Thursday, October 30, 2014

Weather It Is (Update to Rain Event)

Good Morning:

Light showers are possible this afternoon.  They will become heavier as evening approaches, and as the storm intensifies and moves towards our direction.

We're still looking at high rain chances into Shabbat, with the possibility of a redevelopment early next week.  It might just rain for a week!

While expected to be substantial, we're still not sure about the total rain amounts. This will probably become clearer later in the day as the storm finally gets organized.

Winds will also be a problem, and they might possibly reach gale force.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Weather It Is (The First Rain; He's No Jack Kennedy)

Good Afternoon:

The debate over whether we had the first rain on the 19th of October (or earlier) will all be academic very soon.

The global ensemble forecast members have come into sharp agreement, and they all indicate rain overspreading the area on Thursday.  The rain is associated with low pressure developing in the "southern" jet stream traversing the Mediterranean sea.  At the same time, a ridge of high pressure will build into western Europe, which will encourage the merging of the southern and northern jet streams, spilling unseasonably cool air southward, and spinning up a potent and prolonged early winter storm.

Rain, heavy at times, will occur through Friday, and rain showers will likely persist on Shabbat.  There are some indications that the storm may linger into early next week as relatively cold air continues to filter southward.

It seems like the stormy weather is also affecting the political relationship between the United States and Israel. It is being reported today that  an "unnamed" American source said of our Prime Minister:


He’s not [Yitzhak] Rabin, he’s not [Ariel] Sharon, he’s certainly no [Menachem] Begin. He’s got no guts.”

While each had admirable qualities (especially Menachim Begin),  Menachim Begin gave away the Sinai which has turned into a terrorist haven. Yithak Rabin brought us Oslo and thousands of deaths and injuries, while Sharon removed Israeli towns from Gaza, bringing us tens of thousands of missiles and mortars.

Here is my response: Barack Obama is no George Washington. If he was, there would be no constitution to defend.  He is no Abraham Lincoln.  If he was, "his" people would still be slaves. He is no Franklin Roosevelt.  If we was, we'd all be Nazis or dead.  And, of course, he is no Jack Kennedy.  You might say he is Andrew Jackson, who wasn't good for his "word"  (he tore-up previously agreed upon treaties, dispossessing and displacing Native Americans).  He is, unfortunately, Barack Obama.


Barry Lynn


Monday, October 27, 2014

Weather It Is (Getting Organized)

Good Evening:

For the last several days temperatures have been dropping in the upper atmosphere (500 mb) level, indicating the development of a "trough" in the circulation pattern.  The eastern side of this trough is associated with rising air (i.e., "divergence" aloft).

Now, it looks like this trough will spin up an area of low pressure, and there is broad ensemble agreement that rain should overspread the area on Thursday and continue into Friday.  Beyond this time period, there is much less certainty.  The rain may stop and become intermittent, or it might continue at a heavier rate.

Looking mid next week, temperatures should warm up a bit, but there is a chance that storminess will build back in by the end of the two week period.

I am glad that our Prime Minister says that we should build in Jerusalem, just like the French build in Paris, etc.  However, how does he justify building outside of Jerusalem, where Israel does not claim sovereignty?  Why do we persist in a situation where much of the land we have built on or wish to build on -- in the "West Bank" -- we don't claim for ourselves, but maintain only military rule. No wonder the "world" is confused.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Weather It Is (This Week's Weather)

Good Evening:

We've got one more day of mild weather before the winds before a trough of low pressure begins to build over the eastern Mediterranean.

The trough will build slowly through the week, and eventually strengthen enough to bring our first steady (and hopefully) prolonged period of rain by weeks end.

With the moisture will come steadily lowering temperatures, so it will feel like fall weather again.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Weather It Is (Nimble Mosquitos and Mastodons)

Good Morning:

We've got one more nice day on tap today, and then the weather will become -- well less nice.

A trough of low pressure will begin to build over the eastern Mediterranean, and with it more fall like weather will drop temperatures.  The system should also bring more clouds and moisture.  However, we can't say with any certainty whether it will rain.  Our ensemble forecasts show the possibility of rain on just about any day, but the probability is not high.

It is one thing when 10 out of 10 people in a room get up and say tomorrow the sun will rise, but when only one person is willing to be so bold -- one wonders if it will happen.

Fortunately, most of us would agree that as long as the rooster crows, the sun will rise.

