Good Afternoon:
Cooler, westerly winds are upon us this Shabbat. They will bring a welcome respite of a few days from the heat. However, On Monday, high pressure will begin to build eastward off the African continent. It will intensify during the week, and the heat should peak up on or about Shabbat.
Our local area model in combination with the Global Ensemble Forecast Systems model suggests that there is a 100% chance that temperatures will be between 36 and 40 degrees Celcius in Jerusalem on Friday. In the coastal plains (just eastward of the sea-breeze), temperatures could exceed 40 C.
A cool front should pass through late Friday or Shabbat, returning temperatures to more comfortable levels.
There could even be a few rain showers.
Recently, there was a lot of hot air blowing from the pages of the MA'AN News Agency (a Palestinian Authority "mouthpiece." The headline said: "Right-wing Israelis storm Solomon's Pools near Bethlehem." The article noted that dozens of "settlers" entered and held religious prayers at Solomon's pools (most likely built by King Herod, named after the "Biblical Solomon."). They were protected by "heavily armed Israeli forces."
It all sounds very sinister.
Except that it wasn't.
It turns out that during the Oslo negotiations, those doing the negotiating on the Israel side were not very aware of Jewish history, and placed both the pools and the Rachel's Cave on their (Palestinian) side of the map. When Chanan Porat (deceased; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanan_Porat) objected, the line was drawn correctly at Rachel's Cave, but through the name on the map, rather than around the pools themselves. So, it came to be that our visit to the edge of the pool may have crossed into "Area A."
A large group, of which I was part, was excited to visit the pools on the morning of Israeli Independence Day. Our homes are located in Gush Etzion, which was populated with Jewish towns until they were destroyed during the Arab Israeli war of 1948. We actually live in nice homes with gardens, and schools, and there are restaurants and stores. I usually shave as well, although some people have beards and would fit nicely in The New York Times "Settler" exhibit page.
That morning, we climbed down the mountain from Efrat and made our way to peek in one of the lower pools. It was pretty awesome to see such a large pool, but it would have been nicer if it was full of water and someone was available from whom to rent fishing rods or a paddle boat.
The article mentioned, as noted, that we were accompanied by soldiers. This was actually so we wouldn't be killed by our neighbors (the Palestinians) -- a technicality, but an important one.
The article also noted that "the internationally recognized Palestinian territories have been occupied by the Israeli military since 1967. " Actually, two countries recognized Jordan's occupation of the "West Bank" (or Judea and Samaria) prior to 1967 (without any reference to Palestinians). Since, then, the ownership of the land has been in dispute. The international community (and even many Israelis) would like to give at least part of the land to the Palestinians, but they won't accept it unless they get all the rest (on both sides of the old Armistice line).
It turns out that immediately after World War II the major powers were hoping to divide the land between Jordan and the Mediterranean among Jews and local Arabs (now, referred to as Palestinians). But, when the latter (and surrounding Arab States) refused to countenance any Jewish independence in what the Romans named "Palestine," the Palestinians lost their chance for an independent state. Ironically, it wasn't Israel that prevented the Palestinians from having their own state in part of the land upon the signing of the Armistice agreement in 1949, but the Egyptians and Jordanians, who ruled both Gaza and the West Bank (as well as part of Jerusalem), respectively, until 1967.
These governments supported the Palestinian Liberation Organization in their quest to destroy the State of Israel -- even the one that existed prior to the 1967 war. A quest that hasn't changed until now.
Barry Lynn
Friday, May 17, 2019
Wednesday, May 8, 2019
Weather It Is (Storm Clouds)
Good Morning:
The hot winds of war quickly cooled off on Tuesday, as winds shifted from the south into the northwest. A trough of lower pressure and colder air moved into our area, but dry southwesterly winds at upper levels meant that the trough arrived without any rain.
As we move on past Shabbat, high pressure should build eastward from Africa, bringing warmer temperatures. Low pressure should then develop to our southeast and then expand westward bringing even summertime temperatures by the middle of next week.
The hot weather and light westerly winds will be perfect for incendiary balloon launching from Gaza. The old joke is that we "cease" and they "fire." In this case, balloon launches from Gaza literally bring fire across our border.
Back in 2005, prior to the Israeli disengagement from Gaza, there were those who said that the Gazan's would not be soon courteously sending our leftover suitcases, but large numbers of missiles. Rather than having just one the most highest density of people within a relatively small area, it would also have one of the highest density of missiles, ready to launch, whenever the situation "called" for it.
These people were ridiculed, and the standard answer was: "if they shoot one missile, we'll know what to do." Really?
