Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Weather It Is Winter Storm Update #5)

Snow has fallen in Gush Etzion (and northern Israel).  In areas such as Efrat, it has accumulated on cars, sidewalks, and streets, but temperatures are just above freezing so that the snow accumulation is quite slushy. Elsewhere, I'd expect to hear (from you) that snow did accumulate.

After a brief lull later tonight, the mixed rain and snow should return in the morning and then transition to all snow sometime in the afternoon.  The snow should accumulate first as a slush, but at night into Friday there should be a heavy accumulation of snow (that is, something white and soft, that you can throw).  There's still some uncertainty in the forecast of temperatures, so optimistically there will be a lot of snow, less optimistically there will be accumulating snow.

After the snow finishes late Friday or Saturday morning there may be a transition to rain and warmer temperatures.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Correcton: Winter Storm Update #4)

Our winter storm has arrived and is potentially a very dangerous storm.  Moreover, the cold air should arrive in the central part of the country between 2 and 5 P.M, making for a slippery and icy ride home as heavy rain transitions to snow and ice. 

Temperatures will be warm to start, and then cool off rapidly -- so it is hard to judge how much of an accumulation will occur with the rain to ice-to-snow, but because the precipitation should come down fast an accumulation is likely.

Tonight, the cold air at upper levels will moderate towards morning and the precipitation should transition to mixed snow and rain, and then rain either late tonight or tomorrow (Thursday).

However, the ensemble forecast is predicting that the strongest winter blast will occur late Thursday into Shabbat.  Again, the ensemble is predicting a drop in temperatures to the coldest values we've seen in years.  The cold weather will be accompanied by snow (the real white stuff), if this forecast holds up. 

Updates should follow, God willing

(I believe that there is an error in the display of the forecasts (at least late this night).  See the forecasts for Jerusalem and Efrat below, which indicate heavy wet snow in the mid-to-late afternoon.

Barry Lynn

Efrat

 

Jerusalem
Wed
Feb 29 2012 - 12:00:00
Sprinkles
9.7 °C
5.16 49. % Strong SW
0.38
0.62
9.87
Wed
Feb 29 2012 - 15:00:00
Heavy Wet-Snow-Rain
4.1 °C
-2.16 87. % Strong NW
9.29
9.91
19.16
Wed
Feb 29 2012 - 18:00:00
Light Wet-Snow-Rain
3.8 °C
-1.89 85. % Strong W
1.44
11.35
20.6
Wed
Feb 29 2012 - 21:00:00
Light Wet-Snow-Rain
3.3 °C
-3.04 90. % Strong W
2.06
13.41
22.66
Thu
Mar 01 2012 - 00:00:00
Light Rain
2.9 °C
-4.20 87. % Gale W
1.43
14.84
24.09
Thu
Mar 01 2012 - 03:00:00
Moderate Wet-Snow-Rain
3.0 °C
-4.20 46. % Gale SW
3.57
18.41
27.66
Thu
Mar 01 2012 - 06:00:00
Moderate Rain
3.1 °C
-3.80 50. % Strong SW
3.16
21.57
30.82