Good Afternoon:
It's hot, and it's getting hotter. Our end of the holiday heat is being caused by low pressure situated to our south. Counterclockwise winds around the low have brought unseasonably hot weather which will last through Shabbat. Fortunately, high pressure should build in from the west on Sunday and more fall-like weather should then return.
We hope to soon try to review seasonal forecasts for this coming winter, but in the meantime we note that the global ensemble forecast suggests that our first rain should arrive in the form of showers about two weeks time from now.
You may not believe the forecast of Fall's first rain, but it it turns out that my wife believes there is a conspiracy to keep her from going to bed on time. And it turns out that it is I who am responsible for this. You see, she believes that every time she needs to get ready for bed that I purposely run to, enter, and appropriate the bathroom. In fact, she says that as soon as I hear her footsteps on the stairs, she can hear my footsteps on the bedroom floor, followed shortly by the slamming of the bathroom door.
What's going on? Well, I will tell you that it turns out that I married my wife because I sublimely knew that she and I would go to bed about the same time. This is important, as one soon comes to realize that bedtime is actually a time not just for sleeping, but for asking "how was your day?" (See: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/bedroom-behaviors-that-could-be-killing-your-marriage_n_565caf76e4b08e945fec16b4). Hence, our mutual run for the bathroom.
But, what if it turns out that there is actually a conspiracy going on here? A conspiracy by husbands to annoy their wives? What is a conspiracy, anyway?
As defined at "Dictionary.com," a conspiracy is "any concurrence in action; combination to bring about any given result." So, my wife must think that husbands everywhere conspire to go in the bathroom whenever they hear their wives on approach. Well, I am telling her that I don't need other husbands to annoy her, I can do that all on my own.
Yet, there are plenty of conspiracy theories around. For instance, the other day I pointed out that in Gush Etzion there are all of about 100 people with Coronavirus, but in Betar (where masks are not worn and social distancing is ignored) there were already 1000 people diagnosed. The person's response? "Who told you? Why do you believe those numbers? Do you know anyone who has the Coronavirus?" This person believes that the health ministry is conspiring to foster hate of the religious. Just this day, the Times of Israel reported about a man who woke up in a Coronavirus ward and exclaimed: "But there is no Coronavirus!" (https://www.timesofisrael.com/but-there-is-no-coronavirus-shocked-cynic-told-doctors-waking-up-in-hospital/). The other claim is that "these people would have died anyway." Yet, the Jerusalem Post reports that the health ministry estimates that only 12% of the people who contracted the virus were projected to die in the next six months, and only 20% in the next year (https://www.jpost.com/opinion/israelis-must-face-the-reality-of-the-pandemic-in-order-to-stop-it-644214). This means that people like Raphael (my wife's Uncle; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jikgSXU8Wjo), a healthy mid 80s individual, died prematurely shortly after contracting the virus -- just like the father of a colleague of mine. So, yes, I do know people who have had the virus -- and even died from it.
Another claim is that a combination of zinc, Vitamin D, etc, are helpful in fighting the coronavirus (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/03/health/Covid-trump-treatments.html). There is even the belief that this simple and inexpensive treatment is being withheld because it isn't profitable. Yet, Mr. Trump took all of these, but needed serious and even revolutionary treatments to make a (possibly temporary) recovery (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/06/us/trump-coronavirus-care-treatment.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage). The President then went on to state that the disease is not really worse than the flu, despite the disparity in deaths between the two diseases, and that the coming days could see him need to return to the hospital (https://www.wsj.com/articles/president-trump-still-faces-risk-as-he-convalesces-at-white-house-11601944622). You could say all this, even write it, but you won't convince someone who's already convinced otherwise (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/opinion/trump-covid-fox-news-masks.html).
So, why are some (if not many) prone to conspiracy theories? The first reason is that our brains are "wired" to believe (even strange) things -- because this particular trait leads to greater survival outcomes ( https://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shermer_the_pattern_behind_self_deception). The other is related to something called "Ramsey's Theory," which states that given enough elements in a set or structure, some interesting or recognizable pattern is guaranteed to emerge (https://www.ted.com/talks/patrickjmt_the_origin_of_countless_conspiracy_theories?language=en). Hence, we can easily find support for our beliefs, simply by piecing together supportive but unrelated bits of information.
But, perhaps the biggest reason is that our social media platforms have been designed (inadvertently) to foment dissent by reinforcing previously held suspicions. The result is, for example, an increase in those who believe that the Coronavirus is, for example, a conspiracy of the LEFT to elect Democrats and Democratic President (preferably a very far left Democrat). As noted by Thomas Friedman (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/opinion/trump-election-fraud-2020.html), "Facebook and Twitter have become giant engines for destroying the two pillars of our democracy — truth and trust." They've done this by destroying our ability to sort truth from falsehood.
As explained in Netflix's "The Social Dilemma" (PreviewPreview1:04The Social Dilemma | Official Clip | More Information | Netflix), (artificial intelligence) programs designed to maximize revenue for social media are inadvertently fostering societal decisive, providing many avenues for nefarious characters (or state actors) to influence political opinion or reinforce for their own benefit even "naturally" occurring biases, or even racist attitudes and/or antisemitism. This happens because an important way to maximize revenue is hold the interest of the user, and this is done by sending the user stories of interest -- but these are usually news items and/or opinions that conform to a person's predilections or even preconceived notions. The result is that a person's truth becomes what he sees or hears, and in the end we may all live in our own bubble of reality, not interacting except to mock or minimize the opinions (and people) who don't conform with what we know to be "true."
It's the way one can claim that carbon dioxide doesn't cause global warming, but when the world warms anyway, we're told it's a good thing. It's the way that one can claim the Coronavirus isn't very contagious (or very dangerous), but when the President and a large number of his staff get it, we're told that it was bound to happen if we waited long enough (rather than maybe they should have worn masks, etc). Or, it's the way we can claim that vaccines cause Autism, even though Autism existed well before the advent of vaccines. If you look for your own set of "facts" on the internet, you'll find someone else with the same set of facts, no matter how false. It then becomes easier to then turn mental somersaults to hold your opinion.
So, why do people believe in conspiracy theories? I think it is because people dislike uncertainty, because uncertainty is associated with danger.
Of course, there are and have been true conspiracies. For instance, the plot to assassinate President Lincoln, and other similar plots (for instance, a recent plot by weather forecasters to wash out the Columbus Day Parade (https://www.nytimes.com/1971/10/11/archives/rain-washes-out-columbus-march-first-cancellation-for-event-in-its.html).
But, the decisiveness fostered by the enemies of democracies (Iran, Turkey, Russia, China) and enabled by social media is making it very difficult for us to act in a unified way, the unity needed to meet today's many challenges.
Barry Lynn
