Good Morning:
Today Wednesday and tomorrow Thursday could see strong thunderstorms in areas that are prone to flooding, including the Dead Sea Basin and Arava/Negev.
Our forecast model's resolution has been degraded (due to budgetary considerations), so it might not show these strong storms. One can access more accurate forecast maps here: https://ims.gov.il/he/ModelMapPanel
You can also find my Blog discussions here: https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/author/barry-h-lynn/
Good morning: Temperatures today are quite pleasant. During the coming week, temperatures should rise by several degrees, reaching the mid 30s C in many locations. Friday and Shabbat will likely be the hottest days of the week. Temperatures are likely to remain in the mid 30s for the first few days of the following week. Shabbat Shalom.
Good evening:
Just nice weather is on tap for our area during the next couple of weeks. Not cool and not exceptionally hot.
It hasn't really rained very much since March, which means that we never really had any springtime tropical systems (e.g., Red Sea Troughs). We had lots of dust, but just not much moisture to go along with it.
There is a big vote in the Knesset this evening. Rather than working with the government to pass laws that it favors, the Likud has decided that it will burn the house down instead, as debate begins over the reenactment of a law that provides citizen rights to Israelis living in "Area C" of Judea and Samaria.
Only the Likud can save us from the Likud.
Be well,
Next time, I might write to you from Jordan,
Barry Lynn
Good afternoon:
The weather tomorrow (Tuesday) will be downright nasty -- extremely hot and dusty. Because winds in the lower atmosphere will blow from the northeast and/or east, conditions will be ideal for the heat to extend from coastal areas eastward to the hottest locations within the Dead Sea Basin.
The heat will be short-lived, though. The pressure system bringing our hot weather will move to our east and be replaced by a trough of cooler weather. In fact, moisture building in the lower atmosphere could bring some showers on Wednesday (Yom Zikoron) and Thursday (Yom Ha'Azmahut). Temperatures will not be of the beach variety, but parks might be enjoyable so long as one brings a windbreaker (and any sprinkles remain scattered about).
The cool weather should last into mid-Shabbat, and then hotter weather returns early next week, only to be replaced again by cooler weather towards the end of the week.
Otherwise, it's been a tough few days. First, my wife complained about the weather -- consistency is important in life she told me. And, the weather (by implication, meaning me) has been hardly consistent. Then, I dreamed I was visiting my home town ahead of a forecast snowstorm. In the end, the forecast was off, and it snowed just a bit, and no matter how hard I tried to photograph it, I just couldn't make it seem like a lot of snow.
Of course, I realize that we're about to head into a heatwave, but my biggest fear as a forecaster is not predicting how hot it will be, but predicting how much snow will fall. So, when my wife -- so to speak -- put me in my place, it led to a nighttime of weather related nightmares.
It's not just my professional life that causes me trouble, but speaking Hebrew is still not my forte. When we were married, she gave me 5 years to learn Hebrew, well, and she's still waiting. The other day she sent me to buy a toilet seat. In Hebrew, the name is a "Asla" -- אסלה). I don't have much of an ear -- so my wife tells me, and I always thought the word for toilet seat was "Azlan" (lazy person) -- עצלן). So, when I arrived at the store and asked for an Azlan, the clerk looked at me a bit strangely. First, he said they don't have any of those, and if I needed an Azlan I might find one in the park. I couldn't figure out why he said that so I asked if they had a "Sherutim" (a bathroom). I thought, I'll just show him. But, he was having none of that and his response was Azlanim generally don't give good service, so why bother. Finally, I convinced him to call home to ask my wife. From what I could tell, she said that while I might be Azlan, what we needed was an Asla.
The good news is that I was able to install such a device in our bathroom, and that it even closes by itself. So, I might -- at times -- be lazy, but I can still be useful.
Barry Lynn
Good afternoon:
It's cold in Siberia and it's going to be cold here, too. Of course, cold is relative. On the other hand, for a week in mid-March, you can imagine that folks would wonder where is Spring?
Well, the point is that it's cold in Siberia and there's a pipeline of cold air headed our way. Temperatures will drop further today in the layer of atmosphere just above the sunlight heated planetary boundary layer, and then further Monday night and Tuesday. In fact, the temperatures will be more typical the coldest of any of January's days (see Tuesday's minimum temperature forecast map).
