Weather It Is (Stormy Weather)

 Good Evening:

1) Heavy rain/Thunderstorms along coastal areas late Wednesday morning into Wednesday Night.

2) Heavy rain/Thunderstorms in central areas and northern Negev Thursday.

3) Snow possible on the middle and upper Hermon.

4) Gusty winds throughout. 

Unusually cold air will combine with a storm moving across the eastern Mediterranean to bring us a period of inclement, stormy weather. The first heavy round of precipitation should be tonight into Wednesday.  As the cold air continues to drain southward, it will encourage additional storm development on Thursday, bringing additional heavy rain from Thursday into Friday.  Forecasts are showing a third round of precipitation later on Shabbat.

After a short break, the wintry weather should return in early December.  

An interesting tidbit: this winter our storm development has featured incursions of cold air from the north.  This means that storms are intensifying as they arrive in our area. This type of pattern is conducive to increasing our chance of a real cold air outbreak as we move into mid December.  We'll have to see if the pattern holds up beyond the first week of December.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Moving Into Winter)

Good Evening:

This November has turned rainy, and there have been many downpours in strong thunderstorms.  Do you all remember that October was almost completely dry?  It was also much hotter than normal (https://ims.gov.il/en/node/1683).   In fact, until this October, there were only three similarly dry Octobers, 1948, 1963, and 1992 (https://ims.gov.il/en/node/1679).  Each of these was followed by winters of above average rainfall, if not much above average.  Moreover, now that the election is "behind" us, we can state that each of these (now four) preceded and "predicted" that a Democratic candidate would win the election for President of the United States.  We need to credit the Israel Meteorological Service for this amazing and most pertinent information. 

Moreover, our forecasts are showing at least two storms on the way, one at the end of this week, and then one towards, but preceding the end of next week.  Both look to be able to produce plenty of rain, and the second looks more like a winter storm than a fall storm.  In fact, cold air will be seeping quite a bit southward, and snow may even fall on the Hermon.  

It's hard to know whether when all is said and done next April, whether a lot more will be said than done, or if we'll really be able to say come then that a lot more was done (rainwise) than said forecast. 

Wondering what's real or what will be can be an exercise in frustration.

For instance, the other night I went to bed a tad bit too late and knew that I had to wake up a tad bit too early.  At some point I woke up, noted that the clock was quite a tad too early than a tad too early, and tried to go back to sleep.  But, then I started dreaming that I couldn't fall back asleep and that I would wake up all tired and cranky. Of course, this was a tad disturbing so being disturbed I woke up.  I did this several times, falling asleep, dreaming I couldn't fall a sleep, and then waking up, until finally that tad too early time came.  All I could do was wonder whether I really slept or just dreamed I slept or didn't sleep, depending on the time of the night.

While some dreams are fortunately unreal, there are far too many things in our waking world that at least some of us (many?) wonder if they are real or not.

For instance, I never believed that Acupuncture is a real treatment for ailments.  True, people pay for these treatments and there is evidence that it works, but I never saw this evidence with my own eyes.  However, after having had some needles stuck in my wrist the last few weeks, I can say that my ankle is feeling much better, even much better than it has felt all year.  So, I am beginning to believe that Acupuncture is indeed a real treatment for at least some ailments.

One I am pretty sure about, though, is that the world is a Frisbee.  Anyone who goes to the beach can see that the edge of the world is round like the edge of a Frisbee.  That's probably the reason why I have never sailed much further than a few hundred meters from the beach.  I mean, I have to admit worrying that the fall at the edge of the world might be a tad too much.

Today, someone sent me an article suggesting that the "Science" says to take your mask off (https://wmbriggs.com/post/32326/).  On a simple level, this doesn't make sense.  Masks keep germs in or germs out, and if you take your mask off, neither you or those standing near you will have anything standing in the way of getting sick (from the CoronaVirus).  This isn't a good thing because a noticeable percentage of those those who just get a little sick are staying sick long after they initially appear to recover (https://www.wsj.com/articles/doctors-begin-to-crack-covids-mysterious-long-term-effects-11604252961?mod=trending_now_pos1).  As pointed out to me by Dorita Rostkier Edelstein (of the Israel Institute for Biological Research), masks are not 100%, but they can significantly reduce the exposure among peoples, making it more likely that a person will control and eliminate the virus before it can do damage.  A more obvious example of what happens when people don't wear masks occurred when a couple (asymptomatic) attended a wedding where guests did not wear masks or keep their distance: 43 of the 100 guests were sick and three died (https://www.timesofisrael.com/outbreak-at-illegal-wedding-in-september-killed-3-guests-infected-43-report/).

At the moment, there are too many people who don't believe it a "real thing" that Joe Biden won the US election.  In fact, the current President refuses to concede and insists that the election was stolen or rigged (see: https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-election/trump-concedes-nothing-on-election-biden-team-to-meet-vaccine-makers-idUSKBN27T0IQ and https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/us/politics/trump-voter-fraud-claims.html).  In this, he is perniciously  supported by Mitch McConnell (https://www.ft.com/content/3cb2d8f4-f0f2-45cf-a1f7-a4b292f9ca91), who, with many other Republicans were either reelected or newly elected to congress. 

In mathematics, there is an idea that one can prove a hypothesis by trying to prove something which is wrong.  That is, if the wrong idea is not correct, then the right idea remains the only answer.  For instance, let's claim that the election was rigged and President Trump should be the next President of the United States.  Since elections for the House of Representatives and Senate are chosen on the same ballot, this means that a vote for Mr. Biden would have brought many new Democrats to both the House and Senate. Yet, the ballot counting shows that the Republicans gained seats in the House and that will likely hold the Senate (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/congress-election-democrats-republicans/2020/11/04/18d725bc-1e9b-11eb-ba21-f2f001f0554b_story.html)!  Hence, our hypothesis that the vote was rigged is simply wrong, and Mr. Biden won the election.

Playing with the truth has dangerous consequences.  Mr. Trump's supporters believe that the election was stolen (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/08/us/politics/pa-trump-voters.html; https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/us/politics/trump-voter-fraud-claims.html), and there have already been demonstrations against the election results (https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-11-14/trump-supporters-and-far-right-groups-rally-in-washington-to-protest-election-results).  People who feel that their voices aren't being heard because their votes have been stolen would likely have a greater predilection towards violence.  Moreover, the undercurrent of anger makes it more difficult for people and their representatives to support compromise, which is necessary for the future well-being of the United States.  This must make Mr. Putin, the Russian President, very happy. 

Here, we suffer from the unreal belief that we subjugate and occupy the Palestinians, as best exemplified by the "Apartheid Roads," where only Israelis are allowed to drive (https://visualizingpalestine.org/visuals/segregated-roads-west-bank).  Yet, anyone who drives on the road outside my house can see numerous Palestinian license plates among the Israeli license plates. These are the same people, I suppose, who really believe that Israeli drivers reach the horizon and simply fall off the edge of it. 

There are at least two ways to ignore reality, often by distorting the truth.  The first is to simply use words which obscure the truth.  The other day, plans to build in Givat HaMatos were criticized for being in "East Jerusalem."  That is, the land was being "stolen" from the Holy City of Jerusalem, or the Palestinians, if I may be frank. Yet, this map (https://static.timesofisrael.com/www/uploads/2020/11/e2b793b9-f5c6-435d-bc7b-12f912a7f3bd.jpg) clearly shows that Givat HaMatos is in southwest Jerusalem, very far from the Old City of Jerusalem, which might be more correctly thought of as East Jerusalem (as designated on maps after the signing of the Armistice line in 1948).  Ramat Shlomo (of Vice President Biden fame: https://www.timesofisrael.com/message-to-us-president-elect-biden-on-israel-and-the-region-first-do-no-harm/) is actually in far northern Jerusalem. So, if you want to obscure reality or the truth, just use words to describe events that have very little to do with their original usage.

