Good Afternoon:
You know it's time to change your field of work when one of your weather group members describes the weather as "boring." One might just as well change your group's name from "Israel Winter Weather" to "Israel's Knitting Club" with no offense to my grandmother or my mother (I still have the wool blanket my grandmother knit for me).
It's true that the dreaded "Spanish Low" is now gone, and much colder weather is on the way, but other than the chill, some gusty winds, and a some rain showers, there isn't really much to speak about.
Currently, there is a weak area of high pressure over Spain and northern Africa, and a weak trough should move through our area tonight, ending our relatively mild weather. The ridge will amply such that by late week a trough will drop down into our area bringing more showers. However, it and another trough should move quickly through the area. Moreover, there is no connection between this quickly moving trough and colder air to our north, and the air over Siberia (at times, our real winter cold winter source) is not particularly frigid. To add insult to injury, the whole pattern will translate to the east, and next week should be comparatively mild with just a few, scattered showers.
It just doesn't seem like much to get excited about or to sit up and say "wow" over.
I think it is important, in life, to be able to say wow from time to time, but what do you do if -- as you pass into later years -- the aches and pains of old age make it harder to sit up and take notice? My father recently arrived at the age of 90 years old, but he told me that it's hard for him to spend more time taking care of himself, then taking care of his interests. Many of us our aware of those who lived happy lives deciding at some point that the effort becomes just too much.
Moreover, even our friends of not too middle age get sick or depart suddenly, and it makes one question our assumptions about the "permanence" of life (or being).
The Israeli life expectancy is fairly high and getting higher (https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/). Also, a number of medicines and treatments were recently added to the health basket to bring new treatments, if not cures (https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-to-inject-nis-500m-into-health-system-for-new-drug-medical-treatments/). Yet, when it comes to personal care of those who are nearing their end, our hospitals lack sensitivity to patients. Individually, most doctors and nurses do their best, but internal medicine units and urgent care units are overwhelmed with Patients. One might be given a "call button," but often there is really no one who answers (nurses and doctors can't be in two places at once). Patients are also given the appearance of urgent care, even when everyone knows that the end is near.
Patients (or their loved ones) need to be given the option to be sent home. It's depressing enough for a patient to be in a room full of noise, lights, and blank walls, but why make it worse for the family that must sit by his or her side? Why remember the last days of a loved one, as spent in an impersonal room with no remembrance of the life that was? Moreover, those who just might make it home, with the right care and timely care, are mixed with those who won't, dulling the sensitivities to those who might just be helped.
So, with all that to consider and at times to worry about, one might begin to wonder what is the point of it all. Why are we here and what is our purpose in being here?
I've come to think that the purpose of life is to make new life. What do fruiting trees do? They grow bloom and produce seeded fruit. What do we do? We smile over a baby's smile. We laugh with our children, we take pride in their accomplishments. I stop to wonder at a sunrise, and find peacefulness just staring at the snow.
The first thing to realize is that birth, growth, senescence, and death are all all part of a continuum. Something or someone is born and something or someone else departs, but the inbetween is why we are here.
Our goal should not to be to live everyday like it is our last, but to live each day like today matters to us, to bring a smile to someone, to create some memory or experience, to give each day meaning.
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, January 28, 2020
Thursday, January 23, 2020
Weather It Is (In the End)
Good morning:
As previously mentioned, on Erev Shabbat I was accosted by a Beit Knesset Member who told me not to write anything about the possibility of snow this past week. He was worried about the "evil-eye" being cast on the potential upcoming snowy weather. The evening after, my son noted that whenever I mention that it might snow, but need to check the weather maps after Shabbat, the snow in the forecast goes away.
So, you could imagine my surprise when the weather maps and global forecast ensemble (GEFS) graphs suggested that the upcoming (past) week was going to be cold, and the end of the week quite possibly even colder and quite snowy.
The weather this year has been quite different from last year. Last year, there were a number of small rain events, interspersed with a few heavier rain events The rain started late this year (the last week in December), but since then, in contrast, we've had one heavy rain event after another. For instance, even Sunday's storm exceeded expectations, with more than 25 mm of rain being measured here in Efrat. Moreover, it was a very quiet storm, without a crash of thunder or the hammering of hail -- it just rained, and rained, and kept on raining. It shows that one can accomplish quite a lot with consistent , but quiet effort, and with great modesty.
We also spoke about a disagreement in the global forecast models. After the European and American ensemble models indicated a significant storm at the end the week, their forecasts diverged: For instance, the American model suggested that there would be a cold mid-week storm, while the European model indicated a late week storm.
