining and contemplating the time spent from my last bath and considering just where I was and where I came from.
I started with my toes. They still reach the end of the tub, meaning I haven't shrunk too much since I previously measured my length is such a way. I also noted that there were not too many grey hairs, which was reassuring. But, I also noted that it is hard to tell that my belly button is an "outie." Most people have an "innie," but for some reason I am not like most people. My mother said that the doctor who delivered me regularly gave all "his" children a different knot than other doctors, but I wonder if he was simply bored and decided that day and time to do something different.
Or, maybe he took one look at me and decided that this child might be a bit shy and would need something to speak about when normal conversation fails. Yet, I never found that discussing belly buttons was much of a conversation starter, but more like a conversation finisher, unless I was having a bath with one of my brothers. In fact, I gave it up as a topic of conversation by the time I met my wife and never mentioned it to her.
I still haven't, and I am not sure she every noticed. After all, one doesn't necessarily see what one doesn't expect, and childhood worries are best left in childhood.
Barry Lynn
Friday, March 20, 2020
Weather It Is (Cold and Becoming Snowy)
Good Morning:
The storm system continues to strength and move ever closer to us on our latest forecasts. Here is our forecast from our highest resolution forecast.
1) Temperatures in the lower single digits to near freezing in the higher elevations of the central and northern mountains. Temperatures in the upper single digits along coastal areas.
2) Accumulating snow only on the Hermon.
3) Periods of snow in the afternoon and evening in Safed; with a coating possible on colder surfaces Periods of snow in the central mountains tonight into Shabbat Morning. A coating is again possible. Snow in the Golan this afternoon and night; a coating of snow is possible.
4) Some thunderstorms tonight as the coldest air moves in.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Thursday, March 19, 2020
Weather It Is (Snow Cold?)
Good Evening:
1) Winter Cold into Sunday Morning
2) Periods of rain and thunderstorms with hail.
3) Snow possible on the higher peaks, including Jerusalem late Friday night into Shabbat Morning.
4) Flooding possible in east central and southern areas.
5) Strong early storm possible late next week.
Some of you might remember that winter didn't really start until the last week of December. But, soon after that there were 5 successive storms that led to severe flooding in many areas. Then, contrary to the seasonal forecasts issued for January, February, and March, the wet weather continued until now, and the last week of March looks especially rainy.
With our unusually cold and rainy weather this week comes an unusual weather map for this time of year. There is high pressure over England and high pressure over Siberia. In between there are areas of low pressure moving from west to east across the Mediterranean. As we wrote about last time, one of them has rejoined with the polar front and stalled in our area. Cold air continues to seep into this system from Siberia, and as we have moved closer to Shabbat forecasts have progressively turned colder, including the latest 12 UTC Global Ensemble Forecast System.
Cold air in the lower atmosphere (at 850 mb) will arrive tonight, while colder air in the middle atmosphere (700 mb) will arrive tomorrow (Friday). The upper level cold at 500 mb should arrive Friday night and temperatures at 500 mb should approach -30 Celcius towards morning. Because this cold air is arriving at night, conditions will be ideal for cooling temperatures throughout the country, and especially at the higher elevations of the Jerusalem mountains and Galilee. Snow is also possible on the Golan, and likely on the Hermon. Forecasts produced with a high resolution model already show ice and hail Friday into the early morning. We hope to produce a very high resolution forecast Friday morning.
These cold temperatures are certainly unusual for this time of year, and are most likely in part due to the fact that the coldest temperatures in the northern hemisphere have been bottled up in the highest latitudes most winter, so there is still winter cold to come around.
Will they lead to a late season period of snow late Friday night into Shabbat morning?
Stay tuned.
Barry Lynn
1) Winter Cold into Sunday Morning
2) Periods of rain and thunderstorms with hail.
3) Snow possible on the higher peaks, including Jerusalem late Friday night into Shabbat Morning.
4) Flooding possible in east central and southern areas.
5) Strong early storm possible late next week.