As a scientist, I prefer to be scientific, both about the weather and life in general. And so it happens, that I am always ready with an excuse when my wife asks me why I don't feed the kids first.  Or, at least, why I find it so hard to feed them before taking a few bites myself.  The answer: you never know when one might have to get up, grab ones I-Phone, and zap a mastodon for the next meal. I am very sure of my answer. Of course, the same answer is given even when more than few bites are consumed.

The rain bring the blessing of new life, and it also brings mosquitos.  One such mosquito kept me up at night.  I am very sensitive to that annoying buzzing sound, while my wife -- bless her -- can sleep right through the noise.  Several times I leaped out of bed to smack this mosquito, but he was just too nimble.  He always escaped.  Yet it was that he returned to the well once too often.  At 5:01 A.M, I got him, and then a wipe to clean the blood off the ceiling (was it mine?).

And here is the lesson for all those men out there.  This mosquito wasn't so nimble after his large meal, in fact he wasn't very nimble at all, and now he isn't anything at all.

I can only conclude that the Mastodon excuse just doesn't hold water; after all, who can really hunt Mastodon on a full stomach?

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Weather It Is (Late Night Intimacies)

Good Evening:

In the next 36 hours it is going to get a lot warmer, perhaps 10 C warmer.  However,  changes are afoot, and they are coming here.

After the passage of a cool front Wednesday night, surface temperatures will start heading downwards.  At the mid and upper layers of the atmosphere, temperatures will fall off even more rapidly, creating the potential for unstable and rainy conditions.

However. the future is cloudy, and we really can't definite any particular rain event during the next week or so, other than to say that we should be rain free until the end of the week. Rain amounts will depend on just where a trough of low pressure forms in the eastern Mediterranean.  Too far to the west, and we'll probably end up more dry than wet.

Late night (about 4 A.M) is sometimes a time of unexpected intimacy, especially if the dog happens to wake up both sleeping slumberers.  It was at that time that I remarked to my wife that tomorrow (the 19th -- past) would bring our first rain (and it did rain -- about 5 mm). To which she replied: "we already had the first rain."  I mentioned that I knew that it rained the night of Sukkot eve, but that it wasn't very hard.  She responded that she had read about a heavy, but short rain in Tel-Aviv a few days previous and that this was the first rain.  When I protested that it hadn't rained here, she said that this didn't matter -- there was nothing more to discuss and that I should go back go sleep.

The next morning I was left wondering: if a rain shower falls somewhere else, and no meteorologist sees it, did anyone get wet?

Barry Lynn


Saturday, October 18, 2014

Weather It Is (The First Rain)

Good Evening:

The wife says that she is unsure, but we at the Weather It Is weather center (or WII WC, for short) are pretty sure that tomorrow's storm will bring our first rain.

A storm has formed near Cyprus and will move eastward passing inland to our north.  Cold air streaming in behind the storm will keep a low pressure trough situated over the eastern Mediterranean, and with it will come a steady rain to cover most of the country by the time all is said and done.  The rain should start tonight over the north and around morning over the center.

The stormy weather will be followed by mild fall weather for the rest of the week.

It is reassuring that we're getting our first rain in October, and that the weather has been seasonably cool.  This compares to last year when warm weather was the rule until we used the same ruler to measure the snow amounts, only to lose the ruler in the drawer until March (when it finally rained again).

Here's hoping for a good rainy season, with a bit of snow thrown in for good measure.

Barry Lynn

Monday, October 13, 2014

Weather It Is (Is That A Forecast?)

Good Evening:

After an absolutely outstanding day (or is it two?), we're headed into more "wintry" like weather.
Cooler air near the surface will advance at a more rapid pace than the last couple of days and will combine with a mid-and upper-level system to create the potential for thundershowers again on Wednesday and Simchat Torah.

This system is a bit stronger than the last one, but it's not the type to produce a general rain -- hence, predicting rain at any location and time is really a "crap-shoot."

The general instability in the weather pattern and resulting uncertainty in the forecast will carry over to late this week (Shabbat) and early next week.  Right now, the global ensemble (GEFS) shows a 30 to 40% chance of our first significant rain Shabbat and Sunday.  On the other hand, the weather may just warm up a bit and make us wonder if winter's advance has stalled.

If you'd like a good day's fun and learning experience, go over to Susyia (it is south on Route 60, about 40 minutes from the Gush Etzion Junction).  Susyia was a Jewish town that existed for many years after the destruction of the second Temple, and then inexplicably the population left.  The city remained buried until a relatively short time ago, and is definitely worth seeing and partaking in the activities at the site. At least during Chol HaMoed, there is a Kosher restaurant type food to be bought.