We did have a mid-week storm that brought (as forecast) some snow (but not accumulating) to Gush Etzion and some flakes in the air in Jerusalem. The problem was that temperatures were cold enough for snow, but not cold enough to "stick" on the ground (without turning to slush or just disappearing). For a while, I kept putting on my jacket to go outside and take pictures, but the snow would stop before I could step out the door. In the end, it was exciting to watch our first snow, even if the amounts were negligible (see: https://youtu.be/MivzJRGjqAM).
We're now before our next winter storm, and we're going to miss this one. While early in the week the forecasts showed a very cold 500 mb trough dropping down off our coast, the forecasted storm began to drift eastward, and now the coldest air should pass over Jordan. We mentioned this before, but we were hopeful the colder and further west forecasts in the ensemble might "win out." The problem was, as noted, was that within the developing ridge to our west was a fierce low pressure area that brought lots of snow and unusually cold weather to Spain. Rather than remaining with the ridge, it is now merging with the polar jet stream to its north. The result is that the ridge trough couplet has shifted eastward, and so has our storm.
For later today and tomorrow, expect rain in most places, but the Golan, where from 5 to 50 cm of snow should accumulate, depending on elevation (5 cm, for example in Neve Ativ, and 50 cm on the Hermon). Otherwise, temperatures should become cold in the area of Safed and Jerusalem, with temperatures in the lower single digits from about mid-day Friday until mid-day Shabbat. There should be snow mixed with rain in the early morning in Safed and late morning and early afternoon in Gush Etzion. It will feel quite cold because of the wind chill, as strong winds develop from morning to afternoon.
Next week should turn milder, but the end of the month should end on a colder and rainier note. At the moment, we do not see the possibility for an accumulating snow before February. But, even if we did, we wouldn't really know until just two or three days before at most.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, January 21, 2020
Weather It Is (Snow More Likely Today)
Good Morning:
The latest global ensemble data (GEFS) shows that temperatures aloft are forecast to be about 1 degree colder than the forecast from yesterday. Moreover, lower atmospheric temperatures are also forecast to be colder than though yesterday. Temperatures at 850 mb in the central mountains should be about -2 C, while at 700 mb the temperatures should be about -12.5 C. At 500 mb, temperatures are forecast to be about -29 C.
The difference is enough to up the relative amounts of snow compared to graupel and rain. Based on a high-resolution WRF forecast based in the Department of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Givat Ram) liquid equivalent amounts of snow should be between 3-5 mm in Gush Etzion and 1-3 mm in Jerusalem. Up to 5 to 10 mm of liquid equivalent ice is possible in Gush Etzion, with 3 - 5 mm in Jerusalem. Moreover, the change over to a mixture of snow, ice, and rain should occur by late morning, with the heaviest snow in the afternoon and evening hours.
I wrote "liquid equivalent," rather than snow accumulation (in centimeters) because surface temperatures will probably be too warm for snow to "stick," except on possibly cars or other cold surfaces. There is normally about 10 to 1 ratio between snow amounts and liquid equivalent amounts.
We'll probably come close to seeing snow accumulate, but not close enough. Still, roads could become slippery in heavier ice/snow interludes.
As for Friday's storm: there is a 25% chance of a significant snow (based on the European Ensemble forecast from late evening yesterday).
Barry Lynn
The latest global ensemble data (GEFS) shows that temperatures aloft are forecast to be about 1 degree colder than the forecast from yesterday. Moreover, lower atmospheric temperatures are also forecast to be colder than though yesterday. Temperatures at 850 mb in the central mountains should be about -2 C, while at 700 mb the temperatures should be about -12.5 C. At 500 mb, temperatures are forecast to be about -29 C.
The difference is enough to up the relative amounts of snow compared to graupel and rain. Based on a high-resolution WRF forecast based in the Department of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Givat Ram) liquid equivalent amounts of snow should be between 3-5 mm in Gush Etzion and 1-3 mm in Jerusalem. Up to 5 to 10 mm of liquid equivalent ice is possible in Gush Etzion, with 3 - 5 mm in Jerusalem. Moreover, the change over to a mixture of snow, ice, and rain should occur by late morning, with the heaviest snow in the afternoon and evening hours.
I wrote "liquid equivalent," rather than snow accumulation (in centimeters) because surface temperatures will probably be too warm for snow to "stick," except on possibly cars or other cold surfaces. There is normally about 10 to 1 ratio between snow amounts and liquid equivalent amounts.
We'll probably come close to seeing snow accumulate, but not close enough. Still, roads could become slippery in heavier ice/snow interludes.
As for Friday's storm: there is a 25% chance of a significant snow (based on the European Ensemble forecast from late evening yesterday).
