Friday, March 22, 2013

Weather It Is (The Little Storm That Couldn't; A Global Warming World)

The drought continues to deepen -- it really hasn't rained a substantial amount in 6 weeks. 

When we look at the GFS 10 day forecast or the GFS ensemble forecast, we see the possibility of rain.  However, there are always several members or more of this ensemble that indicate that the storm will either weaken or pass by to our north, and by the time the storm should have arrived, all the ensemble members agree that the storm will -- for the most part -- miss us again.

In fact,  this Friday evening and Shabbat one of these storms will impact our area, but the impact will be just a glancing blow.  One interesting fact is that there is still plenty of cold air in Europe, and the storm track is still fairly active. It looks, though, like it has retreated a bit to the north, and the retreat to the north has been (for our sake), about a month too early in the winter season. 

One predicted consequence of global warming is that storms will be less frequent, come later in the season, and depart earlier.  There is also an indication that storms -- when they do occur -- will be more ferocious -- heavier rain and wind.  This winter is -- quite possibly -- a glimpse into a world impacted by global warming.

As for Pesach, the active Jet stream will continue, but there will also be at least a few days of warmer weather before the next possible storm late next week.

Shabbat Shalom; have a good Pessach,

Barry Lynn

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Weather It Is (Was that too hot or too cold?)

Spring has sprung, or has it? 

We've had the warmest weather of the late winter and Friday's weather will feel downright hot.  Yet, one might be forgiven for feeling like we're headed for a roller coaster ride!

By Shabbat, it just won't feel like a Kansas summer day anymore, but more like the Middle East (particularly Israel), where our emotions can go up and down depending on the latest happenings (but, preferably up!).

We've been watching a developing winter storm for the past few days.  It is swinging through central Europe and it is headed our way.  The problem, so to speak, is that hard on its heels a faster moving pocket of energy that (in many of our ensemble forecasts) rips this late winter storm to shreds, at least in the middle atmosphere, causing our storm to lose its trough-like sharpness before blasting us with a winter chill.

There still are three ensemble members holding our for a more intense winter storm, and hence, there remains the possibility of light to moderate rain mixing with snow early next week. In any case, all the ensemble indicate that it's going to feel chilly, and our summer like weather will only be a memory, even as the week progresses into next.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Weather It Is (Almost Perfect)

Good Afternoon:

The weather has been a bit cool, but overall it's been pretty sunny and it's no longer very windy.
The next few days will be neither here nor there, and there is a chance of light rain early next week. 

We're basically along the southern edge of a developing large trough of winter weather over Europe.  This winter trough should slowly, but inexorably push itself southward, as well as amplify.

As the trough amplifies, the winds will pick up out of the south next week and we are likely to see the hottest weather of the new year by mid-week.

But then, in a cruel twist of fate, the trough may just come crashing through, sweeping away the warm/hot weather (locusts, frogs, etc), bringing with it our first real rain in a month's time. In fact, this trough of cold weather may be just so cold, that it freezes those aspiring rain drops and turns them into snowflakes.  At the moment, this (snowy) scenario is about a 20% chance, but the overall pattern looks potentially wintery.  So, don't put away those winter clothes just yet!

Barry Lynn