Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Weather It Is (More than Mischief)

Good Afternoon:

The weather patterns continue to oscillate in an early fall -- rather than summer -- pattern.

In fact, today's weather is really phenomenal. The temperates are mostly in the 20s (at least in the central mountains) and there is a cooling (and fresh) breeze.

Of course, the fresh breeze is good for getting extended flight times on any rockets fired from Gaza.  Hopefully, this won't be an issue too much longer -- provided that we arrive at the end point of this conflict.

For those of you familiar with "The Cat in The Hat:" After making quite a mess, we read "And then he was gone with a tip of his hat," leaving the two kids to wonder what just happened and what would happen next: "Then our mother came in, and she said to us two, 'Did you have any fun?'  Tell me. 'What did you do?'.

And Sally and I did not know what to say. Should we tell her the things that went on there that day."  Should we tell her about it? Now, what SHOULD we do?  Well... What would YOU do, if your Mother asked YOU?"

I can imagine that this is how our Prime Minister felt upon receiving President Obama's demand for an immediate ceasefire, but in this case,  it was the President (who may have the best of intentions), but whose decisions and policies are really no better -- if not worse in result than the  "Cat in the Hat."

Of course, the kind and type of mess he and Secretary Kerry would like to make would only need to be cleaned up with the sweat and blood of our children.  The media may call them "soldiers," but they are our children.

Don't expect the first couple of weeks in August to bring any summertime weather.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Weather It Is (A Flash and Rumble)

Good Evening:

Just a follow-up.

I meant to mention that the blog was inspired by a conversation I had with a fellow neighbour in Efrat. Interesting that just this morning, we read that the US warns us against toppling Hamas.


Agency head Michael Flynn warns against the dangers of toppling Hamas, saying what may replace them could be even worse. (http://www.timesofisrael.com/day-20-idf-toll-rises-to-42-hamas-breaches-truce-resumes-rocket-fire-kerry-heads-home/)

To put things in perspective, think of this joke.  What do you call a person who eats vegetables, answer: a Vegetarian.  What do you call a person who eats people, answer: an humanitarian.  The US presents its policy as being humanitarian in nature, or for democracy, but really, it is just about interests.

With increasing atmospheric stability, the skies should free themselves of any clouds and the sun should beat down like a summer sun.  Yet, the temperatures are not really all that warm, and it is almost possible to stand outside under the baking summer sun and ask yourself: is this really summer?  Who turned down the thermostat?

With increasing atmospheric stability, it is also possible to hear far away rumbles of thunder -- I mean artillery.  And, with a flash of insight I finally understood why Mr. Obama/Kerry keep pushing us into a ceasefire.  In fact, if you look back over the years, there are many wars that Israel (now we) fought, only to have them end prematurely in a ceasefire, before any real winner was apparent. Imagine how history would have transpired if Germany and Japan had simply agreed to a ceasefire, rather than total surrender.   Well, just think of North Korea and North Vietnam, and think of Hizbollah and Hamas.

Who pushed us into the various ceasefires: The United States.  Why did they do it? Because our interests (total victory) do not always overlap with their own (interests in the Arab world).  Obama/Kerry want us to agree to a ceasefire because they don't want us to defeat Hamas, who are the dependent of Qatar, with whom the US just signed an  $11 Billion arms deal http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-and-us-openly-at-odds-over-gaza-ceasefire-terms/).  Moreover, if it is not Hamas ,then it is some other Arab country they have relations with.  Don't get me wrong: the US is our ally, but only in the sense where our common interests overlap.

The result is that we are consigned to years of perpetual war.

This is what makes the cabinet's unanimous decision to reject the ceasefire so significant.  It may not be the first time, but it is the most obvious instance of the Israel government (and the Jewish people) standing up and saying "no."  Of course, no country is ever truly independent, but we've taken our first true step forward towards a new and different future.

Tzorot Tovot.

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Weather It Is (Missile-Hail and Delta Flights Suspended)

Good Evening:

All Delta Flights to Israel have been suspended.  

Apparently, missile-hail fell from Missile-Storms near the airport.

Better safe than sorry, of course.

Is it ironic that we didn't need to wait to give away Judea and Samaria to close the airport?

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Yesterday's Weather and the Probability of More)

Good Afternoon:

Yesterday was day full of potential.   The atmosphere was quite moist up to 700 mb, and temperatures were conditionally unstable up to about 550 mb.  By conditionally unstable, I mean that a passing perturbation in the atmosphere should and would have been enough to cause a strong convective storm.  Alas, it was not to be.

