Sunday, December 30, 2018

Weather It Is (The Tension Builds)

Good Evening:

Last week we spoke about the things we know, the things we know are not known, and the things that we don't know we don't know.

There are still plenty of things we don't know we don't know, but the things we know (or don't know) are becoming better known.

For instance, we see that our next storm -- to arrive immediately after the relatively weak (but still) wet) storm affecting us now will bring cold temperatures aloft, but nothing too chilly at lower levels. This means periods of rain mixed with graupel/hail.  This storm will be arriving from our west, as higher heights (NAO) build over Greenland - meaning that initially the ridge trough couplet (west to east, respectively) will be located at first too far to the west -- so the lower levels in the next storm will be moderated by the warm sea.

In contrast, we now have indications that the storm that should follow Shabbat or early next week will arrive from the north (as Siberian air makes its way southward).  Our current forecasts show a 60/40 in split in favor of extremely cold temperatures aloft.  This means that the forecasts are clustering around either a cold, snowy "solution" to the equations that describe our future weather or a warmer solution, with a lean toward the colder forecasts. However, there is less certainty about lower level temperatures. Still, many ensemble members show temperatures below freezing at least at some point during the storm.

So, we know that we can be more positive about the possibility of our first snow (in the Jerusalem area) early next week, but there are still a lot of unknowns (just how directly the storm arrives from the north) and even unknowns we don't know -- besides model errors, how many people want snow or don't want snow, which can sometimes tip the balance.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, December 27, 2018

Weather It Is (Things We Know: Or will it Snow?)

Good Afternoon:

I am sure that many readers appreciate the heavy rainfall, but more it must be satisfying to know that winter in Israel can still feel like winter's past!

To understand what may be in store for us next week, we need to review a bit of history.


After the attack of "9/11," former United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld stated:

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know."

Mr. Rumsfeld was far more prescient than he possibly knew.  He might just have been speaking about the weather, if not the weather we "expect' next week.

Here are the things we know:  We know that the global weather forecasts are showing the possibility of the coldest weather in many years to arrive next week.  We also know that there will be prolonged and heavy precipitation over several days. Lastly, we know that there is no "flip-side" to the forecasts. We're not seeing an equal number of equally unusually warm vs unusually cold forecasts within the global ensemble.   It's either winter as usual or winter as we've not known it for many years (perhaps going back to the time when snow fell in Tel-Aviv in 1950 (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Israel).  

However, there are many known unknowns.  For example, there is something referred to as the North Atlantic Oscillation.  It has no significance by itself, but a negative NAO index indicates a weather pattern that can produce strong storms, but storms that drop down west of Cyprus, and then move across the sea. This means that these storms warm up in their lower levels too much for any heavy snow in the Jerusalem area.  While half our forecasts are indicating abnormally cold air towards the end of next week,  the other half are not. . We just don't know how strong a "Ridge" of warm air will build over Greenland (a negative NAO) -- which will determine not only how much cold air arrives earlier versus later in the week, but just how much of our precipitation falls as snow.

We also have unknown, unknowns: we often assume that when the forecast synoptic pattern of the global forecast indicates certainty (> 90%) then we can confidently use a higher resolution forecast model to forecast the details of the upcoming weather event.  However, there are unknown errors and non-linear interactions that can grow to even create variability in an otherwise "certain" synoptic forecast pattern.  This can turn what looks like a sure snow event into a missed forecast, and even our higher resolution forecasts can't correct for that (as they depend on the information they receive from the global model).

So, we left with uncertainty, but "hope" too (if you like snow). In any case, I can state with near certainty that a lot of people will be following the weather over the next several days and hoping for Jerusalem snow.

Barry Lynn

Monday, December 24, 2018

Weather It Is (Rainy with Some Ice)

Good Evening:

As we head into the end of the month, we've arrived at an almost: an almost (Jerusalem) snow storm.

Tomorrow, the winds will switch to the southwest at all levels of the atmosphere, bringing with them dry and warmer air, as well as dust.  However,  by Wednesday, the winds are forecast to switch back to the west by northwest, and temperatures will plummet.  With the plummeting temperatures will come plenty of moisture, such that rain should return from the north to the northern Negev, and last into Friday, if not Shabbat.

On Thursday, forecast mean ensemble temperatures with this storm will be close to zero at 850 mb, and close to -10 C at 700 mb.  This will combine with average temperatures at 500 mb close to -25 degrees.  For snow to fall in Jerusalem, though, we need temperatures two to three degrees colder than the mean values just mentioned.  It seems unlikely that we will reach these values, even if the coldest forecasts among the set of 20 forecasts actually occurs.  Hence, while there is a chance of wet snow/rain on Thursday, it will more likely be rain mixed with ice pellets.

One might think that after our weather active November and December that January might take a few days off to bring us a bit more sun and warmth.  However, the long range forecast shows cold (Israeli winter) weather continuing the first two weeks of January with periods of precipitation within.

We'll keep you posted.

Barry Lynn

Monday, December 17, 2018

Weather It Is (Stormy Times)

Good Afternoon:

While the weather outside is pretty tranquil, there is a cool breeze and a definite chill in the air. You know things are serious when my Wife asks if it is going to snow.

Unlike me, she is a native Israel and very "in-tune" with the weather -- so long as she doesn't get confused by anything I might tell her.

There will be a series of storms in the next couple of weeks as storms move in from our northwest, before exiting to our east.  There is even a hint of potentially a more significant storm as we move into the last week of December, with cold air arriving directly from the north.  We've been seeing various members of the GEFS show temperatures below freezing at 850 mb the last week of December, which is necessary for snow to fall in the central mountains.  In fact, you can see exactly that on the enclosed graph that shows the 850 mb temperatures over the next couple of weeks.  Note that all members of the ensemble (each member is a line) indicate that the temperatures will be falling through the first half of the two week period (this coming week).  Then, about half the members remain pretty much the same, but a quarter warm up and a quarter of them get even colder with some forecasts going below freezing. (Actually, the first week of January also looks to be cold, based on the CFS (the Climate Forecast Systems Model)).

So, are you an optimist or a pessimist, and how shall we define that?  Perspective and historical background is everything.  "Some like it cold, some like it hot, and some like it in the pot, 9 days old."

In any case, it is interesting to note the perspective of Saeb Erekat, the so-called foreign minister of the "State of Palestine." Responding to Australia recognizing "West Jerusalem" as Israel's capital he said:  "All of Jerusalem remains a final status issue for negotiations, while East Jerusalem, under international law, is an integral part of the occupied Palestinian territory"  (italics added) see: https://www.timesofisrael.com/erekat-slams-australian-recognition-of-west-jerusalem-as-israels-capital/).  What he says might be construed as a contradiction, or he simply means "what is mine is mine and what is yours is mine" (https://torah.org/learning/pirkei-avos-chapter5-13/). It's amazing how well Mr. Erekat knows Jewish religious texts, for someone who denies that Jerusalem was ever part of Jewish history or that the Jewish Temples ever existed. Or perhaps he is just a wicked man, as so aptly described in Pirkei Avot (Ethics of our Fathers).

Barry Lynn

Saturday, December 8, 2018

Weather It Is (Rainy Weather Continues)

Good Evening:

It's not often that I get to bask in the accolades of my admirers -- there aren't many and they don't all live in the same place.  Still, it was nice to know that I've done a good job this year both forecasting the weather and arranging for quite a number of stormy days (we've got to sell an interesting product).

