Saturday, March 29, 2014

Weather It Is (Optimistic?)

Good Evening:

For the last week or so we've been looking at the possibility of rain this week.  However, over the last day or so, the situation resolved itself unfavourably: we're looking at a storm passing by to our north as (the hoped for) high pressure area never positioned itself to feed the developing storm with unusually cold air located over Siberia.

Still, we're expecting rain to move down from the north tomorrow, before it peters out as showers over central Israel.

We see again the possibility of rain early next week, where the same hoped for scenario may play out.  But, again, there is no certainty here.

They say that the difference between a Jewish Pessimist and a Jewish Optimist is that the Pessimist says that things can't get any worse (in our case -- the rainy season will end without another good soaking), and the pessimist says that yes it can.

On the other hand, Israelis are the ultimate optimists (despite being Jewish).  Did you ever see Israelis cracking sunflower seeds? They crack and eat one at a time, with the optimistic expectation that at some point they will fill up on the little seeds.  Or, perhaps, this just shows how tenacious Israelis really are.  Having immigrated from America, I lack the requisite skill with the front teeth; I let my wife crack them for me.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, March 23, 2014

Weather It Is (A Day to Grasp)

Good Evening:

It was a touch warm today ahead of a weak storm system moving our way.

However, temperatures will cool off a bit as we head through the week, but will warm up again ahead of  strong area of low pressure moving through central Europe as we move in to the week following.

This system is a bit of a cold anomaly, and has the potential to bring rain early next week.

We'd spoken about possible rain late this week, but rain chances are now only small and rain amounts localised.

I am sitting at an award ceremony, where exemplilary schools from around the country are being honoured. We have children who enjoy a beautiful weather day in the out doors because it speaks of the promise of a life to come.  We celebrate the weddings to be, again because of the promise of a Torah home, and children who will grow up to be doctors, lawyers, social workers and educators.  So, why do our Palestinian neighbours, and northern Lebanese neighbours teach their children to be suicide bombers?  Why are there so many who can't see the sun shining!? A beautiful weather day is shared across borders, and the opportunity for a life of health, happiness, and growth is for all to grasp.

Barry Lynn

Friday, March 21, 2014

Weather It Is (Mixed Signals)

Good Afternoon:

I hope all met with success in the Jerusalem Marathaton.

Shall I begin an inauspiciosly named blog with the comment that there should be no change in the weather until about Tuesday of next week -- when there might then or might not be a change.

I'm listening to music sung by Nava Moshkori  (The White Rose of Athens).  It reminds me of the days of old, when men were men, women were women, and dogs were just dogs (and didn't demand a seat at the table).  Of course, just like we remember weather events as being bigger than they really were, my guess is that those days were not as glorious as they are made out to be.

Likewise, even though there appears to be no apparent signal, rain chances will actually be on the increase during the latter half of next week. We see many of the GFS ensemble members showing rain, associated with possibly a return to either tropical weather or even more winter weather.  What we don't see (for the moment) is any return to real winter cold.

Interpreting this weather pattern is not so easy, but neither is interpreting wifely requests.  For instance, "did you finish in the kitchen" actually means: "I'm waiting for you to finish the kitchen!" This is after several hours of cooking and several rounds in the dishwasher.  A husband can't work faster than his kitchen appliances can help him.

Likewise, I can't predict any better than the forecast models I use.  One of them (the colder forecast) shows an active southern Jet stream pattern with high pressure building over central Europe, helping to spin up our end of the month storms.

We'll have to wait and see. We'll also have to wait and see if the fine weather will help the bees fertilise the cherry trees, and if this will be a cherry laden year.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Thursday, March 20, 2014

Weather It Is (Undecided)

Good Afternoon:

The weather this week is certainly nice.  In fact, I haven't received single e-mail (letter, or phone call) of complaint.

Basically, we're not in a low pressure pattern or strong high pattern; we're somewhere in between. Of course, considering the political discourse in this country and between ours and the US, it sort of nice to be anywhere but somewhere.  In any case, I think that it is the responsibility of the Defence Minister to speak up, even if he is not being politically correct.

