Weather It Is (Three Flour Challah)

Good Morning:

My wife and I share the kitchen.

When we moved to our new home,  my wife was very insistent that we have both a meat and dairy sink.  How else were we to be sure to follow the Torah commandment not to mix milk and meat.  In fact, she even designed an L-shaped kitchen such that the sinks are not even part of the same countertop.

Yet, it soon became very clear to me that the real purpose of the separation was to make sure that the two of us would never meet at the same (kitchen) place, and it turns out even at the same time (I'm the morning cooker, and she is the afternoon cooker, when it comes to preparing for Shabbat).

This is hard for me to accept, but I see the same behavior from our daughters, too.  So, I must take full responsibility for this aversion to my presence in the kitchen. Apparently,  nothing is more "annoying" than having to share the kitchen with me, or if you prefer: "what are you doing here, now?"

Yet, I have to say,  I just may not deserve such opprobrium.  Okay, maybe I do, but as in life, it's sometimes better to focus on where you going rather than the mess along the way.

With the advice of a friend, I've been trying to perfect my Shabbat Challah recipe.  In fact, chemistry was one of my favorite subjects.  How much water to titrate (add) into the solid (flours) to turn it into a liquid (pliable dough)?  How much sucrose or sugar to sweeten it?

The "problem" is that much is a matter of taste, rather than how many moles (or Tablespoons) of oil one adds so that the bread is moist, but not too moist to work with.

To arrive at my perfect Challah has taken years of finessing, and much feedback from the philosopher-scientist among the kids. By perfect here, I mean more perfect than before, which as you know is a very precise definition of perfection.  I even had a little help from my friend. But, it was my wife who pointed out that it's honey that can give bread a dry texture, which runs counter to the advice I found on the internet. So, I have now left it out of this later challah iteration.

The other problem in baking Challah is size.  Challah is best eaten fresh, and how many times does one want to make "French-Toast" with its leftovers.  Hence, the recipe I provide below is for a family that likes Challah for Friday night dinner, and individual portions or rolls for Shabbat day.

It's a recipe for three-flour Challah, white, whole wheat, and spelt. I add the ingredients to the bread machine (dough cycle) in the order listed.

3/4 cups water

2 eggs

3 Tb of olive oil

1 1/2 Tb of salt

1/8 to 1/4 cup sugar

1 Cup white flour

1 Cup Spelt flour

1 Cup Whole Wheat Flour

1/8 to 1/4 cup Gluten (to add texture)

2 tsp of active dry yeast

After the initial mixing, make sure the dough is pliable, but not sticky.  If it is sticky, add a bit more flour (or  if lumpy, vice versa). After the dough rises, divide into about equal halves.  One half will make around five Challah rolls, which are simply twisted into shape.  Otherwise, cut the other half lengthwise into three strands, and then braid them into a Challah.

Brush with a beaten egg, and let rise at 45 Celsius until about double in size (around 1/2 an hour).  Brush again, and then sprinkle with sesame and/or poppy seeds. Bake at 180 Celsius.  I just turn the oven on with the aspiring Challahs inside and set the timer for 29 minutes.  Despite my attention to moles and proper titration, this seems to work just fine.  The Challahs should be nicely brown on the outside, but not hard.

For those without a bread maker, add the yeast directly to the liquid, and then add 1 cup of flour to blend the rest of the ingredients together (but not the gluten).  You can then add the gluten and rest of the flour and knead the dough for about five minutes.  After enough kneading, the dough should be pliable and springy, so I've read.  Let the dough rise in a warm place or oven, until about double the size.  Then proceed to divide, brush with egg, let rise again, and bake as mentioned above.

I have attached a video of last week's snowstorm, blizzard. To cook up that storm to perfection was an involved process, really the culmination of years of work. This is a credit to the developers of weather forecast technology, including a greater ability to assimilate (add) observations to the forecast models, and further improvements in the ability to simulate the finer scale cloud processes that brought our snow.

In fact, I remember experiments from the 1980s (referred to as "GALE")  to measure and better understand the finer scale physical processes that lead to the genesis and intensification of east coast US storms,  These experiments helped enable the development of improved weather forecasting technology, and started the process towards improved wintertime forecasts. In fact, I remember that the winter of 1992-93 was the first time forecasters in the New York Metropolitan area were able to predict the day to day arrival of winter storms.  Here and in our time, we make use of forecasts made by the National Center for Environmental Prediction covering the globe and combine them with our very high resolution forecast, but limited area models to predict our wintertime storms.