Fortunately, like a hitter on a hot streak, the rainy and wintry weather is forecast to continue through this coming week.  The next substantial rain will result from a large amplified ridge (over western Europe) combining with a deep trough over the Mediterranean.  It should arrive by Tuesday/Wednesday, and may be followed by another storm early the following week (but there is also the possibility that warmer and drier air could end our rainy streak).

It's raining while I write this blog, and it has generally been raining over a large portion of the country from about Jerusalem northward for a couple of days.  You probably heard that over 150 mm of rain fell in places closer to the coast, flooding streets and even buildings.  What was interesting about this storm was just how long it basically stayed in one location, with persistent heavy rain areas just north of areas with lighter amounts of rain (we had "just" 25 mm).

One can see below a forecast from our ensemble, which showed heavy rain falling within a 3 hour period Thursday night from Ashdod north to Netanya.  The forecast correctly depicted the sharp north to south gradient of the area of heavy rain, and it did so throughout the storm.

This is reassuring, and points out the usefulness of ensemble (multi-forecasts) that can correctly predict small scale, but very important differences in rainfall.

Have a good week, and Happy Chanukah.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Weather It Is (Special Weather Statement)

Good afternoon:

A strong and very moist storm will bring extremely heavy rains to central Israel, with heavy (but lighter rains both over northern and southern areas).

Forecasts show greater than 100 mm of rain over central Israel, including Jerusalem, from Thursday morning into Friday, which will most likely cause flooding of streets and streams.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, December 2, 2018

Weather It Is (A Wet Chanukah)

Good Afternoon:

There's a mosquito in our room, my wife says.  However, while she says she's heard it every night, I've only heard it once, and I've never seen it.

A while ago, it got so bad that we bought a Mosquito zapping light.  That should have solved the problem, but mosquitos (unlike humans) evolve quickly and our particular brand of mosquito spent their time daring each other to fly as close to the light without getting zapped!

Fortunately for us, Mosquitoes don't wear fur coats, and when it soon turns quite chilly and wet all we need to do is sleep with the windows open and the heat off, and the Mosquito zapping light will look like the best place to be.

So, why am I writing about Mosquitoes?  Because I didn't want to mention from the "get-go" that temperatures are already falling at upper levels of the atmosphere, and tomorrow afternoon will probably see our warmest temperatures for some time to follow. But, it's not just that, it's the wind and rain that will probably persist until the end of the week, if not the end of the Chanukah holiday. If you have plans to light outside, you'll probably need an umbrella, and possibly a blow torch to light those candles.

The wet, cold, and wind is "courtesy" of a large amplified trough, initially located over central Europe with an extension into the eastern Mediterranean. The trough is actually forecast to amplify further and open a connection into the Ukraine, Belarus, and the polar regions of Siberia -- which could bring our coldest air in quite some time just as we move from Chanukah into the middle of the month.

All this spells pretty much doom for the mosquito population until next year. While, I don't suppose one of "our" readers can help us with this, perhaps someone can explain some other mysteries I've had pertaining to communication among species.

For instance, cat owners have probably spent a good deal of their waking hours exchanging "Meows" with their cats, and I've always wondered just what was said during these conversations. I'd like to know what I'm saying, too!  Keep in mind, that you hardly ever hear a cat say "Meow" to another cat, so we're probably talking communication on a very basic level -- more like "baby talk."

Speaking of which, babies like to talk, but really no-one knows what they are saying, except perhaps other babies.  Realizing this, and realizing that I had a unique opportunity to decipher baby talk, I asked my then 2 + year old daughter (who had just learned to speak "real" words) just what her brother and sisters were "jabbing" about.  Amazingly enough, she couldn't tell me -- she'd already forgotten baby talk.

I think it's a shame because if I could understand baby talk, then perhaps I could teach my wife how to understand me and vice-versa.  Right now, the only word I really know in Hebrew is the word ("Meatzben") which means annoying, irritating, frustrating, and bothersome all in one word.  She didn't tell me what it meant, but I could guess (and I've heard the word often enough to remember it well).

Of course, there's the small issue of understanding the nuances of how husband and wives speak to each other.  For instance, the wife says: "honey, the garbage needs to go out," and the husband says: "I'll do it," which means I will do it (in the future) -- and that's where the trouble starts.

Fortunately,  I now have a calendar where I get a "smiley" face for every day I behave like the ideal husband I wish to be, and I find its a great motivator.

On a final note: George H.W Bush passed away the other day.  While he and his Secretary of State had disagreements with the Israeli government during his presidency (https://www.timesofisrael.com/how-lonely-little-george-h-w-bush-changed-the-us-israel-relationship/), various articles have documented how much he helped the Jewish people in their time of need (https://www.jpost.com/American-Politics/Bushs-Israel-legacy-A-mixed-bag-of-positive-steps-but-little-warmth-573296).  Perhaps, with this in mind, he died peacefully in his sleep.

Chanukah Samaech!

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Stormy Weather On The Way

Good Afternoon:

It is interesting to note that our next storm should arrive in the eastern Mediterranean by Thursday, and that already the long range forecast is showing another storm to follow before the end of the month.

One might have the impression that this year is rainier compared to last year (at least in the Jerusalem area).  Considering that this year is supposed to be rainier than last year then one could be excused for thinking so.

However, when it comes to the weather, our memories are usually faulty (which is good for the weatherman who sometimes just wishes that folks would forget yesterday's forecast (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/16/nyregion/snowstorm-total-delays-commute.html). In fact, last year was also rainy until now, but then we had a three week period in December when there was no rain. Moreover, there were no especially rainy (and cold) storms last winter.  It seemed, instead, like just one rainy shower after another.

Our next storm should move past Cyprus on Thursday/Friday and then move just off our coast.  There's plenty of cold air and moisture associated with this storm, but it is still too early to say where the heaviest precipitation will fall, or how much. Nevertheless, it looks like it will be "wet" from Thursday through Shabbat, with thunderstorms also possible.

There are lots of things to write about besides the weather. But one item struck me in particular: the news about the El-Al flight that landed in Athens in order for a number of passengers to keep Shabbat (https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/We-were-kidnapped-by-El-Al-say-passengers-on-horror-flight-from-New-York-572234). Passengers accused the pilot/crew of "kidnap," and being misled about whether the plane would return to the gate in New York to let off passengers who did not want to fly on Shabbat.  Yet, one shouldn't forget that passengers voluntarily booked this "last" flight before Shabbat, and should have known that it could be delayed.  Moreover, where do passengers get the idea that they can deplane after being seating, or even after the plane has left the gate?

The whole situation is almost like a scene from "Chelm," and almost seems too surreal to be real.

I find it amazing that El Al actually diverted to Athens, Greece (making an extra stop (and putting the passengers at risk), and inconveniencing those who do fly on Shabbat). Moreover, El Al arranged hotel rooms and through the local Chabad full Shabbat meals -- leading some to say it was one of the most amazing Shabbat's they ever had (https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/10-lessons-from-the-el-al-flight-to-athens/).   Perhaps it's just business, or perhaps it's something more, but...

All I can say is: "only in Israel."

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (More Rain, Storms)

Good Afternoon:

It is interesting to note that our next storm should arrive in the eastern Mediterranean by Thursday, and that already the long range forecast is showing another storm to follow before the end of the month.

One might have the impression that this year is rainier compared to last year (at least in the Jerusalem area).  Considering that this year is supposed to be rainier than last year then one could be excused for thinking so.

