Weather It Is (Winter Weather)

  Good Afternoon:

A storm will be moving in from the west, and will linger for a few days.  

Temperatures with this storm are very cold aloft, and near freezing in the lower atmosphere (850 mb level).  Yet, at the surface we're about 1 degree Celsius too warm for seeing any snow with this storm in the central mountain region. Instead, there should be plenty of heavy rain on Monday with ice-pellets.  Ice pellets may fall heavily enough at times to make the roads a bit slippery.  But, temperatures above freezing means that the ice will melt quickly.  Winds will be unusually strong, consistent with a moderate or "near gale."  Snow is likely on the Hermon and higher peaks of the Golan.

It looks like that there will be two periods of heavy rain. One tomorrow afternoon and then late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  Our high resolution WRF forecast is predicting generally 25 to 50 mm of rain from south central to northern Israel, with localized amounts of greater than 100 mm. Right now, the heaviest rain is forecast for the central areas, including Jerusalem.

The NAO is switching to a negative value, and this looks like this will hold until the end of the month, before a general return to positive values in January.  So, after this upcoming storm, we may be taking a week or two week break from any unusually cold weather.

Batten down you hatches or at least move items that can blow away to protected places,

Sincerely,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Big Changes on the Way)

 Good Evening:

Our very pleasant late fall weather will soon become fall-past. Instead, winter will arrive with alacrity. While today many folk were out and about without jackets, that will not be the case as we move into Tuesday and even during the next two weeks. In fact, there is a twenty percent chance of snow -- based on the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast Model (GEFS) -- sometime mid next week.  Moreover, forecasts 3 to 5 weeks out show the winter-like weather continuing.

So, what's changed?  Well, I've been under a lot of pressure about the continuing nice weather.  While people I speak to appreciate my efforts (they're having weddings, Bar Mitzvahs, or even just taking a walk outside), the nice weather just doesn't "sit right" with them.  Also, to be honest with you, it really bothers my wife, who finds herself both adding clothes and shedding clothes all within just a few hours time. Mornings are chilly, but afternoons not, and what is someone supposed to do -- bring a suitcase to work?  I mean, does one have to wear boots in the morning, but change to sandals in the afternoon?  Quite frankly, I'm not bothered at all, but the fact that my wife is bothered does bother me, if not just for the fact that she expects me to do something about it.

So, I am. 

Pulling in all of my contacts, favors, and contacting as many friends I can find, we're arranging for La Nina to be the dominant phase of the El-Nino/La-Nina oscillation (cold versus warm eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures).  For us, this means that we're more likely that the North Atlantic Oscillation will be in its positive phase   This means that an "Omega" block should persist over an extended period of time, exemplified by relatively higher pressure over Greenland and lower pressure over southern Europe and the eastern Mediterranean.  For us, this suggests a turn to colder and wetter weather.  If conditions are just right, we'll see snow here late next week in the Jerusalem mountains.  Back in December 2013, they were exceptionally "right."  But, keep in mind that when we're in a wet pattern (like we're discussing), it's usually for just rain. 

Have a good week,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Summer Ends...)

 Good Afternoon:

Our summer-like weather (or is it the new "Fall?") should end late Tuesday. Wednesday will usher in much colder air, especially at lower levels. The 500 mb ("upper") level shows only low humidity, so we should expect showery weather to accompany the cold air intrusion. Keep in mind that a dry upper level leads to evaporative cooling, which may destabilize the atmosphere. Combined with the warm sea, there could be some thunderstorms as well. Temperatures should remain cool over the remainder of Chanukah. The global ensemble forecast shows a small chance for snow in the middle of December.

Sincerely, Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Storm Arriving)

 Shavua Tov:

A storm moving south to north will pass us by tonight and tomorrow.  The moisture with this storm is constrained to the middle and upper atmosphere, and rainfall should be light, at most.  Dust levels and haze should lower as we move into Monday.

The winds will slowly shift to the west as the week progresses, and then to the northwest, as cold air moves in on a moisture stream.  A very significant storm is being forecast by the global ensemble models for Shabbat and the beginning of next week, which means that there should be plenty of atmospheric lift to produce heavy precipitation. 

The generally cool or even cold temperatures are likely, but not certain, to continue to the last week of the month.

Chodesh Tov!

Weather It Is (Bad Interview)

 Good Afternoon:

The weather is certainly nice -- thanks to a ridge of high pressure that will settle over our area.  While there could be some clouds and even showers early next week, the weather will be on the mild side as the coming week moves from beginning to end. 

Early the following week (or the second week of November), there is a 50% chance that the weather will turn sharply colder.  Even so, no major rain storms are yet indicated.

In this interview, Dr. Harvey Hirsch and his interviewer (Mr. Avi Abelow) make a number of misleading statements, either directly or indirectly. While I didn't listen to all of the interviews, I did researched the claims I heard.  Here is my rebuttal.

First, the conversation implies that it is better to rely on early treatment rather than the vaccine. However, Dr. Hirsch admits that the treatment is 75% effective.  The implication is that a 25% death rate is acceptable, in lieu of the vaccine.  There is a claim that the vaccine is dangerous, experimental -- even though it has been officially approved by the FDA.  Moreover, considering the number of people who have received the vaccine, one should ask: where are all the injured, maimed, and dead?  They should be overflowing our hospitals, but they are not.  In fact, vaccinated people are less likely to die of any cause. 

