Saturday, December 29, 2012

Weather It Is (A Cold New Years?)

Good evening:

After a lot of rain, and even frequent rain, the weather pattern has changed.  Until now, there was high pressure situated to our north, which would funnel cold air south into the Mediterranean region.  The mixture of cold and warm Mediterranean air in concert with an active storm track were the primary drivers in our wet weather.

A few days ago, the weather pattern changed and any storms approaching from the west needed to be really strong just to make it into our region. This so-so weather pattern should continue until just after New Years.

However, the majority of ensemble members are predicting that after a warm start to the New Year, the temperatures should start a downward trend, and then continue downward some more as a potent storm approaches early the next week.  Some ensemble members are even predicting this to be a winter storm with snow in the central mountains and other areas of similar latitude.

We'll have to stayed tuned -- but winter should return before too long.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Weather It Is (Very Rainy)

Good Morning:

A potent storm is on the way. As the storm moves in on Thursday, temperatures should drop by 7 or 8 C.  With the cold weather will come plenty of moisture, and heavy rain should fall south through Hebron and even to Beer-Sheva.  In the Jerusalem area, there will likely be more than 50 mm by sometime on Friday.  Flooding is a definite possibility in the Jordan and Dead Sea Valleys.

Afterwards, the temperatures will remain chilly, and then another storm should approach and drop temperatures again. Some of the ensemble forecasts even fall below freezing at 850 mb, so winter is advancing as we head towards the end of December.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Weather It Is (Down and Up and Down)

Good Evening:

A storm is on the way, and it should bring showers in two waves: first tonight and tomorrow morning, and then towards evening again.  Our ensemble forecasts show that temperatures will remain chilly for a few days, and then warm up sharply by mid-week before another round of colder air and rain heads our way.

I have to mention that today's sky was really blue, as a cold air circulates around higher pressure to our north.  It was really startling to see the contrast between yesterday's grey and today's blue, as if yesterday's grey had never happened -- except that we measured 0.27 inches of rain!

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Weather It Is (Snowballs?)

Good Evening:

The weather is certainly winter-like.  In fact, the warmup following today's storm won't last long and then we'll be impacted by a series of storms during the 6-8 days.  The details are not well know, yet, but the cold weather should last for a while.  There is some indication that temperatures will warm up sharply days 8-10, but there are still ensemble members that refuse to follow-suit.

The cold winter weather is courtesy of cold, high pressure situated to our north.  The air rotates counter clockwise around this area. At the same time, the jet stream is quite active and storms are moving down a trough of lower pressure over western Europe, southeastward into our area.  These storms draw their energy from the contrast in temperatures between the warm Mediterranean sea and the cold air to the north.

It's really too bad that it won't be cold enough for snow because a good snow ball fight between Palestinian rioters and our soldiers defending us from stone throwing, brick throwing, attempted suicide bombings, and shootings, would be preferable to their rock throwing.

Nevertheless, I'd like to suggest a possible solution to the rock throwing.  Here's why: 
“It’s our obligation to act with proportionality, and to fire our weapons only as a last resort,” the officer said. “We don’t want to hit innocent people.”  Okay, I accept that.  One should also keep in mind that the world power and sayers never condemn rock throwing.  In response, we should equip our soldiers with standard pitching machines, but instead of throwing baseballs these can throw rocks (back) at the rock-throwers.  Since these machines are quite powerful and can be fed a rock every few seconds this should discourage additional rock throwing -- hopefully in time to throw snowballs. 

It's a real problem when this type of behaviour is deemed acceptable -- it doesn't build confidence that we can ever live peacefully together or even apart.

Barry Lynn

Monday, December 10, 2012

Weather It Is (Wintertime?)

Good Evening and and a Happy Chanukah.

It has been suggested that we spell Chanukah, Xanukah, in order to more accurately reflect how to pronounce this holiday.  Well, we've decided to now spell weather --> xeather, which is how the voice sounds (a bit scratchy) as the wintertime dampness and cold sets in.

Rain will arrive shortly, and it will affect the country from just north of Beer Sheva to the far north, with snow possibly falling on the Hermon. The temperatures are about 5 Celcius at 850 mb and -5.5 at 700 mb, not ideal for a big snow on the "Mountain," but it is still early.

The other morning I went out and saw a red sky in the morning.  The phrase goes: "red sky in the morning sailors take warning, red sky in the evening, sailor delight" -- and here we are with a potent storm.

Looking further ahead, we're pretty sure that it will warm up quickly after the storm passes, but then temperatures should trend downwards the rest of the week.  The question is: do they trend sharply after that, with even the small possibility of snow in higher elevations to come?

We can only stay tuned to see how the weather trends.

Barry Lynn
Efrat

"Here's a note from a reader.


The version I learned from my (English) mother which rhymes more nicely goes:

"Red sky at night - shepherd's delight
Red sky in the morning, shepherd's warning"

Thanks for the Weather updates"

Here's another.

"Barry, it's meant to be a rhyme!
Red skies in the morning, sailors take warning.  Red skies at NIGHT, sailors delight."

Friday, December 7, 2012

Weather It Is (Winter and Snow-More)

Good Afternoon:

It's been quite stormy over the northern part of the country, including the coast from Netanya northward.  The rain has retreated a bit to the north, but the storm should move southward tonight and bring a dose of rain to a good part of the country. The rain should end during the day on Shabbat.

This storm will pass, and then the coldest air of the season will arrive on Tuesday, with strong rain, wind, and even snow on the Hermon.  There is a strong consensus in the ensemble forecast for this event to occur, so our Chanukah holiday will get off to a very wet start.

Temperatures should moderate after the next storm, but there will be periods of wet weather to follow (but some periods of wet weather implies times of dry, even "nice" weather).

After the political storm of last week, which I thought was poorly handled by our government, at least for the fact that we seemed to say yes, and then no (we're only planning to build) to the area of E1, I am  perplexed. This wishy washiness was very disturbing to me, and for this reason (and for the seemingly lack of resolution to the Gaza-Hamas problem), I am really not sure who to vote for.

As you are aware, there are no guarantees when it comes to our weather forecasts, although we do our very best to produce the best forecasts based on high-resolution models and an examination of global ensemble forecasts.  We also give our forecasts some personal time, in order to try to bring together various streams of information. On the other hand, when it comes to politics or political (life and death) decisions, it seems that there are those who are all too ready to act with certainty or encourage us to do so.

For instance, we're told that we (Israel) should put our trust in the International Community to look after our welfare, if God forbid, their advice were to lead us to distress (or worse). Yet, I can confidently say (even without a computer model) that this is not a wise course of action.

Several days ago, the Jerusalem Post reported that PM Netanyahu requested permission from neighbouring countries to attack Syrian chemical sites before these deadly ingredients were mixed to form their deadly toxin.  This was refused.

At the same time, President Obama warned the Assad government that there would be grave consequences if it would deploy these chemical weapons (of mass destruction).

Now, the ingredients are mixed and the bombs are ready to go, and any action -- if it comes -- will be too late for the Syrian people.

On our side, the Hamas Palestinian military wing prepares for the next round of fighting, importing even larger missiles than before.  The West Bank Palestinian political wing (headed by Abbas) continues its diplomatic warfare against us. 

The world political bodies tell us to make peace with the Palestinians, to give them an independent state both in Gaza and the West Bank -- a state that then would be able to import (sneak in) missiles both to Gaza and the West Bank (even if there is a disarmament agreement). We're also told that the international community will provide us with security guarantees.  I suppose that they'll even offer to protect or assure us that any Palestinian towns to be built on the road to Maale Adumin will never be a threat (unlike our not to distant past).

This is the same international community that failed to present past genocides (including our own during the Holocaust) and stands by while another one is about to happen.  Grave consequences -- when they happen -- usually happen to the victims.  

I realise that it is not an ideal situation for the West Bank Palestinians, but life isn't about being fair, but rather it is a a choice of survival.  We, as the Israeli people, should choose not to be victims again-- say no to a state of Palestine in the West Bank!

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Weather It Is (It's Raining!)

Our weather pattern has really changed for the better.  In fact, the weather over most of Europe is quite cold, and it is this cold air that continues to "dig" southward.  As it does so, the atmosphere forms "troughs," which are associated with diverging air.  Divergence leads to rising air and as this air flows over the sea it forms clouds, which then precipitate.

This weather patterns looks to be a somewhat locked in, and this is where the problems start.  I don't mean the rain, which should continue periodically for the next two weeks.  I mean the rather frosty reception our government (country?) is getting for deciding enough is enough.  I mean, if they (the Palestinians) won't negotiate with us, then let us act as if they don't exist (i.e, don't let them factor into our decisions about where to build or not).

On the otherhand, the fastest way for the Palestinians to stop our building on what they consider their land would be to simply agree that this land is theirs and our is ours, and that their Palestinians neighbours living elsewhere should live in their country not ours.  However, the Palestinians refuse to let us be -- they insist that their citizens must be able to live in our country.  and they and peacemaking are like a glacier that moves very little or not at all -- except to the UN (where they hope to have their country and then ours).

Even the rain has brought controversy.  A lot of the rain falling in the mountains on the eastern side of the old Green Line is running off into Israel proper. The Palestinians are talking about going to the ICC. accusing us of stealing their rain....

While, at least it is raining, and so far the seasonal forecast of a wet winter is coming true.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Weather It Is (A Rollercoaster)

Good Morning:

The weather is certainly nice, and it is even nicer to head out without a fear of clear-air-missiles suddenly raining down.  In fact, if one takes a look at the 850 mb temperatures under "GEFS-Forecasts") one will see that there is great consensus that the weather will be quite simply superb -- and even warm by several degrees.

However, every climb usually comes to an end -- eventually, and these same temperatures show a rollercoaster plunge after several days to more winter like temperatures.  Accordingly, the precipitation forecasts show a big rain event on the way.

As I mentioned, there is a consensus among forecasts that it will warm up quite a bit, and then turn colder with rain.  There are a few outliers in the forecast -- just like there have been a few Palestinian terrorist attacks, despite the ceasefire.  In fact, one of them, if not for a severe defence put up by the would be victim, might have ended up like another Itamer.

We've got amazing weather here -- it is hardly ever dangerous (unlike in other locations).  Wouldn't it be wonderful if the neighbours were equally as tame?

Barry Lynn

Monday, November 26, 2012

Weather It Is (Wintertime)

Good Evening:

The nip we spoke about sometime back has turned into a nap, or a prolonged period of weather that requires a coat of some sort.  Weak low pressure continues its eastward track through our area and the rain showers associated with it will also move away.  Then, the weather will slowly transition from sunny and cool to rainy and cold.  It isn't going to happen very quickly, but it should happen nevertheless.

It's actually been quite winter-like in other parts of Europe for the last few weeks.  Strangely, even though winter has  been occurring over there, we were still getting small systems bringing us cool temperatures and rain (instead of warm and dry). It's almost as if we've been a weather island apart from the main going ons elsewhere.  Well, this should change, although the weather should warm a bit just ahead of the on-rushing storm.