Barry Lynn
Monday, January 20, 2020
Weather It Is (Very Cold With Possible Snow)
Good Afternoon:
Highlights:
1) Very cold Tuesday with rain mixing with snow in the higher elevations of the Galilee and Jerusalem Mountains
2) Otherwise, 25 to 50 mm of precipitation generally along the coastal cities, and the central mountains.
3) Strong "River" flows in the northern Jordan Valley, and Negev.
This winter has been unusual in that we've been the recipient of a number of very heavy rain events in the last few weeks, in contrast to last year in which there were in contrast quite a large number of small rain events. My supposition is that the relatively warmer than usual Mediterranean waters are contributing to the intensity of the rainfall.
Tonight, a storm off to our northwest will receive an influx of colder, polar air and then drop southward, with the upper low passing just to our east late tonight and tomorrow afternoon. Cold air at lower levels flowing in behind the storms should allow for a transition to mixed rain and snow on Tuesday in the higher elevations.
Based on our high-resolution WRF forecast (with credit to the Department of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University, Givat Ram, Jerusalem) rain and snow is expected in the area of Safed late tonight and Tuesday morning, with rain and snow in Jerusalem from late morning into Tuesday night. Snow will also fall on the Hermon and Golan tonight into tomorrow, with up to about 30 cm in the highest elevations of the Hermon and about 5 cm lower down to (Neve Ativ). Elsewhere, a very light, slushy accumulation is possible on colder car surfaces in the mountains of the Galilee and mountain tops of Jerusalem. Because temperatures will be near freezing, motorists should be aware that roads could be slippery.
Turning our attention to Friday's storm, it is clear at this time that the temperatures should be colder (at the surface) than with Tuesday's storm, and that the cold should last from Friday morning into late Shabbat. The GEFS is showing a large spike in the precipitation rate as the the cold air arrives during Friday morning, Hence, an accumulating snow is more likely than with Tuesday's storm during the morning and early afternoon hours.
The big question mark is still whether the 500 mb trough will pass over us or to our east. At the moment, the models are forecasting the upper level trough to pass just to our east, but yesterday, it was forecast to pass quite a ways further to our eaat. There is still also a disagreement between the European Ensemble and the American Ensemble, and much of this disagreement revolves around the strength of low pressure over Spain, which will influence the trough, ridge wavelength. The closer it passes to us, the more snow will likely accumulate.
For a great summary from one of the members of our Israel Winter Weather group, please see:
https://www.facebook.com/JerusalemWF/videos/194776091677307/
The temperatures should moderate after Friday's storm as we head into February.
Barry Lynn
Highlights:
1) Very cold Tuesday with rain mixing with snow in the higher elevations of the Galilee and Jerusalem Mountains
2) Otherwise, 25 to 50 mm of precipitation generally along the coastal cities, and the central mountains.
3) Strong "River" flows in the northern Jordan Valley, and Negev.
This winter has been unusual in that we've been the recipient of a number of very heavy rain events in the last few weeks, in contrast to last year in which there were in contrast quite a large number of small rain events. My supposition is that the relatively warmer than usual Mediterranean waters are contributing to the intensity of the rainfall.
Tonight, a storm off to our northwest will receive an influx of colder, polar air and then drop southward, with the upper low passing just to our east late tonight and tomorrow afternoon. Cold air at lower levels flowing in behind the storms should allow for a transition to mixed rain and snow on Tuesday in the higher elevations.
Based on our high-resolution WRF forecast (with credit to the Department of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University, Givat Ram, Jerusalem) rain and snow is expected in the area of Safed late tonight and Tuesday morning, with rain and snow in Jerusalem from late morning into Tuesday night. Snow will also fall on the Hermon and Golan tonight into tomorrow, with up to about 30 cm in the highest elevations of the Hermon and about 5 cm lower down to (Neve Ativ). Elsewhere, a very light, slushy accumulation is possible on colder car surfaces in the mountains of the Galilee and mountain tops of Jerusalem. Because temperatures will be near freezing, motorists should be aware that roads could be slippery.
Turning our attention to Friday's storm, it is clear at this time that the temperatures should be colder (at the surface) than with Tuesday's storm, and that the cold should last from Friday morning into late Shabbat. The GEFS is showing a large spike in the precipitation rate as the the cold air arrives during Friday morning, Hence, an accumulating snow is more likely than with Tuesday's storm during the morning and early afternoon hours.
The big question mark is still whether the 500 mb trough will pass over us or to our east. At the moment, the models are forecasting the upper level trough to pass just to our east, but yesterday, it was forecast to pass quite a ways further to our eaat. There is still also a disagreement between the European Ensemble and the American Ensemble, and much of this disagreement revolves around the strength of low pressure over Spain, which will influence the trough, ridge wavelength. The closer it passes to us, the more snow will likely accumulate.