The video was taken in Efrat by a colleague from our Israel Winter Weather group (now four people).  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJpOO5-6Mp4&ab_channel=jconsor) We finally had more to do than talk about snow, but actually measure it.  It actually happened, and happened as forecast.  Interestingly, the snow forecast amounts were quite sensitive to elevation, even in Gush Etzion, where about 25 cm occurred in Efrat, but 30 to 40 cm was estimated in Alon Shavut, for example,  which is higher than Efrat. Moreover, the snow in Alon Shavut was more powdery than the snow in Efrat (my kids really enjoyed throwing snowballs at me, but it wasn't so easy to throw snowballs at Dads in Alon Shavut).

The next period of stormy weather should occur mid next week, when the weather should turn chillier and rainier again.

Barry Lynn 

Weather It Is (Strong Thunderstorms)

 Good Morning:

1) Possibility of strong thunderstorms, mostly across southern areas this morning, possibly moving into central areas this afternoon.

A very strong upper level low is moving across the Sinai today and will transition across southern Israel this afternoon and evening.  The strong temperature gradient between the surface and upper atmosphere, combined with dust, creates the possibility of strong thunderstorms.  These storms can produce flooding rains and hail.

Unlike the first part of February, the atmospheric pattern is set up for a period of cool weather with periodic episodes of precipitation into the first week of March.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Blizzard Warning)

 Good Morning:

A blizzard warning for Jerusalem and surrounding areas for this afternoon and evening.

The latest forecasts have shifted the center of cold air tens of kilometers southward from the forecast of yesterday morning.  This returns us closer to our original forecast of heavy snow for the Jerusalem area as well as the surrounding locations. The difference is only a small fraction of the amplitude of the atmospheric winter wave, but has very important implications for our weather.

Low pressure moving southeastward across Cyprus will reach our area this afternoon. Already, snow flurries are falling in the Jerusalem area as temperatures are near freezing.

As the coldest air moves in, winds will increase to 50 to 60 km/h, with higher gusts.  Heavy snow and wind should combine to create blizzard conditions across the central mountain areas, including Jerusalem as the afternoon moves on to evening.

The snow should start this afternoon and accumulate on colder surfaces. Late this afternoon and night, the snow should accumulate generally 5 to 10 cm in the Jerusalem area, with between 10 and  20 cm in higher elevation areas of the city boundaries.  In the area of the Shomron 15 to 20 cm,  while in Gush Etzion 30 to 40 cm.  Northern areas, such as Meron and Sefad should receive between 5 and 20 cm, depending on elevation.

The storm will abate on Thursday morning, but it should remain cold and wet (with rain, rather than snow, to follow on Friday/Shabbat.

Be well,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Significant Snow)

 Good Morning:

The Global Forecasts have come into better agreement, but in the direction of the colder GFS (American Model).

Our own forecasts are indicating a significant snow for the Jerusalem area, with the highest elevations exceeding 30 cm in the Tuesday night to Wednesday night timeframe.  Jerusalem is also expected to see significant amounts of snow.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Winterstorm is Likely)

 

Good Sunday Morning:

Another day closer, and a bit more information to pass on.  There have been some fluctuations in the weather forecast.  Even so, the United States's Global Forecast Ensemble System suggests that the atmospheric conditions will be favorable for significant snowstorm in Jerusalem and surrounding areas on Wednesday of this week..

Our high-resolution forecast shows snow and ice developing in the mountains of Safed in the afternoon on Tuesday and spreading to the mountains of the Shomron by and during Tuesday night. As for Jerusalem, only light precipitation mounts are shown as the clock moves towards 2 A.M. It's at that time that the storm should advance southward as we move into Wednesday, which will most likely lead to snow developing late Tuesday night and lasting into Wednesday night in the central mountain areas.

For those amateur meteorologists who want to see the publicly available data, they can peruse the web site https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ and click below the map for our region.  You'll find forecast maps labeled "Global" and "Ensemble." These models predict the synoptic (large scale) patterns that can bring us our inclement weather. Forecast centers produce both sets of forecast maps, but the first set are their best versions of the model, and are a single forecast for the upcoming days.  The second set are multiple forecasts made with the same model or a degraded version of the model (e.g., larger grid-spacings between forecast points). In these forecasts, small uncertainties are usually introduced into the measured observations.  This second set gives us an idea of the likelihood of the forecast event happening.