Another way to obscure reality, in this case the election, is to simply feign not to see it.  As you may have heard, the election in Georgia (a key swing state) was very close.  Senator Graham decided to try to change the reality of the vote in a very simple way.  He just asked if it might be possible not count the votes themselves (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/us/politics/lindsey-graham-georgia-trump-biden.html?).  My answer to him would be that would be fine, so long as we might not count the votes for the said Senator himself. 

You see, truth does matter!  Without it, there is no reality. And without reality, we have very little to rely on. 

 As pointed out to me by a neighborhood friend, the Torah speaks of God as representing truth: "I am first, and I am last, and I am all that there is" (cf. Isaiah 44:6 and Isaiah 48:12). As noted, the first letter of the Hebrew Alphabet is an Aleph, the middle letter is a Mem, and the last letter is a Tav, which spells the word "Emet" or truth.  

Hence, if we want our world to move closer to a time envisioned by the Prophets, we have to make a real effort to seek the truth.

Barry Lynn

What was real:

My dream that I wasn't sleeping.

The world is flat

Accupuncture

Weather It Is (Strong Storms On The Way)

 Good Afternoon:

High pressure moving across northern Africa and low pressure dropping southeastward just west of Cyprus will combine to bring substantial rains Saturday night into Sunday of this coming week.  The two will serve to funnel cooler air and plenty of moisture our way as night moves into morning. 

Showers and thunderstorms may precede the storm Saturday (Shabbat) afternoon, especially in coastal areas.  Unusually cold temperatures at 500 mb will favor convective instability as the storm moves in Saturday night.  However, there will be a lack of desert dust within the clouds, as winds will blow from the northwest, even ahead of the storm.  So, stronger thunderstorms will probably be confined mostly to near coastal urban areas.  

Rain amounts look to be a maximum over the central mountains, appropriate to the more northerly wind direction.  Flooding in southern areas, and the Dead Sea area is also possible.

After this storm passes, our next storm could arrive at the end of next week, with an even stronger, colder storm to close out the month.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The First Rain Strikes Again)

 Good Afternoon:

Last week some might say they saw (or felt the pitter patter of) the first rain. Others might disagree, as the rain was very localized.  

However, a storm approaching from our north will draw moisture across the southern Mediterranean this Sunday afternoon. Combined with some upper level cold air, the moisture stream will lead to moderate to heavy rains across southern areas, including the Jerusalem area tonight and tomorrow (Monday). Floods will be possible in southern areas (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/road-blocked-by-floods-near-eilat-reopens/).  Lighter rains should fall in northern areas.

As the week progresses, the storm will intensify as cold air continues to filter into it from the north.  There should be three waves of precipitation associated with it.  The first will arrive this Sunday night, while the second should arrive Wednesday.  The third, perhaps the strongest, could arrive late this week, but more likely early next week.  

This is a good start to our winter, after a very dry and warm October. I mention this because the seasonal forecast for our area is for well below normal precipitation (https://ims.gov.il/he/node/1673).  While this is cause for concern, one should keep in mind that last season the forecast was for above normal precipitation from October through December, and below normal precipitation from January through April.  In fact, we had very little rain until the last week in December, and finished the winter (and even spring season) well above normal.  

So, how can these forecasts be so off (as in wrong)?  The simple answer is that our forecasts often cannot predict very well beyond a week; that is: the variability in the forecasts (the global ensemble) becomes so large that there is no signal within the forecast ensemble that we can rely on. Or, there is no signal within the noise.

However, the idea in long range forecasts is that there are longer scale changes that are predictable, such that there are forecast deviations in the mean  temperatures and/or precipitation from weekly or monthly averages.  These longer scale changes are connected to "forcings" related to ocean currents and temperatures (like La Nina/El Nina) or changes in snow cover over the normally colder areas of the arctic and Siberia (https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/climate-dynamics/seasonal-weather-forecasts (https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/climate-dynamics/seasonal-weather-forecasts/).

