Sunday, May 31, 2015

Weather It Is (Rational or Not)

Good Morning:

Men are rational beings.  And so it was I found myself mightily confused last night. First I dreamed that I bicycled north to Jerusalem and was so thrilled to be on my bicycle again that I signed up for a trip with an organized group.  However, this was sort of a contest.  The goal was to bicycle again to Jerusalem, but in the southerly direction. Along the way, I met people I knew from Israel, but (strangely) the way (roads) looked a lot like the way to New York City from my old home.  None of this made any sense.  On the other hand, leaving ones home and moving to Israel is not a rational decision, but a decision of belief.

Of course, Israel has a lot to recommend it (for an example, it is a country filled with people of different cultures, looks, and even religion, making for a very interesting place to live sociologically. There is thousands of years of history (mostly Jewish), and my favourite: (they say) 13 different climate zones.  It even has a thriving economy (although we need to recognize the contributions of diaspora Jewry).  But, when one realises that for two-thousand years we were in exile,  but no longer, one has to ask yourself: do you believe there's a reason for this and might now be a good time to take advantage of this opportunity!

Of course, living here is not always easy, although much easier than years ago when the economy was run like a social experiment, wealth was concentrated even more in the hands of the few, and wars were made with conventional armies, rather than missiles.  Life here can be a little bit like the weather, which can vary here from day to day quite extremely.  In fact, yesterday I closed the window because of a cold breeze, while a couple of days before I closed it because of the heat.

Yet, the next couple of weeks look to warm up a bit, but not too much, and then there is a greater chance than not that nothing will change at all. The cooler air will stay to our north, and the hot air will stay to our south and east. It's called stability, and it's something us rational men can appreciate.

And so we come to the climax of our story.  It is well known that the women-folk want their husbands to help around the house.  Rationally, one thinks this means to "help-me" with those things I need to do.  Yet, when I found myself in the kitchen putting away dishes, the second youngest daughter says to me: "what are you doing here, this is my kitchen!"  It is also well known that wives will ask (tell) their husbands to do things with the kids (take them out).  Yet, when I found myself headed out for the weekly baseball game, the question was: "where are you going and for how long?"

I asked my oldest daughter what I should do so that I can stay out of trouble.  Her response: "stand in one place until your told what to do!"

Now, you can see why I had this strange dream.  My poor rational self was trying to make sense of conflicting ideas/instructions -- something I could never do no matter how hard I tried to make it so.  Quite simply: you can't go north to Jerusalem and south to Jerusalem, unless you realise that all roads lead to Jerusalem eventually, and this is where we should be (and despite its complexities, we should all strive to be happily married, and take life in stride because its where we should be, too).

Barry Lynn

Friday, May 29, 2015

Weather It Is (Whiplash)

Good Afternoon:

The temperature is  a cool 20 C. The winds are 23 km/h making for a chill in the air.  This morning it was 14 C, compared to 37 C on Wednesday. A bit of whiplash?

A trough over the eastern Mediterranean and high pressure over Europe will combine to bring cool northerly winds into Sunday.

Then, the "winter" hold on our weather will weaken and low pressure over the Saudi desert will slowly reassert itself.  However, the high pressure area will still be present over central Europe and the two conflicting weather systems will mean that we're left in a bit of stand-off.  Not summer, not winter, but not exactly spring either.

In any case, it will be good soccer playing. I encourage all Israelis living over the old green-line (armistice line) to get out with their soccer ball and play.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Weather It Is (High Heat Update)

Good Morning:

It's 31 Celsius here in Efrat and 36 C at Ben Gurion Airport (and its only about 10:30 A.M).  We're predicting a high of almost 44 C at the airport (110 F), 43 Celsius (109 F) in Tel-Avis, and 37 C in the Old City (99 F).  High concentrations of dust will arrive towards evening and last into the tomorrow's morning, mid-afternoon.  The combination of high-heat, low humidity, and dust will make for extremely dangerous conditions.  The best course of action is to stay indoors, drink a lot (but not just water), and keep the windows closed. It's not a time for hiking or strenuous out door activities.