Regarding treatments.  There are studies that claim a reduction in hospital stays and deaths when Ivermectin is used. Here, the results were uncertain.

The FDA claims, we're told, that Ivermectin is for horses. In fact, the FDA claimed that there are different forms of the medicine and that the form for animals could be very detrimental to human health.

Regarding Hydroxychloroquine, it was not found to be effective.

A recent study suggests that an antidepressant effectively reduces hospitalization.

Dr. Risch notes that these medicines should be given early to be effective.  However. coronaviruses have evolved to evade immune responses. This means that the virus can proliferate in the body before there is any reason to suspect one is sick (rendering early treatment inapplicable). 

The interviewer and interviewee claim that doctors and hospitals are not allowed to give inexpensive medicines because the hospitals make more money from expensive medicines.  We are told of a brave few (hundreds, thousands?) who are rebelling against the tyranny of the system.  However, hospital stays cost the hospitals and insurance companies money.  Oh, but this is less expensive than end of life care.  One can only add so many absurdities. 

Another claim is that the death rate is just 1%.  In fact, the death rate in the US is 2%.  Moreover, the deathrate varies by age. For those over age 50, my previous blog showed that it ranges from about 2 to 20% (rising with age). Hence, to suggest that the virus is not dangerous is misleading.  It's also misleading because typical flu mortality rates are just 1/4 of that.

Last, the claim is made that big pharmaceutical companies control government policy, and this is the reason that governments around the world are "scaring" people into being vaccinated.  When I asked for evidence, none was provided.  Also, when one accepts a conspiracy theory, one needs to ask yourself, would the governments of the United States, Europe, England, Canada, Australia all be under the influence of the Cabal of pharmaceutical companies.  Yet, only one company, Pfizer, has been most widely used within. Are the others hoping for a slice of the pie?  I know that lobbyists can influence policies, but there are many and they compete against each other.  Might it be more believable if I told you that Spectre is the Cabal really controlling our lives?

I do not claim to refute all claims within, but these struck me as the most grievous. 

Be well,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Don't Mislead)

 Good Morning:

Much cooler air is moving in to our area today.  There will be some clouds and sprinkles.  However, heavy rain is not expected, even though temperatures will be the coolest of the season. 

The cool weather should remain with us for about a week's time.  The Global Ensemble Forecast System's predictions for the last week in October suggest that seasonal weather with a chance of showers will be on tap for us.  However, there is also about a 25% chance we'll end on a much warmer note.

Otherwise...

Where Numbers Lie

 The Israeli People`s Committee website and reports give the appearance of authority. They’ve composed the Report of Adverse Events Related to the Corona Vaccine, May 2021 and conclude that: “Never has a vaccine injured so many.”

In my opinion: this document misleads, and has the potential to cause harm to those who take its conclusions at face-value.

According to the authors’ assessment, “it is possible to estimate that the number of deaths in Israel, which have occurred in proximity after the vaccination… at about 1600-1700 people.” Furthermore, based on direct reports to their website, they composed a table that displays both deaths and other serious or non-lethal side effects attributed to the Coronavirus vaccine.

 They write that “We found a statistically significant correlation between the daily mortality data and the daily vaccine data during January-March 2021.”  However, they do not note, even once, that the mortality occurred within the context of the Pandemic (0/0 citations within).

 

Their “2016 additional reports refer to a wide and multi-system range of adverse events that occurred in proximity after vaccination [detailed in Table 6]”, without the context of how many so-called adverse events would occur due to other causes.

 In fact, by composing a table (below) for comparison based on United States data of Coronavirus-19 related cases, versus number of Coronavirus related deaths, and presenting those numbers against those of the committee, one can conclude that the vaccine appears eminently safe (besides being effective). For instance, based on data from “Statista,” the mortality rate in all ages from the virus is much higher than from The Israeli People’s Committee.   Based on the United States Social Security Adminstration’s Actuarial Table from 2019, the risk of death in any10 year period from natural (or other causes) is much, much higher than the risk of death from the Vaccine.  This means that to attribute all reported deaths due to the vaccine in any 10-day period ignores all other reasons for dying, which are (unfortunately) much more prevalent.

Moreover, even if we accept that the administration of 15+ million doses was associated with 1650 deaths, this is far lower than the almost 8000 deaths due to the virus. In fact, if one were to normalize the populations that have received one dose (6.2 million have received at least one dose while 1.3 million have been so-far infected), then (all else equal), Israel would be facing almost 40,000 deaths without the vaccine. 

 I conclude: never has a published document been so misleading or potentially dangerous for those who refrain from being vaccinated because of it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1: Comparison of Mortality Rates from Covid-19 versus The Israel People’s Committee estimate of deaths from the vaccine.  The number, for example of 1:10,000 means that 1 out of 10,000 people in that age group die from the disease.  

