Weather It Is (Rain with Some Ice)

 Good morning:

Over the last few days, the forecasts have trended colder as a trough of low pressure develops over the eastern Mediterranean.  This trough will bring moderate to heavy rain this Friday morning to coastal areas and the mountains of the Galilee and of Jerusalem.

As typical for our area, we are right on the edge relative to liquid or frozen precipitation, but temperatures will be too warm in the middle atmosphere for snow.  However, cold temperatures at the surface and cold temperature aloft will probably support ice pellets from time to time.  This can make for slippery driving conditions in the higher mountainous areas. Cold temperatures and showers will persist into Shabbat.

Rain returns mid next week.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Stormy Weather On The Way)

 Good Morning:

It may only be Monday, but our next storm is showing up on our weather forecast maps.  It should be punctuated by unusually cold weather, heavy rain, and strong winds.  There is also a chance that the storm will move far enough southward to bring back a period of snow or ice in the central mountain areas. The storm and the cold air associated with it should arrive Thursday and last into Sunday;

For a while, forecasts were very hopeful that the trough of cold air would drift far enough south to provide enough cold to bring us a period of snow.  However, yesterday, the same forecasts now show a storm moving south of Scandinavia just prior to the arrival of our trough of low pressure. This would flatten the ridge over western Europe, and modify our wind flow such that the coldest air would remain to our north.  This is the likely scenario, and it would mean just rain and hail, even with cold temperatures. The most likely chance for a period of snow or ice is late Thursday night into Friday morning.  But, it is even more likely to just be a cold rain.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Break Before the Next Storm)

Did you believe it was going to snow?

The days prior to our last (and first) winter storm were days of soul-searching.  How not to let hope outweigh sound reasoning?  There were certain markers in the global ensemble forecasts that suggested we would see snow or ice, but others that indicated it would be too warm to stick around (i.e., accumulate).  My wife told me that if the guy in Har Gilo doesn't say anything, then it's not going to snow.  So, what's the point of listening to me? 

All of this is made more difficult because of global warming.  The warmer the atmosphere, the more it expands towards space.  This means that historical markers like the temperature at various levels in the atmosphere have less meaning now, and we need to look at just how close the freezing air is to the surface.

All this makes forecasting an accumulating snow more difficult.  While I have had my successes and failures, or at least one failure, one thing I've learned is to wait for the results from our high or even highest resolution forecasts.  These forecasts incorporate the most up to date physical packages representing the heating of the earth by the sun, the transfer of heat and moisture into the atmosphere, how this heating creates winds, the movement of heat and moisture from place to place, and the storms and clouds that are created in their place.  These forecasts told me that we would soon experience the weather we had: a good deal of rain, strong winds, and some ice and snow in the higher elevations of Gush Etzion (not Jerusalem), and the Hebron mountains.  We'll probably repeat this process at the end of the month, when our next storm is expected.

With all this complexity, it's very easy to get lost in the details, and let our beliefs or even hopes influence both what we (as forecasters) tell others, or what we believe will be the outcome. 

One example: those who want to believe that the whole Coronavirus "thing" is just a hoax, or a conspiracy to control our lives.  If you're one of those,  then you'll be very susceptible to manipulation of facts, or even a single fact.

For instance, someone rightly pointed out that the number of people diagnosed with the Flu is down, and that comparatively few people are dying from the Flu.  In fact, one recent CDC report listed almost all deaths in one week as being from the Coronavirus, rather than the Flu.  This could be for a number of reasons: social distancing and mask wearing is helping to prevent the spread of the Flu,  people are dying of the Coronavirus instead of the Flu, or there could be a country or even worldwide conspiracy to make the Coronavirus seem worse than it is, in order to control our minds (and hence our actions).

If the conspiracy theory is correct, then we should return to our normal lives, go about our business without fear, and fight back against those whose only goal in life is to make our lives miserable enough that we'll accept anything they tell us to do -- even give our wealth over to a socialist paradise.

So, let's accept this viewpoint that the Coronavirus "scare" is really just a "bad Flu" or even just the Flu, but look at the implications of it.  

The US CDC estimates that the year 2018-19 had about 35 million Flu infections (US only), and about 34,000 deaths, or a mortality rate of 0.09%.  If this were a typical year, we would expect similar numbers of sick and mortality rate.  Yet, the CDC Coronavirus tracker now estimates that there are about 24 million cases in the United States, and 400,000 deaths.  This is a mortality rate of 1.66%!  This means that this mysterious Flu is 18 times more lethal than the typical Flu.  This puts the lie to the idea that nothing unusual is going on.

The Spanish Flu is estimated to have killed 675,000 Americans.  Then, the population was about 1/3 what it is now, meaning that in today's numbers that would be about 1.9 million Americans dead.  So far, the Coronavirus or unknown Flu (they say) has infected about 7% of the population.  The Spanish Flu is estimated to have infected more than 25% of the population, so an extrapolation suggests that our current pandemic is as deadly as the Spanish Flu.