Barry Lynn

Friday, November 23, 2012

Weather It Is (Storms on the Way)

Good Morning:

Our forecasts are indicating rain, lightning, and thunder will be moving into our area today.  There will periods of rain, some of them heavy, with the potential for flooding in low-lying areas.

The rain is courtesy of several low pressure areas that will move in from the west along with upper level instability.  The rain is actually forecast to continue for several days, although not every area will see rain at the same time.

So, our winter is off to a rainy wet start; nothing makes us happier than a good rain to fill the streams, rivers, and lakes.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Weather It Is (Rain, and Then More Rain)

Good Evening:

The very pleasant weather (which is quite conducive to an air attack) is coming to an end. Does this mean that the ceasefire we read about is just around the corner (like next winter's snow) will happen simply by default?

I don't have an answer to this question, but I would like to mention that the weather will become rather wet starting Thursday night.  This storm is a bit strange, as it will first impact the area around Gaza southward, and then pivot (like a pirouetting missile) north (to Tel-Aviv) and eastward.  This is consistent with the growth of the Hamas missile menace, which was easier to predict (way back when) than next weeks weather.   I suppose so that just as we like to convince ourselves that indeed the next storm will bring a long awaited snow,  there were those who were convinced that the missile storm would never materialise.

The good news is that the rain should continue into next week and also spread into northern parts of the country as well.  This we can predict with greater certainty than when the war will end (but, hopefully, with the surrender of Hamas & Company before it does).  One last comment: it's always better to build homes than missile silos, and invest in businesses than missiles, and study to be doctors than ordinance engineers.  With the rain, perhaps we can drop some leaflets with these suggestions.

Barry Lynn

Monday, November 19, 2012

Weather It Is (A Spitting Image)

Good Afternoon

The weather seems to be moving towards wintertime, but it is doing it gradually. Over the next week, cooler air will continue to filter in at higher levels of the atmosphere, touching off showers from time to time.

Some of these showers will be steadier and heavier, like the rain in Eilat yesterday (and near Arad).  Because the cooler air is aloft, it makes for the potential for convective rain, meaning the tall cloud-towers that stand pretty-much straight up (from a distance).

Heavy rain can lead to flooding, and this can be dangerous.  In areas where there is little vegetation, rain amounts can be as little as 5 mm and it can still flood (like in the Arava).

Size doesn't always matter.  For instance, while the Gazan's launch missile after missile (of the motor variety), one young man decided to launch his own missile at a passing car near Tekoa Motzei Shabbat.  The rock smashed the car and the driver (Shimon Ben-Hamu (23)) was killed.  Murder is murder, whether with a rock or a missile -- the intent is the same.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Weather It Is (Cats and Dogs)

Good Afternoon:

The weather is really delightful.  Unfortunately, the skies are raining missiles.   I'm not sure where the phrase: "Raining Cats and Dogs" came from as opposed to "The Dog Days of Summer," or "Let Sleeping Dogs Lie."

In any case, our Hamas neighbours have really taken offence that we've taken the offence against their incessant missile attacks.  Of course, if we simply shoot back for a while, without going the final step to remove Hamas from power and arrest its cohorts then I can predict -- like I can predict that tomorrow will be another sunny day -- that the rocket attacks will start again (and so will our weak response).

So, where does that leave us:  a few days from some light rain, and then some heavier rain towards the middle of next week.

Well, if our "Operation Pillar" doesn't turn into "Operation Heavy Rain," then this will all have been an exercise for next time.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Weather It Is (Is it Raining?)

Good Morning:

To those living on the left or western side of the country (and even the deep South (Eilat)) it has been raining.  In fact, there have been flooding rains and the streets of Eilat were under a foot or two of water.

Yet, on the right or eastern side of the country the rain has been more sparse.  Storms that move in promisingly from the west dissipate as they reach Jerusalem.  Our forecasts have and continue to show that these rain storms should persist into the mountains of Jerusalem.

I can only think that there is a  conflict of interest here. On the one hand, we have winter -- as represented by an early season storm -- and on the other hand we have fall (or summer) -- represented by the wind patterns of the desert.  They're duelling and on our side of the country the summer drying winds are winning out.

The only thing we can really forecast with certainty is that our winter rain storm will be mixed with missiles at times. Fortunately, shelters will be built.  Unfortunately, we'll need to forecast missiles in the summer-time even when the weather is in general good (that's because missile attacks are not really acts of weather as our government ministers belief, but acts of man -- and are actually subject to other acts of man to stop them (if only we had the will-power)).

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Weather It Is (A Real Rain!)

Good Afternoon:

A real winter storm is on its way.  What we would term a "Cyprus-Low" is forecast to form in the next few days bringing a two or three day period of rain to our area.  It may not be October, but we're still pretty early in November and it is very nice to see the weather map predict our first rain (and a lot of rain at that!).

Of course, several weeks ago the weather map also showed a period of rain, but the forecast evaporated with the rain (that never came).

The rainy weather should be followed by cooler weather and then a more tropical system may impact our weather towards mid-next week.

By that time, we'll probably know who will be the President of the USA.  Based on the forecasts (and even forecast ensembles) Mr. Obama should win again -- and become President Obama once again. Like we hope for a good rainy season each year, we can only hope that the President Obama we've seen more recently is the real Obama, and that he won't return to the previous incarnation (the one that made our Prime Minister take out the trash before he could come in for a visit).  How rude!

Barry Lynn

Monday, November 5, 2012

Weather It Is (The State of the Weather)

Good morning:

For quite some time, the real action has been elsewhere.  In fact, other than the Khassam Missile or two, there hasn't  been any real weather to speak of.  Fortunately, our government will be spending a rather hefty sum of money to build Khassam Missile shelters to protect against these unplanned and unforecast events.