However, when it comes to the weather, our memories are usually faulty (which is good for the weatherman who sometimes just wishes that folks would forget yesterday's forecast (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/16/nyregion/snowstorm-total-delays-commute.html). In fact, last year was also rainy until now, but then we had a three week period in December when there was no rain. Moreover, there were no especially rainy (and cold) storms last winter.  It seemed, instead, like just one rainy shower after another.

Our next storm should move past Cyprus on Thursday/Friday and then move just off our coast.  There's plenty of cold air and moisture associated with this storm, but it is still too early to say where the heaviest precipitation will fall, or how much. Nevertheless, it looks like it will be "wet" from Thursday through Shabbat, with thunderstorms also possible.

There are lots of things to write about besides the weather. But one item struck me in particular: the news about the El-Al flight that landed in Athens in order for a number of passengers to keep Shabbat (https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/We-were-kidnapped-by-El-Al-say-passengers-on-horror-flight-from-New-York-572234). Passengers accused the pilot/crew of "kidnap," and being misled about whether the plane would return to the gate in New York to let off passengers who did not want to fly on Shabbat.  Yet, one shouldn't forget that passengers voluntarily booked this "last" flight before Shabbat, and should have known that it could be delayed.  Moreover, where do passengers get the idea that they can deplane after being seating, or even after the plane has left the gate?

The whole situation is almost like a scene from "Chelm," and almost seems too surreal to be real.

I find it amazing that El Al actually diverted to Athens, Greece (making an extra stop (and putting the passengers at risk), and inconveniencing those who do fly on Shabbat). Moreover, El Al arranged hotel rooms and through the local Chabad full Shabbat meals -- leading some to say it was one of the most amazing Shabbat's they ever had (https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/10-lessons-from-the-el-al-flight-to-athens/).   Perhaps it's just business, or perhaps it's something more, but...

All I can say is: "only in Israel."

Barry Lynn

Sunday, November 11, 2018

Winter on Its Way

Good Evening:

Last Friday was heard in the hills of Jerusalem the crack of the bat -- again. I wasn't there because I was working on finishing my paper on forecasting snow. I figure the harder I work the more likely it is to snow this winter (preferably here).

Why was the crack of the bat heard again?  Because while it did get cooler and there were periods of rain, it was really more like the weather of yore, rather than the weather of fore.  There was a fairly nice rain (about a 1/4 of an inch) and it was accompanied by the loudest booms heard here since the last "real" Gaza war -- only it was the real thing instead of those "fake" hydrometeors (i.e., missiles) that came our way then (for some, since then and far too often).

It's actually a good thing I didn't make it to the game. It turns out that my right field chitchat partner hit a line drive home run to right field that I believe I mistook (from my window) as a crack of thunder.  As I said, it's good that I didn't come. Had I come, I am afraid that he would have never even seen the ball that spun into his bat's sweet spot, and then soared over the fence. I would have seen that pitch and who knows where it would have gone.

It was that kind of weather.  It felt like we were turning towards winter, but really the atmosphere was more like a Florida summer day or a New York summer day -- just not as hot.  That's what enabled the formation of afternoon (even deadly) thunderstorms, some of which caused severe flooding in the Jordan Valley, including Jordan itself. For my daughters, though, it was a chance to get excited about what we used to take for granted (growing up in NY), rain:

Well all that really was chit-chat.

But what is coming our way is not.  One might call it January weather in November, but others will just say that's how it used to be.  It's a real winter storm complete with a soaking rain that should last several days, strong winds, hail, lightning/thunder, and probably some flooding to go along with it. 

Tuesday will probably feel a bit balmy as winds blow from the south, but Wednesday should turn sharply cooler as a storm moves east of Cyprus.  Before it can exit, another storm should drop down from the west as we head into Shabbat, moisture should fill in at all levels of the atmosphere, and the rain should continue.

At the moment, we don't see any exit for this run of rainy, stormy days, and alas -- we may have truly heard the last "crack" until Springtime.  

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Really Is Coming)

Good Evening:

Last Friday was heard in the hills of Jerusalem the crack of the bat -- again. I wasn't there because I was working on finishing my paper on forecasting snow. I figure the harder I work the more likely it is to snow this winter (preferably here).

Why was the crack of the bat heard again?  Because while it did get cooler and there were periods of rain, it was really more like the weather of yore, rather than the weather of fore.  There was a fairly nice rain (about a 1/4 of an inch) and it was accompanied by the loudest booms heard here since the last "real" Gaza war -- only it was the real thing instead of those "fake" hydrometeors (i.e., missiles) that came our way then (for some, since then and far too often).

It's actually a good thing I didn't make it to the game. It turns out that my right field chitchat partner hit a line drive home run to right field that I believe I mistook (from my window) as a crack of thunder.  As I said, it's good that I didn't come. Had I come, I am afraid that he would have never even seen the ball that spun into his bat's sweet spot, and then soared over the fence. I would have seen that pitch and who knows where it would have gone.

It was that kind of weather.  It felt like we were turning towards winter, but really the atmosphere was more like a Florida summer day or a New York summer day -- just not as hot.  That's what enabled the formation of afternoon (even deadly) thunderstorms, some of which caused severe flooding in the Jordan Valley, including Jordan itself. For my daughters, though, it was a chance to get excited about what we used to take for granted (growing up in NY), rain:

Well all that really was chit-chat.

But what is coming our way is not.  One might call it January weather in November, but others will just say that's how it used to be.  It's a real winter storm complete with a soaking rain that should last several days, strong winds, hail, lightning/thunder, and probably some flooding to go along with it. 

Tuesday will probably feel a bit balmy as winds blow from the south, but Wednesday should turn sharply cooler as a storm moves east of Cyprus.  Before it can exit, another storm should drop down from the west as we head into Shabbat, moisture should fill in at all levels of the atmosphere, and the rain should continue.

At the moment, we don't see any exit for this run of rainy, stormy days, and alas -- we may have truly heard the last "crack" until Springtime.  

Barry Lynn


Saturday, November 3, 2018

Weather It Is (That's It)

Good Evening:

If one listened closely Friday morning, one would have heard the thud of balls being caught and the crack of the bat of balls being hit.  But, in the stiff, if not strong southerly wind, many of those balls travelled far and wide over the fence in left and center field.  In fact, even I hit a home run, but it was of the  "inside the park" variety.

Well, that's it!  No more warm fall days punctuated by the screams of grown men playing a kid's game.  Actually, many "older" folk play softball, so perhaps my language is a bit harsh. In any case, the arguments one sometimes hears would suggest that these are "grown" men playing at being kids.

Regardless, the weather will soon not be conducive to outside summer sports, at least as far as the eye can see.

The light southerly winds of today will give way to stronger northwesterly winds. The winds will bring much colder air, and since temperatures will fall most steeply at upper levels, there could be some thunderstorms as well as we move into the early week.  Showers may dot the landscape for the mid-week period as well.

While the temperatures gradually continue to cool thereafter, moisture will flow profusely as we approach Friday and Shabbat (Saturday), and our second "real" rain of the season will most likely be upon us.

And for those that like winter (and our tired of figuring out what to wear day to day), the colder temperatures and showers will probably continue into next week as well.

Have a good week,

Barry Lynn

Thursday, October 25, 2018

Weather It Is (Severe Storm)

Good Evening:

Today heralds the arrival of our first winter storm.  True, temperatures are more like fall than winter, but the winds, precipitation amounts, and length of the storm are more similar to winter storms of past years than to brief, but heavy rains of fall.

The heaviest rain and severe thunderstorms last night were south of Cyprus and west of Haifa, but today they were over northern Israel and along the Jordan Valley north and south of the Dead sea (see our "PulseRad" lightning map from this Thursday afternoon).

Tonight a strong cold front will move southward as the storm center moves into Lebanon and Syria.  The GFS (Global Forecast Model) is predicting rain over southern areas, but our high resolution ensemble predicts heavy rain stretching southwest near Gaza northeast through Jerusalem to just south of Lake Kinneret. The heaviest rain should fall late night into Friday morning, with showers and periods of rain over the center and southern areas on Friday. Rain should also occur over the far north.

The forecast is also showing not just rain, but lightning as well.  With the storms should come strong winds between 50 and 75 km, with higher values along the northwest coast.

The next week will see a return to more fall-like weather.

Barry Lynn

Monday, October 15, 2018

Weather It Is (Is There Rain On The Horizon?)

Good Afternoon:

The weather the past few days has been simply gorgeous.  The temperatures have been cool during the night and warm during the day, and there are even some clouds to make us think of winter.

The weather maps suggest that the cool weather should continue through the end of this week, but then there should be a turn towards more fall-like (what we now associate only with winter) weather.

Ahead of next week's storm, temperatures should warm into the upper 20s and maybe even the low 30s, but the mid-week period should see an increase in moisture from the west, as cool air sags southward into the eastern Mediterranean.

The latest forecast shows that the heavier precipitation with this upcoming storm will most likely stay to our north, but the Global Ensemble Forecasts System still shows the chance of rain in our area. If the system does move further south, we're likely to see our first significant rains.

The latest word from the Israel Water Authority, via Dr. Amir Givati (Head of Surface Water Management) is that all seasonal models are predicting above normal precipitation amounts for this coming winter.  The CFS-V2 is predicting normal surface temperatures, so we (or at least some of us) can hope that this winter will see snow return to Jerusalem during one of these precipitation events.

I really wish that I had the respect and admiration that will surely come Dr. Givati's way when the skies open up, and even a few folks head out to build their version of "Noach' Ark."

You see, while I've been a weather forecaster since sixth grade (I was angry after another missed snow-storm -- this was before the more "modern" era of weather forecasting), I've never really had much respect for it. My wife takes a jacket when I say it will be sunny, and she leaves it at home if I say it will rain. The kids never know what to wear, and if I tell them they come home grumpy (usually, they've dressed too warmly).

Perhaps realizing what the future would bring, I figured I better have a useful skill -- which is the reason I learned how to cook.  I also thought that it would help me in the dating department.  When at a loss of words, you can always say: "I can cook."  I found it a great conversation starter, and was always amazed at the look of amazement on the faces of whomever I happened to be meeting that night.  True, I never saw that person again, but at least we ended on what seemed like a high note.

Strangely, my wife seemed to appreciate both my ability to cook and the actualization of it. But, that was before we were married.

The other day I pointed out that my daughter had left the mixer on the counter.  True, her puff cakes were delicious, but the mixer still remained.  Rather than getting a word of understanding my wife pointed out that she preferred the mixer on the counter than I in the kitchen.

You'd think, though, that there are at least some other things a husband can do to make his wife happy, or at least help out.  After a summer of hard work (I in front of the computer, and she at the supermarket), my wife announced that she was on strike -- no more supermarket shopping for her. Here was my chance: I took off to the local supermarket (even without a list) and proudly announced that my wife was on strike and that I would be the primary shopper from now on.

What a fool I was: within a few weeks she was back at the supermarket.  She says that she just needed a few things, but a few things were really many things.  I'm so embarrassed -- isn't there anything a husband can do to gain a bit of appreciation?

Yes -- and my chance happened last night.  The phone rang in the situation room (downstairs).  It was my wife and she was hysterical.  When I arrived at the room her head was covered with dolls, pillows, and blankets.  All I could see was her nose.   Of course, so could the mosquito, which seemed to fly both in and out as I watched in horror.  "Help me," she said: "it's giant."

I told her to remain calm, relaxed, and hopeful -- she would be the prey, while I would hunt the hunter.  After an hour of a dive-bombing mosquito, and squeals of I don't know what, I and my high-powered flashlight found the mosquito hiding in the recess of our skylight.  With a whack that was the end of (the rather large) mosquito.

You should have seen the smile she had for me this morning: forget the cooking and shopping, I'm teaching my son how to kill mosquitos.

Barry Lynn

Monday, October 8, 2018

Weather It Is (Fall Has Arrived)

Good Afternoon:

The weather during the holidays was hot. Interestingly, towards the end of the hot spell we had 2 days of temperatures in the mid-30s, but with very low humidity, which were followed by temperatures in the low 30s, but with extremely high humidity. Here in the mountains of Jerusalem, it felt like we were living in Tel-Aviv.  One wonders what Tel-Avivians felt like.

Since then, winds have turned around and have been blowing predominately from the northwest and temperatures have consistently been more fall like than anything else. In fact, there are even periods of clouds to make one think that winter is around the corner.

The weather maps show streaks of moisture moving around low pressure over the Mediterranean. The situation should remain static for the next few days,  but then cooler air moving southward will intensify this low pressure as we move into Shabbat and early next week. This means the possibility of rain showers, most likely over northern areas.

In the meantime, temperatures will remain fall-like, with temperatures in the mid-20s in many locations.

With another two persons murdered at the Barkan Industrial site, one wonders when this might all end?  My mother in law mentioned that it's been the same for the last 70 years with no let up of the terrorism, and no change in the goals of our enemies (to destroy the State of Israel). In fact, there are even groups whose entire efforts are dedicated to preventing any type of coexistence between Palestinians and Israelis.  It's obvious that Hamas in Gaza is still dedicated to our destruction, even at the expense of the residents of Gaza.  The government in Ramallah --  in contrast -- tries to maintain a modicum of normalcy, but it supports and encourages terrorism among its citizens through education, religious indoctrination, and media.

The media in general likes to blame our Prime Minister for the dire prospects for peace. One wonders if their memory is only as long as yesterday's news.  For instance, in 1993, the Oslo accords were signed.  Yet, a few days later "President" Arafat told his audience that this was just a stage, a temporary detour on the way to our destruction.

There are those who also blame the failure of the peace process on the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin.  However, they forget that there were a number of bombings during his tenure and that of Prime Minister Peres.  Moreover, Prime Minister Netanyahu reached two agreements to withdraw from various "Palestinian" cities.

Even more, when the public decided that the peace process was going to slowly, they elected Prime Minister Barak.  Under the auspices of President Clinton, Mr. Barak offered President Arafat a very good deal. Instead of accepting the deal, Mr. Arafat launched a war that left 1000s dead.  Then, in 2008, Prime Minister Olmert offered President Abbas the "Deal of the Century," but Mr. Abbas never responded.

When Mr. Netanyahu returned to head the government, he also enforced a year long building freeze -- Mr. Abbas never accepted a meeting to talk peace.

So, the blame is clearly on the Palestinian leadership.  They have no interest in any deal that leaves two states for two peoples.

Given the continued incitement in Palestinian media and continued payments to terrorists for murder, I admire Prime Minister Netanyahu's for carefully fending off pressure from international bodies to give more land and/or control to the Palestinian Authority while doing his best to thwart the plans of terrorists.

Considering that many more people are killed on the roads (and Pedestrians, too), we should be thankful for our continued success and strive to end our own self-inflicted woes.

Barry Lynn




Sunday, September 16, 2018

Weather It Is (On Ari Fuld)


Today the People of Israel – let alone our town – lost someone very special. Ari Fuld “a hero,” “larger than life,” and “a champion for Israel” (1).  Our defense minister promised an iron fist (2), but no iron fist can beat back the tide of EU NGO’s pushing for a boycott of Israel, as well the end of the Jewish renaissance.  No, that Iron Fist will have to come from those who are simply like Ari – making a tireless case for the State of Israel, its beauty and its people.

Yet, in the end words fail us – they can never capture what really was, and what were our hopes for the future.

Yet, perhaps we can take solace in our children – who may someday grow up to be like Ari.  My wife, Rachel, asked me to write down what she felt and what she experienced today at school when the bad news fell like a heavy tree upon us all.

It was the time for me that I had to return to my class of 7th graders. I had to tell the kids what happened outside Rami Levy (of Gush Etzion) that morning.  I felt like I was choking – that I could not speak the words I needed to speak.  When I told them what happened, they each had their own reaction: some lowering their heads, while others grasping their ears and rocking back and forth – all  in anguish. 

I found myself in a class where most of the kids were crying.  The tears dripped onto their clothes, while others flowed onto the table.  Some tried to hide the tears, but they could not hide their anguish.

The only empty chair was the chair of Natan – a child whose smile (in better or even difficult times) fills the room.  The chair was not wet, and the chair didn’t rock, but the chair looked lonely and anguished.

I looked at their eyes – blue eyes tearing, brown eyes tearing, black eyes tearing, all shining, failing to reflect the sun streaming into the room.  Soon, I found myself looking at them through a veil of my own tears – tears of mine own anguish.

We read Tehillim (the Jewish book of Psalms) together. In Tehillim, we asked: “How long will the wicked exult (3)?”  I had no answer. I looked at their tears and had no answers.  But, then I began to think that if only we could collect all the tears and send them up to heaven, then perhaps, some day, “those who tearfully sow will reap in glad song (4)”.

(4)  Tehillim Ztzadec-Daled; 94.
(5) Tehillim Kuf-Bet-Vav, 126.

Saturday, September 15, 2018

Weather It Is (Cool Weather, Then Hotter For Yom Kippur)

Good Evening:

While not everyone gave voice to their thoughts about the weather today, I can imagine that most enjoyed the perfect weather, regardless.  Temperatures were in the 20s (Celsius) in many areas, and there was a light wind to cool off those who spent too much time in the sun.

The cool weather will continue until Tuesday, when low pressure should develop to our southwest over the Sinai desert.  This low pressure area will bring warmer, if not hot, temperatures for the "holiday" of Yom Kippur. Unfortunately, humidities will be above 50%, making it feel hotter than usual. There will also be a small chance for some tropical showers.

Cooler, but not cool weather should winds its way our way for Shabbat and the start of the Sukkot holiday.

Speaking of the holiday, I believe that my past studies qualify me to offer a modified Challah recipe that's gone over well with the family. I am speaking about my courses in both inorganic and organic chemistry.  In my classes, I was very good at adding "NaCL" (salt) to various other chemicals like "NaHCO3" (baking soda), as well as mixing up C6H12O6  (one of the simple sugars in wheat) and C18H36O2 (Stearic Acid; one of the ingredients in Canola Oil).  The point is I have a "license" to modify recipes so I decided to do just that (as the kids were not so happy with recipe I used on-line here: https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/24419/bread-machine-challah-ii).  So, here is the modified recipe.

1) 1 Cup room temperature water
2) 1/2 Cup Sugar
3) 1 Tb Honey
4) 1/4 cup vegetable oil (like Canola)
5) 2 1/4 tsp salt
6) 2 eggs (room temperature is best)
7) 2 cups white flour; 1 cup whole wheat flour, and 1 cup Spelt flour
8) 1 Tb instant yeast
9) 1/4 cup gluten

If you're making this in a bread machine, then just add in the order listed (set on the dough setting!). If you want to do it yourself, add the yeast to the water/sugar mixture and let it sit for a few minutes before adding 1 cup of the flour and mixing well -- then continue from there).  It's also best to knead this twice, with a small break in between to let the dough rise a bit (1/2 of its size, perhaps). If you want to add 3/4 cup of raisins, add them before the second kneading.

Before cooking, mix 1 egg, 1 Tb water, and 1 Tb Honey, and brush over the Challah (or Challot).

One good thing to know: it's much easier to braid Challah if you lengthen the previously rounded dough and then cut it into 3 strips lengthwise as well.  In otherwords, don't cut across the dough, cut parallel to it (or yourself). For two Challahs, cut this in half (across) before cutting lengthwise (or 2/3 and 1/3 sizes depending on what you want).

For the holiday, you can roll each strip into a circle.  

Bake at 180 C for 32 minutes, turning the oven on when you set the timer.  Here's a picture of our Challah loaves.  You can see I made an extra roll in order to have two Challahs left over for Shabbat morning.  Enjoy and Happy Holidays.  Barry Lynn


Sunday, September 2, 2018

Weather It Is (Hot)

Good Evening:

The weather is hot enough to turn on the air conditioning and to stay out of the sun.

After a relatively cool August,  the heat arrived as a heat low to our southeast built northwestward into our area.  The heat should last into late week before temperatures trend downwards into Shabbat (Saturday).

By that time a trough (or low pressure) in the middle atmosphere should move in from the northwest., and the low to our east should be replaced by a weak ridge of higher pressure. The winds between that low and the higher pressure will bring moisture into northern central and northern Israel, where there will be the possibility of tropical showers (and even some lightning). Fall may be off to an early start (and the rumor has it that the seasonal forecast models are predicting above normal rainfall amounts, a big difference from the years of predicting drought).

As the trough continues eastward and passes through our area the temperatures should cool from the low 30s into the upper 20s -- considerably cooler than today (Sunday).

That's good because I don't want to hear any complaints about the weather.

It wasn't a complaint, but an odd thing happened to my wife.  She was worried that her nighttime slumbers were being interrupted by a bit of snoring. I said I didn't think so, but she insisted on heading off to the doctor.  She told the doctor her worries, so he asked her if this were indeed true.  She told him that she was sleeping so that she couldn't verify the situation either way.  He thought this strange, and didn't really know how to proceed.  This made for a bit of a laugh but then she added that she was sure that the doctor found it even stranger that she hadn't come to "complain" that her husband was snoring and being -- generally -- a bother.

Afterwards, what struck me about her comment was an implied expectation that husbands or simply a bother to have around.

But, I must digress.

You may not believe this, but it's been verified through an unscientific poll.  What's the first place a wife takes her husband after the marriage and the excitement of the first weeks of marriage have passed?  She takes him to have his hearing checked.  Some men will say amongst themselves that they've lost their hearing because of their wives, but at the time of the appointment they're invariably told that their husband hears just fine.  The wife goes home muttering, and the husband goes home happy that his hearing is indeed fine.

Except it isn't.

The problem isn't hearing, the problem is listening. She goes home wondering how her husband is ever going to be useful if he doesn't hear her (instructions -- on how to be so).

You see, men marry because in their eyes they've found a beautiful "girl," or a smart girl, or a smart and beautiful girl, or a funny, smart, beautiful girl; regardless of the reason they've found the one.

Women marry, instead, because they have high hopes that their husband might be useful to have around.  True, there's a bit of starry eyed bliss, but deep down it comes down to what is called "Tachluss" (or purpose).

But what does she get: someone whose hearing is going and they've only been married a few months. Then she's faced with a dilemma: she has to weigh just how much her husband is useful versus how much he's a bother, and if he doesn't come out on the plus side there's going to be trouble.

Trouble usually comes, but if a husband is truly committed to honoring his wife (and marriage) he can follow some simple advice.   If you miss it the first time, try to get it right the second time, and don't justify why you got it wrong the first time. It won't help because wives live in the here and now, and don't want to hear (rational) excuses why husbands don't live up to expectations.  If you do this, you can move back to the plus side and your wife might actually tell her mother that she made the right choice.

Religious men sing to their wives every Friday evening: "An accomplished woman who can find? Far beyond pearls is her value."  A little listening on the part of a husband can go along way to deserving such a wife.

Shana Tova!

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Weather It Is (Summer Continues)

Good Afternoon:

I'm sitting near the window watching a light blue sky -- there are no clouds floating by.

It's that kind of weather -- actually, everyone here says it's been a relatively cool summer. But, since we had a relatively warm winter, there were no cherries and one could sit a long time under the apple tree without fear of injury (unlike last year, which was great for apples and cherries).

In contrast, Dr. Jame Hansen (formally head of NASA GISS), claims that regional climate change is appearing above the "noise" of climate-variability (http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034009).  You can see just how warm it's been worldwide by checking out this link (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/July2018.pdf). Interestingly, the maps show our area as being 1 -- 2 Celcius above the "norm" (defined as the mean temperatures between 1951 -- 1980).

I write interestingly because the guys who know (e.g, those who put in air conditioning system) say it ain't so, and they are not the only ones. I believe that the Israel Meteorological Service keeps track of temperatures compared to normal means, but I'll have to leave this double-check for a later time.

In any case, there is not much change forecast for our weather during the next week to 10 days.  One can see that it is still anomalously warm over Europe (follow the links here to 500 mb height anomalies: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/).  This affects us in an unusual way: storms are forced north of Europe, which then swing back down over Siberia. The resulting flow pattern sets up a high pressure area with westerly winds in the eastern Mediterranean or even pushes back a trough into our area -- keeping temperatures blowing refreshingly off the sea (rather then the desert to our east).

The mercury seems to be rising world-wide but the added energy from higher Carbon Dioxide gases has led to regional changes that include snowier east-coast winters (and now a humid and very rainy summer), but longer fire-seasons and extremely hot weather in the western US.  There is even a drought in Sweden, which is very unusual.  In England, a drought has withered the country side (but there is still plenty of water to drink: https://www.ft.com/content/a0dd8ba6-8044-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475). 

Some will claim that this is just "weather." They're right, but it may not be the weather they grew up with.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, August 2, 2018

Weather It Is (Wow, That's Strange!)

Good Evening:

This morning I thought seriously about turning on my windshield wipers.  It just seemed the thing to do as drops of rain fell from a cloudy sky.  But, I resisted the temptation even as I marvelled at the fall like cloudy sky in the beginning of August.

Weak low pressure in the middle atmosphere should combine with strong westerly flow aloft to bring us a continued chance of very light showers into early Shabbat.  However, the winds should switch to the southwest and temperatures should warm to uncomfortable levels (mid 30s) as we progress from early to mid-next-week.

The unusually cool weather of today (Thursday) and yesterday are courtesy of an unusually cold vortex over western Siberia.  This is the type of set-up that can contribute to bringing us unusually cold, and even snowy weather during our winter months.  This vortex should elongate and move northward during next week's hot weather, but could return early the week after.

Our kids have pointed out that there are some things one expects in Israel (besides missiles from Gaza) and that's hot, summer weather. Hence, they were surprised (and a bit annoyed) to arrive back in Israel after a visit to see the grandparents and find that the weather here today is the same as the weather we left in the Dolomites of Italy, where the elevation is closer to our Har Hermon than Gush Etzion.



Of course, that's nothing to complain about compared to the spider that ate my wife the week before last.

These strange happenings started in the evening when my wife went upstairs for an early bed-time.   Relaxing and supine while looking at weather maps in the living room, I heard a scream.  I came running upstairs (taking the stairs two at a time) to find a rather large spider in the bathroom.  The spider was looking at my wife and my wife was looking at the spider, and then the spider was looking at the both of us.  What the spider didn't know was that he (or she) looked larger to my wife than to me (https://www.livescience.com/53765-arachnophobes-perceive-spiders-as-bigger.html), so it was left to me to grab a towel and show the spider the door.

However, no sooner had I mentioned that the spider likely had (has) a spider-mate, did I hear another scream from the bathroom, and the same process repeated itself.

After picking up and moving the furniture, cleaning the bedroom with a vacuum and a candle to light the way,  we went to bed, but not before I remarked that I hoped that these spiders were the parents and not the children, otherwise I might not wake up next to my wife, but a spider.

I thought this pretty witty, but the crack of dawn revealed much less than a laughing matter.  My wife was gone! It was no joke after all -- a spider ate my wife!

Okay, that's seems farfetched.  What really happened is that she dreamed that a spider ate me and she'd fled from the room for the safety of the lower floors. She wasn't eaten, she was just fled.

At least our room is clean for Passover.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Weather It Is (Hotter and Cooler, Showers?)

Good Morning:

With all this talk about earthquakes, I suppose it only appropriate that the weather has been "acting" a bit unusual.  I'm not used to see fast moving clouds in summertime, or even to exclaim: "was that a drop of rain?"

Despite the recent cool weather, the mid-week period will turn quite hot, with Thursday being the hottest of the three, as high pressure builds eastward from Africa.  What we seem to be missing this summer is a very strong heat low over the desert to our east. Instead there is a anomalous area of cold air over west-central Russia (or north of Kazakstan).  This will help to create an atmospheric flow pattern that will allow for unusually cool summer air to drop down over the eastern Mediterranean at middle and lower levels of the atmosphere as we head into the Ninth of Av (fast).  The models are actually shown showers over northern and central areas as Shabbat moves into Sunday's fast.

Those who work in the field of atmospheric sciences are much more fortunate than those who study plate tectonics, and dream of some day predicting earthquakes.  Earthquakes are very hard to predict, even when they are happening! (See: https://www.popsci.com/earthquake-harder-to-predict-than-we-thought).  They are also very difficult to predict before they happen because the data required to do so is not complete and hard to get (earthquakes can start 30 km beneath the surface! See: http://theconversation.com/why-it-is-so-hard-to-predict-where-and-when-earthquakes-will-strike-40873).  There are other issues to contend with.  For instance, the equations that describe the ebb and flow of the atmosphere are well-known (although errors in initial data do lead to errors in the forecasts, as well as for other reasons).  Earthquakes can happen when one plate moves below another or to the side.  The action occurs suddenly, which is equivalent to a "Step-Function" in mathematics that is simple to write, but hard to formulate  (like when a bridge or dam suddenly collapses due to a build up of pressure or weakening of the supports).

Others have more obvious predictors.  Shall we blame the strange weather on the plan to possibly build a mixed prayer pavilion at the Western (Kotel) Wall? Or, shall we only blame the recent bout of earthquakes (see:https://www.timesofisrael.com/ultra-orthodox-mk-suggests-earthquake-was-due-to-western-wall-mixed-prayer-area/) on such plans?

Perhaps there is a more obvious reason.  My "Me Am Lo Ez" Torah Anthology (Exodus-II Redemption; translated by Rabbi Aryeh Kaplan) notes that one of the reasons the Jewish people were redeemed from Egypt was because they didn't speak LaShon Hara (gossip or say bad things about others).  But, here we have the Knesset lawmaker blaming the Reform movement for Earthquakes.  Then we had a "Kashrut" authority revoke Barkan Wines certificate for employing Ethiopians.  The Eda Haredit claims that there is not enough proof that Ethiopians who immigrated to Israel are actually Jewish (so they are not allowed to touch the wine while it is being prepared).

Widespread questioning of someone else's Jewishness or the Jewishness of Converts is strictly forbidden in the Book of Jewish Law (the Torah).  Yet, here we have a group claiming to be a "congregation of God-fearing" people engaging in actions anathema to proper Jewish Observance.

In my opinion, the best way to demonstrate your goodness as a person is to be kind to others.  Striving for that extra strictness based on the most extreme measure of Jewish law is actually based on selfishness (hoping for extra "brownie-points"), and not charitableness (among which giving money to those is needs is also an important responsibility).

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, July 4, 2018

Weather It Is (Hmm Weather)

Good Afternoon:

It's the kind of summer weather that makes you want to say "hmm."  It's not super hot, but it's not exactly pleasant either.  In fact, the northwest flow has brought some broken clouds in off the sea.

The hot, sultry weather is courteous of strong high pressure over Africa combining with low pressure over Syria.  Both systems are fairly stationary, and the results is the northwest flow.  But because the air originates in both Africa and the desert areas to our northeast, we just end up hot and a bit on the humid side.

Without much to look at in the sky, I have taken to noticing what's going around me at eye-level.  The other day there was a long line of cars passing through the open lane of the check-point on the way to Gush Etzion.  I was in that line when I noticed a person speed down the adjacent lane, headed towards the unopen gate at the check-point.  I wondered what this person thinks about before making his move. Considering that this person could not have seen whether the lane was open before he took the plunge, he really made a bold move.   For instance, if the rest of us are dumb, he'd sail right through past everyone else.  But, if the lane is closed, he'd have to go back to the end of the line -- right?  No,  he just cuts in and goes ahead of everyone else.

What about the person that goes around the speed bump, crossing the yellow line, just so he (or she) doesn't have to slow down.  Does that person think: "I bet I can outsmart that speed bump," or is it: "they're not going to make me slow down, even if I have to break the law."

In The Times of Israel, there is an article entitled: "Will the West Cede the Golan to a Psychopath?" (https://www.timesofisrael.com/will-the-west-cede-the-golan-heights-to-a-psychopath/) The authors mean: to Bashar Assad. When the editor wrote the headline did they try to convey how illogical that would be or did they purposely try to convey that Israel does not own the Golan?  After all, if the Golan is part of Israel then how can other nations turn it over to Mr. Assad?

The Israeli Knesset passed a law deducting Palestinian payments to murderers in Israeli jails from tax obligations (https://www.timesofisrael.com/knesset-passes-law-freezing-pa-funding-over-terror-payouts/).  Supposedly, the law sends a message to the Palestinian that terror doesn't pay. The Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas instead called prisoners in Israel jails "Political Prisoners" -- not terrorists -- and "victims of the 'Occupation.'" Ironically, he went on to say that the same prisoners are not the "creators of the occupation."  It's a great line, but does he really believe it?  Until the war in 2000, Israel had vacated Area A (under the Oslo Accords), and offered most of the area  west of the Jordan River and east of the old "Green Line" (Armistice Line)  (and Gaza) to the Palestinians for their own state, including parts of Jerusalem.  So, who is the creator of the "Occupation?" It's the Palestinians -- no Israel will in his or her right mind cede land to a people that pays its citizens to murder others.


Barry Lynn

Monday, June 25, 2018

Weather It Is (Summer Hero)

Good Evening:

Summer sure seems to have arrived -- as kids seem out and about at all hours now.

However, the weather has not been particularly hot, and when it is hot it doesn't stay hot for more than a day or so.

In fact, high pressure over Africa will nose quickly north and eastward and Wednesday will indeed turn hot with temperatures in the mid-30s.   Yet, the high pressure area will quickly move eastward, and cooler temperatures should return for the end of the week.

Looking further ahead, the anomalously cold weather over western Siberia should dissipate and summer should arrive both on the weather maps and on our thermometers as July rolls into its first week.

It's always important to look ahead or around.  You never know who might be shooting at you (https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinians-open-fire-on-settlement-south-of-jerusalem-idf/).  Fortunately, no one was hurt.

A more serious incident appeared to unfold in the Rami-Levy parking lot last Thursday morning.  An unidentified man was seen running through the parking lot.

Since I was that unidentified man, I can tell you what happened. The store has a whole new line of sleeker and aerodynamic grocery carts. Apparently, one of them escaped its owner and was rolling down the relatively flat, but still downhill parking lot.  Seeing this, I gave chase. Fortunately, I had done my stretching and warmup exercises that morning so I was able to catch the cart before it crashed front first into a parked car on the other side of the lot.

At first an alarm sounded, but then strangely the speakers started playing the theme song from the "Six Million Dollar Man" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmgRqWMeRww).  I couldn't stop laughing as I accepted the congratulations from passerby.

In the meantime, my daughter had her picture taken with Rami Levy, the founder and owner of the supermarket chain that bears his name.

What I didn't mention is that I had to wait several minutes for the crowd to thin out so I could continue unloading my grocery carts, including the one that ran away.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Weather It Is (Where Did That Come From?)

Good Evening:

Sixty four millimetres of rain this Wednesday morning in the western Negev! And, as if they needed another "natural" disaster, the city of Sederot was severely flooded, with cars floating through the streets (https://www.timesofisrael.com/floods-inundate-southern-towns-as-freak-rains-batter-country/).  The picture below shows a radar facsimile derived from our radar network Wednesday morning. This storm lingered for almost an hour in nearly the same location! There was also a quick, but heavy rain in Jerusalem today that caused a quick ponding of water on roads or what we might call old-fashioned puddles.

So, what's going on?  By this time of year the weather in the eastern Mediterranean is usually under the influence of the Indian Monsoon.  Winds circulating around the Monsoon warm the air in the middle atmosphere, which prevents clouds from growing high enough to bring summer rains.
However, this year there is an area of lower pressure in western Siberia, which appears to be preventing the Monsoon from reaching here.  Moreover, the Monsoon itself seems to have had a delayed strengthening (https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/national/monsoon-lags-over-east-india-may-weaken-further/article24127521.ece).  The lack of the Monsoon air combined with weak storms arriving from southern Europe means that the air remains unstable to cloud formation, while the relatively warm Mediterranean sea provides plenty of moisture to these growing storms.

The Times of Israel article notes that the last time it rained so much in the Negev was 26 years ago, when there was 50 millimetres.  This would have been 1992, which I believe followed the severe winter of 1991-92.

Looking ahead at our forecast, there appears to be a quick warm-up in time for Shabbat as high pressure builds eastward Africal.  Yet, the forecast shows relatively cool temperatures prior to and to following the warm-up. Amazingly enough, there may be more rain in about a week's time as another storm moves by (possibly just our our north).  Will the rainy weather continue even beyond next week?  The note on the Indian Monsoon doesn't forecast appreciable strengthening in the Monsoon for at least a couple of weeks.

Regardless, I tend to lean towards something more going on than just changes to the Indian Monsoon. I remember years when it rained (once) somewhere in the country during the month of May, and even August, but this year we've had consistent periods where rain has affected more than just a single localized area.

One positive outcome of all this strange weather is that the weatherman (or woman) has remained immensely popular -- at a time when most people are usually at the beach sipping watermelon juice or just staying home complaining about the heat.   I can't go anywhere without people stopping me to comment on the weather.  I've even been solicited for TV (internet) interviews.  All I can say that its fortunate that I've been extra busy, and even my kids are taking an extra moment to speak with me, and wonder "what's going on with our weather!?"

Barry Lynn




Thursday, June 7, 2018

Weather It Is (Hot And Dusty)

Good Afternoon:

After several days of hot and muggy weather and some heavy (but isolated) thundershowers, the weather turned a bit cooler and drier.  However, it's back to summer.

Low pressure will move by to our east today (Thursday).  It's responsible for the hotter temperatures and heavy dust, as well as some high level overcast.  The storm will pass by, but be replaced with high pressure entering from the west.  This high pressure area will be originating in Africa.  Hence, it will also bring hot summer temperatures, and some dust as well.

The hot weather should last into mid next week when some moisture arriving with a storm from the north might again bring some showers.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, May 31, 2018

Weather It Is (Weird Weather)

Good Afternoon:

Sometimes the weather is weird, but not often is it weirder than now.

After a series of relatively hot days with unusually high humidity and some tropical showers, the weather maps are looking very much like winter.  A storm will drop down from the northwest and bring rain heavy showers to the north, possibly moderate showers to the center, and lighter showers over southern areas.  The circulation pattern associated with this storm is not a Sharav, but rather that associated with a Mediterranean cyclone (or Cyprus low) -- or wintertime low.

The storm will arrive in two parts, with the first part affecting our area Friday afternoon into Shabbat afternoon, and the next sometime Sunday into early Monday.

To be honest with you, I'm skeptical that it will rain very much.  After all, if we look back in history it will be hard to find many (or even a few) rainy days in very late May or even June. On the other hand, we don't get too many "winter" storms at this time of year, and the sea temperatures are warm enough to provide a good source of moisture for any convective storms that might develop as the storm moves through.

I am sure that you've all been following the news lately -- as the skies rained mortars and missiles, rather than raindrops along the southern coastal areas.

While the weather is strange, I found nothing quite as strange as the quotes from an article in the TOI (https://www.timesofisrael.com/three-soldiers-wounded-by-shrapnel-as-south-buffeted-by-gazan-fusillade/)

A Hamas spokesperson earlier declared that “Israel will fail in the attempt to change the rules of the conflict and set a new equation on the ground.”
and:
“The resistance in the Gaza Strip reserves its right to react or remain silent in accordance with the interest of our people,” he said.
Here's the equation:  Hamas is building an army.  An army requires resources, which we provide in the hopes that it will be used to ameliorate the hardships of the citizens of Gaza (Hamastan).  However, the resistance has defined the interests of its people to destroy Israel, which means that none of these materials reach them.
In the meantime, we hope to "manage" the situation until either we are forced to utterly destroy Hamas or the people do it themselves.  However, Hamas is very good at allocating just enough resources that (combined with military rule) prevents any action by the citizens of Gaza to overthrow its rulers.
And we go along with it.
I'd rather stick to talking and thinking about the weather.
Barry Lynn




Monday, May 28, 2018

Weather It Is (Severe Storms Threat Eilat)


Severe storms threaten Eilat.  While not shown on the IMS radar, our lightning network shows severe storms moving towards Eilat, expected to arrive during the morning hours.

Thursday, May 24, 2018

Weather It Is (New York Summer, Anyone?)

Good Evening:

One wouldn't be wrong if one starts to feel like we're living through a "New York Summer."  True, the last days of this week have been pleasantly warm during the day and cool at night, but this is going to change.

The reason is a broad area of low pressure that will build across the Mediterranean as the next week unfolds.  With the building low pressure will come moisture at the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, with moderate humidity levels at lower levels -- as well as dust.  The combination could trigger some late spring thundershowers and or thunderstorms, which could include copious amounts of lightning and hail, as well as a quick accumulation of rain.

The unpleasantly hot weather, combined with unusual humidity levels for areas unaccustomed to summer humidity (like the central mountain areas) will remind at least some of a New York Summer.

Since the last large Gaza demonstration, the political heat has also been building up. It seems that those that should know don't know what's been really going on, but considering the plethora of news reporting one thinks that there are those that do know, but have cynically sought to exploit our troubles for their political gain.

Basically, if you don't know: the government of Gaza (run by the political party Hamas) has been paying its citizens to storm the border fence between Israeli and Gaza for the purposes of breaching the fence -- with the goal of slaughtering those (Israelis) on the other side.  And, if that didn't work, they figured that the media and those politicians mentioned above would take action to make it more difficult for Israel to defend its citizens from both political and military attacks.

There is one thing that struck me, though, concerning the idea of "proportionality," as noted by (not only  by himself) the "United Nations High Commissioner For Human Rights" Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein.
(https://www.timesofisrael.com/un-rights-chief-israels-gaza-response-wholly-disproportionate/)
Mr. Al Hussein complained that while 60 Gazan's were killed, only one Israeli soldier was injured.  Not withstanding the fact that Israel is not an "occupying" power (of Gaza -- as  heclaimed), I must say that Mr. Al Hussein really knows his math (-- or does he?).

Two numbers are said to be in proportion (https://www.mathsisfun.com/definitions/proportional.html) to each other when they have the same ratio.  For example, if a bucket holding 10 kilograms of oranges weighs 1 kilogram, then a bucket holding 20 kilograms must way 2 kilograms.

Or, if you like:  the weight of the basket equals 0.1 times the weight of the oranges, where the value of 0.1 is a constant (a value that is valid over an infinitely number of similar examples).

Getting back to Mr. Al Hussein's example above: some number (call it "y") must equal to a constant times the number of Palestinians killed.  The number y of course is the number of Israelis that should have been killed at the border fence.  Now, of course, any number of Israeli dead would mean that the number was proportional, so long as we could count up the number dead on each side during a variety of skirmishes, and we were to find that the "constant" was indeed constant from one violent exchange to another.

The problem for Mr. Al. Hussein is that no Israelis were killed.  Therefore, there is no proportionality at  all, and this really bothers him.  This bothers him because he'd like to see a lot of dead Israelis (the value of the constant should be much greater than one), otherwise he wouldn't lie about other aspects of the conflict.

Here's my suggestion.  I think that the Israeli army should decide to respond proportionally to these attacks.  They will count the number of kites flown over the border and send a proportionate number back (maybe the constant will be 10, so Israeli will send ten times as many burning kites back).  Israel will count the number of rocks and Molitov cocktails thrown, but in this case the constant will be 100 times the number sent by the Palestinians.  After all, why should Israelis suffer more than the Palestinians when the Palestinians are the attacking side. Finally, we'll fire only the number of bullets fired at us (the constant is 1) because it seems unfair to some that the Israel army should have more bullets than the Palestinians.

I am not sure how many tunnels we should build into Gaza or how many missiles we should fire, but we will be sure to do the math.

One last thing: the ratio of Palestinians killed to Israelis killed at the Gaza border is "Infinity."  This is a number larger than any known number -- it actually has no definable value. It is actually much larger than the number of stars in the sky (http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-resources/how-many-stars-are-there/) divided by the number of people on earth.  While I wish that the Palestinians will use their rocks to build roads, their gasoline to drive cars, and their brass (bullets) to make industrial machines, I have no problem with the number of Israeli deaths being zero -- as it is impossible to define the infinite grief of a parent who loses a child to Palestinian hate.

Barry Lynn