The wind will also increase later this afternoon and evening. The heat, dryness, and wind will lead to elevated risk of large wildfires.  So, it is better to not light any outdoor (cooking) fires today or drop a cigarette or match.

Tomorrow will bring much cooler temperatures and a chance of light rain, mostly in the north.

There is a 30% chance that high-heat will return mid-next week, but a better chance of just late spring warmth.

Last night the phone rang.  Later the Wife told me that she was a little surprised that I'm not like the anemometer on the weather station (spinning at all hours).  You see, she was in a predicament.  Someone of high importance (of course we all are...) needed to know the weather this morning and I wasn't available to put the kettle on the stove.  (I was actually sleeping, having worked all day in a pressure-cooker environment.)  The Wife, though, didn't feel she could tell "him" that, so she did the next best thing: she looked at the www.weather-it-is-israel.com web site.

I have to commend her for stepping up, taking responsibility, and be willing to let it all hang out, besides taking a stand while sitting in the hot seat.  So, yes, I do sleep, and that's why it (should) take two to be a couple.

Barry Lynn
P.S. We hope to convert (as well as redesign) the web site in Hebrew in the next few months.


Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Weather It Is (A Question Asked/Answered).

Q. If I understand your explanation, the southeasterly winds that spiked the temperature gauge we experienced as Sharav actually originated in Africa, flowed due east to the Arabian Peninsula, and then came north, northeast to Israel?   Yaakov 

A. I am not sure that they made such a circuitous route, but the hot air originated in Africa and will eventually flow from the Arabian Peninsula.

However, looking at the wide view maps on the site shows that the high pressure area over Africa expands to meet the low pressure area over the Peninsula.  The hot air is then dragged northward by the approaching low pressure area that will bring the dust as well.

Weather It Is (Danger!!!! Extreme-Extreme-Heat/Dust Warning)

Good Afternoon:

Temperatures will rocket upwards tomorrow morning, and when the day reaches its climax there may be those who will think that being in the exhaust of a jet engine would be a welcome alternative.

Temperatures will arrive in the upper 30s in the central mountains (close to 100 F), and in the mid 40s in the coastal plain. Temperatures in our major coastal cities will range from the low to mid 40s, between 102 and 110 Fahrenheit).  

To make matters worse, the circulation system that will bring an end to our rocket-engine heat will bring terribly high concentrations of dust as late afternoon/evening arrives.  The combination of heat and dust as well as pollutants from cars and industry will bring some of the worst air quality we've experienced, perhaps in decades.   THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION!!!

Strong low pressure moving across the southern Mediterranean will bring the dust (although an end to our intensely hot weather) as the night progresses.  Thursday looks to start out dusty, but the dust will be moving southward (through the desert areas) and out of the country by mid-day or so.

Contrary to common opinion, temperatures will not be hottest in the desert areas (like Arad) nor in Eilat, where some tropical clouds will hold temperatures down a bit. Still temperatures will approach 40 C in these areas (100 F).

The delightfully cool weather should last into Sunday.

No hot weather next week is currently "planned."

Barry Lynn

Monday, May 25, 2015

Weather It Is (Extreme Heat)

Good Morning:

Today's heat will be but a prelude to Wednesday and Thursday extreme-extremes.

High pressure will expand northward from Africa while low pressure pushes northwest from Saudia Arabia. Combined, they will bring us some of the worst heat in decades.  In fact, temperatures should be two to three degree higher than they were in last week's heat. While there is still some spread in the global ensemble forecast, it is only a matter of a degree and not effect.

High temperatures should be in the upper 30s on Wednesday in the central mountains while down in the coastal plain temperatures will be in the low 40s (and even reach as much as 105 F).  Temperatures in the Jordan and Dead Sea Valleys will be in the mid 40s.  In contrast, the city of Eilat will probably have temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, in response to "cooling" sea breezes.

