Saturday, March 31, 2018

Weather It Is (Nice Weather For Now)

Good Evening:

Today was a spectacular weather day.  The sky was a deep blue and the fields were bright with an early spring green.

I don't think that anyone will complain about the weather during the holiday.  Temperatures will continue to moderate upwards into the 20s in many locations, as winds blow lightly from the west and south.

However, some tropical moisture may bring some tropical showers at the end of the week.  By tropical moisture, I mean that moisture will arrive at middle and upper levels, passing not over the sea, but Africa from the Atlantic ocean.

Looking further ahead into the week after Pesach, there is some divergence in the model forecasts.  There is about a 70% chance the dry and pleasant weather will continue, but there is a 30% chance of a chilly rain.

I was surprised that the rainy weather of Friday didn't damp down the protests along the Gazan fence. You have to really hand it to the Hamas leadership.  They're brilliant.  They take materials sent for building hospitals, sewage treatment plants, and new housing, and they use it to build tunnels (and missiles).  Then, they use the electricity we supply to power their machines that do the building, and provide light under ground.  Then, they tell the world that their people are suffering from a lack basic infrastructure, clean water etc.  We feel badly for them, so we (and to some extent other countries) send them more supplies to relief the "suffering" of the Gazan people.

But, here's where they're really smart.  Having driven the Gazan economy to ruin, and with only "enough" weapons to support an army of 25,000, they've driven their people to such desperation that they're willing to die at the border between Gaza and Israel. They've sold them on the "right of return," without mentioning that most of the people who live in Gaza never lived anywhere else in what was called "Palestine" (now Israel) before the local Arab populations took that name for themselves.

It sounds like a sob story, but the Gazan people are simply being used by Hamas as another weapon in their war to destroy the State of Israel.  They should be reminded that we've been around a lot longer than they have (actually, this week we tell the story of our Exodus from Egypt several thousand years ago!), that in every generation there arises someone who wishes to destroy us, and that we're still here.  Thank God for that!

Have a nice holiday,

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Weather It Is (Rainy and Windy)

Good Evening:

A strong early spring storm will impact our area from Thursday into Friday evening. The storm will bring strong winds and periods of rain, especially Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.  The minimum pressure of this storm will be the lowest of the winter/spring season, reaching close to 1000 mb or even below.

It will be quite chilly on Friday and Pesech Eve, and even the first day of Pesach.  It will warm up slowly through the first part of the week.  It will also turn dry.  However, the end of the holiday might see some showers.

Hag Samaech,

Barry Lynn

Saturday, March 24, 2018

Weather It Is (Changes)

Good Afternoon:

It's been a month since our last rain (the end of February), and it's been warm as well.

In contrast, the eastern United States has seen four Nor'easters -- lots of snow and chilly temperatures, while western Europe and even as far south as Italy have seen unusual cold and snow as well.  There are winters where only one such Nor'easter occurs.

Some might blame this on the weather pattern -- and they would be correct.

The North Atlantic Oscillation has been strongly negative since early March (see
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao.shtml).  The result has been that the eastern US as well as parts of northern/western Europe have been unusually cold.  Both have been strongly impacted by what we call "troughs" or lower  heights associated with wave-like lines of constant pressure.  The colder the air, the more dense it is, and the lower the heights.  In contrast, we've been under the influence of a ridge (higher heights) and warmer temperatures more similar to Africa than Europe.

Well, the good news is that the NAO is moving into a positive phase, at least for the next week or so. The result was already felt today.  Yesterday, the temperatures reached 30 C here in Efrat (Jerusalem), while today the high was 13 Celcius.

Boy did I hear it from the crowd.  Almost everyone who descended the stairs to our living room said that I said it would be hot again today.  I never said any such thing.  This begs the question: if my own family doesn't know the weather, then I really wonder if anyone (at all) is listening to me.

I pondered this rather discouraging situation while walking our dog in a very light rain -- who actually prefers chilly weather over hot weather.  Then, someone who I know uses (or at least used to use) our weather site said: "Was this rain forecast?"  I answered: "well, if it wasn't, it should have been."

I realized that I had just learned the key to success in life: don't admit mistakes and be positive about the future.

Here's some positive news: Our chilly weather of Shabbat and early this week will be followed again by above normal temperatures.  This will be accompanied by periods of dust, especially over the south. However, Wednesday should see another trough approach.  This one should have plenty of cold air and moisture to trigger heavy showers on Wednesday (tropical showers to start), but then as the cold air entrenches itself there should be periods of rain lasting (possibly) in Erev Pesach (Friday evening).  The time for the heaviest rain is most likely on Thursday.  Considering how nice it is to see our green fields and hillsides, we could use the rain! Also, our lack of rain in March means that we're  at about 60% of normal for the year in the Jerusalem area.  So, we have some catching up to do.

Yet, as the days of Pesach progress, the weather should become warmer and drier -- perfect for being outdoors.

While I am not sure what other life lessons I've learned from being a meteorologist, I have learned a few things about our country.

Israel is a place where you bump into people you never see.
This makes you realize how small it is and you wonder why the powers to be want us to give half our country away.