Fortunately, there is a vaccine for the Coronavirus.  Here in Israel, we're way ahead of the world in distributing the vaccine.  We're also fortunate that our population is on average younger than in other countries, e.g., the United States has an average age of about 38 years, while our average age is about 30. This could explain why our mortality rate is lower than in the United States (about 0.7%). 

This all sounds pretty scary, and yet there are people who prefer to risk the things they know of then take a risk on something that they know nothing about.  For example, there are those who believe it is a greater risk to get the Coronavirus vaccine than being infected by the disease instead.  You can tell them that the vaccine has been tested and shown to be safe.  But, then they ask, but what are the risks way down the line -- even though we see very severe, continuing long term risks from the Coronavirus. This just shows that the beliefs of a certain segment of population are quite resistant to facts, regardless of the danger to their health.

One very important, and perhaps overriding risk is a reason to vaccinate as many people as possible and as quickly as possible.  This is the possibility that the virus could mutate not just to make it more contagious, but more deadly.  The virus could mutate to start killing (rather than maiming) younger people.  This is what happened with the Spanish Flu -- a mutation made it much more deadly in the second wave.

Of course, one further argument against the conspiracists: it's been reported that infections are much reduced in those who were vaccinated versus those who remain  unvaccinated, and they are being vaccinated against the Coronavirus, not the Flu. 

So, don't wait, go out and be vaccinated.  Protect yourself, your family, and your fellow citizens.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Stormy Night and Day)

Good Afternoon:

The models continued to move towards a colder "solution" to the upcoming weather event. Yet, the forecasts show just a mixture of rain and ice, with some snow in the highest elevations.

Hence, this storm -- a fast mover -- should not bring us an accumulating snow.

The end of the month will bring another storm and another chance.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Rain and then Rain or Snow)

 Good Evening:

1) Heavy and thunderstorms tonight (Monday night) into Tuesday.

2) Heavy rain over coastal areas, but snow possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday in the higher elevations of the central mountains.  Snow is also possible in the northern mountains of the Galilee and Golan.

While folks have been out and about on their business today, we've been taking care of our business in the "Israel Winter Weather" group (of three).   We're all three in agreement that the wind trajectory will be ideal for snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday, as winds blow from the northwest ahead of our upcoming midweek storm. We're all in agreement that temperatures should approach freezing and that the mountainous terrain should encourage precipitation to form as the coldest air moves in late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  

Our developing storm is also well-synchronized at the lower and upper levels to enhance precipitation rates as the coldest air moves in towards morning.  In the past, we've seen some cold air at lower levels arrive after the main forcing at upper levels had already departed.

As for snow amounts, we can only guess now, but prefer not to. We'll wait until Tuesday morning to run a very high resolution forecast.  Snow will be more likely to accumulate in Gush Etzion than in Jerusalem, but we're not ruling out snow accumulation in both places.  However, we're not ruling it in as well, as we need to see tomorrow's update, which will tell us more about the low level cold. 

In any case, this storm is a relatively fast mover, so the potential snow won't last into the evening hours.

We should see snow, but will it be something to throw around or hinder travel?  We just don't know, yet.

The end of the month should see a return to winter again.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Stormy if not Snowy Weather)

Good Morning:

This morning I woke my wife up with "get up! It's a beautiful day!"  Of course, it was not a "traditional" beautiful day, but a wintery and grey day -- a portend?  The good news is that after some grumbling she was incredibly efficient, cleaning here and there, getting a head start of the Shabbat cooking, and even making me some vegetarian "ham"-burgers.  These are made from something that actually looks like ground beef you buy from the butcher, but there was no butchering done at all -- just some creative manipulation of what one might call plant material.

Moving onto the weather, we've had the good fortune to move from an extended period of dry weather to at least a period of wet weather.  Another storm will move in from the west on Monday, and it should be followed by our third storm within a week's time on Wednesday/Thursday.

The global forecasts have been indicating for some time that there will be an extended cold period from the 18th (Monday) through Thursday (the 21st)  next week, with the greatest likelihood of cold weather to arrive Wednesday and Thursday.  More recent forecasts indicate a greater possibility of snow in the higher elevations of the central and northern mountains.   The cold air would arrive from the direction of Siberia as another storm moves southeastward on Wednesday.

Motzei Shabbat will give us a better indication of what type of weather will be in the air next week.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

 

Weather It Is (Winter Arrives)

 Good Afternoon:

Gale force winds expected Thursday.  Heavy rains and flooding are also possible. 

We've upgraded our weather forecast system, so there may be some subtle, but important improvements in the forecast. 

Last Monday we spoke about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming that was forecast to shake up our weather pattern.  Based on analog analysis of past years, it was thought that it would lead to a strengthening North Atlantic Oscillation, leaving us in a continuing dry pattern.  It was also noted that the sudden warming could lead to a temporary cold spell.  Alas, the weather had other ideas. 