For a great summary from one of the members of our Israel Winter Weather group, please see:
https://www.facebook.com/JerusalemWF/videos/194776091677307/
The temperatures should moderate after Friday's storm as we head into February.
Barry Lynn
Saturday, January 18, 2020
Weather It Is (Cold Week Coming)
Good Evening:
Highlights:
1) A very cold week.
2) A very wet week.
3) A very windy week.
4) Some mid-week snow followed by a very snowy end of the week?
Erev Shabbat I was accosted by a Beit Knesset Member who told me not to write anything about snow. He was worried about the "evil-eye" being cast on the potential upcoming snowy weather. This evening, my son mentioned that whenever I mention that it might snow, but need to check the weather maps after Shabbat, the snow goes away.
So, you could imagine my surprise when the weather maps and global forecast ensemble (GEFS) graphs suggested that the upcoming week is going to be cold, and the end of the week quite possibly even colder.
But, first, I must mention that today's storm really exceeded expectations, with more than 25 mm of rain being measured here in Efrat. Moreover, it was a very quiet storm, without a crash of thunder or the hammering of hail -- it just rained, and rained, and kept on raining. It shows that one can accomplish quite a lot with consistent, but quiet effort, and with great modesty.
In the meantime, we've been watching a disagreement between the European and American models, with the American model indicating a cold mid-week storm, while the European model indicating a late week storm. In the end, we may have the best of both worlds, with a cold (if not wet-snow) on Tuesday evening/night in the higher elevations of the northern and central mountains, and an even colder and possible frigid late week storm.
Of course, it rarely snows in Jerusalem, but we'll still mention the reasons why it might snow and then the reasons it might not. Regarding Tuesday's evening storm, the temperatures at 850, 700, and 500 mb will all be cold enough for snow. However, precipitation is not forecast (at this time) to be very heavy and overall the height of the 0 degrees Celsius level looks to be a bit high for an accumulating snow. This means that snow would be mixed with rain and probably melt when it reached the ground. For Friday's storm, temperatures in the lower atmosphere and height of the 0 degree Celsius level should be much lower. A potential problem, though, is that the center of the upper level trough (500 mb) might slide by just to our east, which would limit snow amounts from a potentially larger and more significant storm.
Based on the last GEFS update, the chance of a significant snow at the end of the week is 25%.
Stay tuned; Shavua Tov,
Barry Lynn
Highlights:
1) A very cold week.
2) A very wet week.
3) A very windy week.
4) Some mid-week snow followed by a very snowy end of the week?
Erev Shabbat I was accosted by a Beit Knesset Member who told me not to write anything about snow. He was worried about the "evil-eye" being cast on the potential upcoming snowy weather. This evening, my son mentioned that whenever I mention that it might snow, but need to check the weather maps after Shabbat, the snow goes away.
So, you could imagine my surprise when the weather maps and global forecast ensemble (GEFS) graphs suggested that the upcoming week is going to be cold, and the end of the week quite possibly even colder.
But, first, I must mention that today's storm really exceeded expectations, with more than 25 mm of rain being measured here in Efrat. Moreover, it was a very quiet storm, without a crash of thunder or the hammering of hail -- it just rained, and rained, and kept on raining. It shows that one can accomplish quite a lot with consistent, but quiet effort, and with great modesty.
In the meantime, we've been watching a disagreement between the European and American models, with the American model indicating a cold mid-week storm, while the European model indicating a late week storm. In the end, we may have the best of both worlds, with a cold (if not wet-snow) on Tuesday evening/night in the higher elevations of the northern and central mountains, and an even colder and possible frigid late week storm.
Of course, it rarely snows in Jerusalem, but we'll still mention the reasons why it might snow and then the reasons it might not. Regarding Tuesday's evening storm, the temperatures at 850, 700, and 500 mb will all be cold enough for snow. However, precipitation is not forecast (at this time) to be very heavy and overall the height of the 0 degrees Celsius level looks to be a bit high for an accumulating snow. This means that snow would be mixed with rain and probably melt when it reached the ground. For Friday's storm, temperatures in the lower atmosphere and height of the 0 degree Celsius level should be much lower. A potential problem, though, is that the center of the upper level trough (500 mb) might slide by just to our east, which would limit snow amounts from a potentially larger and more significant storm.
Based on the last GEFS update, the chance of a significant snow at the end of the week is 25%.
Stay tuned; Shavua Tov,
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, January 15, 2020
Weather It Is (The Return)
Good Afternoon:
So much has happened weatherwise and elsewise in the world that I feel rather tuckered out. I suppose then that the recent spell of mild weather is a welcome relief (especially to those that are in the process of drying out).