There are some differences among the models, among which the GFS/GEFS (US), GMC/GPES (Canadian), ECMWF/EPS (European) are considered the best.  Right now, the GFS and GEFS predict the heaviest potential snowfalls.  We tend to follow the GFS and the GEFS in this time frame (within a few days of a storm). In fact, our experience tells us that the GFS is a very accurate forecast model within the timeframe of a few days closest to a major snow or rain event.  Moreover, the European models are shifting in the direction (cold) of the GFS (and GEFS).  Regardless, the differences do make one pause.

We'll see how the forecasts progress as we move into Monday.

There is a lot of pressure being a meteorologist in Israel.  We're a small country living next to a relatively small body of water, which leads to generally small scale meteorological features (called mesoscale) that can bring extremely heavy rains, or even snow that falls like someone dumping flour from the sky.

I find -- and I am not alone among forecasters -- that the intensity of the situation can affect my sleeping patterns.  For instance, last night I dreamed that I had to make a forecast for heavy snow, but couldn't find the day of the forecast on the weather map.

How did I ever get involved in forecasting weather?  The main reason was disappointment.  The forecasts in the 1970s were generally terrible. It would rain when it was forecast to snow, and vice-versa.  After one such event, I asked my sixth grade teacher why it didn't snow, and on his prompting I was off to the library to learn about weather.

Back then, before the advent of the internet, one just needed a barometer, thermometer, and wind vane.  My Dad kindly placed the wind vane on the top of my childhood home (the roof! See picture), and with the "Sager Weather Forecaster" book I was off.  The world became my scientific laboratory.

But, what is my interest in snow?  For me, I was always fascinated by the different shapes that fell from the sky.  Supposedly, not a single flake -- like (most) people -- has ever been the same as any other. There are hexagons, stars, and even suns. Snowflakes fall so, so slowly, as if they have nowhere to go, but to relax and watch each other enjoy the day off from school.  As the snow falls, the world quiets until all one can hear are the whoosh of their filling parachutes as each flake breaks before landing.  In time, the Cubist world our mind sees is replaced by the softness of an Impressionist painting .

To know that such a world is likely just a few days away, is something wonderful to be able to share.

Let's hope we're up to the task!

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The Threat Grows)

 Good Evening:

The threat of a major winter snowstorm has grown since our previous update.

However, there is still some disagreement among the global forecast models concerning the positioning of the trough of very cold air.

Based on the American GEFS, there should be heavy snow from late Tuesday into late Wednesday, possibly greater than 30 cm of snow (even in Jerusalem).  However, the European model and to some extent the Canadian global models are showing a shallower trough.  Their forecast solutions would lead to a slushy accumulations in Jerusalem with more snow in Gush Etzion.  Interestingly, the operational version of the Canadian model  (at higher resolution than its ensemble) is showing about 20 cm of snow, so that favors more the GEFS forecast.  

Differences in the model forecasts can be due differences in the grid spacing in the forecasts, data assimilation schemes, and model physics.  As we've noted before, the Siberian trough is originating from an area with less data coverage, making the forecast more difficult.  Regardless, we see a lot of potential for a snowstorm. 

Tomorrow morning, we should have more information to pass along. We'll then be able on Monday to offer our own snow forecast accumulations from our high resolution forecast model. 

Shavua Tov,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Winter Storm Approaches)

 Good Morning:

A lot of words have been written over the last several years, and a lot of (snow) hopes dashed.

We hope that this will not now be the case.

Since the beginning of February, we've been speaking about a cold period to arrive in mid-February.  I wish I could have told my blueberry plants to hold off, despite the warm weather, on blooming, but they don't have access to our weather discussion.

An unusual series of events has created changes in the global circulation that should lead to our best chance for snow in Jerusalem since 2015.  The same series of events, initiated by a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW), has led to unusually long snowy period in the New York Metropolitan Area. It basically involves (as shown in the graphic from Jonathon Hoffman's Facebook page www.facebook.com/jerusalemwf) a large ridge of higher pressure extending from Alaska, across the north pole, through northern Europe and into the southern Mediterranean.  To the west of the European high is very strong low pressure that has become stationary.  To the east, the disturbance in the Jet Stream caused by the SSW has pushed plenty of cold air southward into Siberia, which extends in the  graphic southward from Siberia into our area.  Indeed, the forecast is for unusually cold winter air to flow into our area starting on Tuesday the 16th.   

Currently, the forecast is indicating the greatest chance of accumulating snow on Wednesday the 17th of February into Thursday the 18th of February.   The unusually cold weather should remain with us until Sunday the 21st. 