The North Atlantic Oscillation has not been as negative or as strong as forecast, and it has created an opportunity for us to transition to a much rainier and wetter pattern. This pattern will position a ridge of high pressure east of Greenland, allowing a trough to build over eastern Europe, tapping into some very cold air over Siberia. 

As we move into the second half of this week, our early "spring" weather will come to an end, and winds will become near gale, or even gale (> 62 km/h).  As noted in our Israel Winter Weather  Forum, the rainy pattern should last at least several days, if not into the last week of January.

There is a small chance of snow about 10 days from now; otherwise, snow should periodically fall on the Golan.

As an aside: those who deny that climate change is occurring because of the release of greenhouse gases do admit that the world is warming.  However, they claim that this is a good thing, suggesting that a warmer world will open up additional locations for agriculture, for example.  However, this minimizes the potential disruption to current farming practices, as well as opening the door for pests/fungi to establish themselves in otherwise temperate climates.  At least this is the story the Mosquito told me before I whacked my first January mosquito ever. It hasn't been fun catching flies, and I am still waiting for the tree outside our front to actually lose its leaves.  It and many of us are a bit confused -- and hoping that winter arrives this Wednesday night and Thursday.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Change Will Come)

 

Good afternoon:

People ask me if it will ever rain again.  When I say not yet, they look at me like they want to shoot the messenger. However, as explained here (https://www.phrases.org.uk/bulletin_board/3/messages/520.html), it's really not "fair" to blame the person who simply delivers the message.  Also, keep in mind that the weather has been really nice -- for playing tennis, going for a run, having a picnic in the park, etc.  

So, what's the problem?  The problem is that people really do blame me for the too nice weather.  Perhaps they see our forecasts, and when they "come true" they think it's because of the forecast instead of tomorrow's weather itself simply becoming today's weather. 

So, what is going on?  One problem is that the North Atlantic Oscillation is now negative (https://www.britannica.com/science/North-Atlantic-Oscillation), which implies that there is a strong ridge-low couplet over Greenland and the far eastern Atlantic ocean.  This leaves us on the warm side of the ridge. 

However, there is also a forecast for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event ( https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/sudden-stratospheric-warming).  The warming leads to changes in the circulation pattern (especially in the Atlantic ocean).  When it interacts with the NAO, there can also be far off ripples in the circulation pattern.  Moreover, it can lock in the NAO.  

As suggested on forecasts for the mid-month period, though, the position of the trough over the Atlantic may be placed further west than a typical NAO.  Additionally, analog analysis (comparing the circulation pattern now to those of past years) suggest that atmospheric ripples associated with the SSW could lead to unusually cold weather in the eastern Mediterranean, at least long enough to make winter felt.  

So, expect a drop off in temperatures in mid-month, accompanied by a period of rain, if not rain and snow. 

I'd like to add a few comments about the "situation." Someone sent me an article proclaiming that the "cure' for the Coronavirus is worse than disease itself (https://www.climatedepot.com/2020/12/21/follow-the-science-covid-lockdowns-kill-suicides-exceed-covid-deaths-drug-overdoses-spike-delayed-surgeries-delayed-cancer-heart-treatments-more-death/).  While it is correct to say that the lockdown has impacted social health, it is incorrect to blame the lockdown on hospital delays for other illnesses.  Rather, the delays are part of treatment plan for the illness (there are only so many doctors and beds to go around), just as there have been an increase in deaths from secondary illnesses exacerbated by the Coronavirus-19 illness.  Lastly, were we to continue "business as usual," would there be 85 million ill and almost 2 million dead, or would there more likely be 1 billion ill and 20 million dead (about half those of the Spanish Flu)?

It is valid to ask about indirect deaths due to the Coronavirus, but incorrect to compare the consequences to actual direct deaths, since the indirect deaths are a result of society's efforts to prevent an even greater calamity.  The article waves a flag, but doesn't let you think long enough and critically enough to see that it's really a smokescreen for radical thinking.

I need to end with one more comment:  there are those who are rightfully fearful about a new vaccine technology (mRNA vaccines), but this is the reason the vaccines were tested in stages (to ensure they work, but are also safe).  But, then there a group of people who say that since the vaccine is based on new technology that it shouldn't be used -- or at least wait to see how your friends fare).  (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different-vaccines/how-they-work.html#:~:text=mRNA%20vaccines%20contain%20material%20from,genetic%20material%20from%20the%20vaccine).  Basically, the technology works the same way a virus works, and hence therefore must be dangerous. 

However, this line of reasoning ignores two relevant facts that favor getting vaccinated as soon as possible: 1) the vaccine works like a virus to infect cells, but only to produce a harmless protein that mimics the virus, but is not the virus itself (giving our immune system time to prepare for an actual attemp by the virus to infect us);  2) the virus, which infects our cells the same way as the vaccine does, is actually the virus, and we know just how terrible this is (https://www.timesofisrael.com/875084-i-let-my-guard-down-and-got-covid-19-this-is-what-its-like/).

So, be careful and get vaccinated!

Barry Lynn