Looking further ahead (or, going farther out), we see that at some point a decision should be made (less winter or more).  Fortunately, for our rain deficit, we are seeing the potential  (but not likelihood) for a late winter storm as low pressure moves across the Mediterranean as high pressure again builds northward into central Europe.  The high pressure system would server as a source of cold air to help spin up this storm as it arrives on our doorstep.

Stay tuned,

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Weather It Is (Marathon Weather)

Good Afternoon:

It should be mild with light winds in Jerusalem on Friday.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Fights Back)

Good afternoon:

I learned in my undergraduate biology classes that a mixture is always better than the alternative.  That is, "inbreeding" is a bad thing because recessive and sometime dangerous genes get passed on and together can express themselves in detrimental ways.

Would one say the same about the weather?  In the last couple of weeks we had a terrible and prolonged dust storm.  This was followed by a Sharav, which was accompanied by an atmospheric river of water (from the Atlantic ocean)  that led to widespread rain and flooding from the north to the south.  This storm was then transformed into a cyprus low pressure area as cold air was drawn southward around high pressure centred over central Europe, bringing more rain, which ended in a period of snow.

By the way, the most likely reason it didn't snow more is because of the difference between an occluded low pressure area and a developing low pressure area.  I will try to touch more on this later.

Looking ahead, we see that more winter-like temperatures will be mixed with our springtime sunshine.  In fact, we're looking at a possible end of the month rain storm, and even more winter like weather as well (consistent with a previous blog mentioning a more winter like signal among the ensemble members).  How rainy or how cold? It's not yet clear, but conditions are favourable for a late winter spell.

As I've mentioned, Israel is a mixture of different cultures, and there are definite advantages to this.  One disadvantage, though, is eating food with a spice called Tumeric.  It always seems to get on my clothes, but rarely on those of my wife (who is a native Israeli, with parents are from a middle eastern culture who thrive on it).  The problem is that it is very hard to get out, but is bright yellow, so everyone knows what you've been eating, or at least everyone wonders what you've been eating.  Fortunately, I found that Tide detergent will get it out, and no longer wash my clothes several time, intermixed with a doses of lemon juice and vinegar, and a bit of sunshine.

On a final note. I mixed good old Stony Field farm yogurt with an Israeli children's yogurt, and I got a very good batch of yogurt.  Apparently, these different bacteria from different parts of the world thrive together, and in this case a mixture is a very good thing.

Barry Lynn

Friday, March 14, 2014

Weather It Is (Cold Enough, But)

Good Morning:

It is definitely cold enough for snow. However, this isn't enough.  

The phrase: "If you build it, they will come" (from Field of Dreams) doesn't really help unless they step up and play ball.

So, what are we waiting for: a good thunderstorm that will drag the cold air down with it -- but as time passes this seems less and less likely.

Well, at least we had a very good rain!

Weather It Is (Both Cats Went Out)

Good Late Night:

Since 2:10 A.M, the dog requested to go out (I obliged).  Now, it's 3:10 A.M and both cats have headed out into the night. It's been days since the cats agreed to go out.  My guess is that these animals know something I don't.  They're ignoring the "macro" conditions (i.e, very cold temperatures forecast aloft for the early morning), to brave the outdoors, apparently without any fear of being a tad cold around the ears.

Extremely temperatures are still forecast to occur in the early morning, and areas of precipitation are located to the south of us, east of Ashdod, and since the hour I first woke up: precipitation has developed over the sea.  And now, I think I see some ice pellets mixing in with the rain, which has just started.

Yet, without a real good dose of heavy precipitation (i.e, convective precipitation with, perhaps, a good dose of thunder), it just won't get cold enough to at least whiten the ground.  We're not talking about a large amount of snow, we're just discussing the possibility of a last winter "Hurrah" after what started out so promising (and actually did happen at the time).

One of the cats just came back in.

We'll see.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, March 13, 2014

Weather It Is (Special Weather Statement)

Good Evening:

Predicting the weather this night presents a bit of a conundrum.   Here's what we know: i) heavy rain will develop and cover most of the centre and north of the country.  ii) Extremely cold air will arrive aloft (at 500 mb) towards midnight, and then filter its way towards the ground.  iii) Temperatures at 700 mb are suppose to now arrive below the "magic" -10 C, indicating ideal temperatures for snow formation in the lower-middle atmosphere.  iv) Reflective (pink) clouds have been observed, indicating the clouds are filling with snow. Yet, temperatures near the ground will likely remain above freezing -- unless it snows.