Modim L'Simcha,

Barry Lynn

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Weather It Is (Lost in the Wind)

Good Evening:

My wife insists that our house was the epicentre of the severe storm that affected our area last night.  While it was short on rain, there was plenty of lightning and wind.  In fact, the roofing material ("scock") flipped over and then flew off into the distance.  If you find it, please return.

Another low pressure disturbance will impact our area tonight into tomorrow afternoon, bringing the possibility of showers.  Our forecast model doesn't show appreciable rain, but the global models (that use only a convective parameterization -- which reflect the general instability of the atmosphere) continue to show areas of light rain popping up during the forecast period.

The cool weather will persist until the end of the holiday, when a more significant wave of low pressure may bring more steady rain.  This should be followed by a bit of a warm up early the following week.

Modim L' Simcha,

Barry

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Weather It Is (Raincoats)

Good Afternoon:

The latest Global Forecast model run shows a greater likelihood of rain showers (possibly heavy) heading our way later this afternoon and evening.  Already, strong convective storms are seen out over the Mediterranean sea, with lighter rain down over the south.

A strong upper level system will develop over our area and build a trough of low pressure during the next week.  Hence, there will be periodic chances of rain, including on Shabbat.

Rain may also fall over the Arava desert down to Eilat, and in the area of Dead Sea, potentially creating flooding conditions.

Hag Samaech,

Barry Lynn

Monday, October 6, 2014

Weather It Is (Sukkah Showers)

Good Afternoon:

The temperatures are on the rise -- at least until Erev Sukkot.

At this time a storm will slowly form over the eastern Mediterranean. This will have two impacts on our weather as we sit down to our Sukkah meal: temperature and winds.  Temperatures will fall off by about 10 C from highs in the 20s to low 30s to high in the low 20s.  Winds will also increase, so Sukkah coverings will need to be carefully placed and secured.

There is some moisture with this system, but not as much as hoped for.  Showers will be possible during Shabbat and Chol HaMoed as temperatures continue to cool at upper levels, but no heavy rain is expected at this time.

We see a slight temperature moderation upwards as we near the end of the Hag.

Hag Sameach,

Barry Lynn

Saturday, October 4, 2014

Weather It Is (Sukkah Rain and Wind)

Good Evening:

There is palatable relief among the "people" has Yom Kippur comes to an end, and we all hope to have been sealed into this year's "Book Of Life."

We had one of the most beautiful weather Yom-Kippurs in quite a while -- in fact that I can remember. It was exquisitely sunny with deep blue skies.

The forecast for this winter season is above normal rain amounts, and already the weather maps are indicating a turn towards a more "winter" type later this week.  The Global Ensemble Forecast System model is indicating a sharp downturn in temperatures as we head into Sukkot.  It should also turn very windy, so you'll need to take extra care and batten down the Sukkah hatches.

Their is a strong potential for rain late Friday, greater than 50%.  The amounts could be substantial, but right now we're too far out to say anything differently.

I read that the United States rejects the equality between ISIS and Hamas -- I guess this is because Hamas just seeks to kill us (for now), while ISIS has turned its messianic wrath on other nations as well.  This is a time of potential change for the Jewish people -- starting off a new year.  Let's hope the world will not fall further backwards into barbarity.

Shana Tova,

Barry Lynn

Thursday, October 2, 2014

Weather It Is (Everyone Said)

Good Evening:

Everywhere I went everyone said: "Tut-Tut it looks like rain," as they scooted from place to place.  The question was even raised: "should I bring my rain jacket to school?"

Well the day did bring some rain, but it wasn't very wet.

Temperatures will moderate a bit over the next few days, but remain comfortable for the Yom Kippur fast.  The European Union has issue a Yom Kippur related proclamation: "the EU no longer recognizes fasting beyond the 1967 border -- no credit will be given for doing so. The EU encourages anyone planning on fasting for the Jewish Holy Day to do so only in recognized Israel -- and not in the Palestinian Territories."  The Israel Prime Minister responded:  "Obviously, they do not understand that fasting can be done anywhere, on a boat, on a plane, on a train, politics not withstanding."

Fortunately, our weather knows no bounds, and we can safely say that some weather arriving for the start of Sukkot may just bring a shower, to be followed by a warming trend thereafter.  The "rain-storm" will be trying to form near Cyprus as Sukkot arrives.  We'll wish it luck and to all else an easy and meaningful fast.

Gamar Chatima Tova,

Barry Lynn