Yet, after an unusually mild afternoon tomorrow, winter is poised to make a return. Low pressure will arrive from the southeast, and then receive an injection of colder air from the direction of Turkey as we move into Shabbat. After showers on Shabbat, Sunday into Tuesday morning looks to see more showers and periods of rain. Temperatures at upper levels will not be nearly as cold as within our last storm so we don't expect heavy thunderstorms.
After a short break, another storm should threaten us towards the end of next week. There is a chance of wet snow in Jerusalem and an accumulating snow in Gush Etzion. There is still plenty of cold air "locked" up over the polar regions as the AO and NAO remain positive and are forecast to remain positive for the foreseeable future. We might be able to tap into this cold air if a strong enough ridge builds into Western Europe. Time will tell, and we'll have to wait a few days to know if a chance will become something to more seriously talk about.
Time will also tell what will be the results of the investigation of the Air Force into recent F-16 flood related damages. As quoted in the Times of Israel (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/air-force-commander-orders-probe-into-costly-flood-damage-to-fighter-jets/)
“[Norkin] said the event was unbecoming of the [air] force and believed it was important to investigation, learn lessons and implement them in order to prevent similar events in the future."
The article claimed that the Air Force was aware that rain was expected, and a number of aircraft had been moved to "higher ground," but these aircraft were not. Yet, information from our Total Lightning Network would have provided ample warning to the Air Force to pay heed to the weather. Storms first developed around 2:15 IST off the southeast coast, northwest of Ashkelon, arrived over land around 2:45 IST, and the lightning network indicated that storms then moved southeastward over land until 4:30 IST (an example is shown below). Severe flooding occurring in Ashdod was one result (https://www.ynetnews.com/article/HJC007DVxU). Otherwise, thirteen million gallons of water flooded the airforce base hanger between 5 and 5:30 in the morning (https://theaviationgeekclub.com/photos-show-israeli-f-16-c-d-fighter-jets-damaged-in-heavy-rainstorm-iaf-admits-mistake-in-not-moving-jets-to-safety-during-flood-at-hatzor-air-base/). Before proceeding too far to look for the reason why the planes were damaged and tens of millions of repairs needed, the investigators might simply ask why they don't use Total Lightning Data to monitor dangerous storms.
So much has happened weatherwise and elsewise in the world that I feel rather tuckered out. I suppose then that the recent spell of mild weather is a welcome relief (especially to those that are in the process of drying out).
Yet, after an unusually mild afternoon tomorrow, winter is poised to make a return. Low pressure will arrive from the southeast, and then receive an injection of colder air from the direction of Turkey as we move into Shabbat. After showers on Shabbat, Sunday into Tuesday morning looks to see more showers and periods of rain. Temperatures at upper levels will not be nearly as cold as within our last storm so we don't expect heavy thunderstorms.
After a short break, another storm should threaten us towards the end of next week. There is a chance of wet snow in Jerusalem and an accumulating snow in Gush Etzion. There is still plenty of cold air "locked" up over the polar regions as the AO and NAO remain positive and are forecast to remain positive for the foreseeable future. We might be able to tap into this cold air if a strong enough ridge builds into Western Europe. Time will tell, and we'll have to wait a few days to know if a chance will become something to more seriously talk about.
Time will also tell what will be the results of the investigation of the Air Force into recent F-16 flood related damages. As quoted in the Times of Israel (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/air-force-commander-orders-probe-into-costly-flood-damage-to-fighter-jets/)
“[Norkin] said the event was unbecoming of the [air] force and believed it was important to investigation, learn lessons and implement them in order to prevent similar events in the future."
Barry Lynn
Sunday, January 5, 2020
Weather It Is (The Roses Are Still Blooming)
Good Late Morning:
The roses out front are still blooming. They missed the message that winter has arrived.
Or, perhaps they didn't read the minutes of our weather group ("Israel Winter Weather"). We meet in secret every few days to determine the what's going to be both this coming week and next.
Recriminations have been flying back and forth among those that live in Tel-Aviv and its local government, after 75 mm of rain fell in a couple of hours, overwhelming the sewer and drainage system. Perhaps recriminations are justified as the weather forecast was "spot on" in predicting the rain amounts during this last storm both over coastal cities and in the central mountains. I am beginning to believe that last year's update to the GFS has enabled an improvement in our own high-resolution forecasts that are themselves based on the GFS (global) data.
Yet, like last time, we've are again discussing model forecast differences between the GFS (American model) and the ECMWF (European Model). Both are again forecasting a rather significant storm to affect our area Wednesday into Thursday night, again with heavy rain, strong winds, and thunderstorms. Both are forecasting this storm to dive to our west, south of Crete. This means that the cold air originally associated with the storm will again moderately warm as it heads our way over the Mediterranean Sea. Rain mixed with snow is possible, but only at very high elevations.
The model differences concern what will follow the next storm. Twenty percent of the GFS ensemble members (from the GEFS) suggest that two storms will follow our next. As of last time, this most likely depends on how quickly are next storm progresses eastward away from us. If it moves too fast -- as forecast by the European Models, then the next injection of cold air from the polar jet stream will pass by to our east. If not, we could see our first snow.
It's easy to just ask: "what will the weather be?" without accounting for uncertainty in our knowledge of the current state of the atmosphere (especially in far northern areas where our coldest storms originate). There is also model forecast uncertainty associated with physical algorithms that describe the land, sea, and atmosphere, as well as uncertainty associated with chaotic behavior caused by the need to solve complex non-linear equations using finite differencing on a computer that necessitates round-off error (at the limit of precision of the computer).
The result is that we can usually see several days into the future, but beyond this time frame the forecast becomes much more uncertain. In fact, the only time I remember a winter storm that was apparent in the forecasts even 10-12 days in advance was the very significant snowstorm of December 2013. In this case, the circulation patterns that led to this storm were so strong and well defined that they were resolvable by the forecasts even so far in advance.
People actually live with uncertainty in their lives all the time. We make many decisions based on hunches or optimism. However, given the chance they will seek certainty even when it will cause potentially personal harm. One such case is the decision to be vaccinated or not. The vaccine against measles, etc, is very effective and complications are very rare. (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190307131455.htm; https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html; (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/vaccines/mmr-vaccine.html). Yet, around 140,000 unvaccinated children died of measles in 2018 (https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/05-12-2019-more-than-140-000-die-from-measles-as-cases-surge-worldwide). Unfortunately, there are "supposedly" reputable organizations that suggest otherwise, (https://www.globalresearch.ca/measles-vaccines-kill-more-people-than-measles-cdc-data-proves/5429736), overlooking the fact that the reason there have been relatively few deaths from measles (percentage wise) is the high rate of vaccination!
Recently, the Time of Israel noted that this flu season is especially virulent and deadly (https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-low-on-flu-shots-as-seriously-ill-set-to-overtake-past-2-years-combined/). In fact, my father remembers his Aunt telling him about the Spanish Flu, which killed more people than those that died in World War I. Folks would get on the trolley as living beings, but be dead before they got off. One reader of the Times article commented that the strains of flu change too quickly for the vaccines to be effective, and suggested to readers that they instead get a good night sleep and eat plenty of garlic.
While it is true that each year's Flu vaccine is based in part on guesswork (for which strains will be present the coming winter), important studies have documented the effectiveness of the Flu vaccine as well (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-benefits.htm). Overall, it's not as effective as the standard vaccines (like for the measles), but it can prevent the flu or enable one's body to better fight it off, reducing the terrible Flu symptoms associated with the Flu viruses.
So, save yourself and those you will infect from being a victim of the Flu: get vaccinated!
Sincerely and Happy New Year,
Barry Lynn
The roses out front are still blooming. They missed the message that winter has arrived.
Or, perhaps they didn't read the minutes of our weather group ("Israel Winter Weather"). We meet in secret every few days to determine the what's going to be both this coming week and next.
Recriminations have been flying back and forth among those that live in Tel-Aviv and its local government, after 75 mm of rain fell in a couple of hours, overwhelming the sewer and drainage system. Perhaps recriminations are justified as the weather forecast was "spot on" in predicting the rain amounts during this last storm both over coastal cities and in the central mountains. I am beginning to believe that last year's update to the GFS has enabled an improvement in our own high-resolution forecasts that are themselves based on the GFS (global) data.
Yet, like last time, we've are again discussing model forecast differences between the GFS (American model) and the ECMWF (European Model). Both are again forecasting a rather significant storm to affect our area Wednesday into Thursday night, again with heavy rain, strong winds, and thunderstorms. Both are forecasting this storm to dive to our west, south of Crete. This means that the cold air originally associated with the storm will again moderately warm as it heads our way over the Mediterranean Sea. Rain mixed with snow is possible, but only at very high elevations.
The model differences concern what will follow the next storm. Twenty percent of the GFS ensemble members (from the GEFS) suggest that two storms will follow our next. As of last time, this most likely depends on how quickly are next storm progresses eastward away from us. If it moves too fast -- as forecast by the European Models, then the next injection of cold air from the polar jet stream will pass by to our east. If not, we could see our first snow.
It's easy to just ask: "what will the weather be?" without accounting for uncertainty in our knowledge of the current state of the atmosphere (especially in far northern areas where our coldest storms originate). There is also model forecast uncertainty associated with physical algorithms that describe the land, sea, and atmosphere, as well as uncertainty associated with chaotic behavior caused by the need to solve complex non-linear equations using finite differencing on a computer that necessitates round-off error (at the limit of precision of the computer).