Yet, there are so many teleconnections among the oceans and large scale atmospheric circulations (e.g., https://scied.ucar.edu/teleconnections-changes-weather-linked-together; https://journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/91/3/381/59722/Teleconnections-in-the-Atmosphere-and-Oceans) that errors in the prediction of even one of them can lead to large errors in the seasonal forecasts (or even predictions for regional climate change) (e.g., https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/33/21/9145/353874/Tracing-North-Atlantic-Oscillation-Forecast-Errors; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017RG000568). Perhaps, this is the simplest explanation for why many of our seasonal forecasts lack utility. 

There are other forecasts that can be inconveniently wrong. For instance, Hillary Clinton was forecast to win the 2016 election (https://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2016/10/18/presidential-forecast-updates/newsletter.html).  Ironically, the pollsters appear to be making the same mistake as before. Then, pollsters said that "As a rule of thumb, we should expect Election Day polling averages to miss by as much as 3 to 4 points: Mrs. Clinton’s current lead in the national popular vote is around 6 to 7 points and growing."  And today, The New York Times notes that the margin of error is smaller than Vice President's lead in the polls (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/us/politics/biden-trump-poll-florida-pennsylvania-wisconsin.html?).  Yet, as noted in the aftermath of the election in 2016, "“It’s the overselling of precision,” said Dr. Pradeep Mutalik, a research scientist at the Yale Center for Medical Informatics) https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/technology/the-data-said-clinton-would-win-why-you-shouldnt-have-believed-it.html).  How pollsters calculate the margin of error affects their models to predict the improbable, having deemed it impossible.

Of course, one might take further umbrage with predictions concerning the continuing saga of the Coronavirus.  Here, a top Israel professor predicted in April that the Coronavirus would disappear after 70 days (https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/).   On the other hand, at the beginning of the pandemic, a top British scientist erroneously predicted: "Our estimates suggest the impact of the unfolding epidemic may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the twentieth"century(https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195217/coronavirus-fatality-rate-estimated-imperial-scientists/), where 50 million people may have died (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/1918-pandemic-history.htm).  Other earlier projections from the Imperial College London suggested that 2.2 million would die in the US by September, while the Center for Disease Control predicted 200,000 to 1.7 million (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html). So far, the actual numbers in the US are about 230,000 and 1.2 million for the world.

So, you can see that forecasts or predictions are sometimes just wrong, or the range so large they can't be wrong.  All suffer from a combination of difficulties.   Both tomorrow's and next month's forecasts require an accurate assessment of the oceans (currents, temperatures), land (vegetation and ice) and atmosphere (temperature, humidity, etc), as well as programs to simulate the interactions between each of them.  Pollsters need to better estimate people's preferences, their desire to hide them, and their likelihood to act upon them (vote).  Epidemiologists must estimate infection rate, and how the infection rate may change due to mutations and people's behavior.  Bacteria and viruses can also become, through unforseen mutations, more or less infectious or deadly.

It's at times like this that we could really use a "Harry Seldon."https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hari_Seldon#:~:text=Hari%20Seldon%20is%20a%20fictional,the%20future%20in%20probabilistic%20terms," a psychohistorian, whose ability was to predict the future in probabilistic terms, and suggest appropriate actions to prepare for the fall of the "Galactic Empire."

Were he to make an appearance, I would ask him: will we have a winter of plentiful rains, who will win the election, and when will the Coronavirus pandemic be behind us?  

My short answers: yes (or at least closer to normal than predicted), Trump, and next year.  However, you can ignore my predictions about Trump and the Coronavirus because I'm just guessing.  As for the seasonal forecast, it's unlikely that we would have such low total rain amounts, and maybe even less likely the seasonal models will be right in any year.

Barry Lynn