The high temperatures should peak on Wednesday, and conditions in the coastal cities could become unbearable as night approaches, humidities rise a bit, and temperature remain in the low to mid 30s.

Thursday will start a cooling trend, but heat advisories will still be needed in many places, and even though temperatures may not be extreme--extreme, they will still be dangerously hot.

By Friday and Shabbat, temperatures should be comfortable, if not feel a bit chilly.

They say: "if you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen." One wonders, then, why so many men brave the kitchen, especially before holidays when the pressure cooker is really going.

I learned something interesting the other day.  It turns out that men bring their work skills to the kitchen. For instance, scientists will try their hand at baking while lawyers will do the cooking (i.e., things that need slathering rather than measuring). Of course, the picture of our firemen at the grill is only too familiar.

This must be very frustrating to the women-folk who must feel that they are dealing - at times -- with children, but of the kind that never grow up.  After all, we all know that we tolerate our children's learning curve because their curve is headed up.  In contrast, the learning curve of a husband is pretty much flat, and there isn't much wives can do about it.

And, so it goes: the husband wants to be helpful -- and his cakes may even taste and smell better than the stuff he makes in the chemistry lab -- but in the end: he's in the way (as in "your in my way.").

On a positive note: I learned how to make the best Yogurt in the country (through experimentation) and I now know that putting honey in bread batter makes them heavy (more like honey cake than bread).

Barry Lynn




Thursday, May 21, 2015

Weather It Is (An Uneven and Sweaty Ride)

Good Afternoon:

The weather is certainly pleasant.  It's 23 C here at noon.  There's also little wind.

Yet, not all is rosy.  Temperatures on the whole are headed down.  True, daytime temperatures are warmer than nighttime temperatures because of the sun, but Friday's high will be 5 or 6 degrees cooler than today's high and Shabbat morning might even have a chill.

But then the weather will change.

From midday on Shabbat through the end of next week temperatures will begin to climb.  While they won't necessarily steadily climb -- and there could be some tropical clouds along the way -- climb they will.

As high pressure over northern Africa combines with low pressure over the desert to our southeast, hot air will creep northward, and then creep some more.  The "Blob" didn't move very fast, but when consumed its victims they knew.

Basically, we're going to get hot, and then we're going to get hotter, and the high temperatures have a 40% chance of exceeding this week's unusually hot temperatures.

If so, extra, extra care will need to be taken to protect against sun and heat stroke.  So, be aware and keep tabs of the latest weather forecast.

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Weather It Is (There Goes The Heat)

Good Afternoon:

We're getting to the end of our current heat wave.

Today -- as forecast -- it was actually warmer in the Jerusalem mountains than it was in the coastal plain.  The high temperatures in the central mountains were in the middle 30s, but only the lower 30s down in the coastal plain (including Ben-Gurion Airport).

The reason for the slightly cooler temperatures in the coastal plain was the approach of a cool front making its way in-land from off-shore.  The winds switched from southeasterly along the coast  to westerlies this mid-morning. Here, inland in the central mountains, the winds were still easterly, and our temperatures warmed all the way into the mid-30s.  Here in Efrat it was 35 C, while in Jerusalem it was 36 C (at 4 P.M, the day's high so far).

The cool front will arrive this evening in the central mountains and make temperatures drop by about 15 C.  Humidities will rise behind the front from just about 10% to about 50% as winds change from east to west.  The temperature in the lower atmosphere will drop  continuously from tonight until Friday morning, dropping about 5 degrees per day.  It will be windy, but not too windy.  The temperatures at 500 mb will be dropping a bit, so there could be some clouds.

Yet, Friday will bring a warming trend, and temperatures may rise about 5 C per day over the following next few days.  The Shavuot holiday could bring temperatures back into the 30s again.

There is, however, still a several degree uncertainty in the temperatures for Shavuat.  Following Shavuat, there is a 15% chance that temperatures will rise even further, while there is a small chance that temperatures will be unseasonably cool.  Most likely, temperatures will be seasonable, but the possibility of very-extreme heat should be considered.