At the same time, an upper level trough of (cold) low pressure will nose it's way southwestward into northwest Syria. The counterclockwise flow of cold air around the low pressure trough will bring moisture on shore, while the extreme cold keeps much of it as snow in the higher elevations of Jerusalem and surrounding areas. Right now, our model shows snow late Monday night in Tuesday afternoon, with the best time for an accumulation before too late Monday morning (the cloud-shielded midday sun will probably act to melt the snow). Depending on just how far west the upper trough makes it, will determine if the snow continues into the evening, and accumulates some more.
Right now, we're right on the edge temperature wise, in terms of an accumulation. What isn't in doubt is the cold. Darn those mittens and hats, and make sure your jacket buttons are all accounted for.
Barry Lynn
Good evening:
We'll be on the edge of an intense storm situated to our north. Cold air sweeping around the storm will bring us a real chill Thursday and Friday, with a bit of rain as well.
This storm was forecast several days back to bring a prolonged period of cold and precipitation, but as time evolved, the forecast became less cold and less rainy. Still, Thursday will be quite windy in the late morning and afternoon . This will make for very cold wind chill temperatures.
Temperatures should rebound nicely early next week -- and then all bets are off. Or, perhaps all bets are on for a potential Purim snowstorm. As noted by our "Israel Winter Weather" member, Yaakov Cantor, it did snow on Purim, but mostly during the colder decades of the 60s and 70s. It snowed the day before Purim in 1987.
The reason we mention this potential storm is that the global models are hinting towards an unusually cold period during the second week of March, which given that we're about 10 days off -- might mean something more than just some joke told during a Purim Spiel.
Of course, I won't tell my wife or my daughter. They've both turned against me. True, my wife pretended to like snow when we first met (and even built a small snowman with me), but either half of a new couple seems to like just about anything, so long as they really like the other half. But, with time, that infatuation for all things the other half wears off a bit, especially when it comes to cold and snowy days (for a person born near the beach).
What really gets me is that my oldest daughter -- the one who asked the question: "can it snow at Hanukkah time," and hence was directly responsible for bringing our massive December 2013 snowstorm to our mountainous terrain -- has also turned against me. On our morning walks all she speaks about are warm summer days and how she misses them.
So, here's my advice: before you marry, be sure to ask the important questions -- after all, kids take after their parents.
Be well, and stay tuned,
Barry Lynn
Good Evening:
Winter is returning after a short recess.
Very strong high pressure exists off the coast of Alaska, which is modifying the atmospheric circulation downstream, even as far as our area.
Due in part to uncertainty concerning the strength of the high pressure area, the global forecast models are not able to pin down what type of weather we're to expect next week. What we do know, though, is that next few days should be rather chilly, and a period of rain is expected on Friday into Shabbat. After a quick early week warm up, temperatures should fall off again, and an extended period of rain (or snow in the higher elevations) is likely.
Sincerely,
Barry Lynn
Good afternoon:
The weather pattern remains progressive and very amplified. Hence, as we move into Shabbat and next week, rain chances will increase, but so will the unusually chilly weather for this time of year. Rain chances should be highest during Shabbat, and then from about Thursday next week until early March.
The ensemble forecast from the European center shows greater amplification than the ensemble from the American forecasting center. Both forecast ensembles show a chance of snow late next week and then at the end of the month (February) and early March. These are just chances, though, and will most likely just be a cold rain.
Be well,
Barry Lynn
Good Afternoon:
Rainy and cold temperatures are on tap for us Friday and Shabbat.
Because of unusually cold temperatures aloft, there is the potential for thunderstorms, as well as hail.
Our forecast shows ice pellets in the Jerusalem mountain area (but no snow). Snow is expected in the Golan above about 1000 m.
Strong winds should accompany the trough (~50 km/h), and generally 25 to 50 mm of rain will fall from the center to the north. Lighter rains in the northern Negev could lead to flooding in these areas. Flooding is also expected in the Jordan Valley rivers and Dead Sea Basin.
Next, there is a hint of an even colder storm during the coming mid-week period. There is a 60% chance that temperatures will be near freezing in the higher elevations, but only a 20% chance of substantial precipitation.
Chilly, if not cold temperatures are forecast for the week beginning Sunday February 13th (the third week in February).