Age Bracket	US Cases	US Reported Deaths	US Calculated Mortality Rates	The Israeli People’s Committee1	Risk of Death by Age (X3) Actuarial Life TableActuarial Life Table
0-17	5,199 ,905	513	1:10,000	X	1:83 (20)
18-29	7,742,370	3888	1: 1,991	1:18,000	1:69 (30)
30-39	5,841,598	11,313	1:516	1:18,000	1:47 (40)
40-49	5,121,409	28,190	1:181	1:18,000	1:30 (50)
50-64	6,787,683	125,812	1:54	1:5000	1:14 (60)
65-74	2,513, 548	160,596	1:16	1:30002	1:7 (70)
75-84	1,274,874	187,611	1:7	1:1100	1:4 (80)
Ø  85	964,714	195,007	1:5	1:1000	1:1.58 (90)

¹The Israeli People’s Committee estimated Death Rate from the Coronavirus Vaccine

²Average of row values directly above and below.

³For the year 2019: Calculate the number who die each decade from the table.  Divide this number by the number who were alive at the start of decade.  Divide 1 by this fraction to get the Risk of Death by Age (or the number who will die per value given).

Weather It Is (Falling Into Fall Weather Changes)

Good Evening:

The weather is moving into Fall-mode.  Temperatures are forecast to fall off substantially over the next couple of weeks.  At the surface, though, temperatures will still be warm under the October sun. However, aloft temperatures will be cooling and humidities increasing.  

Our first chance for showers is tomorrow, Tuesday, as colder air and humidity advects into the upper layers of the atmosphere.  This quick moving shot of cooler air will be followed by a deeper trough late this week or early next week, which could bring us our first rain.  

Of course my wife will act surprised when all this comes about. She'll probably go to school dressed for spring and come home a bit wet from the rain.  Why does this happen -- after-all, she has access to first hand information, right from the horse's mouth, so to speak?

Well, I can't really answer that, but I can tell you that the advent and length of the holidays is always a  bit of a surprise (even though they seem to come every year about the same time).  It was under these circumstances that I became a bit uncoiffed. In fact, it got so bad my wife made me sleep at a friends home until my hair was shortened and eyebrows were properly trimmed.  The good news is -- as implied -- I'm back home now.

Just prior to my unceremonious dismissal, a very strange thing happened. We were having a discussion about the leftover tuna and  I asked my wife to decide whether I should go ahead and eat it or not.  I asked a few times, until she finally said: "you decide."  I think this was the first decision I made since just after we were married, when I decided to let my wife decide -- everything.  

Euphoria set in, but it was short lived. I was left with the question: was it because it was the tuna, and who knows what might have lurked within? Would she still let me make this decision now that I am -- with her approval -- coiffed?

Be well,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Quick Moving Storm)

 

Hello:

A quick moving storm should impact central areas of Israel later tonight and tomorrow (Friday, September 25th, 2021). The storm will approach from the west, northwest, so this is a storm more typical of late fall rather than early fall ("Red Sea Trough"). The extent of the storm is not large, but the intensity of rainfall could lead to flooding in the Dead Sea Basin. The storm will also be accompanied by chilly temperatures and strong winds.

Sunday should be hot, but it will be followed by cooler weather on Monday and Simcha Torah!

Modim L'Simcha,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The New Year)

  Good afternoon:

For the moment, the heat of summer has passed us by.  True, the end of September can be, from year to year, very hot, but looking out my window today shows a completely different picture (window).   There are clouds more typical of October, but it's just after the New Year when Rosh Hashanah came as early as ever..

Our Fall weather is not like our summer weather. In summer, our weather results from a combination of two factors.  The first factor is relatively cool northwesterly breezes associated with the Persian Trough, which sits over Turkey and the eastern Mediterranean. The Persian Trough is an extension of the Indian Monsoon circulation, which leads us to our second factor: 2) The intense thunderstorms associated with the Monsoon lead to subsidence on its western side -- meaning that temperatures at higher levels warm relatively to temperatures at lower levels.  The result is that any clouds that form within the daytime sea breeze or nighttime land breeze are unable to grow high enough to condense enough moisture into rain.

Last year (Fall 2020), the Indian Monsoon was unusually active into November, which gave us a couple months of dry Fall weather.  This year, temperatures at higher levels are already lowering, and those wanna-bee clouds have become tall enough to already produce some light showers across the land.

When we look at the global ensemble forecasts, most are indicating that our relatively cool weather will persist into late September.  With the cool weather, we see the greatest chance of rain in the next couple of weeks about the time of Yom Kippur (September 15, 16).  At this time, a trough of low pressure should arrive from the northwest.   Temperatures are predicted to cool in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, as humidity rises as well.  The result should be some early Fall season showers, with rain amounts generally light throughout the period.  

Another cool period should arrive for the intermediate days of Sukkot.

Looking into October and November, our seasonal weather consultant suggests that rainfall amounts will be larger than normal, but so will dry periods.  This means relatively warm weather punctuated by some heavy downpours.

Gmar Chatima Tova!

Weather It Is (No Impact)

  Good Evening:

One more of hot weather, but next month should bring a change.  In fact, we see temperatures cooling down both near the surface, through the middle atmosphere, and even upper atmosphere (500 mb). 

Winds will switch from a southwesterly, westerly direction to a more westerly northwesterly direction,  and even clouds and a few showers could dot the sky.

Summer may not be over, but fall is making an appearance.

This article summarizes the current knowledge regarding the Coronavirus vaccine and human reproduction.  The vaccine is not found to affect reproduction in men and women, but the virus itself can be very dangerous. 

https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=b5d3d3cbff&e=ceedde1aae

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Some Transitions)

Good Afternoon:

The weather this summer has been hot, the weather has been cool, and sometimes in between. It even rained in spots one day.  All this happened while I was on "vacation."  Really, I was on a vacation from writing my blog. Hence, I am not to blame for what has transpired.