Radar showed some light showers over the country yesterday, and as for the probability of more weather -- at least of interest -- we don't see any.  True, temperatures will stay relatively cool during the next couple of weeks, but temperatures aloft should be warming up (that is, the atmosphere will be stabilizing).

There was a welcome and cool breeze that sprung up at the burial ceremony for Yuval Haiman.  It seemed to come out of no where, but there must have been a passing tropical shower -- that evaporated and cooled the atmosphere. The cool breeze spoke about the potential of life, to live life like a a flower of our good deeds.  In this case, a potential unrealised.

We think of weather as being about prediction, but it is really about probability.  We may hide the probability when we speak, but no forecast is really useful without a measure of certainty.

I remember that when we left Gaza that there were those (myself included) who said that this would lead to much greater danger for us than before.  I figured that a few missiles-showers would become missile-storms.  In fact, I placed a very high probability on this happening.  Apparently, others lived on a hope.

After all, Hamas as an ideology that is not really about politics or land, it's about the ability and willingness to murder.  The Palestinian issue is, actually, a side-show to their Raison d'ĂȘtre. This is why I find President Obama and Sect. Kerry's idea to return to the 2012 ceasefire agreement so laughable (or sad).  Agreements are between gentlemen; otherwise they have very little value (and are easily broken).  Insanity is doing the same wrong thing over again and hoping that the results will be different (this time). I hope we will not act thus; Mr. Kerry should be shown the door.

While listening to all the tributes to Yuval, I was reminded of a song (The Answer is Blowing in the Wind). There is not much we can do, except to accept the fact that Yuval gave his life so that we could live -- because there are too many people in the world who don't know that too many people have died.

From:http://www.bobdylan.com/us/songs/blowin-wind

Here's part of the song.

How many times must a man look up
Before he can see the sky?
Yes, ’n’ how many ears must one man have
Before he can hear people cry?
Yes, ’n’ how many deaths will it take till he knows
That too many people have died?
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind
The answer is blowin’ in the wind

Barry Lynn

Friday, July 18, 2014

Weather It Is (The Winds Grow Stronger)

Good Morning:

It's 20 C at a quarter to ten in the morning.  The normal high temperature in Jerusalem is 30 C.

Taking a look at the weather maps, we see that an unusually cold (even for this summer) air mass will be moving in during the next two to three days.  Temperatures will fall at all levels of the atmosphere, indicating increasing instability -- meaning, that we'll have to watch out for summer showers, even a heavier shower.

Of course, rain showers are better than missile showers, or even missile-storms.

Looking at comments on The NYT's site, Jon of Pittsburgh  wonders if the dignity of "resistance" is better than the peace that comes with defeat.  Michael of Austin is ashamed to be a Jew.

Here's my answer to Michael.  Unfortunately, the road to peace travels through the travails of war, and we want peace.  Is Michael also ashamed of his own country for winning its war of independence, the Civil War, World 1 and II, etc?  I'm proud to be Jewish and I'm proud to be Israeli.  I am proud that instead of "taking it on the chin," or "turning the other cheek," we can actually (finally -- hopefully) take matters into our own hands and defeat Hamas. Maybe he reads The Times too often?

How will we know we've won? When there are no-more Hamas spokesman to say "bring it on."
As for losing? Losing will give the Gazans a chance (like the Germans of the past) to build something better, more civilised, and more humane.

So, peace will not come by returning to the previous status quo, as suggested by Pres. Obama and Secretary Kerry, but through total and unambiguous victory.  Imagine if there were "Defensive Shield?"

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Weather It Is (Winds of War)

Good Evening:

Today was a bit of respite (at least) weather wise.  The previous days had seen very strong winds accompanied by missile-storms. The missile-storms developed over Gaza and swept eastward on the strong winds, blanketing much of the country in a hail of shrapnel and other asundery missile parts.

It was interesting that our Prime Minister each day used the word "intensifying" -- to indicate our supposed response to this recent (but actually not so recent) threat.  One wonders when our own storm will come, or if we will simply turn it out to sea.

In other weather news, there will be a strange (summertime) confluence of events early next week.  Temperatures all drop sharply at all levels of the atmosphere, indicating the approach of a trough of low pressure from the northwest. There are some indications that this low pressure area will be accompanied by patches of moisture at both 850 and 700 mb, which may be enough to kick off some summer-time showers.