Our models are indicating that surface temperatures should remain just above freezing.  Yet, this seems to be a case where brains should outwit brawn.  Not once did I see such cold temperatures at 500 mb without a good period of snow -- snow heavy enough to cool the lower atmosphere to stick (i.e, accumulate).  Still, I don't necessarily feel comfortable with this forecast because a degree (or even half a degree) could make a big difference.

To be safe, we're issuing a winter weather advisory for the higher elevations in the centre and north, with a winter storm warning for the Hermon.

The precipitation should become heavy at times during the night, and continue into the morning.  Lighter amounts of precipitation should continue into the late morning, before ending as showers in the afternoon.  Temperatures should warm enough in the morning at some point to melt any snow that falls, but we expect locally icy roads.

I'll head off to sleep tonight (hopefully, without any missiles flying overhead) -- I really don't know how the government can tolerate a situation where missiles, not snowflakes fall from the sky.

Purim Samaech,

Sincerely,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Teetering on the Edge)

Good late morning:

The latest forecasts are in and they shows strong indications for snow early tomorrow morning (Friday), perhaps lasting into early afternoon.  However, the surface temperatures are still forecast to be too warm to allow for a substantial accumulation.  Still, we expect some (but can't say for sure how much) accumulation in Gush Etzion and other similarly high areas, especially during periods of heavier precipitation.  In fact, our model shows a very light accumulation.

After a week or more build-up, we'll just have to wait and see how the final act in our Purim-Spiel plays itself out.

Just a note:  the roads can become quite slippery when snow covers them near freezing temperatures.

We should catch a weather  break for Purim, except for a late rain on Shushan Purim.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Some Explanation)

Hi:

(What are "mb" and what is an "ensemble?")

mb are abbreviation for millibars.  Near the surface (or rather sea-level), the pressure is around 1000 mb (lower in storms, higher in fair weather).  We often look at the weather at 850 mb (1500 meters), 700 mb (around 3000 meters up), and at 500 mb (5000 meters) to better understand or predict changes in the weather.  Certain temperatures or moisture indicate the possibility of thunderstorms and/or snow.

An ensemble is multiple forecasts of the same event (or day ahead), where each forecast is (often) made by changing the initial conditions (observations) a little bit, to see how our lack of knowledge affects the forecast.  When there is very little spread (standard deviation) among the ensemble members, it means that the signal in the forecast is more important than any error in our knowledge.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Weather It Is (Something Strange in Hooville)

Good Evening:

Just to mention: on the 22nd of this month one of the ensemble members is predicting temperatures at 500 mb at about -32 C, and at 700 mb below -15 C, and at 850 mb near -4 C.

This is very strange -- especially because it is so late in the season.  We should not be seeing any possibility (even small) of a major snow storm the last week in March!

Early next week, another storm should bring a chance of rain late Monday and Tuesday.

Regarding this Friday's storm, it looks like snow will fall, but that temperatures will be very close to freezing when it reaches the ground. So, we'll leave any discussion of snow accumulation for later.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Things, and Possibly (now likely) White Flakes)

Good Evening:

(A quick update: looking at the 6 GMT output, the probability of snow for Friday afternoon has risen since our last update,  and is leaning towards an accumulation in the higher elevations of the centre).

We're moving towards the end of the week, and I wanted to bring to your attention something unique about our little country. First, it's good to know that the EU Ambassador Lars Faaborg-Anderse believes that "Israel is a society in which the rule of law is deeply enshrined, a country in which human rights are cherished..."(J. Post, 12/3/14).  In fact, the suggestion (or accusation) that Israel is an Apartheid state is laughable (but the bigger the lie, the easier to swallow).  Actually, Israel is a country with many different climates (13 I heard), and probably even more different types of cultures and religions (or religious variations).

