Good Afternoon:
Special Weather Statement for Southern and South-Central Israel
A relatively small, but intense storm system should move through the Sinai today and then swing northward towards southern Israel.
Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms should occur from about midnight until tomorrow (Tuesday Afternoon) in the central and southern Negev, from Eilat, through Mitzpe Rimon, and possibly up to Beer-Sheva.
Flooding of streams and rivers is very likely throughout the Negev, and possibly in the Dead-Sea Basin east of Jerusalem.
Hail could also damage cars and agricultural interests.
Barry Lynn
Monday, February 24, 2020
Thursday, February 13, 2020
Weather It Is (Tired Out)
Good Evening:
There is record cold in the polar and artic regions, which have produced very high values of the Artic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO: https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/). The positive NAO has been associated with our plentiful rainfall this winter, although there are most likely other factors as well. The positive NAO tends to build a ridge of warmer air of western Europe, allowing a trough and colder air to build southward over the eastern Mediterranean. Ironically, the United States has been experiencing a very mild winter after years of extreme cold, but it will no longer be able to possible to attribute melting sea-ice and glaciers to global warming -- since the cold in the polar and artic regions is so intense.
If you were outside (like in Herzliya, where I was for lunch at Jems Herzliya restaurant), you probably noticed just how warm (and beautiful) it was today (Thursday), and Friday will also be especially nice. Nevertheless, a trough should drop southward by Shabbat and showery, if not rainy weather should persist from Sunday until possibly the end of the month.
Interestingly, temperatures are forecast to be on a downward trend as well. In fact, the deterministic GFS shows a snowstorm affecting our area on or about the 29th of the month. Considering how colder the northern areas are, there is, perhaps, an above normal chance that winter will actually turn cold enough for a late snow.
However, I'm not sure that the "Israel Winter Weather" group will last this long to see this through. Two of its members have fallen into solemnity, while the other just spent two days skiing on the Hermon, and was treated with two days of snow. It's easy to stick together when times are good and winter weather is (or always seems to be) on the horizon, but what about when the clock is ticking down, and soon no one will even care that it snowed a little bit the other night (in some places a little more and a little bit less of a little bit).
A recent article in The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/opinion/sunday/marriage-housework-gender-happiness.html?) summarizes research pertaining to the happiness and long term satisfaction of couples, no matter which type. The upshot is that woman in traditional relationships are the least satisfied. In contrast, when typical stereotype expectations are broken down, then better communication and more equal sharing of the burden of household work and child-rearing leads to lower stress and more time for couples to enjoy their family life -- together.
It seems almost ideal. Yet, the other day I heard this story about a wife seeking divorce (from her husband) from the Rabbinical Divorce Court. When asked why she wanted a divorce, she complained that he kept doing her laundry, making her bed, and cooking meals. She said that before she was married her laundry always smelled like fresh flowers, her bed was neatly made with tucked corners, and she ate what she wanted, and there was no kitchen mess. The Rabbinical judges suggested to her that she could "live" we these things and perhaps seek happiness in her relationship in other ways: perhaps a movie together, or a walk in the evening would make her forget her troubles.
She agreed to give it a try, but was back a couple months later, saying that her husband had finally "broken the camel's back" (see: https://www.yourdictionary.com/the-straw-that-broke-the-camel-s-back). "What was it," the Rabbis asked? Her reply: "he took the garbage out -- all five bags of it, and my whole morning schedule was just ruined. I was early everywhere I went and spent what felt like hours waiting for appointments and meetings."
The Rabbis huddled together, not sure what to do but knowing that they needed to take the complaints of this person (wife) very seriously. In the end, they brought the husband in, and suggested in very strong terms that he just might consider going back to being a "normal" husband, stop trying to help so much, and just let things be!
I heard that he lived happily ever after, and she stopped complaining. She didn't have time as she was very, very busy.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
There is record cold in the polar and artic regions, which have produced very high values of the Artic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO: https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/). The positive NAO has been associated with our plentiful rainfall this winter, although there are most likely other factors as well. The positive NAO tends to build a ridge of warmer air of western Europe, allowing a trough and colder air to build southward over the eastern Mediterranean. Ironically, the United States has been experiencing a very mild winter after years of extreme cold, but it will no longer be able to possible to attribute melting sea-ice and glaciers to global warming -- since the cold in the polar and artic regions is so intense.
If you were outside (like in Herzliya, where I was for lunch at Jems Herzliya restaurant), you probably noticed just how warm (and beautiful) it was today (Thursday), and Friday will also be especially nice. Nevertheless, a trough should drop southward by Shabbat and showery, if not rainy weather should persist from Sunday until possibly the end of the month.
Interestingly, temperatures are forecast to be on a downward trend as well. In fact, the deterministic GFS shows a snowstorm affecting our area on or about the 29th of the month. Considering how colder the northern areas are, there is, perhaps, an above normal chance that winter will actually turn cold enough for a late snow.
However, I'm not sure that the "Israel Winter Weather" group will last this long to see this through. Two of its members have fallen into solemnity, while the other just spent two days skiing on the Hermon, and was treated with two days of snow. It's easy to stick together when times are good and winter weather is (or always seems to be) on the horizon, but what about when the clock is ticking down, and soon no one will even care that it snowed a little bit the other night (in some places a little more and a little bit less of a little bit).
A recent article in The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/opinion/sunday/marriage-housework-gender-happiness.html?) summarizes research pertaining to the happiness and long term satisfaction of couples, no matter which type. The upshot is that woman in traditional relationships are the least satisfied. In contrast, when typical stereotype expectations are broken down, then better communication and more equal sharing of the burden of household work and child-rearing leads to lower stress and more time for couples to enjoy their family life -- together.
It seems almost ideal. Yet, the other day I heard this story about a wife seeking divorce (from her husband) from the Rabbinical Divorce Court. When asked why she wanted a divorce, she complained that he kept doing her laundry, making her bed, and cooking meals. She said that before she was married her laundry always smelled like fresh flowers, her bed was neatly made with tucked corners, and she ate what she wanted, and there was no kitchen mess. The Rabbinical judges suggested to her that she could "live" we these things and perhaps seek happiness in her relationship in other ways: perhaps a movie together, or a walk in the evening would make her forget her troubles.
She agreed to give it a try, but was back a couple months later, saying that her husband had finally "broken the camel's back" (see: https://www.yourdictionary.com/the-straw-that-broke-the-camel-s-back). "What was it," the Rabbis asked? Her reply: "he took the garbage out -- all five bags of it, and my whole morning schedule was just ruined. I was early everywhere I went and spent what felt like hours waiting for appointments and meetings."
The Rabbis huddled together, not sure what to do but knowing that they needed to take the complaints of this person (wife) very seriously. In the end, they brought the husband in, and suggested in very strong terms that he just might consider going back to being a "normal" husband, stop trying to help so much, and just let things be!
I heard that he lived happily ever after, and she stopped complaining. She didn't have time as she was very, very busy.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Monday, February 10, 2020
Weather It Is (Bitter Cold)
Good Morning:
Some light flurries today in the Jerusalem area, with snow showers up in the area of Safed and the Golan.
Tonight, bitter cold in the higher elevations, with chilly temperatures along coastal areas.
Temperatures from -1 to -2 C in the Jerusalem area, with as low as -4 C in Gush Etzion. Safed and surrounding higher mountain tops will range from -2 to -5 C. Temperatures in the coastal cities will be around 3 to 7 C, depending on location.
Some light flurries today in the Jerusalem area, with snow showers up in the area of Safed and the Golan.
Tonight, bitter cold in the higher elevations, with chilly temperatures along coastal areas.
Temperatures from -1 to -2 C in the Jerusalem area, with as low as -4 C in Gush Etzion. Safed and surrounding higher mountain tops will range from -2 to -5 C. Temperatures in the coastal cities will be around 3 to 7 C, depending on location.
Saturday, February 8, 2020
Weather It Is (Cold and a Period of Snow)
Good Evening:
A very cold air mass will develop tonight south of Turkey and then slide into Syria tomorrow (Sunday). It will then move very slowly away from us on Monday,
The best chance for measurable precipitation will be later tonight into tomorrow afternoon. At the same time, the coldest air of the year will settle in, and put us in the deep freeze until Tuesday. Hence, a period snow is possible tomorrow, and cold temperatures will create icy conditions. Flurries are possible on Monday, and temperatures will likely be near or below freezing.
Over the last few days, the storm off to our north has been forecast to approach ever closer, but the forecast settled in on Friday to its current forecast Sunday and Monday position. Were the storm to deviate in its forecast path further to the southwest, then the air in the upper atmosphere would cool more than forecast to produce a heavier snowfall. Based on the current projections, this is not likely.
Barry Lynn
A very cold air mass will develop tonight south of Turkey and then slide into Syria tomorrow (Sunday). It will then move very slowly away from us on Monday,
The best chance for measurable precipitation will be later tonight into tomorrow afternoon. At the same time, the coldest air of the year will settle in, and put us in the deep freeze until Tuesday. Hence, a period snow is possible tomorrow, and cold temperatures will create icy conditions. Flurries are possible on Monday, and temperatures will likely be near or below freezing.
Over the last few days, the storm off to our north has been forecast to approach ever closer, but the forecast settled in on Friday to its current forecast Sunday and Monday position. Were the storm to deviate in its forecast path further to the southwest, then the air in the upper atmosphere would cool more than forecast to produce a heavier snowfall. Based on the current projections, this is not likely.
Barry Lynn
Thursday, February 6, 2020
Weather It Is (Cold Update)
Good Evening:
The sun is setting on a beautiful day -- the kind of day you wish you could save in a bottle and open whenever you feel like it.
Yet, the weather is about to change as the coldest air of the season, and rival if not exceed the coldest air of the decade, as a storm makes its way into our area over the next few days.
As mentioned in our previous blog, we're going to get rain and cold, which will end in a deep freeze by Monday morning, but most likely the upper level trough will pass too far to our east to bring a significant snow to the Jerusalem area.
On the other hand, there has been some back and forth in the model forecasts between a wetter and colder situation versus just cold. The reason for this is that there are two storms, one moving eastward north of Great Britain from off the northern Atlantic and the other dropping down into Friday's trough from Siberia. The Atlantic storm is supposed to push the warm ridge of air over Europe and its downstream trough eastward, with the upper level trough sliding by to our east. If the Atlantic storm were to swing further north than forecast, it would allow the ridge to remain further west, bringing the upper level system closer to us on Sunday. It's not likely, but there is still some uncertainty in the forecast track of this storm, and hence our storm.
What is not uncertain, is the extreme cold to arrive Sunday and Monday, lasting into Tuesday.
Highlights.
1) Temperatures begin to fall tonight, Thursday night, as cold air rushes in.
2) Winds will increase and Near Gale or Gale Force Winds will develop by sometime Shabbat afternoon, before tapering off towards Sunday morning.
3) Three Periods of precipitation: rain late tonight (Thursday Night), Friday afternoon into Friday night, and Shabbat, with forecast rain amounts generally 25 to 50 mm. Thunderstorms possible Thursday night/Friday morning as storms develop in desert dusty air.
4) Rain mixed with sleet in the higher elevations around Jerusalem Friday night and Shabbat day.
5) Sunday: temperatures fall sharply colder with periods of light rain and snow in the higher elevations of the Galilee and Jerusalem. Snow on the Hermon. The chance of an accumulating snow is currently 20%, but wet roads could freeze over towards Monday morning.
6) The extreme cold continues countrywide into Tuesday morning.
Stay tuned for updates,
Barry Lynn
The sun is setting on a beautiful day -- the kind of day you wish you could save in a bottle and open whenever you feel like it.
Yet, the weather is about to change as the coldest air of the season, and rival if not exceed the coldest air of the decade, as a storm makes its way into our area over the next few days.
As mentioned in our previous blog, we're going to get rain and cold, which will end in a deep freeze by Monday morning, but most likely the upper level trough will pass too far to our east to bring a significant snow to the Jerusalem area.
On the other hand, there has been some back and forth in the model forecasts between a wetter and colder situation versus just cold. The reason for this is that there are two storms, one moving eastward north of Great Britain from off the northern Atlantic and the other dropping down into Friday's trough from Siberia. The Atlantic storm is supposed to push the warm ridge of air over Europe and its downstream trough eastward, with the upper level trough sliding by to our east. If the Atlantic storm were to swing further north than forecast, it would allow the ridge to remain further west, bringing the upper level system closer to us on Sunday. It's not likely, but there is still some uncertainty in the forecast track of this storm, and hence our storm.
What is not uncertain, is the extreme cold to arrive Sunday and Monday, lasting into Tuesday.
Highlights.
1) Temperatures begin to fall tonight, Thursday night, as cold air rushes in.
2) Winds will increase and Near Gale or Gale Force Winds will develop by sometime Shabbat afternoon, before tapering off towards Sunday morning.
3) Three Periods of precipitation: rain late tonight (Thursday Night), Friday afternoon into Friday night, and Shabbat, with forecast rain amounts generally 25 to 50 mm. Thunderstorms possible Thursday night/Friday morning as storms develop in desert dusty air.
4) Rain mixed with sleet in the higher elevations around Jerusalem Friday night and Shabbat day.
5) Sunday: temperatures fall sharply colder with periods of light rain and snow in the higher elevations of the Galilee and Jerusalem. Snow on the Hermon. The chance of an accumulating snow is currently 20%, but wet roads could freeze over towards Monday morning.
6) The extreme cold continues countrywide into Tuesday morning.
Stay tuned for updates,
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, February 4, 2020
Weather It Is (Winter Returns)
Good Evening:
Highlights:
1) A Winter Storm arrives Thursday night and lasts into Monday
2) Gale force winds late Friday into Motzei Shabbat.
3) Temperatures approach freezing in the Jerusalem area Friday night and continue their downward trend into Monday morning (possibly below freezing).
4) Periods of precipitation, with the greatest likelihood of snow in the higher elevations around Jerusalem late Friday night into Shabbat Morning.
5) A possible, but not likely redevelopment of the storm as the coldest air at lower levels moves in Monday.
Discussion:
There's a lot about to happen weatherwise to our small country. Of course, it's not just the weather here, but the weather over there in Europe that will also make a difference.
A large ridge of high pressure will amplify from northern Africa north through Spain, France, and Great Britain. In response, a mass of cold air will slide southward into western Turkey. Were we to freeze the picture there, we might expect it to move directly into the eastern Mediterranean, bringing us a major winter storm.
However, a storm moving north of Britain will flatten the ridge, cutting off the supply of cold air into the developing trough, before it can move into the eastern Mediterranean. After a brief weakening, though, there appears to be a redevelopment as colder air moves back into the trough. Yet, the upper level trough appears to again pass to our north and east Friday night into Shabbat.
Still, there is uncertainty in just how close the upper trough will come Friday night into Shabbat, and if there will indeed be a redevelopment early next week.
What does seem "certain" is the cold, wintry, very windy weather (gale force winds) on Friday and Shabbat, with the coldest weather to occur Monday morning.
As for snow, currently, the best chance for snow in the central mountains is Friday night into Shabbat morning, but at the moment it appears to be a wet snow with a light accumulation in Gush Etzion, rather than in Jerusalem. We can't be more specific about precipitation types and amounts until we see our extremely high resolution forecasts on Thursday and/or Friday morning.
As for Monday, we'll be able to see more clearly if there will be a redevelopment of the upper trough towards the end of the week.
Just as there seems to be a lot of uncertainty in the weather forecast, there seems to be a lot of uncertainty about the "Deal of the Century." Yet, I'd like to comment on just a few aspects of the response to the deal, rather than the deal itself -- which provides us with an interesting and disturbing idea of how the world relates to the Jewish people, and how, we in part, have been responsible for our own problems (but just so).
First, the Boycott Divest and Sanction group(s) accuses Israel of being an Apartheid state. Yet, when the plan proposed to break off some of the Arab towns in the "Wadi Triangle" and incorporate them into a Palestinian State, the residents of these states protested strongly against this aspect of the plan (https://www.timesofisrael.com/residents-of-arab-israeli-towns-fume-as-trump-plan-suggests-they-be-resettled/ ; https://www.timesofisrael.com/hundreds-of-arab-israelis-protest-us-plan-blast-bid-to-transfer-villages/). These strong protests put the lie to the BDS and Left-Wing portrayal of Israel in such ill terms.
Second, the plan allows for there to be 15 Israeli enclaves with the "State of Palestine." The leaders of these communities say that this idea will be unworkable, and hence a Palestinian State can never come into being. Considering that many of these communities were founded to prevent a third (Jordan and Gaza) Palestinian state from coming into being, there argument against the plan is disingenious at best.
The European Union strongly warned Israel not to go forward with any annexation plans (https://www.timesofisrael.com/eu-warns-israel-any-west-bank-annexation-cant-go-unchallenged/). In the same statement, the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted that the Armistice line (actually, not a border) from 1948 is sacrosanct, the post 1967 war "borders" null and void, and any changes to the 1948 line would preclude Israel from ending with a net land gain during the "negotiations." However, in the next breath, he states: “To build a just and lasting peace, the unresolved final status issues must be decided through direct negotiations between both parties.” So, which is it? Does the European Union decide our borders are do direct negotiations decide them?
And with whom? We would need to negotiate with the man of a "thousand times no," Mr. Abbas, who has rejected the plan and by the way also rejects the European idea of that Palestinians would be on one side of the armistice line and Israelis on the other. He insists that the children of the refugees from 1948 and their children be allowed to settle on the Israeli side.
So, there you have it: hypocrisy on all sides.
But, with all that, one still has to wonder why the European Union insists that the Old City of Jerusalem and areas east of the armistice line should revert to the local Arab populations now known as the Palestinians. Why aren't Israelis allowed to live over this line or govern the Old City? Why aren't Israelis allowed to retain land won during defensive wars, and originally allocated to them in the Balfour Declaration, later the League of Nations, and even after the 1967 war under the auspices of UN resolution 242?
My strong feeling is that it irks many Europeans that Israel has survived and prospered. You see, many have a general dislike for the Jewish people and feel that they have satisfied their guilt over the Holocaust by allowing us to live in the indefensible borders (Abba Eban referred to them as "Auschwitz borders") delineated by the armistice line. Afterall, how better to encourage our demise than insist that we go back to these borders.
Sorry, Mr Borrell, you can insist that Jews should again go to the gas chamber, but your 75 years too late: the Jewish state was founded just for these purposes, to protect the Jewish people from people like you, and to provide a place where the Jewish people could reclaim its history, flourish, and live without fear of your prejudice. You may not go away, but we are still here, and we're not your Shtetl Jew anymore (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-february-4-2020/#liveblog-entry-2234467).
Barry Lynn
Highlights:
1) A Winter Storm arrives Thursday night and lasts into Monday
2) Gale force winds late Friday into Motzei Shabbat.
3) Temperatures approach freezing in the Jerusalem area Friday night and continue their downward trend into Monday morning (possibly below freezing).
4) Periods of precipitation, with the greatest likelihood of snow in the higher elevations around Jerusalem late Friday night into Shabbat Morning.
5) A possible, but not likely redevelopment of the storm as the coldest air at lower levels moves in Monday.
Discussion:
There's a lot about to happen weatherwise to our small country. Of course, it's not just the weather here, but the weather over there in Europe that will also make a difference.
A large ridge of high pressure will amplify from northern Africa north through Spain, France, and Great Britain. In response, a mass of cold air will slide southward into western Turkey. Were we to freeze the picture there, we might expect it to move directly into the eastern Mediterranean, bringing us a major winter storm.
However, a storm moving north of Britain will flatten the ridge, cutting off the supply of cold air into the developing trough, before it can move into the eastern Mediterranean. After a brief weakening, though, there appears to be a redevelopment as colder air moves back into the trough. Yet, the upper level trough appears to again pass to our north and east Friday night into Shabbat.
Still, there is uncertainty in just how close the upper trough will come Friday night into Shabbat, and if there will indeed be a redevelopment early next week.
What does seem "certain" is the cold, wintry, very windy weather (gale force winds) on Friday and Shabbat, with the coldest weather to occur Monday morning.
As for snow, currently, the best chance for snow in the central mountains is Friday night into Shabbat morning, but at the moment it appears to be a wet snow with a light accumulation in Gush Etzion, rather than in Jerusalem. We can't be more specific about precipitation types and amounts until we see our extremely high resolution forecasts on Thursday and/or Friday morning.
As for Monday, we'll be able to see more clearly if there will be a redevelopment of the upper trough towards the end of the week.
Just as there seems to be a lot of uncertainty in the weather forecast, there seems to be a lot of uncertainty about the "Deal of the Century." Yet, I'd like to comment on just a few aspects of the response to the deal, rather than the deal itself -- which provides us with an interesting and disturbing idea of how the world relates to the Jewish people, and how, we in part, have been responsible for our own problems (but just so).
First, the Boycott Divest and Sanction group(s) accuses Israel of being an Apartheid state. Yet, when the plan proposed to break off some of the Arab towns in the "Wadi Triangle" and incorporate them into a Palestinian State, the residents of these states protested strongly against this aspect of the plan (https://www.timesofisrael.com/residents-of-arab-israeli-towns-fume-as-trump-plan-suggests-they-be-resettled/ ; https://www.timesofisrael.com/hundreds-of-arab-israelis-protest-us-plan-blast-bid-to-transfer-villages/). These strong protests put the lie to the BDS and Left-Wing portrayal of Israel in such ill terms.
Second, the plan allows for there to be 15 Israeli enclaves with the "State of Palestine." The leaders of these communities say that this idea will be unworkable, and hence a Palestinian State can never come into being. Considering that many of these communities were founded to prevent a third (Jordan and Gaza) Palestinian state from coming into being, there argument against the plan is disingenious at best.
The European Union strongly warned Israel not to go forward with any annexation plans (https://www.timesofisrael.com/eu-warns-israel-any-west-bank-annexation-cant-go-unchallenged/). In the same statement, the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted that the Armistice line (actually, not a border) from 1948 is sacrosanct, the post 1967 war "borders" null and void, and any changes to the 1948 line would preclude Israel from ending with a net land gain during the "negotiations." However, in the next breath, he states: “To build a just and lasting peace, the unresolved final status issues must be decided through direct negotiations between both parties.” So, which is it? Does the European Union decide our borders are do direct negotiations decide them?
And with whom? We would need to negotiate with the man of a "thousand times no," Mr. Abbas, who has rejected the plan and by the way also rejects the European idea of that Palestinians would be on one side of the armistice line and Israelis on the other. He insists that the children of the refugees from 1948 and their children be allowed to settle on the Israeli side.
So, there you have it: hypocrisy on all sides.
But, with all that, one still has to wonder why the European Union insists that the Old City of Jerusalem and areas east of the armistice line should revert to the local Arab populations now known as the Palestinians. Why aren't Israelis allowed to live over this line or govern the Old City? Why aren't Israelis allowed to retain land won during defensive wars, and originally allocated to them in the Balfour Declaration, later the League of Nations, and even after the 1967 war under the auspices of UN resolution 242?
My strong feeling is that it irks many Europeans that Israel has survived and prospered. You see, many have a general dislike for the Jewish people and feel that they have satisfied their guilt over the Holocaust by allowing us to live in the indefensible borders (Abba Eban referred to them as "Auschwitz borders") delineated by the armistice line. Afterall, how better to encourage our demise than insist that we go back to these borders.
Sorry, Mr Borrell, you can insist that Jews should again go to the gas chamber, but your 75 years too late: the Jewish state was founded just for these purposes, to protect the Jewish people from people like you, and to provide a place where the Jewish people could reclaim its history, flourish, and live without fear of your prejudice. You may not go away, but we are still here, and we're not your Shtetl Jew anymore (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-february-4-2020/#liveblog-entry-2234467).
Barry Lynn
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