Based on Jodi Rudoren's  New York Time's article today
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/16/world/middleeast/after-brief-lull-in-gaza-crisis-airstrikes-resume.html?

Israel has the strong advantage in this war -- because Israel has an lopsided advantage in armaments. Mr. Rudoren's article seems to imply that this is somehow unfair. However Hamas has a lopsided "advantage" in the desire to kill us, and it not unfair that we don't easily oblige them.

Barry Lynn


Sunday, July 13, 2014

Weather It Is (Popular? Let's change that!)

Good Morning:

They say that success breeds more success, but it also breeds popularity.

By this notion, I must be one of the most popular meteorologists in Israel -- or at least my company could win a popularity contest.

I mean, what a forecast! It was hot and now its cool, and this is what I wrote about just a few days before.

(By the way, there will be a slight chance of showers as temperatures plummet at 850 mb over the next couple of days.  Moreover  once again, we see that the weather pattern resembles more fall than summer, and that this weather pattern should persist for the next two weeks.)

I write this tongue in cheek (or course), but you might note the headline:http://www.timesofisrael.com/deaths-in-gaza-attacks-on-israel-spell-rising-popularity-for-hamas/

So, you see that Hamas is becoming quite popular -- even though by normal evaluative methods they are losing.  Let's be sure to change this!

Here is my suggestion for how to change the game (remember, I have a Ph.D in Environmental Studies and the Atmospheric Studies -- not warfare).

1) Continue bombing them from the air, and continue with limited (when necessary) ground incursions.

2) Turn off their electricity and water.  Make Hamas do something besides produce missiles with our own electricity (let alone water and building materials).  Make their "voter constituents" less likely to support them. The absurdity of this situation is beyond description.

(When the world complains, just remind them that the UN (i.e, most of the world) does not recognise Gaza as part of Israel and hence we are not responsible for providing electricity and water to areas outside our borders).

3) When they hold press conferences proclaiming this or that military victory, kill them (with a targeted strike).  How better to discredit them?

4) Do the little things (continue assassinations) and targeting of any locations that might be new missile locations before they are used).

This is not a complete list, you are welcome to write with your suggestions.

Barry Lynn

Friday, July 11, 2014

Weather It Is (Break Down -- And Acts of God)

Good Afternoon:

The weather should quickly warm for Shabbat, but then cool off quickly the day after.  In fact, it won't feel at all like summer, and we might be left to wonder if the missiles flying asunder portend a rainy winter.  In fact, looking at the 700 mb and 500 mb levels shows an undulating wave pattern that may resemble by early next week the weather of fall than summer.  (I should mention the slight chance of showers as the cold air moves in on Sunday and Monday.)  It seems like our normal, summer weather patterns are breaking down, to replace, like the political situation, with instability.

If you'll beggar my pardon, I'd like to bring up a point.  There is a place in the US called Tornado Alley.  There are over time more frequent and intense tornados than in other locations.  This means that periodically folks need to run to their safe room (or hide in their bathtub).  However, the possibility of Tornados are usually predicted in advance -- meaning that preparations can be made beforehand -- and warning times are as large as 10 minutes.  A stressful situation, for sure, but somewhat manageable.

Here, in contrast, missiles appear from a clear sky with only seconds warning.  True, people can go to their safe rooms (even if they have to jump out of a moving car), but this is where the similarity ends. Besides, the obvious that missile attacks are acts of Man, not God, there is no possible way to plan or to carry out normal activities.  The fear of death, instead, hangs over all at all times. Our government has failed its citizens for the simple reason that it keeps doing the same thing over again -- agreeing to ceasefires that are always broken by the other side (Hamas, Islamic Jihad, etc), and then tolerating intermittent missile attacks (as if, as I said, they are acts of God not man) -- attacks that bring constant fear, if not actual injury or death.

People are saying that we can never win this war, and, in fact, Pres. Obama is offering to mediate a ceasefire.  Quite frankly, ceasefires are for losers, and we lose every time we agree to one.  Hamas represents an evil ideology whose goal is to kill all of the Jews and impose Radical Islam on "Palestine," and eventually, with other similar ideologies, on the rest of the world.  They may not be as powerful as the Nazis once were, but they are as evil.  And, like the Nazis, they can and must be destroyed.  We are the Vanguard to do so.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Weather It Is (Coming Around Again, Of Course)

Good Evening:

Our weather refuses to settle down.  It's cool, it's warm, and then cool again.  It's the cycle of weather!  In fact, there could even be a few showers early next week.

