Weather It Is (Severe Storm)

Good Evening:

Today heralds the arrival of our first winter storm.  True, temperatures are more like fall than winter, but the winds, precipitation amounts, and length of the storm are more similar to winter storms of past years than to brief, but heavy rains of fall.

The heaviest rain and severe thunderstorms last night were south of Cyprus and west of Haifa, but today they were over northern Israel and along the Jordan Valley north and south of the Dead sea (see our "PulseRad" lightning map from this Thursday afternoon).

Tonight a strong cold front will move southward as the storm center moves into Lebanon and Syria.  The GFS (Global Forecast Model) is predicting rain over southern areas, but our high resolution ensemble predicts heavy rain stretching southwest near Gaza northeast through Jerusalem to just south of Lake Kinneret. The heaviest rain should fall late night into Friday morning, with showers and periods of rain over the center and southern areas on Friday. Rain should also occur over the far north.

The forecast is also showing not just rain, but lightning as well.  With the storms should come strong winds between 50 and 75 km, with higher values along the northwest coast.

The next week will see a return to more fall-like weather.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Is There Rain On The Horizon?)

Good Afternoon:

The weather the past few days has been simply gorgeous.  The temperatures have been cool during the night and warm during the day, and there are even some clouds to make us think of winter.

The weather maps suggest that the cool weather should continue through the end of this week, but then there should be a turn towards more fall-like (what we now associate only with winter) weather.

Ahead of next week's storm, temperatures should warm into the upper 20s and maybe even the low 30s, but the mid-week period should see an increase in moisture from the west, as cool air sags southward into the eastern Mediterranean.

The latest forecast shows that the heavier precipitation with this upcoming storm will most likely stay to our north, but the Global Ensemble Forecasts System still shows the chance of rain in our area. If the system does move further south, we're likely to see our first significant rains.

The latest word from the Israel Water Authority, via Dr. Amir Givati (Head of Surface Water Management) is that all seasonal models are predicting above normal precipitation amounts for this coming winter.  The CFS-V2 is predicting normal surface temperatures, so we (or at least some of us) can hope that this winter will see snow return to Jerusalem during one of these precipitation events.

I really wish that I had the respect and admiration that will surely come Dr. Givati's way when the skies open up, and even a few folks head out to build their version of "Noach' Ark."

You see, while I've been a weather forecaster since sixth grade (I was angry after another missed snow-storm -- this was before the more "modern" era of weather forecasting), I've never really had much respect for it. My wife takes a jacket when I say it will be sunny, and she leaves it at home if I say it will rain. The kids never know what to wear, and if I tell them they come home grumpy (usually, they've dressed too warmly).

Perhaps realizing what the future would bring, I figured I better have a useful skill -- which is the reason I learned how to cook.  I also thought that it would help me in the dating department.  When at a loss of words, you can always say: "I can cook."  I found it a great conversation starter, and was always amazed at the look of amazement on the faces of whomever I happened to be meeting that night.  True, I never saw that person again, but at least we ended on what seemed like a high note.

Strangely, my wife seemed to appreciate both my ability to cook and the actualization of it. But, that was before we were married.

The other day I pointed out that my daughter had left the mixer on the counter.  True, her puff cakes were delicious, but the mixer still remained.  Rather than getting a word of understanding my wife pointed out that she preferred the mixer on the counter than I in the kitchen.

You'd think, though, that there are at least some other things a husband can do to make his wife happy, or at least help out.  After a summer of hard work (I in front of the computer, and she at the supermarket), my wife announced that she was on strike -- no more supermarket shopping for her. Here was my chance: I took off to the local supermarket (even without a list) and proudly announced that my wife was on strike and that I would be the primary shopper from now on.

What a fool I was: within a few weeks she was back at the supermarket.  She says that she just needed a few things, but a few things were really many things.  I'm so embarrassed -- isn't there anything a husband can do to gain a bit of appreciation?

Yes -- and my chance happened last night.  The phone rang in the situation room (downstairs).  It was my wife and she was hysterical.  When I arrived at the room her head was covered with dolls, pillows, and blankets.  All I could see was her nose.   Of course, so could the mosquito, which seemed to fly both in and out as I watched in horror.  "Help me," she said: "it's giant."

I told her to remain calm, relaxed, and hopeful -- she would be the prey, while I would hunt the hunter.  After an hour of a dive-bombing mosquito, and squeals of I don't know what, I and my high-powered flashlight found the mosquito hiding in the recess of our skylight.  With a whack that was the end of (the rather large) mosquito.

You should have seen the smile she had for me this morning: forget the cooking and shopping, I'm teaching my son how to kill mosquitos.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Fall Has Arrived)

Good Afternoon:

The weather during the holidays was hot. Interestingly, towards the end of the hot spell we had 2 days of temperatures in the mid-30s, but with very low humidity, which were followed by temperatures in the low 30s, but with extremely high humidity. Here in the mountains of Jerusalem, it felt like we were living in Tel-Aviv.  One wonders what Tel-Avivians felt like.

Since then, winds have turned around and have been blowing predominately from the northwest and temperatures have consistently been more fall like than anything else. In fact, there are even periods of clouds to make one think that winter is around the corner.

The weather maps show streaks of moisture moving around low pressure over the Mediterranean. The situation should remain static for the next few days,  but then cooler air moving southward will intensify this low pressure as we move into Shabbat and early next week. This means the possibility of rain showers, most likely over northern areas.

In the meantime, temperatures will remain fall-like, with temperatures in the mid-20s in many locations.

With another two persons murdered at the Barkan Industrial site, one wonders when this might all end?  My mother in law mentioned that it's been the same for the last 70 years with no let up of the terrorism, and no change in the goals of our enemies (to destroy the State of Israel). In fact, there are even groups whose entire efforts are dedicated to preventing any type of coexistence between Palestinians and Israelis.  It's obvious that Hamas in Gaza is still dedicated to our destruction, even at the expense of the residents of Gaza.  The government in Ramallah --  in contrast -- tries to maintain a modicum of normalcy, but it supports and encourages terrorism among its citizens through education, religious indoctrination, and media.

The media in general likes to blame our Prime Minister for the dire prospects for peace. One wonders if their memory is only as long as yesterday's news.  For instance, in 1993, the Oslo accords were signed.  Yet, a few days later "President" Arafat told his audience that this was just a stage, a temporary detour on the way to our destruction.

There are those who also blame the failure of the peace process on the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin.  However, they forget that there were a number of bombings during his tenure and that of Prime Minister Peres.  Moreover, Prime Minister Netanyahu reached two agreements to withdraw from various "Palestinian" cities.

Even more, when the public decided that the peace process was going to slowly, they elected Prime Minister Barak.  Under the auspices of President Clinton, Mr. Barak offered President Arafat a very good deal. Instead of accepting the deal, Mr. Arafat launched a war that left 1000s dead.  Then, in 2008, Prime Minister Olmert offered President Abbas the "Deal of the Century," but Mr. Abbas never responded.

When Mr. Netanyahu returned to head the government, he also enforced a year long building freeze -- Mr. Abbas never accepted a meeting to talk peace.

So, the blame is clearly on the Palestinian leadership.  They have no interest in any deal that leaves two states for two peoples.

Given the continued incitement in Palestinian media and continued payments to terrorists for murder, I admire Prime Minister Netanyahu's for carefully fending off pressure from international bodies to give more land and/or control to the Palestinian Authority while doing his best to thwart the plans of terrorists.

Considering that many more people are killed on the roads (and Pedestrians, too), we should be thankful for our continued success and strive to end our own self-inflicted woes.

Barry Lynn