The result is that we can usually see several days into the future, but beyond this time frame the forecast becomes much more uncertain. In fact, the only time I remember a winter storm that was apparent in the forecasts even 10-12 days in advance was the very significant snowstorm of December 2013. In this case, the circulation patterns that led to this storm were so strong and well defined that they were resolvable by the forecasts even so far in advance.
People actually live with uncertainty in their lives all the time. We make many decisions based on hunches or optimism. However, given the chance they will seek certainty even when it will cause potentially personal harm. One such case is the decision to be vaccinated or not. The vaccine against measles, etc, is very effective and complications are very rare. (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190307131455.htm; https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html; (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/vaccines/mmr-vaccine.html). Yet, around 140,000 unvaccinated children died of measles in 2018 (https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/05-12-2019-more-than-140-000-die-from-measles-as-cases-surge-worldwide). Unfortunately, there are "supposedly" reputable organizations that suggest otherwise, (https://www.globalresearch.ca/measles-vaccines-kill-more-people-than-measles-cdc-data-proves/5429736), overlooking the fact that the reason there have been relatively few deaths from measles (percentage wise) is the high rate of vaccination!
Recently, the Time of Israel noted that this flu season is especially virulent and deadly (https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-low-on-flu-shots-as-seriously-ill-set-to-overtake-past-2-years-combined/). In fact, my father remembers his Aunt telling him about the Spanish Flu, which killed more people than those that died in World War I. Folks would get on the trolley as living beings, but be dead before they got off. One reader of the Times article commented that the strains of flu change too quickly for the vaccines to be effective, and suggested to readers that they instead get a good night sleep and eat plenty of garlic.
While it is true that each year's Flu vaccine is based in part on guesswork (for which strains will be present the coming winter), important studies have documented the effectiveness of the Flu vaccine as well (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-benefits.htm). Overall, it's not as effective as the standard vaccines (like for the measles), but it can prevent the flu or enable one's body to better fight it off, reducing the terrible Flu symptoms associated with the Flu viruses.
So, save yourself and those you will infect from being a victim of the Flu: get vaccinated!
Sincerely and Happy New Year,
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, January 1, 2020
Weather It Is (The Roses Are Still Blooming, But)
Good Late Morning:
For the last few days, our weather group ("Israel Winter Weather") has been discussing model forecast differences between the GFS (American model) and the ECMWF (European Model). Both are forecasting a rather significant storm to affect our area Friday into Sunday, with heavy rain, strong winds, and thunderstorms. Both are forecasting this storm to dive to our west, south of Crete. This means that the cold air originally associated with the storm will moderately warm as it heads our way over the Mediterranean Sea. Hence, even though temperatures in the lower atmosphere (850 mb) will be close to zero at the higher elevations, only snow mixed with rain is possible (but not likely).
The model differences concern the positioning of the next weather system to follow next week. The ECMWF has the storm moving in from our north while the GFS had the storm again taking a more westerly track. Each of these models were generally supported by their ensemble counterparts.
Our group identified the forecast disparities as being due to differences in the continued development of this weekend's storm as it passes east of us. If it maintains its strength, it would help to direct the next storm further eastward to arrive more directly from the north. If not, we would have a repeat of this weekend's rain storm.
Regardless, both model indicate the possibility of another significant storm next week, but there is far from any certainty of just how cold it will get.
It's easy to just ask: "what will the weather be?" without accounting for uncertainty in our knowledge of the current state of the atmosphere (especially in far northern areas where our coldest storms originate). There is also model forecast uncertainty associated with physical algorithms that describe the land, sea, and atmosphere, as well as uncertainty associated with chaotic behavior caused by the need to solve complex non-linear equations using finite differencing on a computer that necessitates round-off error (at the limit of precision of the computer).
The result is that we can usually see several days into the future, but beyond this time frame the forecast becomes much more uncertain. In fact, the only time I remember a winter storm that was apparent in the forecasts even 10-12 days in advance was the very significant snowstorm of December 2013. In this case, the circulation patterns that led to this storm were so strong and well defined that they were resolvable by the forecasts even so far in advance.