How did we get here?  Let's be honest.  We left Gaza -- big mistake -- unless you like missiles raining on us like summer showers.  Then, in 2008 (Cast Lead), we ran to war, only to ran away from its finish (so Hamas had time to recharge its missile silos and improve its training -- just like an electrical storm recharges after a strike).  This was followed in 2011 by another war, where we again stood down -- in the hope that bad weather (i.e., Hamas) would not strike again.

Now, we are here again, and we just endured a storm of rockets.  Yet, we in the centre have it relatively easy.  The real bad "weather" is in the south, where periodic heavy missile barrages send our fellow citizens to their shelters, without sleep, and with frayed nerves.

I've written that our government has treated this problem like it's unsolvable -- like the inhabitants of "Tornado-Alley," who can only burrow deeper into the ground or under their mattresses.

Enough!  We need to fight like a Tornado or even a tropical storm -- and like either we must not stop until Hamas and their friends are completely destroyed.  And when the world asks for "restraint," we must close our ears -- because only complete victory can end our nightmare.

Barry Lynn

Monday, July 7, 2014

Weather It Is (Wild Swings)

Good Morning:

The weather just can't decide on a proper response to the calendar. Is it summer -- or not?  Watching the weather patterns at the different atmospheric levels shows quite an inconsistency.  Sometimes it warms aloft in response to the Indian Monsoon winds, and sometimes it cools off in response to unusual troughiness in the European weather pattern.  Sometimes it warms below when it cools aloft, and vice versa.  All I know is that the calendar says summer, but the weather pattern refuses to go along (and it won't for the next couple of weeks).

Our government doesn't seem to know how to respond to Hamas missile fire.  Sometimes we bomb empty buildings (hit them where it hurts!) or sometimes we make a "mistake" and this happens: Hamas accuses us of a serious escalation (see http://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-jets-strike-9-gaza-targets-overnight/).  Apparently, a number of Hamas members were killed overnight in response to airstrikes, whose purpose is to stop the rocket fire.  What rubbish!  Hamas (and friends) fire missiles that could at any time (but for Mazol) kill many people, and they accuse us of escalation! Where do they think these missiles go?  Are they like a cloud or storm that passes overhead, where one thinks: "out of site out of mind?"

Sometimes I think that we are out of our mind.  The other day I followed the wisdom of the Waze and took a right hand turn off route 90 and headed into Samaria. My Waze did not inform me that we would be passing through "no-mans" land, without a car to see for at least an hour. It didn't tell me that I'd end up at the entrance of Nablus!  But, come to think of it: who would think (let alone Waze) that simply driving through a pristine and beautiful area could potentially be so dangerous -- yet it is and we tolerate it.  (By the way, this is the most beautiful area, full of mountains, twisting roads, and plunging valleys).

Unfortunately, there are no easy answers (unless we invade, for example, Gaza and this isn't easy; perhaps we could settle this area!).

When the Palestinians kidnap or murder us, they hand out candies.  When we (God forbid) do the same to them, we engage in all sorts of denial -- because we're ashamed that any of us could be like them.

Barry Lynn

Friday, July 4, 2014

Weather It Is (Nice Weather But Not Much Else)

Good Morning:

After a bout of hot weather, it now looks like the temperatures will remain relatively cool for the next two weeks.

True, we do see a continued build up of heat at 500 mb (as the Indian Monsoon strengthens), but troughiness over central Europe is suppressing the high heat of summer eastward.  The hot air is there (over the desert region of Saudia Arabia), but it won't affect our weather.

The high heat of summer is making for short tempers.  Yet, I find it strange that the Arabs of east Jerusalem take a break for dinner and then go back to rioting. When a Jewish person is murdered, we have a funeral and mourn.  When an Arab person is murdered, they riot. In fact, they seem to prefer rioting over productive work or creativity.

Haneen Zoabi said: ""They're people who don't see any way to change their reality and they are forced to use these means until Israel will wake up a little, until Israeli citizens and society will wake up and feel the suffering of the other (JPOST)."  In other words, they are not terrorists.  The problem with this line of thinking is that kidnapping often has unintended consequences.  Besides, the tape of the phone call conversation actually shows that the kidnappers are murderers and that they enjoyed it.

On the other hand, we too have failed to reign in our own "terrorists."  Pricetag acts are not just vandalism.  True, they are relatively mild acts of terror.  The problem is that (like kidnapping), evil begets evil, and eventually one also slides down the slope to actual murder (which is what appears to have happened).  We don't want to be like them!

Barry Lynn