The good news is that we might have some other types of weather soon, including the wet kind.  The weather pattern is finally becoming a bit more active, and it just may be active enough to bring our first real rain.  Looking further ahead, a much stronger storm might approach us a week hence.  However, I tend to put less stock in these long range forecasts than I do in a forecast for:  partly cloud with a 10% chance of large missiles.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Weather It Is (Headed Down)

Good Evening:

The summer is coming to an end.  Cooler air is moving in behind a weak front, and cooler air will continue to flow in over the next several days.

With the cooler air will come increasing amounts of moisture.  There isn't any big storm shown on the horizon, but weak low pressure will develop and then meander over the eastern Mediterranean.
Rain is on the horizon.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Weather It Is (That Wasn't)

Good Evening:

Mid last week, the forecast for this week was for steady rain -- all week.  However, by Friday the weather forecast had changed dramatically from rainy to sunny, and now it is suppose to be summer-like next week!

So, what happened?  My guess is that we had the same problem all the Whos down in Whoville had when they just weren't making enough noise. There was one slacker -- one child actually -- who just wasn't making any noise.  Likewise, when it came to Monday's prayer for a rainy winter, someone dropped the ball -- someone just didn't pray loud enough to bring the rain.

Of course, I don't really know what happened, but one can look at our ensemble (GEFS) forecasts to see just how many forecast ensemble members are predicting a change in the weather.  The greater the number, the more likely our weather will change as predicted.  Right now, most ensemble members are predicting it will be getting quite a bit warmer, at least for the next week to ten days.

That's it -- as our rainy weather slides by to our northwest and only minimally is forecast to impact the far north.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, September 30, 2012

Weather It Is (Hold on to your Skoch!)

Good Morning:

A quick moving "Sharav" like system will move quickly from south to north today, bringing with it some wind and a period of rain.  The rain should develop this morning over the south and then spread into the center and north in the late afternoon and evening, respectively. There will be some left over showers tomorrow, but the rest of Sukkot should be nice.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Weather It Is (Hot and then Rain?)

Good Morning:

The weather was certainly delightful -- it was in the mid to upper 20s here in the Jerusalem Mountains.  Hence, it was a great day for fasting on Yom-Kippur -- even taking a walk.

There certainly is a lot of hot air at the UN meeting, and it's quite disturbing the words spewing forth from the lips of the Iranian President.  My question is: when he lies does he believe them?

Mirroring what is going on there, our weather is going to get quite hot during the next few days as low pressure to our east blows hot air our way.  However, a strong cool front will move eastward into our area on Sunday or Monday and it is forecast to bring showers t for the beginning of Sukkot.  Will it be a wash-out? Stay tuned.

The inclement weather should pass in time for most of Sukkot to be wonderfully mild and sunny.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Weather It Is (Boy, it's hot!)

Good Afternoon:

Having just taken a very quick stroll out to the sidewalk, I can certainly attest that it feels hot.  I can imagine that there is a large power consumption as folks use both their ovens and air conditioners prior to the start of Rosh HaShanah.  The hot weather will persist through the holiday, as hot air flows our way around low pressure situated to our east.

However, by the stroke of Midnight at the end of the holiday, even the hot weather will wilt and a cool front should push in from the west.  As time goes on, high pressure may even set-up to our north, which will lead to an even more refreshing cooling, just in time to fast for Yom-Kippur.

I won't be publishing any blogs that suggest that there seems to be a general reaction among Muslims: when someone criticizes "them" for having violent tendencies, they get all hot under the collar (i.e, take offense), and then violently riot.  Living here in the Mid-East has done quite a lot to dissuade me from my liberal and all-accepting tendencies I had while growing up.  The irony is that there are quite a few Muslim leaders who quite frequently refer to the Jews as the "Sons of Pigs and Dogs," but we don't let their wind ruffle our hair.  I guess that with all their platitudes about how they're the "ones," they don't really believe it -- otherwise, why take offense from someone who doesn't rate the effort.

Hopefully, with the advent of fall, tempers will cool a bit.

L'Shanah Tova!

Barry Lynn



Friday, September 7, 2012

Weather It Is (There just isn't any)

Good Afternoon:

The weather looks summery, and it should continue this way for another week or so.  True, the temperatures should trend downwards a bit towards the end of next week, but they should pop back up just in time for the New Year -- as summer low pressure to our east reasserts itself .

In case you'll be flying to Teheran, Iran in the next 10 days, the weather looks great. By the way, two missiles from Gaza followed the weak westerly winds over the border fence and into Ashkelon.  Although technically these missiles came from Gaza, they were quite possibly manufactured in Iran. The city of Ashkelon is thinking of creating a third beach type to go with the secular and religious beaches, a beach for missiles from Gaza.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, September 2, 2012

Weather It Is (Is That A Nip?)

Good evening:

Well there certainly is a nip in the air as nightfall falls upon us.  In fact, with the window open and a stiff breeze from the West, one might begin to wonder if fall is indeed upon us.  Alas, it isn't so.  A quick glance at the weather pages and maps shows that summer will return as early as Tuesday, and that nip will only be a fond memory.

Of course we are headed into fall, so a few more nips or naps at a moments notice are to be expected.  Even so, one can easily remember that the weather at this time of year can turn from favoring a nap to something resembling a sauna where one wishes that one had not just drained the pool (whether your neighbor gave you permission or not to build it).

I have to mention that there has been quite a bit of nipping and napping at the feet of our Prime Minister and Defense Minister, who seem to be full of hot air when it comes to saying anything about Iran.  Of course, a nuclear explosion is no laughing matter, and I can completely appreciate that our two top-leaders are quite worried about a potential Iranian nuclear attack.  Of course, one does wonder why they do speak so much, and our Defense Minister's (DM) proclamation that just shy of 500 Israelis (Jews, Arabs) would die in the retaliatory attack is very comforting -- so long as someone you know (or yourself) is not one of the 499.  One wonders how DM Barak figured this number out.  Did he count the number of missiles fired from Gaza that he views as only a nuisance, no worse than the bolts of lightning we remember from our youth -- and equate the two?

This is a very serious matter and I would hope that our two leaders really appreciate that any Israeli attack will put our feet in the frying pan (or worse) and we better be ready for any contingency -- even a possible late (or never) resupply of arms from our "friend," the United States.  Just remember, there are no friends in international relations, just common interests. These interests can change like the wind.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Weather It Is (A Slippery, Wet Slope)


We're fortunate that there's no rain predicted anytime soon, but first...

I clearly remember when the European Commission (EC) decided to treat the areas outside of the Green-Line as non-Israel for custom-duty purposes.  Mr. Olmert, Prime minister at that time, agreed rather meekly to acquiesce in this decision. Now, the J. Post is reporting that even some areas inside the old Green-Line will now be treated like those areas without.  One can imagine that the Palestinian representatives will now move to have any areas beyond the 1947 UN partition line relabed "non-Israeli" as well.

This is a major problem as we head into the winter season. Apparently, an addendum added at the last moment to EC custom duties updates stipulates the following: "Any rain-producing weather system that originates over EC territory and then moves southeastward towards Israeli will be subject to the Israel-EC trade agreement.  This means that any rain that falls east of the 1949 armistice line will be subject to tax -- per millimeter of rainfall.  Any failure to remit payment within one week of due such passage will result in the suspension of further deliveries of rain both the 'occupied' territories and Israel proper."

The EC is really playing hardball.

I think, though, that we need to view this as a tennis match, where the Palestinians are the judges.  We've got return serve, break serve, and basically make the Palestinians lose interest in the game.

I'd like to suggest the following steps to fight this: i) Israel should identify areas within the EC that were at one point under dispute and set-them outside the EU Israel trade agreement.  ii) We should annex area C, which will (to say the least) put any Palestinian businesses under the EU-Israel (non) agreement.  ii) We unilaterally amend the recent Israel-Palestinian agreement such that Palestinian businesses exporting to Europe will now have to pay a commensurate customs tax as Israeli businesses in the West Bank pay now.

While it is true that the West Bank Palestinians have largely abandoned their terrorist war, their negative diplomacy is simply a war by other means and we need to respond.  If we don't act now, even our beautiful summer days -- which still have a couple of weeks to go -- will be subject to an EC duty tax!

Barry Lynn

Monday, August 13, 2012

Weather It Is (He said, She Said)

Good Morning:

There are those who say that July was really hot -- hence, the winter will be warm and dry.  However, there are those who say that The Ninth Of Av (a fast day for redemption) was windy and cool, and hence the winter will be cool and wet.  On the other hand, the "Climate-Forecast-Systems" model predicts that the winter is going to be wet and on the cool side!

Of course, we are all wondering if our Prime Minister and Defense Minister will order our air-force to attack the Iranian nuclear sites.  You see, we have a choice: we can try to stop the Iranian nuclear menace ourselves or rely on the United States.  However, I seem to remember the current administration (Obama) repudiating the letter the previous president (George Bush) sent previous Prime Minister Sharon concerning Israel towns and villages in the West Bank.  Yet, even under the best of circumstances it seems strange for a country to put its actual existence in the hands of others.

So, where does that leave us?  It leaves us with a hot day today, and then about two weeks of nice weather.  In fact, the temperatures will soon trend down a bit, and one might even have the feeling that fall is approaching. Of course, this past Shabbat was the absolute best weather (at least in Gush Etzion): the temperatures were perfect in the early morning, the air smelled fresh all day, and it never got too hot.

The only thing I can predict with certainty, by the way, is that the Gazans will send more missiles and our government will continue to treat each attack like an inconvenience, but nothing more.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Weather It Is (Up and Down?)

Good morning:

This summer's summertime weather continues summerly along.  However, it's really not too "bad," as the temperature are hot, but not too hot.  In fact, the nights have turned quite pleasant again, at least in the mountainous areas like in Jerusalem.  And there doesn't seem to be any real change in sight.

The reason for our fairly stable is weather is low pressure situated to our east, with high pressure situated over the northern part of the African continent. Between them, we have a fairly steady flow of air from our east (so it's hot), which mixes with a more cool westerly flow of air from the sea (so it's not too hot).

Of course, some of us might be feeling hot around the collar, as the government announces one tax increase after another.  I guess our ministers don't feel that our overdrafts our high enough, so now we'll be able to use our overdraft (which the banks really encourage) to pay higher taxes.  On the other hand, didn't quite a large number of Israeli citizens spend the previous summer campaigning for government sponsored (i.e, "free) education for kindergarten, etc?  One can't blame the government for giving with one hand, while taking with the other (which then passes behind the back to the giving hand).  The alternative would just give the banks a reason to charge higher interest rates.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Weather It Is (More Summer Weather)

Good morning:

It makes sense that the continuation of summer would bring more summer weather, especially in Israel where the only constants seem to be more hot weather and an occasional (or not so occasional) missile launched from Gaza.

Of course, the weather could turn extremely hot, which would make for more summer weather than we desire.  However, looking ahead shows a fairly constant weather pattern with the hottest temperatures situated well to our east.  We'll continue to have light to moderate westerly winds, which will bring warm and humid temperatures along the coast and very-warm and dry temperatures further inland. Hot weather will be the rule in the Jordan Valley and south to Eilat.

Having returned from a trip abroad, I can tell you that the good news is that missile attacks take longer to occur than a lightning "attack."  We hardly ever have any lightning here in Israel during the summer -- so I guess there are those who like to make their own interesting weather for us to take care from.  Or, is it just our government that treats these attacks like an attack of nature?

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Weather It Is (H-Cow Batman: those were flying "Kipot.")

Summer just doesn't want to come.  After a brief warm-up today, winds gusted strongly out of the west, ushering in much cooler air.  In an amazing feat of flying, kippot (Yarmulkes) became air born in Neve Daniel and landed on the heads of the unsuspecting in Efrat, just to the east (but across a rather large valley).  Of course, these heads were already empty, as Kippot were seen flying eastward (hopefully) from Efrat to Tekoa on strong winds.

The winds were so strong that those who were fortunate to have covered pools were soon to find out that their pools were uncovered.  This is much worse than having a kippa fly off and reveal a bald head, instead of a Toupe.

In any case, the winds should subside a bit, but looking ahead another storm should approach on Friday and then winds will pick up again in its wake.

In summary, the weather will not be too cool or too warm, and unless there is a concerted effort by towns located through Israel to return all the Kippot to their rightful owners, Kippot stores are going to be doing a brisk and very good business for the next week or two.  By the way, I lost my favorite Kippa right before our winter's only real snow.  If you've seen that, please return -- thank you.

I also have an hub cap that someone lost, and I saw another one on David Ha Melech Street near the bench up on the way to the Efrat Matnas.  These would make good Kippot, except they're a bit large.

Barry Lynn

Friday, April 27, 2012

Weather It Is (A Tropical Shot)

Good Afternoon:

It's been a while since I last wrote a weather blog. Yet, the weather was simply nice, and then it
was nice another day, and then another day.  In fact, there was only one hot day all month and I don't remember any hot days in March.  So, the weather has been better than nice: superb.  Independence day was actually the best weather I ever remember: sunny and just a bit mild.

Yet, it looks like humidity will be on the increase as a tropical system approaches from the Southwest. This system will approach on Sunday and then the southwest flow of moisture (from the tropical system) will stick around for a few days.  So, it might feel a bit humid, even though temperatures are not suppose to be particularly warm.  There may even be some rain, and one should keep an eye on the forecast for possible flooding rains.

Looking further ahead again shows that we're heading into a "no-weather" pattern.  However, this doesn't mean that the daytime temperatures won't be warmer than the nighttime temperatures or that the wind will cease to blow.  It just means that we're not expecting any rain or any high heat. So enjoy.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Weather It Is (Spring has Arrived and so have Missiles)

Good afternoon:

It's quite warm outside and it is going to stay warm for a few days.

Low pressure dipping down over Central Europe is drawing warm air from the continent of Africa.  The warm flow of air will continue into early next week, when the low pressure approaches -- weakens -- and then slides into our area.

As the area of low pressure peters-out, the chance of rain will diminish, but there is the chance of rain nevertheless. Hopefully, it won't be a muddy rain like our last one.

Of course, we should be happy that only mud falls from the sky.  Late last night one or two missiles fell on Eilat.  Of course, there's nothing we can do but put up the umbrella, as we left the Sinai to the Egyptians many years ago.   And, as our Defense Minister says: "Terrorism -- like the weather -- isn't going away anytime soon."  I certainly feel a lot safer, knowing this.

The mayor of Eilat says that life will go on as normal, and he encourages visitors (including ourselves).  Fortunately, on this side of town we only worry about large hail storms in the form of rocks. But, even the famous NY Times columnist Thomas Friedman thinks of the throwing of large hail stones as a form of "non-violent" protest.  So, we too have nothing to worry about either, which is too bad since the weather really gives us no cause for concern!

Barry Lynn

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Weather It Is (Winter's Last Gasp)

It's certainly been nice and today (Shabbat) was the nicest day in quite a while -- although a bit of dust in the air made the day seem not quite as nice as it might have been.

On the other hand, things are never quite exactly how we want them, and it's usually the wanting that causes the discontent, if not problems.

Well with that said, I think I'll mention that the weather is suppose to muddle along for another day and then turn colder.  If everything fell into place, there might even be some snow (flakes) mixed in with the rain that should fall during the mid-week period. Right now, there is still a lot uncertainty in the forecast rain amounts, with greater amounts being associated with colder, more "winter-like" weather.  So, it will either be rainy, or maybe really rainy with winter cold.

Until then, enjoy another nice day, and if you see any UN folks around, bring them over to our local Rami-Levy so they can shop with our local Arab neighbors.

Barry Lynn

Monday, March 19, 2012

Weather It Is (Up and Down)

It's been brought to my attention that there will be an influx of dust along with our easterly winds.  This certainly makes for greater difficulty for people with Asthma, etc.

Well, the weather certainly is nice, although a bit nippy. In fact, this morning felt colder than yesterday's real cold -- as there was a stiff wind from the north.

Looking ahead, one sees pretty much nothing to write about all week, except for a bit of an up, and then a bit of a down in the temperatures, before another up (of no real consequence).  Looking a bit farther out, there may be some rain early next week, but at the moment the "impending" foul weather doesn't look too foul.

Speaking of looking ahead, I've decided that one really should look where one is going, lest one end up somewhere unexpected.  Putting this idea into practice, though, is bit too farsighted for me.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Weather It Is (Going for a run?)

Good Afternoon:

Our Prime Minister recognizes that "There is no such thing as hermetic protection against rockets."  Of course, this depends on how many are being fired at once.  Over on this side of the country, there are no rockets being fired -- because the army rooted out the Palestinian war making ability when it entered Palestinian towns again back on 2002/03.  The opposite is the case on the Western side of the country, where the army left Gaza in 2006, but not before uprooting about 10,000 people from their homes.

The problem is that the missile shield -- although an amazing technical achievement -- still leaks like a leaky umbrella on a rainy and windy day.  Or, if you don't want to get wet, don't go out in the rain. Too bad the government treats the missile threat like the weather forecast -- you do your "best," and hope the worst doesn't happen. The iron dome -- like a good umbrella -- should be the last resort against missiles -- an insurance policy rather than the raincoat itself.

Speaking of rain, did you ever try to run a marathon with an Umbrella?  Good for the country, but not so good for the marathoners, the weather will not cooperate tomorrow.  In fact, the weather is going to start out rainy and just get rainier as the day progresses, with strong winds and temperatures only around 8 C.

Then, as the afternoon progresses, it's going to get a lot colder.  I can't say that one should take out the skis again, but certainly there should be sleet and rain together, and possibly light snow in the evening and night, followed by blustery and chilly weather on Shabbat.

After this storm passes, there will be very good missile launching weather for about a week, before the next winter storm threatens.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Weather It Is (Where did Spring go?)

It's Wednesday afternoon and it doesn't feel like Spring anymore.  What happened?  Spring's old nemesis, Winter, is making a comeback.  You might call it a bit of luck, since it's not necessarily cold and stormy elsewhere.

Of course, we were quite "lucky" during the last "round" of fighting.  No-one on our side was killed, and this was a distinct possibility since the Iron-Dome system shot down about 75% of all the missiles launched from Gaza.  Fortunately, we also have a defense minister, Ehud Barak, who's an optimist, and thinks that relative "calm" is really just fine, so long as it's not me who gets hit on the head by the next one.

Did I say cold, well: I meant it.  The cold is courtesy of a trough digging southward,  It really is going to get cold, but the atmosphere doesn't seem (just yet) to be as cold as it could be, meaning that this weather system is weighted towards the bottom, with most of the cold air concentrated closer to the surface.  It would actually be nice to see some snow from this system, late Friday afternoon and night, but it's too early to really say we should look out for it.

Following this system, the weather will be in a relative calm, but not the kind of relative calm that makes one run for cover at the sound of a siren.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Weather It Is (It was a beautiful day)

Today (Purim) was a beautiful day, but it wasn't a hot day.  It was quite pleasant, for sure, but it wasn't hot.  Now, it might have felt hot because it was the warmest day in quite a while, but it wasn't.

That said, we should probably note that early next week will be hot, as southerly winds ahead of low pressure bring a taste of early summer.  However, after the passage of the low pressure area, which
may be accompanied by a period of rain, temperatures should trend downward. 

How far downward? At this time, it's not very clear just how cold it will get.  However, there are a few ensemble members that want to bring back winter to our area. However, they are not the majority, so we'll just make mention of this interesting fact, but not make a big deal about it.

Purim Samaech,

Barry Lynn

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Weather It Is (Life and fall of a snowflake)

The snow that fell Friday morning was a beautiful snow: the flakes were large and fluffy.
In Gush Etzion, the temperature fell to freezing or below, and the snow accumulated as white powder
on the streets, sidewalks, lawns and gardens.  Temperatures at 500 mb were forecast to be near or below -25 C, at 700 mb below -11 C (and as low as -13 C), and at 850 mb at -2 C or below. These conditions are apparently good conditions for growing snow crystals, rather than small hail stones (which we call "sleet," but sleet is really rain drops that freeze on the way down). 

In strong wintertime thunderstorms, we often get snow pellets and sleet, and these pellets are not fluffy like the snow we had (made of dendrites).  Rather these type of snow pellets grow in strong updrafts and descend in strong downdrafts, and are often a kernal of snow frozen into a rather stiff form of ice.   This is most uncomfortable, at least for one who happens to be a "snow-flake."

In contrast, our Friday snow formed in weakly ascending, moist air that had time to form large snowflakes from dendrites. 

Predicting snow amounts in such a situation is tricky.  I have to mention, though, that no self-respecting snowflake wants to end its life as a raindrop as it falls to ground, which is what happened to many such snowflakes during our last storm, where greater than 150 mm of rain fell. The problem is that the larger the flakes become, the harder it is for them to stay aloft. On the other hand, the larger the flakes the more likely they are to survive the plunge to earth below.  So, eventually, these large flakes do decide to take a chance, in the hopes that they will join their fellow comrade flakes on the ground.

You have to understand, though, that while the ice-type snow can fall very fast and coat the ground with ice particles even when the temperature is above freezing. the fluffy like snow falls slowly (due to its low density and large size) and  usually melts before it reaches the ground -- unless the surface temperatures are at or below freezing.  Sometimes, though, if enough snow melts, the energy required to melt the snow can lead to cooling the ground and near-surface air enough that snow can accumulate.  This is when predicting snow amounts becomes very tricky.

In Gush Etzion, it was cold enough that the snow accumulated without melting.  In Jerusalem, it didn't, and instead had to freeze the ground first and then due to air temperatures just above freezing the snow became slush in many places.  One could say with confidence that there would be more snow in Gush Etzion than in Jerusalem, but it was difficult to say how little in Jerusalem.

Looking ahead in our weather: for a moment it looked like cold air might return at Purim time, but now the majority of ensemble members show that warmer weather is on the way, at least until early next week. So, enjoy the nice Purim weather and dry out a bit too.

Barry Lynn

Friday, March 2, 2012

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Update #8)

Hi;

The previous post was written a few hours before, but didn't get posted -- sorry.

