Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Weather It Is (Tantalizingly Close)

The weather remains -- the weather, wintry that is. 

Yesterday, though, was a bit of an anomaly.  There was sub-tropical stream of air that moved across Africa and brought a light rain as far south as Eilat, and light to moderate rain eventually throughout the country. 

Today, though, the air has a definite chill, and it colder and moisture is on the way for Wednesday.  Because the temperatures at 500 mb are going to be below -25 C, snow should form at higher altitudes and in heavier convective storms mix all the way to the surface.  Hence, there could be a coding of snow at the highest elevations, including central Israel, but don't expect it to last long as lower atmospheric and surface temperatures will struggle to drop below freezing. 

Looking further ahead, cold air remains anchored over Europe, but the center of the coldest air mass shows no signs (yet) of moving in our direction.

Getting it to snow here is sort of like trying to make peace with the Palestinians. Of course, everyone wants snow and everyone wants peace.  The problem is this: we're it to snow here (west of the old Green-Line) we would be happy to share it with our Palestinian neighbors (east of the old Green-Line).
However, they (i.e, the Palestinians) would not be willing to share it with us.  Basically, they want all the snow to themselves.  Hence, peace for them doesn't mean sharing the land, it means taking the whole piece, whether that is piecemeal through negotiations or through our own unilateral withdrawals.  Unless we hold steadfast, they'll take the land and us a piece at a time, until they've got the whole pie.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Weather It Is (Winter Continues)

It's a bit strange writing a header that says: "winter continues."  However, when I was a child (or more accurately: prior to my "Aliyah) there used to be winter every year.  However, one should keep in mind our forefathers had to leave Eretz Israel because of drought, and Joseph forecast a seven year drought (or at least a seven year cycle of wet and dry weather).  One should also take note that the global rise in temperatures (most likely associated with greenhouse gases) is extenuating any periodicity in the drought cycle.

Fortunately, the government has finally invested in desalination plants so we have (Thank God) enough water to pass the dry (rainy) season.

Yet, this winter is what we would consider normal.  It's sort-of-cold (although not today) and its frequently wet (known as "rainy").  There is an area of high pressure located at the lower levels of the atmosphere, situated on the western side of an upper level trough.  This is funneling cold air southward. There is also a fairly active southern jet stream leading storms frequently along the southern boundary of the northern trough.

Fortunately, no change in the general weather pattern is seen.  The question is: how much of the cold air will be drawn into these frequently passing systems.  Early this week, there was enough cold air for a change over to wet snow/graupel in central Israel, and snow at the higher elevations, but the next storm late this week looks to be not quite as cold (stay tuned).  Still, next week may bring a greater likelihood of frozen precipitation.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Weather It Is (Was that a snowflake I saw?)

Good Afternoon:

After a morning of heavy rain mixed with snow, rather strong thunderstorms are moving inland off the sea bringing an ice mix of snow, sleet and rain.  There's been a light covering of ice here in Gush Etzion, and highly elevated areas in the north are receiving snow -- especially the Golan.

Temperatures should remain above freezing, however, keeping the roads mostly ice free. Tonight, temperatures should moderate as the storm slowly winds down.

The weather will remain cool (and some would consider it cold) until the end of the week when another storm approaches from the west. The exact track of the coldest air associated with this storm will determine if we get just plain rain, or a rain/snow mix again.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Winter continues, and even colder air is forecast to  move in Thursday night and Friday.  However, the cold air closer to the surface is not supported by especially cold air aloft, nor is this system especially moisture laden.

Hence, the forecast is for unseasonably cold weather, with a chance of light freezing precipitation.

By the way, for those worried about bursting solar water heater pipes. It is not enough to keep the water running -- because when the solar collectors are not heating, water does not flow through them anyway. Instead, one needs to attach or close an already attached valve that is located between the water tank and the heater.  Keep this valve closed from just before the time the temperature drops below freezing until after the sun (the next morning) has warmed the collectors and melted the water within.  This is necessary to prevent a pressure buildup in the morning when the sun heats any remaining water within, but the ice prevents an outlet for this water. 

Looking further ahead: there are indications that winter will continue, and very cold air is headed our way early next week.  In this case, the coldest air will be found at higher levels, hence, there is the possibility of snow, melting as it descends, but possibly reaching the ground at the higher elevations in the form of wet snow.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Weather It Is (Brrrr)

Winter continues, and even colder air is forecast to  move in Thursday night and Friday.  However, the cold air closer to the surface is not supported by especially cold air aloft, nor is this system especially moisture laden. 

Hence, the forecast is for unseasonably cold weather, with a chance of light freezing precipitation.

By the way, for those worried about bursting solar water heater pipes. It is not enough to keep the water running -- because when the solar collectors are not heating, water does not flow through them anyway. Instead, one needs to attach or close an already attached valve that is located between the water tank and the heater.  Keep this valve closed from just before the time the temperature drops below freezing until after the sun (the next morning) has warmed the collectors and melted the water within.  This is necessary to prevent a pressure buildup in the morning when the sun heats any remaining water within, but the ice prevents an outlet for this water. 

Looking further ahead: there are indications that winter will continue, but the coldest air is suppose to be located further to the west, and there may be a bit of a warm-up late in the week.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Weather It Is (Will It Snow?)

A good Sunday morning to you.

The weather map continues to look very stormy.  Cold air remains anchored over eastern Europe and Western Russia.  Storms pivoting around this area of cold air continue to bring much needed rain.

However, even though it is cold, it isn't that cold  -- i.e, cold enough for snow at any locations but the highest, highest mountains.  So, just a cold rain will continue in most places.

Still, snow springs eternal (or is that hope?).  The long range weather map continues to show that snow is a possibility, but so far all the ingredients (i.e, really cold air at the surface and aloft, combined with a lot of Mediterranean moisture) have not fallen into place. 

Tonight I made a new pizza recipe.  One part of the recipe was actually to let the dough rest.  I admit that it is a bit late and perhaps the dough was tired, but it got me thinking: maybe the weather is tired -- tired of hearing about how it is going to snow,   True, I've been playing down the potential for snow, but others haven't, and this can definitely getting tiring.  So, my suggestion is: let it rest -- no more talking about it, writing about it, or speaking about it.   Let's just let the snowflakes fall if they will -- let it be a complete surprise (now, that would be fun!).

Barry Lynn

Friday, January 13, 2012

Weather It Is (Very Stormy)

A very powerful storm is organizing itself in the eastern Mediterranean.  Its source of energy: a very, very cold mass of air located to our north.  This cold air mass (or large trough of low pressure) has been nearly stationary for a week and is suppose to persist at least until the end of next week.

Very cold air at the upper levels of the atmosphere will probably trigger strong convective storms tonight and  tomorrow, and heavy rain associated with this system will persist into Sunday. Expect the wind to blow, and the a cold wind to blow.  Because it's very cold aloft, expect some of the rain to fall as heavy graupel (or hail), and even coat the ground in spots.

Looking into next week, the very cold air mass should drift further south, and temperatures should fall to freezing or below.  Right now, there is a 60% chance of a wet snow Tuesday into Wednesday. 

Enjoy the heavy weather, but stay away from power lines, trees, and open areas -- especially during lightning storms.

Barry Lynn

Monday, January 9, 2012

Weather It Is (Winter)

Good Afternoon:

Winter is on the way, and this is the kind of winter we all remember -- although not so well.  There is actually a taste of it today, and rain is falling up north, mostly along the coast.

For the first time in quite a long time, very, very cold air has become anchored to our north and
this trough of cold air will spin up several storms during the next week or so.  Some folks
are talking about snow in the near future, but this is really most likely over the Hermon. 

However, rain should fall, and rain should fall.  One might actually really get wet if one ventures out.  So, now is the time to buy yourself, your children (and for some: your dog) a good raincoat and rain-boots or dog-boots.  If you've got a cat, time to clean out the litter box.

Looking a week plus out, there is some indication that this mammoth area of cold air might slip southward, and then a rain coat wouldn't be quite enough against the "elements."  But, this is a ways a way, even if the rain isn't.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Weather It Is (Cold and Wet)

The weather is going to get stormy, and it's going to get wet.  In fact, the next 10 days look wet, which is a bit ironic because the latest seasonal forecast indicates a drought for our area.

The first storm will sweep across our area in the next few days, and then by mid-week it should be followed by an even colder (and wet) storm. Hopefully, the Hermon will be able to open after this is all said and done -- as they say.

Interestingly, there is forecast to be extremely, extremely cold air situated over far eastern Europe and western Russia during the time of the second storm.  If some of this cold air breaks further south, there could be the first snow.  Of course, that a big if -- but the rain isn't.

Barry Lynn