In many cases, there are plenty of mixed marriages (further stirring the amazing pot that is Israeli society), and I believe I have one.  You see, Sephardim (at least on my wife's side) have quite different social mores than Ashkenazim (at least on my side).  Since that fateful marriage day, I've learned that "thank you" means "no thank you" (and, yes, vice versa). I learned that one never gets up to escort a guest from the house. Since, I am uncomfortable with this, I often find myself with one half of my "Tuscik" on the chair and the other half off, or one foot at the door and one foot under the table.  I am not sure if this is just peculiar to us, but my wife prefers to say what she is going to do, rather than telling me what to do (even though, she is really asking me to do it).

Being a country of multiple climes, we often find our weather patterns a mixture of different weather types.  For the last week I've been writing about a possible snow at Purim time. Actually, I've also been writing about how snow at Purim time is actually very unusual (even though my wife still insists that it is not -- so perhaps I'm wrong).  We actually know with good certainty that it is going to rain and that it will get colder, but we also know that our window of opportunity for snow is just 12 hours sometime later on Friday or Friday night.  At this time, temperatures at 500 mb might fall as low as -27 C, indicating that the atmosphere will be quite cold enough for good snow from 700 mb upwards).

We also know that the vertical profile of moisture and temperature will be a mixture of relatively milder, sea-air near the surface and colder (more polar air) filtering down from above.  Exactly how this all works out will determine if we'll have a small accumulation of snow on Friday or Friday night.   Personally, I'd like enough snow to take a quick ski across Efrat!

I hope to be able to say tomorrow with greater certainty.

Sincerely,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (An Icy Night, and Much More to Come?)

Good Late Night:

A good clap of thunder (or two...) will wake up any good meteorologist from a sound sleep, and I am no exception. But, to get up (and stay up) after letting the dog go out?  This seems a bit too much.

On the other, I just noticed that temperatures dropped more than 3 C from the forecast overnight lows in the very strong thunderstorm that just occurred. It was a chilly 3 C.  This means that we're getting good mixing down from upper levels (500 mb), where temperatures are averaging about - 25.25 C. (Even lower temperatures should occur Wednesday night.)

These cold temperatures are associated with a strong winter storm that should provide us with ample late winter rain, which should finally taper off just in time for Purim day (or the day after, really).

In the meantime, we are getting stronger indications (and my apologies to the person who called me about Friday and I insisted "no" chance (of snow); actually it was 5%) that Friday evening is going to be even colder aloft than previously thought (perhaps as low as - 28C, but on average the forecast low temperature is almost -27 C).

The fly in the ointment is that we're in March, and temperatures at 850 mb are suppose to be just above freezing.  This is indicated by a relatively high thickness between 500 mb and the surface (by thickness I mean the height at the pressure level of 1000 mb subtracted from the height at the 500 mb pressure level).  Still, this type of situation, relatively warm at the surface and very cold aloft is conducive to thunderstorms (and thunderstorm snow).

Will it be a white Purim?  The plot thickens, but it grows more interesting by the day.

By the way, Purim itself may be followed immediately by another bout of rain (but again, we see a lack of upper level support for this event, as we actually originally saw for Friday night's possible snow).

I'm tired, so good night.

Monday, March 10, 2014

Weather It Is (Rumours Persist)

Good Evening:

We're looking at a rather large and complex storm heading our way Tuesday night and lasting into Friday.  Temperatures will actually be cold enough for what we consider snow conditions at 500 mb; however, the middle-lower (700 mb) and lower (850 mb) atmosphere should be warm enough to melt snow that forms.  Still, icy graupel/hail may briefly stick to cars, and the rain and wind should be quite heavy through the period.

Speaking of rain, we had 1.63 inches over the last two days.

Temperatures will be chilly on Wednesday and Thursday, and then fall again on Friday.  The big "if" is what happens on Shabbat.  The most likely scenario is that rain will come to an end late Friday.  However, cold air should continue to filter in at the 850 and 700 mb levels and may actually approach or fall below freezing at the surface in high elevations.  Right now, we see a 15% chance that these cold temperatures will be supported by even colder temperatures aloft -- cold enough for a good late season snow.  On the other hand, there is an 85% chance that Shabbat will just dawn chilly and damp, and possibly end our winter on this note.

So, the rumours are right to persist, but don't buy your Purim snow costumes based just on a rumour.

Sincerely,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Rumours)

People keep asking me if it will snow on Purim. 