The next two weeks look to be a bit of a transition.  It's going to stay on the hot side, of course -- it's still summer.  However, temperatures at 500 mb will be falling off a bit, while humidities rise. This should lead to some high cloudiness.

As for heavy rains during Sukkot, as reported in the news.  The CFS V2 does not show any indication of enhanced rain amounts in the next few months.  In fact, it's remarkable for the fact that it shows normal conditions.  This means, generally, a chance of showers during Sukkot, but nothing unusual. Moreover the APEC Climate Center website shows below normal precipitation.  This based on multiple model simulations.

Actually, though, I have much greater confidence in forecasts for the next couple of weeks.  You can see these on our web site, or more generally here.

It's good to be back home, but I am actually in quarantine, even though I tested negative for the Coronavirus before and after my return.   The reason: my wife needed a vacation so she sent me to visit my parents in the USA.  During this time, the Israeli government decided that people arriving from the US could bring dangerous Coronavirus variants to Israel -- so they sent us all into quarantine. Yet, I came from a state with 20 persons per 100,000 sick last week, while Israel has 60 persons per 100,000.  It seems to me that my fellow Israeli citizens should have gone into quarantine when I returned, and not vice-versa. 

Being in quarantine, but without any symptoms, presents some dilemmas.  For instance, while I was away, my wife took the garbage.  While I can't say that I take the garbage all the time, I do try to contribute whenever I can (meaning, the garbage needs to go out). Since I haven't tested positive, I thought that maybe I could sneak out, quickly drop the garbage in the bin, and then run back to the house. 

However, we soon realized that this would be dangerous at best, if not foolish.  Where do you think the police wait to catch quarantine breakers?  They wait at the garbage, of course -- waiting to catch the husband taking out the garbage types who should be in quarantine.

During the last few months, I've had multiple exchanges with various people who have contrary beliefs about the Coronavirus and vaccines. Here, you'll find out some not so "useful" information -- information that contains -- sometimes a grain of truth but really leads the viewer to false and misleading conclusions.  The first gem is that the Coronavirus is simply a run of the mill cold virus (time: 3:04).  The next is that a high percentage don't get this virus, have some pre-immunity (4:05),  those who died would have died anyway (4:45), exercise prevents (cures) all (4:58), topped off by it and its variants are fading away (5:16)!  Later on this doctor recommends against pregnant women getting vaccinated.

Does this doctor have any credibility, even with the white coat?  Two months ago, Israel had 200 active cases; this month there are 50,000!  His cited "pre-immunity" doesn't seem to help very much in preventing recent infections.  The Israel Health Ministry reported that there are 151.5 out of 100,000 people in serious condition of those unvaccinated, 45 per 100,000 people who received one shot, and just 19.3 out of 100,000 people who have received both shots.  As to the idea that those people would have died anyway, estimates of excess worldwide deaths are as high as 5 million plus (with the US making up about 10% of this numbers; Israel about 5000).  Just today, our Prime Minister reported that of the 179 people who recently died, 178 were unvaccinated.  Those who choose not to vaccinate are simply asking to become seriously ill (or die).

Rather than being vaccinated, some people say they prefer to treat this illness using a combination of Zinc, HCQ (a malaria drug), and Azithromycin.  The first two medicines are supposed to reduce the viral load in the body -- aiding recovery, while the third acts against accompanying infections.  However, not all studies are positive.  Moreover, someone taking this medicine means that the person caught the virus,  possibly endangers someone else, who either does not have access to these medicines and/or is in a higher risk group. In the meantime, further study is needed.  The efficacy of vaccines, though, is not in doubt. 

 

Weather It Is (Chilly)

 Good Evening:

Good Evening:

It certainly is a tad chilly outside.  This morning the low was 13 C (here in Efrat).  

The cold weather is in response to a trough of low pressure centered north of Turkey. The trough will remain stationary and even build back in a bit as we move into next week.

The long range forecast shows a slight warming trend late next week, but summer seems to be far off.

Here's a link for a published blog.

 https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/truth-is-not-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder/

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (One More Cold Spell)

 Good Afternoon:

An unusually cold weather system will move into our area over the next couple of days.  Yet,while cold, moisture with this weather system is somewhat limited, so we should expect just a period of light rain on Shabbat with the passing low.

The low pressure trough will move slowly away as the days pass into mid-week,  Winds become more southwesterly and some upper level moisture may even trigger some thundershowers.

The temperatures look to be on an upswing until next Shabbat.  After that, no real cold weather is in sight, but the global forecast remains uncertain: temperatures just may continue into more summerlike temperatures, or revert back to a more mild spring.  

The mild spring like temperatures are the ones where people stop me to tell me what a good job I am doing this spring with the weather: a strong sun, with temperatures warm enough to be comfortable, but not warm enough to break a sweat.  

It's been a while since I last wrote a blog.  True, the weather didn't stop, but I've been unusually busy.  I had to spend a couple weeks in the US helping out at the old homestead, and then Passover arrived.  Quite frankly, we had a terrible time identifying and finding all the unleavened products in our home ("Chametz"), and eventually gave up and just sold the house for the holiday. Fortunately, the contract was cancelled shortly after the holiday ended, and we were able to once again inhabit the premises. 

In our world of constant news, constant opinion, and even constant opinion pretending to be news, it can be difficult to know the difference between truth and falsehood.

During the last year, there's been both intentional and unintentional statements that turned out to be false.

1) The Coronavirus first wave will pass -- like all waves -- and that will be its end.  It wasn't (there are at least 4 distinct waves). 

2) The Coronavirus will end this (last summer).  It didn't.

3) By late September, the Coronavirus will be a past memory.  It is still quite in our memory.

4) Since flu vaccinations do not protect more than 50% of the population that receives them, the Coronavirus will not be any better.  The efficacy rate for the Coronavirus vaccine is above 90%.

5) The virus can mutate to protect itself from the vaccine.  In fact, the virus can mutate, but only incidentally -- and such mutations might render the vaccine less effective.  More importantly, ff a person was vaccinated, the virus was killed by the immune system, it is very unlikely to spread a dangerous mutation.

6) Young and healthy people are not affected by the Coronavirus.  In fact, while younger people are much less likely to die from the disease, a noticeable proportion have continuing long term symptoms. 

7) Women  of childbearing years should not get the vaccine.  Except that new coronavirus variants were especially dangerous, if not deadly to pregnant women.

8) Taking Zinc and other "antiviral" medicines will stave off the Coronavirus.  While "strengthening" the immune system through exercise, diet, etc, is a good idea, the novelty of the coronavirus means that the immune system is not prepared to fight the virus until (in too many) it has the upperhand and causes serious illness. 

On another subject. 

1) The unusually cold and snowy February in the United States means that global warming is a falsehood.  In fact, cold air intrusions far south of the poles appear to have become more frequent as the world warms, and the arctic warms even more.  The added energy to the arctic circulation has destabilized the polar vortex, making periods of unusually cold weather not a thing of the past. On average, though, the world is warmer than it was.

8) The Texas blackouts were caused by the use of renewable energy sources.  In fact, the main cause of the Texas blackouts was poor infrastructure maintenance and the fact that Texas is no longer part of the National grid. Renewables, actually, make up only a small part of the power supply in Texas.

9) The United States should re-enter the Iran nuclear deal says a 100 or so ex Israeli generals, security officials.  But what if 20 times that say we shouldn't?  They do.

So, where do these false or even silly ideas come from?  They usually come people who have a more radical political agenda or strong belief that they are being lied to for ulterior and nefarious motives.  There are also people who seek publicity and followers simply by being contrary.  

On the other hand, there is a lack of trust in news sources, which creates fertile ground for the conspiracists.  To limit the future damaging impact of conspiracists, newspaper and other news sources need to stop substituting opinion for news, and edit out those opinions based on made up facts.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Three Flour Challah)

Good Morning:

My wife and I share the kitchen.

When we moved to our new home,  my wife was very insistent that we have both a meat and dairy sink.  How else were we to be sure to follow the Torah commandment not to mix milk and meat.  In fact, she even designed an L-shaped kitchen such that the sinks are not even part of the same countertop.

Yet, it soon became very clear to me that the real purpose of the separation was to make sure that the two of us would never meet at the same (kitchen) place, and it turns out even at the same time (I'm the morning cooker, and she is the afternoon cooker, when it comes to preparing for Shabbat).

This is hard for me to accept, but I see the same behavior from our daughters, too.  So, I must take full responsibility for this aversion to my presence in the kitchen. Apparently,  nothing is more "annoying" than having to share the kitchen with me, or if you prefer: "what are you doing here, now?"

Yet, I have to say,  I just may not deserve such opprobrium.  Okay, maybe I do, but as in life, it's sometimes better to focus on where you going rather than the mess along the way.

With the advice of a friend, I've been trying to perfect my Shabbat Challah recipe.  In fact, chemistry was one of my favorite subjects.  How much water to titrate (add) into the solid (flours) to turn it into a liquid (pliable dough)?  How much sucrose or sugar to sweeten it?

The "problem" is that much is a matter of taste, rather than how many moles (or Tablespoons) of oil one adds so that the bread is moist, but not too moist to work with.

To arrive at my perfect Challah has taken years of finessing, and much feedback from the philosopher-scientist among the kids. By perfect here, I mean more perfect than before, which as you know is a very precise definition of perfection.  I even had a little help from my friend. But, it was my wife who pointed out that it's honey that can give bread a dry texture, which runs counter to the advice I found on the internet. So, I have now left it out of this later challah iteration.

The other problem in baking Challah is size.  Challah is best eaten fresh, and how many times does one want to make "French-Toast" with its leftovers.  Hence, the recipe I provide below is for a family that likes Challah for Friday night dinner, and individual portions or rolls for Shabbat day.

It's a recipe for three-flour Challah, white, whole wheat, and spelt. I add the ingredients to the bread machine (dough cycle) in the order listed.

3/4 cups water

2 eggs

3 Tb of olive oil

1 1/2 Tb of salt

1/8 to 1/4 cup sugar

1 Cup white flour

1 Cup Spelt flour

1 Cup Whole Wheat Flour

1/8 to 1/4 cup Gluten (to add texture)

2 tsp of active dry yeast

After the initial mixing, make sure the dough is pliable, but not sticky.  If it is sticky, add a bit more flour (or  if lumpy, vice versa). After the dough rises, divide into about equal halves.  One half will make around five Challah rolls, which are simply twisted into shape.  Otherwise, cut the other half lengthwise into three strands, and then braid them into a Challah.