It often happens that the first cold wave is followed by another a couple of days later.  There is a hint of this, which would bring back snow or a very cold rain on Shabbat.  

Keep in mind that the potential snow event is about a week into the future, and only in December of 2013 was I able to forecast snow in Jerusalem so far in advance. Yet in that sense, such a strong signal is a positive sign in terms of forecast accuracy.   Also, the global forecast models have improved dramatically since then, which gives us greater confidence in the forecast even a week in advance.  This also enables even greater accuracy in our high resolution forecasts that we'll create just prior to event, if the situation still warrants.

Until then, be well,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Storm Threatens)

Good Afternoon: 

A storm threatens.

As noted, yesterday turned out to be a day of intense storms.  Plenty of moisture and dust from a southern moving storm combined to invigorate a line of convective storms that swept through central and southern areas early afternoon.  Here in Efrat, the rain literally poured down the windows, as if a giant car wash had come to wash off all the homes.  My rain gauge showed forty five millimeters of rain, which also included quite a bit of hail.  More than 207,000 lightning events were recorded from Egypt to Lebanon, from the eastern Mediterranean to Jordan and Saudia Arabia. About a third of these were cloud to ground lightning, as measured on Earth Networks Global-and the Israel Total Lightning Network. 

Although interspersed with dry periods,  this season's accumulated rain has been close to or above normal, putting to question the expected (or hoped) for value of seasonal forecasts (which were for much below normal precipitation). Yet, our Israel Winter Weather group has noted aspects of the forecast map that are consistent with periods of below normal rainfall, and unusually warm weather (after all, the Almond trees are blooming). 

Another dry period will be in store for us, which should last into mid next week.  Then, the Global ensemble Forecast Systems model suggests a rainy period.  The rain should herald a period of wet weather and falling temperatures.  In fact, we see the first signal on the forecast maps for an accumulating snow during the mid month period.  Hints of colder and possibly snowy weather have  been appearing for several days now, but the latest forecasts show the possibility of significantly deeper trough and colder weather than we've seen this year.  

I'm giving the heads up because I've come into some criticism in the recent past.  It started last Friday evening when I put on my coat, took my prayer book, and headed out to Minyon.  I was -- I admit -- a bit surprised to find that it was raining.  I returned home only to meet my wife, who said the whole episode was a big embarrassment (for her), and that she wouldn't be able to go shopping on Sunday for fear of meeting someone who might have seen her husband out in the rain, searching for a Minyon.  

Then, the next day, I learned that I am the cause of marital "strife."  The husband, I was told, follows my discussion, while the wife follows the weather page (weather-it-is-israel.com).  For cost reasons, the weather page's forecast is based on a single forecast, while my discussion for several days out is based on an ensemble of forecasts.  The result can be that a forecast discussion for Shabbat can speak about the chance of rain, while the website forecast shows just a sunny day.  I suggested to the couple that not everything is black and white, and that each one has to give a little to make things works.

In fact, a little forgetfulness can go a long way.  I appreciate it when people forget my forecasts when they are not so accurate (e.g., wrong).  I don't mind if they remember the good ones, but the point is to forget the so-called bad, and not to embellish.

For instance, The New York Times report on a hammer attack in Midtown Manhattan revealed how witnesses can embellish their memories to fit a preconceived narrative.  In the reported story, both persons saw parts of the attack, but not all of it (https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/15/nyregion/witness-accounts-in-midtown-hammer-attack-show-the-power-of-false-memory.html).  One thought the police had shot a fleeing man, while another thought the police shot the same man while he was on the ground in handcuffs.  Cameras clearly showed, though, that the man tried to attack another police officer with a hammer, who was then shot in chase, and handcuffed only afterwards. The article suggests that our minds partake in this charade in order to make sense out of quickly changing events, especially in times of stress.

While much of our daily existence is not as exciting as a city chase, we all should keep in mind that our memories serve us, but sometimes our memories are simply the world we wish could be.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Floods Possible)

 Good Afternoon:

A storm moving across the southern Mediterranean sea will bring moisture and thunderstorms, with the heaviest rain over southern areas.   Winds will transport plenty of dust into the developing storms, making for a greater likelihood of lightning and hail, and flash flooding.  The period of wet weather should last from sometime tonight into Friday afternoon. 

The warm weather will come to an end as the storm moves in, but will return for early next week. This warm period will bring unusually warm weather for this not so late winter period. 

Hopefully, the plants will ignore the coming warm weather because there looks to be  a return to wetter and more chilly weather for the mid month period.

Barry Lynn