At the moment, the chance of snow on Purim has decreased from 25% last night to 5%.

This means that 1/20 times that someone starts a rumour like this it will snow, or once every 20 Purims, which is about what people told me.

Of course, I will be watching for any change, and of course hoping for a change.  However, I  don't have any sway with how things turn out.

Barry Lynn
P.S. However, I recommend to see the next update.

Sunday, March 9, 2014

Weather It Is (A Pre-Purim Surprise?)

Good Evening:

The rainy weather should take a "break" on Monday and Tuesday, but should return with another round of winter rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.  This looks like a prolonged rain event, with rain possibly lasting into Thursday.

Interestingly, 1/4 of the ensemble members finish the week off with a turn to even colder weather and the possibility of snow!

However, this may be our forecast model's idea of a Purim "Spiel."  So, expect rain, and then lets wait and see how the percentages roll.

Sincerely,

Barry Lynn

Saturday, March 8, 2014

Weather It Is (Ah, Winter)

Good Evening:

The other day my wife asked me if it would rain next week (which is now this week).  I said that it will be very warm on Shabbat and that, indeed, that it might just, perhaps, rain next week.  She preceded to make up a song: "maybe rain, maybe snow; who knows?"  She sang it more than once because she likes to sing. Now, one might think that I just might get some respect around here -- after all this is my home!  The good news is that my children do ask me for a weather forecast from time to time, so not all is lost.

Lest you think the sky was falling, or will be falling, those were raindrops (albeit dirty raindrops) that soddened our shabbat clothes. The amazing thing was that I saw people wearing coats almost within seconds of the rain, meaning that there are true winter believers in Efrat.  This is very heartening.

We're on track for a heavy rain event to move south to north tonight as moisture rotates around an approaching low pressure trough.  It looks some of this moisture is streaming in all the way from the Atlantic ocean. The trough will intensify again tomorrow afternoon and bring another bout of rain to cover the whole country into Monday morning.  When all is said and done, it won't feel like winter anymore!

Looking further ahead, another area of low pressure should approach mid-week, and temperatures should continue to cool down and actually approach the freezing level at 850 mb (or about 1500 meters above sea level).  Feeding the low pressure area is high pressure still located over western Europe. There are a couple of ensemble members that actually bring us below freezing, but the most likely scenario is just another rain event. This time the moisture will approach over the sea from the northwest as the cold air spills in.

Looking to Purim day: temperatures should moderate ahead of low pressure approaching from the west, and we actually squeeze in a couple of pleasant days.

Sincerely and Happy Purim,

Barry Lynn

Friday, March 7, 2014

Weather It Is (Very Warm, But...)

Good Morning:

The warmest weather of the year is on tap for Shabbat day, but it will be followed by a sharp return to more normal (if not below normal) winter temperatures.

High pressure over western Europe will strengthen and funnel cold air into developing low pressure over the eastern Mediterranean.  This will intensify the low pressure area (as the trough of cold air builds south and eastward), spinning up our first winter storm of significance since last December.

Rain is expected in the Arava on Sunday and should spread throughout the country during the night and Monday.  A second low should approach during the mid-week period and bring more rain.

Right now, we don't see any phasing between the colder northern Jet and our Mediterranean storm track. So, while winter may start (or is it end?) wet and cold, it probably won't end white.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Sunday, March 2, 2014

Weather It Is (Purgatory)

Good Afternoon:

It's early March and we're inundated with dust.  Moreover, the same dusty weather pattern will continue for at least the next few days as dust is advected from Africa in the eastern Mediterranean. It seems like Purgatory out there!

Last week we spoke about the possibility of rain early in the week.  Unfortunately, it seems that this year that our possibilities for rain always fall on the light side (if at that).  The weather pattern evolves towards dryness, rather than the alternative wet "solution/forecast" in the long range ensemble.

If this is actually true, then the long range forecast is not representing some of the physical processes that encourage the atmospheric circulation to maintain our dry weather.  In fact, the storm that is approaching us today (with dust and some clouds) is forecast to retrograde back to the west over the next few days.

We still see a piece of the Azore's high breaking off and moving into a position off to our northwest (7 to 10 days out).  If this happens, then we may finally get a break with a late rain.  But, we might not.

Barry