The temperatures have warmed up a bit.  Currently, only light precipitation is indicated, and because the ground has warmed up a bit, it should
help with the roads. 

Later this afternoon the air will be cooling off a bit, but only light precipitation is forecast.  We'll see how the next update comes in.

The temperatures will warm up a bit tomorrow and a period of rain is forecast for Shabbat.

A storm will approach on Purim day, but may remain far enough north of us to give us only a good dose of rain.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Update #7)

The latest GFS forecast continues to show cold weather, with a reinforcing shot of cold air
later today.

Periods of snow will continue this morning (mostly in the center), and for this reason travel is not recommended.

However, there should be a short break in the weather (at least based on last night's data), and then
even colder air will come in aloft later in the afternoon.  Snow should fall again and there should be
off an on precipitation until Shabbat morning.  Shabbat will remain cold.

The IMS is predicting 10 cm of snow in Jerusalem.  That would be great, but I am not sure if it will
be cold enough to make it accumulate so much.  We'll know more about this with the next update in
a few hours.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Weather It Is (Where will it snow?)

We're looking at the sounding data for Jerusalem, and we see that early tomorrow morning the temperatures at 900 mb will drop just below freezing. However, the surface temperatures are still suppose to be above freezing.  This implies that any snow that any (moderate) snow that falls will create at most a slushy accumulation.  After a mid-day warm-up, the potential for snow returns in the evening.  However, we should mention that there is still some uncertainty in tomorrow morning's forecast. In fact, the GFS ensemble has a range of almost four degrees, with most clustered around -27.5 C at 500 mb.  A little "Mazol" might bring the white stuff to Jerusalem.

In contrast, in Gush Etzion, the forecast temperatures are suppose to be at and below breezing during a period of first moderate and then heavy snow.  This should lead to a quick accumulation of snow on the ground and roads.  There to there should be a bit of a warm-up towards mid-day, but colder air again comes in aloft towards late afternoon.  This coupled with additional cooling aloft will raise the chances of snow again.

A warming trend begins on Sunday.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Update #6)

Heavy precipitation continues to fall, and where it is snowing, it's snowing, and where it's raining, it's raining. The temperatures haven't really changed much since yesterday evening.

However, from around mid-night onwards, the temperatures should start to creep and then fall downwards, and the mixture of snow and rain should change to all snow and accumulate at least several centimeters by morning in Central Israel.  The coldest air is forecast for Friday evening, so we would expect additional accumulation on Friday.  Jerusalem should also receive at least a light accumulation of snow towards morning.

You can see the snow-map under Maps: "Today's Snow Forecast."

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Weather It Is Winter Storm Update #5)

Snow has fallen in Gush Etzion (and northern Israel).  In areas such as Efrat, it has accumulated on cars, sidewalks, and streets, but temperatures are just above freezing so that the snow accumulation is quite slushy. Elsewhere, I'd expect to hear (from you) that snow did accumulate.

After a brief lull later tonight, the mixed rain and snow should return in the morning and then transition to all snow sometime in the afternoon.  The snow should accumulate first as a slush, but at night into Friday there should be a heavy accumulation of snow (that is, something white and soft, that you can throw).  There's still some uncertainty in the forecast of temperatures, so optimistically there will be a lot of snow, less optimistically there will be accumulating snow.

After the snow finishes late Friday or Saturday morning there may be a transition to rain and warmer temperatures.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Correcton: Winter Storm Update #4)

Our winter storm has arrived and is potentially a very dangerous storm.  Moreover, the cold air should arrive in the central part of the country between 2 and 5 P.M, making for a slippery and icy ride home as heavy rain transitions to snow and ice. 

Temperatures will be warm to start, and then cool off rapidly -- so it is hard to judge how much of an accumulation will occur with the rain to ice-to-snow, but because the precipitation should come down fast an accumulation is likely.

Tonight, the cold air at upper levels will moderate towards morning and the precipitation should transition to mixed snow and rain, and then rain either late tonight or tomorrow (Thursday).

However, the ensemble forecast is predicting that the strongest winter blast will occur late Thursday into Shabbat.  Again, the ensemble is predicting a drop in temperatures to the coldest values we've seen in years.  The cold weather will be accompanied by snow (the real white stuff), if this forecast holds up. 

Updates should follow, God willing

(I believe that there is an error in the display of the forecasts (at least late this night).  See the forecasts for Jerusalem and Efrat below, which indicate heavy wet snow in the mid-to-late afternoon.

Barry Lynn

Efrat

 

Jerusalem
Wed
Feb 29 2012 - 12:00:00
Sprinkles
9.7 °C
5.16 49. % Strong SW
0.38
0.62
9.87
Wed
Feb 29 2012 - 15:00:00
Heavy Wet-Snow-Rain
4.1 °C
-2.16 87. % Strong NW
9.29
9.91
19.16
Wed
Feb 29 2012 - 18:00:00
Light Wet-Snow-Rain
3.8 °C
-1.89 85. % Strong W
1.44
11.35
20.6
Wed
Feb 29 2012 - 21:00:00
Light Wet-Snow-Rain
3.3 °C
-3.04 90. % Strong W
2.06
13.41
22.66
Thu
Mar 01 2012 - 00:00:00
Light Rain
2.9 °C
-4.20 87. % Gale W
1.43
14.84
24.09
Thu
Mar 01 2012 - 03:00:00
Moderate Wet-Snow-Rain
3.0 °C
-4.20 46. % Gale SW
3.57
18.41
27.66
Thu
Mar 01 2012 - 06:00:00
Moderate Rain
3.1 °C
-3.80 50. % Strong SW
3.16
21.57
30.82