Some of you might remember that winter didn't really start until the last week of December. But, soon after that there were 5 successive storms that led to severe flooding in many areas. Then, contrary to the seasonal forecasts issued for January, February, and March, the wet weather continued until now, and the last week of March looks especially rainy.
With our unusually cold and rainy weather this week comes an unusual weather map for this time of year. There is high pressure over England and high pressure over Siberia. In between there are areas of low pressure moving from west to east across the Mediterranean. As we wrote about last time, one of them has rejoined with the polar front and stalled in our area. Cold air continues to seep into this system from Siberia, and as we have moved closer to Shabbat forecasts have progressively turned colder, including the latest 12 UTC Global Ensemble Forecast System.
Cold air in the lower atmosphere (at 850 mb) will arrive tonight, while colder air in the middle atmosphere (700 mb) will arrive tomorrow (Friday). The upper level cold at 500 mb should arrive Friday night and temperatures at 500 mb should approach -30 Celcius towards morning. Because this cold air is arriving at night, conditions will be ideal for cooling temperatures throughout the country, and especially at the higher elevations of the Jerusalem mountains and Galilee. Snow is also possible on the Golan, and likely on the Hermon. Forecasts produced with a high resolution model already show ice and hail Friday into the early morning. We hope to produce a very high resolution forecast Friday morning.
These cold temperatures are certainly unusual for this time of year, and are most likely in part due to the fact that the coldest temperatures in the northern hemisphere have been bottled up in the highest latitudes most winter, so there is still winter cold to come around.
Will they lead to a late season period of snow late Friday night into Shabbat morning?
Stay tuned.
Barry Lynn
Saturday, March 14, 2020
Weather It Is (A Respite and Then Winter Cold)
Good Evening:
Highlights
1) Winter Cold Returns TuesdayNight.
2) Heavy Rains, Hail, and Strong Winds
3) Snow on the Golan and Hermon
Our storm that ended the week took an unusual path, but in the process it brought plenty of dust, thunderstorms, flooding rains, and winds that gusted over 100 km/h. We had about 50 mm of rain just overnight (Friday night).
After a two day respite, our next storm will arrive from the northwest Tuesday evening, become cut off from the polar jet to its north, and then reconnect to it as even colder air reinvigorates the storm as the week ends.
Precipitation should be fairly steady from Tuesday night into Shabbat, if not Sunday, and temperatures will be very chilly, in fact downright chilly for this time of the year. At the moment, the forecast suggests that the temperatures will be cold enough for snow on the higher elevations of the Golan on Tuesday night and then Thursday into Shabbat.
Our best chance for wet snow will be next Shabbat, but most likely folks will just see a very chilly rain at the higher elevations of the central mountains. Still, colder temperatures aloft will probably bring thunderstorms with hail.
While temperatures should turn milder, if not warm the following week, the second half may again turn towards winter once more. The month will then end with a wintry chill.
When I was growing up, we had snow days come every once and a while. These are days when school would be cancelled because of a threat of snow or an actual storm itself. When I moved here, we also had a few snow days, here in the Jerusalem mountains. Other kids had "Missile Days," when HAMAS of Islamic Jihad would periodically shoot missiles at their schools so the kids could stay home and watch movies in their parents bomb shelters. What fun!
Now, we have "Virus Days." Virus days are for all the school kids, both those that sometimes stay home for snow days, and those that more frequently get missile days off. from school. In fact, it looks like this will be an extended vacation -- although not the kind those who pine for snow days would wish for.
People who have been exposed to the virus or fear they might have been exposed have been asked to enter quarantine.. Those who have not, have all rushed to the supermarkets so they can catch the virus while stocking up for what will turn out for them to be a 14 day quarantine. This is called panic, and at the moment the only reason the supermarket shelves are empty is because people bought enough food for the next month, even though the cows and chickens are not infected, and there is plenty of rain to water the grains, fruits, and vegetables. There are also deliveries continuing to arrive from overseas, although there has been a slowdown due to issues relating to how to quarantine those making the deliveries.
Of course Passover is coming -- and if anything will put an end to the virus it will be the cleaning prior to Passover. No virus will remain, nor even a bacteria anywhere in any kitchen, or under a bet or living room couch, and there certainly won't be any crumbs to feed the mice.
I tried to get something to eat the other day, but a sign said that the kitchen was closed Apparently, my wife was exposed to the the "Chametz Virus," and is now in quarantine in the kitchen -- cleaning.
So, we can hope the weather will turn warm and sunny for April, but until then our winter weather will return, giving us further reason to hope that April brings showers, not storms.
Barry Lynn
Highlights
1) Winter Cold Returns TuesdayNight.
2) Heavy Rains, Hail, and Strong Winds
3) Snow on the Golan and Hermon
Our storm that ended the week took an unusual path, but in the process it brought plenty of dust, thunderstorms, flooding rains, and winds that gusted over 100 km/h. We had about 50 mm of rain just overnight (Friday night).
After a two day respite, our next storm will arrive from the northwest Tuesday evening, become cut off from the polar jet to its north, and then reconnect to it as even colder air reinvigorates the storm as the week ends.
Precipitation should be fairly steady from Tuesday night into Shabbat, if not Sunday, and temperatures will be very chilly, in fact downright chilly for this time of the year. At the moment, the forecast suggests that the temperatures will be cold enough for snow on the higher elevations of the Golan on Tuesday night and then Thursday into Shabbat.
Our best chance for wet snow will be next Shabbat, but most likely folks will just see a very chilly rain at the higher elevations of the central mountains. Still, colder temperatures aloft will probably bring thunderstorms with hail.
While temperatures should turn milder, if not warm the following week, the second half may again turn towards winter once more. The month will then end with a wintry chill.
When I was growing up, we had snow days come every once and a while. These are days when school would be cancelled because of a threat of snow or an actual storm itself. When I moved here, we also had a few snow days, here in the Jerusalem mountains. Other kids had "Missile Days," when HAMAS of Islamic Jihad would periodically shoot missiles at their schools so the kids could stay home and watch movies in their parents bomb shelters. What fun!
Now, we have "Virus Days." Virus days are for all the school kids, both those that sometimes stay home for snow days, and those that more frequently get missile days off. from school. In fact, it looks like this will be an extended vacation -- although not the kind those who pine for snow days would wish for.
People who have been exposed to the virus or fear they might have been exposed have been asked to enter quarantine.. Those who have not, have all rushed to the supermarkets so they can catch the virus while stocking up for what will turn out for them to be a 14 day quarantine. This is called panic, and at the moment the only reason the supermarket shelves are empty is because people bought enough food for the next month, even though the cows and chickens are not infected, and there is plenty of rain to water the grains, fruits, and vegetables. There are also deliveries continuing to arrive from overseas, although there has been a slowdown due to issues relating to how to quarantine those making the deliveries.
Of course Passover is coming -- and if anything will put an end to the virus it will be the cleaning prior to Passover. No virus will remain, nor even a bacteria anywhere in any kitchen, or under a bet or living room couch, and there certainly won't be any crumbs to feed the mice.
I tried to get something to eat the other day, but a sign said that the kitchen was closed Apparently, my wife was exposed to the the "Chametz Virus," and is now in quarantine in the kitchen -- cleaning.
So, we can hope the weather will turn warm and sunny for April, but until then our winter weather will return, giving us further reason to hope that April brings showers, not storms.
Barry Lynn
Friday, March 13, 2020
Weather It Is (Gale Winds and Floods)
Good Friday Morning.
There is a very high chance winds will exceed 41 knots (about 75 km/h) over southern areas, including Eilat later this morning into this evening. There is a small chance that winds will exceed 48 knots (90 km/h) as well.
Mitzpe Rimon should also see very strong winds, with 30 to 35 knot winds in Beer-Sheva.
There is a high probability of floods over southern areas, and in the Dead-Sea Basin, from mid-afternoon in Shabbat morning. Maximum rain amounts are expected to be 25 to 50 mm.