Brush with a beaten egg, and let rise at 45 Celsius until about double in size (around 1/2 an hour).  Brush again, and then sprinkle with sesame and/or poppy seeds. Bake at 180 Celsius.  I just turn the oven on with the aspiring Challahs inside and set the timer for 29 minutes.  Despite my attention to moles and proper titration, this seems to work just fine.  The Challahs should be nicely brown on the outside, but not hard.

For those without a bread maker, add the yeast directly to the liquid, and then add 1 cup of flour to blend the rest of the ingredients together (but not the gluten).  You can then add the gluten and rest of the flour and knead the dough for about five minutes.  After enough kneading, the dough should be pliable and springy, so I've read.  Let the dough rise in a warm place or oven, until about double the size.  Then proceed to divide, brush with egg, let rise again, and bake as mentioned above.

I have attached a video of last week's snowstorm, blizzard. To cook up that storm to perfection was an involved process, really the culmination of years of work. This is a credit to the developers of weather forecast technology, including a greater ability to assimilate (add) observations to the forecast models, and further improvements in the ability to simulate the finer scale cloud processes that brought our snow.

In fact, I remember experiments from the 1980s (referred to as "GALE")  to measure and better understand the finer scale physical processes that lead to the genesis and intensification of east coast US storms,  These experiments helped enable the development of improved weather forecasting technology, and started the process towards improved wintertime forecasts. In fact, I remember that the winter of 1992-93 was the first time forecasters in the New York Metropolitan area were able to predict the day to day arrival of winter storms.  Here and in our time, we make use of forecasts made by the National Center for Environmental Prediction covering the globe and combine them with our very high resolution forecast, but limited area models to predict our wintertime storms.

The video was taken in Efrat by a colleague from our Israel Winter Weather group (now four people).  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJpOO5-6Mp4&ab_channel=jconsor) We finally had more to do than talk about snow, but actually measure it.  It actually happened, and happened as forecast.  Interestingly, the snow forecast amounts were quite sensitive to elevation, even in Gush Etzion, where about 25 cm occurred in Efrat, but 30 to 40 cm was estimated in Alon Shavut, for example,  which is higher than Efrat. Moreover, the snow in Alon Shavut was more powdery than the snow in Efrat (my kids really enjoyed throwing snowballs at me, but it wasn't so easy to throw snowballs at Dads in Alon Shavut).

The next period of stormy weather should occur mid next week, when the weather should turn chillier and rainier again.

Barry Lynn 

Weather It Is (Strong Thunderstorms)

 Good Morning:

1) Possibility of strong thunderstorms, mostly across southern areas this morning, possibly moving into central areas this afternoon.

A very strong upper level low is moving across the Sinai today and will transition across southern Israel this afternoon and evening.  The strong temperature gradient between the surface and upper atmosphere, combined with dust, creates the possibility of strong thunderstorms.  These storms can produce flooding rains and hail.

Unlike the first part of February, the atmospheric pattern is set up for a period of cool weather with periodic episodes of precipitation into the first week of March.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Blizzard Warning)

 Good Morning:

A blizzard warning for Jerusalem and surrounding areas for this afternoon and evening.

The latest forecasts have shifted the center of cold air tens of kilometers southward from the forecast of yesterday morning.  This returns us closer to our original forecast of heavy snow for the Jerusalem area as well as the surrounding locations. The difference is only a small fraction of the amplitude of the atmospheric winter wave, but has very important implications for our weather.

Low pressure moving southeastward across Cyprus will reach our area this afternoon. Already, snow flurries are falling in the Jerusalem area as temperatures are near freezing.

As the coldest air moves in, winds will increase to 50 to 60 km/h, with higher gusts.  Heavy snow and wind should combine to create blizzard conditions across the central mountain areas, including Jerusalem as the afternoon moves on to evening.

The snow should start this afternoon and accumulate on colder surfaces. Late this afternoon and night, the snow should accumulate generally 5 to 10 cm in the Jerusalem area, with between 10 and  20 cm in higher elevation areas of the city boundaries.  In the area of the Shomron 15 to 20 cm,  while in Gush Etzion 30 to 40 cm.  Northern areas, such as Meron and Sefad should receive between 5 and 20 cm, depending on elevation.

The storm will abate on Thursday morning, but it should remain cold and wet (with rain, rather than snow, to follow on Friday/Shabbat.

Be well,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Significant Snow)

 Good Morning:

The Global Forecasts have come into better agreement, but in the direction of the colder GFS (American Model).

Our own forecasts are indicating a significant snow for the Jerusalem area, with the highest elevations exceeding 30 cm in the Tuesday night to Wednesday night timeframe.  Jerusalem is also expected to see significant amounts of snow.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Winterstorm is Likely)

 

Good Sunday Morning:

Another day closer, and a bit more information to pass on.  There have been some fluctuations in the weather forecast.  Even so, the United States's Global Forecast Ensemble System suggests that the atmospheric conditions will be favorable for significant snowstorm in Jerusalem and surrounding areas on Wednesday of this week..