The last few days saw the latest installment of the ongoing Palestinian war against Israel. There was the war of 2008, and 2011, and 2014, with another mini-war these last few days. Each time, the government said it was attacking just enough to stop missiles, but refrained from removing Hamas from power. Each time, a so-called ceasefire was followed by more attacks, and each time the number of missiles and their explosive power has grown substantially.
The problem is that people, but especially policy makers, like to think linearly. What will come will be proportional to what was, and we'll muddle through as always. The problem is that destructive power doesn't have to grow proportionally, but can grow exponentially, and instead of homes being destroyed whole apartment buildings will probably be destroyed in the next round.
After the previous exchange of missiles and Israeli attacks, Israel agreed to allow Qatar to provide money to Hamas in exchange for quiet. Of course, this wasn't a true quiet (the violent border protests continued), and missiles were launched by accident (lightning, they said, and a mis-set timer).
It is interesting to examine news reports from the last week, to better understand where we're going. On May 5th, Palestinian Islamic Jihad threatened “The resistance is on the verge of a new level in facing aggression; a level that could lead to open war,” Mosab Al Braim tells the Hamas-linked al-Risala daily. “It will hurt the enemy like our people are hurting.” (Times of Israel). Notice, he refers to those firing the missiles as the "resistance," in contrast to the "aggressors," Israel, neatly inverting the reality. Oh, of course his people are hurting because Israel fought back to stop the true aggressor's missile fire.
So, the Palestinians of Gaza are now justifying war, based on a falsehood, but there are many people who will swallow the lie.
Then, the Palestinians layout their "blackmail" position: "“The battle will not end until the occupation responds affirmatively to our people’s demands" (Times of Israel). Until Israel gives us money (to pay our soldiers) , materials (to build more missiles), open borders (to import anti-tank weapons), etc, we'll keep firing.
Our Prime Minister responds to the mayhem of the war (death and destruction in Israeli cities) with the following: "Israel had reinstated its controversial policy of targeted killings and warned that the 'rules of the game' vis-a-vis the Gaza Strip have changed." https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-pushes-back-on-gaza-ceasefire-criticism-says-rules-of-game-have-changed/. Is it really a game when young men are blown up running to bomb shelters? He then crowed about how many "terror towers" Israel destroyed, and having killed dozens of Palestinian fighters. He overlooks that he has been the Prime Minister since 2009, and has been on watch while Hamas and Islamic Jihad have morphed from a swarm of Mosquitoes to a swarm of killer bees. But, in the next sentence he says that this is just a pause, and that the "campaign" is not over.
Why the pause? The concurrent arrival of Israel Remembrance and Independence day (and Eurovision contest), and the Muslim month of Ramadan. Bad timing! Better wait until summertime.
So, what is the end of this game like? Today, Islamic Jihad stated that “The last escalation was only a live fire drill in preparation for the major campaign that is coming,” and everything was fully coordinated with Hamas (https://www.timesofisrael.com/islamic-jihad-warns-of-war-during-summer-calls-last-flareup-live-fire-drill/).
In a total disconnect, the Israeli Defense Forces warned that "that war with the impoverished Hamas-controlled enclave could be back on the horizon in days or weeks if Israel did not work to ease living conditions there." As if Hamas and Islamic Jihad care at all about the living conditions of those they use as "living shields."
So, now we have it: the Gaza Palestinian army has announced that war is coming, and that they plan to bombard our major cities and installations with missiles. Perhaps they will invade the border towns as well? In the meantime, we'll keep supplying them with power, water, food, materials, and money so that they can be well-stocked up for the war.
Sometimes, people buy small pythons or boa constrictors for pets. Sometime, people buy baby lions. They figure if they just feed them, the cute cats will grow up to be a large kitty cat..
But, then, the snake swallows the person instead of the rat, while the lion turns around and eats its owner.
The hot winds of war quickly cooled off on Tuesday, as winds shifted from the south into the northwest. A trough of lower pressure and colder air moved into our area, but dry southwesterly winds at upper levels meant that the trough arrived without any rain.
As we move on past Shabbat, high pressure should build eastward from Africa, bringing warmer temperatures. Low pressure should then develop to our southeast and then expand westward bringing even summertime temperatures by the middle of next week.
The hot weather and light westerly winds will be perfect for incendiary balloon launching from Gaza. The old joke is that we "cease" and they "fire." In this case, balloon launches from Gaza literally bring fire across our border.
Back in 2005, prior to the Israeli disengagement from Gaza, there were those who said that the Gazan's would not be soon courteously sending our leftover suitcases, but large numbers of missiles. Rather than having just one the most highest density of people within a relatively small area, it would also have one of the highest density of missiles, ready to launch, whenever the situation "called" for it.
These people were ridiculed, and the standard answer was: "if they shoot one missile, we'll know what to do." Really?
The last few days saw the latest installment of the ongoing Palestinian war against Israel. There was the war of 2008, and 2011, and 2014, with another mini-war these last few days. Each time, the government said it was attacking just enough to stop missiles, but refrained from removing Hamas from power. Each time, a so-called ceasefire was followed by more attacks, and each time the number of missiles and their explosive power has grown substantially.
The problem is that people, but especially policy makers, like to think linearly. What will come will be proportional to what was, and we'll muddle through as always. The problem is that destructive power doesn't have to grow proportionally, but can grow exponentially, and instead of homes being destroyed whole apartment buildings will probably be destroyed in the next round.
After the previous exchange of missiles and Israeli attacks, Israel agreed to allow Qatar to provide money to Hamas in exchange for quiet. Of course, this wasn't a true quiet (the violent border protests continued), and missiles were launched by accident (lightning, they said, and a mis-set timer).
It is interesting to examine news reports from the last week, to better understand where we're going. On May 5th, Palestinian Islamic Jihad threatened “The resistance is on the verge of a new level in facing aggression; a level that could lead to open war,” Mosab Al Braim tells the Hamas-linked al-Risala daily. “It will hurt the enemy like our people are hurting.” (Times of Israel). Notice, he refers to those firing the missiles as the "resistance," in contrast to the "aggressors," Israel, neatly inverting the reality. Oh, of course his people are hurting because Israel fought back to stop the true aggressor's missile fire.
So, the Palestinians of Gaza are now justifying war, based on a falsehood, but there are many people who will swallow the lie.
Then, the Palestinians layout their "blackmail" position: "“The battle will not end until the occupation responds affirmatively to our people’s demands" (Times of Israel). Until Israel gives us money (to pay our soldiers) , materials (to build more missiles), open borders (to import anti-tank weapons), etc, we'll keep firing.
Our Prime Minister responds to the mayhem of the war (death and destruction in Israeli cities) with the following: "Israel had reinstated its controversial policy of targeted killings and warned that the 'rules of the game' vis-a-vis the Gaza Strip have changed." https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-pushes-back-on-gaza-ceasefire-criticism-says-rules-of-game-have-changed/. Is it really a game when young men are blown up running to bomb shelters? He then crowed about how many "terror towers" Israel destroyed, and having killed dozens of Palestinian fighters. He overlooks that he has been the Prime Minister since 2009, and has been on watch while Hamas and Islamic Jihad have morphed from a swarm of Mosquitoes to a swarm of killer bees. But, in the next sentence he says that this is just a pause, and that the "campaign" is not over.
Why the pause? The concurrent arrival of Israel Remembrance and Independence day (and Eurovision contest), and the Muslim month of Ramadan. Bad timing! Better wait until summertime.
So, what is the end of this game like? Today, Islamic Jihad stated that “The last escalation was only a live fire drill in preparation for the major campaign that is coming,” and everything was fully coordinated with Hamas (https://www.timesofisrael.com/islamic-jihad-warns-of-war-during-summer-calls-last-flareup-live-fire-drill/).
In a total disconnect, the Israeli Defense Forces warned that "that war with the impoverished Hamas-controlled enclave could be back on the horizon in days or weeks if Israel did not work to ease living conditions there." As if Hamas and Islamic Jihad care at all about the living conditions of those they use as "living shields."
So, now we have it: the Gaza Palestinian army has announced that war is coming, and that they plan to bombard our major cities and installations with missiles. Perhaps they will invade the border towns as well? In the meantime, we'll keep supplying them with power, water, food, materials, and money so that they can be well-stocked up for the war.
Sometimes, people buy small pythons or boa constrictors for pets. Sometime, people buy baby lions. They figure if they just feed them, the cute cats will grow up to be a large kitty cat..
But, then, the snake swallows the person instead of the rat, while the lion turns around and eats its owner.
Are we ready to fight Gaza? Are we ready to rid ourselves of Hamas and its partner in terror Islamic Jihad? Seems doable, we'll just send in the army if it really gets bad -- we've got everything under control. Except in our non-linear world might one consider that Hizbollah of Lebanon will attack this summer at the same time? Until, we've bought quiet by paying ever increasing amounts of blackmail, but soon smoke filled storm clouds will fill our skies.
Barry Lynn
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