People actually live with uncertainty in their lives all the time. We make many decisions based on hunches or optimism. However, given the chance they will seek certainty even when it will cause potentially personal harm. One such case is the decision to be vaccinated or not. The vaccine against measles, etc, is very effective and complications are very rare. (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190307131455.htm; https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html; (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/vaccines/mmr-vaccine.html). Yet, around 140,000 unvaccinated children died of measles in 2018 (https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/05-12-2019-more-than-140-000-die-from-measles-as-cases-surge-worldwide). Unfortunately, there are "supposedly" reputable organizations that suggest otherwise, (https://www.globalresearch.ca/measles-vaccines-kill-more-people-than-measles-cdc-data-proves/5429736), overlooking the fact that the reason there have been relatively few deaths from measles (percentage wise) is the high rate of vaccination!
Recently, the Time of Israel noted that this flu season is especially virulent and deadly (https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-low-on-flu-shots-as-seriously-ill-set-to-overtake-past-2-years-combined/). In fact, my father remembers his Aunt telling him about the Spanish Flu, which killed more people than those that died in World War I. Folks would get on the trolley as living beings, but be dead before they got off. One reader of the Times article commented that the strains of flu change too quickly for the vaccines to be effective, and suggested to readers that they instead get a good night sleep and eat plenty of garlic. While it is true that each year's Flu vaccine is based in part on guesswork (for which strains will be present the coming winter), important studies have documented the effectiveness of the Flu vaccine as well (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-benefits.htm).
So, save yourself and those you will infect from being a victim of the Flu: get vaccinated!
Sincerely and Happy New Year,
Barry Lynn
For the last few days, our weather group ("Israel Winter Weather") has been discussing model forecast differences between the GFS (American model) and the ECMWF (European Model). Both are forecasting a rather significant storm to affect our area Friday into Sunday, with heavy rain, strong winds, and thunderstorms. Both are forecasting this storm to dive to our west, south of Crete. This means that the cold air originally associated with the storm will moderately warm as it heads our way over the Mediterranean Sea. Hence, even though temperatures in the lower atmosphere (850 mb) will be close to zero at the higher elevations, only snow mixed with rain is possible (but not likely).
The model differences concern the positioning of the next weather system to follow next week. The ECMWF has the storm moving in from our north while the GFS had the storm again taking a more westerly track. Each of these models were generally supported by their ensemble counterparts.
Our group identified the forecast disparities as being due to differences in the continued development of this weekend's storm as it passes east of us. If it maintains its strength, it would help to direct the next storm further eastward to arrive more directly from the north. If not, we would have a repeat of this weekend's rain storm.
Regardless, both model indicate the possibility of another significant storm next week, but there is far from any certainty of just how cold it will get.
It's easy to just ask: "what will the weather be?" without accounting for uncertainty in our knowledge of the current state of the atmosphere (especially in far northern areas where our coldest storms originate). There is also model forecast uncertainty associated with physical algorithms that describe the land, sea, and atmosphere, as well as uncertainty associated with chaotic behavior caused by the need to solve complex non-linear equations using finite differencing on a computer that necessitates round-off error (at the limit of precision of the computer).
The result is that we can usually see several days into the future, but beyond this time frame the forecast becomes much more uncertain. In fact, the only time I remember a winter storm that was apparent in the forecasts even 10-12 days in advance was the very significant snowstorm of December 2013. In this case, the circulation patterns that led to this storm were so strong and well defined that they were resolvable by the forecasts even so far in advance.
People actually live with uncertainty in their lives all the time. We make many decisions based on hunches or optimism. However, given the chance they will seek certainty even when it will cause potentially personal harm. One such case is the decision to be vaccinated or not. The vaccine against measles, etc, is very effective and complications are very rare. (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190307131455.htm; https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html; (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/vaccines/mmr-vaccine.html). Yet, around 140,000 unvaccinated children died of measles in 2018 (https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/05-12-2019-more-than-140-000-die-from-measles-as-cases-surge-worldwide). Unfortunately, there are "supposedly" reputable organizations that suggest otherwise, (https://www.globalresearch.ca/measles-vaccines-kill-more-people-than-measles-cdc-data-proves/5429736), overlooking the fact that the reason there have been relatively few deaths from measles (percentage wise) is the high rate of vaccination!
Recently, the Time of Israel noted that this flu season is especially virulent and deadly (https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-low-on-flu-shots-as-seriously-ill-set-to-overtake-past-2-years-combined/). In fact, my father remembers his Aunt telling him about the Spanish Flu, which killed more people than those that died in World War I. Folks would get on the trolley as living beings, but be dead before they got off. One reader of the Times article commented that the strains of flu change too quickly for the vaccines to be effective, and suggested to readers that they instead get a good night sleep and eat plenty of garlic. While it is true that each year's Flu vaccine is based in part on guesswork (for which strains will be present the coming winter), important studies have documented the effectiveness of the Flu vaccine as well (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-benefits.htm).
So, save yourself and those you will infect from being a victim of the Flu: get vaccinated!
Sincerely and Happy New Year,
Barry Lynn
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