If there is a return of extreme (or even very-extreme) heat, it will require greater attention to those who are more likely to suffer from heat stress, and increase the potential of a severe wildfire.

Barry Lynn/Abie Seif

Monday, May 18, 2015

Weather It Is (A Good Day To Pant and to Celebrate)

Good Afternoon:

It's a good day (for a dog) to pant.  Actually, it's an even better day to go to the beach or simply stay in doors. On the other hand, since our dog is staying in doors, so perhaps this is the best choice.

By far, the hottest weather of the season, and it is a scorcher!  It's 33 C here in Efrat (in the central mountains), but 40 C down in the coastal plain at Ben-Gurion.

Fortunately, it's quite dry with very low humidity.

Tomorrow, a cool front will approach and bring maximum temperatures down to the low 30s.  Because it will take time for the front to move west to east across the country (yes, it does take time to move even a relatively small distance as the crow flies), it should actually be hotter in Jerusalem than in the coastal areas.

Yet, the front will pass and temperatures will actually fall to below seasonable temperatures by Friday, barely reaching the low 20s.

From Shabbat onwards, we'll begin a climb to more summer-like weather, so by this time next week we may be looking at extreme temperatures again.  At this time, we see quite a large potential temperature spread in the global ensemble from mid-next week onwards, so we can't say whether the heat will last or if we'll just return to more seasonable temperatures.

Tonight there is an event in Efrat sponsored by the Or Etzion Boy's school. It's music, dancing, stories.  It's a celebration by the children of the school for all of us -- to rejoice in our presence in the land of Israel and our success, with the hope that this is just a step on the way to continued blessings in our land.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Weather It Is (High Heat/Smell Like a Dog)

Good Morning:

Highlight: Hot temperatures in the desert and valley areas today.  Extreme heat for coastal areas and other major cities on Monday.

With a change in wind direction has come a change in our temperatures.  I noticed that the high temperature here in Efrat was 26 C yesterday (Shabbat).  This might have been a tad warm for some, but for others it was a welcome change.

The warm winds will bring high heat by Monday to the central plains, coastal sections, valleys, northern Hills.  The central mountains may have their highest temperatures as Tuesday just prior to the passage of the front.  Temperatures right on the coast may be in the 20s with high humidity, but in the 30s (just inland), and even upper 30s in many cities a few kilometers inland.

However, by Tuesday afternoon/evening a weak storm moving across the Mediterranean sea will bring a cool front through the area and some refreshing breezes from the north. Temperatures should call off by almost 15 degrees by Friday.

Looking further ahead, we don't see any clear indication for next week.  Temperatures could remain on the cool side, or even return to more summer-like warmth.  However, they are more likely to be just seasonably warm.

In any case, today's weather should be fairly fine for today's parades and celebrations of "Yom Yerushalyim."  I remember coming here years ago and going to the Kotel for the first time. It never once entered my mind to doubt that the Jewish people had come home -- not just to their land but to their city.

Today will turn into tomorrow, and with summer warmth comes a reminder of life's important lessons -- we learn from "Man's best friend" -- the dog. These are : i) Lie down with the dogs, get up with the dogs; ii) sleep like a dog, iii) bark like a dog, eat like a dog, and  iv) smell like a dog. Of course, "the dog days of summer" is probably the reason the last one caught my attention when my wife commented about the end result of my morning Shabbat walk -- that I needed to refresh afterwards.  When I pointed out that I planned to do so, she remarked that it wouldn't really help.  In plain words: I'd smell like a dog.

This made me think.  What smells worse than a wet dog?  Pretty much, nothing else.  You can pour water on a dog, and he/she can be as clean as a whistle, but they'll just smell worse.  Unless, you use doggy shampoo.  In fact, there is nothing more pleasing/pleasant than the fresh smell of a dog after a shower with a good doggy shampoo -- sort of like that new baby smell we all love.

And, thus, I had the solution to my problems -- a bath with doggy shampoo, or at least a little freshening up with a few dabs here or there.  Like honey or a rose, I've never seen her smile quite so.

Yom Yerushalyim Samaech!

Barry Lynn




Thursday, May 14, 2015

Weather It Is (Deserted Streets)

Good Evening:

Is it the "Day After Tomorrow?"'  Were it 13 Fahrenheit  in May, instead of 13 degrees Celsius, we might have reason for worry.  Instead, its just an unusually chilly day, and with the winter clothes already in the closet -- it's just to "cold" to be outside!

In fact, it's so cold my wife asked me to turn off the air-conditioner -- outside.

While we shiver in our shirtsleeves, changes are a-foot.  The trough of cold air will push back to the west as a ridge builds north from Africa and the desert low over Saudia Arabia nudges our way.

The result will be about a 15 C warm up over the next week, and when the next trough from the west slips in, it won't be nearly as cold.  So, it will be shirtsleeve weather again.

Looking further out, the atmosphere seems to be shifting into its summer mode, with warmer temperatures making their appearance at higher levels, in association with the summer monsoon over India.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Weather It Is (Brrr, Brrr...)

Good Evening:

Some say the weather has been really nice.  Some ask about summer, as if it is an abstract concept.

In the meantime, the "Brrr" will win out as temperatures drop off by about 7 C over the next couple of days.  One might be forgiven if one thought that we're headed into winter and not spring.

In fact, temperatures will fall below zero 3000 m above the surface, which is one step from more wintertime temperatures at this height layer.  By summertime, these temperatures may warm up by 20 C and put a "cap" (a stable layer) on any summertime clouds.

Yet, Shabbat wil see the start of a warming trend, and by mid-next week it could a tad hot (as temperatures warm by 15 to 20 C).

But, then temperatures will drop off again, and we'll feel a bit like were freefalling on a rollercoaster.

Is summer an abstract concept?  For the moment it seems that way!

Barry Lynn

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Weather It Is (Those Wavy Streams of Air)

Good Afternoon:

**We should also add that late tomorrow afternoon/ evening will bring elevated levels of dust from Tel-Aviv across to Jerusalem and south over the desert areas.  The dust will be advected away towards morning and mostly dissipate over the south late Tuesday.**

Waves of cold in the atmosphere will be affecting our weather during the next several days, and possibly into next week.  These wavy patterns will bring mid-level (700 mb) humidity, and temperatures at 700 mb will even drop below 0 C by the end of the week. Of course, it's not snow weather, as when temperatures drop to -10 C or below.

The effects of the first wave of low pressure will be felt tomorrow afternoon.  Rain is most likely along the northern coast and into the Hermon mountains.  Because of the general instability of the atmosphere, it's possible that these storms will produce thunder and lightning, and there can even be a thundershower in the center as well (but chances are low).

The greater chance for thundershowers in the center will be on Thursday, when temperatures at 500 mb will cool below -15 C and another push of low and mid-level humidity arrives.

Early next week it should warm up for a couple of days, but there is a 30% chance that another low pressure area will bring clouds and cooler temperatures.

Barry Lynn

Friday, May 8, 2015

Weather It Is (A Bit Cooler)

Good Morning:

"I organize things and you mess them up," says the Wife (to me).  I am not really sure what I can do about this -- since someone has to make the Shabbat Chalah, the desert, and the blintzes, let alone Sunday's Lasagna, and Thursday evening's Pizza.

What men don't realize is that when push comes to shove -- with the exception of a few -- they don't contribute very much to home life.  True, there are people like my father whose talents for finance spilled over it other facets of our family life.  For instance, he would fix a pipe, string electrical wire.  He even made chicken in a bag (the paper kind) --- and hence, he didn't make a mess.  He didn't leave his skills at the front door.

You see men go off to work thinking they're quite important, and they never stop to realize that for many women the work place is both the office and the home.  Just imagine if men messed up their work place the same way they mess up their homes?    Can you understand why it might irk some member(s) of the household?

I'm sitting here on a beautiful Friday morning and there is not a cloud in the sky.  However, this will likely change as high pressure ridges into central Europe and low pressure digs down from eastern Europe.  Yet, there isn't much "umph" with this spring storm. It will get cooler and there is a chance of a light shower as the trough establishes itself from Shabbat into late next week. Nothing more and probably not any measurable rain to speak of.

It's springtime and it hardly ever rains here.  In future blogs, I hope to discuss a bit more about the hows and whys of our weather patterns.

No hot weather is in sight for at least the next two weeks.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Weather It Is (What Was and What Will Be)

Good Morning:

While it is true that I married my wife -- and the reasons are many -- did I mention that it didn't hurt that she was well respected in the town?  I was proud to add my name -- "Lynn" to the Romano name in Efrat.  But, then it happened.

It started when she became "Geveret" Lynn, instead of Geveret Romano.  It didn't help that I kept my last name -- although Barry Romano is a better stage-name than Barry Lynn.  Anyway, she soon began to question the wisdom of her decision, and things only became worse when a few years later I started writing a weather blog.

I started the blog because I couldn't find a decent (or rather accurate) weather forecast in Israel.  Of course, I could only wave my hands at the weather maps that always seemed to indicate snow or some storm that never materialised.

Our forecasts took a turn for the better when I bought my first "super-computer" and "Weather It Is" started a couple years later (in 2006).  We started making weather forecasts on our own -- and  we started using a grid-resolution that enabled us to see the many details in the weather patterns that affect Israel. For instance, did you know that Israel has 13 different weather climates, including a sea-shore and high mountains?  You probably did, but all of these variations in altitude and vegetation (or lack there of) make for some very interesting and very hard to forecast weather.   Moreover, Israel is at the nexus of different weather regimes, and we can go from summer to winter in just a day.

And, so it continued.  By adding new technology (and utilising improvements in publicly available data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction) our forecasts got better and better, and now we're know as the place to go for accurate weather forecasts.  And the wife?  She still wonders if she made the right decision, but she is proud to be the wife of Efrat's (really Israel's) weatherman.

We'll be making some changes in the Weather It Is (Israel) site in order to ensure (God-Willing) the continuation of these weather pages.

We're also looking for new investment in order to expand our forecasts services overseas. In addition to our "FlashForecast" and "Best-Forecast" services, we forecast wildfires using technology that enables non-interactions between the wildfire and weather.

In the meantime, enjoy the beautiful Lag-B'Omer weather.  After a couple of really nice days the atmosphere will be cooling off a bit (both at lower and mid-to-upper levels), so there will some clouds and possibly some localised showers (including a rumble of thunder).

Barry Lynn

Monday, May 4, 2015

Weather It Is (People Are Complaining)

Good Morning:

People are complaining.   They say it's not summer, but more like winter.

I say it's spring, even if a cool one.

In any case, I take complaints seriously and I have rebooted our weather forecast computers several times -- apparently to no avail.

In fact, tomorrow will be cooler than today (and today is already pretty cool).

When we look ahead during the next week we see only a slight warming, and then the weather pattern may turn a bit stormy.  We're getting indications that some cold air might filter southward sometime mid-next week.  Considering that there is some very warm tropical air to our south and that the sea is spring-like warm, we could be in for some tropical showers (with thunder and lightning).

Please feel free to write. As I said, we do what we can.

Barry Lynn

Friday, May 1, 2015

Weather It Is (Sprung)

Good Afternoon:

We all must feel that spring has sprung. I would say that we'd be right in thinking so.

Even tomorrow's slight chill shouldn't change our minds, either.  The chill will be courtesy of a stiff northwesterly flow of air.

However, high pressure will begin to build over northern Africa and it will circulate warmer air our way starting Sunday.  At the same time, low pressure over the Saudi desert will expand to its northwest, further contributing to our spring warmth.

Looking further ahead into very late next week, early the following week, we see the possibility that a bulge in the jet stream may direct a bit of late winter coolness our way -- with the chance of showers as well.

Nothing to be too concerned about in the next week, other than whether our PM will succeed to form the next government -- or not.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn