Saturday, May 31, 2014

Weather It Is (Hold Your Hats)

Good Evening:

After a blistering (actually just hot) day, we're headed on a steep slope to winter.  Temperatures will drop 10 or so degree tonight and tomorrow temperatures will rise only to about 20 C in the higher elevations and low 20s in the central plains.  

The winter-like air is courtesy of a high pressure/low pressure combination.  High pressure is located to our north and the relatively cool air flowing to the south helps to periodically spin up a low pressure area.  When the low pressure moves by, the winds switch to the west and north drawing in the cool air.  However, ahead of the low, the winds are more easterly and it warms up quite suddenly and feels a lot more like summer.

We'll have another strong upward tick in the temperatures in time for Shavuot, but then head back down again right after as another low moves in.  These low pressure areas are moisture starved, so we don't see anything more than a light shower with them (did you smell the rain this morning?). We still don't see any real summer on the way.

Barry

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Weather It Is (Saying Your Wrong, Sort of)

Good Afternoon:

Today someone approached me and said that I am unusual in that I know when to say I was wrong (at least in regard to a weather forecast).  Of course, I immediately objected (to the implication that my forecast was wrong).

We all know that (apparently) the happiest people are those engaged to be married, and yet an ever increasing number of couples will end up divorced.  Following my scientific nature, I asked my father what is the secret to staying married (for so long, Thank God). His answer: "stay away from arguments."

How does one stay away from arguments? My first answer: recognise how different men are from women. For example, what does a husband do when his wife gives him an earful about how she feels?  He tries to fix the problem, without realising that the he's trying to close the barn door after the horses have already left.  Trying to fix the problem is a form of arguing.  For a women (and I'm not, so my apologies for what follows -- in case I'm wrong), fixing the problem is too late.  Better a sympathetic ear now and extra effort later to keep from causing the problem again.

Speaking of problems, there aren't many weatherwise -- unless you mind the wind.  This windy and cool respite, though, will be short-lived because were going to end up a few degrees warmer than yesterday just a couple of days from now.  But, then a couple days after this we're going to drop down by almost 15 C to even cooler weather than today.  June will come in feeling like early April or even late March!

Taking a look at the moisture fields, there could be some light drizzle as moisture works its way in with the cold air. However, we don't see any moisture at 700 mb, so this is not a deep layer of moisture.

Looking out late next week it's back up again, but then back down again.  Better to back down then to make an argument (it's harder, but smarter).

Barry Lynn

Monday, May 26, 2014

Weather It Is (Here and There (2) -- Weddings and Jerusalem)

Coming out of the Gush Etzion  theatre centre my wife had occasion to tell me (in Hebrew, though) "Don't look backwards if you're worried about tripping over something in front of you." A pearl of wisdom.  

Yet, good scientists often look backwards in order to make better science going forward (better known as making use of experience), and meteorologists are no exception.  This seems like a bit of a contradiction because we're always making predictions about the future -- that is, we're looking forward in time. On the other hand, experience is not really useful for looking back but really for looking forward.

But of course, we're never really certain about the future, and I am fortunate to work in a field where we can more or less assess the probabilities of what will be weather wise, and even though we can't be certain, we can be smart.  

For instance, while I am pretty certain that we're not going to have any summertime, it does look like we're going to start to feel more like summer (but not all at once as tomorrow's warmer temperatures will be replaced the day after with today's more mild temperatures -- but then it will only to get even warmer the next day.  

Yet,  just like Kenny Roger's "you got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, ... You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table," we see an unseasonably high chance of showers to start the next month associated with colder air seeping southward from Central Europe.  While this is far from certain, and I am not saying it will, it just might rain (or at least present the potential for flooding).

I am often asked if it is "weather-safe" to make a wedding at this time of year.  I always answer that the odds or in the asker's favor.  I had the occasion to attend an engagement party, and it is amazing to see just how much smiling goes on (between the bride and groom to be).  There is probably no greater blessing in the world, and I believe that what makes us strong as a people is just how much we appreciate our blessings like these and those that hopefully flow henceforth.  These may be the blessings of family, or even the blessings of our place, as celebrated through our music (and no better example was the music we heard last night to celebrate Jerusalem at the Gush Etzion theatre ("Ensemble Nigun Yerushalmi").  I don't really think the world understands just how strong our attachment is to our history, our place, and (God willing) our future.


Barry Lynn

Friday, May 23, 2014

Weather It Is (Here and There (1))

Good Afternoon:

We're still enjoying a relatively cool spring, which is really good for mitigating water stress in plants (and we've got plenty potential for that because of our lack of winter rain).

Looking ahead, we don't see any real change, other than a bump up and then fall off in temperatures by about mid-week.  A bit farther ahead (or is it further?), there is a slight upward trend upwards in temperature, but it is not a linear (or even certain) thing.

These days when there isn't very much weather one has the opportunity to ponder. The other day I was "accused" of faking sympathy.  I was hearing that the countertops were too crowded.  Since this was the indirect result of Pesach reordering (that is: mess moving from one place to another, better known as entropy), there was really little I could do.  Without any obvious solution in mind, the best I could do was express my despair over the state of the counters.  However, it is not in the nature of men to dwell on unsolvable problems, but still (for Shalom Bayit) the necessary words of sympathy must and were expressed.

This reminds me of the time many years ago that I learned that "men need appreciation and women need understanding."  Immediately, I had the opportunity to put these wise words into action when I got an earful about how many diapers had been changed that morning (but not by me: who was taking a walk where I had the occasion to learn something new -- see above).  The old me would have said: "well, I changed a diaper yesterday, and took out the trash the day before. I also cleaned the kitchen..," all solutions to the problem of too much housework to do but also useful drivel (to wives at least).  Instead, I said: "wow, this seems like a really hard morning for you," which got a smile in return.

Of course, it is not enough to say you understand, it is also necessary at times (for men) to express understanding.  So, this got me thinking and I realised that with a little more rearranging I could clear the countertops, and I did.   True, I solved a problem, but I also expressed real understanding.

This (in a nutshell) is why marriage can be a challenge -- at least for men.  More on this later.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Sunday, May 18, 2014

Weather It Is (Warning: Fire Weather)

Good Evening:

We will have cold temperatures with strong winds tonight.  This means that one must exercise extreme care or a lit fire may spread quickly to its surrounding area and beyond.

The strong winds are associated with low pressure centered over Cyprus.  This low pressure area will remain with us during the week.  It is relatively dry system, but rain chances will actually increase by mid-week (with upper level cooling) and so will the potential for a heavier (but localised) shower.

Looking ahead, we don't see any evidence for summer making an arrival.  This is in contrast to the far western US (especially California) where temperatures have been in the triple digits under extreme drought conditions.

Barry Lynn

Friday, May 16, 2014

Weather It Is (A Race (Or Not))

Good Evening:

To run a really fast race, i.e., to succeed, one needs the wind at his (or her) back. Or at least, one must feel like the wind is at ones back.  Our weather doesn't seem to be racing anywhere.  Just as it warms up a bit, the temperatures will head downhill and tomorrow's temperatures will probably be 5 to 10 degrees colder than today.  There doesn't seem like there is any moisture with this system, but we'll keep an eye out.  Any moisture influx could trigger a brief, but heavy shower.

Looking further out, we don't see any return to what might be considered "summer" weather.  Yes, it will warm up a bit, but temperatures should be quite comfortable.  This is a good thing because less water is evaporated under cooler conditions.

Today I was a last moment addition to the 5 km running pack.  Suddenly, my feet felt very light and I ran faster than I've run in years.  It was an amazing feeling passing most of the people on the way to the finish line.  One gets a very good feeling.  Yet, there were those I didn't see (to pass) because they finished "too" far ahead.  So, in the end, I was really racing against myself (like I used to do when I was much younger and even faster).  One wonders though if life is really about racing, or really about being directed towards a goal?  But, even so, sometimes the most rewarding experience is actually stopping to look around, to say hello to your children (and wife, of course!), and even to ask your neighbour if he needs a hand.  Racing is fine, and goals are fine, but sometimes the best goals are achieved by simply stopping and seeing where one can be of the most help or a just a good companion.  It's all a bit ironic! As you see, racing makes one a bit like Charlie Brown.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Sunday, May 11, 2014

Weather It Is (Cold, But Not To Cold For Caterpillars)

Good Afternoon:

Another weather system will move into our area later tonight and tomorrow.  However, this system -- unlike the last -- does not have a good source of moisture.  But, it is relatively cold (even at upper levels of the atmosphere), so strong (but likely) brief (but localised) showers will develop tomorrow.

After the passage of this storm, we will slowly warm up to mild temperatures by week's end.  However, like reaching the top of a roller coaster,  we'll head back to cool weather again by next Sunday.

Oblivious to all of these changes are our new friends and family: the caterpillars (Zakalim in Hebrew).  They seem to thrive in this up and down weather, and have taken up residence on our "Ruda" plants in the front garden.  As my wife pointed out, these are not like "Sabras."  Sabras are actually a plant, and they are very prickly. Instead, Israeli caterpillars are very soft to the touch (unlike American caterpillars who are more like Sabra plants).

Besides wonder about the significance of that..,  I had a few questions.  I wondered how all of these Zakalim made their way to our front garden.  After all, they don't have wings like their "parents," the butterfly.  Second, I wondered, which came first, the chicken or the egg, or really: the egg, the caterpillar, or the butterfly.  How does evolutionary theory explain this?  My youngest daughter had the simplest answer and it is based on the premise that "behind every complex system is a simpler system that works better" -- or in our case: simpler answer.  She said: "God made everything," so there is no mystery.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, May 8, 2014

Weather It Is (That (Blessing) Was Really Nice)

Good Evening:

There was something really special about the nighttime strong storms and subsequent pitter-patter of raindrops on our roof.  It has been reported that this was the heaviest May rain (http://www.timesofisrael.com/highest-may-rainfall-ever-recorded-thursday/).  Strangely it took several large tour groups by surprise, and they even needed to be rescued.

One might ask: is rainfall after Passover a blessing (we pray for dew, not rain)? What about after a winter drought?

The US government just released a report speaking about changes in the intensity and severity of recent weather, associated with greenhouse gases induced climate change (National Climate Assessment). Does this event qualify?  It was actually an unusually cold event fed by unusually moist air from the tropics (and warming temperatures lead to greater evaporation).

Looking ahead, it is going to stay unseasonably cool for several days, and there is a chance for isolated showers or thunderstorms as the upper atmosphere remains unusually cold.  When temperatures do eventually warm up,  it is not at all clear that they will stay warm.  "Some light it hot, some like it cold, some like nine days in the pot," our changing climate seems to have it all.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Weather It Is (A Cross-Walk Thank you!)

Good Evening:

This morning I stopped to let my son cross in front of the boys school in the Dekel.

He was so excited that he ran across the cross-walk without looking.

Thank God -- the opposing car saw that I had stopped and stopped too -- otherwise (God Forbid) this would have been the last time he forgot.

So, please stop at cross-walks when the car in the opposing lane has stopped. It has and can save our children's lives.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Extended Flood Potential)

Good Afternoon:

High pressure to the north is feeding energy (cold) air into a developing low pressure area over the eastern Mediterranean.  This system will tap both tropical and Mediterranean moisture, and already thunderstorms have developed over the Sinai. Flooding from the Golan southward to the Arava is a strong possibility later today into Thursday afternoon.  In fact, the relatively warm weather combined with high humidity increases the probability of heavy rain.

The storm will remain for a couple of days, and then dissipate as the high moves eastward. Eventually, warm air will flow around the high and low pressure located to our east, but another high mid-late week may spin up another storm, preventing any real hot weather from moving in.

Looking at the probabilities of rain, they are 50% or higher in many locations.  This reflects the general convective nature of the precipitation.  Of course, it will either rain or not.  This is one nice thing about weather forecasting: it's not so hard to assign blame -- I mean a check mark or not.

This is why I think it funny that we're getting blamed for the end of negotiations.  Since then, we've seen articles suggesting that no, it was the Palestinians who were obturate and that they planned to quit along. So, how is that we get blamed for ending the negotiations when they quit?  This seems like a big X for whoever decides these things.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Flood Potential)

Good Morning:

We've been speaking about this upcoming weather event for several days now, and it has the potential to bring a heavy cold rain with a strong possibility of flooding, beginning down south in the afternoon, and in the center and north towards evening.

Cold air is moving in, and in fact it may get cold enough for a late wet season snowfall on the higher elevations of the Hermon.  This is an unusual spring time system in that there is strong support for this weather event in both the lower, middle, and upper levels of the atmosphere (850, 700, and 500 mb). Temperatures should drop off by 10 to 15 C by tomorrow morning, as both cold air and plenty of moisture moves in. The rain will begin over the south, as there will be moisture support from the Atlantic ocean and eventually the Mediterranean.

Because we're in the warm season -- but this is a cold season rain -- there is the potential for strong thunderstorms, which will bring the potential for flooding rains, especially in the Arava and area of the Dead Sea.

A chance of showers should continue into Thursday.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, May 3, 2014

Weather It Is (Heat Warnings...)

Good Evening:

Heat warnings throughout the country through Tuesday, and in the Galilee and Jordan Valley into Wednesday. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 30s in the central mountains and reach to near 40 C or above just inland of the sea coast.  The only saving "grace" will be that humidities should be quite low.

Late Tuesday (Yom HaAzmahut) an area of strong low (cold) pressure will move eastward and replace the thermal (desert) low pressure area responsible for our high heat.  With it, there will be a possibility of rain on Wednesday into Thursday.  The relatively cool weather should persist into the end of the week.

Barry Lynn

Friday, May 2, 2014

Weather It Is (Hanging on...)

Good Afternoon:

The weather is really nice, but will warm up a bit and even be a bit on the hot side over the next few days. We're still looking for a change in the weather to move in during Yom HaAzmahut.  However, the "chilly" weather should hold off until Wednesday, and any rain showers as well.

So, the weather is cooperating, except for a bit of a breeze. On the other hand, a good breeze is good kite flying weather (especially for those that might resemble our flag).

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Thursday, May 1, 2014

Weather It Is (Take a A Left and Then A Right)

Good Morning:

Spring has sprung and it's a dandy.  However, it's not enough to get a good hit (or even a big hit) once in a while; rather it's consistency that matters.  Someone should tell that to our weather.

After today, we're going to head upwards (temperature wise), and each day through Yom HaZikkoron will be warmer than the day before.  However, by the evening (yes, it may just happen again!), the winds should begin to shift from warm southerlies to cooler (and stronger) westerlies.  Not only that, the temperatures should continue their downward trend all the way through Yom HaAzmahut into the following day.  Indeed, if the cards fall just right it may (just may) turn damp and rainy even sometime on Independence day.

We owe all this to a strengthening high pressure high pressure area building into eastern Europe, which will funnel relatively cold air southward, helping to spin up a broad area of more winter-like low-pressure over the eastern Mediterranean.

Do we expect summer to follow soon thereafter? Not yet.

Barry Lynn