Good Afternoon:
The weather this summer has been hot, the weather has been cool, and sometimes in between. It even rained in spots one day. All this happened while I was on "vacation." Really, I was on a vacation from writing my blog. Hence, I am not to blame for what has transpired.
The next two weeks look to be a bit of a transition. It's going to stay on the hot side, of course -- it's still summer. However, temperatures at 500 mb will be falling off a bit, while humidities rise. This should lead to some high cloudiness.
As for heavy rains during Sukkot, as reported in the news. The CFS V2 does not show any indication of enhanced rain amounts in the next few months. In fact, it's remarkable for the fact that it shows normal conditions. This means, generally, a chance of showers during Sukkot, but nothing unusual. Moreover the APEC Climate Center website shows below normal precipitation. This based on multiple model simulations.
Actually, though, I have much greater confidence in forecasts for the next couple of weeks. You can see these on our web site, or more generally here.
It's good to be back home, but I am actually in quarantine, even though I tested negative for the Coronavirus before and after my return. The reason: my wife needed a vacation so she sent me to visit my parents in the USA. During this time, the Israeli government decided that people arriving from the US could bring dangerous Coronavirus variants to Israel -- so they sent us all into quarantine. Yet, I came from a state with 20 persons per 100,000 sick last week, while Israel has 60 persons per 100,000. It seems to me that my fellow Israeli citizens should have gone into quarantine when I returned, and not vice-versa.
Being in quarantine, but without any symptoms, presents some dilemmas. For instance, while I was away, my wife took the garbage. While I can't say that I take the garbage all the time, I do try to contribute whenever I can (meaning, the garbage needs to go out). Since I haven't tested positive, I thought that maybe I could sneak out, quickly drop the garbage in the bin, and then run back to the house.
However, we soon realized that this would be dangerous at best, if not foolish. Where do you think the police wait to catch quarantine breakers? They wait at the garbage, of course -- waiting to catch the husband taking out the garbage types who should be in quarantine.
During the last few months, I've had multiple exchanges with various people who have contrary beliefs about the Coronavirus and vaccines. Here, you'll find out some not so "useful" information -- information that contains -- sometimes a grain of truth but really leads the viewer to false and misleading conclusions. The first gem is that the Coronavirus is simply a run of the mill cold virus (time: 3:04). The next is that a high percentage don't get this virus, have some pre-immunity (4:05), those who died would have died anyway (4:45), exercise prevents (cures) all (4:58), topped off by it and its variants are fading away (5:16)! Later on this doctor recommends against pregnant women getting vaccinated.
Does this doctor have any credibility, even with the white coat? Two months ago, Israel had 200 active cases; this month there are 50,000! His cited "pre-immunity" doesn't seem to help very much in preventing recent infections. The Israel Health Ministry reported that there are 151.5 out of 100,000 people in serious condition of those unvaccinated, 45 per 100,000 people who received one shot, and just 19.3 out of 100,000 people who have received both shots. As to the idea that those people would have died anyway, estimates of excess worldwide deaths are as high as 5 million plus (with the US making up about 10% of this numbers; Israel about 5000). Just today, our Prime Minister reported that of the 179 people who recently died, 178 were unvaccinated. Those who choose not to vaccinate are simply asking to become seriously ill (or die).
Rather than being vaccinated, some people say they prefer to treat this illness using a combination of Zinc, HCQ (a malaria drug), and Azithromycin. The first two medicines are supposed to reduce the viral load in the body -- aiding recovery, while the third acts against accompanying infections. However, not all studies are positive. Moreover, someone taking this medicine means that the person caught the virus, possibly endangers someone else, who either does not have access to these medicines and/or is in a higher risk group. In the meantime, further study is needed. The efficacy of vaccines, though, is not in doubt.