This prolonged period of more winter-like weather is associated with a persistent ridge of warmer air over western Europe or the far Eastern Atlantic Ocean. This encourages storminess associated with a trough of low pressure in the eastern Mediterranean. As mentioned in a previous blog, this ridge is associated with an unusually strong and persistent sub-surface Pacific El-Nino superimposed on a La-Nina. The resulting wave pattern favors stormy weather in our area, especially since El-Nino has "supercharged" the subtropical Jet Stream that passes over the Mediterranean. When that combines with the European polar jet, heavy rain storms occur. When arctic (Siberian) air interacts with the subtropical (or even both jet streams) snow occurs (as we experienced).
As to why this happens, here is one reference, and here is another.
Be well,
Barry Lynn
Good Afternoon:
Major Winter Storm to Affect the Country on Wednesday and Thursday.
Our high resolution forecast model shows that rain should transition to snow in the higher elevations of the central and northern mountains, including Jerusalem, Wednesday late afternoon. Our forecast maps show that snow should accumulate through the night into Thursday morning. Snow could be heavy at times and strong winds and snow will likely greatly reduce visibility. Many roads will probably be closed.
At the moment, we're forecasting several centimeters of snow generally in the Jerusalem area and between 10 and 20 cm in higher areas within and the mountains just to the north and to the south (Gush Etzion).
The cold weather should persist into Shabbat.
Winds will be very strong, probably greater than 60 km/h during the afternoon and nighttime hours. These winds could cause damage, so be sure to secure loose objects.
Overall, precipitation amounts Wednesday into Thursday should range from 50 to 75 mm generally from the center of the country to the north, where amounts will approach 100 mm again. Hence, urban flooding is possible, and river and stream flooding is likely from northern Israel to areas south of Mitzpe Ramon, and in the Jordan Valley.
Earlier, there were still some important differences in the positioning of the upper level trough between forecast centers. The NCEP GEFS brings the coldest air into our area, while the ECMWF's forecast model kept the trough a bit further to the north (as it phases with a Black Sea trough). The latest forecast from the European Center has shifted towards the colder forecasts of the GEFS. How much snow will fall will depend on where we end up in the probability distribution of atmospheric temperatures that make up these global ensemble forecasts, as there is still some variability within them. Still, overall, they indicate a significant snow event. Our high resolution WRF forecast is based on the NCEP GFS, which remains steadfast in bringing a major winter (snowy) storm into our area on Wednesday.
Barry Lynn
Shavua Tov:
This weeks looks like our biggest chance for a real snow -- on Thursday and now it turns out Shabbat.
But, first a rainy and possibly mixed rain and snow event on Tuesday, and then the big event to follow.
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/making-decisions-sometimes-the-right-one/
Good afternoon:
Extremely cold weather is on the way for the next couple of days. Moreover, next week should see continued unusually cold weather with a good chance of accumulating snow.
Global forecasts show temperatures will soon drop below freezing at 850 mb. Temperatures will also be unusually cold tonight at 700 mb. However, relatively warm 500 mb temperatures precludes cooling of the surface layer in the mountain areas through mixing and evaporative cooling, which is usually the mechanism for how temperatures reach freezing or below during snow events. Hence, during this possible snow event, any change over to snow will occur simply because the lower atmosphere is chilling to unusually cold levels.
Our latest high resolution WRF ensemble forecasts show that precipitation amounts should be highest over the mountain areas of Jerusalem during the late afternoon and nighttime hour. This is due to overrunning of moist sea air over cold lower atmospheric air. This should produce good snowflake growth. Total amounts of precipitation at the ground are likely exceeding 25 centimeters. Some of this precipitation is forecast to (not melt and) fall as snow, but how much is hard to tell.
These WRF forecasts are based on the Global Ensemble Forecast System, and these are actually running a bit warmer than the European forecast model. Hence, our forecasts may be underplaying the potential for an accumulating snow tonight.
Based on precipitation amounts, one might expect 10 cm generally to accumulate. However, surface cooling is the key and this depends on which of the global forecasts verifies. A degree warmer, and just mixed rain and snow. A degree or so colder, and several centimeters of accumulation in the higher elevations in and around Jerusalem.
The probability for precipitation is high and the probability for extreme cold is very high. Will they come together to produce accumulating snow? Like many things in life, no one really knows, not even your weatherman.
Be well,
Barry Lynn
Good Morning:
As discussed in our "Israel Winter Weather" group, forecast conditions have trended towards both snow and extreme cold. In areas that normally see snow during winter storms (including Jerusalem), this combination will create impassable driving conditions late Wednesday into Thursday, if not later where frozen precipitation remains on the roads. Snow accumulations are potentially between 10 and 20 cm in the Jerusalem area, depending on elevation. Lighter snow amounts are expected in the north.
In our previous storm, the forecast trended away (towards lower probability) as we approached the storm event, leaving us with just extreme cold. But, we've been watching this potential event for several days, and the trend towards a deeper 500 mb trough, and more prolonged and heavy precipitation has continued to this day (Tuesday).
Some important details: this storm should bring even colder weather than our last. More importantly, later in the afternoon and evening, high relative humidity in the "Dendritic" zone (-12 to -18 Celsius), will lead to rapid formation of large snowflakes. These snowflakes will form as moisture from the sea overruns the cold air at the surface and within the mountain ridges. The snow will accumulate quickly, closing roads, so travel will probably be impossible from late afternoon Wednesday into Thursday. The heaviest snow should fall in the late afternoon and evening hours. The deep freeze should last into Friday morning.
Be Safe,
Barry Lynn
Good morning:
Temperatures on Thursday are forecast to be 2 to 3 degrees Celsius lower than their lows Monday morning. This means lows around -2 to -4 C in higher locations, or in normally cooler locations in the mountains of Jerusalem and northern mountains. Coastal areas should be comparatively colder as well, with near freezing temperatures in inland areas.
Currently, the global forecast models GFS and EURO disagree on the type of weather to expect Wednesday. Both forecast heavy rain as the storm approaches Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Yet, they differ on the extent of the precipitation and how fast the cold enters our area on Wednesday. Based on the Euro, there is a likelihood of snow in the central mountains Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, followed by the freeze of Thursday, which should last into Friday. The GFS predicts less precipitation than the EURO, leaving us just extremely cold. Tomorrow's forecast from both models should hopefully indicate better agreement. Incidentally, the EURO was more accurate for our previous storm in terms of the location of the 500 mb trough. It was predicting a more easterly position for the 500 mb trough than the GFS, while now it predicts a more westerly position.
Next week, there is a signal in the global ensembles for a more prolonged storm, possibly snow.
Barry Lynn
Good afternoon:
The synoptic forcing of rainfall has ended, but not before many places received 100 mm or more.
Now, we're in store for a cold wave, which will probably last into next week, if not the end of next week.
There is some leftover 700 mb moisture, which might lead to light showers and light snow as the cold air rushes in this afternoon. Temperatures should remain near freezing in the highest elevations of the north and central mountains until Tuesday afternoon. Ice could form on the roads where standing water persists.
Late Wednesday, we're expecting another blast of frigidly cold air that should last until late Friday. There will be a deeper moisture layer with this cold air intrusion, so a period of snow is likely with this event on mountain peaks of the north and the central mountains of Jerusalem.
Next week, another storm is expected. Current indications are that this storm may bring a more substantial amount of snow, in addition to the unusually cold temperatures.
Barry Lynn
Good evening:
As a trough of low pressure dips southward from the polar jet stream, heavy rain should occur on Sunday.
The trough is forecast to move to our east Sunday evening, but as it does it will usher in the coldest air of the season (by far).
Synoptic forcing for precipitation should be cut off as the trough moves to our east Sunday afternoon. Normally, this would be the end of the precipitation. However, the extremely cold air passing over the sea could combine with lingering moisture in the middle of the atmosphere (at 700 mb) to produce snow squalls later Thursday afternoon and evening (with possible accumulation).
Temperatures will be close to or below freezing in many locations on Monday and Tuesday mornings. Similarly cold air should return on Thursday and Friday, and early next week there are stronger indications for our first snowstorm of the year (but the signal for this is just that, and we'll have to see if all the "pieces" fit together (the upper level trough needs to nose down not to our east -- as in the current situation -- but just to our west as the cold air sweeps in at the surface)).
Cold temperatures are forecast until or through the last week in January.
Shavua Tov,
Barry Lynn
Good Afternoon:
Extreme cold expected.
Most global forecasts indicate that the coldest air will remain to our north this Friday into Saturday, and then extremely cold air on Monday will lack upper level support for more than possible snow showers. Still, there should be plenty of moisture for heavy rains throughout the period, and snow on the Hermon.
However, there is still a 10% chance of snow in the Jerusalem mountains Friday night into Shabbat morning, and (as noted) extremely cold weather expected on Monday, with widespread frost. Unusually, cold weather is forecast to last until the end of the month.
Otherwise, expect 25 to 50 mm of rain generally, and even some rain over southern areas where flooding can occur. Locally 75 to 100 mm of precipitation is predicted over central coastal cities from Thursday night into early Monday.
Barry Lynn
Good Afternoon:
In the end, the most likely scenario is that the coldest air will remain to our north and east. In other words, a "bubble" of very cold air no longer is forecast to drift southward towards our area on Friday and Shabbat. The chance of this happening is less than 10%. Instead, it will rain generally across the area, except on the Hermon where there will be snow.
The next couple of weeks look to be chilly, with periodic chances of rain, if not snow.
Barry Lynn
Good morning:
A very interesting weather scenario is shaping up for the end of the week, Shabbat.
As pointed out by one of our Israel Winter Weather Group members, Jonathan Hoffman, there is disagreement between the European and American forecasts models, similar to the disagreement prior to our last snowstorm in February 2021. The European model keeps Siberian cold well to our north and east. The American model brings the Siberian trough quite far south, in order to interact with a low pressure over the southern Mediterranean. A more southerly incursion brings a higher probability of snow to our region.
Interestingly, only a few of the GEFS members agree with the Euro, while the rest are some combination of a trough that either heads too far west of us before moving eastward, or moves directly south over our area, bringing snow.
Last year, the snow "solution" won out. The next couple of days should clarify our most likely scenario.
Barry Lynn
Good afternoon:
While it has been periodically and sometimes extremely rainy, my outdoor plants are not sure whether to bust out to spring or hunker down for winter. After all, we had a relatively warm fall and December, and the temperature has rarely reached the low single digits here in the Jerusalem hills. So, why not?
Also, they've heard about global warming and are skeptical that winters in our part of the world just won't be, but will be something they'll tell their kid-seedlings about.
So, I showed them the charts and maps, and they came away -- even more confused. Our best guess is that there will be a trend towards much cooler weather after mid-next week and that the cooler, if not colder weather should last into the third, if not the end of the third week of January. Moreover, we could be moving into the type of weather pattern that brings Siberian cold southward, setting up our first real chance (but just a chance) of snow.
The reason that the forecast models are confused is because the atmosphere is acting contrary, in a sense, to the typical "La-Nina" Pacific Ocean forcing leads to a pattern of wet/cold and dry/warm locales. Here's a summary from one of our Israel Winter Weather group's Yaakov Consoor, who is a seasonal weather forecaster specialist.
Since late 2020, the ocean temperatures in the equatorial eastern-central Pacific have displayed a La Nina state, meaning water temperatures around 1C cooler than usual. However, the atmosphere has not always responded in kind. A La Nina-influenced weather pattern in winter tends to feature a weaker than usual southern (subtropical) jet stream from near Hawaii to the southern US, and from the Middle East to South Asia. This typically leads to drier conditions across the southern US, South and Southeast Asia, and to some degree across the Middle East as well.
Meanwhile, an El Nino-influenced weather pattern in winter is typically characterized by a stronger than usual southern jet stream from near Hawaii to the southern US, and from the Middle East to South Asia. This tends to be associated with wetter conditions across the southern US, south and Southeast Asia. In the Middle East, including Israel, wetter conditions are also characteristic of El Ninos, especially in the past 30 years and especially in the late fall and early winter (Nov and Dec).
The weather pattern has at times between late Oct and Nov, and especially since around Dec 10, turned more El Nino like across the globe with an enhanced Southern jet stream fueling severe flooding events along the West Coast of the US, as well as in Italy, Spain and the Middle East. Locally, here in Israel, we saw a dramatic turnaround from drought conditions in Oct and most of Nov to a wetter than usual trend that began in Dec, with the Dec 20-23 storm bringing more than 150 mm in large parts of the Sharon, Tel Aviv area, and western Shomron.
Will the El Nino-like pattern continue the rest of the winter? Climate models and past experience suggests this is highly unlikely. A turn toward a more typical La Nina pattern is likely late Jan into Feb. However, the longer range outlook beyond Jan 20 is still rather uncertain at this point.
So while we pray the second half of the rainy season will “deliver the goods”, especially in a Shmita (sabbatical) year, the outlook remains rather murky and foggy, as is typical for long range forecasts in Israel. ארץ אשר יהוה אלהיך דרש אתה תמיד עיני יהוה אלהיך בה מרשית השנה ועד אחרית שנה – Eretz Yisrael is a land where the eyes of Hashem are always on the Land, from the beginning of the year until the end, so perhaps only G-d knows what we can expect through the rest of the winter.