Our high-resolution forecast shows snow and ice developing in the mountains of Safed in the afternoon on Tuesday and spreading to the mountains of the Shomron by and during Tuesday night. As for Jerusalem, only light precipitation mounts are shown as the clock moves towards 2 A.M. It's at that time that the storm should advance southward as we move into Wednesday, which will most likely lead to snow developing late Tuesday night and lasting into Wednesday night in the central mountain areas.

For those amateur meteorologists who want to see the publicly available data, they can peruse the web site https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ and click below the map for our region.  You'll find forecast maps labeled "Global" and "Ensemble." These models predict the synoptic (large scale) patterns that can bring us our inclement weather. Forecast centers produce both sets of forecast maps, but the first set are their best versions of the model, and are a single forecast for the upcoming days.  The second set are multiple forecasts made with the same model or a degraded version of the model (e.g., larger grid-spacings between forecast points). In these forecasts, small uncertainties are usually introduced into the measured observations.  This second set gives us an idea of the likelihood of the forecast event happening.

There are some differences among the models, among which the GFS/GEFS (US), GMC/GPES (Canadian), ECMWF/EPS (European) are considered the best.  Right now, the GFS and GEFS predict the heaviest potential snowfalls.  We tend to follow the GFS and the GEFS in this time frame (within a few days of a storm). In fact, our experience tells us that the GFS is a very accurate forecast model within the timeframe of a few days closest to a major snow or rain event.  Moreover, the European models are shifting in the direction (cold) of the GFS (and GEFS).  Regardless, the differences do make one pause.

We'll see how the forecasts progress as we move into Monday.

There is a lot of pressure being a meteorologist in Israel.  We're a small country living next to a relatively small body of water, which leads to generally small scale meteorological features (called mesoscale) that can bring extremely heavy rains, or even snow that falls like someone dumping flour from the sky.

I find -- and I am not alone among forecasters -- that the intensity of the situation can affect my sleeping patterns.  For instance, last night I dreamed that I had to make a forecast for heavy snow, but couldn't find the day of the forecast on the weather map.

How did I ever get involved in forecasting weather?  The main reason was disappointment.  The forecasts in the 1970s were generally terrible. It would rain when it was forecast to snow, and vice-versa.  After one such event, I asked my sixth grade teacher why it didn't snow, and on his prompting I was off to the library to learn about weather.

Back then, before the advent of the internet, one just needed a barometer, thermometer, and wind vane.  My Dad kindly placed the wind vane on the top of my childhood home (the roof! See picture), and with the "Sager Weather Forecaster" book I was off.  The world became my scientific laboratory.

But, what is my interest in snow?  For me, I was always fascinated by the different shapes that fell from the sky.  Supposedly, not a single flake -- like (most) people -- has ever been the same as any other. There are hexagons, stars, and even suns. Snowflakes fall so, so slowly, as if they have nowhere to go, but to relax and watch each other enjoy the day off from school.  As the snow falls, the world quiets until all one can hear are the whoosh of their filling parachutes as each flake breaks before landing.  In time, the Cubist world our mind sees is replaced by the softness of an Impressionist painting .

To know that such a world is likely just a few days away, is something wonderful to be able to share.

Let's hope we're up to the task!

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The Threat Grows)

 Good Evening:

The threat of a major winter snowstorm has grown since our previous update.

However, there is still some disagreement among the global forecast models concerning the positioning of the trough of very cold air.

Based on the American GEFS, there should be heavy snow from late Tuesday into late Wednesday, possibly greater than 30 cm of snow (even in Jerusalem).  However, the European model and to some extent the Canadian global models are showing a shallower trough.  Their forecast solutions would lead to a slushy accumulations in Jerusalem with more snow in Gush Etzion.  Interestingly, the operational version of the Canadian model  (at higher resolution than its ensemble) is showing about 20 cm of snow, so that favors more the GEFS forecast.  

Differences in the model forecasts can be due differences in the grid spacing in the forecasts, data assimilation schemes, and model physics.  As we've noted before, the Siberian trough is originating from an area with less data coverage, making the forecast more difficult.  Regardless, we see a lot of potential for a snowstorm. 

Tomorrow morning, we should have more information to pass along. We'll then be able on Monday to offer our own snow forecast accumulations from our high resolution forecast model. 

Shavua Tov,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Winter Storm Approaches)

 Good Morning:

A lot of words have been written over the last several years, and a lot of (snow) hopes dashed.

We hope that this will not now be the case.

Since the beginning of February, we've been speaking about a cold period to arrive in mid-February.  I wish I could have told my blueberry plants to hold off, despite the warm weather, on blooming, but they don't have access to our weather discussion.

An unusual series of events has created changes in the global circulation that should lead to our best chance for snow in Jerusalem since 2015.  The same series of events, initiated by a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW), has led to unusually long snowy period in the New York Metropolitan Area. It basically involves (as shown in the graphic from Jonathon Hoffman's Facebook page www.facebook.com/jerusalemwf) a large ridge of higher pressure extending from Alaska, across the north pole, through northern Europe and into the southern Mediterranean.  To the west of the European high is very strong low pressure that has become stationary.  To the east, the disturbance in the Jet Stream caused by the SSW has pushed plenty of cold air southward into Siberia, which extends in the  graphic southward from Siberia into our area.  Indeed, the forecast is for unusually cold winter air to flow into our area starting on Tuesday the 16th.   

Currently, the forecast is indicating the greatest chance of accumulating snow on Wednesday the 17th of February into Thursday the 18th of February.   The unusually cold weather should remain with us until Sunday the 21st. 

It often happens that the first cold wave is followed by another a couple of days later.  There is a hint of this, which would bring back snow or a very cold rain on Shabbat.  

Keep in mind that the potential snow event is about a week into the future, and only in December of 2013 was I able to forecast snow in Jerusalem so far in advance. Yet in that sense, such a strong signal is a positive sign in terms of forecast accuracy.   Also, the global forecast models have improved dramatically since then, which gives us greater confidence in the forecast even a week in advance.  This also enables even greater accuracy in our high resolution forecasts that we'll create just prior to event, if the situation still warrants.

Until then, be well,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Storm Threatens)

Good Afternoon: 

A storm threatens.

As noted, yesterday turned out to be a day of intense storms.  Plenty of moisture and dust from a southern moving storm combined to invigorate a line of convective storms that swept through central and southern areas early afternoon.  Here in Efrat, the rain literally poured down the windows, as if a giant car wash had come to wash off all the homes.  My rain gauge showed forty five millimeters of rain, which also included quite a bit of hail.  More than 207,000 lightning events were recorded from Egypt to Lebanon, from the eastern Mediterranean to Jordan and Saudia Arabia. About a third of these were cloud to ground lightning, as measured on Earth Networks Global-and the Israel Total Lightning Network. 

Although interspersed with dry periods,  this season's accumulated rain has been close to or above normal, putting to question the expected (or hoped) for value of seasonal forecasts (which were for much below normal precipitation). Yet, our Israel Winter Weather group has noted aspects of the forecast map that are consistent with periods of below normal rainfall, and unusually warm weather (after all, the Almond trees are blooming). 

Another dry period will be in store for us, which should last into mid next week.  Then, the Global ensemble Forecast Systems model suggests a rainy period.  The rain should herald a period of wet weather and falling temperatures.  In fact, we see the first signal on the forecast maps for an accumulating snow during the mid month period.  Hints of colder and possibly snowy weather have  been appearing for several days now, but the latest forecasts show the possibility of significantly deeper trough and colder weather than we've seen this year.  

I'm giving the heads up because I've come into some criticism in the recent past.  It started last Friday evening when I put on my coat, took my prayer book, and headed out to Minyon.  I was -- I admit -- a bit surprised to find that it was raining.  I returned home only to meet my wife, who said the whole episode was a big embarrassment (for her), and that she wouldn't be able to go shopping on Sunday for fear of meeting someone who might have seen her husband out in the rain, searching for a Minyon.  

Then, the next day, I learned that I am the cause of marital "strife."  The husband, I was told, follows my discussion, while the wife follows the weather page (weather-it-is-israel.com).  For cost reasons, the weather page's forecast is based on a single forecast, while my discussion for several days out is based on an ensemble of forecasts.  The result can be that a forecast discussion for Shabbat can speak about the chance of rain, while the website forecast shows just a sunny day.  I suggested to the couple that not everything is black and white, and that each one has to give a little to make things works.

In fact, a little forgetfulness can go a long way.  I appreciate it when people forget my forecasts when they are not so accurate (e.g., wrong).  I don't mind if they remember the good ones, but the point is to forget the so-called bad, and not to embellish.

For instance, The New York Times report on a hammer attack in Midtown Manhattan revealed how witnesses can embellish their memories to fit a preconceived narrative.  In the reported story, both persons saw parts of the attack, but not all of it (https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/15/nyregion/witness-accounts-in-midtown-hammer-attack-show-the-power-of-false-memory.html).  One thought the police had shot a fleeing man, while another thought the police shot the same man while he was on the ground in handcuffs.  Cameras clearly showed, though, that the man tried to attack another police officer with a hammer, who was then shot in chase, and handcuffed only afterwards. The article suggests that our minds partake in this charade in order to make sense out of quickly changing events, especially in times of stress.

While much of our daily existence is not as exciting as a city chase, we all should keep in mind that our memories serve us, but sometimes our memories are simply the world we wish could be.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Floods Possible)

 Good Afternoon:

A storm moving across the southern Mediterranean sea will bring moisture and thunderstorms, with the heaviest rain over southern areas.   Winds will transport plenty of dust into the developing storms, making for a greater likelihood of lightning and hail, and flash flooding.  The period of wet weather should last from sometime tonight into Friday afternoon. 

The warm weather will come to an end as the storm moves in, but will return for early next week. This warm period will bring unusually warm weather for this not so late winter period. 

Hopefully, the plants will ignore the coming warm weather because there looks to be  a return to wetter and more chilly weather for the mid month period.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Rain with Some Ice)

 Good morning:

Over the last few days, the forecasts have trended colder as a trough of low pressure develops over the eastern Mediterranean.  This trough will bring moderate to heavy rain this Friday morning to coastal areas and the mountains of the Galilee and of Jerusalem.

As typical for our area, we are right on the edge relative to liquid or frozen precipitation, but temperatures will be too warm in the middle atmosphere for snow.  However, cold temperatures at the surface and cold temperature aloft will probably support ice pellets from time to time.  This can make for slippery driving conditions in the higher mountainous areas. Cold temperatures and showers will persist into Shabbat.

Rain returns mid next week.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn