Good Evening:
Summer or winter -- you decide. Seems like the mornings are getting colder as we move each day towards the official start of winter. In fact, our next light rain should be on the way to start next week. So, the weather will continue to feel like it should -- fall moving into winter.
Yet, after our early, rainy start to next week, temperatures should rise by five or six degrees as winds switch from northwest to easterly. Just when you want to lock the door on the summer wardrobe, someone will change the lock, and that will be a good thing. After all, who wants to be dressed too warmly when the weather isn't cooperating?
Moreover, the latest seasonal forecast from the ECMWF (https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/) shows a warmer than normal November, but heavier than normal rain amounts. Yet, that should be followed by a drier December and January, with temperatures near or above normal. What happened to our rainy winter?
Of course, this is all talk, and who really knows what the weather will bring. In fact, you know when you're in trouble when someone tells the weatherman to look out the window. That happened to me today.
Of course, it's hard enough to keep one's eyes open when the clocks change, especially for morning people who find themselves again waking up at 4 in the morning, instead of an early, with the birds 5 A.M. Just to make things worse, my wife pointed out that our neighbor is even more tired than normal because he's been getting up really early to pray, and followed this by a comment suggesting that it looks like there's even less hair on my head than just last month. I may have reached the moment in life when a haircut makes you look life you've got more hair than before.
As you know, people tend to minimize their own faults, while amplifying the faults of others. While that seems obvious, it tends to make for unrealistic expectations between couples. One half of a couple can think that they can do better, if they just find someone who just has so and so characteristics, forgetting that they are expecting all the good qualities of their partner to magically pass to the other (new) person.
This led me to ask the existential question: if you could trade up for a new wife or a new car, what should you do? This question didn't come out of the blue, but was part of a very deep and serious discussion about marriage, sometime difficulties in married life, and the rising divorce rate.
While it is true that not all people are good people, and not all pairings are good pairings, the answer is: "trade up for a new car." You know what you're getting and the two of you can enjoy a country ride together. In fact, doing things together, is sometimes the best answer. You might just find out how much you enjoy your spouse's company.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Friday, October 25, 2019
Weather It Is (Tropical Storm Warning)
Good Shabbat Eve (almost):
A Medicane is upon us. It should reach tropical storm winds.
Tropical storm warning for the southern coast as far north (possibly) as Ashdod, late Shabbat afternoon evening.
Heavy rain moving into the southern coastal areas tomorrow afternoon, and spreading north towards Tel-Aviv and south towards the northern Negev.
Heavy, flooding rains likely, especially in the southern coastal areas (including Ashdod and southern Tel-Aviv), Jerusalem, and the northern Negev to the Dead Sea.
Storm passes Saturday night.
Forecasts based on our WRF ensemble, from Weather It Is, LTD.
Shabbat Shalom,
A Medicane is upon us. It should reach tropical storm winds.
Tropical storm warning for the southern coast as far north (possibly) as Ashdod, late Shabbat afternoon evening.
Heavy rain moving into the southern coastal areas tomorrow afternoon, and spreading north towards Tel-Aviv and south towards the northern Negev.
Heavy, flooding rains likely, especially in the southern coastal areas (including Ashdod and southern Tel-Aviv), Jerusalem, and the northern Negev to the Dead Sea.
Storm passes Saturday night.
Forecasts based on our WRF ensemble, from Weather It Is, LTD.
Shabbat Shalom,
Weather It Is (Medicane)
Good Afternoon:
A storm currently depicted here:https://en.sat24.com/en/is/visual has developed a circulation typical of tropical storms that impact areas such as the eastern seaboard of the US. This type of storm is termed a Medicane.
You can read about the history of Medicanes here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/24/rare-hurricane-like-medicane-strike-egypt-israel/
Our forecast shows the storm moving eastward and then southeastward into the Sinai and southern Israel, with the strongest winds and heaviest rains near the intersection of Gaza, Egypt, and Israel.
We're hoping to finish an ensemble forecast of this storm to see what is the probability that the storm might turn further north than currently forecast.
Heavy, flooding rains should be expected from south-central Israel to Eilat, with showers and thunderstorms into central Israel.
Barry Lynn
A storm currently depicted here:https://en.sat24.com/en/is/visual has developed a circulation typical of tropical storms that impact areas such as the eastern seaboard of the US. This type of storm is termed a Medicane.
You can read about the history of Medicanes here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/24/rare-hurricane-like-medicane-strike-egypt-israel/
Our forecast shows the storm moving eastward and then southeastward into the Sinai and southern Israel, with the strongest winds and heaviest rains near the intersection of Gaza, Egypt, and Israel.
We're hoping to finish an ensemble forecast of this storm to see what is the probability that the storm might turn further north than currently forecast.
Heavy, flooding rains should be expected from south-central Israel to Eilat, with showers and thunderstorms into central Israel.
Barry Lynn
Monday, October 21, 2019
Weather It Is (Fall Storms)
Good Evening:
The holidays are now past, and we're all looking forward to two plus months of "normalcy." What does that mean for us weather-wise?
It means that October will both feel and look like fall: the temperatures will head quite a bit downwards starting mid-week, and they could be preceded by thunderstorms. Moreover, as the cold weather filters in, there should be both rain showers and even periods of rain. The greatest likelihood of rain will occur from the center of the country to the north, but thunderstorms over the southern areas should not be ruled out, especially ahead of the cold air.
The chilly weather should last into early next week. At that time, there will likely be a short warming trend before colder air and another bout of rain brings in the new month.
The good news is that with the cooler weather, it will be okay to leave your butter on the counter -- it won't get too soft (for those who refuse to turn on the heat until December). "Butter," you say? "What's that?" That is what you put on your bread, if you could actually buy it in the store. Not mentioned in this article (https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-israels-butter-shortage-seen-continuing-1001281402) is that Tnuva was sold to a Chinese company and from what I read the butter we used to buy from Tnuva is now buttering the bread (or Wontons) in China. My guess, though, is that most folks don't know that it's actually pretty easy to make butter. In fact, I made my own. One should probably take note that when the butter separates from the what become buttermilk, the buttermilk will spray all over the place unless you cover the mixer or turn it off at just the right moment. https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/42264/homemade-butter/. As to why we don't have butter to buy?...?
The other day a tragedy happened. A family enjoying an outing at the beach was struck by lightning. As you can see on the lightning tracking system of Weather It is (ITLN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SZnUn0m9xM)), the cloud to ground and intracloud lightning (called Total Lightning) can be tracked as it approaches the beach. A quick look at the time suggests that there was about an hour's time before the lightning struck the beach where a warning could have been issued to seek safety. So, why wasn't a warning issued? Why isn't there any butter?
It looks like the Prime Minister will turn over the mandate to form the next government. The Prime Minister made a pact with more right wing and religious parties to stick together, or to sink or swim together. Why is our Prime Minister so afraid to form a government with the other "centrist" party, Blue and White? Why isn't there any butter?
Things are clearer at home, or at least they were for a few days. My wife, and other wives, went on strike before the last holiday. There were few parting words, except perhaps: "you do the cooking." Of course, I was up to the task, since I love to be in the kitchen. The amazing thing was that the mess I usually make when my wife is in the kitchen was nowhere to be found. She's still looking for it.
Perhaps, then, it is only appropriate that today was not only the holiday when I did the cooking, but when I accepted with solemn responsibility the task of making it rain this coming winter. Usually, this task is reserved for G-D to decide -- for instance, how much and when rain will fall in the Land of Israel (https://www.yeshiva.co/midrash/6316). However, a few weeks ago I decided to ask for and just received confirmation that I would be able to make these big decisions myself. Strangely, it happened the same day I made my first batch of butter. Where's the butter? It's on my toast.
Barry Lynn
The holidays are now past, and we're all looking forward to two plus months of "normalcy." What does that mean for us weather-wise?
It means that October will both feel and look like fall: the temperatures will head quite a bit downwards starting mid-week, and they could be preceded by thunderstorms. Moreover, as the cold weather filters in, there should be both rain showers and even periods of rain. The greatest likelihood of rain will occur from the center of the country to the north, but thunderstorms over the southern areas should not be ruled out, especially ahead of the cold air.
The chilly weather should last into early next week. At that time, there will likely be a short warming trend before colder air and another bout of rain brings in the new month.
The good news is that with the cooler weather, it will be okay to leave your butter on the counter -- it won't get too soft (for those who refuse to turn on the heat until December). "Butter," you say? "What's that?" That is what you put on your bread, if you could actually buy it in the store. Not mentioned in this article (https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-israels-butter-shortage-seen-continuing-1001281402) is that Tnuva was sold to a Chinese company and from what I read the butter we used to buy from Tnuva is now buttering the bread (or Wontons) in China. My guess, though, is that most folks don't know that it's actually pretty easy to make butter. In fact, I made my own. One should probably take note that when the butter separates from the what become buttermilk, the buttermilk will spray all over the place unless you cover the mixer or turn it off at just the right moment. https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/42264/homemade-butter/. As to why we don't have butter to buy?...?
The other day a tragedy happened. A family enjoying an outing at the beach was struck by lightning. As you can see on the lightning tracking system of Weather It is (ITLN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SZnUn0m9xM)), the cloud to ground and intracloud lightning (called Total Lightning) can be tracked as it approaches the beach. A quick look at the time suggests that there was about an hour's time before the lightning struck the beach where a warning could have been issued to seek safety. So, why wasn't a warning issued? Why isn't there any butter?
It looks like the Prime Minister will turn over the mandate to form the next government. The Prime Minister made a pact with more right wing and religious parties to stick together, or to sink or swim together. Why is our Prime Minister so afraid to form a government with the other "centrist" party, Blue and White? Why isn't there any butter?
Things are clearer at home, or at least they were for a few days. My wife, and other wives, went on strike before the last holiday. There were few parting words, except perhaps: "you do the cooking." Of course, I was up to the task, since I love to be in the kitchen. The amazing thing was that the mess I usually make when my wife is in the kitchen was nowhere to be found. She's still looking for it.
Perhaps, then, it is only appropriate that today was not only the holiday when I did the cooking, but when I accepted with solemn responsibility the task of making it rain this coming winter. Usually, this task is reserved for G-D to decide -- for instance, how much and when rain will fall in the Land of Israel (https://www.yeshiva.co/midrash/6316). However, a few weeks ago I decided to ask for and just received confirmation that I would be able to make these big decisions myself. Strangely, it happened the same day I made my first batch of butter. Where's the butter? It's on my toast.
Barry Lynn
Friday, October 11, 2019
Weather It Is (Seems Too Hot)
Good Afternoon:
It seems too hot out there -- and if you think so, you're probably right. Temperatures have been close to 30 degrees under southerly breezes, with not too humid, but slightly too humid air.
Shabbat will see a small decrease in temperatures but Sunday through into late Wednesday should see uncomfortably warm if not hot temperatures. The hot temperatures should arrive with some mid-level and upper-level moisture, which means we could see a repeat of the thundershowers that affected the southern and central areas last Shabbat.
Yet, you might want to shake the dust off those winter clothes soon because the outlook beyond Wednesday is for the arrival of much cooler temperatures and much more humid air as winds switch to the west and northwest. The cooler air should build in during Sukkot, but it looks like the coldest air and a more general rain should hold off until early the following week, perhaps to just after the end of the holiday.
Enjoy the summer like weather because fall, if not winter looks poised to bless us with rain.
Hag Samaech!
Barry Lynn
It seems too hot out there -- and if you think so, you're probably right. Temperatures have been close to 30 degrees under southerly breezes, with not too humid, but slightly too humid air.
Shabbat will see a small decrease in temperatures but Sunday through into late Wednesday should see uncomfortably warm if not hot temperatures. The hot temperatures should arrive with some mid-level and upper-level moisture, which means we could see a repeat of the thundershowers that affected the southern and central areas last Shabbat.
Yet, you might want to shake the dust off those winter clothes soon because the outlook beyond Wednesday is for the arrival of much cooler temperatures and much more humid air as winds switch to the west and northwest. The cooler air should build in during Sukkot, but it looks like the coldest air and a more general rain should hold off until early the following week, perhaps to just after the end of the holiday.
Enjoy the summer like weather because fall, if not winter looks poised to bless us with rain.
Hag Samaech!
Barry Lynn
Thursday, October 3, 2019
Weather It Is (Moving Along)
Good Afternoon:
We're moving along into fall, and the weather is changing accordingly. The seasonal forecast from the "ECMWF" (seasonal forecasting system: https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/) continues to show above normal temperatures through November, but increasingly above normal rain amounts as we move from October to November, and then November to December. December's temperatures should be average, so perhaps we'll see a late December snow. That's exciting news, but you can also note that January is supposed to be drier than normal.
We'll have to wait and see if these forecasts are going to be accurate; I hope we don't have to wait similarly as long to see what Knesset parties will make up our new government.
One thing we do know is that the days just prior to Yom Kippur are going to be quite a bit cooler than these past few days, but Yom Kippur itself could be a tad too warm. Moreover, there may even be warmer days that follow. Still, temperatures in the upper atmosphere are forecast to fall quite steadily, and we'll need these temperatures to be relatively low before we can get any substantial fall rains.
Even though the future is uncertain, the past seems less so. For instance, the weather days of Rosh HaShanah were really quite nice. I saw plenty of people outdoors, and most seems quite happy to be heading home around lunch time after the morning Shofar blowing. Of course, we all know that the day long (if not longer) prayers of Yom Kippur will soon be upon us. I have it on good authority that there are some synagogues that pray so slowly they don't even finish by nightfall, and that there are a few that continue all the way to Passover. That's what's called dedication, especially since the fast doesn't end until the shofar blowing at the end of services.
It's strange to see people with such dedication, but a stranger thing happened to me. I had a broken dryer fixed about the same time that my laundry room fan broke. The heating element was broken and the fan didn't spin fast enough to remove the room humidity (the latter independently confirmed). Of course, a day or so later I called the repair-person to let him know that the element was broken again, and of course he came and pointed out that it was working fine. Strangely enough the fan also works fine again.
There are three possibilities that can explain these strange happenings. The first is that both the dryer and fan fixed themselves. The second is that I was mistaken about the dryer -- but this doesn't explain the broken fan that now works even though no one came to fix it. The third is that our dryer was temporarily replaced with a broken dryer from another universe, and some poor soul now has both a broken dryer and a broken laundry room fan.
I think that the third option is the most likely, but I'd rather spend my next few months forecasting weather (I can hypothesize, pontificate, and expound, and even be wrong -- yet still have a shred of credibility), then speculate about dryers that fix themselves.
Have a nice holiday.
Barry Lynn
We're moving along into fall, and the weather is changing accordingly. The seasonal forecast from the "ECMWF" (seasonal forecasting system: https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/) continues to show above normal temperatures through November, but increasingly above normal rain amounts as we move from October to November, and then November to December. December's temperatures should be average, so perhaps we'll see a late December snow. That's exciting news, but you can also note that January is supposed to be drier than normal.
We'll have to wait and see if these forecasts are going to be accurate; I hope we don't have to wait similarly as long to see what Knesset parties will make up our new government.
One thing we do know is that the days just prior to Yom Kippur are going to be quite a bit cooler than these past few days, but Yom Kippur itself could be a tad too warm. Moreover, there may even be warmer days that follow. Still, temperatures in the upper atmosphere are forecast to fall quite steadily, and we'll need these temperatures to be relatively low before we can get any substantial fall rains.
Even though the future is uncertain, the past seems less so. For instance, the weather days of Rosh HaShanah were really quite nice. I saw plenty of people outdoors, and most seems quite happy to be heading home around lunch time after the morning Shofar blowing. Of course, we all know that the day long (if not longer) prayers of Yom Kippur will soon be upon us. I have it on good authority that there are some synagogues that pray so slowly they don't even finish by nightfall, and that there are a few that continue all the way to Passover. That's what's called dedication, especially since the fast doesn't end until the shofar blowing at the end of services.
It's strange to see people with such dedication, but a stranger thing happened to me. I had a broken dryer fixed about the same time that my laundry room fan broke. The heating element was broken and the fan didn't spin fast enough to remove the room humidity (the latter independently confirmed). Of course, a day or so later I called the repair-person to let him know that the element was broken again, and of course he came and pointed out that it was working fine. Strangely enough the fan also works fine again.
There are three possibilities that can explain these strange happenings. The first is that both the dryer and fan fixed themselves. The second is that I was mistaken about the dryer -- but this doesn't explain the broken fan that now works even though no one came to fix it. The third is that our dryer was temporarily replaced with a broken dryer from another universe, and some poor soul now has both a broken dryer and a broken laundry room fan.
I think that the third option is the most likely, but I'd rather spend my next few months forecasting weather (I can hypothesize, pontificate, and expound, and even be wrong -- yet still have a shred of credibility), then speculate about dryers that fix themselves.
Have a nice holiday.
Barry Lynn
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