Good Morning:
Friday's milder weather was interrupted with occasional showers. These showers were laden with plenty of desert dust, and the dust and an approaching front set the stage for strong thunderstorms Friday night. On Shabbat, the dust and plenty of moisture combined for periodic thunderstorms and hail.
Heavy rain Motzei Shabbat will continue today (Sunday) as an upper level low approaches. Since temperatures at 500 mb will be cooling off, the arrival of the storm should bring another chance for thunderstorms tonight. Because this is a slow moving storm, rain and shows could last into Tuesday.
The good news for those who are looking forward to spring: the passage of the storm will be followed by steadily increasing temperatures. The warmer temperatures should last into early next week when possibly another storm should arrive.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, March 31, 2019
Tuesday, March 26, 2019
Weather It Is (Big Storm Coming)
Good Evening:
On Monday, temperatures in the Jerusalem area were quite chilly for this time of year. At my home, in fact, it never rose about 6 degrees Celsius. Even more, for those pining for Spring, there's a big storm coming.
This storm will probably bring greater than 50 mm of rain to many locations, with localized heavier amounts. There will also be strong winds and plenty of thunderstorms with hail.
The storm should be dropping in from the northwest late Friday/Shabbat Evening. Ahead of the storm, it should feel more like spring as temperatures rise on southerly breezes. However, the winds should bring plenty of dust, and then they will bring plenty of moisture with again unusually seasonably cold temperatures.
Because the storm should be arriving from the northwest, temperatures in the lower atmosphere should moderate ahead of it enough to bring only rain to the central mountains, with snow again above about 1100 m on the Golan. The storm should be long lasting, with thunderstorms arriving Friday night, showers on Shabbat, and very heavy rain expected late Sunday, with rain lasting into late Monday or even Tuesday of next week.
It's a storm to reckon with.
The other day, there was a very unusual weather event in central Israel. A tornado leveled a house, and if not for the quick action of the family to seek shelter, a terrible tragedy would have occurred (https://www.timesofisrael.com/father-says-its-a-miracle-family-survived-gaza-rocket-that-leveled-their-home/). Actually, the event wasn't weather related, unless you believe that missile attacks from Gaza is something -- like the weather -- that we can't do anything about.
I have a suggestion, I must first digress and mention that to receive a driving license in Israel, the new driver to be is required to take 28 lessons. Yet, to get married and have children no lessons are required at all! Moreover, for the religious who take a few lesson on "family purity" they leave out the most important information for brides that their husbands will be far too often "Maetzben;" for the grooms they neglect to tell them that their wives -- for the most part -- will not mean what they say. For new parents -- family tradition or not -- they forget to tell you that spanking your child doesn't lead to better behavior except in rare instances (https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/insight-therapy/201802/the-spanking-debate-is-over).
Another solution is required for parents! In fact, the best book I ever read on how to raise well-behaved children is the book "SOS For Parents" (https://www.amazon.com/SOS-Practical-Handling-Everyday-Behavior-ebook/dp/B00O4HSN18). Instead of a spank, the child is placed in "time-out;" a simple wind up kitchen time clock tracks one minute for every year of age. I can tell that it works because I seen the results.
As I just pointed out, spanking doesn't work, and the big "spanking" the Israeli air-force gave to the HAMAS et al. will never stop the missile attacks, etc. It was, in fact, just one of many spankings given over the last few years (by the way, one should note that not a single Gazan was killed in more than hundred pin-point attacks). The reason it doesn't work -- outside of HAMAS et al's obsession with killing every living Jew in the world -- is that we're dealing with children (or children masquerading as adults). Just listen to them speak: “We will not give up our duty to the blood of the martyrs shed by the occupation, and we know how to respond to this dangerous escalation." This should be translated as: you hit me! (https://www.timesofisrael.com/islamic-jihad-vows-revenge-after-two-terror-group-members-killed-by-idf/).
So, I'd like to suggest a possible response that might work. Every time a missile or mortar or infiltration occurs we should send Gaza (in it entirety) into time-out. By this, we should simply stop the supply of electricity for a day (this is not "collective" punishment: we're under no obligation to provide electricity to another "country" and a people that wish our demise). We should announce that we are calling a "time-out" from the insanity of providing electricity that HAMAS uses build the missiles that fly -- like clouds over the border -- to destroy our homes. Perhaps such outages will trigger enough protests (https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinian-self-immolates-on-3rd-day-of-gaza-protests-against-hamas/) to either force the leadership to grow up or find some real adults who are willing to accept true responsibility for governing the two million people who live in their playhouse.
Barry Lynn
On Monday, temperatures in the Jerusalem area were quite chilly for this time of year. At my home, in fact, it never rose about 6 degrees Celsius. Even more, for those pining for Spring, there's a big storm coming.
This storm will probably bring greater than 50 mm of rain to many locations, with localized heavier amounts. There will also be strong winds and plenty of thunderstorms with hail.
The storm should be dropping in from the northwest late Friday/Shabbat Evening. Ahead of the storm, it should feel more like spring as temperatures rise on southerly breezes. However, the winds should bring plenty of dust, and then they will bring plenty of moisture with again unusually seasonably cold temperatures.
Because the storm should be arriving from the northwest, temperatures in the lower atmosphere should moderate ahead of it enough to bring only rain to the central mountains, with snow again above about 1100 m on the Golan. The storm should be long lasting, with thunderstorms arriving Friday night, showers on Shabbat, and very heavy rain expected late Sunday, with rain lasting into late Monday or even Tuesday of next week.
It's a storm to reckon with.
The other day, there was a very unusual weather event in central Israel. A tornado leveled a house, and if not for the quick action of the family to seek shelter, a terrible tragedy would have occurred (https://www.timesofisrael.com/father-says-its-a-miracle-family-survived-gaza-rocket-that-leveled-their-home/). Actually, the event wasn't weather related, unless you believe that missile attacks from Gaza is something -- like the weather -- that we can't do anything about.
I have a suggestion, I must first digress and mention that to receive a driving license in Israel, the new driver to be is required to take 28 lessons. Yet, to get married and have children no lessons are required at all! Moreover, for the religious who take a few lesson on "family purity" they leave out the most important information for brides that their husbands will be far too often "Maetzben;" for the grooms they neglect to tell them that their wives -- for the most part -- will not mean what they say. For new parents -- family tradition or not -- they forget to tell you that spanking your child doesn't lead to better behavior except in rare instances (https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/insight-therapy/201802/the-spanking-debate-is-over).
Another solution is required for parents! In fact, the best book I ever read on how to raise well-behaved children is the book "SOS For Parents" (https://www.amazon.com/SOS-Practical-Handling-Everyday-Behavior-ebook/dp/B00O4HSN18). Instead of a spank, the child is placed in "time-out;" a simple wind up kitchen time clock tracks one minute for every year of age. I can tell that it works because I seen the results.
As I just pointed out, spanking doesn't work, and the big "spanking" the Israeli air-force gave to the HAMAS et al. will never stop the missile attacks, etc. It was, in fact, just one of many spankings given over the last few years (by the way, one should note that not a single Gazan was killed in more than hundred pin-point attacks). The reason it doesn't work -- outside of HAMAS et al's obsession with killing every living Jew in the world -- is that we're dealing with children (or children masquerading as adults). Just listen to them speak: “We will not give up our duty to the blood of the martyrs shed by the occupation, and we know how to respond to this dangerous escalation." This should be translated as: you hit me! (https://www.timesofisrael.com/islamic-jihad-vows-revenge-after-two-terror-group-members-killed-by-idf/).
So, I'd like to suggest a possible response that might work. Every time a missile or mortar or infiltration occurs we should send Gaza (in it entirety) into time-out. By this, we should simply stop the supply of electricity for a day (this is not "collective" punishment: we're under no obligation to provide electricity to another "country" and a people that wish our demise). We should announce that we are calling a "time-out" from the insanity of providing electricity that HAMAS uses build the missiles that fly -- like clouds over the border -- to destroy our homes. Perhaps such outages will trigger enough protests (https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinian-self-immolates-on-3rd-day-of-gaza-protests-against-hamas/) to either force the leadership to grow up or find some real adults who are willing to accept true responsibility for governing the two million people who live in their playhouse.
Barry Lynn
Saturday, March 23, 2019
Weather It Is (Update)
Good Evening:
A storm will approach our area Sunday night and last into Monday.
Unlike most of our previous storms, the coldest air associated with this storm should pass right over us. However, relatively warm air at lower levels associated with deepening low pressure will mean that this storm should be a rain and hail event, with strong winds. Snow should be confined to elevations most likely above 1100 m (in the Golan).
The chilly weather should last into next week, with another storm set to approach our area at the end of this coming week.
The winter rains have been and continue to be a blessing.
Barry Lynn
A storm will approach our area Sunday night and last into Monday.
Unlike most of our previous storms, the coldest air associated with this storm should pass right over us. However, relatively warm air at lower levels associated with deepening low pressure will mean that this storm should be a rain and hail event, with strong winds. Snow should be confined to elevations most likely above 1100 m (in the Golan).
The chilly weather should last into next week, with another storm set to approach our area at the end of this coming week.
The winter rains have been and continue to be a blessing.
Barry Lynn
Thursday, March 21, 2019
Weather It Is (Only the Shadow Knows)
Good Purim Afternoon:
Our last weather "story" ended on a note of irony: despite the unlikely event of snow so late in March -- and despite the number of near misses so far -- the forecast did again show such a possibility.
Since then, our weather story has swung in different directions: first building a ridge over western Europe, but pushing the sinking trough over eastern Europe east of us. At that time, our forecast still pointed to a very end of March period of more winter cold and rain. However, the forecast has now swung back and is actually trending towards even colder temperatures with each new forecast -- and our next event is now slated to arrive late Sunday night and Monday, and -- for added irony -- the end of the month also appears to be cold and rainy.
Most likely, it will indeed be cold and rainy throughout most of the country with strong winds early next week, and then again at the end of next week (with snow on the Hermon). However, there is still a chance of snow over higher elevations in the central mountains with our upcoming event. Because the heaviest precipitation is forecast Sunday night into Monday, the sun will not warm the boundary layer temperatures (where we live) as the coldest air settles in, and evaporative processes cool surface temperatures. So, snow -- even this late in the season (it is now officially spring) -- is still a possibility. But will it snow? At this point, "Only the Shadow Knows."
Otherwise, expect plenty of dust prior to the arrival of the storm, and the dust should continue over southern areas even on Monday.
Purim Samaech!
Barry Lynn
Our last weather "story" ended on a note of irony: despite the unlikely event of snow so late in March -- and despite the number of near misses so far -- the forecast did again show such a possibility.
Since then, our weather story has swung in different directions: first building a ridge over western Europe, but pushing the sinking trough over eastern Europe east of us. At that time, our forecast still pointed to a very end of March period of more winter cold and rain. However, the forecast has now swung back and is actually trending towards even colder temperatures with each new forecast -- and our next event is now slated to arrive late Sunday night and Monday, and -- for added irony -- the end of the month also appears to be cold and rainy.
Most likely, it will indeed be cold and rainy throughout most of the country with strong winds early next week, and then again at the end of next week (with snow on the Hermon). However, there is still a chance of snow over higher elevations in the central mountains with our upcoming event. Because the heaviest precipitation is forecast Sunday night into Monday, the sun will not warm the boundary layer temperatures (where we live) as the coldest air settles in, and evaporative processes cool surface temperatures. So, snow -- even this late in the season (it is now officially spring) -- is still a possibility. But will it snow? At this point, "Only the Shadow Knows."