Thursday, March 12, 2020
Weather It Is (Gale Warning)
Good Afternoon:
There is a Whole Gale warning for later this afternoon continuing into Friday morning.
Southern parts of the country have a high probability of experiencing sustained Storm winds of > 48 knots (90 km/h).
Based on our ensemble forecast (attached maps), this late afternoon will experience 35 to 40 knot winds across much of the area, with > 48 knots over southern Israel. Gusts will be greater than 60 knots
Tonight: the strongest winds will occur in the inland hills, east of the major cities, with mean winds of 34 knots (65 km/h). Winds will also increase in the Haifa area to > 30 knots. .
Tonight, within the coastal cities, gusts of > 34 knots are likely with gusts > 41 knots possible. Gusts will be especially strong in the Haifa area tonight.
Friday morning, winds will be strongest over the south with Gale winds (> 46 knots or 65 km/h).
Winds should decrease in the afternoon.
Total precipitation is also shown: generally 25 to 50 mm will fall by 0200 LT Friday, so expect flooding over southern areas. Possible flooding might occur from Ashkelon to Haifa, beginning late tonight to late morning as convective storms swing northward up the coast.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Weather It Is (Strong Storms Then Cold)
Good Morning:
Highlights:
1) Strong thunderstorms Thursday Night into Shabbat, with hail.
2) Chance of thunderstorms over the south tonight. Localized flooding is possible.
3) Strong winds.
4) Late next week should see a return to winter-cold with snow on the Hermon.
Two days of mostly nice weather will be followed by strong thunderstorms as the weather turns colder. The storm is associated with a potent upper level divergence (an intense vorticity maximum), which will lead to robust divergence aloft, so the surface pressure will be unusually low compared to typical Israeli winter storms (below 1000 mb). The storm is moving across the Sinai (where very heavy rain should lead to flooding), before heading back northeast, and then passing over us. Hence, it is expected to pick up plenty of dust, and thunderstorms with hail are a strong possibility as the storm arrives Thursday night.
There is a chance of thunderstorms across the south tonight ahead of the storm, and then heavy rain is expected from the south to the central areas Thursday night. Heavy rain is expected in the northern areas on Friday, and then heavy rain should return to the central areas Friday night into Shabbat. Localized flooding is possible in heavier storms.
The rain should taper off late Shabbat, and temperatures should moderate into mid-next week. Yet, spring will not be springing, as late next week a deep trough should approach from the north, bringing winter-chill, rain, and snow on the Golan/Hermon.
The latest snow in the central mountains in more recent memory was March 17th, 2008.
Barry Lynn
Highlights:
1) Strong thunderstorms Thursday Night into Shabbat, with hail.
2) Chance of thunderstorms over the south tonight. Localized flooding is possible.
3) Strong winds.
4) Late next week should see a return to winter-cold with snow on the Hermon.
Two days of mostly nice weather will be followed by strong thunderstorms as the weather turns colder. The storm is associated with a potent upper level divergence (an intense vorticity maximum), which will lead to robust divergence aloft, so the surface pressure will be unusually low compared to typical Israeli winter storms (below 1000 mb). The storm is moving across the Sinai (where very heavy rain should lead to flooding), before heading back northeast, and then passing over us. Hence, it is expected to pick up plenty of dust, and thunderstorms with hail are a strong possibility as the storm arrives Thursday night.
There is a chance of thunderstorms across the south tonight ahead of the storm, and then heavy rain is expected from the south to the central areas Thursday night. Heavy rain is expected in the northern areas on Friday, and then heavy rain should return to the central areas Friday night into Shabbat. Localized flooding is possible in heavier storms.
The rain should taper off late Shabbat, and temperatures should moderate into mid-next week. Yet, spring will not be springing, as late next week a deep trough should approach from the north, bringing winter-chill, rain, and snow on the Golan/Hermon.
The latest snow in the central mountains in more recent memory was March 17th, 2008.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, March 8, 2020
Weather It Is (Dangerous Storm on the Way)
Good Afternoon:
There seems a lot to worry about, and the forecasts for the end of the week have added to these worries.
As noted in our previous column, the weather pattern has been "stuck" in the positive phase of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation, and both patterns have been combining to bring periodic storms, many of which have spent a good part of their lifetimes over the moist, and relatively warm Mediterranean Sea.
Thus, after a warm Purim with a chance of scattered showers the weather will change for the worse.
About mid-week, a deep trough will drop southward, passing east of Italy and west of Crete. It is part of a ridge-trough couplet stretching from western to central Europe. The trough will cut-off from the polar jet and move through Egypt and into the northern Sinai by Friday morning. Two of the three global ensemble forecast models predict the storm to then reconnect with the Polar Jet, strengthening as it moves into the southern/eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. The more this system merges with the polar Jet, the heavier and more severe our weather will be.
Moreover, the southern trajectory of the storm means that there will be plenty of dust ingested into the storm, including some upper level Atlantic Ocean moisture. Together, plenty of moisture and dust suggests that thunderstorms will be more intense than typical winter-thunderstorms, and that many places will surpass the 25 mm amounts measured in southern and eastern areas during our last storm. Storms should again (also) impact the southern areas quite heavily.
The heavy rains, strong winds, thunder and hail should last from Friday into Sunday morning.
The arrival of the storm at the end of the week seems pretty certain. What is less certain is how many people will become sick from CoronaVirus. The United States CDC has a list of symptoms to be aware of (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html) including cough and high fever, as well as other helpful facts.
I'd like to dispel a pernicious and dangerous myth that seems to be spreading among some circles -- that the Coronavirus is not as dangerous as the common flu. Right now, about 3% of those infected are dying from the virus, which makes it more deadly on a percentage basis than the Spanish Flu of 1917/18. The reason some give for its supposed lack of lethality is that there are "probably" many more people who are carriers or just had light symptoms that we never hear about.
This idea is absurd because it is just as likely that there were people who were carriers of the Spanish Flu or only had light symptoms. The reason that 10s of millions died was because it spread from place to place, and occurred at a time when containment of the flu was hindered by the conditions during World War I (and the malnutrition that went with it).
The Israel Ministry of Health, including its deputy head Rabbi Yaakov Litzman, deserves high praise for its efforts to limit the spread of the virus. The current rules suspending flights and quarantining travellers and those suspected of having the disease just might, just might save millions.
But, for this to happen, each person must do his or her part.
1) Wash your hands with soap and water, frequently during the day, especially upon return home and before eating (and of course after using the bathroom).
2) Consider using an alcoholic hand cleaning solution when out, especially after touching door knobs, tables, grocery carts, etc, touched by others.
3) Try not to touch your face, mouth, and eyes with your fingers.
4) Try not to open doors with your hands.
5) STAY HOME: if you have symptoms, don't spread it to someone else because then it can spread EXPONENTIALLY from there.
6) As the Rabbi of our Synagogue recently wrote, saving a life is more important than other obligations we might have, including public prayer, and this is one of those times when we can save not just our own lives, but the lives of many others.
Barry Lynn
There seems a lot to worry about, and the forecasts for the end of the week have added to these worries.
As noted in our previous column, the weather pattern has been "stuck" in the positive phase of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation, and both patterns have been combining to bring periodic storms, many of which have spent a good part of their lifetimes over the moist, and relatively warm Mediterranean Sea.
Thus, after a warm Purim with a chance of scattered showers the weather will change for the worse.
About mid-week, a deep trough will drop southward, passing east of Italy and west of Crete. It is part of a ridge-trough couplet stretching from western to central Europe. The trough will cut-off from the polar jet and move through Egypt and into the northern Sinai by Friday morning. Two of the three global ensemble forecast models predict the storm to then reconnect with the Polar Jet, strengthening as it moves into the southern/eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. The more this system merges with the polar Jet, the heavier and more severe our weather will be.
Moreover, the southern trajectory of the storm means that there will be plenty of dust ingested into the storm, including some upper level Atlantic Ocean moisture. Together, plenty of moisture and dust suggests that thunderstorms will be more intense than typical winter-thunderstorms, and that many places will surpass the 25 mm amounts measured in southern and eastern areas during our last storm. Storms should again (also) impact the southern areas quite heavily.
The heavy rains, strong winds, thunder and hail should last from Friday into Sunday morning.
The arrival of the storm at the end of the week seems pretty certain. What is less certain is how many people will become sick from CoronaVirus. The United States CDC has a list of symptoms to be aware of (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html) including cough and high fever, as well as other helpful facts.
I'd like to dispel a pernicious and dangerous myth that seems to be spreading among some circles -- that the Coronavirus is not as dangerous as the common flu. Right now, about 3% of those infected are dying from the virus, which makes it more deadly on a percentage basis than the Spanish Flu of 1917/18. The reason some give for its supposed lack of lethality is that there are "probably" many more people who are carriers or just had light symptoms that we never hear about.
This idea is absurd because it is just as likely that there were people who were carriers of the Spanish Flu or only had light symptoms. The reason that 10s of millions died was because it spread from place to place, and occurred at a time when containment of the flu was hindered by the conditions during World War I (and the malnutrition that went with it).
The Israel Ministry of Health, including its deputy head Rabbi Yaakov Litzman, deserves high praise for its efforts to limit the spread of the virus. The current rules suspending flights and quarantining travellers and those suspected of having the disease just might, just might save millions.
But, for this to happen, each person must do his or her part.
1) Wash your hands with soap and water, frequently during the day, especially upon return home and before eating (and of course after using the bathroom).
2) Consider using an alcoholic hand cleaning solution when out, especially after touching door knobs, tables, grocery carts, etc, touched by others.
3) Try not to touch your face, mouth, and eyes with your fingers.
4) Try not to open doors with your hands.
5) STAY HOME: if you have symptoms, don't spread it to someone else because then it can spread EXPONENTIALLY from there.
6) As the Rabbi of our Synagogue recently wrote, saving a life is more important than other obligations we might have, including public prayer, and this is one of those times when we can save not just our own lives, but the lives of many others.
Barry Lynn
Friday, March 6, 2020
Weather It Is (Winter Continues)
Posted March 1st. Update Motzei Shabbat:
Good Evening:
What do you do when your weatherman has "writers block?" Really, how many times can I write that it is going to rain, but that the main area of cold air will miss us to the north or to the east?
I suppose the answer is at least one more time.
It's been a really interesting winter, once it got going in late December. It started with a series of very heavy rainstorms, and we've now surpassed the average amount for the year (https://ims.gov.il/sites/default/files/ims_data/map_images/dailyRainfall/dailyRainfall.pdf?parm=5e5be31501297). Moreover, additional rain (with possible snow on the Hermon) is expected at the end of this week, and then at the end of the following week. Both rain events are associated with winter-type storms, rather than the red-sea troughs of spring.
Yet, it snowed only briefly outside the higher elevations of the Golan, and the Hermon.
In a year of continuously strongly positive North Atlantic (NAO) and Arctic Oscillations (AO), one might have expected a snowstorm or two. A positive NAO means that a ridge of warm air is often present over western Europe, which is often associated with a trough of cold air over the eastern Mediterranean. These troughs of cold air help to spin up winter storms. A positive AO means that there is plenty of cold air if the atmosphere circulation should align to amplify the trough. The cold air would normally arrive via Siberia, passing over Turkey before settling in over our area. One extreme example of this was the extremely heavy snowstorm of December 2013.
However, it didn't happen, and the question is what was missing? It is a strange question to ask because this year was marked by a number of "short-waves" (storms) moving around the ridge of high pressure, and even often superimposed on it. Since these traveled over quite a distance and arrived from the west (over the sea), we were blessed with plentiful rain. This would be in contrast to the ridge building to our west and stretching far into northern Europe, while cold air flows southward from Siberia (i.e., the storm arrives more directly). Precipitation might be heavier than our average storm this winter, but less frequent. It would be an interesting research question to understand what was missing, so to speak, in the global circulation that inhibited deepening of troughs in the eastern Mediterranean.
Less theoretical, is the worry about the Corona Virus. As discussed in The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/
Moreover, the Chinese culture discourages individuality and criticism, which is especially bad under the current government. For an interesting summary of the effect of cultural norms on safety, read here: https://blogs.wsj.com/middleseat/2008/12/04/malcolm-gladwell-on-culture-cockpit-communication-and-plane-crashes/.
Had the Corona Virus been dealt with earlier, instead of only after it became an epidemic (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/world/asia/china-coronavirus-doctor-death.html) quite possibly countless lives could have been saved -- not to mention the disruption to the world economies.
On our side of the world, our government has been pro-active in preventing the spread of the virus. We can only hope that we will have a new government soon that it will also be proactive in fixing our problems with hospital over-crowding (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/middleeast/israel-election-issues.html?), lack of roads and mass transit, and an educational system that pays its teachers far too little, and educates its students to be knowledgeable but not wise children.
Barry Lynn
Good Evening:
What do you do when your weatherman has "writers block?" Really, how many times can I write that it is going to rain, but that the main area of cold air will miss us to the north or to the east?
I suppose the answer is at least one more time.
It's been a really interesting winter, once it got going in late December. It started with a series of very heavy rainstorms, and we've now surpassed the average amount for the year (https://ims.gov.il/sites/default/files/ims_data/map_images/dailyRainfall/dailyRainfall.pdf?parm=5e5be31501297). Moreover, additional rain (with possible snow on the Hermon) is expected at the end of this week, and then at the end of the following week. Both rain events are associated with winter-type storms, rather than the red-sea troughs of spring.
Yet, it snowed only briefly outside the higher elevations of the Golan, and the Hermon.
In a year of continuously strongly positive North Atlantic (NAO) and Arctic Oscillations (AO), one might have expected a snowstorm or two. A positive NAO means that a ridge of warm air is often present over western Europe, which is often associated with a trough of cold air over the eastern Mediterranean. These troughs of cold air help to spin up winter storms. A positive AO means that there is plenty of cold air if the atmosphere circulation should align to amplify the trough. The cold air would normally arrive via Siberia, passing over Turkey before settling in over our area. One extreme example of this was the extremely heavy snowstorm of December 2013.
However, it didn't happen, and the question is what was missing? It is a strange question to ask because this year was marked by a number of "short-waves" (storms) moving around the ridge of high pressure, and even often superimposed on it. Since these traveled over quite a distance and arrived from the west (over the sea), we were blessed with plentiful rain. This would be in contrast to the ridge building to our west and stretching far into northern Europe, while cold air flows southward from Siberia (i.e., the storm arrives more directly). Precipitation might be heavier than our average storm this winter, but less frequent. It would be an interesting research question to understand what was missing, so to speak, in the global circulation that inhibited deepening of troughs in the eastern Mediterranean.
Less theoretical, is the worry about the Corona Virus. As discussed in The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/
Moreover, the Chinese culture discourages individuality and criticism, which is especially bad under the current government. For an interesting summary of the effect of cultural norms on safety, read here: https://blogs.wsj.com/middleseat/2008/12/04/malcolm-gladwell-on-culture-cockpit-communication-and-plane-crashes/.
Had the Corona Virus been dealt with earlier, instead of only after it became an epidemic (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/world/asia/china-coronavirus-doctor-death.html) quite possibly countless lives could have been saved -- not to mention the disruption to the world economies.
On our side of the world, our government has been pro-active in preventing the spread of the virus. We can only hope that we will have a new government soon that it will also be proactive in fixing our problems with hospital over-crowding (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/middleeast/israel-election-issues.html?), lack of roads and mass transit, and an educational system that pays its teachers far too little, and educates its students to be knowledgeable but not wise children.
Barry Lynn
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