Israel's a place where someone who asks if your car is for sale, and you say no, he then wishes you years of enjoyment and care free use.  Israel is full of people with a good attitude about life.

Patience comes to those that wait.  In Israel, you wait for the winter to come. You wait for the flowers and trees to bloom, and for the dust to lift.  You wait at the beach for that wave that will really bring a thrill.

Finally, a wise person knows now what he knew then.  I think that we've all become wise to the intentions of the Palestinian leadership -- they don't want to share our land -- they want it all. With that knowledge going forward, we can be sure to take care to guard what we have, and remember that we came to this land to live in it, not to give it away!

Barry Lynn

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Weather It Is (Too, Too Hot)

Good Evening:

I remember a time in the not so distant past.  At that time, it was a land far, far away (from me) -- Israel. I heard through the grapevine that my relatives in Israel were sweltering during the Passover Holiday.  I didn't pay much attention, as I was enjoying a typical winter somewhere on the east coast of the United States.

True, our warmth will become a chill Tuesday and Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday the temperatures will soar, and on Friday my guess is that the windows will be closed and the air conditioners will be working overtime.

The heat should arrive on very strong southerly wind ahead of strong low pressure arriving from the west by northwest.  This means summertime temperatures on Friday, and extremely high dust concentrations.   It won't be pleasant, but it should turn windy and temperatures should plummet into Shabbat, where they'll remain until Sunday.

Hopefully, the bees will have time to pollinate the Cherry tree before the windy and chillier weather arrives.  They need to get-up early has our warm winter has led to an earlier than usual blooming.

Unfortunately, this will be a moisture "starved" storm, so there may not be any rain to wash away the dust.

Of course, this means that the large holes in the ground in Gaza will be also be covered in dust and sand. These are actually the remains of tunnels that were recently destroyed by the Israel Defense Forces.  In response, the leadership of Hamas said: "Na-Na," that was an old tunnel anyway.  One has the feeling that we're dealing with children -- children that rule Gaza like the animal rulers of George Orwell's "Animal Farm." The amazing thing is that we feed the animals.  We send food, building materials, and electricity to make sure that the animals are well fed while they build more tunnels.

I still can't figure out. We supply them with the wherewithal to build tunnels to attack us. We also treat their injured and sick in our hospitals.

Perhaps we live on the farm?

Barry Lynn


Thursday, March 8, 2018

Weather It Is (Dust, No Dust)

Good Evening:

Yesterday (Wednesday) was an absolutely amazing day -- if you live by the weather.  It was a quite mild 20+ (Celcius) degrees.  The sun was comfortably warm, the humidity was low, and the wind even lower.  Contrast that with today, which was almost hot, with strong winds and the air full of Sinai dust.  In fact, our dust forecast maps showed "red" values. It's been a while since I've seen such high values.  Fortunately, the storm has passed, and so has the dust.

Springtime is often a time for strong winds, especially in our area.  The desert areas over Africa and Saudia Arabia are heating up, while areas to our north (and the sea) remain relatively cool. The contrast is producing strong pressure gradients and hence our winds.  I've actually lost two "Kipot" (head coverings) in the last week.  They've simply flown off the top of my head.  I am hoping that they're not lost, but have found a home on the top of someone else's head.  My wife suggest that I considering selling weather paraphernalia to match the weather -- in this case single use Kipot (perhaps made of paper) -- like paper plates (but decorative).  These would be perfect for the season, and environmentally friendly too.

The weather map shows that the next couple of days and the next week will be predominately under the influence of Mediterranean low pressure originating from Europe.  This means cooler temperatures and a chance of showers (at the beginning and end of the week).  In fact the end of next week should be as chilly as its been in quite a while.  Of course, as soon as the jackets come out they'll probably go in (the closet) the week after (which may be quite warm).

It seems like we've had all types of weather this winter -- rain, wind, dust, and even a few (or was that several) snowflakes.  It's a great combination, indicating that things have really changed for the better here.  In fact, things (especially the availability of consumer goods) have been much better for many years. When I was first married, my wife mentioned even then that you could find just about anything you needed at the store or want in the supermarket. Having come from the US, I remarked that you couldn't find blueberries.

About five minutes later, there was a knock at the door.  A young man had arrived from the Golan and was selling blueberries.  Since then, I've been able to purchase frozen blueberries, and this winter saw the arrival of blueberries from Chile.  They come in small packages, though, and are quite expensive.

This was the reason that I moved today about 900 kg of mixed volanic rock and peatmoss to my backyard.  I've been experimenting with growing blueberries in pots (blueberries need acidic soil and the soil in Gush Etzion (actually, anywhere outside the Golan) is basic -- so pots are required). I've grown plants from seed -- and have demonstrated that the idea of the "survival of the fittest" applies to blueberries, too.  Out of about 5000 seeds I have 10+ plants (and even picked blueberries last year from two of them).

But, in case you're not the gardening type, you'll be glad to know that private research groups have also been experimenting with growing small fruits from America (etc) and have been providing young blueberry (and raspberry) bushes for enterprising individuals to grow and sell their fruits to local stores.

So, we may (or is that will?) really have blueberries in Israel in the next year or so.  We may also have a new Prime Minister.  I'll bet the blueberries come first.

Barry Lynn