Otherwise, expect plenty of dust prior to the arrival of the storm, and the dust should continue over southern areas even on Monday.
Purim Samaech!
Barry Lynn
Sunday, March 17, 2019
Weather It Is (Winter's Revenge)
Good Afternoon:
When your own daughter turns against you, you know it is time to take down your barometer.
She is not the only one who asked me to end winter, reset the clock (if possible), and go forward to spring.
Based on conversations within our "Israel Winter Weather" group, I should mention that rainfall is much above normal this winter season, while temperatures are cumulatively below normal. The combination has made for both a chilly and wet winter -- and led to rather disgruntled readers who don't remember what winters used to be like (there have been only two colder than normal winters since 2003-04, but this is probably the only wet one of the bunch).
Despite the chilly start to the week, temperatures should rise slowly over the next few days, but then they will start a a persistent decline towards the last week of the month.
When deciding what to write next, one should be very careful with ones words. For instance, I won't mention that 10 cm of snow fell on March 18th, 1998 in Jerusalem, or that during March 26 & 27 1967 that there were snow accumulations from the north to the northern Negev. One might also not mention that according to Uri Batz that there was 15 cm of snow in March 1874 and 20 cm in March 1880. Also, I wouldn't dare to mention that 10 cm of snow fell in Jerusalem on March 16th, 1948.
I can mention that the last week of March should be a wet one with strong winds. I won't mention that the chance of snow has risen from 15 to 25% from yesterday to today. I won't mention this because climatologically speaking snow is very, very unlikely at this time of year. Instead, what is more likely is strong winds, rain, and hail.
In general, there are both good and bad decisions made everyday. Some are made out of hubris, and some are made out of greed. Others are made out of kindness. In fact, my decision to take care of a stray cat led indirectly (but it did) to my meeting my wife (who DID NOT like cats at that time).
Sometimes, decisions lead to tragic circumstances. For instance, Air France Flight 447 crashed because of a number of bad decisions, but some were not connected to each other (https://www.popularmechanics.com/flight/a3115/what-really-happened-aboard-air-france-447-6611877/). For instance, the pilots chose incorrectly to not divert around a tropical storm (like most other flights that day). Then, the radar on the plane was not tuned to the right mode, so they inadvertently entered an area of intense thunderstorms. This led to the clogging of sensors that enabled the automatic pilot to function (based on measured air-speed). Then, the "junior" co-pilot tried to take the plane over the area of bad weather, and both co-pilots initially ignored the warning that the plane's speed was decreasing enough to stall. In the meantime, the captain had just previously left the cabin to take a nap, and when he returned he was not able to take effective action intime to save the plane.
However, one decision was previously made far from the airplane itself. Airbus decided to link the "side sticks" that control the plane tilt (nose up or down). This means that when one pilot tried to lower the nose of the plane to pick up speed he was unaware that the other was doing (incorrectly) the opposite. So, a decision made well prior to the crash of this plane in the end doomed the plane.
Of course, Boeing itself is in a lot of trouble for decisions made (both past and present) to design a plane and system that has already crashed two planes. As noted, if one sensor measuring the pitch of the plane's nose malfunctions (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/15/business/boeing-ethiopian-crash.html) the automatic system can send the plane into a dive. One wonders, as one commentator pointed out, "who" designed a critical system where just one of two sensors malfunctioning could doom the plane?
While it seems comparatively trivial, I could have decided not to mention that the forecasts are hinting at a possible late month (early Spring snow). It can snow when it is climatologically unlikely (e.g., the super snowstorm of December 13, 2013). But, the relatively strong spring sun means that we would need a very dark and persistent cloud cover, or a nighttime storm, to bring about any accumulation. It all seems so unlikely, so why mention it? It's in the forecast. Ignoring the possible can have very dangerous consequences.
Barry Lynn
When your own daughter turns against you, you know it is time to take down your barometer.
She is not the only one who asked me to end winter, reset the clock (if possible), and go forward to spring.
Based on conversations within our "Israel Winter Weather" group, I should mention that rainfall is much above normal this winter season, while temperatures are cumulatively below normal. The combination has made for both a chilly and wet winter -- and led to rather disgruntled readers who don't remember what winters used to be like (there have been only two colder than normal winters since 2003-04, but this is probably the only wet one of the bunch).
Despite the chilly start to the week, temperatures should rise slowly over the next few days, but then they will start a a persistent decline towards the last week of the month.
When deciding what to write next, one should be very careful with ones words. For instance, I won't mention that 10 cm of snow fell on March 18th, 1998 in Jerusalem, or that during March 26 & 27 1967 that there were snow accumulations from the north to the northern Negev. One might also not mention that according to Uri Batz that there was 15 cm of snow in March 1874 and 20 cm in March 1880. Also, I wouldn't dare to mention that 10 cm of snow fell in Jerusalem on March 16th, 1948.
I can mention that the last week of March should be a wet one with strong winds. I won't mention that the chance of snow has risen from 15 to 25% from yesterday to today. I won't mention this because climatologically speaking snow is very, very unlikely at this time of year. Instead, what is more likely is strong winds, rain, and hail.
In general, there are both good and bad decisions made everyday. Some are made out of hubris, and some are made out of greed. Others are made out of kindness. In fact, my decision to take care of a stray cat led indirectly (but it did) to my meeting my wife (who DID NOT like cats at that time).
Sometimes, decisions lead to tragic circumstances. For instance, Air France Flight 447 crashed because of a number of bad decisions, but some were not connected to each other (https://www.popularmechanics.com/flight/a3115/what-really-happened-aboard-air-france-447-6611877/). For instance, the pilots chose incorrectly to not divert around a tropical storm (like most other flights that day). Then, the radar on the plane was not tuned to the right mode, so they inadvertently entered an area of intense thunderstorms. This led to the clogging of sensors that enabled the automatic pilot to function (based on measured air-speed). Then, the "junior" co-pilot tried to take the plane over the area of bad weather, and both co-pilots initially ignored the warning that the plane's speed was decreasing enough to stall. In the meantime, the captain had just previously left the cabin to take a nap, and when he returned he was not able to take effective action intime to save the plane.
However, one decision was previously made far from the airplane itself. Airbus decided to link the "side sticks" that control the plane tilt (nose up or down). This means that when one pilot tried to lower the nose of the plane to pick up speed he was unaware that the other was doing (incorrectly) the opposite. So, a decision made well prior to the crash of this plane in the end doomed the plane.
Of course, Boeing itself is in a lot of trouble for decisions made (both past and present) to design a plane and system that has already crashed two planes. As noted, if one sensor measuring the pitch of the plane's nose malfunctions (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/15/business/boeing-ethiopian-crash.html) the automatic system can send the plane into a dive. One wonders, as one commentator pointed out, "who" designed a critical system where just one of two sensors malfunctioning could doom the plane?
While it seems comparatively trivial, I could have decided not to mention that the forecasts are hinting at a possible late month (early Spring snow). It can snow when it is climatologically unlikely (e.g., the super snowstorm of December 13, 2013). But, the relatively strong spring sun means that we would need a very dark and persistent cloud cover, or a nighttime storm, to bring about any accumulation. It all seems so unlikely, so why mention it? It's in the forecast. Ignoring the possible can have very dangerous consequences.
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Weather It Is (Winter Rains)
Good Evening:
Our area should be impacted by two storms. The first will have moderate to heavy rains and strong winds, while the second could bring very heavy rains.
A storm will drop down near Crete and then move across our area on Thursday. It will be followed by another storm late Friday night through Shabbat day.
The really cold air associated with these storms is expected to remain far to our north. However, chilly weather should remain with us into Monday, before a moderate warm-up into the last week of April.
Barry Lynn
Our area should be impacted by two storms. The first will have moderate to heavy rains and strong winds, while the second could bring very heavy rains.
A storm will drop down near Crete and then move across our area on Thursday. It will be followed by another storm late Friday night through Shabbat day.
The really cold air associated with these storms is expected to remain far to our north. However, chilly weather should remain with us into Monday, before a moderate warm-up into the last week of April.
Barry Lynn
Friday, March 8, 2019
Weather It Is (Spring Will Have Sprung, But Then What?)
Good Morning:
Highlights: Some warmth, some chillier weather, and then warm again during the next week.
I believe that it was a week's past that I wrote last.
Quite frankly, I've been quite busy involved in my research, but I might mention that the weather wore me out.
Unlike last winter, we've had numerous "chances" appearing for snow this winter. By this I mean that some fraction of the global ensemble forecasts have shown cold and wet enough weather for snow in the Jerusalem area. In fact, there was a light snow in Jerusalem, and there was a light snow and heavier (but relatively brief) snow in Gush Etzion.
The question is whether the chances for snow over the winter reflect just how many times it did snow. For instance, if 30% of the forecasts indicate snow over the winter, and this happens 10 times, then it should snow 3 times. Quite possibly, the models are what we call "over-dispersive," meaning that the chances for snow exceed actuality. Alternatively, one might worry that a weather forecaster that "likes" snow might be over-dispersive him or herself. Perhaps he or she "plays-up" the chances for snow? One might just as well mention that there is a 70% chance of rain, but most folks find it more interesting to hear that there is a 30% chance of snow. One could even mention that historically, it snows less often than the indicated chances, so perhaps the forecaster and the model are both over-dispersive.
The good news is that the long range forecasts have been incredibly accurate, predicting 10 days in advance large changes in our weather. The "bad-news" is that some of us end up disappointed when winter rains rather than winter snows arrive on our doorstep.
Our latest forecasts indicate that there will be periods of warmer weather interrupted by chillier weather during the next week. There is a 50/50 chance that it will become very warm or possibly revert back to chillier showers and colder weather. During the last few days, some forecasts have shown even winter-like cold and heavier rain, but the latest forecast reduces these chances, perhaps dramatically.
We'll see.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Highlights: Some warmth, some chillier weather, and then warm again during the next week.
I believe that it was a week's past that I wrote last.
Quite frankly, I've been quite busy involved in my research, but I might mention that the weather wore me out.
Unlike last winter, we've had numerous "chances" appearing for snow this winter. By this I mean that some fraction of the global ensemble forecasts have shown cold and wet enough weather for snow in the Jerusalem area. In fact, there was a light snow in Jerusalem, and there was a light snow and heavier (but relatively brief) snow in Gush Etzion.
The question is whether the chances for snow over the winter reflect just how many times it did snow. For instance, if 30% of the forecasts indicate snow over the winter, and this happens 10 times, then it should snow 3 times. Quite possibly, the models are what we call "over-dispersive," meaning that the chances for snow exceed actuality. Alternatively, one might worry that a weather forecaster that "likes" snow might be over-dispersive him or herself. Perhaps he or she "plays-up" the chances for snow? One might just as well mention that there is a 70% chance of rain, but most folks find it more interesting to hear that there is a 30% chance of snow. One could even mention that historically, it snows less often than the indicated chances, so perhaps the forecaster and the model are both over-dispersive.
The good news is that the long range forecasts have been incredibly accurate, predicting 10 days in advance large changes in our weather. The "bad-news" is that some of us end up disappointed when winter rains rather than winter snows arrive on our doorstep.
Our latest forecasts indicate that there will be periods of warmer weather interrupted by chillier weather during the next week. There is a 50/50 chance that it will become very warm or possibly revert back to chillier showers and colder weather. During the last few days, some forecasts have shown even winter-like cold and heavier rain, but the latest forecast reduces these chances, perhaps dramatically.
We'll see.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
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